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 August 11, 2026  Posted by at 9:20 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , ,  Add comments


Rene Magritte Memory 1944


Trump Finally Responds To Iran’s Demands, Says US Is Owed Compensation (ZH)
The Long View of Iran (Victor Davis Hanson)
Iran: The Small Explosion Theory in Practice (Eric Florack)
Give Them An Inch… (Rabo)
WaPo: Trump Took Secret Flight Out of Turkey Following NATO Summit (CTH)
Why You Don’t Threaten the Secretary of State (Sarah Anderson)
The Democrats’ Ghost Dance (James Howard Kunstler)
Yen Carry Trade Blow Up Like All-Out Nuclear War – Jim Rickards (USAW)
The Fed Is Failing Its Mandate, But It Could Change Soon (Daniel Lacalle)
The Most Bizarre Thing About Fauci’s Phone So Far (Matt Margolis)
Sam Alito is Locked and Loaded . . . and He is Not Going Anywhere (Turley)
‘How Can We Help You Kill More Russians?’ German Reporter Asks Zelensky (RT)
End Times for White Ethnicities (Paul Craig Roberts)

 


 

https://twitter.com/John_F_kJr/status/2086757534241542406?s=20

 


 


I start to wonder what at least some folk at Zero Hedge are thinking.

Trump Finally Responds? Belatedly? What, Iran now should decide when Trump speaks?

This has been going since March! For all I know, “finally” is still too soon. The US has wrapped itself around Iran like a boa constrictor. And now it slowly squeezes.

Trump Finally Responds To Iran’s Demands, Says US Is Owed Compensation (ZH)

President Trump on Monday has very belatedly responded to the Iranians after they issued new demands over the weekend, or conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, after declaring a ban on all US and Israeli-linked vessels. Noting that the Iranians are now asking for war compensation, Trump is seeking to turn it around and now demands compensation from Iran “for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts, for which they are famous…”. He also asserted that American families of fallen soldiers should be paid.


Interestingly and tellingly, unlike many prior Truth Social posts related to Iran, Trump did not issue any new threats or ultimatums saying what he will ‘do’ to the country if it doesn’t comply. This perhaps reveals he’s out of answers or new strategy, and doesn’t wish to escalate militarily. The statement comes on the heels of the president telling Axios on Sunday that the US is now “low-keying” it and primarily turning back to prolonged economic warfare to strangle the Iranian economy.

Trump “Low-Keying It” As Iran Doubles Down on Demands
After President Trump said Sunday that the US is now “low-keying it” with Iran and only “semi-negotiating” following a top Iranian security official having laid out multiple stringent conditions for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil is edging higher on Monday.

“We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,” Trump told Axios reporter Barak Ravid in comments we analyzed earlier, signaling his return to an economic warfare focus. President Trump has fewer and fewer options and is being squeezed, with any opportunity to declare ‘victory’ and make swift exit more elusive than ever, given Washington would have to make huge compromises, including lifting sanctions and paying war compensation to Tehran.

“The Supreme National Security Council will not retreat from these demands, whether in war or in negotiations,” the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr has said, in effect doubling down, according to Iran’s Mehr news agency.

Read more …

“Iran’s ultimate fate now rests with the Trump administration, which apparently has not yet decided what, exactly, that fate is.::”

The Long View of Iran (Victor Davis Hanson)

One day, the United States seems ready to unleash a Curtis LeMay-style devastating bombing campaign of Iran. The next, it appears trapped in endless haggling with Iranian dissimulators. Of the roughly 150 days since the first strike, about 90 have passed without major military operations. Iran believes time is on its side. The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, gas prices are too high, and antiwar House Democrats seem poised to win the midterms and bring Trump’s war to a halt.] Trump, by contrast, believes Iran can talk all it wants while sanctions, embargoes, and military pressure steadily weaken the regime.


The war has become so politicized in an election year that several basic realities have gone largely unnoticed by the media. First, the cycle of bombing, pausing, negotiating, and bombing again may seem endless. But the confusion obscures the continuing effects of the embargoes, sanctions, blockade, and financial isolation imposed on Iran. Together, they are costing the theocracy more than $400 million a day in lost revenue, money that it can ill afford to lose. By haggling, Iran believes it can run out the clock until the midterms, but it may be only prolonging its own miserable situation.

Second, so far the bombing has not descended into a ground war. There are no embedded reporters and few Western journalists in Iran. So the world knows little about the true extent of the damage to the Iranian regime and its military-industrial-nuclear complex.Nor do we know the mood of the once-restive Iranian street. But whether or not there are future allied military attacks, tensions will only increase as Iran runs out of money and basic goods. Whatever the outcome of negotiations or further combat operations, the Iranian military and economy have already been wrecked and will take years to rebuild.

Third, however the war ends, Iran will remain at a terrible disadvantage for years in dealing with the neighbors it has so gratuitously attacked. The regime currently has no effective combat aircraft or air defenses—and no allies. In contrast, the Gulf states can field more than 700 combat aircraft, including F-15s, F-16s, F/A-18s, Rafales, Mirages, and Tornados. Israel has another 300, including late-model F-35s, F-16s, and F-15s. U.S. bases in the Middle East are home to some 300 more, including F-22s, F-35s, F-18s, F-16s, and F-15s—not counting carrier-based aircraft. In sum, the United States and its allies have some 1,300 late-model combat aircraft in the region. They should therefore be able to hit Iran hard for years to come if it resumes drone and missile attacks against its rivals.

Fourth, Iran’s problems will not end when the United States declares victory and sends most of its forces home. The regime has lost a half-century and half a trillion dollars in military and nuclear investment. Until the United States lifts its sanctions and embargoes, Iran cannot rearm. And if it eventually does rearm and again tries to supply its Arab terrorist clients in its “ring of fire” around Israel, its destitute people will grow furious at a disgraced and humiliated regime for diverting the nation’s wealth abroad.

Fifth, several unforeseen developments ahead of the impending midterms—more favorable gerrymandering in red states than in blue ones, the Supreme Court’s ruling against racial redistricting, a substantial Republican fundraising advantage, and the capture of the Democratic Party by near-lunatic radical socialists—may offer Republicans a narrow path to retaining control of Congress. That possibility has added urgency to the administration’s choice: negotiate one final time or use overwhelming force to inflict still greater damage on the Iranian economy.

Sixth, air supremacy and the normal rotation of U.S. naval forces through the Middle East, together with help from the Gulf states and naval contingents from European and Asian oil-importing nations, could keep the strait open if they decide to do so. And they may need to do so for only another year or two, by which time the strait may become far less important to oil exports.

Iran’s efforts to close the strait have already accelerated the expansion of existing pipelines and the construction of new ones that will bypass the strait and connect the oil fields directly to the Gulf of Oman, the Red Sea, and the Mediterranean.

Bottom line?

Iran is losing whether it is being bombed, sanctioned, or embargoed—or all three. Its ultimate fate now rests with the Trump administration, which apparently has not yet decided what, exactly, that fate is.

Read more …

Navarone.

“.. It relies on identifying exactly where a massive structure is already under unbearable strain, then applying one small, precisely placed charge to a load-bearing point..”

Iran: The Small Explosion Theory in Practice (Eric Florack)

Hanson correctly points out that Hormuz may only need about a year, maybe two, of continued naval support before other avenues of oil delivery come fully online and existing pipelines finish their expansion, bypassing whatever leverage Iran imagines it still holds over the strait. In Hanson’s own words: Iran’s blockade attempts have “already accelerated the expansion of existing pipelines and the construction of new ones that will bypass the strait and connect the oil fields directly to the Gulf of Oman, the Red Sea, and the Mediterranean.”


Read that twice. Iran tried to weaponize a chokepoint, and the practical result is the rest of the region building its way around that chokepoint, permanently. That’s not a threat Iran is managing. That’s a threat Iran is actively engineering itself out of, even if it steadfastly refuses to see it. “Iran is losing whether it is being bombed, sanctioned, or embargoed—or all three.” Its ultimate fate, he adds, now rests entirely with an administration that hasn’t yet decided exactly how far to push the advantage it’s already sitting on.

I said the same thing a few days ago with prose that I unashamedly admit had less horsepower behind it. Glad to see a man who’s spent a career studying how wars actually end backing the math up. In short, “See, I told ya so.” One more thing worth adding, since it came up in the comments on my original piece, and I think it’s worth pulling into this column instead of leaving it buried down there. A reader’s exchange got me thinking about the 1978 war film Force 10 From Navarone, and I’d suggest it’s a better model for what Trump’s actually doing than anyone’s given him credit for.

Without spoiling the whole plot for anyone who hasn’t seen it: The mission at the center of that film doesn’t rely on brute-force demolition. It relies on identifying exactly where a massive structure is already under unbearable strain, then applying one small, precisely placed charge to a load-bearing point — letting the structure’s own weight finish the job the explosives merely started. That’s the strategy playing out against Iran right now, whether the administration ever says so out loud or not. Much as it would make some folks feel good to crush the mullahs instantly. Much as a formal surrender with all the trimmings would be desirable, the fact is, it’s simply superfluous.

In the simplest of terms, you don’t need to flatten a regime that’s already buckling under half a trillion dollars in squandered investment, a devastated air force, a strait it can’t actually hold closed, and $400 million a day bleeding out of its own treasury. You just need to find the load-bearing point and apply pressure precisely there. The conditions for collapse are already built into the structure. The small explosion — a strike here, a sanction there, an embargo tightened at exactly the right moment — is just the trigger. Everything after that is physics, and time, not politics. You just need to sit back and await developments.

So, as I said a couple days ago, Trump has already won.

Read more …

By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

Because we really need a bank boy’s opinion of the war?!

Give Them An Inch… (Rabo)

Talks between Iran and Oman on the reopening of Hormuz are reportedly inching ahead, as Iran continues to give the US the silent treatment. Negotiators said that a deal to establish a safe shipping route was close, but Iran may now be exploring just how much it can extract from the US in return. Last week, Iran had already said that any deal with Oman would be contingent on the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. On Friday, a US official told Reuters that the administration agreed to this. The US blockade would end once a deal is announced that “restores commercial shipping without impediments.”


But give them an inch and they’ll take a mile. Tehran added new demands over the weekend, saying that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen unless the US meets “a number of requirements.” These demands largely seem to refer to the original memorandum of understanding. Iran’s additional demands include the US ending all hostilities and withdrawing its troops from the area. Iran also wants Washington to pay billions in war damages and lift sanctions on the country.

Or do the additional demands reflect division between Iranian camps, and varying levels of distrust of the US? The strait remains a key point of geopolitical leverage – at least until planned alternatives for oil exports are all fully operational. Meanwhile, the US president appears to be divided on the war as well. The Wall Street Journal reported this weekend that Trump had been willing to walk away without any agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme, claiming victory if the strait reopens. However, Iran’s additional demands may have torpedoed that plan.

Netanyahu rejecting the Board of Peace plan for Gaza is a further complicating factor. The Israeli prime minister indicated that he will not withdraw troops until Hamas fully disarms.So, yesterday, Trump told Axios that he was “low-keying it,” waiting for the economic damage to build: “We are only semi-negotiating. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.” Yet, the longer this persists, the more economic damage could build in the US and other parts of the world as well.

Energy markets started the week off cautiously after all this. Brent futures are marginally higher, but traders seem reluctant to take big positions given all this on-again, off-again news. Equity markets seem to have shrugged off the weekend news flow entirely, perhaps partly aided by US economic data. Following Friday’s employment report, the case for a Fed hike is weakening, but it is certainly not yet done for. The headline payrolls number disappointed, with a -23,000 jobs print and a 37,000 downward revision to the June estimate. In contrast, unemployment declined from 4.2% to 4.1%, but the underlying data indicate that this was due to a big fall in labour supply that outpaced the decline in household employment.

Our US strategist noted earlier that employment growth has been slowing for several months, and Friday’s report confirmed that downside risks to the labor market have not disappeared entirely since the three insurance cuts last year. This could strengthen the argument of the Fed’s doves. Yet, the employment report also allows the hawks to argue that the labor market is mostly suffering from supply constraints, even if they are a little less confident in their case than before.

In short, the labor market data may have removed some urgency, reducing the odds of a September hike. However, incoming inflation data remain key.

Read more …

One Air Force One is not enough.

WaPo: Trump Took Secret Flight Out of Turkey Following NATO Summit (CTH)

Keep in mind the Washington Post receives all of their exclusives from the CIA leak network. For some insufferable reason, the Washington Post (CIA) is publishing a story about President Trump’s security protocols following the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey last month. As the story is told, President Trump went into the legacy Airforce One, however, he quietly exited the plane via a catering truck set up on the opposite side of the plane and then he boarded an Air Force C-32 support plane for the flight out of Turkey destined to Britain’s Mildenhall air base.


