Nov 252014
 
 November 25, 2014  Posted by at 9:49 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  No Responses »
Stuck In Reverse And Descending Into Trauma

US Q3 GDP was revised up by the BEA to 3.89%, but that’s no longer what financial markets react to. They sit and wait for more QE somewhere on the planet to be doled out. Will Americans, if they see this at all, take those numbers, add them to the sweet drop in prices at the pump and spend what they save on more holiday purchases? I’m not saying I know, but I do see that US consumer confidence is

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Nov 252014
 
 November 25, 2014  Posted by at 10:47 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  1 Response »
Debt Rattle November 25 2014

• “We Are Starting To Break Down”: Why So Many Americans Feel Traumatized (Salon) • Buy the All Time High (James Howard Kunstler) • The Dismal Economy: 148 Million Government Beneficiaries (Lance Roberts) • The Mystery Of America’s “Schrodinger” Middle Class (Zero Hedge) • Overvalued, Overbought, Overbullish, Extremely Vulnerable Markets (Hussman) • Canada Moving Toward American-Style Inequality (CTV) • Oil Seen Dropping Another $30 by ICAP on Commodity, Dollar Cycle (Bloomberg) • Market Manipulation Of Oil Prices Backfires On Those

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Nov 242014
 
 November 24, 2014  Posted by at 2:33 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  7 Responses »
The 2014 Oil Price Crash Explained

This is an article by our good friend Euan Mearns at the University of Aberdeen. It was originally published here . In February 2009 Phil Hart published on The Oil Drum a simple supply demand model that explained then the action in the oil price. In this post I update Phil’s model to July 2014 using monthly oil supply (crude+condensate) and price data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA). This model explains how a drop in demand for oil of

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Nov 242014
 
 November 24, 2014  Posted by at 12:02 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  No Responses »
Debt Rattle November 24 2014

• Global Business Confidence Plunges To Post-Crisis Low (CNBC) • Pope Francis Warns Greed Of Man Will ‘Destroy The World’ (Daily Mail) • Record Numbers Of UK Working Families In Poverty Due To Low-Paid Jobs (Guardian) • New Abnormal Means Relying on Central Banks for Growth (Bloomberg) • Why We Can’t Afford Another Financial Crisis (Guardian) • PBOC Bounce Seen Short Lived as History Defies Bulls (Bloomberg) • China Rate-Cut Likely To Hurt Banks, Curb New Loans To Small Borrowers

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Nov 232014
 
 November 23, 2014  Posted by at 8:42 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  5 Responses »
Where Is China On The Map Exactly?

A lot of people these days vent their opinions on what’s happening with the Chinese economy, and the opinions are so all over the place they could hardly be more different. Which is interesting, to say the least. Apparently it’s still very hard to understand what does happen ‘over there’. And I don’t at all mean to suggest that I would know better than Morgan Stanley’s former Asia go-to-man Stephen Roach, or hedge funder Hugh Hendry, or Bob Davis, who

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Nov 232014
 
 November 23, 2014  Posted by at 11:30 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  No Responses »
Debt Rattle November 23 2014

• China’s Surprise Rate Cut Shows How Freaked Out The Government Is (Quartz) • The End of China’s Economic Miracle? (WSJ) • Hugh Hendry: “A Bet Against China Is A Bet Against Central Bank Omnipotence” (MW) • Central Banks in New Push to Prime Pump (WSJ) • Forget What Central Bankers Say: Deflation Is The Real Monster (Observer) • “I Am 100% Confident That Central Banks Are Buying S&P Futures” (Zero Hedge) • UK Chancellor Haunted By Deficit And £1.45

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Nov 222014
 
 November 22, 2014  Posted by at 9:31 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  13 Responses »
Who's Ready For $30 Oil?

How low can and will oil prices go, and what will the effects of those prices be? I bet you’ll have a hard time finding even just two people who have the same opinion on that. Not that it’s merely a matter of opinion, mind you, there are a great number of real life factors that come into play. It’s not an easy game. OPEC gets together next week, and it’s a cartel divided. Many if not most of its

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Nov 222014
 
 November 22, 2014  Posted by at 12:58 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  1 Response »
Debt Rattle November 22 2014

• Cheap Oil May Be A Sign Of Bigger Problems (MarketWatch) • Drilling Slowdown on Sub-$80 Oil Creeps Into Biggest US Fields (Bloomberg) • Russia to Cooperate With Saudis on Oil, Avoiding Output Cuts (Bloomberg) • Sell, Sell, Sell .. The Central Bank Madmen Are Raging (David Stockman) • What Record Stock Buybacks Say About Economic Growth (Zero Hedge) • Is China Building a Mortgage Bomb? (Bloomberg) • ‘China’s Economy Is Slowing Faster Than You Think’ (CNBC) • China Cut

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Nov 212014
 
 November 21, 2014  Posted by at 9:22 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  5 Responses »
Central Bankers, Fear and Other Bad Counselors

The original idea behind a central bank is that medium and longer term monetary policy should not be allowed to be held hostage by a short-term prevailing political wind, that an incumbent politician and his/her party should not be permitted and/or enabled to manipulate a nation’s currency for political gain. A central bank was (and still is officially) supposed to be independent of politics, to be a buffer between a society’s long term interests and a politician’s short-term ones. In

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Nov 212014
 
 November 21, 2014  Posted by at 12:47 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  1 Response »
Debt Rattle November 21 2014

• Americans, With Record $3.2 Trillion Consumer Debt, Borrow More (Guardian) • How Wall Street Banks Traded Lending For Oil, Gas And Nukes (MarketWatch) • Citigroup Ejected From ECB FX Group for Rigging (Bloomberg) • China ‘Triple Bubble’ Points To Long Slide For Commodities (MarketWatch) • ECB Dips Toe Into Dead Sea Of Rebundled Debt (Reuters) • ECB’s Draghi: ‘Strong Recovery Unlikely’ (CNBC) • Draghi Says ECB Must Raise Inflation as Fast as Possible (Bloomberg) • Greece To Submit Contentious

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