Oct 062022
 
 October 6, 2022  Posted by at 8:22 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  Add comments


Paul Gauguin The Seine in Paris 1875

 

Politics By Other Means (Big Serge)
Putin Signs Unification Treaties For New Regions (RT)
Russia Sets Out How It Will Financially Support New Regions (RT)
Putin Transfers Europe’s Largest Nuclear Plant Under Russian Control (RT)
Pipeline Terror is the 9/11 of the Raging Twenties (Escobar)
Kremlin Responds To Rumors Over Its Ukraine Op (RT)
EU Agrees To Impose Price Cap On Russian Oil (RT)
European Gas Demand Set For Record-Breaking Decline In 2022 (OP)
EU Public Support For Ukraine Drops – Poll (RT)
US Declares War On Russia, Germany, Netherlands And France (Meyssan)
Kharkov and Mobilization (Jacques Baud)
Putin Must Go: Now Is The Time For Regime Change In Russia (John Bolton)
After Russia, Now Turkey Questions Europe’s Territory (Euractiv)
Biden Blasts “Short-Sighted” OPEC+ Cut (ZH)
Media Lying About Climate And Hurricanes (Shellenberger)

 

 

 

 

Saudi Reuters

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clausewitz.

Politics By Other Means (Big Serge)

It is often the case that the most consequential men in the world are poorly understood in their time – power enshrouds and distorts the great man. This was certainly the case of Stalin and Mao, and it is equally true of both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Putin in particular is viewed in the west as a Hitlerian demagogue who rules with extrajudicial terror and militarism. This could hardly be farther from the truth. Almost every aspect of the western caricature of Putin is deeply misguided [..] . To begin with, Putin is not a demagogue – he is not a naturally charismatic man, and though he has over time greatly improved his skills as a retail politician, and he is capable of giving impactful speeches when needed, he is not someone who relishes the podium.

Unlike Donald Trump, Barack Obama, or even – God forbid – Adolf Hitler, Putin is simply not a natural crowd pleaser. In Russia itself, his imagine is that of a fairly boring but level headed career political servant, rather than a charismatic populist. His enduring popularity in Russia is far more linked to his stabilization of the Russian economy and pension system than it is to pictures of him riding a horse shirtless. Furthermore, Putin – contrary to the view that he wields unlimited extralegal authority – is rather a stickler for proceduralism. Russia’s government structure expressly empowers a very strong presidency (this was an absolute necessity in the wake of total state collapse in the early 1990’s), but within these parameters Putin is not viewed as a particularly exciting personality prone to radical or explosive decision making.

Western critics may claim that there is no rule of law in Russia, but at the very least, Putin governs by law, with bureaucratic mechanisms and procedures forming the superstructure within which he acts. This was made vividly apparent in recent days. With Ukraine advancing on multiple fronts, a fresh cycle of doom and triumph was set in motion: pro-Ukrainian figures exult in the apparent collapse of the Russian army, while many in the Russian camp bemoan leadership which they conclude must be criminally incompetent. With all of this underway on the military side, Putin has calmly ushered the annexation process through its legal mechanisms – first holding referendums, then signing treaties on entry in the Russian Federation with the four former Ukrainian oblasts, which were then sent to the State Duma for ratification, followed by the Federation Council, followed again by signature and verification by Putin.

As Ukraine throws its summer accumulations into the fight, Putin appears to be mired in paperwork and procedure. The treaties were even reviewed by the Russian constitutional court, and deadlines were set to end the Ukrainian hryvnia as legal tender and replace it with the ruble. This is a strange spectacle. Putin is plodding his way through the boring legalities of annexation, seemingly deaf to the chorus which is shouting at him that his war is on the verge of total failure. The implacable calm radiating – at least publicly – from the Kremlin seems at odds with events at the front. So, what really is going on here? Is Putin truly so detached from events on the ground that he is unaware that his army is being defeated? Is he planning to use nuclear weapons in a fit of rage? Or could this be, as Clausewitz says, the mere continuation of politics by other means?

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Think that’s the final administrative step?!

Putin Signs Unification Treaties For New Regions (RT)

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed into law four unification treaties with the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, as well as the Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions, on Wednesday morning. Earlier the documents unanimously endorsed by the Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian parliament. The agreements were ratified on Monday by the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, after they were certified as lawful by the country’s Constitutional Court over the weekend. The agreements were signed by Putin and the heads of the four former Ukrainian regions on Friday, after the residents of the territories overwhelmingly backed the idea of joining Russia during referendums held between September 23 and 27. The votes have been firmly rejected by Kiev and its Western backers, who have vowed to never accept their results nor recognize the four regions’ accession. The DPR and LPR split from Ukraine in 2014 in the aftermath of the Maidan coup and the civil conflict in the country’s east that followed. Shortly after launching a military operation in February this year, Russia seized Kherson Region and a larger part of Zaporozhye Region.

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“..an exemption from federal income tax for 10 years and the payment of no more than 13.5% to the regional budget..”

Russia Sets Out How It Will Financially Support New Regions (RT)

Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development announced on Wednesday that it will launch a state financing program to support the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, as well as Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions. According to the ministry’s statement, the territory has “huge economic and industrial potential.” The statement highlighted plans to pass a federal law on the creation of a common free economic zone for the new regions with preferential treatment for investors, with tax and non-tax incentives guaranteed within its framework. These will be similar to the incentives provided in the free economic zone of Crimea and Sevastopol.


“The accession of new territories in the Russian Federation will ensure an increase in nationwide indicators on such main sectors as the metals industry (by 20%), coal sector (by 6%), grain production (by more than 10%), sunflowers (over 20%),” Deputy Minister Sergey Nazarov said. He pointed out that the “gross regional product of new regions will amount to three trillion rubles ($50 billion) within five years.” According to him, the special provisions could see an exemption from federal income tax for 10 years and the payment of no more than 13.5% to the regional budget. On Wednesday morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed into law four unification treaties with the new regions, which overwhelmingly voted to join Russia in referendums in September.

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Logic.

Putin Transfers Europe’s Largest Nuclear Plant Under Russian Control (RT)

President Vladimir Putin has issued an order placing the formerly Ukrainian Zaporozhye power plant under Russian management. A presidential decree on the fate of Europe’s largest nuclear facility was published on Wednesday. The facility will be operated by a subsidiary of Russia’s state-owned nuclear power giant Rosatom. For now, the facility will continue to function under Ukrainian-issued licenses until it obtains Russian-issued equivalents, according to the decree. The move comes as Moscow finalizes the accession of four formerly Ukrainian regions – Zaporozhye, Kherson, as well as Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics – to Russia.


The territories overwhelmingly backed a proposal to join Russia in referendums last month. The votes were firmly rejected by Kiev and its Western backers, who denounced them as “sham” votes. In recent weeks, Zaporozhye nuclear power plant has been subjected to repeated missile, artillery and drone attacks, attributed by the Russian military to Ukrainian forces, as well as targeted by saboteurs in apparent attempts to seize the facility from Russian forces. Kiev, along with multiple Western officials, however, has been blaming Moscow for shelling the nuclear facility it controls. The Zaporozhye plant was seized by the Russian military early in the ongoing conflict. Until now, however, it has remained under Ukrainian management.

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“..Russia is getting ready for an all-out collision with the Empire of Lies. Alongside top Eurasian powers China and Iran.”

Pipeline Terror is the 9/11 of the Raging Twenties (Escobar)

There’s no question that future unbiased historians will rank Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address on the Return of the Baby Bears – Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia – on September 30 as a landmark inflection point of the Raging Twenties. The underlying honesty and clarity mirror his speech at the 2007 Munich Security Conference, but this time largely transcending the trappings of the geopolitical New Great Game. This was an address to the collective Global South. In a key passage, Putin remarked how “the world has entered a period of revolutionary transformations, which are fundamental in nature. New development centers are being formed, they represent the majority.”

As he made the direct connection between multipolarity and strengthening of sovereignty, he took it all the way to the emergence of a new anti-colonial movement, a turbocharged version of the Non-Aligned Movement of the 1960s: “We have many like-minded people all over the world, including in Europe and the United States, and we feel and see their support. A liberating, anti-colonial movement against unipolar hegemony is already developing in various countries and societies. Its subjectivity will only grow. It is this force that will determine the future geopolitical reality.” Yet the speech’s closure was all about transcendence – in a spiritual tone. The last full paragraph starts with “Behind these words stands a glorious spiritual choice”.

Post-post-modernism starts with this speech. It must be read with utmost care so its myriad implications may be grasped. And that’s exactly what tawdry Western spin and a basket of demeaning adjectives will never allow. The speech is a concise road map to how we got to this incandescent historical crossroads – where, to venture beyond Gramsci, the old order refuses to acknowledge its death while the new one is inexorably being born. There’s no turning back. The key consequence of a largely documented fact – “a hybrid war is being waged against Russia because it stands in the way of the neocolonial world order” – is that Russia is getting ready for an all-out collision with the Empire of Lies. Alongside top Eurasian powers China and Iran. Imperial vassals in this case are at best collateral damage.