At the time of the travel there was a credible threat from Iran toward the President. Apparently, extra precautions were taken, and the Washington Post (CIA) needs to tell people about them.

[…] In Ankara, Trump boarded the old Air Force One jumbo jet in view of television cameras. He was secretly shuttled minutes later to a smaller plane — an Air Force C-32A — via an airport catering truck typically used to load meals and other supplies preflight, according to the U.S. official and corroborating material reviewed by The Post. That made Air Force One a “decoy” with media and some White House staff aboard, the official said.

[…] A credible threat to Trump involving Iran set the “deception operation” in motion, the U.S. official said. The New York Times and CBS News reported last month that intelligence officials flagged a specific threat of an attack on the president or his jet, triggering additional precautions.

There are decades-old concerns in the U.S. government of Iranian terrorism plots against American officials, including Trump. Those fears have escalated recently as a result of Washington’s role in the killing of Iranian military and political leaders.

The media who are attempting to undermine the security of President Trump are not quite sure how he reentered the legacy Airforce One in order to be photographed departing it in Great Britain. However, as soon as they discover that trick, they will be sure to write about it so that our enemies are aware should the opportunity surface again.

Read more …

”:Last week, Enriquez pleaded guilty to three counts of transmitting threats through interstate communications and awaits sentencing. He faces up to five years in prison for each count.”:

Why You Don’t Threaten the Secretary of State (Sarah Anderson)

Jon Christopher Enriquez of Miami is 47 years old — old enough to know better. But on May 27, he still decided that it was a good idea to go onto social media and share just how unhappy he is with Marco Rubio and the Donald Trump administration’s Cuba policy… by offering up some death threats aimed at the secretary of state and Kristi Noem, who is currently serving as a special envoy to the Shield of the Americas. Here are some of the lovely things he posted on X:


“@SecRubio @StateDept Silence Yourself. Before you start thinking that America owns Cuba and start talking trash and calling Cuba a failure, the Criminal Court of the Armed Forces is going to begin the investigation of you as a failure to your nation. The 2 Falcon jets were replaced by Gulfstreams. Rubio, Noem … You have been found guilty of 18 USC Section 2384: Seditious Conspiracy. Both of you will be executed at 16:30. Best wishes to your future endeavors. @realDonaldTrump”

“@SecRubio I guess the only way that you are going to shut your mouth is through DEATH”

“Rubio AND Noem are to be executed at 16:00. Rubio Y Noem seran ejecutados a las 16:00. Adios, muchacho/a. @Telemundo atencion Chola Grande! Senora Presidente Mexico!”

I mean, he did it in English and Spanish and had a timeline and everything, and based on the fact that he’s defending the Cuban regime and trying to get Mexico’s socialist narco-president Claudia Sheinbaum’s attention, it sounds like he’s either mentally ill or your typical leftist. (Am I being redundant?)

According to court documents, the guy had a history of making threats to others online. This time, he just happened to choose public officials, which just happens to be a federal crime.

“Threatening to execute public officials is not political speech, it is a federal crime,” said U.S. Attorney Jason A. Reding Quiñones for the Southern District of Florida. “Enriquez used a public platform to issue repeated, specific threats against Secretary Rubio and Special Envoy Noem. Today’s guilty plea makes clear that those who attempt to terrorize public servants or intimidate them through threats of violence will be swiftly identified, prosecuted, and held accountable.”

The State Department’s Bureau of Diplomatic Security led the investigation, “identified the threats, observed the escalation, and worked to bring the individual responsible into custody, drawing on support from the Naval Criminal Investigative Service, the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, the City of Miami Police Department, and the Miami-Dade Sheriff’s Office. Diplomatic Security coordinated closely with the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Florida throughout the investigation and prosecution.”

Last week, Enriquez pleaded guilty to three counts of transmitting threats through interstate communications and awaits sentencing. He faces up to five years in prison for each count. Let’s hope he gets all of it.

Read more …

“Kill them. Murder them. Let the streets soak in their red capitalist blood.” —Hasan Piker

The Democrats’ Ghost Dance (James Howard Kunstler)


The dapper Hasan Piker, dressed for success

You can’t overstate the power of ideas, especially bad ideas, and super-especially bad ideas that are really just manifestations of emotional states such as envy, vengefulness, enmity, sloth, and greed. Did somebody say communism? A lot of people are saying it lately. This garbage barge of management nostrums for the ills of advanced industrial society has steamed back into New York Harbor and is busy now dispatching its agents across the land.


It’s yet another youth movement in an America which cultivates them at regular intervals associated with Fourth Turnings. I happened to be in college during the last one, the hippie rebellion of the late 1960s. It was mostly adolescent sexual energy tinged with resentment over the military draft and the war that went with it, plus a lot of marketing opportunities for music and clothing.

The US economy back then was still a roaring industrial engine. The comforts of that bygone time are legendary. You could easily support a family on an assembly-line job. College was cheap as hell — my State U charged about $500-a-year for tuition and room-and-board. (Imagine that!) You could hide-out from the draft there, too. The new birth-control pill turned campus life into a non-stop orgy with classes for R & R. Is it any wonder that the hippies morphed so easily into hedge funders?

This time around it’s pretty ugly for the youth demographic. College for them turned out to be a life-altering swindle, burdening the young with unpayable loans that can’t even be escaped via bankruptcy. Even the sex angle was ruined by vindictive feminism and the trans fad. Work is scarce and it’s nearly impossible to make a living at it, that is, pay for food and a roof over your head (and, ugh, those loan repayments!). Plus, work is mostly found only in meaningless service to despotic corporations. The most enterprising might land a job in an NGO, but the work there is “activism,” which is pretend work, productive of nothing but the acting-out of grievances.

These grievances, it has been noted by many high-toned observers like VDH, are real enough to provoke a desperate reach for remedies, and communism is a ready-made portfolio for all that. In the 1960s, we still had the reverberations of the civil rights crusade setting a basic moral tone for hippiedom. But fifty years later, that has all mutated into a race-and-gender hustle that adds so much piquancy to the recycled communist agenda. (Note that a hustle is a low-grade racket, and a racket is an effort to get something for nothing.) So, today’s communist program is not just a war against the injustices of capital, but a jihad against the Western Civ horse that capital rode in on, and most particularly the white horseman up in the saddle.

Hasan Piker, the present guru and demigod of the movement, put it pretty plainly in a Twitch-stream a few years back when he was rising to stardom on Uncle Cenk Uygur’s Young Turk Network. “We want more immigrants to come into your countries and then they’re gonna fuck your sisters and then your daughters — we’re here to destroy the White race, bitch.” Piker is also a leading amplifier of Jew-hatred and other calumnies such as the USA “deserved” the 9/11 attacks. Apropos of our action in Iran, Piker quipped, American soldiers should be shot at like cattle (link).

Piker is rumored to have earned over $6-million on Twitch. He’s quite tall (6’4”) ripped, and a snappy dresser, often sporting old-fashioned sport-jackets with a necktie (dress for success?) and is probably catnip to the cat ladies of Gen Z, who comprise the bulk of the activist corps of the rising Gen Z Democratic Socialists — as the communists have styled themselves to avoid stimulating any action around the Communist Control Act of 1954 (50 U.S.C. §§ 841–844), which categorizes the Communist Party per se as “an instrumentality of a conspiracy to overthrow the Government of the United States.”

Altogether, Hasan Piker and the Democratic Socialists pose quite a vexing problem for the pathetic, old, square, bloviating chuds in the Democratic Party of the Chuck Schumer / Cory Booker ilk. Other bloggers (e.g., Jeff Childers at Coffee & Covid) have observed that Democratic Socialism is the monster that the Dems have been working on sedulously for more than a decade in their Frankenstein lab of Gramscian cultural overthrow. The monster has escaped and is now out on the highways and in the hedges terrorizing the public.

You are surely aware that the entire regular agenda of the Democratic Party has for some time been patently insane. They are still wasting the nation’s patience with debates over the self-evident idiocy of men in women’s sports, resistance to the deportation of illegal immigrants, and their obviously evil opposition to voter ID. Communism is just the icing on that fruitcake. The recent primary election victories of such prodigies as Abdul El-Sayed, Melat Kiros, and Darializa Avila Chevalier, along with the ongoing capers of Mayor Zohran Mamdani pretending to govern New York City, must be giving the old guard the vapors.

And yet, the most pathetic actual commie among them, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), the Jewish, Israel-hating alte kocker, abides and even thrives in his new role as Godfather to this hatch of larval communist youth. This is Bernie’s revenge on the party that robbed him of two presidential nominations. He’s doing what all good Jacobins do — what they live for! He has sentenced his old comrades of the DNC to death. He’s stuffing his old enemies into the tumbrel and carting them off to the public square for execution. They can see it coming and it’s giving them the heebie-jeebies. And finally, of course, the Mamdanis and El-Sayeds and their spawn will come for Bernie, too, leaving only AOC in the ensanguinated ruins to become America’s Eva Perón. Wait for that!

Read more …

Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com.

“..what we are doing is the US is using dollars from the Fed to prop up the yen. So, the Japanese do not have to raise interest rates. So, the carry trade does not unwind. So, the markets don’t collapse ..”

Yen Carry Trade Blow Up Like All-Out Nuclear War – Jim Rickards (USAW)

Eight-time, best-selling financial author Jim Rickards is warning of a financial calamity already underway that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying to contain. It is the Japanese yen carry trade where the US Treasury is propping up the yen’s value. Is the yen carry trade coming to a halt and can it blow up things? Rickards says, “The answer is yes and yes. . .. Somebody wrote me and asked if the yen carry trade is a big deal? I wrote them back and said there is nothing bigger. This is actually the biggest story in the world.”


In simple terms, the problem is people have been borrowing at 0% in yen to do deals around the world. Everything was fine until interest rates in Japan started going up after more than two decades. Rickards says, “This is the engine of global economic growth. It has been powering the US economy and the global economy for over 30 years. What could go wrong? The thing that could go wrong the fastest is if Japanese interest rates went up. . .. The bank of Japan says it is going to keep raising interest rates. It’s not going to the moon, but 3% for yen (and Japanese) interest rates is like going to the moon when it’s been 0% for 20 years. So, now, the yen carry trade is unwinding. . .. The original borrower borrows dollars to pay back the yen loan, swaps the yen and pays back the yen loan. What if you can’t borrow?

What if the bank says sorry, no soup for you. . .. Now, what do you do if you want to get out of the yen carry trade? You have to sell assets. So, you are going to sit there and make a lot less money or even lose money, or you are going to dump assets to get dollars to pay back the yen loan. They are both bad for the markets. It you have to sell assets, guess what? The price goes down, and other people have to sell assets. The next thing you know it’s a stampede, and everyone is running for the exit. This is not a few investment banks on Wall Street or a few hedge funds. This is the whole world getting out of the leveraged exchange rate engine that has been running the world for 30 years. That is the financial equivalent of all out nuclear war.”

Rickards goes on to explain, “Japan is the number one holder of US Treasuries. They have been selling Treasuries to get dollars to buy yen to prop up the yen. What happens when you sell Treasuries? US interest rates go up. Do you think the Trump Administration or Secretary of the Treasury want US interest rates to go up? . . .. Treasury Secretary Bessent called Japan and said hold on to your Treasuries. We will give you all the dollars you need with a swap line with the Federal Reserve. So, what we are doing is the US is using dollars from the Fed to prop up the yen. So, the Japanese do not have to raise interest rates. So, the carry trade does not unwind. So, the markets don’t collapse. . .. It is extremely dangerous . . .. You are trying to defend an exchange rate that probably can’t be defended, and it is just a matter of time before it breaks.”

Back in 2016, long before the central banks were buying gold hand over fist, Rickards told people to buy gold in his best-selling book “The New Case for Gold.” Back then, gold was a little more than $1,300 per ounce. With the price down to around $4,300 per ounce today, that looks like it was very good investment advice. We are nowhere near the high for gold, and Rickards predicts, “I think it’s going to the moon. When I say the moon, I mean $10,000 per ounce. We have had our correction. . .. We are now heading back up again, and it’s going to happen very quickly.”

On the midterms in November and Trump stopping the voter fraud by Democrats, Rickards says, “Things are going to get rough. It’s already in the works. You can see it coming. Look at “Act Blue.” Turns out it was a total fraud. They were taking foreign money, which is illegal. They were raising billions of dollars, but they were doing it completely illegally. They are under investigation, and their board has resigned and ran for the hills. . .. You take Act Blue and Southern Poverty Law Center off line and that is what the Trump Administration has done, that is billions of dollars the Democrats cannot get their hands on. . .. In the midterms, the Republicans will spend $500 million and have an army of 500 lawyers fanning out all over the country. They are not going to wait until after the election to stop fraud.”

