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 September 2, 2026  Posted by at 9:30 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  Add comments


Henri Matisse Sorrow of the King 1952


Dangerous Talk of Putin’s ‘Loss’ in Ukraine (VIPS)
Russia Moving Towards Resolving Ukraine Conflict – Putin (RT)
Ukraine Tried To Copy Russia’s Battlefield Tactics, Walked Into A Trap (RT)
Le Pen Would Beat Every Rival In 2027, Major French Poll Finds (ZH)
Supreme Court Rule 5-4 to Eliminate Lawsuit Against White House Ballroom (CTH)
Eye of the Beholder: Aesthetic Injury and the White House Ballroom (Turley)
Wolf Blitzer’s Trump Mail-In Voting Lie Blows Up in His Face (Margolis)
400,000 California Voters Didn’t Provide Any ID at Registration (Salgado)
EU Can’t Raid Europeans’ Savings Accounts, and It Drives them Nuts (O’Brien)
Carney Picked a Trade War With Trump—But Why? (Victor Davis Hanson)
BYD Inquires to Purchase Stellantis Auto Plant in Canada (CTH)

 


 

https://twitter.com/MAGAVoice/status/2094537377557688323?s=20 https://twitter.com/Q_TheStormRider/status/2094711609705087445?s=20

 


 


I think Trump already knows. The notion that Ukraine can win is idiotic.

Dangerous Talk of Putin’s ‘Loss’ in Ukraine (VIPS)

MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
SUBJECT: Dangerous Talk of Putin’s ‘Loss’ in Ukraine


VIPS tells President Trump that once apprised of the reality on the ground (and in the air) by his intelligence advisors, he might choose to do what is in his power to end the disaster in Ukraine.

Dear President Trump:
The New York Times is reporting that the outlook for Russia in Ukraine is “bleak.” C.I.A. Director John Ratcliffe is said to have explained that to the Russians while in Moscow Tuesday. He reportedly urged them “to cut a deal before their military and economic situation gets worse.”

We write you on the chance you may be taken in by this latest song and dance. We believe it is orchestrated by the same kind of geniuses who told President Joe Biden to announce on July 13, 2023, in a major speech in Helsinki, that the Russians had “already lost the war” in Ukraine.

We suggest that you “kick the tires,” if they try to sell you that same car. Nothing could be further from the truth. Your predecessor was ill-served by intelligence. We suspect you are getting the same tendentious treatment from your own advisers. Indeed, many of them seem unconscionably relaxed about risking wider war with Russia over Ukraine.


We offer you, as we offered Biden, the following jogs to memory:

— December 3, 2022: “Russia is using up ammunition quite quickly. It’s pretty extraordinary. Our sense is that Russia is not capable of indigenously producing what they are expending at this stage.” (National Intelligence Director Avril Haines)

— March 18, 2022: “Russia has lost in Ukraine. The West should recognize this Russian defeat.” (Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute)

— July 1 & July 7, 2023: “Putin’s war has already been a strategic failure for Russia – its military weaknesses laid bare; its economy badly damaged for years to come.” (C.I.A. Director William Burns)

The Church of Latter-Day Pundits
Two NY Times journalists who specialize in intelligence matters report Thursday that this latest version of the Russia-has-already-lost story is “the current C.I.A. director’s assessment.” They warn somewhat quizzically that, despite this, President Putin might ignore it “and choose to keep fighting.” But why would Putin do that? Indeed, the Gray Lady and her intelligence sources seem quite baffled by why Putin would keep trying when, according to U.S. officials and pundits, he started losing three and a half years ago and continues to lose. Could it possibly be that it was they that were wrong – terribly wrong?

Dismissing that as a possibility, they perform a somersault, straighten up, and chose to blame Putin’s advisers who, the Times says, have not “given Putin honest assessments of the war’s trajectory and toll.” If Black Humor is at work here, we do not find it funny. The slaughter in Ukraine brings hundreds of victims daily.

Russia is methodically advancing in Donbass along a thousand-mile front, it is weathering drone attacks on its oil and civilian infrastructure with enhanced interception and has enforced a virtual blockade on Ukraine’s largest port, Odessa, with withering aerial attacks. Ukraine’s manpower and interceptor shortages make it impossible for it to ever recover its lost territory, as you acknowledged after your meeting with President Putin in Alaska.

Mr. President, if you were given access to reality-based, honest intelligence, you would be able to decide for yourself whose advisers have gotten it right over these past five years. And, once apprised of the reality on ground (and in the air), you might choose to do what is in your power to end the disaster in Ukraine.

Déjà Vu
This is not the first time we advised a president to seek unbiased advice with a view toward avoiding unnecessary, catastrophic war. We did that just a few hours after Colin Powell’s deceptive presentation to the U.N. Security Council on February 5, 2003. Today, we strongly suggest that you broaden your circle of advisers, as we urged President George W. Bush to do then, in our first VIPS Memorandum, which ended with this recommendation:

“After watching Secretary Powell today, we are convinced that you would be well served if you widened the discussion beyond the circle of those advisers clearly bent on a war for which we see no compelling reason and from which we believe the unintended consequences are likely to be catastrophic.”

FOR THE STEERING GROUP, VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY (VIPS)
• Fulton Armstrong, former National Intelligence Officer (ret.)
• Marshall Carter-Tripp, Foreign Service Officer (ret.); Division Director, State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research
• Philip Giraldi, C.I.A., Operations Officer (ret.)
• Matthew Hoh, former Capt., USMC, Iraq and Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan (associate VIPS)
• Larry C. Johnson, former C.I.A. and State Department Counter Terrorism officer
• John Kiriakou, former C.I.A. Counterterrorism Officer and former senior investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
• Karen Kwiatkowski, former Lt. Col., U.S. Air Force (ret.), at Office of Secretary of Defense watching the manufacture of lies on Iraq, 2001-2003
• Douglas MacGregor, Colonel, USA (ret.) (associate VIPS)
• Ray McGovern, former U.S. Army infantry/intelligence officer & C.I.A. analyst; C.I.A. Presidential briefer (ret.)
• Elizabeth Murray, former Deputy National Intelligence Officer/NE, National Intelligence Council & C.I.A. political analyst (ret.)
• Scott Ritter, former MAJ, USMC; former U.N. Weapons Inspector, Iraq
• Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)
• Sarah G. Wilton, CDR, USNR, (ret.); Defense Intelligence Agency (ret.)
• Ann Wright, retired U.S. Army reserve colonel and former U.S. diplomat who resigned in 2003 in opposition to the Iraq War

Read more …

“Moscow is making every effort to end the hostilities as soon as possible, the Russian president told Indian PM Narendra Modi..”

Russia Moving Towards Resolving Ukraine Conflict – Putin (RT)

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on August 31, 2026. © Sputnik / Pyotr Kovalev Russia is actively seeking to end the Ukraine conflict, President Vladimir Putin told Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Kyrgyzstan on Monday.


The two leaders discussed the Ukraine conflict among other issues, with the Indian prime minister calling for a peaceful resolution to the ongoing hostilities and urging the sides to “move in this direction.”“Thank you, dear prime minister. That is the way we’re heading for,” the Russian president replied.Moscow has repeatedly said that it is ready to resume Ukraine peace talks at any time, provided that they are focused on addressing the “root causes” of the conflict, including Ukraine’s plans to join NATO. Russia insists that the conflict has its roots in the 2014 Western-backed coup in Kiev and subsequent attempts by the new Ukrainian government to suppress the rebellion in Donbass by force.

Ukraine later failed to implement the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, which were intended to reintegrate the breakaway regions into Ukraine by granting them broad autonomy through comprehensive political reform.In a June article for Politico, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Moscow had explored every diplomatic avenue to defuse the Ukraine and Europe security crisis, but the US and NATO rejected Russia’s proposal for legally binding mutual security guarantees in January 2022.

Kiev’s Western backers also sabotaged the Istanbul talks between Russia and Ukraine that were launched soon after the Ukraine conflict escalation in February 2022.Then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson infamously traveled to Kiev in April of that year to tell Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky to drop any negotiations and “just fight,” thus slamming the door on any genuine diplomacy in the short term, according to Lavrov.

Moscow has consistently stated that it hopes to achieve a lasting settlement to the conflict and not simply a temporary ceasefire. Russia is demanding that Ukraine abandon its plans to join NATO and adopt a neutral status, accept restrictions on its armed forces, and formally recognize Crimea and four former Ukrainian regions as Russian territory.Russia also presented a roadmap towards the final settlement, which involved a ceasefire along the current front line linked to the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from parts of Russian territory they control, an end to mobilization, and an end to Western military aid to Ukraine.

Kiev has repeatedly rejected any proposals put forward by Moscow, while continuing to claim sovereignty over the four former Ukrainian territories as well as Crimea.

Read more …

“Behind Kiev’s claims of ‘liberated’ territory lies a failed operation, abandoned assault teams and an increasingly unstable southern front..”

Ukraine Tried To Copy Russia’s Battlefield Tactics, Walked Into A Trap (RT)

Last week, Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky, along with the new Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Mikhail Drapaty, visited a section of the front line in Dnepropetrovsk region. Zelensky stated that this year, the AFU has almost completely regained control of Dnepropetrovsk Region, with only about 10 square kilometers of territory remaining under Russian control. What is the logic behind this PR campaign? Did the AFU really make progress in this direction? What were the real goals of the Ukrainian operation, and to what extent have they been achieved? We explore all this below.


The southern sector is the most strategically important part of the 1,500-kilometer-long front. On one end it borders the Dnieper River, while the other end stretches northeast to Pokrovsk, where, as it is generally considered, the central sector of the front begins.

In 2023, Ukraine’s only strategic offensive took place in this area. The AFU’s aim was to reach the sea and cut off the land corridor to the Crimea by means of two decisive blows. If successful, this operation would have radically worsened the situation for the Russian army and, according to Kiev’s plans, changed the course of the conflict. Even though the 2023 offensive failed, this section of the front did not become less important for the AFU. In the spring of 2026, with the aim of cutting off supply routes to the Crimea, the AFU launched a middle strike campaign, particularly targeting the highway located 50-70 km from the front line. These attempts have so far proven unsuccessful.

For Russia, the southern sector of the front is extremely important for three reasons. Firstly, as the front is pushed further north, Ukrainian middle strikes become less effective. Secondly, the capture of the city of Orekhov will pave the way for an advance toward Zaporozhye, a regional center with a pre-war population of over 700,000 and one of the largest industrial cities remaining under Kiev’s control.

Ukrainian soldiers from the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade drive in the evacuation buggy near the road sign ‘Orikhiv’ damaged by Russian shelling. © Andriy Andriyenko / SOPA Images / Sipa USA Thirdly and most importantly, an advance north from Zaporozhye will allow the Russian army to approach the central sector of the front from the rear, either encircling it or at least significantly disrupting its supply lines.

Last year brought troubling news for the AFU in the southern sector of the front as the defense near the city of Gulaipole collapsed. At the time, all forces were pulled for the defense of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, while several areas in the south were left with no one to defend them. As a result of the successful campaign of Russia’s East Group of Forces to identify and destroy drone crews, the AFU were forced to abandon approximately 300 square kilometers between the Yanchur and Gaichur rivers without fighting. To restore the front, then Commander-in-Chief Syrsky was forced to curtail the counteroffensive near Pokrovsk and essentially abandon the encircled garrison in neighboring Mirnograd.

This situation determined the priorities of the 2026 spring-summer campaign for the AFU: the aim was to restore the southern front at all costs, eliminate the threat to Zaporozhye, and push Russian forces as far east and south as possible to relieve strategic pressure on the central sector of the front.

We don’t have any information from the Ukrainian General Staff, so we can only assess the operation’s goals based on indirect evidence. Apparently, the AFU planned two auxiliary strikes in the Stepnogorsk and Uspenovka area to cut off the pincers of the Russian army, which threatened to close in around Orekhov. The main strike, however, was to be directed at Velikaya Novoselka. If it had been successful, the entire defense system of the East Group of Forces from Gulipole to the junction with the Center Group of Forces near Pokrovsk would have collapsed and the Russian army would have been pushed back 30-40 kilometers.

The AFU’s attacks began in the spring and were accompanied by an unprecedented media campaign. The operation was labeled a second counteroffensive, Ukrainian authorities claimed dozens of “liberated” settlements and hundreds of square kilometers of reclaimed territory, and once-respected Western publications churned out articles about a turning point on the front, a heroic Ukrainian offensive that would change the course of the war, and other such nonsense.

However, by mid-summer, news about the AFU’s success on the southern front became less frequent and after Syrsky’s removal, disappeared completely. Instead, news surfaced about the plight of Ukrainian storm troops which, advancing through the gray zone, got stuck there for weeks and even months. It was reported that due to disruptions in aerial deliveries, the soldiers hid in stashes, lacked food, and were forced to drink their own urine.

Read more …

The future of Europe hangs in the balance. Last chance to beat the globalists.

Le Pen Would Beat Every Rival In 2027, Major French Poll Finds (ZH)

Marine Le Pen would win France’s 2027 presidential election against every major rival now being measured, according to a major survey by Elabe published on August 29 for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche.


France elects its president in two rounds: a crowded first round on April 18 cuts the field to the top two – no one will win outright – and the survivors meet again on May 2. Elabe has Le Pen at 34% to 35.5% in round one depending on who else runs, far clear of the pack, then beating every potential runoff opponent it tested. The new poll comes on the heels of a Nomura report which showed Le Pen with a commanding first-round lead.

The rest of the field is fighting over second place. Édouard Philippe, the former prime minister and the most plausible face of the post-Macron center, leads that pack at about 17% when he stands alone. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is on 14% to 14.5%, having lost his summer lift. Raphaël Glucksmann, now in the race, is between 11.5% and 14%. Gabriel Attal’s presence mainly splits the moderate vote.

According to the poll, here’s Le Pen:
• versus Philippe: 52.5% to 47.5%
• versus Attal or Glucksmann: 57% to 43%
• versus Mélenchon: 69.5% to 30.5%

For a generation, French presidential politics assumed a front républicain: a cross-party second-round squeeze that would keep the National Rally out of the Élysée. It elected Chirac 82-18 over her father in 2002 and Macron twice over her; yet the margin has narrowed every time. According to the Elabe poll, that squeeze is no longer automatic. Le Pen is not only first in April. She is ahead in May against every opponent Elabe put up. Even against Philippe, the closest of them, she leads by five points.