Moreover, it’s quite telling that Putin’s speech followed India’s External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar, stressing the “pillaging of India by the colonial power” at the UN General Assembly. Putin’s speech and Russia’s resolve to fight the – hybrid and otherwise – war against the collective West set up the Macro Picture. The Micro Picture regards the see-saw in the battlefields in Ukraine, and even the blow-up of the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipelines: a desperate gambit, a few days before the result of the referendums and their official recognition on September 30.

Dick Black

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“Certain territories will be returned, and we will continue consulting with the people, who would wish to live with Russia..”

Kremlin Responds To Rumors Over Its Ukraine Op (RT)

Moscow has not rebranded its military campaign in Ukraine as a “counter-terrorist operation” after taking four former Ukrainian regions under its sovereignty, contrary to some expectations, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said. “This is solely the prerogative of the commander-in-chief, the country’s president,” he told journalists on Wednesday when asked about a possible change of format. “As of this moment, no such decision has been taken. We are talking about the special military operation, which continues,” he added. Some political observers predicted that the Russian government would reclassify the hostilities with Ukraine after incorporating a number of former Ukrainian regions, where much of the fighting against Kiev’s troops is taking place.

Officials in Moscow accused Kiev on multiple occasions of using “terrorist tactics” against people in frontline regions. There was some expectation that Russia would designate the operation against Ukraine accordingly. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed into law on Tuesday four acts, which designate the Donetsk and Lugansk Republics and Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions as new subjects of the Russian Federation. Ukrainian troops are in control of parts of those territories and have recently retaken a number of settlements, which were previously held by Russian forces. Peskov reacted to Kiev’s advances, stating that the new lands “are with Russia forever [and] will be returned.”

The official also commented on the standing issue of the borders of Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions. Peskov described the two new parts of Russia as lands “where the military-civilian administration was in power at the moment of accession.” “Certain territories will be returned, and we will continue consulting with the people, who would wish to live with Russia,” the spokesman said. Kiev declared Russia’s move to accept new territories as legally void and based on “sham” referendums that changed nothing for Ukraine. The Ukrainian government declared that it will oust Russian troops from all lands it considers to be under its sovereignty with the help of the US and its allies.

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What a waste of time.

“The price cap is part of an eighth round of anti-Russia sanctions..”

EU Agrees To Impose Price Cap On Russian Oil (RT)

The EU has reached a tentative deal to impose a price cap on the sale of Russian oil to third countries, Politico Europe reported on Tuesday citing diplomatic sources. Cyprus, Greece and Malta had concerns about the potential impact on their shipping industries, but were reportedly promised concessions. The price cap is part of an eighth round of anti-Russia sanctions, which Brussels is expected to roll out this week, citing the conflict in Ukraine. EU ambassadors reached an agreement on Tuesday and expect to approve the final text on Wednesday, Politico reported citing seven diplomats – all of whom wished to remain anonymous. Details of the sanctions still need to be confirmed in writing, and there was a “limited” chance the deal could still unravel, one source reportedly said.

The three Mediterranean members were reportedly concerned about the impact of the restrictions on their commercial shipping, but Brussels offered “concessions” in the form of a “monitoring system” that would propose measures to mitigate the impact of the embargo, in case of “significant loss of business” due to practices such as reflagging of commercial vessels. The EU has already banned the import of coal from Russia, with an oil embargo scheduled to go into effect in December. The price cap seeks to block Moscow’s petroleum exports to third countries using EU-registered vessels, as the bloc has already sanctioned all Russian shipping. Meanwhile, Hungary said it had secured assurances the price cap won’t apply to oil delivered through pipelines.

Anti-Russia measures adopted by the US and its allies have led to a spike in oil prices, leaving Russia with more revenue from exports than before the embargo. The price cap proposed by the G7 seeks to neutralize this. According to the proposal, EU vessels will refuse to carry Russian oil if it is priced above the cap, the value of which has yet to be determined. The sanctions have also resulted in the EU facing severe energy shortages. However, the bloc’s leaders have vowed to support Ukraine indefinitely, no matter what. Moscow has made it clear it will not comply with the price cap scheme, with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warning that Russia will simply refuse to sell fuel to countries that seek to enforce or abide by it.

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Industry.

European Gas Demand Set For Record-Breaking Decline In 2022 (OP)

Soaring natural gas prices, demand destruction in the industrial sector, and energy-saving measures are set to reduce gas consumption in Europe’s developed economies by 10% this year, the biggest drop in European demand in history, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its quarterly Gas Market Report on Monday.The forecast of a 10% decline in natural gas demand in OECD Europe reflects the expectation of higher gas prices and the EU’s ambition to reduce gas consumption by 15% between August 2022 and March 2023 compared to its five-year average. “Assuming average weather conditions, gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors is expected to remain below 2021 levels,” the IEA said in its report.

Due to sky-high high prices and a very tight gas market, natural gas usage in the power generating sector in Europe is forecast to drop by nearly 3% this year. Industrial gas demand is expected to plunge by as much as 20%, the IEA said. Energy-intensive industries in Europe, including aluminum, copper, and zinc smelters and steel makers, have already warned EU officials that they face an existential threat from surging power and gas prices. After a record slump in gas demand this year, Europe faces another year of gas consumption contraction in 2023, when OECD Europe’s demand is forecast to decline by 4% amid high prices, according to estimates from the IEA.The agency also noted that “Further potential disruption to the supply of Russian gas provides additional downside risk to this outlook.”

Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s Director of Energy Markets and Security, commented on the report: “The outlook for gas markets remains clouded, not least because of Russia’s reckless and unpredictable conduct, which has shattered its reputation as a reliable supplier. But all the signs point to markets remaining very tight well into 2023.” The IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said last week that the gas market could be even tighter next year compared to already tight LNG markets in 2022.

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The headline says support dropped. Then you learn that the poll is from June, 3 months into the SMO. It is October now. And the authors still say that “measures to support Ukraine in its defense against the war waged by Russia remain popular”.

EU Public Support For Ukraine Drops – Poll (RT)

A EU-wide survey by the pollster Eupinions has suggested a drop in support for sending weapons to Ukraine and accepting refugees from the country among the EU public. However, measures to aid Kiev in its conflict with Moscow are still supported by the majority of respondents, the study shows. The results of the poll, which was conducted throughout June in 27 member states, were released on Wednesday. They showed that 60% of the EU’s population were on board with sending weapons to Kiev. The backing for lethal aid was the highest in Poland, where 84% spoke in favor of it; and the lowest in Italy, where it was supported by just 42%.“In fact, Italy is the only member state where a majority of citizens oppose the delivery of weapons,” the study pointed out.

Meanwhile, 60% of those surveyed believed that the shipments of arms to Kiev should be organized through EU mechanisms, while 54% preferred them to be carried out by their home countries. A similar poll conducted in March showed that 64% in the bloc were in favor of arms deliveries. Moscow has consistently criticized the US, EU and other countries over their shipments of weapons to Kiev, arguing that they only prolonged the fighting and increased the risk of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. Support for welcoming Ukrainian refugees has declined by 5% in the EU since March and stood at 81%, according to the survey. It was the highest in Germany, Italy and Spain (83%, 84% and 90%, respectively), and the lowest in Poland (77%) and France (76%).

Ukraine was granted EU candidate status shortly after the outbreak of the conflict, with 66% of the population in member states now saying they would like to see Kiev joining the union. The respondents were also asked to name the country they thought was the EU’s most trustworthy ally, with 77% saying that it was the US. As for the economic fallout of the sanctions imposed on Moscow by Brussels, Eupinions pointed out that 46% of EU citizens said their personal outlook on the future was negative, compared to 37% at the same period last year. Overall, the authors of the study came to the conclusion that “measures to support Ukraine in its defense against the war waged by Russia remain popular” in the EU.

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“He did not realize that he was violating the Straussian doctrine by imagining that he was escaping from the US military protectorate.[..] Six days later, Navy Seals blew up the two gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, setting Germany back eleven years.”

US Declares War On Russia, Germany, Netherlands And France (Meyssan)

Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who was elected in December 2021, has made two serious mistakes in a few months. On December 7, he went to the White House where he tried to resist the United States’ demand that he stop accepting Russian gas. Back home, he chose to maintain Nord Stream and block Nord Stream 2, while seeking renewable sources. He thought, wrongly, that he was balancing the warmongering of US strategic thinking, the needs of his industry and the doctrine of the Greens, members of his government coalition. The Chancellor had had a close call: during his press conference with the US President, Joe Biden said that his country could destroy Nord Stream 2 and that if Russia invaded the Ukraine, he would do so.

