Nov 212021
 
 November 21, 2021  Posted by at 9:55 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , ,  94 Responses »


Hannah Höch Cut with the Dada Kitchen Knife through the Last Weimar Beer-Belly Cultural Epoch in Germany 1919

 

2x More Vaccinated English Adults Under 60 Dying Than Unvaccinated (Berenson)
mRNA COVID Vaccines: a Warning (Circ.)
ACS Risk Biomarkers Significantly Increase After mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine (CA)
Harvard Study: Recovered Immunity Far Stronger Than Vaccine Protection (Kirsch)
French Doctors Urge Against Jabs For Healthy Children (Exp.)
Fauci: Babies, Toddlers Eligible For Covid-19 Vaccine By Early 2022 (Hill)
The War On The ‘Unvaccinated’ Aims To Destroy The Control Group (Schachtel)
FDA Produces First 91+ Pages Of Pfizer’s COVID-19 Vaccine File (Siri)
NIH Director Calls For COVID Conspiracists to be “Brought to Justice” (SN)
Navy Shipbuilder Backpedals On Vaccine Mandate (ZH)
Europe’s Covid Crisis Pits Vaccinated Against Unvaccinated (AP)
Fresh Covid Riots For Second Night Hit Dutch City(Y!)

 

 

Used to be known as healthy.

Perfect excuse to jab everyone, a variant you can’t see, or feel.

 

 

 

 

Vit. D: A hormone

 

 

Melissa Ciummei

 

 

No more questions, your honor.

2x More Vaccinated English Adults Under 60 Dying Than Unvaccinated (Berenson)

The brown line represents weekly deaths from all causes of vaccinated people aged 10-59, per 100,000 people. The blue line represents weekly deaths from all causes of unvaccinated people per 100,000 in the same age range. I have checked the underlying dataset myself and this graph is correct. Vaccinated people under 60 are twice as likely to die as unvaccinated people. And overall deaths in Britain are running well above normal. I don’t know how to explain this other than vaccine-caused mortality.

Read more …

https://www.ahajournals.org/: Mrna COVID Vaccines Dramatically Increase Endothelial Inflammatory Markers and ACS Risk as Measured by the PULS Cardiac Test: a Warning

“..the mRNA vacs dramatically increase inflammation on the endothelium and T cell infiltration of cardiac muscle and may account for the observations of increased thrombosis, cardiomyopathy, and other vascular events following vaccination.”

mRNA COVID Vaccines: a Warning (Circ.)

Our group has been using the PLUS Cardiac Test (GD Biosciences, Inc, Irvine, CA) a clinically validated measurement of multiple protein biomarkers which generates a score predicting the 5 yr risk (percentage chance) of a new Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS). The score is based on changes from the norm of multiple protein biomarkers including IL-16, a proinflammatory cytokine, soluble Fas, an inducer of apoptosis, and Hepatocyte Growth Factor (HGF)which serves as a marker for chemotaxis of T-cells into epithelium and cardiac tissue, among other markers. Elevation above the norm increases the PULS score, while decreases below the norm lowers the PULS score.The score has been measured every 3-6 months in our patient population for 8 years. Recently, with the advent of the mRNA COVID 19 vaccines (vac) by Moderna and Pfizer, dramatic changes in the PULS score became apparent in most patients.


This report summarizes those results. A total of 566 pts, aged 28 to 97, M:F ratio 1:1 seen in a preventive cardiology practice had a new PULS test drawn from 2 to 10 weeks following the 2nd COVID shot and was compared to the previous PULS score drawn 3 to 5 months previously pre- shot. Baseline IL-16 increased from 35=/-20 above the norm to 82 =/- 75 above the norm post-vac; sFas increased from 22+/- 15 above the norm to 46=/-24 above the norm post-vac; HGF increased from 42+/-12 above the norm to 86+/-31 above the norm post-vac. These changes resulted in an increase of the PULS score from 11% 5 yr ACS risk to 25% 5 yr ACS risk. At the time of this report, these changes persist for at least 2.5 months post second dose of vac. We conclude that the mRNA vacs dramatically increase inflammation on the endothelium and T cell infiltration of cardiac muscle and may account for the observations of increased thrombosis, cardiomyopathy, and other vascular events following vaccination.

Read more …

Second take on the same study, this from thecardiologyadvisor.com.

