Mar 092012
 
 March 9, 2012  Posted by at 4:20 pm Finance
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Dorothea Lange Dead Ox Kids October 1939 “The Free children in doorway of their dugout home in Sunday clothes. Dead Ox Flat, Malheur County, Oregon”

 

It’s a good time re-visit a concept that I wrote about in late 2010 about market variability and systems failure, in a piece called A Fingerprint of Instability in Biology and Finance. The basic idea is that complex systems with an underlying fractal structure maintain some level of stability through localized and unpredictable variability, or what’s frequently referred to as an emergent “order out of chaos”. We see this dynamic clearly displayed in the cardiovascular system of humans – a healthy and stable heart is characterized by a chaotic beat interval pattern, while the heart of a person in ventricular fibrillation has collapsed into much more regular intervals.

 

 

The piece then described how this “fingerprint” has become evident in the realm of finance, focusing on the role played by high-frequency trading (HFT) among fewer and fewer market participants over the last decade in destroying the healthy variability that is characteristic of stable markets. That variability comes primarily from the natural differences in time horizons, asset allocations, investment expectations and trading volume that exist between market participants. The following excerpt briefly describes the “fractcal markets hypothesis” and gives an example of why market variability is such a critical aspect of market stability:

Related to Sornette’s work is the “fractal markets hypothesis“, which has been explained simply and coherently explained by the Australian economist Steve Keen in a slide lecture he produced and made available to the public. [8]. To summarize, this hypothesis suggests that the stock market exhibits deterministic chaos, making the short-term movements of prices extremely impossible to predict.

 

Similar to the healthy human heartbeat, the market achieves aggregate stability when investors have variable time horizons and expectations for their investments. In contrast, a speculative bubble is formed when many investors share the same expectations, imitating each other’s decisions to buy, and a market crash occurs when they all “rush for the exit” at the same time. [Slide 36]

 

The reason why variability of time horizons is so important for market stability can be explained with a simple example. Let’s compare an average day trader with a five-minute time horizon to an institutional investor (such as a pension fund) with a weekly time horizon from 1992-2002. The average five-minute price change in 1992 was -0.000284% (an overall “bear market”), with a standard deviation of 0.05976%. A six standard deviation drop (-.359%) in price during that time period could easily wipe out the day trader’s investment if it continues.

 

The institutional investor, on the other hand, would consider that drop a buying opportunity since weekly returns over the ten-year period averaged 0.22% with a standard deviation of 2.39%. The relatively large drop for the day trader is basically a non-event for the weekly trader’s technical/fundamental outlook, so the latter can buy the dip and provide stabilizing liquidity to the market.[Slides 38-39]

 

 

 

 

As the graphs above indicate, it is not just investors’ time horizons that have lost most of their variability with the inexorable rise of HFT, but also the differences in the number of stocks traded and the volume of those trades. And the situation has only become worse since that time. From mid-2011 to the first month of 2012 was a period marked by an unprecedented drop in volume for the S&P 500, while European markets have followed similar trends [As the No-Volume Market Churns]. This was also a period of great volatility in markets, with frequent episodes of systemic fear gripping these markets by their throats in the Fall of 2011.

Indeed, U.S. markets finally ended a gut-wrenching 2011 barely changed from where they started the year. The only thing investors gained from the tumultuous market that year was painful whiplash and heartache, as well as the prospect of even more instability in the future. One of the key drivers of this greatly decreased variability in the market over the last few years had been the unabated exodus of the retail investor, who could no longer endure the torture and had completely yielded to robotic traders.

 

 

As the graph from ZeroHedge shows above, U.S. domestic equity mutual funds had an outflow of $3 billion in the week of February 29, the largest in 2012, which brought the total outflows to $66 billion since November 2011. This trend is an important reminder of how market instability does not necessarily equal a market crash or collapse – all of these outflows occurred during a 20% rally in the market from its October lows. The growing instability (decreasing variability) simply weakens the potential for the system as a whole to absorb any triggers of widespread fear when they inevitably arrive.

People investing their capital through mutual funds and pension funds have traditionally been the source of variable time horizons, investment sizes and allocations for the equity markets, but they are all but out of the equation now. What’s perhaps more interesting is how even the limited variability provided by HFT market participants is now in the process of disappearing, as the robotic traders who can longer compete are weeded out. Boyd Erman speaks to how this issue has rapidly metastasized in Canada for The Globe and Mail:

The mystery of the vanishing stock trader

 

Retail investors, after gutting it out through years of awful returns, have finally fled. In a normal market, retail participation – Mr. and Mrs. Public trading their personal accounts – should be about 20 per cent. That plunged in November and December, traders say.

 

Professional portfolio managers are also sitting on their hands in cash, or moving to fixed-income or alternative investments. Take the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board as an example. In recent years, the pension fund manager has increased its holdings of bonds and what it calls inflation-sensitive assets (roads, bridges and other infrastructure). But its equity portfolio isn’t much bigger than it was five years ago.

 

There’s also the fact that regulation is becoming unfriendly, especially to hedge funds and proprietary traders. The amount of capital that banks can profitably hand to their trading desks to use is in decline.

 

Perhaps the most likely candidate for the drop-off is a decline in activity by the same high-frequency traders who helped boost volumes so dramatically in the preceding few years, and who now constitute roughly a third of the market by many estimates. So-called HFTs were drawn to Canada by incentives from markets such as the TSX, and by the opportunity to trade against investors big and small who weren’t wise to their tricks.

 

The market is suddenly tougher for HFTs. Some strategies have become so competitive that they are less profitable, regulation is become steadily tougher on them, and Canadian investors who were easy pickings for HFTs have learned to deploy countermeasures.

In the past, it has been easy for most people who work outside of finance to be misled by the short-term movement of markets; they see flashes of green in their occasional glimpses of the news and take them as a sign that the economy/markets are healthy and all is well with their portfolio. Since 2008, that perspective has obviously become more difficult to maintain over time, especially for those working within the field of finance and managing money on a daily basis. On top of that, the people (robots) that had become the only source of consistent volume for the markets, high-frequency traders, are now devouring each other.

Returning to the U.S. markets, Peter Chapman for Traders Magazine has also picked up on this underlying trend in the publication’s featured story entitled, Fear Factor.

Fear Factor: Volume Outlook Bleak as Investors Shun Stocks

 

On Wall Street, risk is suddenly a four-letter word. Retail investors can’t stomach it. Pension plan sponsors are allocating away from it.

 

 

“Our bread and butter is the retail investor,” Scott Wren, a senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors, one of the country’s four largest retail brokerages, told Bloomberg Radio recently. “They’re not jumping into the market. They’re not chasing it. Those who have been around for a little bit have been probably burned twice here in the last 10 years or so. They’re definitely gun-shy. They’re not believers. I’m not sure what it’s going to take to get them back in the market.”

 

Their financial advisers aren’t sanguine about the U.S. stock market, either. Only 44 percent of them plan to increase their clients’ allocations to U.S. stocks this year, according to a recent survey by Investment News. That’s down from 63 percent at the start of last year.