The Trump Administration will also stop the mail-in ballot fraud through the US Postal Service. . .. The US Postal service is going to save the day by tracking every single piece of mail (and mail- in ballot.)


Read more …

“The Fed’s legal mandate is clear. It must focus on stable prices and maximum employment ..”

The Fed Is Failing Its Mandate, But It Could Change Soon (Daniel Lacalle)

The Federal Reserve’s legal mandate is clear. It must focus on stable prices and maximum employment. In the past five years, the Fed has failed on both. Inflation remains materially above the 2 percent target, reaching a decade-high 25% cumulative inflation in the 2021-2025 period, while restrictive monetary conditions have been limited to rate hikes, which weigh most heavily on the small and medium-sized firms that generate most of net employment growth.


This failure was not merely a matter of missing a forecast but a policy framework that became narrative-driven rather than data-dependent. The Fed spent much of 2025 moving between concerns about inflation from tariffs based on ideology and a growing admission of weakness in the labor market. However, it continued to treat interest rates as its overwhelmingly dominant instrument. That is a poor policy mix when the problem of persistent inflation was caused by excessive government spending. Kritzman, at MIT Sloan, concluded that “mathematically, the overwhelming driver of that burst of inflation in 2022 was federal spending, not the supply chain.” However, the Fed’s policy was directed at penalizing the private sector while incentivizing large government deficit spending.

The Fed defines price stability as inflation running at 2 percent, measured by the PCE price index. That goal was still unmet at the end of 2025. Headline PCE inflation rose 2.9 percent year over year in December, while core PCE inflation was 3.0 percent. Both headline and core inflation increased 0.4 percent in that month alone. This is not price stability. It is persistent erosion of household purchasing power. A family does not suffer the inflation target in a Federal Open Market Committee statement but significantly higher price increases than those reflected in CPI at the supermarket, the gas station, rent payment, and utility bills.

The fact that inflation has slowed from its 2022 peak does not mean the inflation problem has gone away. Prices remain permanently higher after years of monetary and fiscal excess, and the cumulative loss of purchasing power remains embedded in household budgets. The Fed’s narrative during 2025 frequently focused on temporary factors, inexistent tariff effects, labor-market rebalancing, and the expected path of core inflation. Some of those factors mattered. But the larger error was to ignore the monetary and fiscal origins of the inflation shock.

Inflation did not appear suddenly. It was the consequence of an extraordinary expansion of money, liquidity, and deficit-financed spending in 2021 through 2024. The United States ran enormous fiscal deficits even after the pandemic emergency had passed. Government spending grew aggressively, while the central bank’s earlier asset-purchase programs absorbed a large volume of government and mortgage debt. The result was a policy mix in which fiscal expansion was incentivized and monetary discipline was inexistent. The Fed was not a brake on fiscal excess. It was an enabler.

Quantitative easing and the expansion of the central-bank balance sheet created the perception that all public deficits could be financed at artificially low cost without consequences. That illusion encouraged Yellen and Biden to treat debt issuance as painless and made it easier to sustain spending levels that exceeded the productive capacity of the economy. Yellen’s reckless decision to refinance most maturities with short-term bonds proves this. She was clearly expecting more easing in 2025 after the unnecessary rate cuts announced in the middle of the election campaign.

Money supply growth, deficit spending, and ultra-low policy rates were not small mistakes or isolated events created by an emergency. Together they created too much unproductive demand relative to available supply. When supply chains normalized and energy prices fell, some disinflation followed, but the excess monetary and fiscal impulse had already lifted the general price level and distorted the allocation of capital. Furthermore, the overall inflation continued to rise even when energy prices fell below 2022 levels and supply chain costs dropped to pre-COVID-era prices, proving that monetary and fiscal excess, not a supply shock, was the main cause.

The government’s and Fed’s responses made the error worse. Instead of controlling spending and understanding the fiscal source of persistent inflation, using the balance sheet more forcefully, the government increased public spending by 2 trillion above the emergency levels of the COVID-era, and the Fed placed the burden of restrictive policy on private sector borrowers. Families with credit cards, first-time homebuyers, small businesses, and entrepreneurs became the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

Small firms are the backbone of the U.S. labor market. Businesses with fewer than 250 employees account for more than 51 percent of net job creation and generate 58 percent of net private-sector employment growth from the first quarter of 2023 through the end of 2025. Small businesses do not finance investments like large listed corporations, issuing bonds, syndicated loans, or share issuances. Small businesses need bank credit, using variable-rate loans, personal guarantees, commercial-property lending, and retained earnings.

The Fed’s restrictive policy hits the productive economy hardest. A large company with a strong balance sheet can delay expansion. A small business with a refinancing need will stop hiring, cut inventories, postpone equipment purchases, or close altogether. NFIB data shows that the average short-term loan rate paid by small-business borrowers was 8.4 percent in December 2025. Only 25 percent of owners reported borrowing regularly, a historically low share.

By keeping liquidity elevated, enabling government excess, and hiking rates, the Fed has made borrowing costs prohibitive and often nonexistent for small businesses (SMEs). For many banks it became safer and more profitable to hoard government debt than to lend to families and businesses.

Read more …

“They’re now working through more than 34,000 text messages and 533 voicemails..”

The Most Bizarre Thing About Fauci’s Phone So Far (Matt Margolis)

Anthony Fauci’s COVID-era iPhone is now in the hands of Senate investigators, and the very first detail to emerge from it is stranger than anything Democrats spent years trying to explain away. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), chairman of the Senate Homeland Security Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, revealed that despite using the device for roughly eight years, Fauci had only three contacts saved on it. Three.


Johnson shared that detail Friday night on NewsNation’s Katie Pavlich Tonight, which journalist Catherine Herridge guest-hosted that evening. She had also watched Fauci invoke the Fifth Amendment 111 times during a combative July congressional hearing. “I can’t and my staff can’t guarantee that everything was preserved. What is odd is most of those text messages are associated with a phone number. He only had three contacts, which is pretty odd,” Johnson said.

As we already know, the Fifth Amendment right can’t protect Fauci because his pardon from Joe Biden’s autopen negated that right. The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee voted to hold Fauci in contempt of Congress. The decision on whether to pursue criminal charges now sits with the Justice Department. A copy of Fauci’s phone landed with Johnson’s subcommittee last week as well, and investigators have already extracted its contents. They’re now working through more than 34,000 text messages and 533 voicemails, with Johnson saying the material spans roughly from 2014 through Fauci’s departure from the National Institutes of Health in December 2022.

Johnson also discussed the discovery Thursday with Fox News’ Laura Ingraham, and his answers made clear the investigation is still in its early stages. “We’re downloading the phone right now,” Johnson told Ingraham when she asked what investigators had learned so far. He noted that what his team has reviewed predates the pandemic, calling that a good sign for how the download is being handled.

Johnson said investigators plan to cross-reference the phone’s contents against material Fauci previously turned over in response to FOIA requests, checking whether he handed over everything he was supposed to. That comparison carries extra weight given what’s already known about Fauci’s inner circle. “We know, obviously, his henchman, David Morens, showed him how to delete emails, or remove them, and so, it might be a treasure trove,” Johnson said. He added that Fauci’s own diaries had already proven revealing. “I think the diaries certainly were,” Johnson said. “They showed Fauci for the complete phony that he was.”

Will we get to see the contents like we saw the diary? Not so fast. Don’t expect Johnson to release everything at once. “This is not going to be a document dump. I also need to preserve documents for our investigation. We are interviewing other people that he may be texting. And if you’re going to get truthful answers out of people, you can’t necessarily show them all your investigatory material, as well,” Johnson said.He did promise the public won’t be kept in the dark forever. “So, again, I’m not going to hold this close to the vest when there are things that the public needs to see. I’m hoping to work very closely with Senator Rand Paul and his staff and release these things jointly,” Johnson said.

One thing is for sure. It’s strange that the architect of our nation’s COVID response, and who communicated constantly enough to rack up tens of thousands of texts and hundreds of voicemails, somehow only bothered to save three phone numbers. Who were these three? If there were more, can the rest be recovered? If others were deleted, why were they deleted?

The walls are closing in on Dr. Fauci, that’s for sure.

Read more …

There’s things to do…

Sam Alito is Locked and Loaded . . . and He is Not Going Anywhere (Turley)

Justice Samuel Alito is not done yet. A month after National Public Radio’s Nina Totenberg announced that Sam Alito was retiring (a story NPR later had to retract), the 76-year-old jurist told the Wall Street Journal in an interview, “Obviously, I’m here for another term. ”Looking at the docket for the coming term, it is easy to see why. Even after overturning Roe v. Wade and other historic opinions, Alito still has unfinished business. An example can be found in two cases involving bans on semiautomatic rifles like the AR-15 that are now awaiting argument in the October term.


Many of us have been frustrated by the Court’s failure to address these laws barring AR-15s and other weapons. Just last year, the Supreme Court declined review of such a Maryland law. Alito and Justices Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch indicated that they wanted to hear the case, falling just one vote short of granting certiorari. Notably, the required fourth vote could have come from Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who called the Fourth Circuit’s ruling in Snopes v. Brown “questionable” and added that the Court “should and presumably will address the AR-15 issue soon, in the next Term or two.” Now, it will.

Democrats are moving in various states to ban the nation’s most popular rifle (the AR-15) and its most popular handgun (the semiautomatic 9mm). Some of us view these laws as presumptively unconstitutional. In 2008, the court declared in its opinion in Heller that gun ownership is an individual right. The court emphasized how these weapons were in common use and not the type of dangerous or unusual weapon that would fall outside of the Second Amendment. Handguns, the opinion reads, “are the most popular weapon chosen by Americans for self-defense in the home, and a complete prohibition of their use is invalid.”

In 2022, the Court held in the Bruen case that the government bears the burden of demonstrating that any restriction upon the right to keep and bear arms “is consistent with this Nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation.” The bans on Glock handguns and semiautomatic rifles are efforts to achieve indirectly what the Supreme Court barred directly. In Virginia, Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) immediately moved against gun rights after her election. Ironically, her election not only spurred a massive surge in gun purchases, but she then supplied the lead line of briefs challenging the law. Spanberger admitted that the state law she signed would ban commonly used hunting guns.

In what is known as the court’s “clean-up conference,” the justices granted review in Illinois and Connecticut cases challenging bans on semiautomatic rifles. In Viramontes v. Cook County, the Seventh Circuit relied on an earlier ruling that gun owners had failed to show “that the covered firearms materially differed from machine guns and military-grade weaponry, which the Supreme Court instructed can be banned under the Second Amendment.” In Grant v. Higgins, the Second Circuit upheld a similar ban after agreeing with the state that the law imposes “a burden comparable to historical antecedents that regulated other unusually dangerous weapons unsuitable for and disproportionate to the objective of individual self-defense.”

Notably, in the Illinois case, Cook County argued that these are not just unusually dangerous weapons, but that the challengers cannot offer “even a single instance in which assault weapons were ever used in lawful self-defense.” That is a highly dubious claim. Since 1990, there have been an estimated 32,091,000 Modern Sporting Rifles in circulation. These are semiautomatic models, which means they fire a single bullet and then automatically load another cartridge into the chamber. The AR-15 is the most popular model, and there are estimates that it has as many as 25 million owners.

The popularity of the AR-15 is due to the fact that it is modular, with some models allowing one to swap out barrels, bolts and high-capacity magazines, or add a variety of accessories. It is also not the most powerful gun; many guns have equal or greater calibers. There is roughly the same number of Glock pistols in circulation. That means perhaps 40 million Americans currently possess weapons that Democrats are trying to ban as unusually dangerous and completely unprotected.

With the granting of these cases, Virginia’s ban on new sales of the AR-15 rifle and other guns will have to await the final decisions. These gun bans are not the only cases involving politically popular, legally dubious legislation. The first case to be argued will be Suncor Energy v. Commissioners of Boulder County, a challenge to state laws imposing damages on fossil fuel companies for climate change. With a docket like that, one can see why Alito is not going anywhere.

Read more …

FAZ correspondent Michael Martens, whose grandfather was a Wehrmacht officer, posed the question at a press conference held by Zelensky and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic

‘How Can We Help You Kill More Russians?’ German Reporter Asks Zelensky (RT)

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic at a joint press conference with Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky, Belgrade, Serbia, August 8, 2026.

A German journalist asked Vladimir Zelensky at a press conference in Belgrade how Europeans could help Kiev “kill more Russians,” prompting Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to raise his eyebrows in apparent disbelief.The provocative question came from Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung correspondent Michael Martens during a joint press conference following Zelensky’s talks with Vucic on Saturday.“Can you tell us Europeans what can we concretely do to help you to kill more Russians?” Martens asked. He hastily added he meant “more Russian soldiers, of course,” before asking whether the two leaders had discussed military cooperation. Footage shows Vucic raising his eyebrows in apparent disbelief as he hears the question.