ACS Risk Biomarkers Significantly Increase After mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine (CA)

The risk of developing acute coronary syndrome (ACS) significantly increased in patients after receiving mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, according to a report presented at the American Heart Association (AHA) Scientific Sessions 2021, held from November 13 to 15, 2021. The study included 566 men and women (1:1) aged 28-97 years, who were patients in a preventive cardiology practice. All patients received a new PULS Cardiac Test 2-10 weeks after their second COVID-19 vaccine. This test result was compared with a PULS score from 3-5 months prevaccination. The PULS Cardiac Test measures multiple protein biomarkers, including hepatocyte growth factor [HGF], soluble Fas, and IL-16, and uses the results to calculate a 5-year risk score for new ACS. The PULS score increases with above-normal elevation. All participants received this test every 3-6 months for 8 years.


From prevaccination to postvaccination, the levels of IL-16 increased from 35=/-20 to 82=/-75 above the norm. Soluble Fas showed an increase from 22±15 to 46=/-24 above the norm. HGF rose from 42±12 to 86±31 above the norm. As a result, the 5-year ACS PULS risk score increased from 11% to 25%. By the time the report was published, changes had persisted for 2.5 months or more after the second vaccine dose. The study author concluded that “mRNA [vaccines] dramatically increase inflammation on the endothelium and T cell infiltration of cardiac muscle and may account for the observations of increased thrombosis, cardiomyopathy, and other vascular events following vaccination.”

Read more …

The obvious stuff that everyone understands, but that The Science and the media keep trying to cast doubts on.

Harvard Study: Recovered Immunity Far Stronger Than Vaccine Protection (Kirsch)

A new study from Harvard (Continued Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination among Urban Healthcare Workers during Delta Variant Predominance) tracked vaccinated and unvaccinated Massachusetts healthcare workers and showed 0 infections in 74,557 person-days for previously infected patients compared to 49 infections out of 830,084 person-days for fully vaccinated patients. In short, if you’ve recovered from COVID, it is completely nonsensical for you to be vaccinated. You have virtually no chance of being re-infected. Summing it up: • Recovered patients much more protected from re-infection than vaccinated patients • Recovered patients, even if they get COVID, cannot pass it on to anyone else as far as we know (as the CDC was forced to reveal under FOIA from Aaron Siri) • We don’t know if subsequently getting vaccinated after recovering will improve or degrade points 1 or 2

In short, vaccine mandates that don’t exempt those who have recovered are unethical and a danger to the health of society. They are preventing us from getting to “herd immunity” which we can achieve through allowing natural infection and treating with effective early treatment protocols. The study also concluded that the vaccine efficacy was 76.5% (95% CI: 40.9–90.6%) against Delta. Yet other data shows the vaccines do nothing or make things worse. I didn’t see an obvious flaw in this study regarding that determination. I don’t know if they used different Ct values for vaccinated or unvaccinated. If anyone sees a flaw, please comment below.

This study adds more evidence that recovered immunity >> vaccine immunity. Even if the vaccines were perfectly save, forcing everyone to get vaccinated is both unnecessary and jeopardizes public health. Even if I ignore all the other data sources and only believe this one small study, it doesn’t change my opinion on the safety of these vaccines. DO NOT GET VACCINATED. You are always better off getting COVID, getting early treatment as soon as you have symptoms (safer and more effective than any vaccine), and then you are done. This is what Aaron Rodgers did. He maximized benefits for himself, his teammates, and society. Win-win-win.

Read more …

Only those with co-morbidities.

French Doctors Urge Against Jabs For Healthy Children (Exp.)

The increase in reported cases across Europe has been used by politicians to renew their push for mass vaccination. It has also reawakened debate about the jabbing of healthy children against the virus. But the French Academy of Medicine (FAM) insists the country’s vaccine roll-out should not extend to all healthy children. It has advised that, for many children, the risk-benefit balance weighs against vaccination. The 200-year-old advisory body, quoted in 20 Minutes, said in a statement that it “recommends extending immunisation against Covid by the vaccine to children at risk of severe forms of the disease due to co-morbidities, whatever their age, as well as to other children living in their family and school environment”. It does not believe that healthy children outside of this bracket should be vaccinated against Covid.

Read more …

Fauci doesn’t speak French. And love the use of the word “eligible”, like he’s doing you a favor.

