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Debt Rattle April 22 2026

Apr 222026
 
 April 22, 2026  Posted by at 7:26 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,  43 Responses »


Edward Hopper The Circle Theater, New York 1936


• Trump Blinks Again, Unilaterally Extends Iran Ceasefire (ZH)
• Schrödinger’s Strait (PA)
• Trump Says Iran Can ‘Expect’ Bombs (ZH)
• Iran Promises To ‘Reveal New Cards On The Battlefield’ (RT)
• Iran: US Must Retract ‘Maximalist’ Nuclear Demands for Talks to Proceed (ET)
• Are We Seeing the Makings of an Iranian Civil War? (Eric Florack)
• Perspective on Iran Conflict and Latest Intel Efforts to Disrupt Trump (CTH)
• It Is, After All, the Department of Justice (CTH)
• US Intel Secretly Flagged Major 2020 Election Vulnerabilities (JTN)
• Spygate, Russiagate, IC Impeachment, Jack Smith Targeting and Lawfare (CTH)
• US, Cuban Regime Confirm ‘Secret’ Talks in Havana (Sarah Anderson)
• The Space Launch Industry Is in Big Trouble… Except for You-Know-Who (Green)
• Hungary’s Magyar Warns Netanyahu of Arrest (RT)
• Europe EV Sales Jump 51% As Iran War Sends Gasoline Prices Soaring (Paraskova)

 


 

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/2046308075947405581?s=20 https://twitter.com/Tironianae/status/2046175457201041457?s=20

 


 


No, Trump doesn’t blink. This is scripted.

• Trump Blinks Again, Unilaterally Extends Iran Ceasefire (ZH)

TACO Tuesday… Again: Ceasefire Extended in Trump TS Post. Can’t make this up… Trump unilaterally extends ceasefire, but says US Navy’s blockade of Iran’s ports will stay in place, after Islamabad talks collapse. Trump punts again… enjoy TACO Tuesday… we can say at least the bombing doesn’t look to resume, yet. To give more formality to it – or make it official, the White House also quickly put out Trump’s statement (and in a more presentable font) below. Initial reaction from Tehran:

IRAN NOT OFFICIALLY COMMENTING ON CEASEFIRE EXTENSION
IRAN’S POSITION WILL BE ANNOUNCED SUBSEQUENTLY


2nd Round Talks Collapse, Vance Not Traveling
Late afternoon headlines now confirm what was looking more and more inevitable as the hours passed but with no one side boarding planes to head to Islamabad: the Associated Press is reporting that Vice President Vance has called off the whole trip. This also as Tasnim is reporting Iran’s “final decision” to not be in Pakistan Wednesday – the same day the two-week ceasefire formally comes to a close. Pakistan sources are meanwhile reporting that key negotiating figures are absent on the ground, and officials are said to be urging the sides to join a second-round summit. And per Bloomberg: “Iran, for its part, told the mediators its delegation won’t leave Tehran before the blockade is lifted, according to officials familiar with the matter.”

US Delegation Trip for Talks ‘On Hold’
As VP Vance has been seen at the White House, clearly not en route to Pakistan for Iran talks, a hugely significant headline has sent oil up and stocks dumping more:

VP Vance’s Pakistan trip has been put on hold as Iran’s leadership remained divided over whether to participate in a new round of peace talks, via Axios
VANCE TRIP ON HOLD AS IRAN DIDN’T RESPOND TO US POSITIONS: NYT
VANCE TRIP TO PAKISTAN HAS NOT BEEN CANCLED: NYT
Newsquawk market reaction: Stocks see weakness, while oil and Dollar gain amid NYT reports that VP Vance’s diplomatic trip to Islamabad has been put on hold after Tehran failed to respond to American negotiating positions.

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“.. open and closed at the same time,.”

