ted
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What if you are wrong? And the governments of the world allow the U.S to keep doing what it is doing…..Inflation rather than deflation…they will do everything thing they can to inflate the economy and that is what they have been doing and it is what path they will take in the future. I am not saying it is fair or just but this is how our society has been for the last 300 years; keeping the status quo where it is at any and all costs. They are not going to wring their hands and give up they are going to manipulate the system to keep it more of the same….and we will see them do things we never thought they had the ability or power to do….we already have seen some of that. Ted
The FED has to keep the stock market up. People are starting to believe there is a recovery. The US is still the currency of last resort and they have been able to prop up this market for a very long time and probably will for a lot longer. I have been a long time reader of this website and many other websites such as the oil drum and our finite world…and I am starting to wonder if things might have been exaggerated by when the crash is going to happen and by how much..If you can fool the people into thinking there is a recovery maybe there will be….It is dangerous to get caught in group think….so I am trying to keep an open mind….maybe just maybe the FED has so many tools and ways of manipulating currency that they can get us out of this mess..Now don’t get me wrong something this big and possibly very deadly that we are facing is not to be taken lightly but then again one must live their lives today….Ted
Commie!?????? Please refrain from the name calling!!!!! It degrades you and this site, Nicole and encourages trolling! Ted
What I can’t understand is all the deflationary talk. It seems like we have a government that is going to do all it can to stay in power and if that means giving people tons of money and jobs then they will do that ……Thus creating inflation…not deflation….I guess I can see deflation in the short run but they realize they are going to have to do something to “goose” the economy….that is why they won’t let go of QE….flood money into the masses somehow….and there are ways to do that other than QE…Ted
When will the U.S be forced to quit QE? It seems like as currency of last resort that it has a long way to go. Maybe 2 or 3 more years. Ted
Well….my point is that the “damage is done” at this point. We need a crash to happen before we can rebuild. The political infrastructure will not allow any solutions like you talk of, and even if they are implemented do you think after all that has been done they will really make much of a difference? It will get swallowed up in the abyss. You contradict yourself too much….peak oil is going to rear its ugly head very soon…..Ted
Thank you Professor, for your comment. I always cringe when I hear people throw up these “Easy Solution, Ideas” Kinda of like trying to put out a volcano with water cannons. If the problem is as big and extensive as we think it is then there is no easy solution; maybe it makes people feel better to offer solutions though…Ted
What I am trying to say is that any talk of collapse of the current system is met with labeling that person as a “doomer” “crackpot” etc… So to give credibility—–for lack of a better word—- he throws in this comment “Nicole is relatively optimistic about Japan, where she feels the worst is over.” It makes no sense! The U.S is going to see massive defaults and depression along with Europe but for Japan no problem “the worst is over”. It reminds me of comments that I heard in 07 that China was going to decouple from the rest of the world economically. And my favorite green shoots! If collapse in the larger countries happens it will be systemic and the worst won’t be over for Japan or anyone else for that matter. To be honest I am not sure who is the author of the above comment but I believe it is putting words into someone elses’ mouth. I see Japan as having one of the longest hardest roads ahead! But I would like to be proven wrong. Thanks Ted
I guess this is a Jim Puplava comment but it does me take pause when people say things like this it does discredit everything else. “Nicole is currently lecturing in the US, and believes that not only is Europe the leading edge of a developing depression, but other bubbles are in the process of bursting around the globe. Nicole is relatively optimistic about Japan, where she feels the worst is over. In the U.S., Nicole sees the many pension promises as totally unsustainable, and believes the next U.S. ” ………Maybe this is pandering to the mainstream. Who would have thought that questioning the economic system after 2008 would have to sugar coat everything so much so that people can absorb the message!?
Wait a second!! Did I just read that right. That Nicole believes that the worst is over in Japan!! How can that be. If you are talking apocalyptic depression here in the U.S. it will have grave implications for the whole world. Not to mention their energy conundrum. Please revisit that comment and see if that is what she really meant. That one statement totally seems to contradict everything she has said.
If QE is mostly the buying of Mortgage Backed Securities; what happens when they have bought all of these. Can they just say that they are buying them, when in fact they aren’t. Also when this is done- ie there are no more to buy- what do they do next? At some point isn’t the treasury going to have to step in and print money? I know Nicole has always preached deflation but it is hard to see that in the U.S with its currency of last resort. By the way does Geitner still work in Washington? I know he is just a figure head but what the hell is he doing these days?
Well thanks for clarifying that Variable. I think you are spot on with that assessment. I have a lot of University friends and they feel so “protected” from any fall out especially the ones who are tenured and retired. They think they are millionaires! I try to explain to them that they are just as vulnerable by they argue that people will always go to the university and with expanding populations there will be no problem there. I am just a Malthusian chicken little to them!
Also I am going to see former treasury secretary Snow speak tonight…have you got any zingers I can ask him?