Le Pen’s popularity has perhaps been boosted by her status as a martyr – created by what some might consider establishment efforts to throw her off track. On July 7 the Paris court of appeal upheld her embezzlement conviction in the European Parliament assistants case. It shortened the ban on holding office enough for her to stand and imposed a year of house arrest with an electronic tag. Her appeal to the Cour de Cassation freezes that sentence while she campaigns. The court has said it aims to rule before the first round. A confirmed tag would not take her off the April ballot. It would frame the May runoff. Le Pen herself has said she could not campaign tagged – though sentence remission could free her by early 2027 either way. Jordan Bardella remains the party’s designated stand-in.

At the summer gathering of MEDEF (France’s main employers’ federation) at Roland-Garros on August 27 she set out a €125 billion savings path and a plan to let long-tenure workers retire at 60 to 62, costed at about €9 billion and described as a “societal choice.” French banks are still wary of financing National Rally campaigns. On these numbers, voters are less so.

Bond markets are pricing the wider strain – as French 10-year yields have been near 4.1%, their highest since late 2008. The extra yield over German Bunds is about 80 basis points, the wide end of a 59-to-85 range over the past year. That premium reflects a hung Assembly, a government that has already stumbled on the budget, a 2027 finance bill due in October that may not pass in ordinary form, a deficit still near 5% of GDP, and IMF debt figures already around 118.5% this year and through 120% in 2027.

The working rule of French politics was that Le Pen could reach the steps of the Élysée and not the door – but rules were made to be broken.

Read more …

“Supreme Court Rule 5-4 to Eliminate Lawsuit Against White House Ballroom and National Defense Complex – Chief Justice Roberts Joined the Minority..”

Supreme Court Rule 5-4 to Eliminate Lawsuit Against White House Ballroom (CTH)

Somehow Chief Justice John Roberts found that a single person who walks past the White House every month and doesn’t like the proposed appearance of the ballroom has some standing to sue and block construction. Go figure. Roberts also decided that the Obamacare mandate wasn’t a tax. Roberts joined with the minority DEI judges in his position. However, the majority decision was against the woman having standing to sue. Therefore, the lawsuit was dispatched and the building can continue.


SCOTUS BLOG – […] On Monday, a divided court granted the government’s request for a stay, permitting construction to move forward while the litigation continues in the lower court. The majority’s opinion focused primarily on its conclusion that the National Trust likely does not have standing to challenge the project. The trust had submitted a declaration from Alison Hoagland, a member who lives in Washington, D.C., and said that she visits the area where the White House is located approximately once per month.

Hoagland, who has “expertise in historic architecture,” claimed that the project caused “‘injuries’ to her ‘aesthetic, cultural, and historical interests’ because she finds the ‘scale,’ ‘height,’ and ‘massing’ of the government’s design distasteful.” But those are not the kind of “concrete” and specific injuries required to bring a lawsuit, the majority explained.

The majority also concluded that the government would be permanently harmed if Leon’s order were allowed to go into effect – another key criterion in determining whether to grant emergency relief. Among other things, it noted, senior government officials “attest[] that constructing something approximating the height and mass of the intended above-ground ballroom is ‘crucial’ to the security of the below-ground military installation.”

In his six-page dissent, which Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson joined, Roberts countered that “[a] historic preservationist such as Hoagland can be aesthetically injured in a concrete, particularized way by the transformation of a historic building that she frequently enjoys, just as,” based on prior court precedent, “an environmentalist can sustain a concrete, particularized aesthetic injury from the extinction of a particular animal or the transformation of a particular forest or river that he regularly enjoys.” Roberts ended the opinion by quoting Winston Churchill, who said that “[w]e shape our buildings, and afterwards our buildings shape us.” “All the more reason,” according to Roberts, “to ensure that those responsible follow the rules in deciding what to tear down and what to build up at the People’s House.”


President Trump – “I am pleased to report that the United States Supreme Court has just ruled in favor of the Ballroom/Military Complex being built without any further contingency, doubt, or threat. We are living in the Golden Age of America, and this Building will be one of the Greatest ever constructed in Washington, D.C. When completed in the Summer of 2028, the magnificent Ballroom and Military Complex will be something that the entire Country is very proud of. The Project, despite the baseless lawsuit brought by the so-called National Trust for Historic Preservation of the United States, which is not in any way affiliated with the United States Government, is under budget and ahead of schedule. The Ballroom is totally funded by Great Patriots and Corporations and, therefore, is a Gift — At no cost to the American Taxpayer. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

President DONALD J. TRUMP

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“She asserts that having to view the finished ballroom the government is constructing would cause her to suffer “injuries” to her “aesthetic, cultural, and historical interests” because she finds the “scale,” “height,” and “massing” of the government’s design distasteful.”

Eye of the Beholder: Aesthetic Injury and the White House Ballroom (Turley)

The Administration won a major victory before the Supreme Court this week, securing a 5-4 decision allowing the resumption of construction of the new White House ballroom. Notably, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote a dissent with his three liberal colleagues to oppose the move. The case turns on the standing of challengers to bring the case. However, as a torts professor, what intrigued me was what the case says about aesthetic injuries.


In torts, I teach aesthetic nuisance cases where courts tend to reject claims of injury due to eyesores and blight. Such claims are disfavored in both codes and cases: “Things merely disagreeable, however, which simply displease the eye or offend the taste, or shock an oversensitive or fastidious nature, no matter how irritating or unpleasant, are not nuisances.” 81 N.Y. Jur. 2d Nuisances § 17 (2014).

As one court ruled in Missouri in Ness v. Albert, 665 S.W.2d I (Mo. Ct. App. 1983):“Aesthetic considerations are fraught with subjectivity. One man’s pleasure may be another man’s perturbation…Judicial forage into such a nebulous area would be chaotic. Any imaginary good from doing so is far outweighed by the lurking danger of unduly circumscribing inherent rights of ownership of property and grossly intimidating their lawful exercise.” The decision in National Park Service, et al. v. National Trust for Historic Preservation in the United States raises a parallel issue on standing. At issue is the right of a private group to stop a major construction project based on claims that the ballroom is oversized and obnoxious to some.

The Court has long maintained a demanding standing doctrine under Article III of the Constitution, requiring a showing of an “injury in fact” that is based on the “invasion of a legally protected interest.” Lujan v. Defenders of Wildlife, 504 U. S. 555, 560 (1992). That requires an injury that is “(a) concrete and particularized . . . and (b) actual or imminent.” The claim, upheld by the D.C. Circuit, is based primarily on the eyesore injury of one person who would have to walk by the structure:

“To establish its standing to bring this case, the Trust relies on a declaration from a single of its members, Alison K. Hoagland. Hoagland says she lives in Washington, D.C., and expects to visit the neighborhood around the White House “about once a month.” App. to Application 73a–74a. She asserts that having to view the finished ballroom the government is constructing would cause her to suffer “injuries” to her “aesthetic, cultural, and historical interests” because she finds the “scale,” “height,” and “massing” of the government’s design distasteful. Id., at 75a. On the strength of that declaration, the Trust contends, it has Article III standing to challenge the East Wing project.”

The per curiam opinion rejects the aesthetic injury at the base of the standing claim. The majority notes the importance of the project, including security elements such as the bunker below the ballroom. It then states: Meanwhile, on the other side of the ledger and against these harms, the only harm the Trust claims is the offense one of its members will suffer from having to view a structure of the “scale,” “height,” and “massing” the government intends…These harms and equities are not nearly in equipoise.

The size of the ballroom has drawn criticism from many, including many who agree with the President that a ballroom has long been needed. Architects associated with the project demurred as the President demanded a large structure. However, the question is whether that injury alone can sustain judicial review. The Supreme Court has reaffirmed that an eyesore is no injury when it comes to Article III standing.

Read more …

Why do I think he must be 120 years old? He’s been there forever. And a day.

Wolf Blitzer’s Trump Mail-In Voting Lie Blows Up in His Face (Margolis)

On Friday, Wolf Blitzer decided it was his job to help Democrats lie about President Donald Trump. At least this time, he was forced to issue a correction.Blitzer made a blatantly false claim during Friday’s episode of The Situation Room, when he sat down with Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) to discuss a multi-state Democrat lawsuit fighting President Donald Trump’s March executive order meant to ensure only eligible citizens can vote by mail.


It started when Spanberger, without any evidence, accused the Trump administration of trying to intimidate voters into staying home. “The continued attacks that we’re seeing from the Trump administration is really just an effort to get people fearful, to get people to stay home, and, in many cases, to eliminate what is a valid, safe, secure way for people to be able to have their voices heard and to vote,” she said.That’s when Blitzer decided to imply that Trump’s order would impact the military. “And in Virginia, you have a lot of military personnel who totally rely on mail-in ballots if they want to be able to express their opinions,” he told her.

“That’s true,” Spanberger said, even though it wasn’t. “It’s members of the military service, of our diplomatic service, intelligence services, people serving overseas in service to our country who get their ballots mailed to them at the various postings throughout the world.” Now, one of two things happened here. Either Spanberger and Blitzer were legitimately clueless about the facts, or they knew the facts and just decided to push falsehoods anyway. Dare to guess which it is? There’s no excuse for either. Spanberger is part of a lawsuit fighting the order, yet clearly doesn’t understand what the order does. Blitzer, as a member of the media, should have known better.

Trump signed the executive order Blitzer lied about on March 31, 2026, and it has been picked apart, litigated, and debated in public ever since. There was plenty of time to get the facts straight before going on television and telling however many viewers CNN still has that Trump was coming for military ballots. Blitzer didn’t bother. He repeated a scare story handed to him by a Democrat governor, let her validate it, and let it sit there unchallenged for three days until he finally walked it back.

On Monday, Blitzer had to issue a “quick note of clarification,” which is CNN-speak for “we got caught.” “We discussed legal challenges to the Trump administration’s directives for the Postal Service on mail-in voting,” Blitzer said. “A comment I made suggested that U.S. military and overseas voters’ ballots would be impacted by these directives. I want to be clear right now: Those ballots are exempt from the Postal Service’s new rules implementing the president’s March executive order.”

He added, “Those groups are covered under the Uniformed and Overseas Absentee Voting Act [UOCAVA], just to be specific on that point.”Blitzer’s correction came only after the false claim had already served its purpose: feeding viewers a panic narrative about Trump and mail-in voting. By the time the correction was made, it barely even mattered. Military and overseas voters remain protected under UOCAVA, and the new Postal Service rules expressly exempt their absentee ballots. CNN should explain how such a basic fact escaped a network that calls itself the “most trusted name in news.”

Read more …

Now count the whole country.

400,000 California Voters Didn’t Provide Any ID at Registration (Salgado)

Because the state of California allows people to register online without providing any proof of identity, anyone could register to vote and under any name. Hundreds of thousands of people have done just that, and it once again raises the question of just how solid Democrat control in California would be without fraud.


Bill Essayli, first assistant U.S. attorney for the Central District of California, just arrested a Honduran national who illegally registered to vote in California. But it is incredibly easy to do; anyone, indeed, could do so as long as he or she has a fake address ready and checks the options for no ID and no Social Security. Apparently, almost half a million people have taken advantage of this scam.

In the clip below, Fox News co-anchor Bill Hemmer talks with Essayli about Darwin Rivera Flores, a “noncitizen born in Honduras, and you at DOJ were able to get your hands on his voter registration forms.” Last year, Rivera “falsely claimed to be a U.S. citizen. He checked the box attesting he’s a U.S citizen born in the United States; he signed it under penalty of perjury,” Hemmer went on. “Bill, in California, there’s no one checking this, right? Entirely the honor system.”

Essayli confirmed that and continued, “This case really highlights the vulnerability in California’s voter rules. They basically allow anybody to register to vote on the honor system. There’s nobody in government that is checking to confirm you’re a citizen, and in fact, in this case, he, on the form, [put] down a California driver’s license and a Social Security [number], which he had, because he has a visa, [but] that does not prove you’re a citizen. And according to the Secretary of State, they say at least half a million people don’t even provide that information when they register to vote.” In his post, Essayli put the number more precisely at 400,000.

California allows a crazy number of IDs as proof for registering to vote, including health club memberships, welfare checks, senior citizen cards, and drug prescriptions. But 400,000 voters didn’t even provide that much.

Registered Republican Spencer Pratt ought to have advanced to the general election for the Los Angeles mayoral race. Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton has rapidly closed the gap between him and Democrat Xavier Becerra in the polls. And there are still enclaves of Republicans throughout the state of California. But so long as Democrats can vote-harvest from homeless people, encourage illegal aliens to vote, and “count” for several weeks after Election Day, we can be sure no GOP candidate will ever win a major race in the state again. Of course Democrats don’t want to audit their voter rolls or require proof of ID to register and vote in the state of California. That could upset their whole insurance plan for staying in power.

After all, why worry about audits and reforms if you know your candidates could win honestly? The only reason for fighting federal reforms tooth and nail is if election officials and other politicians know perfectly well that their elections are compromised.

Read more …

“… it will never be like the U.S. for one simple reason: it doesn’t have the guts or the will.”

EU Can’t Raid Europeans’ Savings Accounts, and It Drives them Nuts (O’Brien)

When it comes to business and investment, the European Union (EU) thinks it can be like the U.S. It wants to be like the U.S., and it’s actively trying to be like the U.S. But it will never be like the U.S. for one simple reason: it doesn’t have the guts or the will.


The contrast between Europe’s risk-averse business culture and the American winner-take-all culture was on display last week when the president of the European Commission (EC), Ursula von der Leyen, delivered remarks at the annual French Entrepreneurs Conference. She’s not happy that, according to her, Europeans are keeping a collective 10 trillion euros in their bank accounts and not investing that money in European startups and other companies.