It was absolutely frightening for Scholz to hear his overlord spit in his face that he could destroy a tens of billions of dollars investment if a third party acted without regard to his dictates. We do not know whether President Biden also mentioned the destruction of Nord Stream 1 during the closed-door talks, but it is not impossible. In any case, according to the German journalists who followed him, the chancellor returned to Germany pale. His second mistake was made on September 16, 2022. His country wanted to get out from under the Anglo-Saxon umbrella and ensure its own security as well as that of the entire European Union. « As the most populous nation, with the greatest economic power and located at the center of the continent, our army must become the pillar of conventional defence in Europe, » the chancellor said.

By specifying that he was only talking about “conventional defence”, he intended to spare the susceptibility of his French neighbor, the only nuclear power in the Union. He did not realize that he was violating the Straussian doctrine by imagining that he was escaping from the US military protectorate. In 1992, Paul Wolfowitz signed the Defense Policy Guidance, excerpts of which were published in the New York Times. He indicated that the United States would consider any desire for European emancipation as a cassus belli. Six days later, Navy Seals blew up the two gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, setting Germany back eleven years.

At the same time, the Baltic Pipe pipeline was inaugurated with great fanfare, a few hours after the sabotage, by the Polish president, the Danish prime minister and the Norwegian energy minister. It does not have at all the same capacities as Nord Stream, but it will be enough to change the times. Once the European Union was dominated by German industry using Russian gas, now it will be dominated by Poland using Norwegian gas. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki triumphantly declared at the inauguration ceremony: “The era of Russian gas domination is coming to an end; an era that was marked by blackmail, threats and extortion.

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“..the energy to defend this territory was greater than its strategic importance.”

Kharkov and Mobilization (Jacques Baud)

The recapture of the Kharkov region at the beginning of September appears to be a success for Ukrainian forces. Our media exulted and relayed Ukrainian propaganda to give us a picture that is not entirely accurate. A closer look at the operations might have prompted Ukraine to be more cautious. From a military point of view, this operation is a tactical victory for the Ukrainians and an operational/strategic victory for the Russian coalition. On the Ukrainian side, Kiev was under pressure to achieve some success on the battlefield. Volodymyr Zelensky was afraid of a fatigue from the West and that its support would stop. This is why the Americans and the British pressed him to carry out offensives in the Kherson sector. These offensives, undertaken in a disorganised manner, with disproportionate casualties and without success, created tensions between Zelensky and his military staff.

For several weeks now, Western experts have been questioning the presence of the Russians in the Kharkov area, as they clearly had no intention to fight in the city. In reality, their presence in this area was only aimed at affixing the Ukrainian troops so that they would not go to the Donbass, which is the real operational objective of the Russians. In August, indications suggested that the Russians had planned to leave the area well before the start of the Ukrainian offensive. They therefore withdrew in good order, together with some civilians who could have been the subject of retaliation. As evidence of this, the huge ammunition depot at Balaklaya was empty when the Ukrainians found it, demonstrating that the Russians had evacuated all sensitive personnel and equipment in good order several days earlier. The Russians had even left areas that Ukraine had not attacked. Only a few Russian National Guard and Donbass militia troops remained as the Ukrainians entered the area.

At this point, the Ukrainians were busy launching multiple attacks in the Kherson region, which had resulted in repeated setbacks and huge losses for their army since August. When US intelligence detected the Russians’ departure from the Kharkov region, they saw an opportunity for the Ukrainians to achieve an operational success and passed on the information. Ukraine thus abruptly decided to attack the Kharkov area that was already virtually empty of Russian troops. Apparently, the Russians anticipated the organisation of referenda in Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhe and Kherson oblasts. They realised that the territory of Kharkov was not directly relevant to their objectives, and that they were in the same situation as with Snake Island in June: the energy to defend this territory was greater than its strategic importance.

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There’s only one John Bolton. Problem is, there’s 1000s of wannabees.

Putin Must Go: Now Is The Time For Regime Change In Russia (John Bolton)

There is no long-term prospect for peace and security in Europe without regime change in Russia. Russians are already discussing it, quietly, for obvious reasons. For the United States and others pretending that the issue is not before will do far more harm than good. Notwithstanding recent Kyiv’s military advances, the West still lacks a shared definition of “victory” in Ukraine. Last week, Putin “annexed” four Ukrainian oblasts, joining Crimea, “annexed” in 2014. The war grinds on, producing high Russian casualties and economic pain. Opposition to Putin is rising, and young men are fleeing the country. Of course, Kyiv’s civilian and military casualties are also high, and its physical destruction is enormous.

Hoping to intimidate NATO, Moscow is again rhetorically brandishing nuclear weapons, and has sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines. Europe worries about the coming winter, and everyone worries about the durability of Europe’s resolve. No one predicts a near-term cease-fire or substantive war-ending negotiations, or how to conduct “normal” relations with Putin’s regime thereafter. To avoid the war simply grinding along indefinitely, we must alter today’s calculus. Carefully assisting Russian dissidents to pursue regime change might just be the answer. Russia is, obviously, a nuclear power, but that is no more an argument against seeking regime change than against assisting Ukrainian self-defense.

White House virtue signaling already empowers the Kremlin, accusing us of “satanism,” to claim America is trying to overthrow Russia’s government even though Biden is doing no such thing. Just to remind, the Kremlin has been doing this to us for many decades. Since we are already accused of subverting the Kremlin, why not return the favor? Obstacles and uncertainties blocking Russian regime change are substantial, but not insuperable. Defining the “change” is critical, because it must involve far more than simply replacing Putin. Among his inner circle, several potential successors would be worse. The problem is not one man, but the collective leadership constructed over the last two decades. No civilian governmental structure exists to effect change, not even a Politburo like the one that retired Nikita Khrushchev after the Cuban missile crisis. The whole regime must go.

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EU is not the same thing as Europe.

After Russia, Now Turkey Questions Europe’s Territory (Euractiv)

A memorandum of understanding for exploring hydrocarbons at sea signed between the government of Tripoli and Turkey openly questions EU territory causing more headaches in Brussels amid an ongoing war in Ukraine. “Ankara’s latest agreement shows that Turkey follows a pattern”, an EU source told EURACTIV ahead of an EU summit this week which Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to attend. The preliminary deal on energy exploration was signed between the Libyan Government of National Unity and Turkey and is considered a follow-up of a wider memorandum of understanding between the two countries in 2019. The deal questions Greece’s territorial waters south of the island of Crete and has triggered strong reactions.

The EU, Washington and Athens have all condemned the deal, saying it destabilises the region, infringes upon the sovereign rights of third states, does not comply with the Law of the Sea and cannot produce any legal consequences for third states. Since the Arab Spring, Libya has been facing a fragile political landscape considering that there are two rival governments: the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity which signed the deal with Ankara and the Sirte-based Government of National Stability. The latter also slammed the agreement, saying any deal made by an outgoing government is not binding for the Libyan state. Moreover, Ankara is increasingly escalating its rhetoric daily, openly questioning the sovereignty of the Greek islands.

Particularly, the far-right government partner of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Devlet Bahçeli, recently said the sovereignty of the Dodecanese and North Aegean islands are Turkish and not Greek. “We will pull out the eyes of anyone who tries to cover our rights and justice,” Bahçeli said. An EU source told EURACTIV that Brussels is closely following the escalation in the Mediterranean and in no way wants to face another front of instability after Russia’s invasion in Europe’s east. “All Turkey’s moves, both in rhetoric and in practice, show that Erdogan is following a pattern through the repetition of certain moves”, the EU source said. The source emphasised that in 2019 the Turks signed the Turkish-Libyan memorandum with something in mind because they are coming in 2022 to strengthen it in the same sense. “The objective is to question the current status quo”, the source added.

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White House: “It’s clear that OPEC+ is aligning with Russia with today’s announcement.”

Biden Blasts “Short-Sighted” OPEC+ Cut (ZH)

OPEC+ could be on the verge of one of the largest production cuts in two years, a move White House officials would undoubtedly have a ‘panic attack’ as they attempt to dissuade the 23 crude-producing countries and its allies, such as Russia, from making the cuts. OPEC+ is considering cutting 2 million barrels a day, and on the smaller side, a reduction of 1-1.5 million barrels a day, delegates said. Such a move would be a blow to Washington as the Biden administration has scrambled to unleash record amounts of crude from the strategic petroleum reserve to tame soaring crude prices this summer. “Higher oil prices, if driven by sizeable production cuts, would likely irritate the Biden administration ahead of US midterm elections,” Citi strategists wrote in a note.