 

 

Pension plans, which own about 20 percent of all U.S. equities, are following individual investors out the door. As a result of the stock market meltdown, both public and private defined benefit plans are underfunded, as their assets have fallen below their liabilities. And because they must earn a return regardless of stock market conditions in order to pay retiree benefits, they are as worried as retail investors.

So, as noted in my original piece, the natural and variable heartbeat of most equity markets worldwide, and especially in the U.S., has been completely eradicated, leaving the “brain” starved of oxygen for much too long. There is no cognition, creativity or conscience left – only the mundane and de-humanized life of patients who are being kept alive by an assortment of machines. However, even the machines are running out of the energy required to keep them powered on, because liquidity is no longer enough for the big money players. The hope of witnessing the market bounce back to a healthy and stable life has been overtaken by the pain and agony of watching it die.

Home Forums Revisiting the Financial Fingerprint of Instability

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March 9, 2012 at 4:20 pm #8595

ashvin

Dorothea Lange Dead Ox Kids October 1939 “The Free children in doorway of their dugout home in Sunday clothes. Dead Ox Flat, Malheur County, Oregon”
[See the full post at: Revisiting the Financial Fingerprint of Instability]

March 9, 2012 at 10:02 pm #1482

jt

Good piece. Thanks.

March 9, 2012 at 11:32 pm #1487

el gallinazo

Well, I will not argue with much of the observational data presented in this analysis, but as the official tin foil wrapped dissident here, I once more must ask the question……….WHY? Front running has been illegal for decades. HFT is just a form of front running. The Squid’s proprietary desk ran a full quarter about a year ago without ever showing a loss for a single day according to ZH. That’s like someone betting on red or black on a roulette wheel and winning 90 times in a row. The odds against that are one divided by 2 to the 90th power which is something like the number of atoms in the Milky Way galaxy. (OK – I forgot to subtract the weekends -same difference.) Maybe there is a plan behind it ……you think? These guys might as well stick a syphon into the anal orifice of the S&P500 and just have some fat guy suck on it 6.5 hours a day. Why has the SEC permitted this? Why have they permitted these HFT trading companies to rent office space within 200 meters of the NYSE primary computer battery because now the speed of light has become a hindrance to these electron hustlers? I am sure they are keeping an eye on the latest superluminal neutrino research out of CERN. Now if that neutrino stuff pans out and they can send their orders backwards in time, then it would be frontrunning only imagined in a wet dream.

If everyone is leaving the stock market because they know the game is rigged, why has the market doubled since it bottomed out mid March 2009? Where is the money to keep Wile E. flying high coming from if everyone is fleeing like rats from a burning ship? Can pension funds survive on 2 or 3% long term fixed incomes when they need 6–7% to avoid a shrinking principal? Can your grandma? It’s a negative real yield even with the CoL numbers from the Bureau of Lying Statistics. Could the Fed possibly be trying to force these funds into high risk assets by their ZIRP policies? Who exactly owns the Fed, and which individuals own the banks that own the Fed?

Obviously the current policies will kill the market, so why are they permitted? Note that Watson, the computer that recently became the champ of Jeopardy has been hired by the Citi group, How will that effect the market? Can Watson donate unlimited cash to the political campaigns of his choice? Can he run for president if he can present an electronic certificate, still replete with Photoshop layers, that indicates that Hawaii was the location where he first achieved sentience?

It’s not enough for me to have this stuff related like listening to a baseball game over the radio, even when the announcer is top notch. I am a chem major and had thermodynamics pounded into my head, both macro and statistical, but I don’t buy that all this is some mindless unfolding of a human thermodynamic any more than if the first explorers where to arrive at the south pole to find a Model A Ford sitting there and concluding that was the outcome of polar geologic forces.

March 10, 2012 at 6:21 am #1496

Reverse Engineer

el gallinazo post=1087 wrote:

If everyone is leaving the stock market because they know the game is rigged, why has the market doubled since it bottomed out mid March 2009? Where is the money to keep Wile E. flying high coming from if everyone is fleeing like rats from a burning ship? Can pension funds survive on 2 or 3% long term fixed incomes when they need 6–7% to avoid a shrinking principal? Can your grandma? It’s a negative real yield even with the CoL numbers from the Bureau of Lying Statistics. Could the Fed possibly be trying to force these funds into high risk assets by their ZIRP policies? Who exactly owns the Fed, and which individuals own the banks that own the Fed?

Well, first off the Market can levitate with “everyone” leaving the “market” because Retail Investors, even Pension Funds do not have unlimited access to ZIRP money they can Borrow and then “Invest” in said Market. No matter how much money a TBTF institution loses, it can alway “double down” borrow twice as much as it just lost and bid back up the market with the new debt money. In Newzpeak, the Technocrats (Newzpeak for “Fascist”) call this process of perpetually giving new Debt Money to TBTF Banks “re-capitalization”.

The “Market” is and always has been a Rigged Casino, and even before HFT algos were Front Running the market, as long as you were high enough up the food chain you KNEW where the Big Money would flow and when. The “little investors” are suckered into the game as the Ponzi grows, but even if you are smart enough to see when its going to collapse its almost impossible to liquidate your assets if you have accumulated a lot of them. The TBTF don’t really worry about asset value collapse, because they can use their assets valued at par as collateral for new loans, and double down. Retail investor cannot do that, you actually gotta SELL your asets at whatever the market will bear to liquidate, and if its less than you paid for it and you bought it on margin, well you are just SOL there.

The folks closest to the Money Creation game never go broke even in a massive Ponzi collapse, simply because AFTER the collapse they are the first ones issued NEW money to gamble with. Why do you think that Money Creation has been so closely held as a private concern?

I know your questions as to who owns Da Fed are purely rhetorical ones, we all know who owns Da Fed, the House of Rothschild, the Rockefellers, the House of Morgan, Mellon, Kuhn et al, and in fact all these Corporate Entities are shells themselves with the controlling interest held through shadow trusts that are about impossible to trace out they go back so far in history.

Bottom line though, Money Creation depends on Resource Control. when you issue Credit to buy something, you must have control over the resource it buys. Since the Age of Oil began, Credit/Debt money has been issued based on control over the Oil resource. The resource is dissipating, as is the control over what is left of it. So even with the power of infinite Money creation, you cannot stay rich if there isn’t enough of the resource around the money is supposed to buy. That is a long term issue though, in the short term some folks at the top still have access to infinite money, while others are triaged out of their ability to access any of it. Read that the Greeks here first. They only get issued just enough to keep the Ponzi from completely collapsing in a Global Flash Crash.

Money that is created that is now NOT going into buying PIIGS debt is flowing toward equities, but really these are all Zombie Companies surviving on infusions of debt money. They are not organically productive in any sense. They’ll drop off the map here one by one as Konsumers no longer can afford to buy their products or services.

At some indeterminate point here you will get sufficient Political problems resultant from a collapsing real economy that the financial economy will “break”. We cannot control that through the political process, it is captured by the folks who control money creation in the first place.

The only way out is a complete crash, and its Coming Soon to a Theatre Near You.