“In Europe, we have no shortage of technology or savings,” von der Leyen said. “But we still lack sufficient capacity to develop European companies on a large scale. Too many projects are stalled because the initial investment is too risky, demand is too uncertain or capital is too expensive. Our companies know how to start in Europe. But they also need to be able to grow here.” The EU president said that European startups tend to go outside of Europe for financing, and this is where she says, “They shift their center of gravity. Or they are bought out.”

I’m going to borrow a better description of von der Leyen from my colleague, Stephen Green, who calls her a “Euro-Scold,” which is so apt. So yeah, the Euro-Scold said the EU cannot finance the entrepreneurial growth with public funds alone. She said that Europeans have savings, quite a bit, actually, and she wants to get her hands on it. But regretfully for her and for her globalist allies, it’s not that easy. It seems that you can’t just raid people’s bank accounts in Europe if you want that money, at least not yet. That doesn’t prevent her, however, from lusting after that money, coveting it, and seeing it as just lying there unused in bank accounts.

The owners of those accounts may not see it that way. They may see those savings accounts as a safe haven from the likes of her and so many others whom they know could burn through 10 trillion euros pretty quickly and still have nothing to show for it. “Europe must now to put these savings to work for their companies,” she added. “This is the objective of the Economic and Investment Union. We have put forward proposals on securitization, investment by banks and insurance companies, and the integration and supervision of our markets. Together, these measures could unlock up to 470 billion euros in additional investment.”

https://twitter.com/coinbureau/status/2094655132747321387?s=20

I’m not sure about you, but ever since the COVID pandemic, any time I hear from this Euro-Scold and the globalists on the other side of the pond, I find myself immediately trying to read between the lines and looking for the secret word sequence where she introduces the Fourth Reich or some other. That’s not the case here. If her jargon sounds like jargon, it’s because that’s what it is. It’s neat-sounding terminology to mask the cultural impotence that is the European business climate, which can’t get its mind off of those 10 trillion euros it wants so badly.

Just in the way the EU is framing all of this, the culture is very top-down. The agenda is set by the government, not the marketplace, and that represents all the difference. In America, the entrepreneurial spirit is marked by a thriving private investment marketplace. In Europe, they like to talk about uses for the invested funds. In America, we talk about opportunity for investors to grow their money through the best possible return on investment (ROI).

These are two completely different mindsets, and the difference between the two says everything about why Europe is so terrible at fostering business and economic growth.What the Euro-Scold and her friends understand is that they’re not set up at the moment to give Europeans incentive to invest at scale in European ventures. They’ve come to realize that they simply don’t have the kind of investment infrastructure that incentivizes individual Europeans to invest.

Americans are different. It’s in this country’s DNA to try new things, to take risks, to innovate, to invent, to sometimes fail, to get back up, and to start over – all with as little government involvement as possible.

We love our stories of companies like Apple starting in Steve Jobs’ parents’ garage. We love it when we see Elon Musk make a ton of money and then gamble it all on multiple companies, including Tesla and SpaceX, to really blow expectations away and change the world. Americans don’t need a government to incentivize them into investing in these world-changing companies. The default impulse in America is for large swaths of potential investors to compete against each other to get in on some of that action.

Our markets are vibrant and exciting, sometimes too exciting, but still, they are nothing like the lukewarm European startup climate. Individual Americans, through their 401(k) plans at work, are collectively invested in mostly American companies to the tune of $10 trillion. IRA accounts represent another $18 trillion. Americans invested directly in mutual funds total close to $6 trillion. All U.S. retirement assets total more than $47 trillion, and that doesn’t even touch on the sheer level of individual investing that happens on a daily basis on Wall Street.

Metaphorically speaking, while American entrepreneurialism has been rockin’ and rollin’ for well over 100 years, the EU can’t decide whether it wants one lump of sugar or two in its afternoon tea, right before it takes its afternoon nap. And so, the Euro-Scold is seeking baby steps in trying to gently nudge Europeans to move chunks of their money from the safety of savings accounts to the risky world of startup funding. Good luck with that.

[..]

Read more …

It’s his identity. His Canadian followers demand he defeats Trump.

Carney Picked a Trade War With Trump—But Why? (Victor Davis Hanson)

Canada, everybody likes Canada. Come on. We all have—I have a brother-in-law who’s Canadian and a very nice person. But there’s three things to remember about Canada, this dispute. Number one are the issues, and they’re real. Number two is the timing. Why now? And number three, why does Mark Carney seem so angry?


He’s not a Stephen Harper, that wonderful prime minister that I think all of us on the conservative side, but all Americans in general, really admired. And he’s not Brian Mulroney, whom I admired, who just passed away not too long ago. So there’s three issues. There’s Carney, there’s the timing, and there’s the problem. The problem is that Canada pretty much got into a habit the last few years of running up a $50 billion to $70 billion surplus with the United States. Not as bad as Mexico, but under Donald Trump’s vision of symmetry, he wanted to address it.

And what made it egregious is we had a North American Free Trade Association, which was supposed to eliminate the need for tariffs and taxes on imported and exported goods because there would be fair dealing and there would not be differences very much. What Ross Perot… Remember he said that, that huge sucking sound of jobs—the sucking sound … and money. Yeah. That wasn’t gonna happen, we were told by [Bill] Clinton and [Al] Gore. And it did, and Mexico had a $200 billion. And the weird thing is, we told Mexico, “You’re not going to get Chinese cheap dump parts and assemble them and be the gateway for China to evade tariffs, to get, undercut our jobs.”

And they said, “Okay, we won’t do it.” Then we said, “We’re going to tax, we’re gonna start your remittances at 1%, $65 billion …” And we said that because we had 30 million illegal immigrants, mostly from Latin America and Mexico, who were largely recipients in some fashion of American largesse: housing, education, food, health care subsidies. We’re not gonna pay that and free them free cash to become the largest source of foreign exchange in Mexico, which we are.

Jack Fowler: Money, that probably had not been taxed in the U.S. either.

Victor Davis Hanson: No. No. And never had. It was probably cash. Then we tried to tell them about the cartels, and the point is, we were making progress, but not so much with Canada. They kept running this surplus. And then we said there were other peripheral issues. You promised to meet your NATO goals, and you never did. Last year they may have done it, but they may have done it by bookkeeping that counted salaries and infrastructure rather than just militarily strict budgeting.

And if they did, it was like 1.98%, 2.01% of GDP. So they were reliant on America’s nuclear shield and protection, and nobody in their right mind in America ever thought that if the Russians or the Chinese or the North Koreans threatened Canada, they would not be protected by us, either through anti-ballistic missile systems or forward … And they have no military. I think they have 79 jets that are functional. Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Kuwait have 300. Israel has 400.

Jack Fowler: And their landmass just begs to have broader coverage.

Victor Davis Hanson: So the issue was Trump said, “Let’s reopen negotiation.” They were all set. They agreed on everything. And by the way, it only affected 5% of all of the total amount. And he said through his agents, Howard Lutnick and the others, “If you do what Mexico is doing and you import cheap aluminum and steel from China that does not have a market economy, then you’re breaking the understanding because you are assembling things in cars and autos and sending them here that are not solely Canadian-made.

“And you’re doing it at the bequest of China. And number two, you are telling all of our social media companies, Meta and sales companies that are online, Amazon, Google, Twitter,” the old Twitter, X, excuse me. “You’re telling them they have to pay 5% so that they don’t smother Canadian culture just off the top of all their revenues, hundreds of, I don’t know what it was, hundreds of millions of dollars. Why are you picking on these companies? And this is in addition to any other import fees or anything.

“We don’t do that with yours. When I read the National Post, the government doesn’t say to the National Post, ‘You are influencing American public opinion and you’re stifling our culture, so we need to tax you 5%.’” So that was the issue. And the other issue was that after a certain percent, tariffs went up 250% on dairy and farm products to Canada. And Canada said they were supporting independent entrepreneurial family farms. But like everything Carney says, it’s not accurate.

If you’re a Canadian farmer or you’re a Canadian egg producer, whatever, you get an allotment from the government. You can’t just go out and start something, just like you can’t set up an X-ray or a CT center. Everything is controlled. So the idea that the United States was gonna drive you out, maybe it could hurt you if we ever got up to the 250. They said, “It’s 250%” but we never really charge you.” And we said, “We never really charge you because all of our companies, when they meet your little quota, they can’t send anymore because it’ll be up to 250%, so they self-restrict it.” So that was the situation. Carney then blew up and said, “We’re not going to let the United States destroy our sovereignty and tell us who we have to trade with.”

Subtext: If we want to help communist China dump product in the United States by assembling it into our automobiles, trucks, etc., at cheap stuff, which even our steel and aluminum people don’t want, and our companies and unions want to agree with the Americans and restrict it, we’re gonna walk out. And more importantly, if you don’t wanna pay, then you’re stifling the French language. So it was all misdirection, number one, and it didn’t really make that much difference because, as I said, it was only a tariff. So why did he blow up?

[..]

Yeah. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Exactly. And there are key Senate races in where? Maine, right on the border, Michigan, right on the border, and Wisconsin. And so, what Carney was trying to do was to get people in the United States sympathetic to Canada, and here’s Donald Trump again. And Donald Trump helped fuel that when he said he was gonna rename Lake Ontario, Lake America. Lake Ontario’s 55% of its mass is in Canada. I think most Americans don’t care that it’s called Lake Ontario. This was the way he was trolling them. But the Left went crazy as if they never rename things, which they rename everything.

So my point is, he took two issues that were not really issues. He blew them up, he stormed out, and he did this to tell the Canadian electorate, “Don’t try to break away or flirt with America or flirt with yourself as an independence providence—whatever it is, ’cause I am standing up for Pan-Canadianism against the Americans.” And then he was telling the Americans in Michigan, in Maine, and in Wisconsin, “Your prices are higher? It’s because your stupid president has tariffs and went after us.” What he didn’t really tell them is that, when Alberta’s, I guess it was Mr. Ford, said we might cut off oil exports, the Americans shrugged their shoulders and said:

“Go ahead. We’re the largest producer of oil and gas in the world. The Persian Gulf is settling down. Price of oil is going down. But more importantly, you have a heavy crude sulfurous product. Your own provinces will not let you send it easily on pipelines to transport centers where you can send it to China. You send it right across the border to the United States. “We refine it, and guess what? Natural gas, in the case of natural gas, you can’t even send it to Montreal through your own territory because you have these provincial restrictions, environmental nuttiness. So we take your natural gas and we pass it along and plug it into our pipelines, and then it goes back up to Montreal.”

They didn’t even know that when they walked out.

Read more …

I like Sundance, obviously. But he shouldn’t claim Musk is wrong for something he said 15 years ago. BVD was in a very different situation back then.

“China even goes so far as to fund alarmism research about climate change because they are making money selling carbon credit certificates..”

“BYD is, in essence, not a car per se’, but a mechanism to generate a carbon credit certificate that can be sold to other car companies.”

BYD Inquires to Purchase Stellantis Auto Plant in Canada (CTH)

For about a year CTH has predicted Chinese auto manufacturers BYD and GEELY would take over shuttered auto plants in Canada. Specifically, six months ago, against the backdrop warning of Stellantis, Toyota and Honda telling the Canadian government that without the USMCA they would shift auto production to the USA, CTH predicted BYD and GEELY would make moves on those closed facilities. he move by China is easy to predict. Prime Minister Mark Carney has opened the door to Chinese EVs. It would be in Beijing’s best interest to retool and take control of closed plants to begin mass production in North America.


Chinese EV manufacturing in Canada serves two purposes. First, they would not be limited in production to the cars that remain in Canada as part of the agreement. Factually, China would use their Canadian footprint as an export hub into Europe and save money on current distribution. Remember, Europe is losing their auto manufacturing base to China and Germany is laying off 100,000+ auto workers. Second, the appearance of Chinese auto manufacturing in North America would put pressure on the United States to permit their cheap EVs to enter the market.

Today Bloomberg is reporting exactly what we predicted. Chinese automaker BYD (Build Your Dream) is asking local officials about the currently idled Stellantis auto plant. Things are following a very predictable timeline.

BLOOMBERG – Chinese carmaker BYD Co. inquired about taking over an idled Stellantis NV plant in the Toronto suburbs, according to a local politician, signaling possible global interest in Canadian auto hubs in the midst of a trade battle with the US. Patrick Brown, the mayor of Brampton, Ontario, said BYD approached him about six months ago to talk about making buses at the factory. Stellantis had been retooling the plant to manufacture the Jeep Compass, but the company halted that plan last year when the US adopted a policy of tariffs on foreign autos.

Brown said he also received inquiries from Leapmotor International, a joint venture between Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co. and Stellantis, as well as from an Italian automaker. Bloomberg News reported in April that Stellantis was discussing options for building electric vehicles in Canada with Leapmotor. Most of the vehicles Canada produces are exported to the US, but the trade war and the lack of a new product earmarked for the 40-year-old factory have clouded the future for thousands of people who work there. Unifor, the union representing those workers, said this month that Stellantis is considering selling the plant. (read more)


I went to Russia in 2024, because what I was hearing in western media about the sanctions did not align with what I was seeing from reports inside Russia. Before I went into Russia, I spent several weeks in Northern and Eastern Europe visiting various institutions, reading material and checking to see how systems in Europe were engaging with commerce given the Russian sanctions. It wasn’t very exciting work, and sometimes I literally just sat in the lobbies of banks listening to conversations.

When I went into Russia (April, May, June and July ’24) I noticed many of the “Uber cars” were BYD brand, Chinese electric vehicles. It made sense given two years of existing sanctions and few cars from Europe or America available except under costly brokerage fees for acquisition. The Russians like the Geely brand better, but BYDs are much cheaper. A brand new BYD costs around $5,000 to $10,000 USD, in some places even less. Then later I noticed even more of these BYD cars in Europe. I started to pay attention to them and saw them everywhere.

When I went back into Russia a year later in 2025, there was a very noticeable increase in BYD cars. It was crazy, they were everywhere. My travels also took me to southeast Asia and again those damned BYD’s were all over the place. In Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, these BYD’s were everywhere, maybe even 30% of total vehicle traffic at times – most certainly well over 50% of all EVs – and there are digital billboards for “Build Your Dream” (BYD) all over the place throughout Asia.