Fauci: Babies, Toddlers Eligible For Covid-19 Vaccine By Early 2022 (Hill)

Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Anthony Fauci said Thursday that though he “can’t guarantee it,” babies and toddlers aged 6 months to 5 years could be eligible for COVID-19 vaccination by spring. “Hopefully within a reasonably short period of time, likely the beginning of next year in 2022, in the first quarter of 2022, it will be available to them,” Fauci told Insider in an interview, though he cautioned that he was speculating, adding, “you’ve got to do the clinical trial.” Pfizer-BioNTech previously stated that results from their clinical trial in children in the age ranges of 2 to 5 years and 6 months to 2 years are expected as soon as the fourth quarter of this year. According to a report by ABC Tampa in late October, Pfizer expects to apply this month for approval for its COVID-19 vaccine in children ages 6 months to 5 years, the last age range in the U.S. not yet being vaccinated.

“The Food and Drug Administration and CDC won’t approve the vaccine until there’s some data showing safety and efficacy,” Philip Landrigan, a pediatrician and immunologist at Boston College, told CNN Health earlier this month. “There’s every reason to think that it will be safe, and it will be efficacious,” Landrigan added. “But the agencies need to be cautious, justifiably so, and so they’re not going to give the approval until they have the data.” According to CNN, Pfizer is the furthest along in trials for those aged 6 months to 5 years, but Moderna is also conducting studies in very young children.

“We don’t have enough data now to present it for a regulatory approach, but right now, the data are being collected and analyzed,” Fauci said when speaking to CNN earlier this month. “So we will be able to answer the question, I believe, within a reasonable period of time regarding the safety and the immunogenicity among those lower than 5 years old.” According to CNN, Johnson & Johnson is currently in the first phase three study in adolescents ages 12 to 17 years old and expect results in the coming months. The White House announced Wednesday that 10 percent of children ages 5 to 11 have received their first coronavirus shot, following the approval of the Pfizer pediatric dose.

Read more …

The main remaining control group is the children.

The War On The ‘Unvaccinated’ Aims To Destroy The Control Group (Schachtel)

I wanted to turn your attention to a side by side comparison map comparing the COVID pandemic of last year to this year. It is a true “photo is worth a million words” tweet from Rational Ground’s Woke Zombie: The symmetry is indeed amazing. And the conclusion, after over 600 days of COVID Mania, could not be more clear. Not a single “public health expert”-hailed mitigation or suppression measure, including the COVID shots, has done anything significant to solve the reality that lots of people get sick during their area’s annual respiratory season. This global war on a virus is going about as well as the War on Afghanistan went when it came to eliminating the Taliban. The lockdowns failed to stop a virus. The universal masking regime failed to stop a virus. The millions and millions of societal restrictions and business closures failed to stop a virus.

And now it’s become pretty clear that the highly-touted “miracle” mRNA shots are failing to stop a virus.. Instead of accepting this reality, world governments are doubling, tripling, and quadrupling down on the madness. Despite incredibly high compliance rates, with an estimated 7.5+ billion COVID shots delivered in arms, the mRNA “cure” has not lived up to its admittedly impossible to achieve standards. In the span of 6 months, we went from: “You’re not gonna get COVID if you have these vaccinations”. And “vaccinated people don’t get the virus and don’t get sick”. And “all three vaccines are 100 percent effective against hospitalization and death”, To our current reality of another season of lockdowns, restrictions, and the usual, nonsensical “public health measures.”


7.5+ billion shots later, those of us who’ve followed the data closely have found out that all of the aforementioned statements, endorsed by the most renowned Government Health officials in the world, were complete nonsense. Weapons-grade nonsense. They were nowhere near remotely close to even representing a scintilla of truth.

Read more …

“..in the 2 1/2 months following EUA, Pfizer received a total of 42,086 reports containing 158,893 “events.”

FDA Produces First 91+ Pages Of Pfizer’s COVID-19 Vaccine File (Siri)

Two months and one day after it was sued, and close to 3 months since it licensed Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine, the FDA released the first round of documents it reviewed before licensing this product. The production consisted of 91 pdf pages, one xpt file, and one txt file. You can download them here. While it is for the scientists to properly analyze, let me share one observation. One of the documents produced is a Cumulative Analysis of Post-Authorization Adverse Event Reports of [the Vaccine] Received Through 28-Feb-2021, which is a mere 2 1/2 months after the vaccine received emergency use authorization (EUA). This document reflects adverse events following vaccination that have completed Pfizer’s “workflow cycle,” both in and outside the U.S., up to February 28, 2021.