RE

http://www.doomsteaddiner.org

March 10, 2012 at 8:47 am #1500

Golden Oxen

Why? What did you expect when the dollars link to gold was entirely severed? What did you expect when the banksters were allowed to mail everyone in the country a FREE credit card with usury rates of interest? What did you expect with the Goldman Suchs poster boy Rubin doing away with the Glass-Steagall act? What did you expect when the congress of the US granted total legal immunity to the former head of Goldman Suchs to save us from the financial horror created by him and his cohorts. Are you expecting the SEC and CFTC, or rather Sheriff Andy and Barney Fife to round up the Gambino family with squat teams and place them in the slammer, or are you expecting Eric Holder to roundup the banksters, like Corzine, Mozilo etc. to restore faith in our system. In all fairness I should mention they were successful in putting that financial terrorist Martha Stewart behind bars for selling a few thousand shares of a stock she purchased with her own money on an inside tip. She was charged with lying and shivers were sent down the spines of all the banksters when learning of her incarceration. We have the best government, and legal regulation, that corrupt fiat paper can buy, that’s why el gallinazo.

March 10, 2012 at 9:28 am #1502

Reverse Engineer

Golden Oxen post=1100 wrote: Why? What did you expect when the dollars link to gold was entirely severed?

Severing the Gold link was entirely necessary to continue on with the Industrial Paradigm, which inherently must be subsidized to exist. Steve on Economic Undertow explains this fairly well, though he convolutes the logic a bit so it is sometimes hard to follow.

I’ll try to simplify the concept some. If you take something like Gold which is relatively fixed in quantity and set it against something like Oil which constantly depletes through wastage, you get to a point where in order to keep buying the Oil you need ever greater quantities of Gold because the relative price changes. Anyone needing Oil gets bankrupted of their Gold in short order. so if you want to keep the Oil flowing, you have to issue Debt on the Oil and buy it with that, not Gold.

Had the Gold link not been severed in the 1970s, the Industrial Economy would have come to a grinding halt back then. The process of issuing debt on an unsustainable system is what allowed it to continue onward these last 40 years or so. A gold standard of hard money would not have salvaged the Industrial Economy, it just would have killed it a lot sooner. all to the good if that had happenned, but its ot what anybody really wanted, not even J6P. Certainnly not the Industrialists who were gaining more power than any King ever had in all of recorded histrory before this time.

Debt has allowed the subsidies for Industrial Waste and degradation of the environment to continue onward unchecked, which has certainly turned more of the Earth into a polluted Garbage dump than it was in 1970, but a Gold standard would not have stopped industrial society from crashing, it just would have crashed sooner. The real Value of gold is as much a chimera as the real value of fiat money. The main difference between the two is that one is relatively fixed in supply whereas the other is theoreticall infinite in supply. In both cases though, they are representing a real value which is shrinking relative to population numbers. the debt method allowed a continuation of the Industrial Paradigm, a Gold standard did not. Thus the fiat was chosen as the better method by those who run the Money show.

RE

http://www.doomsteaddiner.org

March 10, 2012 at 10:34 am #1503

Golden Oxen

@ Reverse Engineer. Then how did we make it to 1970.? What you are saying is you would have had to RAISE the price of gold and reward the people who did not fall for the paper con, in order to issue more bogus fiat. Since that would mean rewarding the wise thrifty saver and punishing the I want it now credit junkie, it is not comprehensible or convenient for you to honor your legal contractual promise and here we are today. That yarn you spun about saving the industrial paradigm by saying good bye to gold has to be satire. You will notice that the gold got to 1900 anyway, and the wise and thrifty who are still on the gold standard are doing okay, it is the fiat fools that are in all the trouble.

March 10, 2012 at 1:36 pm #1507

bluebird

Could one assume that the economic brain is being kept alive while the money people are deciding which asset organs they want for themselves? Then, these money people decide the plug gets pulled resulting in the implosion of the global Ponzi.

Unless, some black swan appears first to hasten the kaboom.

March 10, 2012 at 3:49 pm #1509

el gallinazo

Reverse Engineer,

We could become the Abbott and Costello of Ponzinomics. I see career opportunities here.

also

What is your over all take on the film. Thrive?

Golden Ox

Regarding your “Why” rant, the answer is (drum roll)……… none of the above. I was just opening the door and dusting off the Welcome mat. RE saw that clearly, but glad that you decided to step inside anyway.

“That yarn you spun about saving the industrial paradigm by saying good bye to gold has to be satire. You will notice that the gold got to 1900 anyway, and the wise and thrifty who are still on the gold standard are doing okay, it is the fiat fools that are in all the trouble.”

Your faith in gold would have some validity in previous eras when there was some continuity in the rule of law, at least in the USA. Yes, the laws were made for the elite, and yes they were ignored on many occasions, but there was some continuity. That is about to come to an abrupt end. If you haven’t noticed, the Bill Of Rights has been rescinded in the last couple of months. Ignorant and vicious TSA thugs are now stopping and searching people on the interstates backed up by regular army and local and state police who are taking orders from them. They actually call this Operation VIPR – no more Mr. Nice Guy! The brownshirts have been replaced by the blueshirts. Our blueshirts are grabbing people’s children by the genitals, for now just at airports, and taking naked pictures of the adults, to humiliate and condition the parents into shame and helplessness. It is psyops. They organize false flags operations in order to give a rational to these actions. For example, regarding the underwear bomber, several eye witnesses, including at his recent trial, spoke out that the airline did not wish to permit him on the airplane in Europe because he was lacking documents, but they were overruled and he was forced onto the plane by “men in dark suits” who appeared to have official status.

The object of the ruling clans is for total control over the planet’s resources and population. They do not really need money as they make it themselves from debt in whatever quantity they need and are the first to realize its intrinsic worthlessness other than as an illusory tool to manipulate people. Remember the infamous Meyer Rothschild quote from several centuries ago.

Their strategy is now in its end game. A primary interim goal is to impoverish the middle class. As the late, great Joe Bageant pointed out with both anger and sympathy in his two books, Deer Hunting with Jesus and Rainbow Pie, the underclass in the USA has been manipulated into self loathing and acting against its own interests for decades. It is the total castration and impoverishment of the middle class which is now necessary to lower any effective resistance to their end game. This will be accomplished both through economic and electronic manipulation as well as brutal and coercive physical force.

Which is the reason that the gold strategy will in the end prove ineffective to survival. You think it would have worked for a kulak (a middle class farmer) under Stalin?

March 10, 2012 at 5:35 pm #1511

Greenpa

el gall- “in previous eras when there was some continuity in the rule of law, at least in the USA.”

such a babe in the woods, you are. :-) Just in case you missed this one, there’s a story simmering out there (zero visibility at the NYT today- interesting) that has so much coverage I don’t see how it can go away. And lucidly illustrates the deep realities about the “rule of law” in the US. It’s seriously terrifying; I recommend really reading it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/nyregion/officer-sues-claiming-police-retaliation-for-truth-telling.html

I’m currently working my way through all the Astaire/Rogers movies I can get my hands on. They’re curiously satisfying, in all ways. Mostly set in the 1930′s; very relevant today. And they provide deep insights into reality; what is presented as “humor” is in fact, not; but reality; which is of course why audiences laugh at it.