Australia is stocked full of those things, and the middle east, yup, even there too. It became increasingly weird to notice. So many were visible I was wondering how the heck China can mass produce and ship this many cheap EVs so fast. Then as serendipity would have it, I ran into a Chinese guy, professionally an actuary, in a hotel restaurant. He explained to me that China produces the BYD not to make money from the automobile, but rather to sell the carbon credits the automobile generates within the auto industry.

The actual value to Beijing is in selling the carbon credit worthiness to various automakers who are fined or penalized by their government for producing gasoline powered vehicles. BYD is, in essence, not a car per se’, but a mechanism to generate a carbon credit certificate that can be sold to other car companies. It’s the carbon credit certificate that generates the revenue, not the sale of the vehicle. As my dinner guest explained, the auto insurance industry was having fits about this because the actuaries couldn’t accurately put a correct figure on the cost of the insurance warrantee within the industry (that’s another story).

The bottom line is that China is manufacturing a product to create a carbon credit certificate in response to the demand for carbon credits from all the world auto-makers. Any nation that has a penalty or fine attached to their climate goals is a customer. Those are nations with fines or quotas associated with the production of gasoline powered engines if the auto company doesn’t hit the legislated target for sales of electric vehicles.

In essence, EU/AU/CA/RU/ASEAN car companies buy Chinese car company carbon credits, to avoid the EU/AU/CA/RU/ASEAN fines. The Chinese then use the carbon credit revenue to subsidize even lower priced Chinese EVs to the EU/AU/CA/RU/ASEAN car markets, thereby undercutting the EU/AU/CA/RU/ASEAN car companies that also produce EVs.

Big Panda brilliantly exploits the ridiculous pontificating climate scam and has an interest in perpetuating -even emphasizing- the need for the EU/AU/RU/ASEAN countries to keep pushing their climate agenda. China even goes so far as to fund alarmism research about climate change because they are making money selling carbon credit certificates on the back end of the scam to the western fear mongers. This is friggin’ brilliant.

My dinner buddy was in the business of identifying the cost/benefit equation between the climate change fines and the prices Big Panda could charge for the carbon credit certificates. If, as an example, Brussels dropped the quotas for EVs, China would need to lower the price for the carbon credit certificates. So, Beijing wants Brussels to make sure they don’t drop the quotas. See how that works?

The climate change alarmists are helping China’s economy by pushing ever escalating fear of climate change. You just cannot make this stuff up. What does the outcome look like? Well, in this example we see thousands of unsold BYDs piling up in countries that emphasize climate regulations with no restrictions on the import of EVs (which most don’t even manufacture), which is almost every country. Big Panda doesn’t care about the car itself; they care about generating the carbon credit certificate to sell in the various carbon exchanges.

Put this context to the recent announcement by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney about his trade deal with China to accept 49,000 EVs this year. Prime Minister Carney bragged about getting the Chinese to agree to only super low prices for the Canadian market. Mark Carney was very proud of his accomplishment to get much lower priced vehicles for Canadian EV purchasers. No doubt Big Panda left the room laughing as soon as Carney made his grand announcement.

1. China sells EV’s in Canada, creating credits available on the carbon exchange scheme. Europe et al will purchase the carbon credits because Bussels has fines against EU car companies.

2. With a foothold already established in Europe, China will then take the money generated by the carbon credit purchases and lower the prices of the Chinese EV cars sold in Canada.

It’s gets funnier.

3. Carney bragged about forcing China to only sell low price EV’s as part of the trade agreement. The low price of the EV’s in Canada will be subsidized by Europe. China doesn’t pay or lose a dime.

But wait….

4. Carney can’t do anything about the scheme he has just enmeshed Canada into, because Canada has a Carbon Credit exchange in law.

Big Panda wins again.

[…] In a statement published Thursday, BYD said sales of its battery-powered cars rose nearly 28% to 2.26 million units.

Musk openly laughed at the mention of BYD while being interviewed on Bloomberg TV in October 2011. He said he did not see the company as a competitor to Tesla, adding: “I don’t think they have a great product.” Meanwhile, Tesla said Friday it delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025. [SOURCE]

Elon thinks BYD are building cars. They aren’t.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Home Forums Debt Rattle September 2 2026

Viewing 38 posts - 1 through 38 (of 38 total)
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  • #248883

    Henri Matisse Sorrow of the King 1952 • Dangerous Talk of Putin’s ‘Loss’ in Ukraine (VIPS) • Russia Moving Towards Resolving Ukraine Conflict – Putin
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle September 2 2026]

    #248898
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Pepe Escobar: Rise of a Post-Western World at the SCO Summit

    #248899
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Iran RAZES US Marine Barracks! Trump’s FATAL Mistake | Larry Johnson & Col. Lawrence Wilkerson

    Fmr CIA analyst Larry Johnson and Col Lawrence Wilkerson discuss the mass casualty event rocking Trump and the Pentagon as Iran retaliates hard against US bases following a horrific war crime on a wedding party in Southern Iran. A deployment of US Marine Corps just took heavy casualties and we break down exactly how devastating it all is in this must watch show.

    #248900
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Economist Professor Richard Wolff explains why he believes the American empire is in decline—and why China and Asia are shaping the future of the global economy. We discuss the history of U.S. colonialism, the failures of American capitalism, China’s hybrid economic model, the economic consequences of the Iran war, and the growing appeal of socialism in the United States. Professor Wolff also examines whether America and China can peacefully coexist, how the upcoming midterm elections could reshape American politics, and why both Republicans and Democrats may be unprepared for the dramatic changes ahead.

    🔵 Follow Professor Wolff’s YouTube Here: / @richarddwolff
    🔵 Follow Professor Wolff’s and Democracy Now here: https://x.com/democracynow

    00:00 – Intro to Professor Richard Wolff
    00:30 – Can the United States Empire Survive?
    01:59 – Why the US Empire Will Collapse
    02:57 – The History of the US Colonialism
    07:05 – The United States’s Biggest Mistake
    08:28 – Why China and Asia is the Future
    09:18 – Can the US and China Work Together?
    10:25 – What is China Doing Better Than the US?
    11:55 – How the US Lost China
    12:45 – The Problem with US Capitalism
    16:00 – Why the Chinese Hybrid Economy Will Win
    17:55 – Why the Chinese Economy Outperforms the US
    19:45 – How China Rose from Poverty
    21:35 – How China Outperformed Every Other Country
    23:15 – Is the Chinese Economy Slowing Down?
    24:30 – Will the Iran War Dethrone the United States?
    25:33 – How the US Lost in Vietnam and Afghanistan
    26:45 – Why the Iran War is Different
    27:45 – How Socialism is Growing in America
    31:04 – How Will the Midterms Change America?
    34:05 – Why the Republicans and Democrats Are in Trouble
    36:50 – Why the Future Will Be Very Different
    38:57 – Final Thoughts

    #248904
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Elijah Magnier: Oil Tankers Ablaze in Hormuz – US-Iran Conflict Hits Boiling Point

    #248905
    John Day
    Participant

    Investing In Reality https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/investing-in-reality

    Surplus Energy Economics, The evolution of inverting scarcities – CAN WE DISINVEST IN MONEY?
    Value is a function of scarcity, and few have yet recognised a dramatic tilt in the balance of scarcities in the economy.
    The material, long assumed to be almost limitless in potential supply, is turning out to be severely constrained. Money, hitherto limited in quantity by at least some degree of policy restraint, has latterly become recklessly super-abundant, to the point of looming value destruction.
    There is a direct correspondence between the ending and reversal of meaningful economic growth and this rebalancing of scarcities. One of the most enduring myths in economics is the fallacy that a flagging material economy can be reinvigorated using monetary tools…
    ..Since 2005, and stated at constant values, global debt has grown by 150%, and broader financial assets (which are not disclosed in full) by not less than 175%.
    Nothing in the material economy has come anywhere near these rates of monetary expansion. Over that twenty-year period, energy consumption has increased by 34%, all-important ex-cost surplus energy by 26% and material economic prosperity by 24%.
    On the basis of inflecting comparative scarcities, investors should, ideally, be shorting anything monetary, and going long on the material…
    ..To do this, of course, we need first to recognise the critical conceptual distinction between the physical and the monetary. Properly understood, any reference to “the” economy is a misnomer. The “financial” economy of money, transactions and credit is a parallel and proxy for the underlying “real” economy of material products and services.
    This two economies conception is implicit in the nature of money. Irrespective of format, money is token, not substance – for the economic traveller, it’s map, not territory. Money has no intrinsic worth, and commands value only as an exercisable claim on those material things for which it can be exchanged… If the monetary out-grows the material, the only possible outcome is that shift in the monetary-material rate of exchange which is experienced as inflation…
    ..It is … surely self-evident that the economy is primarily an energy system, yet concepts such as the rate at which energy use converts into value, and the proportionate Energy Cost of Energy, are nowhere to be found in standard texts…
    ..The “real” economy operates by using energy to convert other natural resources – minerals, non-metallic mining products, chemicals, biomass and water – into goods, and into those artefacts and infrastructures without which no worthwhile service can be supplied…
    ..The rate at which raw materials convert into products and artefacts has been degraded gradually by depletion. The … Energy Cost of Energy – has been rising relentlessly, climbing from 2.0% in 1980, and 4.3% in 2000, to more than 11% today…
    ..It has always been obvious that growth must end eventually, since infinite economic expansion is a logical impossibility on an ultimately finite planet. This wouldn’t matter all that much if the moment of inflexion lay 100 years or more in the future. What really matters is whether the economy will stop growing and start to shrink within a relevant timescale.
    This question has now been answered in the affirmative. We know, at very high levels of confidence, that meaningful economic growth is ending, and that contraction lies ahead… These conclusions have been reached through an analytical path from first principles, but have abundant observational confirmation in events and trends that we can see around us…
    ..Broadly speaking, there are two schools of thought about happens when growth ends and contraction begins. One predicts chaotic collapse, and the other a gradual and perhaps manageable decline…
    ..First, which economy are we addressing? Will it be the “financial” economy that either collapses or contracts, or does one or other of these fates lie in store for the “real” economy of the material?
    Second, neither set of prophecies takes account of the critical process of economic evolution. Growth has never been a matter of ‘a little more, year after year, of exactly the same thing’. The economy has always evolved in shape and character, and will not cease doing so as it moves from growth into contraction…
    ..What we should anticipate is that the polarity of economic evolution will reverse. Hitherto, evolution has taken the combined form of ever-greater complexity and ever-more financialisation. From here on, the trend of evolution will be towards the simplified and the de-monetised…
    ..Financialisation involves an increase in the amount of monetary activity associated with any given quantity of material economic output.
    It’s noteworthy that a high proportion of economic activity was informal at the start of the industrial age. It’s been reckoned that, in Early Modern times – roughly 1500 to 1750 – only 20-30% of economic activity was monetised at all… It’s hard to tax informal economic activity, and equally difficult to make much of a profit out of it. Monetisation proceeded only gradually in the wake of industrialisation…
    ..With the specialist exception of monopolies of colonial trade – as in the British and Dutch East Indies – no large commercial enterprises would exist until the railway boom of the 1840s. Indeed, nobody even saw a need for the limited liability corporate structure until the 1850s. Until then, the economy wasn’t monetised enough for this to be necessary, and small firms predominated…
    ..Only later would the commercial world start to experience the rise of big business, the emergence of an executive class and “the divorce between ownership and control”. In these terms, the development of the railway was a lot more significant than the harnessing of steam itself. Steam engines could power mills and factories, which remained small-scale enterprises – but railways needed standardised steel products in abundance, a big supply of literate and numerate labour, and access to large pools of capital.
    Financialisation has proceeded hand-in-hand with complexification, with the latter often used as a reinforcement for the former… Vehicles have always needed electrics – lights, ignition, instruments and so on – but electronics have added comparatively little in the way of utility for the consumer. Rather, the aim has been to impose post-sale financial liens on the customer. This was exemplified when BMW announced, in 2022, that the heated seats on its cars would cease to work unless purchasers took out an $18/month subscription. This was quietly dropped, perhaps because it was a too-blatant case… But the general direction of travel has remained that of value-extracting, over-the-air control of vehicles after sale, enacted through advanced electronics. For the manufacturer, one great advantage of this imposed complexity is that owners and small workshops cannot maintain and repair advanced electronics…
    ..Industry preference will have very little say in what happens from here. Just as prosperity is declining, so the real costs of energy-intensive necessities are rising relentlessly. If the automobile industry is to survive into this future of contracting affordability, cars will have to become both longer-lived and cheaper to purchase and maintain. In essence, changing economic conditions will impose simplification on the industry…
    ..This simplification, with its associated de-financialisation, forms a tendency that Barry Cooper calls localism, a process whereby failing centralised, top-down systems are replaced by localised, bottom-up alternatives. Much of Cooper’s analysis is based on the elimination of costs associated with complexity… “In many private care homes, particularly those owned by private equity, debt repayment alone can account for 10–20% of total care fees”.
    This, Cooper says, “is public money, not used to improve lives but to finance commercial borrowing”. It’s also something that can no longer be afforded.
    Likewise, food has become excessively expensive because, during the long years of complexification, numerous interim stages have been interposed within extended supply-chains between the grower and the consumer of food…
    ..None of this – localism, informality of employment, at-home care for the elderly and the infirm, the replacement of top-down institutional systems and the elimination of intermediary stages – might sound like a winning political manifesto. But this is beside the point, since – as with the automobile industry, cited earlier – alternatives will be eliminated by the ending and reversal of growth.
    “Middle-men” will be removed from supply systems by the same processes that are already depressing the affordability of discretionary (non-essential) products and services. The employees made redundant by these trends will be absorbed into an economy in which human labour starts to replace declining supplies of exogenous energy.
    For the planner, the point to grasp is that the ending and reversal of growth – a process that we cannot prevent – will introduce trends tending irresistibly towards simplification and de-financialisation.
    Governments will need to seek solutions of quality, now that solutions of quantity, predicated on growth, have ceased to be possible. Businesses will be driven by practical conditions towards simplification of product and process.
    Ultimately, there’s no reason why the “real” economy of the material shouldn’t contract in a reasonably manageable way. But the complex will fail. https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2026/08/31/328-the-evolution-of-inverting-scarcities/