Pfizer explains, on page 6, that “Due to the large numbers of spontaneous adverse event reports received for the product, [Pfizer] has prioritised the processing of serious cases…” and that Pfizer “has also taken a [sic] multiple actions to help alleviate the large increase of adverse event reports” including “increasing the number of data entry and case processing colleagues” and “has onboarded approximately [REDACTED] additional fulltime employees (FTEs).” Query why it is proprietary to share how many people Pfizer had to hire to track all of the adverse events being reported shortly after launching its product. As for the volume of reports, in the 2 1/2 months following EUA, Pfizer received a total of 42,086 reports containing 158,893 “events.” Most of these reports were from the U.S. and disproportionately involved women (29,914 vs. 9,182 provided by men) and those between 31 and 50 years old (13,886 vs 21,325 for all other age groups combined, with another 6,876 whose ages were unknown). Also, 25,957 of the events were classified as “Nervous system disorders”.

Females between the ages of 30 and 51. Nervous system disorders. That sounds familiar. As a matter of fact, that sounds similar to the concerns raised by some of the women testifying or described in the videos below. But no cause for alarm since Pfizer explains to the FDA: “The findings of these signal detection analyses are consistent with the known safety profile of the vaccine.” So if they knew these issues were going to arise, then why didn’t they appear to have enough staff to process this expected volume of reports? The grand conclusion by Pfizer to the FDA: “The data do not reveal any novel safety concerns or risks requiring label changes and support a favorable benefit risk profile of to the BNT162b2 vaccine.”

Read more …

It may surprise you, but he’s not talking about himself, or Fauci.

NIH Director Calls For COVID Conspiracists to be “Brought to Justice” (SN)

National Institutes of Health (NIH) Director Francis Collins has angrily called for anyone who spreads “misinformation” about COVID-19 online to be “brought to justice.” “Conspiracies are winning here. Truth is losing. That’s a really serious indictment of the way in which our society seems to be traveling,” Collins told the Washington Post. Citing an onslaught of angry messages directed at Dr. Anthony Fauci, who Collins appears to believe is above criticism, the bureaucrat demanded that those responsible for such behavior should be identified and “brought to justice.” The article cited one such example of “misinformation” being Fauci’s involvement in barbaric experiments conducted on dogs by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), despite the fact that such cruelty factually occurred under Fauci’s leadership.


While Collins didn’t specify precisely what he meant by “brought to justice,” Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla previously asserted that individuals who spread false information about COVID vaccines are “criminals” who “have literally cost millions of lives.” That’s an interesting benchmark given that it was once considered false to claim that COVID vaccines didn’t stop the vaccinated spreading COVID, which is now an all too obvious fact. Quite what constitutes “misinformation” about COVID-19 is anyone’s guess given that several things that turned out to be plausible or true, such as the origin of the virus behind the Wuhan lab, were once deemed to be “misinformation.” It seems likely that whatever the National Institutes of Health, Anthony Fauci or Pfizer deem to be “misinformation” will become the standard. As we previously highlighted, efforts to brand those who question the safety and efficacy of products manufactured by pharmaceutical corporations that have been plagued by a myriad of historical scandals are also underway in the UK.

Read more …

1,000s such stories. We get to see just a handful.

Navy Shipbuilder Backpedals On Vaccine Mandate (ZH)

A federal subcontractor to the US Navy reversed course over the vaccine mandate this week, and announced that most workers will not longer be required to get the Covid-19 vaccine. Huntington Ingalls Industries, parent company of Newport News Shipbuilding made the announcement on Tuesday night notifying employees that they will no longer have to comply with a January 4 deadline. “..with respect to Ingalls Shipbuilding and Newport News Shipbuilding, our customer has confirmed that our contracts do not include a requirement to implement the mandate,” reads the letter. “In light of this development, we are hereby suspending the deadline for vaccination, except where specific Technical Solutions contracts require it.” The shipyard initially announced that all 25,000 employees would need to be fully vaccinated by Dec. 8 as a “condition of continued employment,” only to move it to January – and now, not at all.