Clips of the exchange quickly went viral on social media, triggering a wave of angry reactions. Some users denounced the wording as offensive and accused Martens of “incitement to hatred.” Others branded him a “Nazi,” noting that his grandfather served as an officer on a Wehrmacht command staff during World War II – a fact that Martens himself has acknowledged. Martens later doubled down on X, insisting there was nothing “scandalous” or “shocking” about his wording and expressing surprise at the backlash. “It is not scandalous to ask the Ukrainian President how Europe can help Ukraine to kill more Russians. That is what is needed,” he wrote. “Outside Barbieworld, this is how wars are fought.”

Although Martens’ question was directed at Zelensky, Vucic answered first. “We did not discuss military cooperation today,” the Serbian president said. “What happens when the war ends is another matter. And speaking about killing, I hope all killing will end.” Zelensky, meanwhile, used the question to reiterate his demands that Kiev’s Western backers send more money and slap more sanctions on Moscow. Serbia remains one of the few European countries to maintain close ties with Moscow since the Ukraine conflict escalated in 2022. As an EU candidate state, however, it has faced pressure from Brussels to distance itself from Russia.

Last month, Vucic accused the EU of trying to “govern Serbia by email” and dictate its foreign relations. Ahead of his meeting with Zelensky, he reiterated that Belgrade will follow its own course and not join sanctions against Russia. Martens’ question comes amid growing Russophobia in the West, ranging from anti-Russian rhetoric by politicians, journalists and other public figures to restrictions on Russian media, culture, and language and the destruction of Soviet memorials.

Just this week, Polish President Karol Nawrocki made his own remarks about killing Russians, telling a rally in Warsaw that helping Ukraine do so was in Poland’s strategic interest. “Wherever the Moskal is being fought, Poland helps,” he said, using a historic derogatory term for Russians. Commenting on the remark, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called such outbursts “clinical Russophobia,” while lamenting that this had become “the norm” for many in the West.

Read more …

“The Liberals Good Intentions Brought Bad Results”.

87-year old Paul Craig Roberts reminisces..

End Times for White Ethnicities (Paul Craig Roberts)

Liberalism has completely failed, bringing down society along with itself. The country I live in today bears no resemblance to the one I grew up in. A homogeneous population with a common set of beliefs has been turned into a tower of babel in which there are no common interests. Christianity, the basis for moral behavior, has been marginalized. Crime has exploded. Truth has been supplanted by narratives that serve special interests and the further breakup of society. Feminism has destroyed the relationship between men and women, further weakening family and society. Business serves profit at all costs.


Constitutional rights are set aside for the purpose of creating race-based privileges for favored groups. The purpose of education has changed from enculturation to destruction of the belief system. Perversity has been normalized while normality is ostracized. This is the complete destruction of a civilization. White ethnic countries are being overrun without resistance by peoples of color. White females are unprotected by their governments from rape by immigrant-invaders throughout Europe, especially in the UK and Sweden. Dark skin color suffices without achievement for appointment as professor at Cambridge University and most other universities. In Minneapolis, Minnesota, public loudspeakers call for Muslim prayer six times a day, including at 3:30 a.m.

Muslim communities are appearing all over the US with demands for Sharia law. This is not assimilation. It is the fall of a civilization from the destruction of its belief system. Today’s youth having never experienced America do not know what has been lost. The MAGA hope of renewal has been defeated. Trump and the Republicans fight for Israel, not for America. Democrats fight for immigrant-invaders. No party fights for America. Why? Is the answer that no one any longer believes in America?

My opposition to immigrant-invaders is not racist. Like Mohammad Ali I have no opposition to Hispanics, Muslims, Asians. I stand in defense of Western Civilization. The calls for Sharia Law from Muslim communities springing up in the US, the calls over public loudspeakers in Minneapolis for Muslim prayer six times a day are the opposite of assimilation into American beliefs and mores. They are an attack on a civilization, a civilization that is rapidly collapsing from the white liberal destruction of its belief system. Immigrant-invaders are turning our country into theirs. Hispanics have even established Spanish as a second official language.

Americans have two kinds of “people of color” problems. One is the inflow of displaced persons from Washington’s wars for Greater Israel in the Middle East and North Africa and from Hispanics who have made Spanish a second language for America. The other is America’s own blacks, many half white, descendants of slaves provided as a labor force by the black King of Dahomey so that the fertile land in the New World would have labor to work it. The slaves were no worse treated and owed no more of their labor time to their owners than “free” American owe their multiple tax authorities today.

In my youth black American families were as respectable as white families. It was Democrat US Senator and Harvard University Professor Daniel Patrick Moynihan who provided the evidence that it was the white liberals’ welfare policies for blacks that destroyed the black family and produced single mothers and fatherless children.

Blacks were a part of the society I grew up in. The middle class and upper class relied on them. I did not go to school with them because in the South where I lived schools were neighborhood based. If you lived in a middle class neighborhood, you went to school with your own kind, not with rich kids or poor kids, of which there were plenty of white ones.

As I have reported many times, separate water fountains, separate toilet facilities, had a history in the fear of infectious diseases dating from pre-antibiotic times which, rightly or wrongly, were associated with lower income people. People actually believed that you could catch syphilis from toilet seats. Busses were segregated because blacks did heavy work and had soiled clothes, but white women would not go to town unless well dressed. Soiled bus or streetcar seats ruined their dresses.

The actual facts were ignored by the northern liberals who delighted in their feelings of moral superiority over alleged Southern suppression of former slaves. White northerners blamed Southern opposition to coerced integration on racism, but coerced integration was resisted because it was seen as a second Reconstruction. Out of this moral self-righteousness arose white liberals teaching black Americans to hate white people on whom all black underperformance and failure was blamed. Today we have the situation where a white person of any gender or age risks being sucker-punched by a hate-filled black and left unconscious on the sidewalk.

White liberals explain away the hate-driven violence that they created as “retribution for white racism.” Hasan Piker, an unofficial spokesman for the Democrat Party’s rapidly expanding left-wing component, said: “We want more immigrants to come into our counties and then they’re going to fuck your sisters and then your daughters. We’re here to destroy the White Race.” The response of the white liberals is: “Oh you poor dears, so abused by white racism, anything you need from us, we will make amends.”

If race hatred existed prior to the white liberals teaching it, how was it possible that white households employed black Americans to cook their food, help raise their children, and in some cases have responsibility for the weekly household budget. I have memories of my mother and her black helpmate chatting amicably washing clothes in the bathtub and then hanging them up to dry on clothes lines. If the races hated one another, blacks would not have been involved in intimate family matters such as food preparation and child raising.

I think that school integration helped to create racial animosity on the part of blacks. For whatever the reason, blacks were not competitive with whites in the schoolroom. This became obvious to the black children, to the teachers, and to the black parents, and out of a sense of inferiority arose animosity that was fertile ground for the white liberals’ sermons on white racism. Standards were lowered and grades inflated until we had high school graduates who could not spell or read.

Next amelioration was used to compensate for disparate performance. Affirmative action introduced race-based preferences which developed into DEI and the replacement of a merit system by race-based privileges. Even black Americans who made it could not be sure they had, and this added to resentment.

School integration also destroyed the Parent-Teachers Associations (PTA) that maintained close cooperation between parents and teachers. It was no big thing to attend an evening meeting at the local school But integration required busing across town, and meetings in distant and strange neighborhoods were not attractive. Disputes and antagonisms took the place of cooperation with parents lining up with kids against teachers, especially if the teacher was white and the parents back. If the black kid didn’t make all A’s, it was the fault of white racism.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

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Home Forums Debt Rattle August 11 2026

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  • #247104

    Rene Magritte Memory 1944 • Trump Finally Responds To Iran’s Demands, Says US Is Owed Compensation (ZH) • The Long View of Iran (Victor Davis Hanson)
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle August 11 2026]

    #247116
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Their discussion:

    I’m just calling reality out.

    #247117
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    This is the best from yesterday.

    #247118
    Dr. D
    Participant

    Yesterday:
    ““The Democrats’ Ghost Dance
    “Kill them. Murder them. Let the streets soak in their red capitalist blood.” —Hasan Piker

    Well, that’s pretty straightforward. Exact duplicate of Marx himself. Yup. Never more glad for free speech.

    Sooo…we have an equivalent on the Right, yes? Someone who publicly calls for the murder of, essentially everyone? Daily? Hmmm, I think maybe not. I can’t think of one. Murder the employees of the EPA? Let the streets run red with the blood of the Social Security Administration? Uhhh, don’t think so. There isn’t a crazy on the right within 50 miles of that position. …And there ARE crazies. But any man who works then owns his labor? THAT man just die.

    Theft must not be interfered with. Hasan, a multi-millionaire, says YOU can’t own property. Anything you own is his. Or the streets will run red with your blood. That’s his vow and promise. Not Schumer, not Trump; You.

    “In just TWO YEARS, underground pipelines will suck 50-70% of the oil that currently flows through the Strait of Hormuz…”

    How is it those very obvious pipelines were never built before? Says Tom Luongo, who points out that London sits on chokepoints and charges tolls, starting internal wars for 100 years if anyone interferes. Does it seem like there could be any other plausible explanation?

    “Iran’s IRGC is holding the line, reiterating that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen to international shipping only after the United States accepts all of its conditions,”

    Okay, but we don’t care. We don’t need anything from the strait. Did you think of that? Iran is now Somalia and will be permanently. Congratulations.

    “The US hope was that Iran and its economy would just collapse from within, the masses would take to the streets, and the government of the Ayatollah would be overthrown. This has proven delusional time and again.”

    Delusional of reporters and experts. Was this ever the official position? Or did you make it all up?

    “Iranian SNSC: We will never compromise, whether in war or in negotiations.”

    In that case, Iran has invaded and is occupying Oman, and intends to never leave. They are reserving the right to attack every neighbor at will as official policy, forever.

    Note, it may be advantageous TO drive oil to $200/bbl if Europe won’t collapse. We will survive it, they won’t. There may be no other way to stop their deadly colonialism and 2M man ethnic cleansing on the Eastern Front, as well as in their own nations, eg Ireland, which may have ceased to exist. Which is next, Canada or UK? Oddly, I feel France and Sweden far more likely to expel and preserve their cultures.

    “• Media Fawning of Senate Candidate Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed Begins (CTH)

    That means he’s the definite product of billionaire Oligarchs and not resistance at all. They LIKE him. Has he been attempted assassination 15 times yet? I rest my case. Who is his only voting bloc? AWFULs. And other rich white liberals. That’s also not #Resistance. Only White Pepo. That was true of, eg Kamala too.

    “people making less than a million dollars could see their taxes go up. I just want to be very clear.” (M4A)

    Wow! He can’t even LIE correctly. It’s quite possible that M4A would see cost go DOWN, such is the unprecedented fraud Obama engineered into Obamacare. He could argue that. (We’re merely swapping “Profits” for inevitable fraud, where govt fraud will always outpace it by multiples … eventually. As in UK and Canada. However, we have that here already as all our “Private” care is actually dictated by government. The point of Obamacare, now well-proven, was to destroy all medicine, health, independence, cause a Soviet swap-out of the system under Cloward-Pivon. …As said Day One in Hillary, 1993, Right Again!)

    Anyway, he’s too dumb to lie, and doesn’t know the first thing about any of the issues, or he’d deflect using complication. …Like the Medicare Gap coverage argument.

    Actually, no one wants to solve the problem at all, which takes seconds. Have State-Run clinic care for very basic things. That’s legal and possible today. It would cover, say, antibiotics and broken bones, but not cancer. It’s public health but only on the cheap side. People would support this and it would work, buying real or catastrophic insurance for the back end risks. They do not WANT it fixed, therefore. They WANT it broken. If you say you want a Taco, and I put $20 on the table and hand you a phone and you don’t call, you don’t really want one do you? Same here. Fixed in 30 days, any state in the Union can start. Nope.

    “”I’m not here to disavow people’s views,” El-Sayed said at the time”

    This is Alinsky’s “Diversity of Views” tactic. If you have a protest and some hold signs peacefully, while others murder officers, that’s a “Diversity of Tactics”. Yet you’re all Brothers in Socialism, see? Yeah, see, that does NOT work or happen on the Right. If someone riots (J6) or carries a Nazi flag, they are instantly disavowed as “Not us” and even asked to be prosecuted normally, under the law. Sayed is following two parts: One, all ways to destroy the U.S. are equally good, no “Disavow”, and two, LIE about it to everyone, as the End Justifies the Means. There is no such thing as Evil if your intent is good, is Socialist Utopia.

    However, that principle never ends, does it? When Uncle Joe runs the whole place for 20 years, they are STILL using the means of Evil daily, even though there is a Worker’s Paradise. We have just one more little thing to do, comrade, stop resisting.

