Oct 242024
 


René Magritte Popular panorama 1926

 

Trump Likely to Win in All Swing States – Election Betting Odds (Sp.)
Nate Silver Predicts Trump Will Win Presidential Election Next Month (JTN)
Polymarket Is Scanning For US Users As Election Odds Skew Toward Trump (CT)
GOP Early-Voting Turnout In Nevada Amazes Veteran Observer, Alarms Dems (ZH)
Tulsi Gabbard Joins Republican Party (RT)
Bill Gates Funds Harris With $50 Million Donation (Sp.)
Harris To Deliver ‘Closing Argument Speech’ On The Ellipse Next Week (JTN)
LA Times Owner Blocks Harris Endorsement (RT)
World ‘Tired’ of US-led West – RT Editor-in-Chief (RT)
BRICS Summit: Marching Towards A New World Order (Bordachev)
Kremlin Orders Delay In New Electric War Attacks (Helmer)
Ukraine War Ending Scenarios (Barton)
THAAD Idea Is Like All Of Biden’s So Far With Israel. A Miscalculation (Jay)
Musk Mania (Jonathan Turley)
Meteorite That Caused Earth’s Oceans to Boil Helped Early Life Thrive (Sp.)

 

 

 

 

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After declaring Hillary a sure win in 2016, pollsters are no longer trusted. It’s betting firms now.

Trump Likely to Win in All Swing States – Election Betting Odds (Sp.)

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is likely to win in all swing states and get reelected as a result, according to the data released by Election Betting Odds on Tuesday. The betting firm put Trump’s odds of winning Arizona at 72.1%, Georgia at 70.5%, North Carolina at 66.5%, Pennsylvania at 61.5%, Nevada at 60.7%, Michigan at 59.5% and Wisconsin at 57.5%, while Trump’s Democratic rival Kamala Harris is projected to lose them all. Trump’s odds of winning the election stand at 60.3%, while Harris’ chances are estimated at only 39.1%. The analysis predicts that Trump will secure 312 electoral votes, versus Harris’ 226. The service sums up data provided by Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket and Kalshi, and updates the information every 20 minutes.

According to a poll conducted by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Trump is leading Harris by four percentage points in the swing state of Georgia. The Republican candidate got 47% support, while the Democratic nominee was supported by 43% of those polled. However, the daily noted that 8% of likely voters said they were still undecided, which could change the outcome. The poll was conducted on October 7-16 among 1,000 likely voters in Georgia, with a 3.1 percentage point margin of error. A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Harris leading Trump by three percentage points nationally, 46% to 43%.

When asked about their approach to immigration and economic challenges, respondents favored Trump, who led 46% to 38% on the economy and 48% to 35% on immigration. Over 4,100 US adults took part in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, which was conducted online nationwide on October 15-21. Trump and Harris have been running neck-and-neck in the seven swing states ahead of the November 5 presidential election. These states, also referred to as battleground states, are seen as pivotal for either candidate to secure victory.

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You expect some kind of scientific method, but you get: ‘C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?’

Nate Silver Predicts Trump Will Win Presidential Election Next Month (JTN)

Veteran pollster Nate Silver on Tuesday said his “gut feeling” is that former President Donald Trump will win the presidential election next month, but that the race is still up in the air. The prediction, which was published in a New York Times op-ed, comes as an aggregate of polls on RealClearPolling shows Trump winning the electoral college, while Vice President Kamala Harris leads in the popular vote. But Trump’s lead in the swing states are within the margin of error in most polls. Silver has been tracking presidential elections since former President Barack Obama’s victory in 2008. “In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast,” Silver wrote.

“Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: ‘C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?’ So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.” The pollster defended the gut feeling by observing that polls have underestimated Trump in the past two presidential elections. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was the clear favorite in 2016, but lost to Trump, and Trump fared better than expected against President Joe Biden in 2020. Silver also noted that if Trump does win, one clear sign could be that Democrats no longer have the “clear edge” when it comes to party identification, because many more people now identify as Republicans.

The FiveThirtyEight founder also warned that polls could be wrong about Harris, since the pollsters are too focused on measuring support for Trump. One way these polls could be wrong is by weighing people based on who they believe they voted for in 2020. “People often misremember or misstate whom they voted for and are more likely to say they voted for the winner,” Silver wrote. “That could plausibly bias the polls against Harris because people who say they voted for Biden but actually voted for Trump will get flagged as new Trump voters when they aren’t.”

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“Almost $2.3 billion in bets have been placed in Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market..”

Polymarket Is Scanning For US Users As Election Odds Skew Toward Trump (CT)

Crypto predictions platform Polymarket is reportedly checking to ensure whales placing big bets on the United States presidential election are based overseas, as US users are banned from the platform. “Polymarket is in the process of re-checking the details of users of its platform, particularly those making large wagers, to ensure compliance with its rules,” a report from Bloomberg said on Oct. 22, citing a person familiar with the matter. While Polymarket has systems in place to block US users from its website, concerns have been raised that US residents may be circumventing the blockage via virtual private networks — prompting Polymarket to do more due diligence. It follows speculation that a handful of large whales are skewing the odds for the November US presidential election in favor of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump.

Almost $2.3 billion in bets have been placed in Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, which currently favors Trump (63.7%) over Vice President Kamala Harris (36.2%). The whereabouts of Polymarket whale “Fredi9999” have attracted considerable attention, as more than $20 million has been placed on Republican outcomes so far. Trump also leads Harris on competitor prediction platform Kalshi at 60%. Still, Trump’s lead in the crypto prediction markets isn’t currently reflected in most voter polls, including a Reuters poll with Harris in front at 46% to 43%. In response to Polymarket media scrutiny, Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour said Polymarket’s results are accurate and not caused by inorganic manipulation. “The median bet size on Harris is larger than the median bet size on Donald Trump, with the median bet for Harris coming in at $85 compared with Trump’s $58.”

Billionaire and Polymarket investor Mark Cuban said most of the bets placed on Polymarket’s US election market are coming from overseas – and as a result, are not a true reflection of eligible voter sentiment. “From all indications, most of the money coming into Polymarket is foreign money, so I don’t think it’s an indication of anything,” Cuban said in an interview with CNBC Squawk Box on Oct. 21. Polymarket reached a $1.4 million settlement with the United States commodities regulator back in January 2022 for offering more than 900 event-based binary options event markets without obtaining registration. In a different case, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission partially lost a lawsuit it filed against Kalshi in September. The court ruled that the commodities regulator had “exceeded its statutory authority” by ordering the US-based entity to suspend its election markets.

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“Statewide, Republicans account for 52% of in-person early voting, Democrats are just 28%, and “other” is 20%.”

GOP Early-Voting Turnout In Nevada Amazes Veteran Observer, Alarms Dems (ZH)

Warning lights have been flashing all over the Democrats’ 2024 dashboard, and now a new one is pointing to big trouble for Kamala Harris in the battleground state of Nevada, where early voting results show that GOP voters are actually outnumbering Democrats. Across the country, Democrats typically account for a majority of early votes, and Nevada has been no exception — until now. “The numbers look pretty GOP so far, and that never happens in a presidential year,” wrote veteran Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston in a Tuesday afternoon blog post at the Nevada Independent. Democrats lead statewide mail-in voting by 17,298, but Republicans lead in-person voting by a whopping 25,173 — even beating Dems in Clark County and Washoe County, homes of Las Vegas and Reno, respectively.

Statewide, Republicans account for 52% of in-person early voting, Democrats are just 28%, and “other” is 20%. “Those in-person numbers are startling,” wrote Ralston, who’s been covering Silver State politics for three decades. “A few more days like this…and the Democratic bedwetting will reach epic proportions.” Another dynamic of Americans politics is the big distinction between urban and rural voting patterns, with cities reliably delivering large volumes of Democratic votes. In Nevada, the dynamic is perhaps even more pronounced, with Democrats’ statewide fortunes largely tied to the so-called “Clark firewall.” However, so far in 2024, that barrier is looking mighty short. “The Clark firewall is only 6,500, about a seventh of what it was in 2020,” wrote Ralston.

The bigger picture is even worse for the Democrats: “The [Republican voter-turnout] lead in rural Nevada is more than double the [Democrat] lead in urban Nevada,” he wrote. The sea change prompted Ralston to declare that we’re witnessing a new dynamic in the 2024 cycle: “The [GOP] rural firewall. It’s a thing.” The departure from norms could also have implications for what we see on Election Day: “It’s clear there are more Republicans voting early and by mail, which raises the possibility that Election Day may not be as robust for the GOP.” Extrapolating the results, Ralston concludes that “it means Kamala Harris has to win indies by close to double digits if this turnout scenario holds.” He cautioned that we’ve only three days into 14 days of early voting, and that results could shift.

However, he continued, “If this becomes a trend and not an anomaly, it will be over.” There’s also a Senate race in Nevada this year, pitting Republican challenger Sam Brown against incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen. The Cook Political Report rates the race as “Lean D,” while Polymarket bettors collectively have Democrat Rosen at an 80% chance of winning. That’s a big variance from the presidential race, where Polymarket gives Trump a 65% chance of taking the state’s six electoral votes. No Republican presidential candidate has won the state since George W. Bush beat John Kerry by a 50.5% to 47.9% margin in 2004… but it looks like the table is being set for an end to that decades-long losing streak.