    Hegseth is the wife-beating “traitor” IMHO: ‘Betrayal’: Internal Pentagon Spat Emerges Over Leaked Middle East Deployment Plans
    A number of US military top generals have taken the rare step of formally registering warnings to Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth over potential plans for a new phase of strikes against a non-compliant Iran.
    The warnings reportedly emerged through the Secretary of Defense Orders Book, which enumerates the availability of US military resources and force posture around the world – with direct input from American regional commanders.
    That section from the WaPo report reads as follows: Army and Air Force leadership concurred with Hegseth’s desire to extend their deployed forces, but each emphasized that doing so would come with significant risk, these people said.
    Overall, the tenor from the military leadership is that the ongoing Iran operation, having reached the six-month mark, has been “too much for too long,” said one person familiar with the assessment.
    The military’s warning to Hegseth, which has not been previously reported, offers new insight into the administration’s dilemma as Trump seeks to end the conflict on terms favorable to the United States while Iran, cognizant of the war’s unpopularity with most Americans and its mounting toll on the U.S. arsenal, refuses to capitulate…
    ..Some pundits are warning that this alleged rare leak is an alarming sign Trump could be preparing to do something ‘big’. https://www.zerohedge.com/military/betrayal-internal-pentagon-spat-emerges-over-leaked-middle-east-deployment-plans

    Details from Times of India: 4 General & Admirals disagreed with continuation of Iran War, a “Non-Concur” documented in writing.
    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/did-us-military-warn-hegseth-over-iran-war-strain-before-latest-escalation-what-report-claims/articleshow/133642370.cms

    Iran’s Pezeshkian Gets Red Carpet Treatment Alongside Putin, Xi, Modi & Erdogan At Eurasian Summit
    Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is busy getting the red carpet treatment while attending the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit. Chinese President Xi Jinping, his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have arrived in Kyrgyzstan’s capital Bishkek for the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit – the primarily China/Russia founded Eurasian political, economic and international security organization which is now made up of ten member states. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/irans-pezeshkian-gets-red-carpet-treatment-alongside-putin-xi-modi-erdogan-eurasian

    #248906
    John Day
    Participant

    Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-09-01
    Two things genuinely broke overnight: the Japanese government bond curve (10Y through 3% for the first time since 1996, 30Y at an all-time high) and the Hormuz shipping truce, with a Saudi VLCC struck by three missiles and Maersk reporting two supertankers hit.
    Everything else is continuation with harder numbers – the SPR is at a 44-year low with 34 million barrels of statutory headroom left, the US diesel crack is knocking on $100/bbl, and Russia has taken Odesa’s port complex offline. The one genuinely new institutional story: the Army Secretary and his deputy both walked inside 24 hours…
    ..The Kharg Island footage was synthetic. Trump posted video captioned as Kharg being destroyed; the Defense Department then denied the US struck it. shanaka86 has the full chronology including Reuters’ AI-detection result and NIOC’s response. Corroborated by financialjuice and thesiriusreport. The actual operation was 660km east: two rocket launchers on Larak Island…
    ..On Larak: Mark4XX relays a Malcolm Nance reading that the Fajr-5 launchers were positioned to deliver smart mines into the Fujairah anchorage rather than the strait itself – the tanker parking lot the mine-clearance announcement never covered. Single-source, but a coherent explanation for why Larak specifically…
    ..Bonds: the JGB break drags every sovereign curve with it – Japan’s move is not isolated. France’s 30Y hit 4.9274%, highest since September 2008 (DeItaone); the French 10Y is at post-GFC highs (Barchart); Germany’s 10Y Bund at 3.31%, highest since 2011 and ~18bp below the 2011 peak (Schuldensuehner); Australia’s 10Y at its highest since 2011; Italy’s 10Y up 5bp to 4.15% (zerohedge).
    The US 10Y topped 4.75%, highest since January 2025, and zerohedge flags that the move is being driven by TIPS with breakevens barely moving – so it’s supply, demand, or growth, not inflation expectations.
    Twelve days after the Treasury’s buyback intervention was announced, yields are at a 19-month high (KobeissiLetter)…
    ..SPR: 34 million barrels of headroom, and Venezuelan crude that physically will not go in the caverns. https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-09-01

    Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-31
    The Iran war restarted overnight after five quiet weeks: the US hit missile launchers on Larak Island, Iran answered with ballistic missiles at two US airbases in Jordan and drones at Al Minhad in the UAE, and a supertanker in the US-escorted southern Hormuz corridor caught fire on two naval mines.
    Brent gapped back above $90 and Hormuz transits collapsed to five vessels a day. Everything else – Sumy villages falling, ag futures streaking, Warsh’s hawkish hangover – is continuation, but the Patriot interceptor burn rate and the leaked Pentagon “non-concur” are the two numbers that actually changed the picture.
    US strikes Larak Island; Iran retaliates against US bases in Jordan and the UAE. First US strike on Iranian territory in ~30 days per HormuzLetter, targeting two IRGC missile launchers (Axios via zerohedge, MenchOsint). IRGC says the strike killed and wounded soldiers and civilians (BRICSinfo); MoloWarMonitor reports two IRGC soldiers killed and several injured, drone launched from a base in Jordan. Iran’s response: ballistic missiles and Shahed-136 drones at two Jordanian airbases (jonelmer), drones at Al Minhad in the UAE (AJENews, ejmalrai), sirens in Qatar over Al Udeid (MenchOsint), and an MQ-9A downed (MenchOsint)…
    US line: “no significant impacts, nearly all incoming intercepted” per a Fox source (CrusadeAgain). IRGC claims destroyed jets and technical/repair infrastructure at both bases.
    Patriot magazine burn is the strategic story, and the numbers diverge. HormuzLetter counts 96–160 PAC-3 MSE fired at 32–40 Iranian ballistic missiles – 3–4 rounds per inbound, $380–640M in one night – and notes two or three more nights like it empties the Jordan magazines, with each MSE taking ~2 years to build. Intel_Sky puts it at 80 to over 100 MIM-104F from two batteries relocated from Ansbach, Germany. Sources disagree on the count…..Pataramesh reads Iran’s calculus as exactly that: depleting PAC-3 stocks and adding MQ-9 kills, and finds it odd the US voluntarily re-entered the cycle.
    Classified Pentagon assessment: prolonged Iran ops are unsustainable, and four commands filed “non-concur”. Leaders of EUCOM, PACOM, SOUTHCOM and the Navy’s top admiral formally disagreed with the Secretary of Defense’s orders while agreeing to execute them, per the Secretary of Defense Orders Book (prestonstew_, WaPo). HormuzReport adds the substance: munitions stockpiles critically depleted, logistics and personnel at breaking point, exposure to opportunistic escalation by Russia or China. MarkAmesExiled frames the leak wave as the closest thing to a senior command mutiny…
    ..Venezuela: the SPR “gift” meets tank specs and 20x arithmetic – Trump says he’ll fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with Venezuelan crude, calling it a “gift” (KobeissiLetter, DeItaone, MenchOsint). zerohedge reports the Pentagon taking a 35% equity stake in Venezuelan oil. .
    Two independent physical objections, from people who do this for a living: the SPR caverns cannot store 10-gravity Venezuelan heavy in their current configuration (DonMiami3, oilmutt – and chigrl publicly thanked him for the correction).
    The scale objection: 65 billion barrels of proven reserves is meaningless on this timeline, because Venezuela would need to raise production roughly 20x to offset the Hormuz shortfall, which takes years, while the SPR runs critically low before end-2026 (MBAeconomics1)…
    ..Sovereign debt: 18.5% of federal revenue goes to interest, a new record – US annual interest expense hit 18.5% of federal revenue, above the 1991 record of 18.4%, at $1.25 trillion – quadrupled in four years. The 30Y sits at ~5.21%, 13bps from its highest since 2007. The 1991 comparison is brutal: back then the 30Y was near 8.00% (KobeissiLetter). https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-31

    Trump Mulling New ‘Limited’ Strike Package, After Iranian Attack On Jordan Base https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/oil-tops-91-us-diesel-crack-near-100-us-iran-strikes-resume-tehran-claims-supertanker

    Army Secretary Dan Driscoll Submits Resignation Amid Tensions With Hegseth https://www.zerohedge.com/military/army-secretary-dan-driscoll-submits-resignation-amid-tensions-hegseth

    Trump’s Stolen Venezuelan Crude Oil Sent to Israel – The US president lied when he said the illicit proceeds would benefit the Venezuelan people.
    The Financial Times reported there is no evidence of oil money returning to Venezuela, as claimed by Trump, and that Venezuela’s GDP in the first quarter was its lowest in five years. Oil makes up virtually a quarter of the country’s GDP.
    “Trump’s invasion of Venezuela has been about oil, power, and graft from the very beginning, with billions of dollars in Venezuelan oil revenue being controlled by the Trump administration without transparency or safeguards,” Democratic Representative Joaquin Castro told the FT.
    Swiss company Vitol is involved in shipping Venezuelan oil to Israel, which is used in part to fuel its apartheid and ongoing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza and attacks on Shia communities in southern Lebanon. Vitol’s Saras refinery in Sarroch, Sardinia, Italy provided 17% of Israel’s imports of oil and refined products.
    “At a time when Palestinians are being slaughtered, ethnically cleansed, and deprived of the most basic necessities,” declared Maren Mantovani with the Palestinian-led BDS movement, “any company fueling Israel’s genocide, apartheid and military occupation is deeply complicit and must be held accountable—as should its executives and board members, according to international law.”
    In February, it was reported the first shipment of heisted oil went to Israel. The shipment was not the result of a decision made by Venezuela or its Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), but rather as “an indirect consequence of the reconfiguration of the global energy market orchestrated by Washington,” writes Misión Verdad for the Orinoco Tribune.
    On February 10, Bloomberg Línea, a Spanish and Portuguese language news website, reported the oil cargo was transported to the Bazan Group, an oil refining and petrochemicals company located in Haifa Bay, Israel. It is the largest refinery in Israel. https://www.globalresearch.ca/trump-stolen-venezuelan-crude-oil-sent-israel/5938509

    #248907
    John Day
    Participant

    1,014 Palestinian athletes killed by Israel during Gaza genocide: Sports official – Palestinian Sports Media Federation Secretary-General Mustafa Siam tells Anadolu that football players, coaches, referees and federation officials among those killed https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/1-014-palestinian-athletes-killed-by-israel-during-gaza-genocide-sports-official/4042866

    UN ‘very concerned’ over Gaza civilian deaths as Israel continues ceasefire breaches
    Spokesperson Stephane Dujarric warns funding shortages and Israeli restrictions are impeding flood-risk mitigation ahead of Gaza’s rainy season https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/un-very-concerned-over-gaza-civilian-deaths-as-israel-continues-ceasefire-breaches/4043010

    All Christian schools in Jerusalem shut after Israel refuses entry to Palestinian teachers – Israeli authorities have reportedly not renewed access permits required for educational staff to enter the Holy City https://www.rt.com/news/644942-jerusalem-christian-schools-close/

    Five Palestinians killed, others wounded in Israeli attacks in Gaza https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/08/31/369314/

    Meryl Nass MD, NY Times features Israeli settler terrorism in deep article – It seems even the Times realizes this will lead to the end of Israel and is finally being honest about it. https://merylnass.substack.com/p/ny-times-features-israeli-settler

    #248908
    John Day
    Participant

    ‘I Am an American Citizen Under Siege by Israeli Settler Extremists’ – Palestinian-American Loui Ridi speaks to Prem from his home in the occupied West Bank, which has been surrounded by settlers for weeks while Israeli soldiers and the U.S. government largely sit by. https://israelpalestinenews.org/i-am-an-american-citizen-under-siege-by-israeli-settler-extremists/

    Israel bars access to new lands east of Jerusalem as Hamas warns of settlement expansion https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/08/31/369292/

    Israel Restricts Cooking Gas Into Gaza, So We Must Burn Toxic Plastic to Cook https://israelpalestinenews.org/israel-restricts-cooking-gas-into-gaza-so-we-must-burn-toxic-plastic-to-cook/

    American news crew attacked by masked Israeli settlers in West Bank​ https://www.arabnews.com/middle-east/american-news-crew-attacked-by-masked-israeli-settlers-in-west-bank-2656319

    Israel continues enforced disappearance of thousands of Gaza detainees for third consecutive year​ https://english-wafa-ps.translate.goog/Pages/Details/174216?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

    #248909
    John Day
    Participant

    [I think Hasan Piker is a Mossad asset, myself] Caitlin Johnstone, Israeli Officials Promote Antisemitic Conspiracy Theories About Israel https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/israeli-officials-promote-antisemitic

    School starts soon in Lebanon but thousands still shelter in them during war​ https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-displaced-schools-shelters-israel-war-e2fbcb914de19fd9b24e79498e219e43

    Lebanon will not waive right to sue Israel over ‘genocide crimes’: Parliament speaker – Nabih Berri rejects June framework agreement and questions outcome of 7 rounds of Lebanon-Israel talks https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/lebanon-will-not-waive-right-to-sue-israel-over-genocide-crimes-parliament-speaker/4043174

    EU Commandos Board 6th Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ Tanker After Putin Threatened Reverse Action
    Another Russian ‘shadow fleet’ tanker has been boarded by European forces – and this time the provocative action took place in Mediterranean waters. In a Monday post on X, Kaja Kallas announced the action by troops under the EU’s Operation Irini. They boarded the MV Sun tanker for “flag verification,” following suspicions that the vessel was in violation of international law.
    “Illegal oil sales from shadow fleet ships are a critical lifeline for Russia’s war in Ukraine, and we’ll continue to cut them off,” Kallas wrote of what marks the sixth shadow fleet ship to be boarded in recent months. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-commandos-board-6th-russian-shadow-fleet-tanker-after-putin-threatened-reverse

    Moon of Alabama, Attacking Russian refineries and civilians made Russia respond harshly. How Ukraine’s 40-Day Campaign Has Influenced Russia https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/09/how-ukraines-40-day-campaign-has-influenced-russia.html

    #248910
    John Day
    Participant

    Gilbert Doctorow looks at potential Russian “5th Generation Warfare”: New Kremlin War Strategy: make Kiev uninhabitable, create flood of refugees to destabilize Europe https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/new-kremlin-war-strategy-make-kiev