Cops appear consistently, for humor. One little schtick, can’t remember which movie: Astaire has stolen Rogers’ purse- to retrieve his “lucky quarter”; which he had previously given her. She calls a cop- and tells him this man has stolen her money. Astaire is dressed in elite evening clothes, though it is morning. The cop tells Ginger, rudely, to move on, or he’ll arrest her for harassing a gentleman. Astaire is incensed on Rogers’ behalf, and berates the cop for mistreating a woman. The cop tells Astaire off- “Look, bud; guys like you PAY me to protect you from dames like her. Move on before I forget where my paycheck comes from.”

Approximately. Pure- unadulterated truth; widely understood long, long ago. Ha ha. And here we are- with our functional understanding of laws and their actual benefits having progressed astonishingly little.

How is the myth of the “rule of law” made so durable? Part of our collective societal hallucination, still so robust-

March 10, 2012 at 5:56 pm #1514

el gallinazo

Greenpa

Regarding “the rule of law,” during previous eras, I was hoping to express its relative nature in my comment. If, OTOH, you consider the situation in 1935 Ohio to have been identical to 1935 Russia under Stalin, then we might just have to disagree.

March 10, 2012 at 6:06 pm #1517

bluebird

@Greenpa – I first heard about the Adrian Schoolcraft saga on the radio program This American Life, The Right to Remain Silent,
Originally aired 09.10.2010

It was one of the best audios I have ever listened to…

http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/414/right-to-remain-silent

March 10, 2012 at 7:08 pm #1519

Reverse Engineer

@EG

Heeeeyyy Abbott!

Golden Oxen post=1103 wrote: @ Reverse Engineer. Then how did we make it to 1970.? What you are saying is you would have had to RAISE the price of gold and reward the people who did not fall for the paper con, in order to issue more bogus fiat. Since that would mean rewarding the wise thrifty saver and punishing the I want it now credit junkie, it is not comprehensible or convenient for you to honor your legal contractual promise and here we are today. That yarn you spun about saving the industrial paradigm by saying good bye to gold has to be satire. You will notice that the gold got to 1900 anyway, and the wise and thrifty who are still on the gold standard are doing okay, it is the fiat fools that are in all the trouble.

Clearly you have not yet read my Energy-Money Equilibrium series yet. You can start with Part 1.

http://www.doomsteaddiner.org/blog/2012/02/28/energy-money-equilibrium-the-value-of-money-in-the-age-of-oil/

Anyhow, up to 1970, the local industrial economy was run on its own local supply of Oil. Once the industrial economy and its associated War machine had to start importing Oil, it couldn’t be maintained without issuing the debt in ever more copious amounts as time went by. Nixon shut the Gold Window because the War Machine was getting impossibly expensive to run. Paid for in Gold at whatever Price, it would have bankrupted Ft. Knox of all its tungsten before we ever left Vietnam, much less got to Desert Storm.

Without the War Machine as a driver, the industrial economy here in the FSofA would have collaped on itself. Perhaps if there was some brilliant visionary leader around at the time who could have conquered the interests controlling corporations like General Electric and Lockheed a different type of economy than a War economy might have been achieved, but alas no such leader has ever appeared.

So anyhow, debt and fiat won the day over Gold because it served best the interest of those who run the MIC. The main problem now is one of the resource base measured against the population base. Gold can’t solve that problem.

RE

March 10, 2012 at 9:29 pm #1522

ashvin

El G,

As to the question of why, I think it’s quite simple. If they didn’t allow HFT front-running, manipulation, insider trading, etc., global markets would crash in a hurry as all of the instability built up from decades of unproductive credit creation comes home to roost, and they would be left without the second most efficient means of wealth extraction in human history.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKQ3LXHKB34&feature=player_embedded

Retail/pensions are not just leaving because they know it’s rigged, but also because they can’t make any money in the medium to long-term, and there’s a shit storm of volatility/risk even in the short-term now. Anyone who has been invested in U.S. equities since 2000 has lost quite a bit of money, especially when factoring in commissions, taxes, etc.

I agree it’s not all just serendipity that unregulated HFT has come to dominate the markets, but, OTOH, no explicit top-down planning is necessary for a complex system to lose its healthy variability over time, especially when the incentives and mentality needed for cheating, fraud, etc. are built into the very fabric of said system.

March 10, 2012 at 9:39 pm #1523

el gallinazo

Why am I always the fat one?

RE

“The main problem now is one of the resource base measured against the population base. Gold can’t solve that problem.”

Well if we could just get the population under say a billion in the next 15 years, I think we could solve that little problem. Only there is an appalling and disheartening shortage of volunteers. There might be a simple workaround. Kind of like the draft lottery in 1969, but with a diminishing list of deferments as time goes by. Only this is a big logistical problem. Might require German engineering.

BTW, I am glad that we have a constitutional lawyer as POTUS. Hitler and Stalin never had the decency to pass laws that they could kill anyone they felt like. They just did it. Very primitive.

March 10, 2012 at 9:50 pm #1524

el gallinazo

Ash,

” no explicit top-down planning is necessary for a complex system to lose its healthy variability over time”

I agree it’s not necessary but it certainly makes it a lot easier. We trying to fix a certain burden of proof unequally on one side of the question?

These blood clan elites have all the power and all the money. They can hire the brightest geniuses and the biggest computers. The can land a robot where ever they want on Mars, but they couldn’t figure out what would happen to the Eurozone in 10-15 odd years when even a knuckle dragging Neanderthal like Yours Truly could?

March 10, 2012 at 10:17 pm #1526

Reverse Engineer

el gallinazo post=1123 wrote: Why am I always the fat one?

RE

“The main problem now is one of the resource base measured against the population base. Gold can’t solve that problem.”

Well if we could just get the population under say a billion in the next 15 years, I think we could solve that little problem. Only there is an appalling and disheartening shortage of volunteers. There might be a simple workaround. Kind of like the draft lottery in 1969, but with a diminishing list of deferments as time goes by. Only this is a big logistical problem. Might require German engineering.

BTW, I am glad that we have a constitutional lawyer as POTUS. Hitler and Stalin never had the decency to pass laws that they could kill anyone they felt like. They just did it. Very primitive.

To do a Population Reduction Quick and Sorta Fair, all you need is a disease vector with say 95% Infection rate and 95% Mortality rate, with no medical intervention possible. Then everyone regardless of class gets Whacked on an equal and random basis. You don;t need Hitler when you have the biochemists at the Whitehead Institute at MIT on the job.

Of course, our Illuminati Masters will no doubt be holing up in underground bunkers with their own filtered air supply, Hitachi Micro Nukes and Aquaponic Food production, but they’ll be a while in coming up from out of the hole.

However, I do wonder some about the economics of trying to scale down the industrial economy utilizing just what reasonably positive EROEI Oil is left, even with a much smaller population base. It still would not be a growth economy, and thus would suffer the same monetary problems any economy in shrinkage mode would face. it might though Buy Time for the Holy Grail of Cold Fusion to come riding to the rescue of the remaining population. In absence of something like that, I suspect the system would continue to deteriorate until you finally reach a population level of Homo Sapiens that is totally pay as you go on an energy basis without depleting the rest of the environment.