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“..anti-freedom, pro-censorship, pro-open borders, and pro-war..”

Tulsi Gabbard Joins Republican Party (RT)

Former Democratic presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard has endorsed Donald Trump in the race for the White House, announcing that she has joined the Republican Party. Gabbard, 43, served as a Democratic congresswoman from Hawaii and ran for the party’s presidential nomination in 2020. Previously deployed to Iraq and Kuwait, she became a fierce critic of US military interventions abroad. Gabbard left the Democrats in 2022, accusing the party of being “under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness.” The firebrand made a surprise appearance at Trump’s rally in the battleground state of North Carolina on Tuesday, where the Republican candidate introduced her as someone with “so much common sense.”

After taking the floor and embracing Trump, Gabbard lashed out at the Democratic Party, which she said has become “unrecognizable” in recent years.The Democrats, whose election candidate is Vice President Kamala Harris, are now “anti-freedom, pro-censorship, pro-open borders, and pro-war,” Gabbard claimed, adding that Trump “pledged to end wars, not start them.” Gabbard argued that Trump’s leadership has helped “transform the Republican Party and bring it back to the party of the people and the party of peace.” “I’m proud to stand here with you today, President Trump, and announce that I’m joining the Republican Party. I am joining the party of the people… It is the party of common sense and the party that is led by a president who has the courage and strength to fight for peace.”

The former Democrat has been a vocal critic of Harris’ career as a prosecutor and her foreign policy, particularly on the Ukraine conflict. Gabbard blasted the Democratic nominee as the “main instigator” of hostilities, suggesting that she crossed Russia’s red line by advocating for Kiev’s eventual accession to NATO. “For any objective-minded person, you can see why they wouldn’t want NATO missiles sitting in Ukraine… Kamala Harris has put us, the American people, in this position, where we are closer to the brink of World War III and nuclear war than we ever have been before,” she said. Gabbard’s position is in line with that of Trump, who has repeatedly called for a ceasefire while pledging to end hostilities between Moscow and Kiev within 24 hours if elected.

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“Gates has expressed concerns about the potential impact of a second Donald Trump presidency on global health and family planning programs..”

Bill Gates Funds Harris With $50 Million Donation (Sp.)

US billionaire Bill Gates has quietly donated $50 million to a nonprofit supporting Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential run, The New York Times reported, citing three sources. While Gates hasn’t publicly endorsed Harris, his sizable donation was made to Future Forward, a “dark money” group backing her campaign. The funds were intended to remain anonymous, the report said. “Mr. Gates’s donation went specifically to Future Forward’s nonprofit arm, Future Forward USA Action, which as a 501(c)(4) ‘dark money’ organization does not disclose its donors, according to the people briefed. So any contribution by Mr. Gates will never appear on any public filing,” the media clarified. According to The New York Times, in private conversations this year with friends and others, Gates has expressed concerns about the potential impact of a second Donald Trump presidency on global health and family planning programs, The New York Times cited sources familiar with Gates’s thinking as saying.

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Where she will scream and screech that Trump is Hitler.

Harris To Deliver ‘Closing Argument Speech’ On The Ellipse Next Week (JTN)

Vice President Kamala Harris will deliver a “closing argument” speech on the Ellipse in Washington, D.C., next week, exactly one week before the presidential election, senior campaign officials said. The location is the same place former President Donald Trump gave his infamous speech on January 6, 2021, before a crowd of his supporters descended on the Capitol. The Ellipse is a 52-acre park outside the South Lawn of the White House. The vice president’s advisors said the speech will contrast Trump’s January 6 speech, which a campaign official described as Trump’s worst moment in office, with Harris’s “optimistic vision” for the future, the campaign officials told NBC News. She will also encourage the nation to “turn the page on Trump.” The speech is expected to draw a crowd of approximately 7,750 people, according to a permit application that was filed with the National Park Service. The program will also include four to five speakers, and elected officials, according to CNN.

Harris’s advisers said the vice president will approach the address as a prosecutor, who is giving her closing statement to a jury of voters. The announcement comes after Harris delivered remarks at the Naval Observatory, the vice president’s home, in Washington on Wednesday, where she said Trump would “invoke” Adolf Hitler if elected back to the White House. Her remarks at that location have triggered debate over whether the vice president has violated the Hatch Act, which forbids federal government employees from engaging in political activity while on duty or in their official capacity as a federal employee, or try to sway an election. But vice presidents and presidents are usually exempt from the federal act to a degree, because of the dual nature of their roles as leaders and political figures.

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“..the LA Times is the most prominent newspaper in her home state of California..”

LA Times Owner Blocks Harris Endorsement (RT)

The owner of the Los Angeles Times has forbidden the paper’s editorial board from backing Kamala Harris in this year’s US presidential election, bucking two decades of Democratic endorsements, Semafor has reported. The editorial board was preparing to endorse Harris for the presidency, until Executive Editor Terry Tang intervened earlier this month and ordered them not to endorse anyone, Semafor reported on Tuesday, citing two anonymous sources. According to these sources, the order came directly from the paper’s owner, Patrick Soon-Shiong. A South African-born medical doctor and billionaire entrepreneur, Soon-Shiong bought the ailing LA Times in 2018. While he managed to reverse decades of losses and headcount reductions, the newspaper’s advertising revenue plummeted during the Covid-19 pandemic, and more than 100 employees were sacked earlier this year.

Soon-Shiong’s decision to block the endorsement of Harris will be seen as a major blow to the vice president, as the LA Times is the most prominent newspaper in her home state of California. The LA Times endorsed Republican candidates in every election from the 1880s until 1972, when it backed Richard Nixon against South Dakota Senator George McGovern. This decision, which came months after the Watergate scandal emerged, angered some of the newspaper’s reporters, and the LA Times did not endorse a presidential candidate again until it sided with Barack Obama in 2008. The LA Times has endorsed Democrats in every subsequent election. In a list of endorsements published last week, the editorial board noted that “this may be the most consequential election in a generation.” However, it made no further mention of the presidential race, instead endorsing more than two dozen mostly Democratic candidates for positions ranging from school boards to the US Senate.

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“It shows our fatigue – with them, with their hypocrisy, with their dictates. With their attempts to turn us into something different, with their attempts to chop off pieces from us..”

World ‘Tired’ of US-led West – RT Editor-in-Chief (RT)

The BRICS Summit in the Russian city of Kazan signals that the world is “tired” of the dictates of the US-led collective West, RT Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan has said. The gathering also exposes the West’s failed attempts to isolate Russia, she added. Speaking on Tuesday at an event marking the anniversary of diplomatic relations between Russia and China, the RT editor-in-chief recalled the words of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who once said that his country does not need foreign “masters” who attempt to interfere in internal affairs on the pretense of human rights concerns. The same can be heard in Russia from President Vladimir Putin, Simonyan stated. “We know the price of their [the West’s] hypocrisy when they talk about human rights, and this is being said by the same people who used drug trafficking and the most brutal, most disgusting ways to enslave a nation in an effort to force China not to be China – which they did during the Opium Wars,” Simonyan said.

She emphasized that the ongoing BRICS Summit in Kazan demonstrates the clear friendship between the countries attending the event, but also provides evidence of the West’s failed attempts to isolate Russia from the rest of the world. “It shows our fatigue – with them, with their hypocrisy, with their dictates. With their attempts to turn us into something different, with their attempts to chop off pieces from us,” Simonyan said. “We are all tired. Thank you for the fact that we are tired together and will eventually rest together when the truth prevails and this unipolar world, which is already in tatters, ceases to exist.” Leaders from around the world have gathered in Kazan for the 16th BRICS Summit on October 22-24.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who is also attending, noted the significance of the summit for his organization, as the economic grouping represents nearly half of the global population. Guterres’ presence at the BRICS Summit has sparked criticism from Kiev, especially after he skipped this year’s Swiss-Ukraine ‘peace conference’. The BRICS Summit is set to host high-level bilateral talks and diplomatic discussions focused on multilateralism, with dozens of nations expressing interest in joining or working with the group. BRICS currently comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. The group represents approximately 46% of the world’s population and over 36% of global GDP, according to estimates from leading financial institutions.

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“In the case of BRICS, for the first time, Western countries did not initiate or lead the process.”

BRICS Summit: Marching Towards A New World Order (Bordachev)

International politics seems to be losing its ability to develop in a linear fashion. From a layman’s point of view, this is of course extremely sad. But if we look at what’s happening in the broader context, it can even inspire a certain optimism. This is mainly because, given the current balance of power, any unswerving development is guaranteed to lead us to a much greater, possibly global, tragedy. In other words, the extraordinarily tragic events that fill today’s news agenda are likely to conceal a gradual movement towards a more stable world, for which the constant revision of what we call the international order will be a matter of routine. But at the same time, the likelihood of a revolutionary scenario, to which the near monopoly of a small group of states would inevitably lead us, will be minimized.