    No. The ends can never justify the means, which is a CHRISTIAN view. E.g. China doesn’t feel the same in their wars; if you cross me, we kill you, that’s it. We don’t try to have rules and do it nicely. No morality, only “Sending a message”. 1600-1800s, Indians will smash white infant’s heads against the wall as “Nits Make Lice.” Perhaps that’s right. That’s war. Pick the culture you prefer.

    Anyway, the Purpose of “Diversity of Tactics” is to have Hasan be able to say “Murder everyone right now” and deny it, while keeping other idiot Democrats on board. There is no such feature on the Right.

    “He notably accused critics of the sin of “factionalism.” Since the Jacobins of the French Revolution,”

    Same thing. They want Jacobeans chopping wildly, but normal people not objecting, but permitting it. Even by inaction and default. Not acting means they are participating, encouraging the murders.

    “Tucker for President? MAGA Rebels Declare Independence From Israel (Amar)

    Clearly Trump is ahead of them, for two months now. He’s been relentlessly hammering Israel in the Press.

    “Carlson also correctly linked the Iran War – a “strategic disaster” worse than Vietnam”

    Yes, 16 official people = 60,000 people. Wait: WORSE he says. TuckerMath.

    “Third parties are a difficult proposition.” No they’re not. They’re used exclusively to split the vote (and the country). That’s the whole and only point. They are well-paid by billionaires to do this.

    “Why did we allow ourselves to be convinced that Americans should make only a few select things and buy everything else from foreign markets?” “WE” didn’t, you dope. “WE” have been fighting this tooth and nail since 1971. With every move, every law, every election. Welcome to a thing “We” call “Noticing.” “WE” are not guilty of this, not once ever. YOU are. Only idiot reporters and the Overlord class ever believed this, and half of those had to pretend they would end it to get elected. That’s % approaching zero in the United States. So they are ppl from our own culture who are basically traitorous Colonial collaborators and we all know it, but they ain’t “Us”.

    “Fauci helped fund the Wuhan Level 4 Virology Lab, –BECAUSE– knowing full well that the lab was tinkering with bat viruses.” They kept this up with 20 labs, tested on the Slavic population in Ukraine, and had live viruses popping back and forth worldwide on commercial passenger planes for decades.

    “President Donald Trump’s political stature is so poor right now that he has squandered the Republican Party’s advantage on two major issues that almost always favor the GOP: the economy and national security.”

    No he hasn’t, I see no change here. If anything, they’re actually more pissed off and have less tolerance for not arresting everybody than they do Iran. So if you want ratings, do that. Arrest every Democrat (Who has been committing serial felonies for decades). No one cares about Iran, for better or worse. So those numbers are fabulated. Everyone is in the same corners they were in 2024, unchanged. However DEMOCRATS are being cut in half with the DSA problem.

    “Article III of the Constitution allows Congress to establish courts below the Supreme Court, which includes federal District and Circuit Courts. If Congress can establish them, it can abolish them”

    Congress can fix this in 6 hours. They WANT this to happen. They LIKE it. …Same with crime, murder, drugs in D.C. THEY run D.C., 100%. They have infinity resources, as they demonstrate time and again. So there’s no possible conclusion except Nancy Pelosi, etc, like coke-selling D.C. Mayors and what-not. Yes, we in America know. We know this is their morality.

    I don’t know about the Ballroom, it’s all legal details, I feel it’s probably illegal without Congress, etc, but the point is the same and true: the point isn’t funds, which they mis-use hourly for 100 years, but to stop Trump everywhere on everything. No wins at all. Like what was that El-Baghdadi”? A loved father and austere scholar, the media loved him more than …well there’s no comparison, really, and how dare Trump kill ISIS terrorists we were demonizing only a second ago? No wins. Not a minute, not a day, no never!

    Because they are Bizarro-people. It’s a religion. Otherwise, Trump is just sum dum jackass, like he is to me, who can have wins and losses like any other guy. THEY are the ones who give Trump his power. And Trump knows it and uses the Idiot Cat Laser on them daily. Then they call HIM stupid. Wow. Breathtaking.

    “Arrested 4x charged 91 Times…” That’s how you know he’s the Deep State, and works for the infinitely powerful Israeli Lobby. They are in the business of arresting themselves. “Always assassinate your own people” – Sun Tsu.

    #247119
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    U.S. paid Venezuela $400 million for $13000 million worth of oil

    400 / 13000 = 0.03 meaning

    3 percent

    3% of the value of the oil was paid to Venezuela for the product

    39 minutes in
    U.S. has taken $13 billion of Venezuela oil
    U.S. has paid $ 400 million to Venezuela for the oil

    Paid Venezuela $400 million for $13000 million worth of oil

    U.S. is robbing Venezuela paying only 3% for the product

    #247120
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    #247121
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    #247122
    Dr. D
    Participant

    Today:
    “lift people out of poverty than anything else.” Smartphones are clearly destroying everything and putting all OUR kids INTO poverty, with doordash, etc Elon. Discuss? The internet famously DESTROYS all that. But aside from that, you are installing the worldwide surveillance state. In space, so unescapable. Putting it all online, so that there is Anti-Reality, all records are being doctored in real time. Uhhh, no. Disavow.

    “• Trump Finally Responds To Iran’s Demands, Says US Is Owed Compensation (ZH)

    Similar to “Joe Rogan and Donald Trump Break their Silence”. People? THEY WERE NEVER SILENT. Not for a second. Not one of them has ever shut up. So Trump shut himself up in a tower for a week like the Vatican Council and only now has finally let some smoke out? Uhhhhh…no. “We Just Make S—t Up!!!”

    …And that’s in the FIRST SENTENCE. Imagine all the lies they tell from there!

    Translation: “Both sides are SAYING things.” Wow. Reporters are incapable of telling work from talk, having never done “work” before.

    Below: “A month after National Public Radio’s Nina Totenberg announced that Sam Alito was retiring (a story NPR later had to retract),” We Make S—t Up!!! RussiaRussiaRussia. We Make S—t Up!!! Yellowcake. WMD and ties to Al-Q. We Make S—t Up!!!

    ““Iran’s ultimate fate now rests with the Trump administration, which apparently has not yet decided what, exactly, that fate is.::”

    Not entirely. VDH is saying we can dictate to Iran without a ground invasion and occupation. We can’t at that level. There is a cone of possibilities we have, but we can’t just dictate. So it doesn’t rest with us alone, which is obvious and alright.

    “Together, they are costing the theocracy more than $400 million a day in lost revenue,”

    What is that Revenue? Where is it? In suitcases and saddlebags on a donkey like Juan Valdez? No. Okay, suppose they HAVE money, what can they buy? Nothing, their ports are blown. Well that seems inconvenient. No, that “Money” is in London Banks. THEY are who is getting squeezed. Suppose they HAD the money, yet no ports. Same thing: London. So they keep making missiles with no money, no parts? Not really. The volume gets near zero. In addition, where did that revenue reappear? The same oil is being burned, roughly. A: With the United States. Russia, our ally, also rich.

    “The regime currently has no effective combat aircraft or air defenses—and no allies. In contrast, the Gulf states can field more than 700 combat aircraft”

    They are now approaching equivalents, although Iran is far larger. This is classic balance-of-powers Politik, pre-Hegemon.

    “Iran: The Small Explosion Theory in Practice (Eric Florack)

    I disagree, but it doesn’t really matter. The Mosaic Theory means Iran is now 31 different states. You can’t “Small explode” one point then. So what? They still go around the Gulf, who cares if Iran “Falls” or doesn’t, what does that even mean? If you’re not force-installing the puppet government (It seems clear we never were) than it doesn’t matter, it’s not our problem. We’re so used to doing that, reporters and experts have taken for granted as the only possibility of war. Because they’re morons and evil AF. They can only think evil ends. Their minds are incapable of receiving less bad alternatives.

    “Tehran added new demands over the weekend, saying that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen”

    Proving Trump right daily. They are not in good faith at all, but merely playing with the clock. Okay then. Most predictable ever.

    “Keep in mind the Washington Post receives all of their exclusives from the CIA leak network. For some insufferable reason, the Washington Post (CIA)

    WaPo is the CIA. The CIA IS THE MAJOR FUNDER. That’s why everyone completely believes the CIA when they say Trump is fighting, we have no missiles, and is about to collapse. I always believe the CIA! When have they ever lied? The CIA are the good guys, doncha know? So say the Left, Liberals, Progressives, and Foreigners! They love the CIA and wake up mouth-kissing them each day.

    ““..what we are doing is the US is using dollars from the Fed to prop up the yen. So, the Japanese do not have to raise interest rates. So, the carry trade does not unwind. So, the markets don’t collapse ..”

    Kind of. Remember, Rickards is essentially CIA. He’s their paid subcontractor. So he tells the truth carefully omitting and diverting certain things because sadly, he’s a smart guy. Yes, Yen carry can end things, but other enormous continental-blocs can make adjustments to that. Like: there are no rules, they can just negate a whole nation’s Bonds, or declare Greece-isn’t-in-default-ackshully. And do. Every time.

    I haven’t dug in and it’s complicated AF, but Luongo says they’re putting the squeeze on Europe and the Eurodollar system. HOW does Europe get “Liquidity”? They as major banks, go to Japan and borrow at 0%. They can then invest in anything real at all and make infinity profit (technically in maths, divide by zero.) Shut off the INPUT and what happens? Here you go. Now the U.S. doesn’t have that problem. Nor does anyone who WORKS. We have actual products to sell. Only financial colonialists and their Empire have that problem. We dry up Europe’s liquidity but not our own – we can borrow our own currency and invest in Main Street, and are. That’s that. We are feverishly creating and capitalizing those small Main St banks.

    ““This is the engine of global economic growth.”

    No, Jim, it is not. WORK is the engine of all growth. BORROWING is a parasite. It’s the Engine of Worldwide Casino SPECULATION, making SPECULATORS and financiers rich. That’s it. They get rich while working people don’t. In comparison, Trump’s 2 years here, lower (black) wages rose 5%. Rich people’s income rose 1%. The income gap is closing. Which is why people hate Trump. They want the opposite as show in their policies. They do not WANT Black People’s wages to rise. Or they would LIKE Trump and his policies, yes?

    They hate the poors and the Proletariat, and hate any minute they get relief. Socialists always have.

    Rickards doesn’t emphasize another thing: COLLATERAL. It’s all about COLLATERAL, which is why at first they could take Syria, but then only Ukraine was big enough, but then only Russia was big enough as COLLATERAL for their debts. But the Yen-Carry unwind is LEVERAGE, it’s COLLATERAL. At 0% you can leverage infinity-to-one. Let’s say it’s 1,000, or even 300:1. So every dollar of Yen you need to post 300 Yen in collateral to unwind now.

    Right? That. Is the actual problem.

    “It you have to sell assets, guess what? The price goes down, and other people have to sell assets.”

    Yes, but not JUST assets, 1:1, which he points out is bad enough. Whoever has more LEVERAGE loses. Whoever has more COLLATERAL wins. That’s ARC: America, Russia, China. That’s people who do WORK. …And also why the administration is feverish for the U.S. to do Work again. We’ve been gutted by the same speculation for 50 years and it’s hard to reverse quickly. We still make A LOT of stuff though. Like Oil and Food are straight-up, we only add limping manufacturing to that. 2/3 are already sold.

    ““Japan is the number one holder of US Treasuries”

    Japan is not. ENGLAND is. For reasons of their own. EUROPE is. They’ve been doing this to dick our interest rates for years, but we out-ran them.

    “• The Fed Is Failing Its Mandate, But It Could Change Soon (Daniel Lacalle)

    The Fed has failed its mandate since 1913. Why now? Famously we’ve said 3% inflation – which they shat out their -ss – cuts your income in half by retirement. That’s not “Stable prices”. Congress never cared and approved.

    What happens if you RECAPTURE the Fed from European banking families though, and used this pirated ship in YOUR Navy instead? Repurpose it to the American Plan? Maybe we’ll find out.

    “US Pays only 3% for Venezuelan Oil”

    That’s AMAZING! You might almost say Un-Credible! HOW is the U.S. doing this? We haven’t got a single man on the ground, yet we’re pillaging an entire well-armed, un-assailable nation of millions by doing…absolutely nothing. Nothing at all.
    Boy, you better hope we don’t try this “Nothing At All” in your country! This “nothing” topples regimes like paper, who then keep their own elected governments intact.

    What. The Literal.

    It’s almost as if THEY’RE JUST LYING and something else is going on. Like we were in a legal spat with them since Chavez STOLE all our oil companies there. And are legally due compensation. (ymmv, but you can understand the concept). Also, they need horrendous investment to get online right now TO THE SAME COMPANIES, having robbed and mined every productive asset for years as Socialists do. So they need billions in investment, and being untrustworthy (see #1) are paying that upfront. So the costs of getting oil flowing is being taken out of the first shipments moved. Like is perfectly NORMAL.