RE

March 10, 2012 at 11:26 pm #1528

Golden Oxen

Stan Laurel & Oliver Hardy more apt methinks. Better match in the grey matter department, and one just as hilarious as the other.

March 11, 2012 at 12:45 am #1530

Greenpa

El Gal-”if, OTOH, you consider the situation in 1935 Ohio to have been identical to 1935 Russia under Stalin, then we might just have to disagree.”

How recently have you read (or watched) The Grapes of Wrath?

sigh. I’m just less sure about it, these days.

March 11, 2012 at 12:59 am #1531

el gallinazo

RE

You are right that they would probably use a microorganism disease vector – probably a virus. But this slime would be neither random nor fair. Neither is their style. They would then go with a very difficult to develop and replicate vaccine and inject their anointed including all their future lackeys. Probably surreptitiously not to panic the sheep. Surreptitiously just means they wouldn’t publish all the details in the Toilet Paper of Record, thus making any whistleblower a conspiracy theorist before he wound up in a FEMA camp or among Obama’s unbreathing.

Lots of evidence coming in that Monsanto’s Frankencrops are playing havoc with farm animal fertility. I am sure it’s just a coincidence. Also, it appears now that the pathway that Monsanto is using for their terminator seeds is applicable to all life forms. Our Masters have so many choices to pick from as they proceed with God’s work. But not to worry, I am quite sure that they couldn’t be that evil.

March 11, 2012 at 2:13 am #1536

el gallinazo

Greenpa

“How recently have you read (or watched) The Grapes of Wrath?”

Asume your question is rhetorical but read it about 50 years ago and last saw it about 4 years ago. Bruce Springsteen’s Ghost of Tom Joad inspired me to give it another watch. East of Eden was my favorite Steinbeck book, which fittingly centered around a psychopath, although a cute one.

I guess it’s all about shades of black. However, one statistic which I read strangely enough stated that life expectancy actually increased in the USA in the 30′s over the previous several decades, as compared to 8 digit death tolls in Stalin’s Russia even before the war started with Germany in June,1941 when Hitler broke their non-agression pact.

The US statistic is still a bit of a mystery. One explanation is less food (skinny animals live longer) and another is wearing out more shoe leather.

March 11, 2012 at 2:42 am #1539

Reverse Engineer

el gallinazo post=1136 wrote: Greenpa

“How recently have you read (or watched) The Grapes of Wrath?”

Asume your question is rhetorical but read it about 50 years ago and last saw it about 4 years ago. Bruce Springsteen’s Ghost of Tom Joad inspired me to give it another watch. East of Eden was my favorite Steinbeck book, which fittingly centered around a psychopath, although a cute one.

I guess it’s all about shades of black. However, one statistic which I read strangely enough stated that life expectancy actually increased in the USA in the 30′s over the previous several decades, as compared to 8 digit death tolls in Stalin’s Russia even before the war started with Germany in June,1941 when Hitler broke their non-agression pact.

The US statistic is still a bit of a mystery. One explanation is less food (skinny animals live longer) and another is wearing out more shoe leather.

OK, I took a LOT of heat when I introduced the following information about starvation deaths in the FSoA during the Great Depression on TBP, most specifically during the worst period from 1931-1933. Its researched up by a Ruskie Boris Borisov who may have an axe to grind here, but I did attempt to verify his statistics. Interestingly, the applicable stats are all maintained by Da Federal Reserve! It is also clear once you go into the files there that data from these years has been excised. Boris was working with old Hard Copies of these data sets in Ruskie Libraries. You cannot reproduce his work from data sets available online, the data is GONE. Seriously, its been wiped out. Go look for yourself. Relevant Data sets from 1931 and 1932 are simply not there.

Anyhow, we know from John Steinbeck’s news articles that in the pea picker fields of CA in those years, migrant Okies were dying by the truckload. We also have Dorothy Langen’s photography, which shows many people with clear signs of Starvation. It is not unreasonable based on all of this that the numbers lost in the FSofA during the Great Depression were near what Boris calculates them to have been.

Its not just starvation either, plenty of opportunistic diseases hit the chronically malnourished, and its well known that Tuberculosis ran rampant during the GD. Count in the TB deaths, you might come up with still bigger numbers.

Anyhow, I’ll paste in an article about Boris published by our friends at Pravda :-)

RE
http://www.doomsteaddiner.org

http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/19-05-2008/105255-famine-1/

Famine killed 7 million people in USA

19.05.2008

Another online scandal has been gathering pace recently. Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, deleted an article by a Russian researcher, who wrote about the USA’s losses in the Great Depression of 1932-1933. Indignant bloggers began to actively distribute the article on the Russian part of a popular blog service known as Livejournal. The above-mentioned article triggered a heated debate.

The researcher touched upon quite a hot topic in the article – the estimation of the number of victims of the Great Depression in the USA. The material presented in the article apparently made Wikipedia’s moderators delete the piece from the database of the online encyclopedia.

The researcher, Boris Borisov, in his article titled “The American Famine” estimated the victims of the financial crisis in the US at over seven million people. The researcher also directly compared the US events of 1932-1933 with Holodomor, or Famine, in the USSR during 1932-1933.

In the article, Borisov used the official data of the US Census Bureau. Having revised the number of the US population, birth and date rates, immigration and emigration, the researcher came to conclusion that the United States lost over seven million people during the famine of 1932-1933.

“According to the US statistics, the US lost not less than 8 million 553 thousand people from 1931 to 1940. Afterwards, population growth indices change twice instantly exactly between 1930-1931: the indices drop and stay on the same level for ten years. There can no explanation to this phenomenon found in the extensive text of the report by the US Department of Commerce “Statistical Abstract of the United States,” the author wrote.

The researcher points out the movement of population at this point: “A lot more people left the country than arrived during the 1930s – the difference is estimated at 93,309 people, whereas 2.960,782 people arrived in the country a decade earlier. Well, let’s correct the number of total demographic losses in the USA during the 1930s by 3,054 people.”

Analyzing the period of the Great Depression in the USA, the author notes a remarkable similarity with events taking place in the USSR during the 1930s. He even introduced a new term for the USA – defarming – an analogue to dispossession of wealthy farmers in the Soviet Union. “Few people know about five million American farmers (about a million families) whom banks ousted from them lands because of debts. The US government did not provide them with land, work, social aid, pension – nothing,” the article says.

“Every sixth American farmer was affected by famine. People were forced to leave their homes and go to nowhere without any money and any property. They found themselves in the middle of nowhere enveloped in massive unemployment, famine and gangsterism.”

The then state of affairs in the US society can be seen in Peter Jackson’s movie King Kong. The movie starts with scenes of the Great Depression and tells the story of an actress who did not eat for three days and tried to steal an apple from a street vendor. There is food in the city, but many people had no money to buy it in unemployment-paralyzed New York. People starve in the streets against the background of stores selling a variety of foodstuffs.