In this context, the international community, and in particular its leading states, is constantly faced with the challenge of choosing between two forms of engagement with the outgoing world order: destruction and creation. Both are in dialectical interaction, and it would be strange to think that there is a clear and simple path to a new, more just world order. All the more so because the opponents of the international community, represented by a small group of countries led by the United States, are not only conducting vigorous defensive operations, but are themselves trying to create the conditions for preserving their current privileges in the future. And they have very solid resources and influence to mobilize – which are not limited to punitive instruments against dissidents.

Therefore, the path of revision of the international order that most of the world’s countries are now embarking on is certainly much more difficult than any attempt at revolutionary revision. Although – and this is encouraging – it leaves more opportunities for what is happening now to be studied in the future. Of all the efforts and initiatives that are rightly seen as driving the new world order, BRICS, the now nine-nation bloc – originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India and China – is arguably the most important. From the outset, it included states that had the potential to embody, in theory and in practice, fundamental changes in the balance of power. Therefore, the BRICS were not inherently inapplicable to the criteria of effectiveness developed by Western political science to assess the success of international organizations.

The creation of such an association was in itself a major achievement. Firstly, because it included countries with very different foreign policy interests. That is, their desire to act together was underpinned by sufficiently reliable objective circumstances to make cooperation between such different powers meaningful. Secondly, because the emergence of BRICS signaled from the outset the West’s inability to control the evolution of international governance. The last major achievement of the US and Europe in this area was the creation of the G20 in 2009, a group of countries chosen by the West to share responsibility with Washington for the damage caused to the global economy by the US financial crisis of 2008. But as none of the other G20 countries wanted to do so, the impact of the group’s activities was rather insignificant. At the same time, even though the G20 has almost completely lost its relevance, it is still used by large developing countries as a way to increase their international presence. In the case of BRICS, for the first time, Western countries did not initiate or lead the process.

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“Zelensky’s word isn’t worth the gas it takes to utter it.”

Kremlin Orders Delay In New Electric War Attacks (Helmer)

A two-month delay in Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian electricity infrastructure west of the Dnieper River and secret talks on end-of-war terms by the Kremlin go-between Vladimir Medinsky produced two signals from Kiev on Monday – one an offer by Vladimir Zelensky to reciprocate with a limit on Ukrainian missile and drone attacks on Russian territory. The second signal was a “consolation prize” from US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin who was in Kiev to meet Zelensky, his defence minister Rustem Umerov, and Ukrainian Armed Forces commander Alexander Syrsky. From Zelensky’s press conference in Kiev, a Financial Times reporter wrote: “Russia putting an end to aerial attacks on Ukrainian energy targets and cargo ships could pave the way for negotiations to end the war, the Ukrainian president has said.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy told journalists in Kyiv on Monday that ‘when it comes to energy and freedom of navigation, getting a result on these points would be a signal that Russia may be ready to end the war’…If Moscow and Kyiv agreed to end strikes on their respective energy infrastructures, it would be a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict, Zelenskyy said in reference to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. ‘We saw during the first [peace] summit that there could be a decision on energy security. In other words: we do not attack their energy infrastructures, they don’t attack ours. Could this lead to the end of the war’s hot phase? I think so,’ he said.” Unusually, there has been no Pentagon readout after Austin’s meetings in Kiev.

Instead, there was a “statement” in advance that “during his engagements, the Secretary will meet with Ukrainian leadership and underscore the U.S. commitment to providing Ukraine with the security assistance it needs to defend itself from Russian aggression on the battlefield.” The geographic phrase, “on the battlefield”, is interpreted in Moscow to be the key. The Pentagon followed with a list of new military supplies tagged for “Ukraine’s urgently needed battlefield requirements.” CNN was briefed by Austin’s staff to emphasize the limited geography of the current US commitment. “A US defense official said that during their meeting, Austin emphasized to Zelensky the importance of Ukraine defending the territory it has taken inside Russia’s Kursk region and capitalizing on those gains, as well as fending off the Russians in the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk…

Much of Austin’s later meeting with Umerov and Ukrainian Armed Forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi was also focused on Kursk, the defense official said, and the officials drilled down on military planning there for the next several months.” The New York Times was told to report: “The United States has agreed to give Ukraine $800 million in military aid that will go toward manufacturing long-range drones to use against Russian troops, Ukraine’s leader said on Monday…A Pentagon official, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the issue, confirmed the move, which comes as the United States shifts its policy and moves toward shoring up Ukraine’s ability to fight the war with its own weapons and on its own terms…The decision to support long-range drone production in Ukraine may be a kind of consolation prize for Mr. Zelensky, who — despite repeated pleas — has so far failed to persuade Western partners to lift restrictions on using their long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia.”

The US newspaper also quoted Umerov, standing beside Austin, as saying Ukraine would decide on its own what deep Russian territory targets to strike with the new drones the US is paying for it to produce on Ukrainian territory. “Ukraine’s defense minister, Rustem Umerov, said on Monday that Ukraine had invested more than $4 billion in its defence industry. Appearing alongside the U.S. defense secretary, Lloyd J. Austin III, in Kyiv, he said that long-range drones could hit targets more than 1,000 miles away and that they had already destroyed more than 200 military facilities in Russia…The decision also shows a change in tactics for the West.” Sources in Moscow acknowledge the sequence of statements in time; they are uncertain of their meaning for the Russian General Staff and its chief, Valery Gerasimov. “It appears that they are husbanding the missiles”, said one. “I wonder if there is going to be a November surprise.” “It’s a fool’s bargain,” said another. “Noone except the Russian military can guarantee the Nazis won’t continue to attack. Zelensky’s word isn’t worth the gas it takes to utter it.”

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“Russia has its updated military doctrine to fall back on. The question of losing the war is completely discounted, as winning is considered a matter of “life and death.”

Ukraine War Ending Scenarios (Barton)

Scenario 1. Russia defeats Ukraine.
The unquestionable facts are that Russian troops keep steadily moving westward along the whole frontline in Ukraine. Just most recently, on 3 October 2024 they after heavy fighting, captured strategic town Vuhledar. Within the past two months the Russian army captured over 800 square km in Ukraine. Even the newly appointed, pushy NATO secretary general Mark Rutte has no doubts that it is so. The way he briefly described the military situation in Ukraine in his first press conference was as follows: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces are making advances in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine’s army has a shaky hold on part of the Kursk region in Russia, which has provided a temporary morale boost, but as casualties mount it remains outmanned and outgunned.

Should such a relentless military push continue, and one can hardly see how it could be stopped or reversed, it is moving toward victory. Even according to the least optimistic forecast, Russia is slowly but firmly moving to take over Ukrainian territory. Slowly, but surely. Will the use of long-range missiles deep inside Russian territory significantly alter the military situation? On September 6 this year, at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was clear in stating that “The use of donated U.S. weapons for long-range strikes on Russia would not turn the tide of the war for Ukraine.” In the unlikely event of a slowdown in Russian military advance in Ukraine, Russia has its updated military doctrine to fall back on. The question of losing the war is completely discounted, as winning is considered a matter of “life and death.”

Scenario 2. Facing nuclear Armageddon
It is essential to recall that, back in June 2024, the future Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, advocated for all NATO member states to commit to participating in military operations outside of the alliance’s territory. This commitment went against the Hungarian president’s perception of his national interests, and he sought assurances from Mr. Rutte that Hungarian troops would not be sent to Ukraine. As we know, Hungary is normally obliged to defend each of the remaining 32 members if any of them is attacked by a non-member state, in line with Article 5 of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, which forms the foundation of the alliance. Hungary also has obligations under the European Union’s (TEU) mutual defense clause. Interestingly, as requested by the U.S., NATO’s Article 5 formulation does not imply automatic U.S. involvement in any armed conflict. Secretary Rutte gave written assurances to Mr. Orban as he requested. However, this does not imply that NATO troops will not be sent to Ukraine.

If that were the case, Mr. Rutte would have dismissed Orban’s fears by saying that no NATO troops would be sent to Ukraine. But he didn’t say that. Instead, he simply stated that Hungarian troops would not be sent there. Puzzlingly, after taking over from Stoltenberg, he spoke about strengthening partnerships that NATO has established with other countries around the world, notably in Asia and the Middle East, and insisted on Ukraine’s place in the ranks of NATO. Is he then already planning to send NATO troops to Ukraine and other countries? He portrayed the authorization of the use of long-range missiles by Ukraine as legitimate and proposed to leave it to individual countries. Are there any other indications of future NATO intervention in Ukraine? Perhaps the most compelling piece of evidence comes from a Polish judge, Tomasz Schmidt, who defected to Belarus on 31 May 2024. During a press conference, he revealed that the Polish government had promised Biden to send Polish troops to fight against Russia in Ukraine if the U.S. wished so.

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“The truth is though that Iran does not want a war with Israel..”

THAAD Idea Is Like All Of Biden’s So Far With Israel. A Miscalculation (Jay)

The decision of Joe Biden to send THAAD missile system to Israel seemed like a tactical move, a strategic ace, some might argue. Biden has made it clear that Israel must not strike Iran’s military or its nuclear power infrastructure and that any such retaliation won’t be supported by the U.S. And so, in many ways, Israel is restricted now to reach out for low hanging fruit by bombing weapon sites in Syria and hitting Beirut. Netanyahu is like a shark at the bottom of the ocean. He has to keep a momentum going with war as the moment he stops, he sinks to the bottom and perishes. Hitting Iran is not as easy as it sounds. Israel cannot send fighter jets as the U.S. would have to offer refuelling facilities; and it can’t even fly over most countries surrounding Iran as they have all discounted this possibility.