Citi strategists appear correct: CNN obtained some of the draft talking points circulated by the White House to the Treasury Department this week and called the prospect of a production cut a “total disaster” and “hostile act.” “There could be further political reactions from the US, including additional releases of strategic stocks,” the strategists added. They said the Biden administration could also push forward with an anti-trust bill targeting OPEC. But that’s not all. According to Bloomberg, White House officials are discussing possible export bans on gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum with the Energy Department. People familiar with discussions said administration officials are discussing export bans of refined products with top oil industry leaders as the risk of an OPEC+ reduction could catapult fuel pump prices higher ahead of the midterm elections in November.

[..]Despite Biden’s SPR drain, hitting levels not seen since 1984, the export ban could be the most controversial move yet by the desperate administration to tame pump prices ahead of the midterm elections next month. Biden’s political emptying of the SPR has left it with a record low of just 22 days of supply… Top oil execs and industry experts have blasted the proposed export ban, saying it could backfire and result in even higher gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices, while throwing energy markets into turmoil in Europe ahead of winter. In a letter to the Energy Department, Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods wrote last week that “continuing current Gulf Coast exports is essential to efficiently rebalance markets—particularly with diverted Russian supplies.” “Reducing global supply by limiting US exports to build region-specific inventory will only aggravate the global supply shortfall,” Woods said.

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“The increasing cost of hurricane damage can be explained entirely by more people and more property in harm’s way.”

Media Lying About Climate And Hurricanes (Shellenberger)

Over the last several weeks, many mainstream news media outlets have claimed that hurricanes are becoming more expensive, more frequent, and more intense because of climate change. The Financial Times reported that “hurricane frequency is on the rise.” The New York Times claimed, “strong storms are becoming more common in the Atlantic Ocean.” The Washington Post said, “climate change is rapidly fueling super hurricanes.” ABC News declared, “Here’s how climate change intensifies hurricanes.” Both the FT and N.Y. Times showed graphs purporting to show rising hurricane frequency using data from the U.S. government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). All of those claims are false.

The increasing cost of hurricane damage can be explained entirely by more people and more property in harm’s way. Consider how much more developed Miami Beach is today compared to a century ago. Once you adjust for rising wealth, there is no trend of increasing damage. Claims that hurricanes are becoming more frequent are similarly wrong. “After adjusting for a likely under-count of hurricanes in the pre-satellite era,” writes NOAA, “there is essentially no long-term trend in hurricane counts. The evidence for an upward trend is even weaker if we look at U.S. landfalling hurricanes, which even show a slight negative trend beginning from 1900 or from the late 1800s.” What’s more, NOAA expects a 25% decline in hurricane frequency in the future.

What about intensity? Same story. Explains NOAA, “after adjusting for changes in observing capabilities (limited ship observations) in the pre-satellite era, there is no significant long-term trend (since the 1880s) in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes.“ Bottom line? “We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in: frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major.”

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Ingraham chemistry

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Home Forums Debt Rattle October 6 2022

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    Paul Gauguin The Seine in Paris 1875   • Politics By Other Means (Big Serge) • Putin Signs Unification Treaties For New Regions (RT) • Russia Set
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle October 6 2022]

    #117815
    V. Arnold
    Participant

    Paul Gauguin The Seine in Paris 1875

    Lovely painting; but something seems off about the lighting…

    #117816
    userzeroid
    Participant

    There is a rail strike on Saturday 8th October in the UK. Perhaps someone should mention this to the organizers!

    #117817

    Nobel literature any moment now. Rushdie. Tomorrow peace. Zelensky or Greta.

    #117818

    Lovely painting; but something seems off about the lighting…

    Moon center above the frame?!

    #117819
    boscohorowitz
    Participant

    btw, Bishko is wrong. But don’t take my word for it.

    #117820
    boscohorowitz
    Participant

    ” “The increasing cost of hurricane damage can be explained entirely by more people and more property in harm’s way.” ”

    Just as anthropogenic climate theory(ACT) is based on the concept of more humans burning more fuel, the allegedly catastrophic nature of ACT is based on more people living in more places and doing so in more exposed and fragile lifestyles.

    It’s relative.

    #117821
    boscohorowitz
    Participant

    In the last article we looked at some results from Grant Petty.

    In essence they demonstrate the huge variation in the transmittance of CO2 through the atmosphere with the wavelength of radiation.

    I decided it might be interesting to try and reproduce these results using the HITRAN database. This allows a closer examination of which mechanisms cause which results.

    Line Shapes and Pressure Broadening
    The energy in a photon is given by a very simple equation:

    E = hν

    where h = Planck’s constant = 6.63 x 10-34 J.s, and ν = frequency (ν=c/λ where c=speed of light and λ = wavelength)

    So, for example, a 15μm photon has an energy of 1.3 x 10-20 J.

    A photon can be absorbed by a molecule if the energy of the photon matches the exact energy required to change the state of that molecule.

    Now, if a photon was only absorbed at one exact wavelength then atmospheric radiation would be irrelevant.

    An easy concept for people who have done a lot of maths or physics, but not so obvious to many others.

    Let’s take a different example. If you start your car up and accelerate steadily up to 60 miles per hour over 1 minute, how long do you spend at the speed of 34.5698895549034592345123 miles per hour? Not much. And the more precise I make this speed, the less time you will have spent at it.

    If we consider how much energy is transferred in terrestrial radiation from the surface at 14.995698895549034592345123 μm, the answer is “not much”. The same goes for any other vanishingly small interval of wavelengths.

    So if each absorption line was exactly one wavelength then the amount of energy absorbed by a finite number of lines would be zero.

    However, each absorption line has a finite width. Part of this is due to the uncertainty principle described by quantum mechanics – the small time a higher energy state is occupied produces an uncertainty in the energy of that state.

    This is called natural broadening and is a very small effect.

    The easiest broadening mechanism to understand is Doppler broadening. Molecules in the atmosphere are zipping around in all directions at speeds of around 500 m/s. Compared with the speed of light this is small, but the difference in the relative speed between a photon and a molecule is slightly changed, leading to a change in the absorption frequency (see note 1 for more details). This is “relatively easy” to understand from first principles and the mathematical treatment is straightforward.

    The dominant line broadening mechanism in the lower atmosphere is pressure, or collisional, broadening. This is more challenging from a theoretical point of view but is certainly a measurable value.

    The main effect of pressure broadening is to “spread out” the absorption line. Here is a typical example, where 1000mb is at the earth’s surface, and 200mb is at the “tropopause”, or top of the lower atmosphere:

    And so forth. (see: Understanding Atmospheric Radiation and the “Greenhouse” Effect – Part Nine

    This does not mean that Bish’s main conclusion is wrong. Other factors may apply. But it does mean that his reasoning is incomplete, to say the least, and wrong insomuch as incomplete is not conclusive.

    Not that it matters in the real world. As Bish recently noted, with or without ACT, we’re headed for ridiculously rough times. Discussing climate change at this point is mostly a rhetorical exercise, typically driven more by the immediate comfort needs of our egos than out long-term concerns for our and others’ survival.

    #117822
    Dr. D
    Participant

    Common ad:
    Solar1
    https://tpc.googlesyndication.com/simgad/4376412675403040791

    Wait, here’s a better one:
    Solar2 https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/styles/teaser_desktop_2x/public/2022-10/2022-10-05_13-20-36.jpg

    My God what an ecological disaster. You can get PMCs to believe anything.

    “Elon Musk would lose 13.5 million Twitter followers if he pushes through plan to eliminate spam accounts” –MarketWatch

    In what reality could this possibly be true? Where 13.5M real users boycott because they like spam so much? Because the opposite is that they’re not losing “Followers” they are losing “Fraud”. That’s not a loss, dummies. Goes to show, if you removed the fraud there would BE no financial system.

    “”Be Afraid, Be Actually Afraid”: Reporters Panic At The Thought Of Twitter Restoring Free Speech Protections”

    Being a reporter means the fear that somehow, somewhere, somebody has free speech.

    France out of petrol. So is the U.S., but only in the SPR, not on the street yet.

    “Poland in Talks with US about Hosting Nuclear Weapons”

    When I say “Biden’s Slavic Genocide” I felt bad because it wasn’t the Poles, and so a big step of exaggeration. Now we see that Britain set up a NATO go-around, a private 3-state agreement with the Polish self-immolators.

    From Helmer link yesterday:
    “The invasion fleet of the alien space invaders is getting ready to attack Planet Earth. “We start the war with an attack on Poland,” the commander declares. “But General, why Poland?”. “For some reason this is how it always is on that planet.”

    Britain does the SAME THING every time. For 200 years. Like Chamberlain, get Poland overconfident and belligerent. Then then attack 1) Russia 2) Germany 3) Both. The U.K. then “Forgets” that they had an alliance and says “Now’s not a good time to help defend you”. Poland is then overrun and loses for starting a war with people far stronger than they are.