Some shipyard employees feel ‘tricked’ however, as they “only got the vaccine because of the mandate,” according to WTKR. “They made me get it and then lifted it,” said Newport News Shipyard employee, Deshawn Royal. “I didn’t want to get it, but they said I had to get it or we were going to get fired. And then they lifted it. Y’all did us wrong.” Another employee, Rodney Apop, said that a lot of co-workers feel the same way. “They went ahead and jumped, and they didn’t have the choice to do it,” he said. “And now when they take [the mandate] away, they wish they had known so they didn’t have to.” Employees speculate the suspension came after workers threatened to quit. “You’re gonna lose your people,” said Royal. “Not everybody is gonna get it. It’s not worth a lot of people’s money to get injected with something they don’t want.”

Read more …

It’s the politicians and the media that pit them against each other.

But yeah, let’s talk Christmas. What would Joseph and Mary be doing in a world of vaccine mandates imposed by the Romans? Would Jesus get jabbed in the manger?

Europe’s Covid Crisis Pits Vaccinated Against Unvaccinated (AP)

This was supposed to be the Christmas in Europe where family and friends could once again embrace holiday festivities and one another. Instead, the continent is the global epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic as cases soar to record levels in many countries. With infections spiking again despite nearly two years of restrictions, the health crisis increasingly is pitting citizen against citizen — the vaccinated against the unvaccinated. Governments desperate to shield overburdened healthcare systems are imposing rules that limit choices for the unvaccinated in the hope that doing so will drive up rates of vaccinations. Austria on Friday went a step further, making vaccinations mandatory as of Feb. 1. “For a long time, maybe too long, I and others thought that it must be possible to convince people in Austria, to convince them to get vaccinated voluntarily,” Austrian Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg said.

He called the move “our only way to break out of this vicious cycle of viral waves and lockdown discussions for good.” While Austria so far stands alone in the European Union in making vaccinations mandatory, more and more governments are clamping down. Starting Monday, Slovakia is banning people who haven’t been vaccinated from all nonessential stores and shopping malls. They also will not be allowed to attend any public event or gathering and will be required to test twice a week just to go to work. “A merry Christmas does not mean a Christmas without Covid-19,” warned Prime Minister Eduard Heger. “For that to happen, Slovakia would need to have a completely different vaccination rate.” He called the measures “a lockdown for the unvaccinated.”

Slovakia, where just 45.3% of the 5.5 million population is fully vaccinated, reported a record 8,342 new virus cases on Tuesday. It is not only nations of central and eastern Europe that are suffering anew. Wealthy nations in the west also are being hit hard and imposing restrictions on their populations once again. “It is really, absolutely, time to take action,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday. With a vaccination rate of 67.5%, her nation is now considering mandatory vaccinations for many health professionals. Greece, too, is targeting the unvaccinated. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced a battery of new restrictions late Thursday for the unvaccinated, keeping them out of venues including bars, restaurants, cinemas, theaters, museums and gyms, even if they have tested negative.

“It is an immediate act of protection and, of course, an indirect urge to be vaccinated,” Mitsotakis said. The restrictions enrage Clare Daly, an Irish EU legislator who is a member of the European parliament’s civil liberties and justice committee. She argues that nations are trampling individual rights. “In a whole number of cases, member states are excluding people from their ability to go to work,” Daly said, calling Austria’s restrictions on the unvaccinated that preceded its decision Friday to impose a full lockdown “a frightening scenario.” Even in Ireland, where 75.9 % of the population are fully vaccinated, she feels a backlash against holdouts. “There’s almost a sort of hate speech being whipped up against the unvaccinated,” she said.

Read more …

“People want to live, that’s why we’re here..”

But the media just give you the burning cars, because people who just want to live are evil anti-vaxxers.

Fresh Covid Riots For Second Night Hit Dutch City(Y!)

Fresh rioting broke out late Saturday over the Dutch government’s coronavirus measures, with rioters throwing stones and fireworks at police, and setting fire to bicycles as protests turned violent for a second night in the Netherlands. Officers in riot gear charged groups of protesters in The Hague, while a water cannon was used to put out a fire at a busy intersection. Police patrolled on horseback and on bicycles. Police arrested several people in a working class neighbourhood of the city after a day of protests elsewhere in the country which were mainly peaceful, AFP correspondents saw. But the atmosphere changed late on Saturday, with groups of youths pelting officers in The Hague and also in the central town of Urk, as well as cities in the southern Limburg province, the NOS public broadcaster said.