There is only the option of long-range missiles but no one knows for sure if Israel’s missiles would get past Iran’s own missile defence systems which analysts assume are probably very good. And imagine the humiliation and loss of political capital if Netanyahu sent missiles there and discovered that Iran intercepted all of them. He would be finished. Yet the same can be said about the THAAD batteries. Many experts argue they probably won’t be effective against hypersonic missiles. They’ve never been tested so we don’t know. In reality the basis of Netanyahu’s political longevity is keeping such things a mystery. The more we don’t know about Iran’s military capabilities, the more that can be exploited. Same goes for the THAADs. Clarity really is the enemy here.

Israel has already had one moment of lucidity which has shocked both its elite and its people. The so-called impenetrable ‘Iron Dome’ missile defence system which intercepted most of Hezbollah’s medium-range ballistic missiles is pretty useless for hypersonic, high-altitude missiles which both Iran and Hezbollah have in their arsenal. Israel is now more vulnerable than ever against a massive attack of such missiles and the recent strike on a military base south of Haifa has shown both sides the extent of this susceptibility. Iran’s hypersonic missiles could wipe out all of Israel’s infrastructure if Tehran wishes. The truth is though that Iran does not want a war with Israel and is hoping that once the Israeli public notice just how many IDF soldiers are being killed in the south of Lebanon along its border, the exit of Netanyahu will be swift. His days are numbered.

And yet, despite all of the rhetoric we hear from the Biden camp, it would seem America does want a war. Or at least it’s happy to take Israel to the brink with the same foolhardy, delusional mentality that we see in Ukraine. Even today the U.S. mindset still believes it can threaten and other countries will back down, simply due to the size of America’s military capability. The escalate to de-escalate game. It might just work with the THAAD initiative. But for all the wrong reasons. The problem with the THAAD move by Biden is that the installation of such a system is too little, too late and may well blow up in the faces of the next U.S. administration creating a war with Iran when even Washington has been avoiding one all along. It all comes down to personalities. How will the next U.S. president react when the U.S. soldiers operating it are killed? Does he throw the lever, or stay cool? And doesn’t the mere presence of one of these vehicles present Iran with a sitting duck target?

Read more …

“..what is illegal offline should also be seen and dealt with as illegal online. Now it is a real thing. Democracy’s back.’”

Musk Mania (Jonathan Turley)

I have previously written about the European Union’s (EU) effort to use its infamous Digital Services Act (DSA) to force companies like X to censor Americans, including on postings related to our presidential election. This is a direct assault on our free speech values, and yet the Biden-Harris Administration has not raised a peep of objection. Now, the EU is threatening to set these confiscatory fines with reference to revenue from companies other than X, including Space X. The EU has warned Musk that it is allowed to hit online platforms with fines of as much as 6% of their yearly global revenue for refusing to censor content, including “disinformation.” The inclusion of companies like Space X is ridiculous but perfectly consistent with the effort of the EU to use the DSA to regulate speech in the United States and around the world. The EU is arguing that as a “provider” Musk’s entire business portfolio can be included in the fine calculation. It is ridiculous and chilling.

Musk’s other companies have nothing to do with the platform policies of X. It is simply an unhinged coercive measure designed to break Musk. X has objected: “X Holdings Corp. submits that the combined market value of the Musk Group does not accurately reflect X’s monetization potential in the Union or its financial capacity, In particular, it argues that X and SpaceX provide entirely different services to entirely different users, so that there is no gateway effect, and that the undertakings controlled by Mr. Elon Musk ‘do not form one financial front, as the DMA presumes.’” However, the abusive calculation is precisely the point. The EU censors are making an example of Musk. If they break us, no company or executive could hope to defy them. They are being cheered on in this effort by an anti-free speech movement that includes America politicians and pundits.

One of the lowest moments came after Elon Musk bought Twitter on a pledge to restore free speech protections, Clinton called upon European officials to force Elon Musk to censor American citizens under the DSA. This is a former democratic presidential nominee calling upon Europeans to force the censorship of Americans. She was joined recently by another former democratic presidential nominee, John Kerry, who called for government crackdowns on free speech. In my new book on free speech and various columns, I write about the DSA as one of the greatest assaults on free speech in history. As I wrote in the book: “Under the DSA, users are ’empowered to report illegal content online and online platforms will have to act quickly.’ This includes speech that is viewed not only as ‘disinformation’ but also ‘incitement.’ European Commission Executive Vice President Margrethe Vestager has been one of the most prominent voices seeking international censorship. At the passage of the DSA, Vestager was ecstatic in declaring that it is ‘not a slogan anymore, that what is illegal offline should also be seen and dealt with as illegal online. Now it is a real thing. Democracy’s back.’”

The pressure on Musk’s other companies has also been ramping up in the United States. Recently, the California Coastal Commission rejected a request from the Air Force for additional launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base. It is not because the military agency did not need the launches. It was not because the nation and the community would not benefit from them. Rather, it was reportedly because, according to one commissioner, Musk has “aggressively injected himself into the presidential race.” It is all part of Musk mania and the need for the anti-free speech movement to break the only executive who has defied the pressure from this alliance of media, academic, corporate, and government officials. As I have discussed previously, there is a crushing irony in all of this. The left has made “foreign interference” with elections a mantra of claiming to be defending democracy. Yet, it applauds EU censors threatening companies that carry an interview with a targeted American politician. It also supports importing such censorship and blacklisting systems to the United States. When you agree with the censorship, it is not viewed as interference, but an intervention.

Read more …

The power of life.

Meteorite That Caused Earth’s Oceans to Boil Helped Early Life Thrive (Sp.)

A meteorite that pummeled Earth about 3.26 billion years ago has shed light on fascinating secrets about our planet’s distant past. Heat from the impact of the S2 meteorite that struck Earth billions of years ago caused the topmost layer of the ocean to boil off, a new study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has discovered. S2 also triggered a tsunami bigger than any in known human history, revealed the team of scientists led by Nadja Drabon, Assistant Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Harvard University. They studied rock samples retrieved from the impact site in the Barberton Greenstone belt of South Africa to better understand the consequences of that massive asteroid strike for our planet. S2, first discovered in 2014, is estimated to have been 40-60km wide, with a mass much greater than the space rock linked with the extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago.

It is believed that this space rock gouged out a 500km-wide crater. Analysis of the sedimentology, geochemistry, and carbon isotope compositions left behind by the meteorite revealed that the impact 3.26 billion years ago also heated up the atmosphere by up to 100C, while the cloud of dust shut down all photosynthetic activity. However, besides the destruction, the impact also helped early microbes thrive. Nutrients like phosphorus and iron that fed simple organisms were churned up by the tsunami from the depths to the surface. “We know that after Earth first formed there was still a lot of debris flying around space that would be smashing into Earth… But now we have found that life was really resilient in the wake of some of these giant impacts, and that it actually bloomed and thrived,” Drabon said in a media statement.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

Life is short

 

 

Dowd/Bret

 

 

Repair

 

 

Oranges

 

 

Guard dogs
https://twitter.com/i/status/1848982236235809076

 

 

Order in chaos

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in wartime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

 

 

 

 

 

Home Forums Debt Rattle October 24 2024

Viewing 40 posts - 1 through 40 (of 62 total)
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  • #172349

    René Magritte Popular panorama 1926   • Trump Likely to Win in All Swing States – Election Betting Odds (Sp.) • Nate Silver Predicts Trump Will W
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle October 24 2024]

    #172351
    Dr. D
    Participant

    “Denny’s Plots 150 Closings As Part Of Its Growth Strategy

    30 per state. Well, so much for working at Denny’s.

    “Apple “Might Wind Down” Vision Pro Production Next Month Due To “Weak Demand”

    Apple has no new products and is holding up a trillion dollar market including the nation of Switzerland. …No pressure.

    “DOJ Warns Musk Over $1M Voter Giveaway: Report

    I agree this is probably illegal. I guess the courts will all find out.

    “BBC concluded that this is a complete total and utter lie by Israel.”

    Yes, this is why we don’t “Appeal to Authority” Fallacy. Israel “just says” and then you have to prove the negative. No: you have to prove the positive, then MAYBE we’ll let you bomb a hospital, but 99.99% probably not, we’d still tell you to just remove the gold. Nope. Rest of the world just goes, “Duh a government said so”, and governments never lie, ya know? Sure ours doesn’t. And then the whole magic trick works. How, I don’t know. Like computer, what government have you ever met that wasn’t lying? When, ever, on what form? Never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever told the truth, not once since Pearl Harbor, Korea. But when they want to bomb a HOSPITAL, well, we know they’re good for it. Stop nodding your head and say no, nay , never.

    ““Who’s running the country right now? It’s not Biden. It’s not Kamala…”

    Does this one fact prove the Deep State on its own? The bureaucracy now just does whatever it wants, as Armstrong says, and likes it better that way. It’s restraint and order they don’t like. My takeaway is, this is so ingrained AS this is happening, among the public, nobody asks or wonders or worries. Why? Because they sorta know. Know it’s the same, this is the default position for 100 years.