    England then says “Wot’s all this then? Hitler? Starting a war? Well I say, sir!!! You, are a villain!” Then they can get involved in the war THEY STARTED, but LAST, after Poland and everyone is all chewed up and dead. Like their kids the Yanks, showing up dead last, doing dead least, and losing what 1% of their population in WWII? 20x less than Europe?

    So. SLAVIC GENOCIDE.

    But what can I say? Poland can’t figure this out? At risk of their very life the existence of their “race”? Cue the Polish jokes. And what’s Russia – or Germany – supposed to do with them? Remember as far back as Madame Curie, Poles were a wreck of Europe, leaving their home country, yet radically and deadly nationalist for the glorious home revolution, fighting Paris or wherever they go. Against anybody, anywhere, any time. What can any country in Europe do with that sort of attitude?

    Well we know what England does with it: make hay. “Let’s you and him fight.” Agggggggaiiiiinnn.

    So: Poland attacked, or helped attack GERMANY. With NS2. Poland at the same time, CHOSE to start a two-front war against Russia. #Winning! Why/How/Who did they do this with? Certainly the Anglos, UK and US, the exact same guys who double-crossed them last time and got them all killed, THEN got them all for a 70-year stint in Soviet prison.

    Who was the promoter of the Polish leader, who somehow amazingly went to English schools? Boris Johnson.

    So London has sent 1) Ukraine to fight Russia. 2) Germany to fight Russia, and it seems 3) Poland to fight Russia. I don’t see no Tommys there. Gee I wonder why Russia always thinks the West is out to get them? Because every 70 years since Napoleon, they try it?

    “ EU Agrees to Impose Price Cap on Russian Oil (RT) “

    Since clearly this is not about it “working” then there is another reason. A short look at it shows they reserve the right to sink all ships. So we’re not in a war, there’s no declaration of war, but anybody who even sympathizes with “Them” will be blown to h—l and sunk on the high seas, all men lost. Uh-huh. Sounds like “not a war” to me! And how dare you declare war on us after we sunk your ships? (Moskva)

    Put another way: Oceana controls the high seas, as Orwell said. They are fighting MacKinder. As they lost the war in Ukraine, they are cycling in Poland with intolerable provocations in order to get all NATO involved. Russia is aware of this and isn’t interested. They will try other things first.

    “Stolz] thought, wrongly, that he was balancing the warmongering of US strategic thinking,”

    I agree with this reading. However, the mistakes may have been made on the Anglo-Strauss side, if NS2 can be repaired. It’s only the –Option– that Germany can choose. Everyone knew there would be trouble to change their mind and say yes. If modest repairs can open that option, it’s still on. If they bomb it again – when Russia themselves spend millions fixing it – it’s only that much more obvious.

    Note who Putin says blew it. “America”, as reported in the press? No, because “it was reported in the press”, therefore = lie. He said the “Anglo Saxons” blew it. Now “Britain”, as in the house of “Windsor” is really the House of Coburg Saxon (aka German), but I don’t think that’s what he was getting at. We can guess who the “Anglos” are, who are the “Saxons”? The sort of people who might have names like “Klaus”?

    Russians are already discussing [regime change], quietly, for obvious reasons”

    Yes, they are discussing putting in someone who’s not a milk-toast moderate and Europhile like Putin is, but someone strong and warlike.

    To avoid the war simply grinding along indefinitely, we must alter today’s calculus.”

    Wait: John, y’all were the ones who DEMANDED the war be long. Now you DON’T want the war to be long? Make up your mind, sounds like your plan didn’t work and you’re changing it midstream.

    “news media outlets have claimed that hurricanes are becoming more expensive, more frequent, and more intense because of climate change.”

    My take is that this is roughly true. Also that it’s measurably warmer, which makes sense for hurricanes. But the question is 1) why, and 2) should we do wildly expensive, totally counterproductive things about it.

    Chart: Yes, but coal is clean as long as it’s burned somewhere else. Same with rare earth mining, and circuit recycling. Not in Kansas City? See, it’s clean as can be. So environmental. As long as it poisons the yellow and black people somewhere else. Greeeeeen!

    #117823
    John Day
    Participant

    I put this post together last night before bed, for morning promulgation. Ilargi found some of the same things, as usual. Picture of Jenny in the banana patch. “Only Bad Ideas” https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/only-bad-ideas

    John Michael Greer on “Futures That Work” refers to Arnold Toynbee’s 12 volume Study Of History, and focuses on the feature of how societies adapt, or fail and are later replaced, when they are confronted with problems related to their economic modes of sustenance and survival.
    It’s the creative class that is important, the problem-solvers, who may not be the rulers, but who inspire the rulers to take certain actions when problems arise.
    The creative-minority has to be nimble, adroit, and has to keep solving a variety of different problems. If a particular solution-set, like industrial-society, powered by fossil-fuels, mines, factory farms and electronic communications, becomes entrenched, the creative-minority may be replaced by a dominant-minority. A dominant-minority reacts to problems by reframing them to fit preferred “solutions”, which don’t work, but keep being put forward, because they are “preferred” by those who dominate. The actions of Liz Truss, deciding to cut taxes for the rich, when the Pound Sterling was on the ropes, and almost bankrupting most UK pensions before lunch, is used as a ready example. Liz is not in her position to be creative.
    The positions on the energy future of the industrialized world are also “preferred”. The green-agenda wants to do what has not worked in Germany with great effort, and which there is not enough fossil-fuel to carry out, let alone to continue long term.
    The nuclear-answer, popular since the 1950s, does not work well financially, because there are so many ancillary costs, and such high risks, and great costs come when reactors need to be retired, like balloon-notes come due.
    Those who deny the problem itself, that there is a shortage of energy to feed exponential growth, are not expounded-upon.
    Greer looks at modes of problem-solving, like seeing what worked in an area in the past, like transportation-canals in England. He looks at insulation to cut heating and cooling costs by 10%. That is hard to retrofit, I’ll point out. Taking out sheetrock walls and climbing in tight attics with nails poking you in the head makes most workers put insulation in pretty carelessly. It is then far less effective than in theory.
    Greer doesn’t really discuss war, but it is one of the main political tools in times of change. War needs to have clear and achievable objectives, which most politicians don’t comprehend well. It is a horrible tool, and it backfires half the time at best. War does not provide innovative solutions. War reinforces the hand of dominant-elites. Sometimes creative minorities turn up in a war, but they were already there and ignored.
    In a world of declining net energy, with or without climate change, one needs to grow one’s own garden, insulate one’s own house, have nice wool long-underwear and a well-fitted, practical bicycle. there is a lot more of course, but a big-fix like exponential-economic-growth powered by coal, oil and gas, will not be found.
    Maybe fusion-power will be technically possible, but it will require all that has gone before it to remain in good working order.
    That working-order is collapsing from something as readily repairable as a miscalibrated economic system, which collapses without ongoing exponential growth. The dominant-class does not want to understand that, because it is what feeds them, so they do not understand it, and will take the world to war rather than understand the need for economic recalibration to a less-wasteful system, one that can grow and contract with changing realities.
    The systemic adjustments being seriously considered in the west are variations on absolute control of each person through brain-wiring and electronic money to keep the person in compliance, or dying of cold and hunger, owning-nothing-and-being-insincerely-“happy” to survive at all. That looks like more can-kicking in a bad direction. It ignores the problem solving ability of billions of adaptive humans.
    The Cheney-Bush plans were to control the world and take what they needed. That is equally short-term, but preferred, because those in power got to stay in power.
    All of the “preferred solutions” cause more bleeding of productive economy, while providing fresh blood to the owners, forcing the privations of economic collapse onto the rest of us.
    There is a rumor going around that the owners want to slowly kill off 90% of the herd, the “useless” 90%. More can-kicking.
    I’m in that 90%, so I don’t like it. I can be somewhat more creative than that, and so can you.