“These people out here are protesting about 2G (restrictions on the unvaccinated) and the lockdown,” Hague pizza shop owner Ferdi Yilmaz told AFP as he surveyed the damage to his shop. “They are angry about it,” said Yilmaz, who added police dragged people out of his shop and “hit me on the head for no reason.” On Friday night, at least two people were injured after police fired shots at protesters and 51 were arrested after an “orgy” of violence in Rotterdam. The Netherlands went back into Western Europe’s first partial lockdown of the winter last Saturday with at least three weeks of curbs, and is now planning to ban unvaccinated people from entering some venues, the so-called 2G option.

Earlier several thousand protesters angry at the latest measures gathered in Amsterdam on Saturday, despite one group earlier in the day having cancelled their rally because of the previous night’s violence. Another thousand marched through the southern city of Breda near the Belgian border, carrying banners with slogans such as “No Lockdown”. Organisers said they opposed Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s plans to exclude the unvaccinated from bars and restaurants. “People want to live, that’s why we’re here,” said organiser Joost Eras. But “we’re not rioters. We come in peace,” he said.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Final battle

 

 

State lines

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in virustime; donate with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

 

Dec 062020
 


Giorgio de Chirico Piazza d’Italia 1913

 

 

A -short- look at how vaccine makers like Pfizer and Moderna get to claim a 90% or even 95% efficacy for their products, with the help of regular Automatic Earth commenter Doc Robinson (not a medical doctor) and his quotes from the British Medical Journal (BMJ). The way the companies report their efficacy may be normal in their circles, but will, in the “normal” world, be experienced as confusing if not outright misleading.

What they do -simplified-, let’s take the Pfizer report, is they have 20,000 volunteers who get a vaccine, in this case 8 are infected, and that gives a result of -well- over 90% efficacy. But that is largely meaningless, because it appears to assume that all remaining 19,992 volunteers would have gotten infected if not for the vaccine.

To give this meaning, the world of science has long insisted on control groups (placebo groups), in this case also 20,000 strong, who don’t get a vaccine. If you know how many in that group are infected, you know -much better- hoe effective the vaccine is. Turns out, in the control group 86 out of 20,000 were infected. More than 8, but much less than 20,000. 19,914 unvaccinated people never got infected.

The 90%-95% numbers “measure” relative risk reduction. The absolute risk reduction is completely different. In the Pfizer case, 99.57% of the unvaccinated people did not become infected, while 99.96% of the vaccinated people did not become infected. Therefore, the absolute risk reduction is 99.96% – 99.57% = 0.39%. While there remain many questions swirling around the mid- to long term effects of taking the vaccine.

You would think this is the most relevant information out there for those thinking about being vaccinated or not, and not the 95% relative risk reduction. But the latter info is what is reported. And sure, it sounds much better.

Here are a few excerpts from British Medical Journal pieces as Doc Robinson selected them earlier this week:

(Comment Doc Robinson)
(British Medical Journal)

“…leading both companies to claim around 95% efficacy. Let’s put this in perspective. First, a relative risk reduction is being reported, not absolute risk reduction, which appears to be less than 1%. Second, these results refer to the trials’ primary endpoint of covid-19 of essentially any severity, and importantly not the vaccine’s ability to save lives, nor the ability to prevent infection, nor the efficacy in important subgroups (e.g. frail elderly). Those still remain unknown.

Third, these results reflect a time point relatively soon after vaccination, and we know nothing about vaccine performance at 3, 6, or 12 months, so cannot compare these efficacy numbers against other vaccines like influenza vaccines (which are judged over a season). Fourth, children, adolescents, and immunocompromised individuals were largely excluded from the trials, so we still lack any data on these important populations.

I previously argued that the trials are studying the wrong endpoint, and for an urgent need to correct course and study more important endpoints like prevention of severe disease and transmission in high risk people. Yet…”

(Comment Doc Robinson)
(British Medical Journal)

Moderna’s phase III trial has shown that, so far, the vaccine is 94.5% effective. (Mahase, BMJ 2020;371:m4471, November 17) As with the Pfizer vaccine news release, few numbers are provided, but we can approximate the absolute risk reduction for a vaccinated individual and the Number Needed To Vaccinate (NNTV): There were 90 cases of Covid-19 illness in a placebo group of 15,000 (0.006) and 5 cases in a vaccine group of 15,000 (0.00033). This yields an absolute risk reduction of 0.00567 and NNTV = 176 (1/0.00567).