At the same time, the US government tried to get rid of redundant foodstuffs, which vendors could not sell. Market rules were observed strictly: unsold goods should always be categorized as redundant and they could not be given away to the poor because it could cause damage to businesses. A variety of methods was used to destroy redundant food. They burnt crops, drowned them in the ocean or plowed 10 million hectares of harvesting fields. “About 6.5 million pigs were killed at that time,” the researcher wrote.

The consequences of those policies were predictable, the author of the article wrote. “Here is what a child recollected about those years: “We changed our usual food for something for available. We used to eat bush leaves instead of cabbage. We ate frogs too. My mother and my older sister died during a year.” (Jack Griffin).”

So-called public works introduced by President Roosevelt became a salvation for a huge number of jobless and landless Americans. However, the salvation was only a phantom, Boris Borisov wrote. The works conducted under the aegis of the Public Works Administration and the Civil Works Administration were about building channels, roads or bridges in remote, wild and dangerous territories. Up to 3.3 million people were involved in those works at a time, whereas the total number of people amounted to 8.5 million, not to count prisoners.

“Conditions and death rate at those works are to be studied separately. A member of public works would make $30, and pay $25 of taxes from this amount. So a person could make only $5 for a month of hard work in malarial swamps.”

The conditions, under which people were working for food, could be compared to Stalin’s GULAG camp.

“The Public Works Administration (PWA) bore a striking resemblance to GULAG. The PWA was chaired by “American Beria,” the Secretary of Interior Affairs, Harold Ickes, who threw about two million people into camps for the unemployed youth,” Borisov wrote. “Harold LeClair Ickes (1874–1952) later interned USA’s ethnic Japanesein concentration camps. The first stage of the operation took only 72 hours (1941-1942).

“In 1940, the US population was supposed to make up at least 141.856 million people upon the preservation of previous demographic trends. As a matter of fact, the USA had the 131.409-strong population in 1940, of which only 3.054 million can be explained with changes in migration dynamics. Thus, 7.394,000 people simply do not exist as of 1940. There are no official arguments to explain the phenomenon,” Boris Borisov wrote.

It is worthy of note that modern-day Russian patriotic historians reject methods of research based on the general estimation of demographic losses. They believe that demographic processes are not linear and depend on a number of factors. Such historians think that victims of communism estimations made on the base of demographic research works by Stephan Kurt and Richard Pipes, which George Bush and Helen Bonner announced at the opening of Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation in Washington, are false.

On the other hand, these methods are widely used in contemporary science of history. Ukrainian historian Stanislav Kulchitsky used the method to calculate the number of victims of the Ukrainian Holodomor (famine), which was subsequently officially recognized. Parliaments of eleven countries that recognized Holodomor use those numbers in their research works. To crown it all, the US Congress and the European Union also use Kulchitsky’s numbers considering the problem.

Dmitry Lyskov
Pravda.ru

Translated by Dmitry Sudakov

March 11, 2012 at 1:03 pm #1547

gezelle

http://praemon.org/2011/07/28/raymond-kinsons-response-to-weighing-in-on-america%e2%80%99s-military-readiness/

The 1940′s draft results dispelled the notion that Americans did not suffer serious malnutrition during the depression.

The link above was the quickest found, but the sheer numbers of undernourished draftees and those who were too malnourished to serve were startling, even to those who knew that the population did not fare as well as the government and TPTB had insisted.
Not the mass deaths under Stalin, but a sobering statistic we need to heed. How much of our crop land has ben lost and how much of our food is now imported?? Large cities in the US are showing increasing numbers of severly undernourished children today.
iIt will only get worse.

March 11, 2012 at 3:21 pm #1552

Greenpa

RE- yeah; thanks. I find those numbers rather more credible than “official” ones. The infinite plasticity of statistics is by way of being a sub-specialty of mine; I’ve been aware of the distortions there for many years. The story I linked to above about the NY cop finding crime statistics being consistently and extensively manipulated just brought my appreciation to a new peak.

Having spent time in China, I got additional appreciation for how people handle information like this. It gets mentioned, slightly, then everybody wants to change the subject. NOBODY wants to face it. The particular instance was a broad floodplain all planted in rice. We were driving across it- it went on and on. It occurred to me to ask my host, related by marriage to one of Mao’s generals- “so is this the region where Mao opened the dikes to cover his retreat?” “Oh, let me ask…” as he referred to the local guide. “Yes, this is the place.” Something like 2 million peasants drowned. A glorious victory followed later, of course.

Right here. Great rice. Let’s talk about something else, shall we? And while the locals remember; I’ll bet you those numbers don’t get included much, in official discussions.

March 11, 2012 at 3:43 pm #1553

el gallinazo

RE

Well, I probably bought some phony statistics as real. I do admit that I was skeptical of them when I saw them. Both my parents were born in 1913 and lived in NYC during the depression, so I didn’t have to go to the library to learn about hard times. And they were psychologically scarred by it which got passed down to my sister and me.

On a note closer to the content of Ash’s article, bomb throwing anarchist :-) Charles Biderman, ruminating on the roaring stock market and noting that everyone seems to be running away anyway, says it’s Da Fed. If you can print your own money, maybe you don’t need no steenkin’ meat and blood investors. It’s the new paranormal.

“Everybody Knows”

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That’s how it goes
Everybody knows

Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows that the captain lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died

Everybody talking to their pockets
Everybody wants a box of chocolates
And a long stem rose
Everybody knows

March 11, 2012 at 3:49 pm #1554

Greenpa

you might want to fix the 1040′s – it took me a while to realize there was not some intentional reference to the tax form… :-)

March 11, 2012 at 3:53 pm #1555

el gallinazo

Fat finger :-)

March 11, 2012 at 3:57 pm #1556

gezelle

Fixed! Combination damaged hand and not being used to this teeny laptop keyboard make for some wacky postings….sorry!

March 11, 2012 at 4:02 pm #1557

Greenpa

El Gal: “Well, I probably bought some phony statistics as real.”

We all do. Seemingly by preference. Of course, we’ve been sold the rosy versions since early childhood; but that’s not the entire reason; childhood tales do include very dark stuff (Grimm, in fact) yet- we somehow preferentially believe the happy versions.

I find this an interesting behavioral conundrum; particularly in light of another behavioral universal. I’ll state them together.

Given two conflicting facts about “society” in general; most people will prefer to accept the happier version, on most occasions.

Simultaneously; presented with two conflicting assessments regarding your “self” (“You’re beautiful!” vs. “You’re stupid, fat, and ugly!”) – the great majority of us will instantly believe the negative assessment is more true; and agonize about it for decades.

I think those two statements are accurate. Possibly the evolutionary advantages lie in not instantly attacking and killing the liars in charge, which would certainly cause a constantly high level of societal chaos; and self-critical thinking might be expected to generate self improvement.

But it’s not a lot of fun. And connections to reality are exceedingly tenuous, at all times.

(aside; I DO like and appreciate the ability to edit posts.)

March 11, 2012 at 4:33 pm #1560

Greenpa

A new and fascinating “justice” story from the NYT:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/11/opinion/sunday/go-to-trial-crash-the-justice-system.html

Dangerous. Will they follow up the story? So far, they haven’t been following the one about the officer arrested for truth; at least not where i can find it.