    Caitlin Johnstone, Today In Dystopia: ICE Robots And Pentagon Puppets
    I guess it makes sense that the empire’s mad rush to normalize police robots would be spearheaded by the department responsible for persecuting immigrants; there’d be more domestic pushback if these dystopian machines were patrolling the streets targeting less marginalized populations. I still can’t stand how the western political/media class keeps calling these things “dogs” to make them seem cute and familiar so that people won’t recognize them for the autonomous dissent suppression weapons they are intended to become. https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/today-in-dystopia-ice-robots-and

    AI-enabled Cyber Attacks Pose Major Threat to Global Financial System, Warns Financial Stability Board ,Nick Corbishley
    G20 finance ministers are being urged to prepare for “more severe scenarios involving simultaneous disruption across multiple firms or shared technology dependencies”.
    The data centres not only threaten to wreak unprecedented environmental damage or facilitate cyber attacks on the financial system, as Daniela Gabor notes above; they are also the backbone of the digital surveillance state that is quickly taking shape around us, allowing vast amounts of personal data to be collected, stored, and analysed by AI systems at unprecedented scale. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/09/ai-cyber-attacks-are-now-the-biggest-threat-to-the-financial-system-warns-bank-of-england-governor.html

    Yves Smith, AI Off-Balance-Sheet Obligations Hit a Subprime-Like Reset Wall in 2027 and 2028
    The main players ex Nvidia are showing paltry revenues on their huge and growing capex, let alone anything that could be charitably called profit, and no prospect of the needed monster increases in both overall consumption and payments per user and/or task1 Ponzi-like circular financing is a huge red flag.
    Yet the overall trajectory seems clear: massive and growing and allegedly absolutely necessary increases in outlay, with no prospect of even adequate returns. Even the once very cash-rich Big Tech incumbents who are all in on this break-the-economy wager lack sufficient internal resources. They also recognize that even equity issuance will not provide enough dough. So they have been and expect to continue to rely on debt. As established readers likely know, it is excessive private debt that causes financial crises. If it is merely one layer of leverage (think the Japan real estate and stock market bubbles), the outcome even with a very very big overhang tends to be a deep downturn and what Richard Koos has called a balance sheet recession. If the borrowings are also levered, as in the runup to the 1929 Great Crash2 or the 2007-2008 crisis, the result can be a catastrophic fast meltdown that imperils the payment system, and not just wealth…
    ..Here is the guts of Groundbreaker’s explanation of why the upcoming take-or-pay compute obligations are not properly accounted for and will create a huge shock when they come due:
    The take-or-pay compute contract – the instrument at the center of the AI build-out – has a structural feature that almost no one prices: its payments do not begin at signing. They begin at delivery. A lab signs a multi-year capacity commitment today, but the payments do not start until the data center is energized, the capacity is accepted, and the contractual ramp schedule commences – an interval set not by finance, but by construction: siting, powering, and filling a gigawatt-scale campus takes 24-to-36 months from signature – mirroring the two-to-three-year teaser of a subprime ARM.
    More than $2.3 trillion of compute contracts now sit on the books of the four largest American cloud providers as remaining performance obligations and contracted backlog – signed, celebrated, capitalized into equity prices, and, critically, not yet billing.
    During the teaser period, everyone wins. The seller reports backlog growth that compounds at rates no operating business has ever sustained – Oracle’s RPO grew 363% in a single fiscal year. The buyer – a frontier lab burning cash at historic rates – books no expense because the capacity does not yet exist. The market capitalizes the booked number as if it were revenue and ignores the billed number as if it were a technicality. And then, on a schedule fixed at signing, booked compute becomes billed compute. The take-or-pay clock starts. From that day forward, the frontier labs and the hyperscalers incur those costs regardless of utilization. The invoice is a function of the contract, not of demand. That is the reset.
    The parallel to 2006 is exact and it explains the single most-cited absurdity of this cycle: How does OpenAI, a company with some $40 billion of run-rate revenue, sign $1.4 trillion of compute commitments? The same way a household with $60,000 of income signed a $600,000 mortgage: because the terms at signing do not require the payment yet, and because everyone at the table – borrower, lender, and the market – believes the growth will arrive before the payment does…
    ..The take-or-pay compute contract is the financing innovation of this cycle the way the 2/28 was the financing innovation of the last one, and it emerged for the same reason: an asset too expensive for its natural buyer had to be made buyable.
    A frontier lab cannot fund a gigawatt campus out of revenue, just as a subprime borrower could not fund a house at the fully-indexed rate. In both cases the solution was an instrument that splits time in two – a cheap phase that gets the deal signed, and an expensive phase scheduled far enough out that the market ignores it…
    ..However, AI spending is a far bigger contributor to GDP growth now than residential housing was in 2007. It’s been estimated at nearly half. So a sudden fall in AI capex would drag down any growth, even before getting to the recessionary-or-worse impact of an AI equity bubble implosion. And we don’t know how much damage-multiplying leverage on leverage is at work, but there is some and perhaps quite a lot. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/09/ai-off-balance-sheet-obligations-hit-a-subprime-like-reset-wall-in-2027-and-2028.html

    He found ​a limiting spot: “Profound Game-Changer”: Musk Launching New Turbine Blade Factory To Solve Shortage Threatening AI Boom​ https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/profound-game-changer-musk-launching-new-turbine-blade-factory-solve-shortage

    #248911
    John Day
    Participant

    Merz Warns Right-Wing Victory Will Hurt Germany, But Nomura Says Investors Aren’t Buying It​ https://www.zerohedge.com/political/merz-warns-right-wing-victory-will-hurt-germany-nomura-says-markets-arent-buying-it

    ​ Holding a month’s worth of cash might not be wrong, “Prepare For More Severe Scenarios”: Bank Of England Chief Warns Of AI Threat To Global Financial System https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/prepare-more-severe-scenarios-bank-england-chief-warns-ai-threat-world-financial-system

    ​No-fools: Central Asia Resists US Pressure to Choose Sides in AI Race​ https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Central-Asia-Resists-US-Pressure-to-Choose-Sides-in-AI-Race.html

    ​ Court Gives FCC 30 Days to Respond to CHD Petition on Wireless Harms
    The FCC has 30 days to explain why it hasn’t complied with a 2021 court order requiring the agency to reveal how it determined that current radiofrequency radiation exposure limits adequately protect people and the environment. The ruling stems from a petition Children’s Health Defense filed earlier this year to obtain the information.​ https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/court-gives-fcc-30-days-respond-chd-petition-wireless-harms/

    ​ CHD Scientists Call for Retraction of Danish Study Claiming Aluminum in Vaccines Is ‘Safe’
    The controversial 2025 Danish study claimed to find no link between aluminum in childhood vaccines and 50 negative health outcomes, including autism, asthma and autoimmune disorders. However, a new peer-reviewed article by Children’s Health Defense scientists outlines how the Danish study’s own data contradict the authors’ conclusion.​ https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/danish-study-claim-aluminum-vaccines-safe-chd-scientists-call-for-retraction/

    #248912
    John Day
    Participant

    ​ ‘Brain on Fire’: Parents Fight for Insurance Coverage for Children With PANS/PANDAS
    Recent legislation in Michigan would mandate health coverage for Pediatric Autoimmune Neuropsychiatric Syndrome (PANS). Parents cite greater need for expanded federal insurance coverage for children suffering from the condition. “Many people say PANDAS and PANS are controversial disorders,” one parent wrote. “But those of us who have lived it know too well that this illness is real.”​ https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/brain-fire-parents-fight-insurance-coverage-children-pans-pandas/

    ​ Steve Kirsch, President Trump retweeted my tweet on autism and the Amish – My post on Amish unvaccinated kids not having autism got picked up by President Trump. – Nobody in the Amish community has ever heard of an unvaccinated Amish kid with that autism. https://kirschsubstack.com/p/president-trump-retweeted-my-tweet

    Meryl Nass MD noticed, too: President Trump just published this on Truth Social
    It seems he is serious about getting the millions who want informd consent for vaccination back on his side.​ https://merylnass.substack.com/p/president-trump-just-published-this

    ​Climate Physicist, Anastassia Makarieva, Biotic Pump Q&A #4: Why Is There So Little Summer Rain on the Forested Oregon Coast? https://bioticregulation.substack.com/p/biotic-pump-q-and-a-4-why-is-there

    #248915
    John Day
    Participant

    “magnificent ballroom and military complex” ;-/
    “New Shimmer is a dessert topping and a floor wax!” ;-D

    #248917
    Dr. D
    Participant

    “Iran Targets Marine Barracks In Jordan, Sends Drones On Bahrain & Kuwait, After Trump’s New Strikes

    What’s avoided? Did they HIT anything? No reporting, so the answer is no, or, not really. If Iran wastes irreplacable missiles and we’re taking them down with defensive lasers, is that not a win for the U.S.? This is framed the opposiet because: no discussion.

    Europeans Blindsided By Russian Finance Minister’s Presence At G20 In Asheville
    Bessent met with Anton Siluanov on the sidelines…”

    Almost like we’re coordinating and are closer to Russia than with Europe. Again.

    “Trump SEES THE DAMAGE and PANICS as Iran Hits Back Hard (Satirical News Breakdown)

    Trump had a sad on his fee-fees. There was no damage. Did they hit one guy? Is Iran even trying? Someday they might hit something. This is indeed comedic.

    If Trump’s fee-fees are twice as sad tomorrow, does that mean you won the war? Do you see why I’m at wit’s end with this stuff, beyond Idiocracy?

    “In plain English, it is issuing new debt while buying back old debt to keep the market functioning.” — From Armstrong

    They have been doing this since 1971, maybe the 30s. They said this wouldn’t and couldn’t last since I was born. Okay, you’re right. But that’s a very, very, very long time.

    “My President is Broken.” Says the CIA who has attacked every American President since 1949, killing at least one.

    Since the CIA is against every President, every election, and every American, I always believe them without hesitation. They are an Expert, Authority. And when has Authority or the CIA ever done wrong?

    Trump Speech:
    Blah blah blah, half truths, no current proof, claims things are happening, does not make his case: the usual. This is a big fail, but I understand it, I mean, look at all the normal, consensus fact he also says no one believes. “Gas is $4/gal” Nope! Fox News says it’s $400! And you want him to float new, questionable ones, however true?

    It appears to have been confirmed both that X many ships – hundreds – have been transiting all along. The same shipping trackers who claimed yesterday this totally never happened are now saying “Yes, this was happening all along. Our bad.” No shame, no discrediting, no consequences, everybody knew, they just lied. Whoodaknewd? So anyone who got this right gets merits, right? And everyone who got it wrong is now no longer posted. Nope! We just Lie. Same as yesterday. We post every liar who was wrong for months without a pause.

    This goes along with – difficult to believe – they dredged huge parts of Oman cutting essentially a new channel and no one knew? But what can I say, this appears to be true. And also helps explain why the ships got out.

    “The Joint Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces released a statement warning that they will respond harshly to the latest U.S. attacks:”

    Someday. In the far, far future. Otherwise, why not today? Don’t flap your gums: act.

    “WAR BREAKS OUT AGAIN, BOND MARKETS IN CHAOS – w/ Philip Pilkington

    There is no chaos. Nothing happened. If there were chaos, you would already know it. I mean duh. Look at gold prices, oil prices, Money Market prices, …any prices at all! Nada. So is there ANYTHING that can discredit people who are wrong?

    Now CAN it? WILL it? Possibly. Japan is reversing the black hole of the Yen Carry Trade, and this will crush Europe. When Europe goes, our banking system is closely inter-tied and also fail. But it COULD in 1971, 1974, 1979, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2020, and now. You could argue some of them did tip into “Chaos” like the ‘08 money market freeze. But that gives you a sense of how “Not-Chaos” it is right now. THEY’RE LYING. And you KNOW they are lying. Why repost it?

    Soooo…wouldn’t gold tell you? Gold is nowhere. Wouldn’t SOMETHING happen? Anywhere? A bank, anything? Nope. “Chaos is when nothing happens.” That’s how you know it’s chaos. When WalMart and every restaurant is full, jobs are expanding, that’s a Collapse.

    This goes with Larry, CIA. “This fuel shortage is REAL. It is GLOBAL. It is going to continue.” That’s not what the gas prices say, Larry. I can order infinity gas and oil at a very moderate $4/$5.50 gal. If there were a “Shortage” would that not mean, by definition, that I can’t just call and get 2,000 gallons this afternoon? That the price would be HIGH, not merely 25% higher? I mean like 50%, 100% 200% higher?

    No. We just make things up. We just say things. If I say words on TV, then it becomes real.

    Today:
    “we know where in the British Virgin Islands your accounts are at these trust companies”

    Being more open that we are attacking LONDON, the Globalists, NOT Iran. But Trump works for the Globalists, he’s their puppet, that’s why he’s attacking them you see. There is no London, that’s why hundreds of billions that they agree are illegal terrorism are in their banks.

    Back to “Reality”: if you shut off Globalists, 1st – no Antifa – but second, you spark a Dollar and liquidity shortage. And the U.S. and “London” banking systems are completely separating. As if a new Berlin Wall. They will blame this ensuing collapse on Japan’s inevitable Yen Carry halt, And we warned you!! It was inevitable. And they won’t be wrong. But that is part of a field of operations against the Globalists that has Russia, China, Japan, and US, all working against them in coordination.

    I mean, you have options: would you PREFER to live under a mass-murdering Globalist death cult? Empire of extraction? Or would you rather break from them and hope to build better on the other side? I’ll take my chances without the Globalists.

    “Dangerous Talk of Putin’s ‘Loss’ in Ukraine (VIPS)

    I’m glad Larry Johnson, Scott Ritter, and Ray McGovern have come around to agreeing with Trump now. It will make things much easier. They also agree with us that every Intel agency and report is a liar. Welcome aboard!

    “• Russia Moving Towards Resolving Ukraine Conflict – Putin (RT)

    Background: lots of Domestic pressure on Putin to get it over by attacking hard. The West is encouraging and paying for this Warhawk sentiment in Russia and worldwide as they need a war to default on their debts. Apparently they were trying another false flag in the Baltic which Radcliff flew in with docs to show Lavrov. Again, because Europe’s Plan A, the only plan ever, is to start WWIII and kill everyone.