I still don’t understand how you think that some places will be an island and watching all this “collapse” unfold? This seems to be a real problem because that is how a lot of people face this problem…Thinking that they are safe and the “other” people will face problems. If we collapse here in the U.S there is no telling what type of government will take over and how someones’ wealth will or will not be affected. People think that they will still get their pensions while their neighbors starve! After the Nazis marched into France did people think well at least I will still have my pension??!!! You can’t have orderly collapse…..
Nice article except for one statement….you say that this only some of the Pensions are in trouble and some are just fine? How can that be we are talking about an intrinsic system? When the ship sinks are some people going to stay dry some how….? You can’t just say we are going to have a controlled orderly collapse. Maybe I am misinterpreting former comments about collapse but on the degree that you and stonleigh have mentioned it does not sound like there will be any “safe place”. I am sorry if I am being rude hear but I take exception to this comment because here and other sites I often hear people say “well I feel sorry for those other poor people but I will be fine because I have my pension coming in” “All the young people are screwed” etc…eventually all pensions will fail.
Backwards evolution……did you read the article? It is already too late…the train has left the station…the question is not if the crash will occur it is when. But I don’t subscribe to the theory that the “government is out to get us all” ….I think you give them too much credit….they are not the brightest of the brightest out there, otherwise they would not want to be the captain of a sinking ship…people believe what they want to believe and they don’t want to hear that there is a huge problem coming….
I don’t think Ben is doing this on purpose…I think he really does believe he is helping the system…his son has a huge college debt to repay and he does have family. To think all his actions a of a dubious nature gives him more credit and dis credit for that matter. If he really knew what he was doing I think he would have stopped a long time ago…but then again what choice did he have..? He thought he was saving the system not realizing that the system is morphing into something else..
I too thought the crash would be sooner somewhere in 2012 but I was wrong as well…still I am amazed if we will get through 13′ without any crash…Natural gas is climbing up oil is climbing up both lead to inflation…Also why is the dollar not any stronger against other currencies like the Euro, if it is the last horse in the glue factory….
I think that this latest article is a bit off topic and a stretch at best…What I want to know is why is the dollar to Euro not fluctuating much…Nicole said that the U. S would be the last horse in the glue factory…why aren’t people dumping their Euros for dollars and Swiss francs? And for that matter what about the Japanese yen?
Well Ken that is funny because if you take a look at todays wsj they have an article saying how much oil is flooding the market because of these plays.
I was thinking this today that maybe it will be gold and not silver or the opposite but is there room for both? And won’t it go lower first as people have to sell off their gold holdings to pay for essentials early on?
I know you don’t like timelines but with history as a guide where do you see this playing out in the next 3 to 4 years….can the central banks drag this out further to 7 or 8 years and if they can do that how about another 7 or 8? Then is it a problem, because human nature can’t worry that far away?
Everyone looks at this situation like there is going to be a floor….when the bottom drops out that is it…it is like a Jewish person in Germany 1928 buying land to protect themselves from changing times, well that was a bad move because the dynamics changed so dramatically that the bottom was gone….here is an interview with Kyle Bass and I think he gets it he just thinks he will be playing the same game with an advantage..when there is massive destabilization you are not playing with the same rules or in the same game..https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=gJfvLADP3HE#t=1493s
Well Green you sound like you got it all figured out…..why should “we” take care of you when you are older when “we” are starving. This is the whole point that I think people don’t understand when the system crashes you won’t be sitting in an ivory tower and it won’t matter how many guns etc you have you won’t be an better off than someone with a mortgage and other debt…You are just buying yourself more time. People need to realize we are all in this together not I got mine stay away…I would rather die a free man than a rat in a hole….
I don’t understand you always seem to allude that everything is off into the distant future and that the older generation has got it made…but I see things crashing and no one will be spared…there will be no safe place to hide money….if the “system” fails pensions won’t be safe either…nor will 401k’s.
So you are saying I should cash out my 401k? Hasn’t the FED programed people to think that what ever happens they have the power to fix it and they will be there to manipulate any and all markets if we have to. Not that any of it is true but as long as you convince people it is true there is no problem; mankind was able to convince people that it is ok to have slaves or kill as long as they are from a different tribe. The level of this game can go on for a long…long time
well I think that the U.S will be the reserve currency for some time but I don’t know If I was in one of these countries I would be scared to park my money in the United states
well can’t Japan keep manipulating their currency…and can’t the FED just as well….they can lower how much mortgage sec.. they purchase say by 10 percent and as long as they keep promising to be there if things go awry no one seems to care…the middle class slowly gets bled to death with a high debt…this seems like it can go on for another 5 to ten years if played right.