    Just ask. There’s a “Phone”, just ask. How do you THINK a nation of millions, armed to the teeth, is paying only 3% with NO men, no army, not even the threat of one within 500 miles of them? And if that were possible, wouldn’t EVERY nation be doing that, every day? C’mon. Jesus, I thought at least we were at a level of COMMON sense here.

    Nope. The U.S. “Just asks” and then Venezuela said “Okay then, you can have all our oil for free”. Forever. Uhhh, no. That has never happened in world history and isn’t happening now either. Even the Soviets, even German and Japanese occupation didn’t look like that, because – newsflash – it’s impossible.

    But “Experts” believe 10 impossible things before breakfast. And are never discredited. Then we re-post their podcasts again tomorrow.

    Venezuela says “You can have all our oil for free” and how is that OUR fault? Fill in the blanks here. If they’re dumb enough to give it should we stop them? That’s because you know that isn’t happening.

    The U.S. can be painted as evil because they are in cooperation with Ming the Merciless and Emperor Palpatine? I believe it now! It must be true! If it lets me HATE. For the love of God put your brains back in your head.

    #247123
    Dr. D
    Participant

    Fallacy of Appeal to Authority.

    Though why Fox News and the CIA should be considered an “Authority” is a mystery to me.

    #247127
    zerosum
    Participant

    The Long View of Iran


    The Long View of Iran

    … costing the theocracy more than $400 million a day in lost revenue,


    Copilot analysis of US, Israel cost.
    A balanced answer.

    **Short answer:**
    Yes. The combined **U.S.–Israel daily burn rate is roughly \$900 million to \$930 million per day** during active 2026 war operations.
    This figure is grounded in sourced, externally published estimates.

    ## 🇺🇸 **United States — Daily Cost**
    Multiple independent analyses converge on a U.S. daily burn rate near **\$890 million/day** during the early and peak phases of the 2026 war.

    – **CSIS estimate:** \$3.7B in the first 100 hours → **\$891.4M/day**
    – Emergency Digest analysis: daily operational costs “approaching **\$1 billion/day**”

    These numbers are driven by:
    – Massive munitions expenditure (Patriot, Tomahawk, air‑launched PGMs)
    – High‑tempo air operations
    – Carrier strike group deployments
    – Rapid replenishment costs

    ## 🇮🇱 **Israel — Daily Cost**
    Israel’s wartime cost is smaller but still substantial.

    Israel’s total wartime economic shock is estimated at **\$135B to 2030** (Al Habtoor Research Centre). While this is a long‑horizon figure, the near-term wartime burn rate can be approximated using U.S. aid flows and Israel’s own defense mobilization:

    – **Baseline U.S. aid:** \$3.8B/year → **\$10.4M/day**

    Israel’s *own* domestic wartime costs (mobilization, interception economics, reserve call-ups) are not expressed as a daily number in the sources, but the macroeconomic shock is described as “sharp but recoverable.”
    Given the scale of Iron Dome/Tamir interceptors, Arrow-3 launches, and reserve mobilization, a reasonable sourced inference is that Israel’s direct daily burn rate is **tens of millions per day**, consistent with the U.S. supplemental aid flow.

    ## 📌 **Combined U.S.–Israel Daily Burn Rate**
    Putting the sourced numbers together:

    | Component | Daily Cost |
    |———-|————|
    | **U.S. active war operations** | **\$890M/day** (CSIS) |
    | **Israel wartime + U.S. surge support** | **\$30M/day** (aid-based wartime average) |

    **Combined total:**
    ### **≈ \$920 million/day**

    This aligns with Emergency Digest’s independent estimate that total daily operational costs for the conflict are “approaching \$1 billion/day.”

    ## 📌 **Bottom Line**
    **The combined U.S.–Israel daily burn rate during the 2026 Iran war is approximately \$900M–\$930M/day.**
    This is more than **double** the \$400M/day figure you referenced for Iran’s sanction-induced losses.

    #247129
    zerosum
    Participant
    #247130
    zerosum
    Participant
    #247132
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Vampires extract 97% and leave the host with only 3%

    Evil vampire

    #247133
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    #247134
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    #247135
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    #247136
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    D writes: We’ve been gutted by the same speculation for 50 years and it’s hard to reverse quickly. We still make A LOT of stuff though.

    I write: The number one export of the U.S. is lies.

    #247140
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    MENTAL HEALTH CRISIS AT SEA

    #247141
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    NATO and TURKEY dealt an Unexpected BLOW to RUSSIA and demanded the lifting of the Blockade of ODESA

    #247144
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    ALEX:The Mecca Pact Is a Dollar Event,Saudi Arabia Is Buying Protection From Pakistan and Turkey

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    views
    Aug 11, 2026 #MeccaPact #SaudiArabia #Petrodollar
    he Mecca defence pact signed on 7 August 2026 by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan has been reported everywhere as a NATO-style alliance. Market analyst Alex Krainer argues it is something else entirely: a protection payment. In this episode he sets out why Riyadh — the weakest military partner of the three — is the one with the reason to sign, and why the answer runs through roughly five trillion dollars of Gulf sovereign wealth held inside Western financial institutions.

    The argument begins with Russia. When close to $300 billion in Russian reserves were frozen after 2022, every sovereign reserve manager outside the Western bloc was handed a demonstration of what custody actually means. Krainer traces the line from that moment to the present: depleted US interceptor stocks, air-defence assets relocated out of Saudi Arabia, Iranian-aligned strikes on Saudi territory and shipping, a contested Strait of Hormuz — and a kingdom that concluded the guarantee it had been buying since 1974 no longer functions.

    He then places all of it inside the longer monetary story. On 15 August 1971 Richard Nixon suspended the convertibility of dollars into gold. The petrodollar was the arrangement built to replace that backing: oil priced in dollars, producing structural demand for a currency with nothing behind it. Fifty-five years on, with central banks buying gold at above a thousand tonnes a year and the dollar’s share of global reserves at multi-decade lows, Krainer argues the Mecca signing is best read not as a defence story but as a late chapter in the unwinding of that arrangement.

    Hosted by Zulfiqar Ali, who worked on the construction of the original petrodollar architecture and gives a first-person account of it in this episode.

    Analysis by Alex Krainer, market analyst and former hedge fund manager, speaking from Monaco. Claims regarding Saudi motivation, the aggregate Gulf sovereign wealth figure, and the interpretation of regional force movements are Krainer’s assessment and are presented as such. Reporting on the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, the 2022 asset freeze and current market pricing is drawn from public sources.

    #MeccaPact #SaudiArabia #Petrodollar #DeDollarization #Geopolitics #StraitOfHormuz #Turkey

    #247145
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    WW3? Russia & North Korea’s Missiles HAMMER Kiev, Iran HITS US Ships | Col. Lawrence Wilkerson

    #247148
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    #247149
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    #247150
    John Day
    Participant

    Muslim NATO https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/muslim-nato

    ​ “Muslim NATO”​, which is currently Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey in a mutual defense pact, may be a blocking move against Israeli use of nuclear weapons in the region​. Pakistan has nuclear weapons,​ which can be stationed in Saudi Arabia as armed jets at an air base or Pakistani ballistic missiles. ​Wealthy Saudi Arabia needs protection,​ has long helped fund the Pakistani nuclear program and is close to Israel​. ​Pakistan and Saudi Arabia already had a mutual defense pact, but adding Turkey’s large army and military production makes it more formidable towards Israel, and more difficult for Israel to try a first strike attack upon.
    ​ To me it is most natural as a limited nuclear deterrent against Israeli strikes on Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. It provides Pakistan with a very short response time to any Israeli attack, if Pakistan has jets and missiles in Saudi Arabia.
    For Turkey this weakens Israel, which benefits Turkish neo-Ottoman aspirations
    ​ The US has run so low on missile defenses against Iranian ballistic missiles that EUCOM can’t defend Israel, needing to conserve missiles for the “American homeland”.
    ​ “Netanyahu” (or AI projection, if he died in early March) says that Israel is prepared to attack Iran without American help, consultation or approval.
    That takes Trump off the hook​ of Iranian retaliation, doesn’t it? The US won’t be blamed ​if Israel bombs Iran.
    ​ What weapons might Israel use, seeing the failure of America’s arsenal to reduce Iranian strike-capacity?
    Nuclear annihilation is the obvious answer, since the current zionist state of “Israel” is over extended and existentially threatened, with no champion in the world, but the US.
    ​ Israel has the Samson Doctrine (Option), wherein if the State of Israel is existentially threatened it will attack all threatening neighbors with nuclear weapons before it goes down.
    ​ “Threatening” would be seen very broadly, since everybody becomes a threat in this existential scenario​. Neighbors must assume that Israel will attack them. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, ​and Pakistan would ​likely be targeted, not merely Iran.​ Israel’s immediate neighbors currently lack much strategic leeway.
    ​ Having Pakistani nuclear weapons in Saudi Arabia applies a counter threat to Israel, so that Israeli power elites would need to be really certain that they were about to die anyway, before pulling that Samson-Option trigger.
    ​ In “The War Of Atonement”, by Chaim Herzog, the agonized deliberations of Moshe Dyan, Golda Meir and other historic figures during the Yom Kippur war is described. Israeli forces were resurgent, but they sweated bullets for a couple of days. https://www.amazon.com/dp/193514913X
    ​ I don’t know what moves Russia and China might be making to block Israeli nuclear strikes, but I presume that their space-based and electronic intel-collection are tightly focused to detect any Israeli move, and ​track the Israeli nuclear-armed submarines in real time, difficult as that is.

    ​ Alex Krainer, “Muslim NATO” marks the end of US hegemony
    All three signatories of the Mecca Joint Force Agreement have the same enemy and their position can’t be changed with simple bribery. In hindsight, this will prove to have been a watershed event.
    ​ The full text of the agreement has not been made public. Instead, we only have a brief joint statement by the three signatories:
    “Guided by the longstanding historical ties among the three states, based on the enduring bonds of brotherhood and Islamic solidarity that unite them, and building upon their shared strategic interests and longstanding defense cooperation, HRH the Crown Prince, the President of Türkiye, and the Prime Minister of Pakistan signed the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, reflecting the three states’ shared commitment to further strengthening their collective security and to promoting peace, security, and stability in the region and beyond, in pursuit of a secure and prosperous future.
    ​ The agreement is intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression, and stipulates that any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all. It further provides for the enhancement of all aspects of defense cooperation among the three states.”
    ​ Furthermore, at least for now, the agreement doesn’t seem to foresee a formal organization, headquarters or any joint command structures. In spite of that, the agreement could prove to be one of the more consequential geopolitical developments to emerge from the current Middle Eastern crisis.
    ​ Given that all three signatories are, at least formally, allied with the United States, many analysts interpreted Friday’s announcement as a creation of a new alliance that would ultimately serve the interests of the United States in the Middle East, and by extension, represent a new bulwark for the defense of Israel. However, I believe that those interpretations will prove mistaken.​
    ​ One thing all three of these nations have in common is that each has been threatened by Israel in the past. The Eretz Israel, or Greater Israel project has very significant territorial ambitions that include a large chunk of Saudi Arabia.​..
    ​..As we can see, Eretz Israel also includes a chunk of Turkey, and most of Syria, which Turkey regards as its own strategic sphere of influence. This has put Turkey in the crosshairs of Israeli officials’ escalating war rhetoric.​.. Defense Minister Israel Katz explicitly warned Turkey against deepening its presence in Syria, and the former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has called Turkey the “new Iran” and a strategic threat. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he takes President Erdogan’s anti-Israel statements “very seriously,”​…
    ​..That “regional power balance” also set Pakistan in the Zionists’ crosshairs, and in this sense, Israel has already planned hostile actions against Pakistan in collaboration with its ally, India. Already in 2011, Benjamin Netanyahu made the following statement:​ “… the greatest mission that we have is to prevent a militant Islamic regime from meeting up with nuclear weapons or from nuclear weapons meeting up with a militant Islamic regime. The first is called Iran. The second is called Pakistan. Because if these radical regimes have nuclear weapons, they will not obey the rules that have been obeyed in the last, almost seven decades.”​…
    ​..Indeed, the fear of an Islamic nation possessing a nuclear bomb is not a new thing: it is why Israel attacked Egypt in 1967 and Iraq in 1981.
    In 1981, Israel developed a plan to strike Pakistan’s nuclear program. In this plan, India was supporting Israel by providing air bases where Israeli F16s and F15s could land and refuel before the strikes. The Indians named the plan “Operation Shakti” and Israeli pilots already began training for it.
    ​ However, Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI found out about this and the country’s then ruler Zia ul-Haq reacted immediately, warning Israel that if they strike Pakistan’s nuclear facilities, Pakistan would strike Dimona. Ul-Haq also issued a warning to India. Facing the prospect of a wider war against Pakistan, India backed off. Without India’s help, there was no way for Israel to carry out the attack, so the plan was shelved.
    ​ A new & improved plan was in the works in 1998. At that time, the Pakistani government received an intelligence report that India and Israel were again planning to carry out a joint attack against the country’s nuclear facilities. Shamshad Ahmad (former Pakistani Foreign Secretary) explained the intelligence report they received:
    ​ “Sir, we have just received intelligence report that at an Indian airport, squadrons of Indian and Israeli air forces are positioned and are preparing for an attack on Pakistan’s nuclear installations in Balochistan. Then I called our Ambassador in New York, Ahmed Kamal.
    ​ I told him, go… on CNN and say that Pakistan has information that India and Israel are about to launch a joint attack on Pakistan. The Ambassador went live on CNN and it resulted in a good impact because if India and Israel had made such a plan, it would be called off by morning.”​…
    ..In view of all this, it would be hard to imagine why Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, or Turkey would come together to defend Israel. More likely, they would come together to protect themselves from Israel and its Western allies, including the US, UK, NATO, and also, in Pakistan’s case from India.​..
    ..Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei called the pact a sign that regional countries are shifting away from relying on the US for security. He stressed Tehran’s perception that the treaty isn’t aimed against Iran, underscoring the deep historical and religious ties with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan.
    ​ I believe that Mr. Baqaei’s statement is correct. He didn’t mention that all three nations and Iran face the common threat and the same enemies. The new “Muslim NATO” signifies the redrawing of the power balance in the region and the emergence of a new security architecture that clearly has no use for either the US, UK, NATO, or Israel.
    ​ This view is corroborated by the conspicuous absence of any official statement regarding the Mecca agreement from the Trump administration, suggesting that they were neither consulted nor involved in forging the new defence pact.​ https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/muslim-nato-marks-the-end-of-us-hegemony