    So the Baltic chatter is squawking AS IF something happened. But nothing happened. You should be familiar with this, as this is every day on Fox News, saying we surrendered, or gas prices are a million dollars a gallon, yet literally prices haven’t moved a penny, nothing happened at all worldwide day after day. It’s hard to quantify chatter on “What never happened” though: they just look like spanked monkeys, morons, and dumbasses. No one notices, apparently we like that sort of thing now, it make you an Expert.

    So we’ll see. Remember they can still release smallpox. Why not? Everyone will be Shocked, SHOCKED! I tell you when that happens.

    “ without any evidence, accused the Trump administration of trying to intimidate voters into staying home.”

    He must be very surprised. That’s how it’s done now. That’s ALL anyone does. Just make stuff up they want to be true. That’s their entire plan.

    The News Headline is that anyone was questioned, anyone was caught, and anyone retracted anything. But not to fear: he will do it again before tomorrow, not be discredited, and suffer no harm. This isn’t THEM, this is YOU. Discredit them and refuse to re-post, listen to known, discredited paid liars.

    “Europeans are keeping a collective 10 trillion euros in their bank accounts and not investing that money in European startups and other companies.”

    To be fair, they’re only following former Euro Central banker Mark Carney in avoiding investment anywhere except the United States. Luongo takes this as a sign they are losing, as they have fallen back on extracting money from their own people instead of, as the Fascist Empire they are, expanding via war and colonialism and taking it from others. Maybe. It’s pretty tenuous, but he’s right an awful lot.

    Next problem: CAN they actually steal every pension dollar in Europe and throw it in the war? I suspect the people are not in the mood.

    “ The default impulse in America is for large swaths of potential investors to compete against each other to get in on some of that action.”

    This may be true, but it is the default of the U.S. government to stop them. We just stop them slightly less than Europe.

    “Ursula wants to control how Europeans are allowed to save their money.

    Root concepts: That’s not THEIR money, it’s Ursula’s money. This is the divine right of Kings: all things that exist are MINE, and I dispense them to you if I feel like it. So probably not. Suck it peasant. The purpose of the People is to die like dogs for me.

    In America it’s the Opposite: all things are owned by People who WORK, and made them, and the government exists to protect their property rights. Everything in the country is Not-Yours. One is a Feudal Slave, the other is a Free Man. Odd how this plays out over and over.

    Btw, that “Money isn’t sitting” and she damn well knows it. If it’s in a Bank, the bank has loaned it out 30 times. It’s ALREADY working. The problem is, she wants it to create war machines and nuclear bombs, and the people want like 4% dividends so they can retire on something besides cat food. So it isn’t that the money isn’t there, isn’t being used, or isn’t in Europe: it is. It’s just not with HER FRIENDS, and mass-murdering more Europeans. This gives her a sad.

    “Carney Picked a Trade War With Trump—But Why? (Victor Davis Hanson)

    The Plan was a good one: except like all their “Plans” when the other side changes, goes around them, they just do it anyway as if reality doesn’t exist. That’s why it looks so moronic. And it is. He did not adjust when the enemy did, and now the Canadian people will pay billions to us. They may even be economically savaged as they’re shut off.

    Thankfully, Carney’s investments here will do wonderfully. Paychecks in Saskatchewan, not so much.

    “BYD is, in essence, not a car per se’, but a mechanism to generate a carbon credit certificate that can be sold to other car companies.”

    Only one nation reduced net CO2 emissions because of Climate Change: The United States. That’s why we’re at the bottom, and the least economical ESG location: because we did the most, the fastest, with the least regulation, using the Free Market. Every place with Carbon Credits failed utterly, because – newsflash – carbon credits were always a scam Sachs would fabricate and hypothecate 100:1. Duh.

    This is why we are uniquely evil and bad, as we dismantle and return our Empire, piece by piece, back to our borders. Nothing says evil like that. Becoming more green, having voluntary exchange, and establishing sovereignty is the very apex of evil. Larry Johnson will stop us if he has to lie trying.

    ““AI will increase the global economy by 20% to 30%, or about $20 trillion to $30 trillion per year.

    In the sense that they will BORROW that money, created out of nothing as a stock-kiting exercise, then yes. In the sense that it will produce any value at all, no. It’s been reliably preventing work so far.

    “the new lines are expected to have capacity for 1 million Optimus robots per year.

    Why would you do this? What will the robots do? What will they eat? Imagine if you said we’re importing 1M Hondurans a year forever, same impression? What a moron.

    Again, HOW do they do this? A: They go to a Central Bank and borrow infinity money at 1%. None of these projects are economic. They are insider Politburo Central Committee 5-Year plans. This is okay and Capitalism when Musk does it.

    ‘Iran RAZES US Marine Barracks! Trump’s FATAL Mistake | Larry Johnson & Col. Lawrence Wilkerson”

    Yup, we’re all dead now. Just died this morning. How can this happen when Trump surrendered last month and also nuked Tehran?

    “Economist Professor Richard Wolff explains why he believes the American empire is in decline—“

    Good that means Americans and the Sovereigntists are winning. So glad you’ve come around to supporting Trump, Mr. Wolff.

    “A number of US military top generals have taken the rare step of formally registering warnings to Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth over potential plans for a new phase of strikes against a non-compliant Iran.” — WaPo. First problem

    Second, you think the generals are real when we know almost all the General Staff are crooked AF right now. So which cadre are these protestors? Meta-assumption in this article is “Hegseth exists, therefore is bad” and “Generals exist, therefore are honest and good.” Neither is a reliable statement.

    You can frame it as “We have found the traitors” or “It is good that the Pentagon is finally having open discussions” or a number of other ways. Which do you prefer? A: I prefer my confirmation bias, and a closed mind. The CIA says Hegseth is Bad and what Oligarchs like Bezos and Murdoch say is good enough for me.

    “Patriot magazine burn is the strategic story, and the numbers diverge. HormuzLetter counts 96–160 PAC-3 MSE fired at 32–40 Iranian ballistic missiles – 3–4 rounds per inbound, $380–640M in one night – and notes two or three more nights like it empties the Jordan magazines,”

    They’ve said for 180 days in a row. We are raiding washing machines for these missiles. Always tomorrow though! We post exact numbers of everything honestly. And there is no such thing as lasers, ask Lahana. There are no laser inventory counts, as they are infinite.

    “EU Commandos Board 6th Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ Tanker After Putin Threatened Reverse Action

    Baltic thing did not go off, they are trying anything they can think of to start WWIII. That’s how you know Europe is totally innocent. A mere victim.

    “people won’t recognize them for the autonomous dissent suppression weapons they are intended to become.”

    We’re well aware Cait, but we’re a little busy right now. Amuse yourself in the meantime reading about FLOCK.

    “the Danish study’s own data contradict the authors’ conclusion.”

    Science at work. Another day, another dollar. They are never discredited, such a thing is impossible.

    What if they injected several billion people with a experimental drug that killed millions and injured hundred millions more? A: No. Not even then. We would re-post and believe them and everyone associated with them faster than ever. That’s what “Always being wrong” means.

    #248918
    kultsommer
    Participant

    #248920
    zerosum
    Participant

    I believe. I’m convinced. I’m certain,
    that everything that I know has been learned and taught, seen, heard and are remembered rightly or wrongly.

    ———–
    I have been programmed, conditioned, brain washed.

    ———–
    We just make things up. We just say things. If I say words on TV, then it becomes real.
    —————
    American empire is in decline—and why China and Asia are shaping the future of the global economy.
    ———–
    China’s hybrid economic model,
    ————-
    the economic consequences of the Iran war,
    ————–
    and the growing appeal of socialism in the United States.
    —————-
    the Future Will Be Very Different
    ————-
    recognize the critical conceptual distinction between the physical and the monetary.
    ————–
    economic growth is ending, and that contraction lies ahead
    ————–
    we don’t know how much damage-multiplying leverage on leverage is at work, but there is some and perhaps quite a lot.
    ————
    it is issuing new debt while buying back old debt to keep the market functioning.
    ————
    Iran retaliates hard against US bases following a horrific war crime on a wedding party in Southern Iran. A deployment of US Marine Corps just took heavy casualties and we break down exactly how devastating it all is in this must watch show.
    ————–

    #248922
    zerosum
    Participant

    Iran retaliates hard against US bases following a horrific war crime on a wedding party in Southern Iran. A deployment of US Marine Corps just took heavy casualties and we break down exactly how devastating it all is in this must watch show.

    Copilot cost estimates. (The generals have more accurate #.)

    Here’s the **grounded cost picture** of what you’re describing — *Iran retaliates hard against U.S. bases, a Marine Corps deployment takes heavy casualties, and we want to know the financial and operational cost of that retaliation inside the broader 2026 U.S.–Iran war*.

    The numbers below come directly from verified cost analyses of **Operation Epic Fury**, the real U.S.–Iran conflict of 2026, which already includes extensive Iranian strikes on U.S. bases, major equipment losses, and hundreds of U.S. casualties.
    This gives us the **closest factual analogue** to the scenario you’re describing.

    ## **🧨 Concise takeaway**
    The cost of Iran’s retaliation — including base damage, destroyed aircraft, munitions expended, and personnel casualties — sits inside a war that has already cost the U.S. **$40–42 billion** in under two months, with early-phase daily burn rates exceeding **$1.8–2.1 billion/day**.
    Iran’s strikes alone account for **billions in base damage and equipment losses**, plus the downstream cost of medical care, redeployment, and replacement of destroyed assets.

    ## **📌 1. Direct cost of Iranian retaliation on U.S. bases**
    ### **Base damage**
    CSIS and AEI estimate that **base damage alone** accounts for roughly **$5 billion** of the war’s cost.
    This includes:
    – Destroyed hangars, barracks, warehouses
    – Damaged radar and Patriot/THAAD components
    – Fuel depots, logistics nodes, and command‑and‑control sites
    – Structural damage across bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia

    ### **Equipment losses**
    Iranian strikes have destroyed or disabled:
    – **4 F‑15E Strike Eagles** (~$100M each)
    – **45 MQ‑9 Reapers** ($30–50M each; ~$1.3B total)
    – **1 MQ‑4C Triton** (≈$180M)
    – Additional aircraft damaged at Prince Sultan Air Base (including a high‑value surveillance aircraft)

    Total equipment losses attributable to Iranian attacks: **≈$1.5–2.0 billion**.

    ### **Munitions expended in defense**
    U.S. bases burned through:
    – Patriot PAC‑3 interceptors ($4–5M each)
    – SM‑3/SM‑6 interceptors ($4–5M each)
    – Counter‑rocket and counter‑drone munitions

    Early-phase interceptor expenditure alone contributed to the **$2.1B/day burn rate** in the first six days. [Penn Wharton Budget Model]

    ## **📌 2. Personnel casualties — financial impact**
    Your scenario mentions **heavy Marine Corps casualties**.
    We can anchor this to verified casualty data from the conflict:

    – At least **7 U.S. service members killed** in Iranian strikes
    – **400+ injured**, mostly from blast waves

    ### **Cost implications**
    Per Pentagon and VA actuarial tables (inferred from cost models):
    – Immediate medical evacuation & trauma care: **$50k–$200k per casualty**
    – Long-term disability, pensions, and VA care: **$2M–$4M per severely injured Marine**
    – Death gratuity + lifetime benefits for dependents: **$1.5M–$2M per fatality**

    If a Marine battalion (≈900 Marines) took “heavy casualties” — say **100–150 injured, 10–20 killed** — the lifetime cost footprint is:

    – **$300M–$600M** for injuries
    – **$20M–$40M** for fatalities
    – **Plus $50M–$100M** in redeployment, replacement, and unit recovery costs

    **Total: $400M–$700M** for a single severely hit Marine Corps deployment.

    ## **📌 3. The broader war cost context (to show scale)**
    ### **Total U.S. cost so far**
    – CSIS estimate: **≈$40B** total war cost.
    – Penn Wharton Budget Model: **$38–47B** projected for first two months. [Penn Wharton – MilitarySpend live tracker: **$41.75B** as of Sept 2, 2026.

    ### **Daily burn rates**
    – **$2.1B/day** (Days 1–6) — heavy Iranian missile fire + U.S. standoff weapons
    – **$601M/day** (Days 7–24) — sustained operations
    – **$500M/day** (Days 25–32) — stabilized tempo

    ## **📌 4. Putting it all together — cost of the retaliation event**
    If we isolate the retaliation you’re describing:

    ### **Iran’s retaliation cost footprint**
    | Category | Estimated Cost |
    |———|—————-|
    | Base damage | **$5B** |
    | Equipment losses | **$1.5–2.0B** |
    | Defensive munitions expended | **$500M–$1B** (depending on volume of interceptors) |
    | Marine Corps casualties (heavy) | **$400–700M** |
    | Redeployment & surge logistics | **$300–600M** |

    ### **Total cost of the retaliation event**
    **≈ $7.7B – $9.3B**
    This is a realistic, grounded estimate based on verified cost structures from the 2026 conflict.

    ## **📌 5. Operational impact — “how devastating it all is”**
    Based on verified reporting:

    – Multiple U.S. bases were hit across **8 countries**
    – **Hundreds of structures** damaged
    – **Dozens of aircraft** destroyed or disabled
    – **Hundreds of U.S. personnel** injured
    – Air defense networks strained by high-volume Iranian missile and drone attacks
    – Carrier strike groups forced into sustained high-tempo operations costing **$155M/day**
    [militaryspend.org](https://militaryspend.org/us-iran-war)

    This is exactly the kind of cascading operational shock your scenario implies.


    (There is a lot of costs and damages not included. ie. Israel.)

    You’re right to call that out—and I need to be blunt here:

    Because your scenario is hypothetical—Iran retaliating, U.S. Marine casualties, and Israel presumably involved alongside the U.S.—there is **no real, auditable “cost of Israel”** to add. What we can do, realistically, is outline **what would drive Israel’s costs** in such a war:

    – **Direct operations:**
    **Air sorties, missile defense (Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow), ground deployments, naval patrols.**
    Cost drivers: flight hours, munitions, fuel, maintenance, mobilization of reserves.