    Futures That Work

    The United States declares war on Russia, Germany, the Netherlands and France​ , ​by Thierry Meyssan​​
    ​ ​While the international press treats the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines as a news item, we analyze it as an act of war against Germany and the European Union. Indeed, the three gas supply routes to Western Europe have been cut off simultaneously, while at the same time a new gas pipeline has been opened to Poland.
    ​ ​Just as Mikhail Gorbachev saw in the Chernobyl disaster the inevitable break-up of the USSR, so we believe that the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines marks the beginning of the economic collapse of the Union.
    https://www.voltairenet.org/article218167.html

    ​ Former Commander US Forces, Afghanistan and CIA Director, David Petraeus (hypothetically) Explains US Threats to Russia​
    ​ ​Petraeus thinks that this is what the US government has in mind when it comes to the recent statements of “catastrophic consequences” for Moscow. Lately, the belligerent thalassocracy has ramped up its unfounded rhetoric that Russia was supposedly planning on using tactical nuclear weapons against the Kiev regime forces. The narrative has been heavily (ab)used by the mainstream propaganda machine.
    ​ ​“And what would happen?” show co-anchor Jonathan Karl asked Petraeus.
    ​ ​“Well, again, I have deliberately not talked to Jake [Sullivan] about this. I mean, just to give you a hypothetical, we would respond by leading a NATO, a collective effort, that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea,” former CIA chief stated.
    ​ ​Then, the “This Week” anchor mentioned the scenario in which the radiation fallout from the supposed Russian nuclear strike could directly impact much of Eastern Europe, including nearby NATO member states.
    ​ ​“Yes. And perhaps you can make that case. The other case is that this is so horrific that there has to be a response, it cannot go unanswered. But it doesn’t expand, it doesn’t — it’s not nuclear for nuclear,” Petraeus claimed. “You don’t want to, again, get into a nuclear escalation here. But you have to show that this cannot be accepted in any way,” the retired general said.
    ​ ​While the retired US Army general and former CIA director is not speaking from a position of legal authority, as he is not officially part of the troubled Biden administration or in any capacity as an active government official, his opinion can still be considered a reflection of what the US foreign policy and military establishment think, especially considering the positions he held in the past. The very idea that such a high-ranking (former) official thinks that Russia would stand idle while NATO targets its forces is quite indicative of the deteriorating state of America’s top brass, both political and military. https://www.globalresearch.ca/former-cia-director-petraeus-threatens-russia/5795463

    #117824
    John Day
    Participant

    Section analyzing why Russia MIGHT be doing what they are doing, the way they are doing it:

    Politics By Other Means​ , ​Putin and Clausewitz​ , Big Serge​
    “War is a mere continuation of politics by other means.”
    ​ ​B​ig Serge points out that Vladimir Putin is a bureaucrat (and lawyer) by nature, not a demagogue. He is very orderly and systematic, intelligent, not as he is typically presented in western media. He does not have, nor seek a cult of personality, but is popular in Russia because he has provided gradual improvement in people’s lives.
    The take away here, after some good psychological profiling, is that there was a threat to Russia posed by massed Ukrainian/NATO forces early this year, which Russia pre-empted as frugally in men and equipment as possible. Over that time, the people of Russia have made a transition from watching the war on TV, to feeling the existential threat from the west. They now want the threat to be removed decisively. Putin has brought the Russian people to politically supporting an existential war for Russian survival, a thing he saw, and that Russians now see. This is political effectiveness. Russians have committed at least as fully to war as any country in history when they have done so to defend Russian existence, their homes and families. That spirit is now widespread.
    https://bigserge.substack.com/p/politics-by-other-means

    Maneuver Warfare, Great dangers rise up when you least expect them , William Schryver , Thanks Dan (Russian intentions are really not known, nor NATOs.)
    ​..​I described how the Ukrainians had expended thousands of troops and hundreds of vehicles in their quasi-fanatical attempts to take both Kupyansk and Liman.
    ​ ​Nevertheless, those two towns were taken, and the Ukrainians have continued to make modest advances since then while the Russians prepare yet another hardened defensive line several kilometers further east.
    ​ ​I’ve also been reporting for weeks now regarding the never-ending trains of Russian equipment and troops streaming into the region from various directions – and yet few if any of these major reinforcements have found their way to the front lines, much to the chagrin of those cheering on the Russian cause, and who have been devastated by what appear to be repeated Russian defeats.
    ​ ​However, in just the last few hours, reports have been leaking out that western intelligence has detected a major buildup of Russian forces in and around Belgorod, just across the border of the Kharkov Oblast, and immediately north of the current line of contact.
    https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/maneuver-warfare

    ​ There are very different reports of who is running out of war-material worse, in Moscow and Washington. Each capital believes its own information.​
    UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE IN KHARKOV REGION: RETREATING RUSSIAN FORCES PREPARE NEW LINES OF DEFENCE IN LPR
    ..The General Staff of Ukraine has never counted the losses in manpower. The last month of hostilities in Ukraine was marked by offensive operations of the AFU in several regions of the country. In the Kharkiv region, they led to strategic success, while in Kherson, the operation ended in failure and the unnecessary deaths of thousands of Ukrainian servicemen. The Kiev regime is wasting no time trying to disrupt Russian communications and cut off supply roads in the Kharkiv and Donbass regions before the rainy season comes, as well as before hundreds of thousands of newly mobilized Russian troops are deployed on the front lines. The Ukrainian Armed Forces and NATO servicemen deployed in Ukraine are trying their best to declare new victories and please their Western patrons, not paying attention to the price they have to pay.
    https://southfront.org/ukrainian-offensive-in-kharkov-region-retreating-russian-forces-prepare-new-lines-of-defence-in-lpr/

    ​Moon of Alabama (German) , ​Ukraine – What Explains The Recent Russian Retreats?
    ..My current ‘feel’ is that the Russian forces have orders from high above to conserve forces and to let go of land and retreat when the pressure becomes big enough and severe Russian casualty numbers are likely.
    ​ ​Why were such orders given? What are the plans behind them?
    ​ ​I don’t really know.​ ​But I am sure will find out when Russia opens the new phase of the war.
    ​ ​The weather has become quite bad in Ukraine with rain making the passing over fields with tanks etc nearly impossible. That is why the attack in the south was pushed along a road. In two month the ground in Ukraine will likely be frozen.
    ​ ​The Russian military leadership seems to believe that the Ukrainian operations will cease soon and that the mobilized reinforcements that are starting to come online will be able to decisively change the picture as soon as the winter comes.
    ​ ​Another potential reason behind the order to conserve forces and to not hold onto territory at any price may be political. The Russian public was starting to get a bit tired of the war but after the losses in the Kharkov region the TV pundits pushed for winning the war. That allowed Russia’s president to launch the mobilization of reservists. The further losses since may be designed to allow for more political measures.
    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/10/ukraine-what-explains-the-recent-russian-retreats.html#more

    ​ ​Continued American deliveries of weapons, intelligence and even personnel to Ukraine make a direct NATO-Russia confrontation more likely, diplomat Konstantin Vorontsov told the UN General Assembly on Tuesday.
    ..“The US is increasing the deliveries of weapons to Ukraine, providing its military with intelligence information, ensuring the direct participation of its fighters and advisers in the conflict,” Vorontsov, who is the deputy head of the Russian delegation, told the General Assembly’s First Committee, a body charged with arms control and security issues.
    ​ ​This “not only prolongs hostilities and leads to new casualties, but also brings the situation closer to the dangerous line of a direct military clash between Russia and NATO,” Vorontsov added.
    ​https://www.rt.com/russia/564070-warning-ukraine-deliveries-direct-clash/

    #117825
    John Day
    Participant

    ​ Spartacus about the “own nothing and be happy”. rentier-capitalist scheme.
    ​ ​If they say you’re a dissenter, or a terrorist, or whatever charges they feel like fabricating for your non-compliance with their disgusting, cowardly, tyrannical behavior, they can make your money go poof. If you leased everything to live, then you now have the shirt on your back and a burlap sack with some dirt and weeds in it. You have nothing. You’re homeless. Forcing citizens to lease everything to live is a cynical, tyrannical form of social control. It means that when you’re unemployed, or frozen out of the financial system, you have no assets, no property to fall back on, nothing you can pawn, if need be. It means no inheritance. It means your family can’t pass down valuable heirlooms and assets to your children, or your children’s children, nor can you receive such from your parents. Basically, the arrangement of rentier-overlord and helpless serf reduces you to an isolated consumer-unit, constantly throwing money uphill and into the pockets of the rentier class.
    ​ ​It’s cynical and insane of the Overclass to try and force this intolerable arrangement on millions of people who are acclimated to freedom. They know this. That’s why they want comprehensive electronic mind control. It’s why they want mass immigration from poorer countries to more affluent ones.
    https://iceni.substack.com/p/spartacast-05#details