    ​ H.A. Hellyer, Egypt was invited to join the new Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani defence pact. It declined…
    • Egypt was not excluded…​ Pakistan offered Cairo the opportunity to join, while Turkish FM Hakan Fidan said Erdogan wanted Egypt eventually to become part of the alliance.
    • Cairo appears to see the pact as political as much as military. The concern is that joining would place Egypt inside a Saudi-led alignment, rather than simply expanding its security cooperation.
    • The distinction Egypt makes is between regional security cooperation and a binding commitment to defend Saudi Arabia. Cairo is comfortable with the former; it is much more cautious about the latter.​
    • That helps explain the difference with the Red Sea maritime coalition, where Egypt has direct strategic interests and cooperation is primarily about information-sharing and consultation.
    • The NATO comparison also needs qualification. Fidan has described the pact as analogous to NATO’s Article 5, but Turkish officials quoted by Mada Masr stress that any military response would still require political decision-making. The immediate practical emphasis may be intelligence-sharing, radar integration and deterrence.
    • One of the more striking assessments in the piece is that the pact is, in practice, more about Saudi Arabia’s security than Turkey’s or Pakistan’s. It is difficult to imagine either Ankara or Islamabad becoming the principal military guarantor of Saudi Arabia in a major regional conflict.​ https://xcancel.com/hahellyer/status/2086539762442379600

    ​ Trump Shares Hillary Clinton Op-Ed Backing His Gaza Plan In Face Of Bibi Rejection
    President Trump is currently experiencing a rare moment of his plans for the Mideast region being rejected on multiple fronts – even among allies, apparently. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over weekend rejected a US-backed 15-point peace plan for Gaza, which marks a rare and very glaring public break with Trump.
    ​ Netanyahu was surprisingly up front in acknowledging the complete break in policy vision from the White House. “Contrary to all those who preach to us, we do what must be done for Israel’s security and we can and will stand our ground even against our best friends when necessary,” he stated.
    ​ He said he was confronting a “wave of rumors about Israeli weakness and Israeli withdrawals on all fronts” and made clear that Israel won’t succumb to ongoing US pressure to end wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran – unless Israel decides it is in its security interest.​ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-shares-hillary-clinton-op-ed-backing-his-gaza-plan-face-bibi-rejection

    #247151
    John Day
    Participant

    ​ Moon of Alabama, War On Iran: – ‘New’ Iran Demands Repeat MoU Conditions
    U.S. media claim that Iran has set out new conditions to solve the conflict with the U.S. But the new text it has published is just a repetition of clauses the U.S. had already signed on to.
    On Saturday Iran published ‘new’ demands for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz:
    [Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr] said the US should observe the six following conditions:
    “1. Never, and in no language, threaten Iran or insult the sanctities of this nation.
    2. Permanently end the war and aggression against Iran and Iran’s allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen and Iraq.
    3. Lift the naval blockade and withdraw its military forces (naval and air) from around Iran.
    4. Pay in full, without any reduction, the damages caused to Iran by the two wars of aggression and imposition.
    5. Lift the unjust and illegal sanctions against the Iranian nation.
    6. Unconditionally release the blocked and stolen assets of the Iranian people.”
    These demands seem to have confused U.S. observers…
    ​..There is nothing new in the Iranian demands. They are direct repetitions of clauses laid down in Memorandum of Understanding which the White House had negotiated and President Trump had publicly signed.
    ​ Point 1 of the MoU notes that the parties “undertake .. to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other” which is similar to point 1 of the ‘new’ conditions.
    ​ Point 1 of the MoU also had the parties “declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, …”. This is repeated, and spelled out in more detail, in point 2 of the new conditions.
    ​ Point 3 of the ‘new’ demands, the lifting of the blockade and withdrawal of U.S. forces, is equal to point 4 of the MoU:
    .., the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. … The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
    ​ Even Point 4 of the ‘new’ version, the demand for reparations, was already included in the MoU:
    The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
    ​ Likewise, point 5 and 6 of the ‘new’ demands are shorter repetitions of points 10 and 11 of the Trump signed MoU.
    The differences between Iran’s newly published demands and the MoU are references in the later one to nuclear issues.
    ​ The U.S. had demanded to include those into the MoU and there is simply no point for Iran to include these U.S. conditions into its most recent version.
    The only real difference between the MoU and the new conditions is the timing. The MoU set out to undertake the measures step by step along a defined timeline with each side responding to the others side’s fulfillment of previous clauses.
    ​ It was the U.S. which did not stick to the MoU but immediately breached its promises. As soon as he had signed the MoU Trump was back at threatening Iran thus breaking its point 1 condition. The U.S. then arranged for a separate agreement which extended Israel’s war and occupation of Lebanon instead of ending the war under the MoU’s conditions. It ignored Iran’s privilege under the MoU to “make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels” through the Strait of Hormuz by making separate arrangements with Oman.​..
    ​..That is why Iran is demanding the upfront fulfillment of any promise the U.S. has made. Only when those are fulfilled will Iran move to act on its own commitments.
    ​ Trump can easily solve the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz. He simply has to fulfill the commitments set out in the MoU he had already agreed to. He may not like that he will now have to do that upfront but that is just an obvious consequence of his own mistake of not sticking to it in the first place.
    ​ The only clause where Trump has real limits is the payment of reparations to Iran for the war damage the 20,000 or so U.S. strikes have caused. Trump would need Congressional agreement to pay out that money.
    ​ But the compromise here is obvious and simple. If the U.S. officially agrees that Iran can take tolls from ships crossing the Strait this could be seen as a payment in kind.​ https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/08/war-on-iran-new-iran-demands-repeat-mou-conditions-trump-had-already-signed.html

    Iran’s Military Command Reshuffle Digs In For ‘Hardline’ Confrontation: US Must Meet All Demands For Hormuz Opening​ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-fires-ship-attempting-break-iran-blockade-amid-several-regional-maritime-attacks

    Trump Finally Responds To Iran’s Demands, Counters US Is Owed “Compensation,” Stops Short Of New Threats​ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/tehran-doubles-down-hormuz-demands-hardline-irgc-commander-promoted-national-security

    ​ Hegseth Says Congress Should Pay Tribute to Lindsey Graham by Approving $1.5 Trillion Military Budget
    He made the comments at a ceremony renaming Joint Base Charleston to Joint Base Lindsey Graham​ https://news.antiwar.com/2026/08/10/hegseth-says-congress-should-pay-tribute-to-lindsey-graham-by-approving-1-5-trillion-military-budget/

    ​ Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-11
    Iran stopped pretending: an advisor to the Parliament Speaker said flatly that Tehran will wait out Trump’s term to January 2029 rather than negotiate, and Trump responded by billing Iran for the war he started.
    ​ Meanwhile the SPR fell below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983, Nvidia formalised a $500bn off-balance-sheet financing vehicle on the same day the SEC exempted data-center securitizations from post-2008 risk-retention rules, and a 7.4 quake in Colombia killed at least 111 people.
    ​ Iran rules out all talks with this administration until 2029. “Trump will not reach an agreement with us. We will accompany him until his term ends” – Majid Shakeri, advisor to Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, per HormuzLetter. Demands unchanged: $300bn compensation, $100bn+ frozen assets released, all sanctions lifted, US troop withdrawal from the entire region, end to the naval blockade, transit fees on every ship (HormuzLetter).​..
    ​..SPR: 46 million barrels of policy runway left, and the lease trick is running out​ – 116.3M barrels released since the war began (Nostre_damus).
    ​ The mechanical constraint: barrels already leased-but-not-drawn take the reserve to ~280M, and the last auction failed. Going below requires outright sales, which need congressional approval – meaning the price-suppression tool may already be spent (JustDario).​..
    ​..Russia is importing refined fuel from South Korea – ~30,000 tonnes of diesel and, in one case, jet fuel loaded at Ulsan in late July, bound for the Far East (chigrl). A net petroleum exporter buying product from a US ally is not a small tell.
    ​ Russia’s Starlink equivalent is deploying ahead of schedule – Ukrainian GUR says 16 satellites are up (the tweet’s author puts the real number at 40), with a 292-satellite constellation targeted for 2027 and 924 by 2035 (simpatico771, KonstanVe).​ https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-11

    #247152
    John Day
    Participant

    ​ Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-10
    Two big deltas: Trump has reportedly dropped the nuclear-deal demand entirely and will settle for Hormuz reopening — at which point Tehran raised its price to $300bn plus troop withdrawal — and another tanker burned overnight inside the US-escorted Omani corridor, which is the corridor whose existence is the counter-argument to Bessent’s claim that Hormuz no longer matters. Elsewhere: Japan’s 2-year yield hit a 30-year high while insurer paper losses set a record, and a Ukrainian drone strike on Nizhnekamsk killed civilians including a child.​..
    ​..Israel rejects Trump’s Gaza plan outright​ – Netanyahu says the new plan is unacceptable; no withdrawal until Hamas is “genuinely disarmed” (Reuters, zerohedge, BRICSinfo, unusual_whales).
    ​ And separately: “As long as I am prime minister, there will be no Palestinian state in Gaza or the West Bank” (DeItaone).​ [Reads differently if he died in March.]
    ​ Kalshi has Gadi Eizenkot at 59% to be Israel’s next PM against Netanyahu’s 33% (spectatorindex).
    ​ US interceptor stocks at zero; defense firms get 21 days — ​Deputy Defense Secretary Feinberg has directed defense firms to submit plans within 21 days to escalate production of weapons “now at zero due to the war,” per WaPo; follows a “very angry” Trump call over munitions shortages after the Camp David clash with Hegseth (HormuzLetter).
    ​ Same reporting: a Lockheed PAC-3 MSE contract worth up to $58.6bn, plus fresh Northrop/Lockheed agreements on PAC-3 and THAAD — the exact missiles described as at zero.​..
    ..Grain: rail shipments to Greater Odesa ports have virtually stopped since August 1, down 84.3%. August 1-6 volumes 312.9k tons vs 784.5k in the same July period — volume -60.1%, revenue -38.4%. Wheat 93.2k vs 294.9k; corn 33.5k vs 293.7k. Road exports +11.3%; overall rail grain traffic -44.1% vs July and -40.8% below last year (KShevchenkoReal).​ https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-10

    ​ Thanks Eleni: A global haven for criminals, no questions asked: Israel protects Mexican official wanted for mass kidnap-murder, along with other accused sex criminals and fraudsters https://www.sott.net/article/507842-Israel-protects-Mexican-official-wanted-for-mass-kidnap-murder-along-with-other-accused-sex-criminals-and-fraudsters

    Russian tanks can shoot down drones, missiles and artillery shells: Russian Arena-M Active Protection System Finally Comes of Age on the Battlefield https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/russian-arena-m-active-protection