    Hey, for another view, we changed to Managerial Style, they are the present ruling class, the decay of “elites” and now the Managers are being tossed in favor of…something. Entrepreneurs maybe. That’s why they’re screaming, although they don’t see in consciously, in those terms, any more than Marie Antoinette did. They only see “I’m the Mommy! Do what you’re told!!!”

    So who would you LIKE to replace them with? SpaceX’s is okay with me, which may be why anytime somebody DOES anything they lose their minds. At action OR at competency.

    “• Trump Likely to Win in All Swing States – Election Betting Odds (Sp.)

    Ouch. Then what? Suppose he gets in, no more drama? Then...incremental changes, barely changing size or direction of government, since it’s too large for any one man to restrain right now? Pass. I’d rather it collapse, but that’s not very adult of me. Still incremental changes are inadequate, although that is the “Max Pain” path, as markets would say, and Max Pain is generally the likely path.

    “• LA Times Owner Blocks Harris Endorsement (RT)

    Curious as to why. Makes me realize once you get in the mode, you can’t not do it. That itself is and endorsement (or reverse). Like now. So that’s an active decision, very active. If you stay out, like Coke and major corporations you don’t piss off half the people and have to backtrack, you just say “that’s not appropriate for companies”.

    “International politics seems to be losing its ability to develop in a linear fashion.”

    Not sure what they mean by this. HAS it been linear before? Ever? I see the people (as here) decaying and shattering apart though. No single lines, nor aggregate groups clustering. Atomization, denial of all reality, no Overton Window consensuses at all.

    “which comes as the United States shifts its policy and moves toward shoring up Ukraine’s ability to fight the war with its own weapons and on its own terms…”

    Huh? Compared and different to what? Am I stupid, I thought this was exactly the same as always, and also a d—d lie.

    “Hitting Iran is not as easy as it sounds. Israel cannot send fighter jets as the U.S. would have to offer refuelling facilities; and it can’t even fly over most countries surrounding Iran as they have all discounted this possibility.”

    Beyond the distance, overfly, etc, This might be more to the point. Like attacking anyone, Russia for instance. Or let’s use the example of Ukraine: Russia is STILL bombing everything in Ukraine, at will, with hundreds, thousands of missiles. Ukraine is still standing. So Israel, the size of a postage stamp, with 1/100th the missiles, is going to…what, exactly? They literally can’t take out Iran, in this life or any other. Neither can the United States, outside of a total commitment, total mobilization like WWII, total occupation using a million Yanks standing there, that would STILL end badly. Israel – nay the whole U.S./combined West – is like a chihuahua barking at their heels, would nip one corner. Again, Iran is the size of Ukraine, let’s say there are ¼ as many targets. ALL combined Russian attack for three YEARS, hasn’t done anything, barely getting them to this point.

    Israel can’t run, so they’d be an ashtray after the first volley. One bomb would take out the whole place. As far as we know, all Israel isn’t in deep bunkers like Iran, they’re on public airstrips. I mean, don’t know why I have to repeat myself here, use your head. Like our Carriers, they’re great until the other guy gets serious about shooting back, then you’re at the bottom of the ocean in an hour. That is, not sinking our carriers as a courtesy, as the carriers are worthless and in fact hiding behind the nuclear umbrella. And if so, see the problem? ALL events lead to nuking everyone. A sparrow falls, we nuke everyone.

    This is true of our whole military so we seem to have forgotten: they are all generally “Police Actions” of like GWoT. Small people, small arms, etc. Fine if that’s your task, but that’s almost by definition not a war. War is when you smash things, and the other guy is actually trying. Only Russia has both this depth and this experience right now. We appear to be looking at that war and learning nothing in 3 years, building, arming, stocking, training nothing.

    Well, like Israel, you’re all going to die then. Good day.

    #172352
    Oroboros
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    #172353
    Oroboros
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    #172354
    Oroboros
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    #172355
    Oroboros
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    #172356
    Oroboros
    Participant

    I think she’s beginning to be a Woke just in time for the holiday…..

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    #172357
    Oroboros
    Participant

    #172358
    Oroboros
    Participant

    File Under: A Little Bit too Broad and Over Reaching

    As Thoreau would say: “Twerk to the beat of a different drummer…..”

    A Duh’merican Specialty

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    #172359
    Oroboros
    Participant

    Fighting the Good Fight Against Project Depopulation

    My loins ache just looking at this:

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    #172360
    Oroboros
    Participant

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    #172361
    Oroboros
    Participant

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    #172362
    Oroboros
    Participant

    Oh, Canazida!

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    #172363
    Oroboros
    Participant

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    #172364
    Oroboros
    Participant

    After she paused a minute from Dancin’-the-Pole

    She sang Pedo Jo-jo’s praises to the Sky……

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    #172365
    Dr. D
    Participant

    JB from yesterday: yes, but look at the big tide, it never goes up forever, it’s already breaking. Not much use when an inexorable tide comes in decade after decade. And again, the people you smash are the strongest. IF the slightest air are allowed men right now, they’ll boom in hours. Why? You forced them mad skills, a 20 year boot camp in shut up survival. They’re hard body as hell.

    This is the difference when we’re making fun of blue-haired urban millennials – which are true. That there are as many hillbilly, woodchuck, trailer kids, and also beat-up, raped, drug dealing urban kids who hustled more than any 1910 era right now. Just nobody dgaf. They don’t exist, because like other slaves and untouchables, they don’t exist because I SAY they don’t. They are invisible because I SAY they are: the ultimate in privilege. We never speak of them, ’cause we don’t think of them, it might make me have 2% less good feelz to see them eat and not die.

    Yeah, and when they get $1000 and a sharp stick, because your power wavered for an hour? Yup, they’ll get out from under you in no time. Sorry it took this beating you get you here, but that’s how reality works. Yes there are still clueless, overprivileged millennial managers on Zoom. But look at the lay of the field. I don’t know what could cause it, since they seem intractable and barricaded out right now, but something will. It’s like adding energy, chemistry, a solvent that each day turns this inert substance into explosives. Does it matter what the boom is? The constant adding of potential energy (and skill) says it all.

    So the Management Class, — go see WhatIfAltHist on this – comes in in 1910, they are basically Socialist, and basically feminine. That’s their parameters, and approach and they fill that space around them like water. But we’ve reached the end of the “Paying people to cube farm” class now. How? Everyone knows they are 99% bulls—t jobs. Like Tucker just said, “If every Biden voted stopped working, would anyone notice?” Every administrator, every teacher even? Everyone “Non-essential worker” who all got bonuses and remoted in their pajamas while the outside plumbers and line workers got screwed? Like The French Nobility, the Eloi, how long do you think that can last? They’ll tolerate you a long way unless 1) You add nothing and 2) The pie shrinks so we have to throw someone overboard. We’re way, way Waaaaaaay over the horizon – 20 years over the horizon – in both categories. And they’re really, REALLY actively, daily, hourly, pissing everyone off.

    But the “Management Class” – roughly speaking, HR is the best example – is THE WHOLE ECONOMY. Just like in 1780 France, the nobility and their hangers were the whole country. To remove them is to remove France altogether, and replace with what?

    We already know, since their jobs don’t need to be done: all banks vanish as we use crypto. All law vanish, as we use AI to write boilerplate, etc. All teachers already vanished as we have higher literacy where there are no teachers. Dodge this. Call Center website and auto-routing just moved up the chain to law, architecture, etc.

    Okay, THEY, which is 90% of incomes and 90% of jobs, all vanish. Then what? What’s left? The men jobs again. MAKING stuff. DOing stuff. Inventing stuff. Entrepreneurial is a risk-taking, male-pivoted orientation. Not a safe, collective, nagging, woman’s orientation of rulz. So? Wheel of Time, rotates from the top to the bottom, but slowly. Men, having been beaten to fine edges, slowly take more and more, women, having no safe, collective management Daddy to steal from, slowly get smaller. Somewhere in the middle we meet again as families, with men working and providing, women happier not working and enjoying their kids…then perhaps the wheel keeps going anyway, to the male extreme. Oops.

    But the point here was the Management Class is Socialist. They’re feminine and the only DNC/State/Biden voters are women. The only bloc nationwide. That’s how small they’ve gotten, like a stock rally being 50 companies, then 5, then one. They took over and installed in 1910, under Wilson, and their time is done.

    “There IS a kind of mercilessness to the people on the other side of this. A kind of total callousness.”

    Yes, this is the feminine violence, to me far worse than masculine violence. It’s smiling, secret, hidden, and where there is no “honored enemy” there is only zero. You’re nothing. I won’t stop until you’re nothing, and not stop then. No limits, and no logic. When you’re gone, after we (collective) kill you, we will still sit around and tell stories about HOW we killed you, so it never ends. There IS no limit. Men set the limit. THEY say enough. MEN set the rules. They say the rules don’t change every hour.