I don’t mean to hijack this thread either….Thanks rapier for clarifying a few things…I am just trying to understand governments actions….do they believe what they are doing will work or are they just buying time to see if they can fix this plane mid air before it crashes.. or is it more sinister than that…
Thank you so much for addressing this as it is like trying to learn chemistry without knowing the basic pricipels. I really am astonished at the actions of the FED and very few people questioning this…it is unprecendented actions no? What I am trying to fathom is how we won’t get in the same situation as 07–08 at the end of this summer and then what will be the actions of the FED and other governments..Seems like printing money and massive bailouts again…the FED will have to give the U.S government massive amounts of money to pay out its debt obligations—therby creating inflation rather than deflation that Nicole talks about and strenghing precious metals rather than weaking them…
Again I don’t mean to seem like I don’t care about Europe it is just that I hear a lot of people saying well what happens in Europe does not matter because the U.S economy is picking up and that will eventually transfer to the rest of the world and that is just not so…I know a lot of people with PHD’S that think this as well so it is not just the general public that is ignorant as to what is going on….. I remember the good ole days in 06 when a billion dollars used to be a lot of money,,, now it is just chump change… Thanks again for your explanations on this subject..TEDHow does the FED in the U.S unravel its purchases? Do they have to sell them back and if they do who would buy them and why? This will have the effect of shrinking the money supply? What is left for the FED to do? Why don’t they just print money and drop it out of helicopters instead of buying mortgage back securities…
Just a quick comment here maybe ya’ll can clear up things for me…I listened to an interview with Stonleigh and Kunstler and one thing that surprised me was when Stonleigh said that the U.S currency has about 10 years before fall. What I don’t understand is how is the U.S. going to stand while the rest of the world falls…everything is so intrinsically connected that it seems like we are all in the same boat…It is like the rich Obama fans who have money in the stock think everything is just great about the world…Also CNBC is reporting that the FED
I don’t understand how some can project that things won’t happen in wealthy nations until…all the other countries fall…for example I heard in an interview that Stonleigh had with Howard Kunstler in which she said that the US dollar had about 10 years to go before losing its value…Seems like when faith is lost it will rip through all countries like wild fire all of our economies are inter-connected. It reminds me of when the media was telling us that China was going to de couple from the rest of the world and not be affected by the recession in the U.S..does the U.S really have 10 years? But then again I am amazed we made it to 2013 thanks Ted
Can anyone tell me what the fed is doing..I googled it and I got an article from bloomberg that they are spending 85 billion a month buying bonds…I thought they were buying mortgage backed securities? And when they say the FED is going to unwind its actions….does that mean stop buying these or bring the money back? I am an independent electrician and am wondering if this storm I am seeing is real… and should I take a tax job….want to be able to take care of my kids.
Well thanks for five years of scaring the pants off of me…I feel like I am trying to get my ship out to sea before the tsunami hits but just can’t…I have remained relatively debt free but I work as an electrician and I have been trying to get a government job but so far no luck…I need income coming in. I see this storm hitting pretty soon….
Yes happy birthday…that 5 yrs went by fast…
The word in the news today is that the stock market can keep going up because of the FED…they say they are not printing money but their actions produce the same effect…how long can they do this and when will they be forced to stop and what will make them stop? And what will be the ramifications of the policy? I have some idea but I don’t understand how the FED has been able to do this for so long, is this unprecedented? I have a friend that always tells me this is just like the 70’s and we will shoot out of this soon— I wish I think this time is much different than the 70’sWow the dow up 150 well I guess it is all over…can they just keep this going…is the trillions of dollars they gave the banks in there just floating around…the media is so giddy about it…saying that all the money lost in 09 is back. I have to say I missed the boat on that listening to here I pulled my money and am sitting on cash…I have to say I am secretly hoping for a crash but so far the opposite is happening..I just
I don’t understand some of your articles mention how 15 years from now people in the U.S won’t be able to get their pensions…then there are ones like this that say we are heading for a wall in the next few years.months etc..when a system breaks down it breaks down….pensions stop, governments collapse..the buck stops. So what is it?
Well Krugman defines the whole problem as “made up” everything can be fixed with a tweek from here and there…I think if you followed his advice you could probably kick the can down the road for another 10 years and by then we should have a large scale war…I am tempted to take a job in the government sector..that seems the only place to thrive right now…that and medical…health insurance for a family of 4 with $3000 deductable 1100 a month! I am in the middle class and I am getting bled to death very slowly…another downturn and I don’t know what I will do…that is why the second is always the most dangerous…we have used all are resourses and the second time we panic…
muddle through at less than 2 percent growth? Can we do that without the wheels falling off? It seems like below 2 percent will create a crash. I hear some people say 6 months some say 2 years what say you? Why is Europe so quiet?
I don’t know if this has been discussed but I have yet to see it….
If your take out government spending what would the real GDP look like? Maybe that is why they are dragging their feet on government cuts..you could have a real panic if they pulled back the curtain so to speak.. So maybe the plan is to stall for two more years so they can win more Senate and House seats and then let the fall happen..with two years to restructure society. It is like a virus…it just wants to live..