There were 11 severe illnesses, all in the placebo group, for an absolute risk reduction of 0.00073 and NNTV = 1370. So to prevent one severe illness 1370 individuals must be vaccinated. The other 1369 individuals are not saved from a severe illness, but are subject to vaccine adverse effects, whatever they may be and whenever we learn about them… Shouldn’t absolute risk reduction be reported so individuals can make fully informed decisions about vaccinations?

(Comment Doc Robinson)

Some questions about the effectiveness of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, from the British Medical Journal BMJ. The “absolute risk reduction” is relatively small and is being downplayed by the vaccine manufacturers. This is a calculation of how much the vaccine reduces the likelihood that a person would become infected.

For example, if a non-vaccinated person has a 50% chance of becoming infected with a disease, and a vaccinated person has a 10% chance, then the “absolute risk reduction” would be 40%. The absolute risk reductions for the Covid-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are estimated to be less than 1%.

For the Pfizer vaccine, it’s only about 0.4% reduction. For the Moderna vaccine, it’s only about 0.6% reduction in the risk of having a detectable infection (and less than 0.1% reduction in the risk of getting a “severe” infection).

Thus, for the Moderna vaccine “to prevent one severe illness 1370 individuals must be vaccinated. The other 1369 individuals are not saved from a severe illness, but are subject to vaccine adverse effects, whatever they may be and whenever we learn about them.”

(British Medical Journal)

94 cases in a trial that has enrolled about 40,000 subjects: 8 cases in a vaccine group of 20,000 and 86 cases in a placebo group of 20,000. This yields a Covid-19 attack rate of 0.0004 in the vaccine group and 0.0043 in the placebo group. Relative risk (RR) for vaccination = 0.093, which translates into a “vaccine effectiveness” of 90.7% [100(1-0.093)]. This sounds impressive, but the absolute risk reduction for an individual is only about 0.4% (0.0043-0.0004=0.0039).


The Number Needed To Vaccinate (NNTV) = 256 (1/0.0039), which means that to prevent just 1 Covid-19 case 256 individuals must get the vaccine; the other 255 individuals derive no benefit, but are subject to vaccine adverse effects, whatever they may be and whenever we learn about them……We’ve already heard that an early effect of the vaccine is “like a hangover or the flu.” Will vaccinees who are later exposed to coronaviruses have more severe illness as a result of antibody-dependent enhancement of infection (ADEI), a known hazard of coronavirus vaccines? Is there squalene in the Pfizer vaccine? If so, will vaccinees be subject to autoimmune diseases, like Gulf War Syndrome and narcolepsy that have been associated with the adjuvant?

(Comment Doc Robinson)

When Pfizer said its vaccine may be “more than 90% effective” this meant that during the vaccine trial, 8 people (out of 20,000) in the vaccinated group became infected, while 86 people (out of 20,000) in the placebo group became infected, giving an effectiveness of 90.7% (based on the relative risk reduction, not the absolute risk reduction). If 80% of these trial participants were already immune prior to this trial, then the non-immune people would be 20% (or 4,000 in each group), and the “effectiveness” based on relative risk reduction to the non-immune people would still be 90.7%.

Imagine a vaccine trial where the entire population of the United States participates, with half the people getting the vaccine and half getting a placebo. If only 86 unvaccinated people (out of 165 million unvaccinated) become infected, while 8 vaccinated people (out of 165 million vaccinated) become infected, then the trial result would still be “more than 90% effective” even though the infection rates are such a tiny percentage of the population.

To me, these are the more relevant numbers coming out of that Pfizer trial:
99.57% of the unvaccinated people did not become infected.
99.96% of the vaccinated people did not become infected.
Absolute risk reduction = 99.96% – 99.57% = 0.39%

 

 

Ergo, to reduce our risk of getting infected by 0.4% or 0.6%, we will now all have to be vaccinated and carry vaccination passports with us if we want to be part of “regular” society, even as the Pfizer CEO himself admitted the company has no idea whether being vaccinated provides us with any protection from infecting others. Excuse me?

 

 

 

We try to run the Automatic Earth on donations. Since ad revenue has collapsed, you are now not just a reader, but an integral part of the process that builds this site.

Click at the top of the sidebars for Paypal and Patreon donations. Thank you for your support.

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in virustime, election time, all the time. Click at the top of the sidebars to donate with Paypal and Patreon.