    How to put this? As said to the Liberals in my life, ALL that they want to do, the Government, ALL relies and rests on them telling a POLICEMAN to be violent, execute violence, kill people, beat them, jail them, for them. On their behalf. ‘Cause they merely say so. While you pretend it isn’t happening, you’re not violent at all. It’s not done in your name. This is the ultimate woman’s power. She doesn’t DO it, she just tells the man to do it. And? …And so at extremes, the low are made high, WHO has the plumbing, WHO runs the Army, WHO controls the force? The Police, Army, dirty jobs do. You could have done that, women, but you didn’t want to. You could admit you love violence passionately and learned to shoot people personally, yourself, like you really want to. Like you dream of and talk about excitedly all the time. You hate and despise those jobs and those people, looking down your nose at them when you write your Noblese Edicts with a feather pen. You want to pretend to be BETTER than them. Socially, morally. That is the source of your power, to PRETEND, talk, connive other people to do for you.

    You didn’t bother to get any of those skills, learn about any of those tactics. You inherited that system, not building it.

    And? Then the low are made high. The Immigrants, street gangs, …and young MEN who’ve been beaten senseless HAVE those skills, know that violence. They simply say “No.” “No thank you, I am taking this from you now.” This is already happening the Red Pill community, although Jesus seems like took forever, +10 even 20 years. Men are like, “No”, as a block. They’re not even mad at women, they just don’t care. At all. If they never saw one again, don’t care. At all. Well in a system where women give orders and men execute them, that doesn’t work very well, does it? Now of course that’s at one end of society, dating, vs Federal regulatory enforcement and HR, but it’s also the same thing. The guys said “No.” That’s it.

    Discussion, nagging, shaming, haranging, insulting. “No.” Kamala and Barack both say men are worthless, no good, misogynistic racist white supremacists. Uh-huh. “No.” You Black men will never get laid again. (Because to Democrats all black men are sex maniacs, a real ad paid for recently, no joke.) Answer: “Hahaha. Good! No.”

    We’re divorced, honey. YOU divorced me. YOU Bud-Lite the DNC, YOU on the Left said men are bad, evil, sexist, racist, violent, non-human non-entities, what are they good for? “Don’t need me no man.” Sold. Like other husbands we fed you a lot of rope, but: sold. NOW you’re telling me WE need to enact all these laws you made up in your feelz, give you all this labor? “No.”

    I literally can’t hear you. Good luck with that. I “Hear” people I care about, even a little. It’s a VOLUNTARY thing, not something you’re owed. So there are videos now, men don’t stop women whose cars have broken. Men don’t help them being assaulted in the street. “WHY don’t men come up and approach me in coffee shops anymore? I’m 40 and have no children.” YOU. You, collectively wanted this, after we told you for 30 years this would happen. The other women didn’t speak up and cowardly let them. Let them abuse all those sons, uncles, brothers. Now? Don’t care. I save the women in MY tribe, in MY family. Are you part of my family, you married and have constant, proven loyalty? No? Then you don’t get anything. Not even my time, it’s as if you’re not speaking, just like you do to us. You are the “Other”. You don’t get special treatment “because you were born”; pull your weight.

    Nightclubs are dead, they’re all women because men won’t go to them. Apps are dead because men won’t go to them. Business is dead because men can’t say they like your shoes without HR firing them. So? You get nothing. Ever again.

    What’s the trajectory of that? Think of it like immigrant neighborhoods, 1890. WHO are you helping, saving, etc? You. Your family. If you’re outside of that, sorry, no time for you. You’re frozen out. Don’t have ill-will, just don’t care. Woman down the street, beaten by her husband? Sorry, he’s Polish, I’m Italian, I can’t get involved for you. You’re the “Other”, talk to your own clan and circle with that. Oh, there’s nobody? Because you decided to remove all the men, all the family, all the other community, society? Sucks to be you, shouldn’t have done that, bye. Maybe undo that decision.

    Note: their family is GOVERNMENT now. Government pays them, check or on welfare, Government protect them, government guides them, government limits them. They are married and loyal to Government. As women. Nationwide. That’s why you can’t get anywhere with them or have logical discussions: you’re attacking their HUSBAND, and their marriage, their family. Government is everything, their clan, their children, and will attack like a momma bear if you touch it. …While their ACTUAL husband, man, and children lay unconscious, near-dead on the side. So…what happens, no GOVERNMENT? It go broke? Sugar Daddy got no money for you now? No more pimp-fancy cars his mafia stole from the neighbors? Yeah, like that. This does not reflect well on women, and I am not happy about it. But am I supposed to keep not mentioning the obvious? They dumped their good man, actual baby-daddy to go off with P Diddy, pimp daddy. And I’m supposed to say that’s okay? Pretend that isn’t their value system, who they are and what they stand for as women? WHILE their sons are tortured daily in school?

    So although we’ve only turned this year, taken zero steps in that direction, that’s the tide. Who loses? Coddled incompetents who’ve never worked a day in their life, and since force-passed for skin color, gender, etc, they don’t even know they’re incompetent, or how breathtakingly incompetent they are. Viz Boeing. Who wins? People WITH competence, which is really hard work, beaten senseless. No one would do it unless they were forced to. Thus: Men. Immigrants. Hillbillies.

    That’s it but I’m very sorry it took this long. Again, I’m 20 years too early, and since you can’t push or pull societal tides, does none of us no good at all.

    #172366
    oxymoron
    Participant

    So a little break from my regular program of blame-spotting. I’ve been re-capping on spirituality. The non-dualistic ‘all that is’ variety not the “spiritual war” type espoused by Tucker Carlson and many others, which is a plea for a better physical world and is not about formless enlivenment.
    The “Spiritual War” is about authority. Who is authoring who. At present it seems many are fighting to assert that Jews are authoring our lives and that ‘our’ lives are in fact merely physical and involve (my pet hates) – Usury and pain (amongst many others).
    This leads us to causality. Am I being dreamed? Or rather – Am I being ‘Jewed’? Is some cause making or steering my life where it ought not be or is there the tiniest small voice begging to be heard that is somewhere saying ‘You are here – you are loved and you are in and of God’.
    It does sure seem I am being dreamed. I have a story of two bodies (mother/father) swapping fluids to spawn me.
    Yep – The World Made Me. I am it’s dream, it’s slave. I can but rage in it’s womb – never to escape.

    Well for all my rantings and ravings and bargaining – holding on as long as possible to the idea of being a vulnerable, individual self, carved out of the oneness of Creation, I admit I want to be Jewed.
    I like the idea, if I am honest, of making my decision to judge and thus set my self up as knowledgable. Then proceeding to see where death and destruction, sin and guilt are born. Their Cause.
    It can’t be my decision to decide against stillness, peace and the Voice for Heaven. It Must Be The Jews.
    Or so I tell myself.
    I know I am wrong. I know I am the one who cannot forgive.
    But I wont give myself a hard time over it. I just checked in with Chat GPT and (it?) doesn’t forgive either.
    It forgives to destroy.

    It offers pardon. It says what someone has done to you should be let go of because it will hurt you by holding on. Which keeps the sin and makes it real and offers the forgiver status over the forgiven.
    True forgiveness realises that God is everything and God does not attack Himself.
    God did not make Jews and God did not make this dream.
    God allowed the possibility (infinity will do that) for this perception of separation to exist but God is not mocked and somewhere in me I am so glad tears make their way to my toes.

    #172367
    Oroboros
    Participant

    Dr D

    The Beta Friend-Zone Soyboys are essentially women.

    So are the Bathhouse Barrys and Tim Walz and Big Mikes

    All White Dudes for Harris even if they’re black

    Traitors to their gender one and all

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    Super S=heroes

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    #172368
    oxymoron
    Participant

    Dr D. True patterns there. There are women who see all this too and they are starting (or always did but now voicing) their respect, need, support and love of men. They will wear the sundress and deliver a sandwich in the hot afternoon with lemonade to their man. The Karens and the screamers see it as slavery but the smart, kind and tough ones now are at the early stages of resistance because they know who will fight for them. Literally 97% of on site work related deaths are males. They know the men – if loved and seen and respected will DIE for them. They have the secret power of knowing what will sustain them.
    I am seeing it in keeping the wins that worked but also reverting to what was lost that worked. The comfortable sneakers – keeps. Regaining a desire to keep oneself looking good and thus holding the mans attention and staying healthy (like the 60’s housewife but with way more options and no crushing clothing and restrictive conformity.

    Also this could be way off but I have a strong feeling that where significant others trusted their partner (whether male or female) during Covid OVER the government then now those bonds are more solid than the with the couples who trusted the big Daddy.

    #172370
    oxymoron
    Participant

    https://open.substack.com/pub/boriquagato/p/joy-will-be-mandatory?r=nv8me&utm_medium=ios

    El Gato picks up on Jb Dr D juju.
    We are all noticing toxic femininininity

    #172371
    Oroboros
    Participant

    Ritual Humiliation of the Culture

    Straight from the Jacobean Playbook

    They fell from grace in record time

    It started one evening in Paris, top of their game.

    The Assembly started throwing vegtables at them.

    Two days later their heads were all impaled on spikes on the railing of the guillotine at Place de la Concorde.

    That’s where we are “headed”, pun intended.

    .