March 11, 2012 at 4:43 pm #1561

Greenpa

Hm; why don’t comments made to this thread show up automatically in this view? They’ve been up in the other view for a half hour or so…..

Anyway; speaking of unspeakable statistics; this from WaPo:

“A newborn baby dies every 20 seconds in India and four out of 10 children are malnourished. Last month, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh called the state of the health-care system a “national shame.””

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-plans-big-increase-in-health-care-spending-to-catch-up-to-rivals/2012/03/04/gIQAnVuw0R_story.html

Ok; that’s horrifying. Automatically, I’m doubting it’s true. Can somebody check? Has the population of Homo reached that point on the planet already?

March 11, 2012 at 6:39 pm #1570

pipefit

ash–”This trend is an important reminder of how market instability does not necessarily equal a market crash or collapse – all of these outflows occurred during a 20% rally in the market from its October lows.”

True enough. But stepping back a bit, one can see that the S&P 500 is about where it was in 1999, 13 years ago. How much cpi inflation has there been since then? Well, a gallon of gasoline costs 3 times as much. Or, you could say that a unit of spy or $spx buys 1/3 as many gallons of unleaded regular gas as in 1999.

When are you deflationists gonna throw in the towel? This is a deliberate debasement of the money supply. They can’t just tell everyone that their stock is worth 33 cents on the dollar. Far easier to hold the stock market steady and debase the measuring stick, the dollar. And with Euro weakness, the job just got an order of magnitude easier.

I love a good conspiracy theory as much as the next gold bug, but the elite can kill the other 7 billion of us any time they want. They don’t need subterfuge. Why don’t they just do it? Are they like a cat that plays with a mouse, before eventually killing it? Doubt it.

March 11, 2012 at 10:05 pm #1575

Reverse Engineer

EG wrote: Well, I probably bought some phony statistics as real. I do admit that I was skeptical of them when I saw them. Both my parents were born in 1913 and lived in NYC during the depression, so I didn’t have to go to the library to learn about hard times. And they were psychologically scarred by it which got passed down to my sister and me.

All Statistics have to be parsed by using your common sense, particularly when stats reflect poorly on Da Goobermint. Far as the Great Depression goes, we KNOW millions of farmers were pushed off their land, we KNOW there was virtually no social safety net in place, and even with the missing data sets from 1931-33 the discontinuity in population growth trends between the 1930 Census and the 1940 one all point to a markedly increased Death Rate during this period. Add in the deprivation in Big Shities of the time (there were Faood Riots in many ajor shitties and the Bonus Army March was in fact one of many Food marches that went on in those years), and you can only conclude that starvation problems here were likely close to what they were in the Ukraine Holodomor.

As to whether our Goobermint was as bad as Stalin, Ashvin already has delineated how the Chain Gains were used in the South as a means to perpetuate Slavery, and what was the Death Rate on those Gangs? I won;t speculate on the Death Rate for WPA workers, but that probably was pretty high. There was no OSHA in those days, and they were working in some mighty dangerous places.

Then you have the evidence of Japanese-American internment Camps, and our current situation of having the largest Prison population in the world. Can you really make a good case it has beenn that much better here for the Poor than it was in China or Russia?

Greenpa post=1157 wrote:

Given two conflicting facts about “society” in general; most people will prefer to accept the happier version, on most occasions.

Simultaneously; presented with two conflicting assessments regarding your “self” (“You’re beautiful!” vs. “You’re stupid, fat, and ugly!”) – the great majority of us will instantly believe the negative assessment is more true; and agonize about it for decades.

I think those two statements are accurate. Possibly the evolutionary advantages lie in not instantly attacking and killing the liars in charge, which would certainly cause a constantly high level of societal chaos; and self-critical thinking might be expected to generate self improvement.

But it’s not a lot of fun. And connections to reality are exceedingly tenuous, at all times.

(aside; I DO like and appreciate the ability to edit posts.)

These are not characteristics of Iconoclasts, fortunately for me :-)

First off, I never think anybody else can make a better analysis than I can, so if Da Goobermint Stats don’t match up with my analysis, they are for sure LYING. I GUARANTEE IT! LOL.

Clearly though, iconoclastic thinking is socially selected against, and we generally are not very popular people. this also doesn’t bother me, because I am basically a hermit and really don’t care what other people think of me :-) This frees up your thinking a lot.

RE

March 11, 2012 at 10:20 pm #1576

Anonymous

Concerning a bioweapons release, the idea is not to exterminate the population on a fair and equal basis, since the perpetrators would be eugenicist maniacs after all, having a pronounced hatred of certain kinds of people.
A likely scenario is a less-lethal binary bioweapon release infecting the whole population, whereby the forced vaccination would trigger a tailored effect by a trojan biochemical activator in certain batches of vaccines to be given to political enemies, dissidents or ethnic minorities.
A binary terminator vaccine would be used to selectively kill the infected, or sterilise the survivors, maybe causing cognitive impairment or metabolic deficiency in certain groups, in order to destroy their organic group viability.

Its conceivable that various opposing factions within the global oligarchy have already infected eachothers elites with dormant or chemically suppressible bioweapons without known cure, thus triggering mutual assured extinction of the disparate dysgenic groups in absense of cooperation within the oligarchical collective and regular exchange of suppressant formula.
With the development of scalar tectonic weapons available to opposing factions, no bunker complex is deep enough. If sheltering from either fallout or bioweapons used against opposing oligarchies, they would be pulverised down in their crypts in the first counterstrike.

March 11, 2012 at 10:25 pm #1577

Reverse Engineer

pipefit post=1170 wrote:

I love a good conspiracy theory as much as the next gold bug, but the elite can kill the other 7 billion of us any time they want. They don’t need subterfuge. Why don’t they just do it? Are they like a cat that plays with a mouse, before eventually killing it? Doubt it.

First off PF, knocking down the population from 7B to 500M Georgia Guidestone numbers while still maintaining enough control to end up at the top of the heap in the end Game is a logistical problem of IMMENSE proportions, far greater than the measely 10-20M Mass Murder/Genocide sprees undertaken to date. If the Illuminati really could Snuff out the Useless Eaters that easily, trust me, they already would have done it.

Second, it is a canard to believe the Illuminati are a Single Organism with uniform objectives, they are not. There are two very identifiable factions there vying for control, along with divisions along Geographical lines and Cultural lines. Wht they share in common is they are all Power Seekers, but their interests often conflict with each other. they can’t willy-nilly Whack everybody, because each of them needs his own Army to protect and defend his Property. If you kill off too many of your “Loyal Subjects” too quickly, you lose your Power Base.

While most certianly in Absolute Numbers J6P will do most of the dieing here, BY PERCENTAGE the Illuminati will suffer much worse. this because they will Cannibalize EACH OTHER. Its an M&A Game on the Grand Scale, and only One Pigman can walk away with ALL the Chips.

Trust me, when there is nothing left to Loot from J6P, these Scumbags will be Looting each other, and Brutus will be stabbing Caesar inthe back all over the place. There is No Honor Among Thieves PF, not even at this level.