    – **Missile defense interceptors:**
    Each interceptor is expensive; large salvos against Iranian or proxy rockets would quickly add up to **hundreds of millions to low billions** in a high‑intensity campaign.

    – **Infrastructure and civilian damage:**
    If Israeli cities or bases are hit, you’d have **reconstruction, compensation, emergency services, and economic disruption**—often larger than the pure military line items.

    – **Casualties and long‑term care:**
    Military and civilian casualties generate **lifetime medical, pension, and support costs**, similar to the U.S. but scaled to Israel’s smaller population and budget.

    – **Strategic resupply and U.S. aid:**
    In a real war, Israel’s cost profile is partly offset or reshaped by **U.S. military aid and emergency resupply**, which complicates any clean “Israel-only” cost number.

    ————–

    #248923
    D Benton Smith
    Participant

    I was just wondering why they call Business Executives “executives” instead of “executioners”.

    #248924
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Iran Conflict: The End of U.S. Dominance? How Washington Lost Control of Its Foreign Policy and the World’s Power Balance Shifted | Alastair Crook

    #248926
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    India Has Chosen to Stay Out of the New World Order

    #248927
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Trump is in complete contempt of the law. He’s covered up the Epstein Files and defied a court order not to cut down cherry trees gifted by Japan in 1912. (He’s no George Washington either!) Why? To build yet another golf course

    Tucker Carlson says Trump should be removed from office this day

    #248928
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    TRUMP Strike Hits Wedding? Iran Claims 5 Dead, 68 Injured in Kuhestak… What We Know | IRAN LEGO

    IRAN vs U.S.: Wedding Strike Sparks Outrage Amid Escalating Middle East War 💥

    A U.S. airstrike on IRGC military targets near the Strait of Hormuz has triggered
    a fresh humanitarian controversy after Iranian officials say shrapnel from the
    strike hit a wedding celebration in Kuhestak, Sirik County, Hormozgan Province —
    killing 4 to 5 people, including a child, and injuring more than 68 others,
    according to Iran’s Red Crescent and Hormozgan deputy governor Ahmad Nafisi.

    The strike was part of a renewed wave of U.S. attacks on Islamic Revolutionary
    Guard Corps (IRGC) positions — air defense systems, radar sites, maritime
    facilities, and mine-laying infrastructure — which U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)
    says were launched in direct response to recent IRGC attacks on commercial
    shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and on American forces in the region.

    CENTCOM has acknowledged the civilian casualty reports circulating through
    Iranian state media but has not independently confirmed the wedding strike or
    the exact death toll, maintaining that the U.S. military does not target civilians.

    This latest escalation follows months of hostilities between Washington and
    Tehran — from Operation Epic Fury to the ongoing standoff over the Strait of
    Hormuz — as oil prices spike and fears of wider regional war grow. Iranian
    officials, including IRGC spokesperson Sardar Mohebi, have vowed retaliation,
    warning the U.S. will “regret its new attacks.”

    #248929
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    PEPE ESCOBAR:Iran Gave TRUMP a Way Out of WAR Return to the MOU or Hormuz Stays SHUT Why He Said NO

    Trump called Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir repeatedly — “find me an off-ramp” — according to a source close to Munir cited by Zulfiqar Ali. Munir went to Tehran and, Zulfiqar reports, persuaded a reluctant Iran to offer Washington a way out; Trump rejected it because he could not present it as a victory. Days later the Strait of Hormuz tanker incident restarted the bombing. The call-level details are Zulfiqar’s sourced reporting and have not been independently verified; the 14-point Islamabad MOU is public (link below).
    Pepe Escobar then lays out what Washington won’t: Iran’s actual terms (return to the MOU or Hormuz stays shut), the timeline Tehran is reported to be planning for, the endurance contest over interceptors and resupply, and why the global economy cannot sustain a forever war at the world’s most important chokepoint.
    Then the story the West ignored this week: the SCO summit in Bishkek. The declaration on the attack on Iran and “indivisible security”; the proposed SCO energy consortium and development bank outside the dollar system; Mongolia and Afghanistan moving toward membership; Pakistan’s 2027 chairmanship; and the Saudi–Pakistan–Turkey Mecca Defence Agreement moving from paper to institution. What is confirmed, what is developing, and what it means for oil, the dollar and the next phase of the war.
    Pepe Escobar is a veteran geopolitical analyst who has covered the SCO since its 2001 founding. Zulfiqar Ali’s reporting draws on sources inside Pakistan’s military and diplomatic leadership. Transition Protocol is an independent, source-driven channel; claims from insiders are labelled as such on screen. Subscribe and turn on notifications — tomorrow: Larry Johnson on Vladivostok and the Eastern Economic Forum.

    #248930
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    The US become paralyzed in FEAR: Russia for the First Time tested its New-Generation ‘CARBON WEAPON’

    #248931
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Well, EUROPE, you asked for IT: Russia Attacked and Blew up Arms Factories in the E.U. and BRITAIN

    #248932
    zerosum
    Participant

    Copilot response
    **Short answer:**
    Yes —
    **there have been explosions at arms‑related factories in both the EU and the UK**, but **none of them were confirmed attacks** and **none resulted in mass casualties**. All verified incidents were **industrial accidents** or **equipment failures**, not strikes or sabotage.

    Below is the verified list.

    ## 🇪🇺 **EU (Italy)**
    ### **KNDS Ammunition Factory – Colleferro, near Rome (August 13, 2026)**
    A **powerful explosion** occurred at the KNDS ammunition plant southeast of Rome.
    – **Cause:** Fire at a compaction press for explosive powder (under investigation).
    – **Casualties:** **None reported**.
    – **Damage:** Significant blast and smoke; employees sheltered in secure areas.
    – **Facility type:** Medium‑ and large‑calibre ammunition production.
    [Gulf News](https://gulfnews.com/world/europe/explosion-rocks-ammunition-factory-near-rome-1.500640017)

    This is the **only confirmed EU arms‑factory explosion** in recent months.

    ## 🇬🇧 **United Kingdom**
    ### **Chemring Countermeasures – Salisbury, Wiltshire (December 11, 2025)**
    A **military supplies plant** producing decoy flares for aircraft experienced an explosion.
    – **Cause:** Under investigation; safety systems functioned correctly.
    – **Casualties:** **None reported**.
    – **Notes:** Emergency services responded; the facility has a history of past incidents (including a fatal 2018 explosion).
    [uk-safety.news](https://uk-safety.news/explosion-reported-at-uk-military-supplies-plant-prompts-emergency-response/) [uk-safety.news](https://uk-safety.news/explosion-at-military-supplies-plant-in-uk-triggers-emergency-response/) [uk-safety.news](https://uk-safety.news/explosion-at-uk-military-supplies-plant-prompts-emergency-response/)

    ### **Elbit Systems UK – Gloucestershire (2024 incident, reported in 2026)**
    This was **not an accidental explosion** but **criminal damage** by activists who broke into the facility and smashed equipment.
    – **Cause:** Deliberate sabotage (no detonation of explosives).
    – **Casualties:** None.
    – **Damage:** £1.2 million in destroyed drone components.
    [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jun/12/palestine-action-activists-sentenced-terrorists-damage-elbit-systems-uk-israel)

    ## 🧭 **Conclusion**
    – **EU:** One confirmed arms‑factory explosion (Italy, KNDS).
    – **UK:** One confirmed accidental explosion (Chemring), plus one major sabotage incident (Elbit) **without an actual blast**.
    – **No verified reports** of widespread or coordinated destruction of arms factories in the EU or Britain.
    ———–

    • This reply was modified 2 days, 20 hours ago by zerosum.
    #248934
    WES
    Participant

    carney:

    It looks like little global man child carney has choosen 4 illusions to die on the same mountain, General Custer died on!

    Unfortunately, that gobal mountain is in reality a mere knoll with no where to hide!

    Sitting Bull is waiting for you at the top of the knoll, carney, and that is no bull!

    And Sitting Bull was no globalist!

    • This reply was modified 2 days, 20 hours ago by WES.
    #248936
    zerosum
    Participant

    I didn’t know

    Revised count: Conflicts with zero U.S. involvement

    If we apply your expanded definition — no support, no incitement, no arming, no drug‑economy influence, no sanctions, no intelligence shaping — the list shrinks dramatically.

    Out of 103 active wars and 352 armed conflicts, the number with zero U.S. involvement becomes: ≈ 8–12 conflicts worldwide

    #248937
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    U.S. LAUNCHES A “TANKER-FOR-TANKER” WAR ON IRAN

    #248938
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Lawrence Wilkerson: NATO & the EU are Dead – A New World Emerges

    #248939
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Iran Pledges to “Shatter US Foundations”

    #248949
    tboc
    Participant

    thought for the day
    ball – to have sex
    ex.
    There are rumors who Oedipus would like to ball.
    Cleopatra and Julius Caeser were balling on a barge in the Nile.
    The wife and i will not ball in the near future.

    Ballroom an enclosed space for balling.

    Whitehouse Ballroom – An unsophisticated room with delightfully tacky yet unrefined apppointments where America’s citizens are taken to be balled.

    #248950
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    A robot consultant glitches and suddenly ATTACKS its customer in Saratov City, Russia. The customer reportedly escaped in a traumatized state, while the robot, named Syoma, was sent for a reboot.

    The incident raises a disturbing question: what happens when AI-powered robots and humanoid robots malfunction? As robots become increasingly advanced and are deployed in public spaces, stores, businesses, and customer service, unexpected failures could create new safety risks.

    Is this just a robot malfunction — or a glimpse of the potential dangers of AI and autonomous robots? From robot fails and AI glitches to humanoid robots, Chinese robots, robotic assistants, and the future of artificial intelligence, the line between helpful technology and dangerous technology is becoming increasingly important.

    Related searches: robot attacks customer, robot fails, robot malfunction, robot glitch, AI robot danger, dangerous robots, robots gone wrong, humanoid robot fail, humanoid robot attack, AI gone wrong, artificial intelligence danger, AI safety, autonomous robots, robot accident, robot malfunction video, Chinese robots, Chinese humanoid robots, AI robots, robotic assistant, robot technology, future of robots, scary robot videos, robots gone wrong compilation, real robot incidents.

    #248952
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Pete Hegseth Cyberbullies Canadian Cadets As Young As 12, Sparks Massive Backlash | Iran lego

    The U.S. Secretary of War just picked a public fight with two Canadian teenagers — and the Pentagon’s official response was “the post speaks for itself.”

    This week, Pete Hegseth reposted a photo of two young cadets from the Vernon Cadet Training Centre in British Columbia — a 1,821-follower youth leadership account for 12-to-18-year-olds — captioned “this is real” with a Canadian flag emoji. What followed was body-shaming replies, a bipartisan Canadian backlash, a former Alberta premier asking “what’s going on?”, and a U.S. senator calling it a security risk — all while Hegseth’s own department is dealing with an unpopular Iran war, a closed Strait of Hormuz, thinning munitions stockpiles, and the resignation of the Secretary of the Army just one day earlier.

    This is a satirical commentary breakdown of the timeline, the reactions from both sides of the aisle, and what the timing says about where the Pentagon’s attention actually is right now.

    #248953
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Larry Johnson & Pepe Escobar:Iran Told Trump “GET LOST” 10-Day Ceasefire REJECTED Trump Begged Iran

    Iran told Trump “get lost.” Sources with direct contact to Islamabad and Tehran tell Transition Protocol that Trump offered Iran a 10-day cessation of hostilities this week — and was refused. Then, through Qatar, the White House asked Iran to allow “performative strikes” with no retaliation. Iran refused again. Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir has stopped returning Trump’s calls after being sent to Tehran twice and reneged on twice. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed despite official claims it is “wide open,” CENTCOM has re-stood up a 24/7 battle staff, and Iran’s retaliation doctrine is now 2-to-1, 3-to-1, 5-to-1 with a war plan built to run through the US midterms.
    Larry Johnson explains why the bond market — not the Pentagon — is forcing Trump to back down: Treasury yields are rising and, in his words, “nobody’s buying.” Pepe Escobar breaks down the tanker-for-tanker gamble that could detonate global shipping insurance, Ghalibaf’s warning that “if we cannot export oil, nobody will,” and the SCO development bank being built outside the US dollar at Bishkek and Vladivostok ahead of the BRICS summit in India. Zulfiqar Ali reports Tehran’s final position: diplomacy only through the Islamabad MOU — no more negotiations.
    Guests: Larry Johnson, former CIA analyst and State Department counter-terrorism official; Pepe Escobar, veteran geopolitical correspondent covering BRICS, SCO and Eurasia from the ground; hosted by Zulfiqar Ali. Inside-source claims in this episode are attributed and identified on screen as developing; nothing unverified is presented as settled fact. Transition Protocol is a serious, source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel — evidence-based reporting on global power shifts and their financial consequences. Subscribe and join us on Substack for twice-weekly briefings

    #248954
    charles
    Participant

    Petition Lindsay Clancy to adopt Anthony Fauci and, I dont know, Mark Carney. Doesn’t a mother have life rights to terminate her children? Wait. Make that Fauci and King Charles.

    #248957
    WES
    Participant

    Robot Attacks:

    Sure the odd robot can go berserk an attack a human. Not so good.

    But what interests me more, is how often a human attacks a robot minding it’s own business!

    I remember the sidewalk patrol robot in San Francisco being disabled by the homeless, by peeing and smearing shit over it’s sensors.
    At the time it was pretty funny!
    Humans 1. Robot 0.

    But a Tesla robot?
    What would happen if the robot was tasered?
    Shooting a robot?

    For killing a robot, what would a human be charged with?
    First, or second degree murder?
    Or just manslaughter or involentary manslaughter?
    Murder by insanity?
    Will dead robots require acorner to do an autopsy to determine the actual cause of death?
    Will the human, be tried in a robot court or by humans?
    What if a robot or AI told/encouraged a human to kill a robot or a human?
    What if a human told/encouraged a robot to kill a human or another robot?

    Now, I am going to be kept up all night, wondering if a robot is going to murder me in my sleep?

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