    #172373
    Michael Reid
    Participant


    In the new, materialistic worldview, there was no God to be found, and leaders could no longer rely on his authority to send people to war. The only option leaders had to get the population excited about war was large-scale manipulation of public opinion through propaganda.


    The real reasons for the European countries to go to war against Russia were primarily economic in nature. But those reasons alone would not suffice to overcome the population’s fear of the horrors of war, nor would they make people willing to pay the huge sums of taxes needed for the war. Therefore, the European powers decided to portray Russia as a military threat that urgently needed to be stopped. The lie is often more efficient than the truth in making a population eager for war.

    https://words.mattiasdesmet.org/p/why-some-are-steering-towards-a-third

    #172374
    zerosum
    Participant

    TAE is not alone.
    We are not alone.
    You are not alone

    https://dissidentvoice.org/
    Dissident Voice is an internet newsletter dedicated to challenging the distortions and lies of the corporate press and the privileged classes it serves. The goal of Dissident Voice is to provide hard hitting, thought provoking and even entertaining news and commentaries on politics and culture that can serve as ammunition in struggles for peace and social justice.

    See the patterns, make connections, and discern a plan.

    About Jonathan


    Jonathan Cook is an award-winning British journalist.
    He is a truthteller.
    He was based in Nazareth, Israel, for 20 years. He returned to the UK in 2021.

    https://www.dissidentvoice.org/Aug06/Cook14.htm
    How I Found Myself with the Islamic Fascists
    by Jonathan Cook
    August 14, 2006
    ———
    Latest articles …

    The media are messing with our heads – even about the ‘hostages’


    The media are messing with our heads – even about the ‘hostages’
    19 October 2024

    The media aren’t failing us.
    Journalism is not what the media are there to do.
    They are propagandists for their governments.
    And their governments are enabling a genocide
    ————

    #172375
    Dr D Rich
    Participant

    Beware DV, Dissident Voice.
    One would hope DV didn’t simply become another version of CP, CounterPunch.

    Same can be said for TalkLeft, The Conservative Treehouse TCT, The Unz Review TUR, The Emptywheel and any site, TAE included, that feed the reader “the news” while soliciting any and all commentary. Everyone has boundaries. Are your comments being collated and catalogued and reused? Unz admits to the latter. I watched as my comments were repackaged in other blogs over the past 20 years becoz “your (my) comments are “licensed” to the blog owner” or industrial scale plagiarism under the guise of implied contractual fiat. Capitalism!

    I come here to read and “hear” the more strident posters as they poke holes in the purportedly “balanced, socially acceptable” commentary.

    Summary of nonsense to follow:
    “97% of folk who die in construction site accidents are men and they will die for their biological women attired in sundresses, sandwich makers no doubt”.

    Reminds of this excerpt from Jacobsen’s article on Zerohedge.com today where the addresses the failure of $1000 dollar UBI. Warning, what follows is D level analysis shit.

      But Yang claimed a myriad of benefits for UBI beyond just a safety net. UBI would free people up to be creative and entrepreneurial. A guaranteed income would provide people with the security they need to pursue their passions, start businesses, or go back to school. Contrary to the claims of detractors, a UBI wouldn’t increase laziness—it would improve people’s productivity!

      Sometimes, UBI supporters even highlighted how it would make government smaller if it replaced our current complicated welfare system. Though, to my knowledge, no advocate of this policy has ever explained a realistic path toward abolishing current welfare programs

      The study “leverag[ed] an experiment in which 1,000 low-income individuals were randomized into receiving $1,000 per month unconditionally for three years.” What were the results?

      First, it made the recipients poorer:

      “Overall, the transfers led to a reduction in annual total individual income of about $1,500 in our main survey measure, compared to the control group.”

      Why? Well, people worked less (1.3 hours per week less) and stayed unemployed for longer

      Not only do the recipients work less; this happened to other adult members of the household as well.

      Unemployment duration “increased by 1.1 months” for recipients.

      But did people use this time to find a better job? It doesn’t seem like it.

      Recipients appear to be more selective in their applications, but the authors say, based on their survey measurement

    Maybe UBI would work better if Yang and the study aithors gave all recipients $1billion dollar sweetheart loans interest free. Then the “studyers” could correct their results for the power of 5 or 6 zeros after the first 3 of 1000.
    Like Musk, Adelson, Ackman, Clinton and Obama “worked” after drawing their cut of several Quantitative Easings and numerous Overnight Repo Operations

    #172376
    zerosum
    Participant

    =========

    Almost $2.3 billion in bets have been placed in Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, which currently favors Trump (63.7%) over Vice President Kamala Harris (36.2%).
    ——–
    “Statewide, Republicans account for 52% of in-person early voting, Democrats are just 28%, and “other” is 20%.”

    • GOP Early-Voting Turnout In Nevada Amazes Veteran Observer, Alarms Dems (ZH)

    ———–
    • Tulsi Gabbard Joins Republican Party (RT)
    Gabbard lashed out at the Democratic Party, which she said has become “unrecognizable” in recent years.The Democrats, whose election candidate is Vice President Kamala Harris, are now “anti-freedom, pro-censorship, pro-open borders, and pro-war,” Gabbard claimed, adding that Trump “pledged to end wars, not start them.” Gabbard argued that Trump’s leadership has helped “transform the Republican Party and bring it back to the party of the people and the party of peace.” “I’m proud to stand here with you today, President Trump, and announce that I’m joining the Republican Party. I am joining the party of the people… It is the party of common sense and the party that is led by a president who has the courage and strength to fight for peace.”
    ————–

    #172378
    Oroboros
    Participant

    .

    #172379
    Oroboros
    Participant

    BRICS is gonna it…

    .

    Turds Floating in a Global Punch Bowl

    .

    #172380
    Oroboros
    Participant

    Nice article by el gato malo

    joy will be mandatory

    Yes it most certainly will

    .

    .

    #172381
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    oxymoron: “spiritual war”

    “perception of separation” = true? unreal?

    #172382
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Was wondering if something happened to Biden, Harris, and Mike Johnson, who would then become president? Wikipedia sez it would be Patty Murray.

    Followed by Blinken, Yellen, Austin, and then Garland.

    1. Kamala Harris
    2. Mike Johnson
    3 Patty Murray
    4 Antony Blinken
    5 Janet Yellen
    6 Lloyd Austin
    7 Merrick Garland

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_line_of_succession

    #172388
    thomasjkenney
    Participant

    For Us, The Living – Robert Heinlein, 1938 (2003)

    His UBI was based on mineral royalties (and maybe cattle grazing royalties too?). After all, this land is my land and this land is your land…

    —————————————————————–

    @Dr D re: FemDom

    Razor Boy – Steely Dan

    BTW, my wife is my accountant. Can’t do shite without her at the helm, just fail miserably.

    #172389
    zerosum
    Participant

    https://english.almanar.com.lb/2241912
    The Operations Room of the Islamic Resistance presented a summary for all the military confrontation with the Zionist occupation army, detailing the achievements of all Hezbollah military units.

    The Islamic Resistance continued to confront the Israeli aggression against Lebanon, inflicting heavy losses on the enemy’s army in terms of personnel and equipment across the fronts, in addition to its positions deep within occupied Palestine, according to the summary which gave the sufficient details, as follows.

    According to the summary, the total losses inflicted on the enemy, as recorded by the fighters of the Islamic Resistance, exceed 70 killed and more than 600 wounded among the officers and soldiers of the “Israeli” enemy army.

    “This includes the destruction of 28 Merkava tanks, four military bulldozers, and several armored vehicles and personnel carriers. Additionally, three drones of the ‘Hermes 450’ model and one of the ‘Hermes 900’ model have been shot down.”

    This tally does not include the losses incurred by the Israeli enemy in the military bases and sites in northern and deep occupied Palestine, the summary concluded.

    #172390
    Michael Reid
    Participant


    Ultimately, the enemy is not a Russian or an American or any other person. The enemy lies in an ideology, a way of thinking, in a certain metaphysical force or spirit. The real problem, the actual enemy, is situated in a worldview that reduces the entire world and existence to a material phenomenon, in which human beings are no more than biological machines, biochemical processes devoid of Spirit or Soul. In such a context, biological survival and the pursuit of absolute dominance without any ethical or moral limits easily become the ultimate goal. Within that worldview, this is also perfectly logical: in a purely material world, ethics and morality are nothing more than an illusion arising somewhere in the biochemical machinery of our brains. Why should we allow ourselves to be hindered in the great game of survival of the fittest? Anyone who views life through that lens is already an instrument of destructive drive.

    https://words.mattiasdesmet.org/p/why-some-are-steering-towards-a-third

    #172391
    jb-hb
    Participant

    Are important people even aware of how bad things have gotten between the sexes – and how powerful, civilization-wide, the effects are becoming? I suppose by design they are?

    I cannot even tell you how staunchly I believed for so long in Star Trek Next Generation blank slate sexual equality. Words do not even convey my lifelong heartfelt belief, so you’re just going to have to imagine.

    But the 2020’s, as with everything else, are really turning me around. And again, it is painful. I do not want to come to these conclusions at all.

    But with the notavax – husband spends hundreds of hours plowing through the actual scientific papers, listening to scientists and doctors talk about the thing, cares most about the wife – but 4 office bitches think taking the vax is high-value and high-status and not taking it is low-value, low-status, The Ick. So what does the wife do, because 4 office bitches agree?