RE

http://www.doomsteaddiner.org

March 11, 2012 at 11:45 pm #1581

Anonymous

The factions seeking global dictatorship are trying to avoid being identified as the cause of the wars or pandemics, so they cannot proceed too openly. They can only present themselves as solutions to their own dialectic terror, liberators or saviors of the surviving people, if an intercultural memory of their crimes cannot propagate. They’ll try to blame the enemy oligarchy of other countries for whatever they unleash domestically.
However, a critical mass of popular awareness has been reached for the first time in recorded history, because of the internet reformation more people than ever before are aware and informed of oligarchical collectivism, and the criminal oligarchy can no longer disguise themselves if they perpetrate gigadeath, too many survivors will know them and hunt them to the ends of the earth.
This is their problem now, as aggregate evil is unsustainable, they need to be able to trick the good into compliance by techniques of dialectic deception and fear which are no longer effective.

The infamous criminal syndicate of the illuminate must be placed within the larger structure of the mystery schools and the various occult hierarchies. There are international factions vying for political and economic power between east and west, some ancient opposing systems of occult control originated simultaneously in the first growth of cities and have never been unified in political ideology or strategy. Some are distinctly less criminal, and even incorporate concepts similar to political liberalism and freedom, if those were compatible with secret societies.
There are rumors of a mythical white dragon society in asia, a counterpart to the western illuminate, which may worship something other than nasty lucifer. Occult hierarchies around the world generally serve oligarchy, and nothing else, but not always the same oligarchy.

March 12, 2012 at 2:56 am #1586

el gallinazo

RE

I read with interest your post about the Illuminati yesterday and your opinions today of how the dynamics of the factions within it may play out over the collapse. I tend to avoid that particular term to label this group for obvious reasons, but you probably have historical reasons for using it.

Which brings me to the point of this comment. As I am sure that you have gathered by now, it is an area of considerable interest to me, and I would be grateful if you could post several links you feel to be solid which describe both the history of the group(s) and about any factions that may have developed since its origins. The links would be sufficient and I do not need a long description or analysis covering each link.

Thanks in advance.

March 12, 2012 at 3:00 am #1587

Glennjeff

Gravity,

Irrespective of the reality in your words, love that writing style, should you write any books of quasi-fiction be sure to let us (me) know.

I’m thinking that THEY(???) have everything embedded in words and language, we are born to play out an ancient plot (? Luciferian ?) and it is transmitted subliminally/hypnotically from within both language and popular mythology/history/religion. THEY(???) have no more control over their actions than we do. Consider those ideas for fiction if you so choose.

March 12, 2012 at 3:41 am #1588

Reverse Engineer

el gallinazo post=1186 wrote: RE

I read with interest your post about the Illuminati yesterday and your opinions today of how the dynamics of the factions within it may play out over the collapse. I tend to avoid that particular term to label this group for obvious reasons, but you probably have historical reasons for using it.

Which brings me to the point of this comment. As I am sure that you have gathered by now, it is an area of considerable interest to me, and I would be grateful if you could post several links you feel to be solid which describe both the history of the group(s) and about any factions that may have developed since its origins. The links would be sufficient and I do not need a long description or analysis covering each link.

Thanks in advance.

Your supposition is correct, there are historical reasons I plug in “Illuminati” as my most common term for the Global Elite. Mainly I use it because its such a loaded concept and really annoys a lot of people. LOL. However, my definition of Illuminati is a lot broader than just the Elders of Zion or descendants of the Plantaganets etc.

Yes also, I pretty quickly grasped that this area is of interest to you, and since I’m writing to grab interest from you and anyone else in coming and visiting with us at DD, I’m tailoring what I write here to do that.

Insofar as providing you with direct Links to other source material, Peter is a lot better at doing that than I am. Of course, we also don’t share the same opinions on outcomes here, but he has a great library of source material he has dug up, most of which I have read in the course of arguing with him about the nature of the game here.

For my part, I write what I refer to as Mr. Peabody History. I work from first principles of Human Behavior and then process all the bits of history I have picked up over many years of reading and spit out my own version of history that I think better fits the facts as they are apparent today then the history we get in textbooks or even in some old source material. My college girlfriend was a massive polyglot who could read Greek and Latin texts in their original form and we spent many nights hashing over the history she read. I refer to here as “Illuminati Spawn”. LOL. I personally had quite a bit of contact with the Rockefeller family in my youth, since my dad was an apparatchik for Chase Manhattan engaged in making a lot of bad loans to South American countries and acquiring controlling interest in local banks down there in the 1960s.

Anyhow, to answer your question would take a lot of writing here which would be better done on DD, where Peter is more likely to join the discussion. I invite you again to get your butt over there and register and stop LURKING! LOL.

To leave you thinking, consider this problem. Why do you think we see two different methodologies in play here for monetary collapse, deflation and hyperinflation? IMHO, its because behind the curtain up at the top, you have two different groups which are playing the game. One group would like to retain Dollar hegemony and so would favor a deflation, the other group would like to Hyperinflate it and substitute a new currency. the likely group for retention of the Dollar is the Anglo-American branch of the Illuminati, the HI group is likely led by the Teutonic branch.

BTW, you can directly trace back this dichotomy to two men, both inventors of the Calculus. Sir Isaac Newton on the Brit side, Wilhelm Gottfried Leibniz on the Kraut side. Its because of these two men and their respective discoveries in mathematics that the Brits and the Germans got there first with the application of thermodynamics to the Industrial game. The two men had a bitter battle and both had Egos greater than the size of the known Universe. That battle has never ended.

For more, I’ll see you on the Doomstead Diner :-)

RE

http://www.doomsteaddiner.org

March 14, 2012 at 12:36 am #1641

Anonymous

Not all of the oligarchy intends to commit gigadeath by bioweapons or otherwise, some groups are definitely opposed to such crimes. One reason why worse things haven’t happened yet is because the humaner groups are resisting the policies of more murderous colleagues. There is a special elitist strain of ecological extremism which may mobilise the non-sociopathic majority of oligarchs in a political platform of planetary depopulation to ‘save the planet’, whereas the pure psychopath oligarchs, adhering to no ideology, couldn’t care less about the earth and only seek depopulation as a tool of control.

I’d like to add that oligarchy is not always criminal, and only some parts interface with the occult. Oligarchy as an organizational substructure revolves around facilitating the hidden financial and commercial dominance of elite groups, but it will resort to openly abusing political and military power to safeguard its position in a contractionary phase, or whenever in danger of becoming obsolete.

When oligarchy does degenerate into open criminality and additionally engages parallel command and control structures within occult hierarchies, you’d expect clustered sociopathy running rampant in there. And not all occult hierarchies are criminal or evil, but because the dimensions of their operations are usually well concealed, no legal means of democratic control may restrain organised criminal tendencies or political extremism if such were to appear there.

Overall, I hold the large-scale operation of secret societies to be incompatible with democracy and open civil discourse. If indeed beyond institutional democratic control, the social assimilation of occult value systems must promote conflicting loyalties which dissociate the identity of the citizen as moral actor and reduce initiation to a form of political insanity.
I do like that part in the mysteries where Gravity is a recursive algorithm. Or is that every part?

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