    ​ Moon of Alabama on western elites sticking to their preferred-solution despite ongoing failure of the economic sanctions against Russia..
    ​ The idea was to bankrupt Russia within a few weeks. The deluded people behind those sanctions had no idea how big and sanctions proved Russia’s economy really is. The sanctions failed to influence Russia in any way but their consequences led to a shortfall of energy in Europe and increased the already high inflation rates. Inflation in Russia is sinking and its general economic numbers are good. The now higher energy prices generate sufficient additional income to completely finance its war efforts.
    A sane actor would conclude that the sanctions were a mistake and that lifting them would help Europe more than it would help Russia. But no, the U.S. and European pseudo elites are no longer able to act in a sane manner. They are instead doubling down with the most crazy sanction scheme one has ever heard of…
    ..How do you make a big producer of a rare commodity sell those goods below the general market price? Unless you have a very strong buyers cartel that can also that product from elsewhere you can not do this successfully. It is an economic impossibility…
    ..Russia has declared that it will not sell any oil to any party that supports the G7 price fixing regime. That is why neither China nor India nor any other country besides the EU and U.S. will agree to adhere to it….
    ​..​Under the new rules, companies involved in the shipping of Russian oil — including shipowners, insurers and underwriters — would be on the hook for ensuring that the oil they are helping to transport is being sold at or below the price cap. If they are caught helping Russia sell at a higher price, they could face lawsuits in their home countries for violating sanctions.​..
    ​..​This is of course an open invitation to other countries to enter the oil shipping and related financial services businesses at the cost of European companies.
    ​ ​China and India will both it to increase their market shares in those fields. Their ships will transport Russian oil to whoever wants to buy it for the market price minus the always negotiable Russian rebate. Greek ships will sit idle or will be sold off while Indian and Chinese and other Asian tankers will be very, very busy. ​ ​China’s big insurance companies will happily join that new global services business.
    ​ ​That European bureaucrats agreed to his stupid U.S. idea, which will foremost hurt European businesses, is another sign that Brussels has given up on having any agency.
    ​ ​Today OPEC+ countries, the seller cartel for oil, reacted to the crazy sanctions idea and the upcoming global depression by agreeing to decrease their daily output by 2 million barrels. This was not done out of Saudi solidarity with Russia. Saudi Arabia needs oil at above $80/bl to finance its budget. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/10/crazy-sanctions.html#more

    ​ Walter M. Chesnut looks at what every COVID-19 “vaccine” injection provides to the recipient.
    THE SPIKE PROTEIN’S EFFECT ON THE MICROVASCULATURE OF THE HEART AND OTHER ORGANS IS EQUIVALENT TO A SILENT “HEART ATTACK.” ADDITIONAL DAMAGE FROM ISCHEMIA-REPERFUSION INJURY.
    Is all Spike Protein damage based upon individual’s level of Microvascular Occlusion? And, does each exposure inexorably increase an individual’s Microvascular Occlusion?
    https://wmcresearch.substack.com/p/the-spike-proteins-effect-on-the

    #117826
    Red
    Participant

    As Steve Keen puts it:

    “Capital without energy is a statue; labour without energy is a corpse!”

    “Soaring energy costs in Europe are shutting down businesses and threatening a bloc-wide recession… more and more companies are switching into survival mode. That’s because, for a lot of them, the time is coming to renew their electricity supply contracts with utilities. Thanks to energy inflation, these are set to be much higher than the contracts for the current year, with front-year prices reaching over $1,000 in France and Germany…

    “It looks like businesses packing and leaving for cheaper jurisdictions is yet another unintended consequence of the policies favored by European governments, especially in the energy department. It is also one more risk for the survival of the bloc as a competitive industrialized formation in the future…”

    Ironically, among the industries to close or offshore production are the EU’s wind turbine producers – exposing the degree to which non-renewable renewable energy-harvesting technologies depend upon cheap and abundant fossil fuel energy in their manufacture. Most likely then, China will be the main beneficiary of any future attempt to solve the European energy predicament by building more windfarms.

    Beyond confidence

    #117827
    oxymoron
    Participant

    Susmarie108 your thoughts from yesterday regarding time were sublime. Thank you.
    Dr D. Really top shelf a alto and history today. The Poles have the Krampus for Christmas this year for sure. This fourth turning has a good 5 years left though

    #117828
    Red
    Participant

    Dr D:
    “Elon Musk would lose 13.5 million Twitter followers if he pushes through plan to eliminate spam accounts” –MarketWatch

    In what reality could this possibly be true? Where 13.5M real users boycott because they like spam so much? Because the opposite is that they’re not losing “Followers” they are losing “Fraud”. That’s not a loss, dummies. Goes to show, if you removed the fraud there would BE no financial system.

    They may be referring to his personal followers being mostly bots!? That’s how it reads to I.

    #117829
    aspnaz
    Participant

    Sweden to close all religious schools except for Jewish schools? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5495915/Sweden-vows-ban-religious-schools-tackle-segregation.html. I wonder if this is true, it certainly smells true given the Jews’ love of exceptionalism. i wonder what the ever-busy Jews are up to at the moment, they will have a role in the EU decline, and a plan to profit from it, they are being too quiet at the moment.

    #117830
    John Day
    Participant

    Breakfast time, then driving down to install more oak-flooring.

    #117832
    aspnaz
    Participant

    Corruption in Thailand has resulted in the Thai craft brewing industry moving their brewing to Vietnam … https://www.castlemalting.com/CastleMaltingIndustryNews.asp?Command=View&ID=37725. I have tried a few of those Thai craft beers and the standard is consistently high. This is from a malted barley manufacturer’s newsletter … this is for anyone wanting a break from the usual news.

    #117833
    Red
    Participant

    The fun is starting to get real for those based in the fiction of finance.

    Commercial real estate advisory Savills today released the first batch of its Q3 quarterly office market reports on the major markets in the US, 12 markets in total. Houston tops the list in terms of the largest share of vacant office space on the market, with an availability rate of 30.7%. San Francisco is second with 28.9%, and shooting higher.

    A big issue is sublease space. This is space for which companies are still paying rent to the landlord, but they’re not occupying it, and instead they’re trying to find sublease tenants for it to help defray the expenses of that space. These companies will price their sublease space aggressively since they don’t have to make a profit on this office space, but just want to lower their costs of holding it until the lease expires. Sublease space puts downward pressure on effective rents – even as landlords are tying to hold the line.

    Houston has long been the hardest-hit of the big office markets due to the oil bust that started wreaking havoc in 2015, followed by the pandemic and the shift to working from home. But things are getting slightly less bad. The construction boom that took off during the oil boom kept throwing the latest and greatest office towers on the market at the worst possible time, with projects that had been planned years earlier. These fancy office towers triggered a flight to quality, with companies leaving their old digs when the lease expired.

    Here is the fate of some of those older Class A office towers built in the 1980s, after the tenants moved to one of those new fancy towers: The landlords defaulted on the loans and let the old towers go back to the lenders – the CMBS investors – which then sold those towers in foreclosure sales at gigantic losses of 82% and 88% (which I analyzed here earlier this year).

    Office REITs Massacred as the Future these Office Markets Were Built for Got Cancelled by Working-from-Home

    ————————————-

    The world financial markets are also at war with reality now and London is a good venue to view for some idea of the dystopia that is global finance.

    Bank of England Bought No Bonds Today, after Buying only £22 Million on Monday, instead of £5 Billion per Day

    #117834
    aspnaz
    Participant

    Red said

    The fun is starting to get real for those based in the fiction of finance.

    Soon Europe will be squealing from its energy diet, at which time EU malting is going to die. Without any alternatives, I am exploring Chinese malting companies for malted barley. China has a huge number of malting companies but as with all things in China, it is a matter of trial and error to find the company that produces good stuff, and then, to discover whether they can produce it consistently. I am ordering 5 kg from all the companies that will provide such a small sample. This will be an interesting project … I think it is about my tenth on-going project at the moment.

    #117835
    Red
    Participant

    @aspnaz: “Without any alternatives, I am exploring Chinese malting companies for malted barley.”

    “energy diet” or forced/self imposed austerity? Get that brewing going there will be lots of games to watch, just hope not to be included on the roster.

    Good fun that brewing thing. Have you tried making your own malt from scratch starting with the raw barely. I’ve done that back in the 80’s/90’s. If you can find a strain of hops you like it isn’t too difficult. A very old Croatian friend also showed me that roasting clean barely and then grinding it can make a fair substitute for coffee. Good luck and lots of glazed eye fun ahead!

    #117836
    aspnaz
    Participant

    Red said

    Have you tried making your own malt from scratch starting with the raw barely.

    The chat rooms mention this every so often but I have never tried. It sounds like a lot of work and would require a fair bit of skill, add to that, I am guessing it would be difficult in the heat of Taiwan. But, the way the world is going, I may not have any choice, if I can still get the barley. No longer a day of brewing, a couple or more weeks of waiting, then five or so weeks of drinking … now I have to add malting to the tasks … indeed more glazed eye fun.

    #117837
    anticlimactic
    Participant

    Nuclear Weapons in Poland

    The Cuban missile crisis has always been portrayed as Russia threatening to install nuclear missiles in Cuba and then backing down.

    It is only recently that I read that the US had nuclear missiles in Turkey at the time and that they were subsequently removed.

    This indicates that Russia used Cuba to make a point, successfully.

    Russia has said it would use nuclear weapons as a last resort. I interpret this to mean that if Russia was being attacked and conventional weapons were not adequate for defense then they use all means available to protect Russia, including nuclear.