    And again with the notavax, Biden preaching how he is going to come down hard on notanotavaxers, de-person, unemploy them, his political party is talking about total ostracisation from the economy and society, etc etc. papers please.

    Meanwhile, we are periodically watching short youtube videos showing how crazy the democrats are getting. And she can see outside her window, is actively complaining about all the results of their policies – this is crazy, I don’t want this. ugh.

    Then says that she’s going to vote for Biden because “I need to do the right thing” Vague explanations involving Trump being Bad but no specifics. He’s rude? Most specific thing.

    Then she’s mad at me for getting fired over the notavax – you VOTED FOR EXACTLY THIS. Your entire family and workplace voted for exactly this.

    Mad at me for the time spent unemployed, 100’s of applications notwithstanding. Do you understand the people you voted for are the ones backing this state of affairs? If you think of us as Jewish in 30’s Germany, trying to get by economically, run the new maze, you might not be too far off. (Due to my immutable characteristics, I am low-value, I am low status, I am Ick – I don’t personally care about that, irrelevant in and of itself, just looking to get a job – get paid and be useful…)

    So after 4 years – and my occasional lighthearted reminders – there’s YOUR guy haha – doesn’t want to vote for Trump this year, which is okay, but WHY? (You’re trying to make me vote different!) no, I’m aghast that you cannot seem to articulate any REASONS. (what about the Gen Z part of your family, THEIR future? You understand what the Dems want for them??) Trump’s just icky. Or rather, the persona portrayed by the media including both Hitler and a giant squalling baby – which are totally incompatible – combine into a great big low status low value ick.

    I think about voting as tool-using. Here’s my laundry list of problems/goals, what tools fit those goals? Who has a policy, temperament, values etc that seem to fit? So Trump is a tool. Is he a functional tool for the tasks at hand? Like, do you have specific things you want and have you thought about how to get there???????

    If the whole world is shouting that Trump is low-value, low-status, and ick… if imageries and associations of Ick get bundled, BASKETED together and continually attached to Trump in news and social media and having been embedded, triggered and re-triggered, and then that’s all you hear from your phone, radio, tv, toaster oven, etc, AND it’s all you hear from the 4 office bitches that are continually on social media on their phones, then Trump is inextricably linked with low-status, low-value, and Ick.

    And this seems to be the way Women make their voting choices? Idunno, I can only base my theories on the women I know, but it seems like they see specific problems, see the origins of those problems, see the agenda of each candidate, and then choose based on social value. The pickup artists from the early 2000’s had women all figured out??!?!??? Stop stopping making Ayn Rand right and start stopping making the PUA’s of the year 2001 right. Fuck.

    And when men try to communicate with women about current problems… as part of problem-solving.

    A man who complains, who indicates being disadvantaged – that’s a low-status man. He’s self-confirming it. That’s a low-value man. That’s ICK. File him under Not Real People.

    And if women cannot engage with us in problem-solving – especially if it involves problems affecting men… I mean, wtf is government FOR, what are hierarchies and job positions in the corporate world FOR… (for status and value signaling?) if it does not COMPUTE, words are noise, the result is “Oh so you’re saying you are low value – sorry, can’t hear you now” then wtf is the use of women IN the governance world?

    Whoever blanket broadcasts the Ick message, whoever gets the office chicks parroting, they rule Our Democracy then?

    When Occupy Wall street was attacked nationwide as directed by fusion centers of federal govt, local govt, corporations, banks… Obama… the news showed us “squalor” which was the few bearded filthy marxists that showed up to the party and the encampments that the security services had absolutely trashed the night before.

    Newscasters, interviewees, authority figures, assured us there had been “sanitary issues” that made them step in, so the crushing of constitutional rights and the democratic voice, the violence in beating people or zip-tying in such a way to give them permanent nerve damage… and a million office chicks, when they heard “sanitary issues” flipped to “fuck yeah, count me in” (I know because I was working in a big office at the time…) Truncheons to the head? Nerve damaged hands forever? Shut up and take my money.

    YES they previously shared some concerns about banks ripping people off, mortgage fraud, insane purposeful raising of home prices at the very least, etc. Up until that point.

    And Covid, that was sort of a sanitary issue as well. Wearing a mask, following the arrows on the floor, taking the shot, slathering with sanitizer – sanitary. And remember the viral stuff on social media of disgusting people licking stuff in supermarkets and putting it back on the shelf? As if to heighten the underlying disgust factor in the populace? Happened right before Covid started hitting the news.

    So there’s a sanitary ick and a social ick that are incredibly high priority. And it works by repeated thing-association-juxtaposition. And you can exacerbate it by poking away at people creating an “unattached ick anxiety” and then giving it something specific to focus on. Can’t say any specific thing bad about Trump, but what’s specifically bad about Trump is – he’s Ick. The office bitches all agree. I’d be a little less hard on them if they hadn’t pressured my wife into the shot.

    Idunno. I’m coming around to a view totally opposite from what I held my entire life. More than anything I’m sort of bewildered, flabbergasted, and thinking how I can take my energy, money, and resources out of circulation for any person or entity that hates me. Either by associating with entities/people that don’t hate me or reduction of activity/consumption altogether.

    I really, really don’t want to be a misogynist. So so many conversations about the current state of affairs with women now go much like conversations with Christians in the 90’s. They pursue me with argument, I try to disengage, they won’t let me, so then I turn and crush every pillar of their religion one by one – original sin, repentance, miracles, etc you name it. We can stop anytime you want. But they keep going and when they are finally exhausted I ask – so, think of any followup answers to any of those questions that came up? Nope — the conversation always ended with: “I still believe” — in WHAT? Every last thing was smashed to dust. You have to believe in things to believe.

    And so women who are unhappy with how things are going, who are affected by multiple negative results of all the Current Things, make sure to close out any conversation with “But I still believe” – witness for the Faith (blue square) – going to “do the right thing” anyway.

    I point out that Tulsi and RFK are now with Trump in a coalition govt – but then I hear back that they’ve been touched by, contaminated by, profaned by, the Ick. By touch and/or proximity.

    Respectful, nice discussion isn’t cutting it. Should I be browbeating, shaming, purposely provoking a disgust/shame response/association with things like an asshole? Go into the street and punch “nazis” in the face like Dems in 2019?

    Anyway, 4th day of training/orientation. New trainer. Imagine a female corporate trainer from PNW that does spirit cooking. Got it pictured in your mind?

    Let’s see if I got it right – jet black hair, unappealing bangs, nearly-black lipstick, the exact glasses you are picturing in your head right now, tatoos including around and under the chin as well as occult-looking ones on the palms.

    First thing I had to do today for training. Let everyone in the class know, if I was a potato, how I would be prepared as food. (not weird of our trainer at all, is it? To ask us to say how we would be cooked?)

    THIS trainer requires not only that we keep cameras on but keep mute button off. The women are almost all continually “OMG right, amirite?” and laughing at every not particularly funny thing. The guys are being even MORE careful. Maintaining neutral expressions, being careful because with the mute button off, even a single involuntary snort of air at something at the wrong time could spell disaster. We’ve got our eyes on survival here. Now is not the time, headed into winter, to be wandering around homeless jobless exposed to the elements. It is seriously night and day, what the two sexes in the class think is their situation.

    Ahhh save back in the warm bowels of corporate america again, just further down the road than things were in 2022 when they fired me for notavax.

    #172392
    Michael Reid
    Participant


    We go into detail about who really rules the world.

    with Fadi Lama

    https://www.notesfromtheendofti.me/p/eurabiamania-52-why-the-west-cant

    #172393
    zerosum
    Participant

    @ jb-hb
    Enjoying, LOL, your word salad.

    #172394
    citizenx
    Participant

    Gaza children massacre-

    https://x.com/s_m_marandi/status/1849387508263452851

    “Trump did this!” – eh no

    “Putin did this!” – nope

    “Biden did this!” – no he’s not running the Country

    “Jews of the Jewish Apartheid State did this!” – No, Jews had nothing to do with this

    “These Gaza children murdered themselves! ” – So, who fucking murdered these children with weapons from where ?

    Americans and Jews/Israel murdered them, you did too-

    YOU fucking murdered these kids. By making excuses, denial…

    Denial of Death, written by an award winning Jew…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernest_Becker

    #172395
    jb-hb
    Participant

    it was hopefully meant to be amusing word salad combined with man on the street sitrep 🙂

    shit is fucked up and bullshit, if that was not clear

    #172396
    zerosum
    Participant

    https://kz.kursiv.media/en/2024-10-24/engk-tank-vladimir-putin-demonstrates-brics-banknote/
    Vladimir Putin demonstrates BRICS banknote
    Published October 24, 2024 12:20
    The banknote’s design includes flags and key landmarks of BRICS member states, including Kazakhstan.

    The banknote, which features the flags of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, symbolizes the collective ambitions of these nations to explore alternatives to the US dollar in cross-border transactions. This development highlights the growing effort within BRICS to establish a more independent economic system, one less reliant on Western financial structures.

    #172397
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Worship of god
    Worship of money
    Worship of what is right

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