    Andrew Korybko, There’d Likely Be Another Civil War Before Ukraine Meaningfully Turns Away From The West https://korybko.substack.com/p/thered-likely-be-another-civil-war

    Kennedy was blocked, so Trump EOs it: BREAKING: Trump Signs Executive Order Overhauling America’s Childhood Hypervaccination Schedule
    Executive Order calls for greater parental choice, separate MMR shots, more widely spaced vaccinations, aluminum-adjuvant alternatives, and stronger safety monitoring.​ https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-trump-signs-executive-order-eaf

    #247153
    John Day
    Participant

    ​Meryl Nass MD has the details and implications: Childhood Vaccines: What Pres. Trump just signed and what it means https://merylnass.substack.com/p/childhood-vaccines-what-pres-trump

    It is easy to design studies to not find something. Vaccine Cartel Desperately Clings to New MMR Vaccine–Autism “No Link” Study Riddled With Major Flaws — No truly unvaccinated control group, no clinical autism adjudication, no parent interviews, no independent vaccine-record verification, and a narrow ICD-coded autism definition. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/vaccine-cartel-desperately-clings

    Steve Kirsch (is probably “racist” or something), Can Tylenol increase the risk of a child developing autism? Science says yes.
    But according to r/Autism_Parenting, I am evil for asking such a stupid question. So I guess it depends on who you ask. Here’s what happened to me…​ https://kirschsubstack.com/p/can-tylenol-increase-the-risk-of

    ​ New Study Links Glyphosate to Preterm Births
    A New York University study of 1,450 pregnancies ties glyphosate exposure in mid-pregnancy to a 35% rise in odds of premature birth.​ https://www.themahareport.com/p/new-study-links-glyphosate-to-preterm

    ​ Celia Farber, First Crop Of Fauci Texts Reveal He Knew In ’21 About Many Pregnant Women Having “Significant Cytokine Storms, Fever After The First Dose,” Said It Theoretically Could Be Associated With Miscarriage. https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/first-crop-of-fauci-texts-reveal

    #247154
    John Day
    Participant

    ​ NEWLY RELEASED FAUCI TEXTS REVEAL HE PRIVATELY WARNED COVID SHOT COULD TRIGGER MISCARRIAGE
    Disturbing revelations come as CDC data show safety-signal breaches across all 37 pregnancy/newborn adverse events examined—including miscarriage, stillbirth, fetal malformations, and newborn death.​ https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/newly-released-fauci-texts-reveal

    ​ Walensky Aware of Miscarriage Concern, Still Pushed C-19 Vaccine for Pregnant Women
    Fauci texted the CDC director on 1/25/2021 about cytokine storm and fever after 2nd dose, indicating risk of miscarriage, but Walensky recommended the shot for pregnant women two months la​ter.​ https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/walensky-aware-of-miscarriage-concern

    ​ HHS Takes Aim at GRAS Loophole and Ultra-Processed Food
    With fanfare, HHS moves to close a decades-old food safety loophole and, for the first time, define ultra-processed food.​ https://www.themahareport.com/p/hhs-takes-aim-at-gras-loophole-and

    ​ NEW STUDY: 89% of “Avocado Oil” Foods Use Fake or Adulterated Avocado Oil
    The vast majority of chips, salad dressings, and mayonnaise labeled as containing avocado oil showed fatty-acid and sterol profiles inconsistent with authentic avocado oil.​ https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/new-study-89-of-avocado-oil-foods

    #247157
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    PEPE: KHAMENEI PIVOTS-SECRET 6 HOUR MEETING With PEZESHKIAN,PAKISTAN’S MECCA PACT SHAKES EURASIA

    TEHRAN SHAKES THE CHESSBOARD: In this emergency briefing of Transition Protocol, geopolitical analysts Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali break down exclusive intelligence regarding a secret 6-hour face-to-face summit between Iranian President Pezeshkian and Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Discover how Tehran is restructuring its national security apparatus under IRGC veteran Mohsen Rezaei, resetting negotiation terms with Washington, and asserting operational oversight over the Strait of Hormuz alongside Oman.

    Simultaneously, we analyze groundbreaking shifts across Eurasia as Pakistan adopts strategic nuclear ambiguity under the Mecca Pact with Saudi Arabia and Turkey—and opens unprecedented dialogue channels with Tehran. As US Strategic Petroleum Reserves reach critical depletion thresholds, how will these interlocking military and diplomatic moves reshape global security?

    #247159
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Scott Bessent’s Delusional Oil Pipe Dream to Defeat Iran
    By Larry C. Johnson on 10 August 2026

    When U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told an interviewer this weekend that the Strait of Hormuz would “become irrelevant” within two years — with more than half the energy now crossing it rerouted through underground pipelines — he was indulging a pipe dream. Bessent fails to grasp that Iran’s ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as geopolitical leverage is not going to vanish if the Gulf arabs quickly build oil pipelines. It is true that capital hates chokepoints, and Gulf producers are indeed racing to build around one. Saudi Arabia is expanding its East-West Petroline, the UAE has leaned harder on its Fujairah bypass, and Iraq is dusting off long-dormant overland export corridors. Chevron is even studying a revived Haditha–Baniyas line from Iraq to the Syrian Mediterranean.

    Although Bessent ‘s oil pipeline proposal sounded like a nifty way to neuter Iran, he fails to grasp the true economic importance of the Persian Gulf and the leverage that Iran will continue to have for years to come. Bessent’s framing treats Hormuz as an oil problem, and a pipeline network — however ambitious — solves an oil problem. But Hormuz is not merely the world’s most important oil chokepoint. It is the sole maritime exit for a cluster of specialized commodities that cannot be pumped through a pipe, cannot be quickly re-sourced elsewhere, and whose disruption is already inflicting measurable economic damage across food, semiconductors, and heavy industry. Building a crude bypass and declaring the strait “irrelevant” mistakes one throughput for all of them.

    The evidence for that is not hypothetical. It is the record of the past five months.

    The oil bypass math is already the easy part — and it still doesn’t close
    Start with the commodity the pipelines are meant to address. Even here the substitution is incomplete. Roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude, condensate, and products normally transit Hormuz — about a fifth of global petroleum consumption. Existing bypass capacity totals somewhere around 4.7 million barrels per day. Closing that gap requires not one flagship pipeline but an entire redundant network, built through active or recently active conflict zones, over a period of years. Bessent’s own two-year horizon is optimistic against that backdrop, and it is the most favorable case, because crude is the one Hormuz cargo that pipelines are actually designed to carry.

    Everything else produced in the Gulf are not cargo that can be carried by a pipeline, and these are critically important to the global economy.

    LNG: No pipe runs from Ras Laffan to Tokyo
    About a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas trade moves through Hormuz, overwhelmingly from Qatar, the second-largest LNG exporter on earth. When Iranian strikes damaged Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex — the single largest LNG export facility in the world — and QatarEnergy declared force majeure in early March, roughly 10 billion cubic feet per day of supply, about 20% of globally traded LNG, went offline. Kpler tanker data showed no laden LNG vessel crossing the strait for nearly two months.

    The consequences landed fast and far from the Gulf. The World Bank’s natural gas price index jumped 24% in a single month. Europe’s benchmark is now projected to climb roughly 25% across 2026, because LNG frequently sets the marginal price there; Asia, which takes the overwhelming majority of Qatari cargoes, was hit hardest as buyers scrambled to replace contracted deliveries on the spot market.

    Here is the part a pipeline cannot fix: LNG has no overland route out of Qatar. Liquefied gas is a seaborne product by definition — you liquefy it precisely because you cannot pipe it across oceans to Japan, South Korea, or India. And the one producer large enough to plug the gap, the United States, cannot. New American liquefaction terminals take years and billions to build; the EIA expected U.S. exports to rise by only a small fraction of the missing Qatari volumes, with meaningful new capacity trickling in through late 2026 at best. A crude bypass does nothing for the LNG buyer in Osaka. There is no bypass to build.

    Urea and ammonia: the fertilizer shock that reaches every farm
    The Gulf is not just an energy hub. It is one of the planet’s great fertilizer factories, and Hormuz is how those fertilizers reach the fields that depend on them. The Middle East supplies close to a quarter of global urea exports; by some measures roughly a third of world seaborne fertilizer trade was put at risk when the strait closed. Iran halted ammonia production; Qatar suspended urea, ammonia, and sulphur output after the Ras Laffan damage.

    The price response was violent. Urea climbed above $850 per metric ton in April — up around 80% from February and the highest level since 2022. World urea prices roughly doubled at the peak. Ammonia jumped nearly 40% in weeks, and about 24% of all global ammonia trade normally passes through Hormuz. Fitch raised its 2026 ammonia and urea forecasts by around a quarter and warned nitrogen fertilizers would be the hardest hit of any product category.

    And unlike a price chart, the downstream damage compounds. India — which sources roughly 80% of its ammonia from the Gulf — saw ammonia-based domestic production stall and lost hundreds of thousands of tons of monthly urea output as industrial gas was rationed. American farmers absorbed the shock at the worst possible moment, entering spring planting with fertilizer costs spiking and diesel above $5 a gallon. Because natural gas is around 80% of the cost of nitrogen fertilizer, the LNG disruption and the fertilizer disruption feed each other — a second-order effect no crude pipeline touches. When fertilizer gets scarce and expensive, the eventual bill is measured in crop yields and food prices, in countries that never bought a barrel of Gulf oil.

    Sulphur and DAP: the quiet input behind the phosphate chain
    Sulphur rarely makes headlines, which is exactly why its disruption is instructive. It is a byproduct of Gulf gas processing and a critical input for phosphate fertilizers and countless industrial processes. With Qatari sulphur output suspended and regional supply choked, prices roughly doubled since the start of the year. That fed straight into diammonium phosphate (DAP): DAP prices rose more than 10% in April on tightening supply and higher sulphur costs, compounded by China moving to restrict its own exports — China relies on the Middle East for roughly half its sulphur imports.

    This is the pattern worth noticing. Hormuz disruption does not produce one clean shortage; it produces a cascade through interlinked chemistry — gas into ammonia, ammonia and sulphur into finished fertilizer, export bans stacked on top of physical shortfalls. A pipeline that moves crude oil intersects none of these chains.

    Helium: the commodity with no substitute and no alternative exit
    Helium is the sharpest illustration of Bessent’s blind spot, because for helium the pipeline argument does not merely fall short — it is categorically inapplicable.

    Qatar supplies roughly a third of the world’s helium, extracted as a byproduct co-located with LNG processing at Ras Laffan. The March strikes and the strait’s closure took an estimated 30% of global helium production offline, with damage assessments suggesting some infrastructure could take years — not weeks — to fully restore. US distributors invoked force majeure, began rationing, prioritized healthcare customers, and layered on surcharges; spot prices spiked.

    Helium cannot be synthesized. It is a finite, non-renewable gas with no substitute in its critical uses: semiconductor fabrication, advanced chip packaging, MRI machines, and the sealed interior of every high-capacity hard drive at a moment when AI-driven data-center demand is surging. Seagate and Western Digital reported full-year allocations and 20–30% price increases; South Korean chipmakers were reported to be running on roughly six months of inventory.

    And every gram of Qatari helium leaves the country the same way: by ship, through Hormuz. There is no pipeline alternative, no overland route, no bypass — helium’s only exit from the world’s second-largest production hub is that one 33-kilometer-wide waterway. A network of crude pipelines could be completed tomorrow and it would not move a single liter of helium to a chip fab in Taiwan.

    Why the framing matters
    None of this means the bypass pipelines are a bad idea. Reducing the world’s dependence on a single crude chokepoint is prudent, and market-driven redundancy is exactly what one would want. Bessent is right that capital routes around risk, and that Tehran has accelerated its own strategic marginalization by weaponizing the strait.

    But the claim that “the Strait of Hormuz will become irrelevant” is grossly misleading. The waterway’s true strategic weight comes from its role as the shared export gate for a bundle of commodities — LNG, urea, ammonia, sulphur, helium — that are seaborne by physics, concentrated in a handful of Gulf facilities, and impossible to re-source at speed. Each has been disrupted in the real world over the past five months, and each disruption has produced price shocks and downstream damage that a crude pipeline is powerless to prevent.

    The current market underlines the point. As of early August, Brent was trading in the mid-$80s and climbing on Hormuz headlines, with a war-risk premium that has refused to deflate through months of on-again, off-again negotiation — the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been drawn down to its lowest level since the 1980s in the process. That premium reflects traders pricing the whole basket of what the strait carries, not just its barrels of crude. Until there is a plan for the LNG tanker, the ammonia cargo, the sulphur shipment, and the helium flask — none of which fits in a pipeline — Hormuz will remain very far from irrelevant.

    A pipeline can carry crude. It cannot carry the rest of what Hormuz moves. And it is the rest that is quietly reshaping the global economy right now.

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