    If Poland did host nuclear weapons what would Russia’s strategy be?

    #117838
    anticlimactic
    Participant

    PUTIN

    Replacing Putin has been an aim of the West for years, but who would replace him?

    RT had an article a some time ago where they looked at all the popular politicians who could possibly replace him. One was on the left [Communist] but all the others were on the far right.

    Putin has been incredibly restrained in his dealings with the West despite massive provocation. The article concluded that after Putin Russia would become far more aggressive.

    #117839
    zerosum
    Participant

    “What do you think of this?

    Where the fuck did everybody go?


    I am expecting some brownie points from the AGW crowd for linking to this loonie leftist.”

    Here are some brownie points.
    We can say, “no news is good news”
    ———–

    #117840
    Germ
    Participant

    Now ……. mRNA Flu jabs !!!

    Following the success of the use of messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccines to combat COVID-19, companies are using the technology to combat other viruses, including influenza. These are the first major Phase III trials using mRNA vaccines since the COVID trials.”

    https://www.wwaytv3.com/wilmington-participating-in-mrna-flu-vaccine-trials/

    They are insane!

    #117841
    zerosum
    Participant

    No comment.
    No new news.
    No new crystal ball projection.
    Energy problems everywhere.

    #117843
    Afewknowthetruth
    Participant

    I am trying to understand why RIM and others keep posting completely irrelevant/inappropriate narratives relating to atmospheric CO2.

    The graph in today’s Debt Rattle depicts the situation when the atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged 230 ppm and ‘bounced’ between 180 ppm and 260 ppm, as a consequence of Milnkovitch Cycles causing relative warming and then cooling of the Earth on a regular basis.

    https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/wp-content/plugins/sio-bluemoon/graphs/co2_800k.png

    The Debt Rattle graph and commentary is a depiction of the state of affairs long before the massive release of CO2 into the atmosphere by humans, commencing around 10.000 years ago but going into ‘hyperdrive’ since World War Two.

    The surge in atmospheric CO2 since humans commenced desequestrering previously sequestered carbon is the fastest in geological history, far exceeding that of the Permian Extinction Event of 252 million years ago by at least two orders of magnitude, and the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 has been increasing rapidly since Keeling commenced measurement in 1958, from less than 1 ppm per annum to well over 2.5 ppm per annum, directly corresponding to the increased extraction and burning of fossil fuels..

    The current level is a little under 420 ppm as a consequence of the seasonal change in photosynthetic activity, and will hit a new record high of about 423 ppm in May of 2023. That will be 423 – 230 = 193 ppm above the level that applied when the temperature led the atmospheric CO2 concentration..

    We should note that the Earth is now so radically altered compared to how it was just 50 years ago that geochemists (and others) describe the geological age we live in as the Anthropocene, the stability of the Halocene that allowed human civilisations to develop having been destroyed by human activity so quickly.

    I vividly remember the dominant narrative of the 1960s, which was a narrative of fear of a mini ice age rendering much of the inhabited world uninhabitable. Of course, atmospheric CO2 was only about 40 ppm above the pre-industrial base line of 280 ppm at that time. Now it is close to 140 ppm above the pre-industrial baseline and rising faster than ever because the natural systems that processes carbon dioxide have been completely overwhelmed.

    Obvious manifestations of the severe disturbance to climate stability include the unprecedented droughts and heat waves that have afflicted numerous regions of the world and the short-term severe cold that occurs as a result of the messing up of the Jet Streams and the rush of freezing cold air that originates in Arctic and Antarctic regions. One such surge of [Arctic] cold air killed a large number of people in Texas a couple of years ago and took down much of the electricity grid. NZ has been experiencing such a blast of [Antarctic] cold air over recent days.

    Perhaps RIM wants ‘climate change deniers’ to be constantly reminded of the facts.
    . .
    .

    #117844
    oldandtired
    Participant

    Can somebody point me to a link showing images of the damaged sections of Nord 1 and 2?

    Surely enough time has past for the silt to have settled enough for pictures of the damage?

    #117845
    Afewknowthetruth
    Participant

    boscohorowitz wrote:

    ‘Not that it matters in the real world. As Bish recently noted, with or without ACT, we’re headed for ridiculously rough times. Discussing climate change at this point is mostly a rhetorical exercise, typically driven more by the immediate comfort needs of our egos than out long-term concerns for our and others’ survival.’

    I think of it this way: we are moving through a series of bottlenecks -financial collapse, economic collapse, energy collapse, societal collapse, biodiversity collapse and planetary meltdown.

    Planetary meltdown is somewhat slower in manifesting than the other bottlenecks but has by far the greatest overall impact in the long run.

    Any action taken to reduce the speed of overheating taken at this late stage in the game will have miniscule effect: the action needed to have been taken shortly after the ‘problem’ was clearly identified, i.e. in the late 1960s. Sixty years of obfuscation, deceit and control of the narrative by banks and corporations and bought-and-paid-for politicians have put us on ‘the train that takes us to the furnace’.

    #117846
    Polemos
    Participant

    I tried to post the following here in the comments, but though the attempt to post is reflected in my profile’s comment count, it vanished and does not appear here. So, I think it’s sequestered due to the code. Either way, my comment/post concerns how the Monkeywerx sitrep analysis (I’ve linked to this earlier) of the P-8 he finds on Skyglass in the area of the southernmost Bornholm blast corresponds to the Swedish warships discussed in Rixstep’s Substack analysis. Basically, the timing seems off to me.

    https://polemos.substack.com/p/rixsteps-sweden-warships-and-monkeywerxs

    #117847
    boscohorowitz
    Participant

    This might interest some:

    Inside Corona

    #117848
    Susmarie108
    Participant

    Thanks John Day, for the link to Walter M. Chesnut. It’s always a sobering visit. I take the time to read all of his recent posts while I am there. The guy is brilliant.

    My take away from today’s deep dive with Walter is to stay open – the un-vaxed like me are not in the clear – with the possibility for future/potential damage coming from my August 2021 Delta/covid infection. After all the spike is a key aspect of the virus and I have no idea if it was completely “cleared” by my immune system. He points to Curcumin and Quercetin as having an impact (however not translated into a protocol for use).

    Ordered 1 and received 2 copies of Charles Hugh Smith’s new book “Self-Reliance in the 21st Century”. If anyone here wants one I will mail it your way. Give me the details. No cost to you.

    LOVE to All.

    #117851
    willem
    Participant

    This is interesting, given the supposed big push for renewable energy.

    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/GE-Slashes-Wind-Power-Workforce.html

    #117854
    Michael Reid
    Participant


    How ever did global warming become the principal policy and obsession of the government of this vast, cold, main northern nation?

    https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-the-liberals-are-so-far-out-of-touch-it-probably-cant-be-measured

    #117855
    oldandtired
    Participant

    Different lighting.

    #117857
    TAE Summary
    Participant

    @Bishko

    I am not an expert on chemistry or global warming but have been re-reading your comments trying to understand them better. You use the ink in the pool analogy. In this analogy, am I correct in thinking the observer represents outer space, the pool light represents IR radiation from the earth and the ink represents CO2? If this is the correct understanding it would seem that this is an argument in favor of CO2 causing global warming because in the analogy all the energy from the light is absorbed and stays near the light rather than making it to the observer. Am I misunderstanding the analogy?

    #117860

    Getting paid to use less energy: Cisco DeVries of OhmConnect discussing “virtual power plants”.

    OhmConnect will harvest your energy data from smart meters and devices: “When we ask you to conserve and you reduce a little, or we control devices in your home and reduce a little, then we can pay you for the difference between what you normally use, and what you are using at that time.”
    My head explodes at how this man says “use less, pay less”- but he wants a cut of your savings.
    (my bold)

    #117863
    Afewknowthetruth
    Participant

    40 years ago, NZ had a unified, state-owned electrical generation and distribution system. There were no major outflows of digital currency, other than those needed to purchase equipment.

    A proponent of looting and distributing the bounty amongst friends and colleagues by the name of Max Bradford orchestrated the dismantling of that system, imposing the private ownership model on the people against their will and against their best interests. The private ownership model included overseas ownership, of course. Leading to underfunding of infrastructure and almost complete lack of planning and substantial outflows of digital currency on a continuous basis, i.e. sabotage.

    A headline today:

    ‘Transpower warns of potential blackouts if demand isn’t reduced immediately’

    ‘Transpower has issued an emergency notice that extreme power conditions exist in the North Island.

    They say there is insufficient generation for the current demand.

    They say “if participant response across the North Island is insufficient, the system operator will manage demand to alleviate the Grid Emergency. The system operator may instruct the grid owner to disconnect feeders without further notice to connected parties.”

    #117865
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Blackouts is just another way to kill you courtesy of the management.

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