• Schrödinger’s Strait (PA)

Over the weekend, the Strait of Hormuz became Schrödinger’s Strait: open and closed at the same time, depending on which headline you were reading. On Friday, markets traded as if the Iran war was winding down cleanly. Iran said the Strait was open to commercial shipping during the ceasefire, Trump said he expected a deal with Iran “soon,” oil fell, and stocks rallied. By Sunday evening, Brent was back up sharply and stock futures were lower, after new friction around the U.S. blockade and Iran’s threats to respond. Reuters reported over the weekend that U.S. forces had turned back vessels under the blockade rules, that Iran warned the Gulf and Gulf of Oman would not be secure if its ports were threatened, and that the U.S. enforcement zone extends east into the Gulf of Oman. That sounds like chaos, but there’s a logic to it.


Reflexivity With Warships
What Trump appears to be doing here—whether consciously or not—is something that looks a lot like George Soros’s principle of reflexivity. Soros’s basic idea was that markets don’t just passively reflect reality; they can also change it. Prices move, expectations shift, financing conditions tighten or loosen, and those moves feed back into the real economy and even into political decisions. That’s especially relevant in a war centered on oil flows, shipping lanes, and financial pressure.

Iran’s Lever
Iran’s preferred lever has been obvious for weeks: threaten the Strait of Hormuz, raise oil prices, spook global markets, and put pressure on Washington through the U.S. economy. Higher crude means higher gasoline prices, and higher gasoline prices are one of the fastest ways to create political pain for an American president.

That leverage is real, because oil is globally priced and higher crude still means higher gasoline prices for American consumers. But it is also less direct than it would be for countries more dependent on Gulf barrels. The U.S. imports about 30%-35% of its crude oil demand, but 60%-62% of those imports come from Canada. That doesn’t make Washington immune, but it does mean Tehran’s strongest market weapon is still blunter against the United States than against much of the rest of the world. That is Tehran’s most obvious form of reflexive pressure. It doesn’t need to destroy a U.S. carrier group to hurt Washington. It just needs to make markets believe supply is at risk.

Trump’s Lever
Trump’s pressure campaign has been different. Much more of it has been in the physical world. First, there’s the blockade itself. It’s not a general closure of the Strait. It’s a targeted effort to stop Iranian oil sales, block Iranian maritime commerce, and deny Tehran both export earnings and imports flowing through the Gulf. U.S. enforcement boundaries extend east into the Gulf of Oman, which means Washington can exert pressure without having to crowd all its ships into the narrow and dangerous Strait itself. Second, there’s the pressure that builds as time passes. A blockade doesn’t just reduce cash inflow. It also creates storage problems for a producer.

As Miad Maleki put it in an X post over the weekend, “the oil and gasoline clocks don’t negotiate.”

He wrote that Iran entered the blockade with about 15 million barrels in Kharg storage, roughly 51% full. At a flat production fill rate of 1.9 million barrels per day, that storage would max out in about 8 days. Even with aggressive upstream throttling, he said, the ceiling would still be hit in about 20 days. After that, wells may have to be shut in, risking permanent reservoir damage. nThat’s the point. As time passes, Tehran has to think not just about lost revenue, but about storage, field management, and what happens if production has to be curtailed under pressure.

The Market As Battlefield
And that’s where reflexivity comes in. If Iran can push oil high enough, long enough, it can create pressure on Trump through markets and through consumer prices. But if Trump can keep oil from rising too much—through his own rhetoric, through repeated hints of imminent talks, through confidence that the conflict will end soon—then he can blunt Iran’s pressure on the U.S. economy while continuing to squeeze Iran physically through the blockade.

In other words, the market itself becomes part of the battlefield. If crude stays lower than Tehran wants, Trump buys time. Lower oil prices mean less pressure from American drivers, less political pressure on the White House, and more room to keep the blockade in place. If crude spikes, the reverse happens: Tehran’s leverage rises, not because it has sunk the U.S. Navy, but because it has raised the domestic economic cost of continuing the campaign.

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Iran will delay wherever they can. They’ve done it for 50 years. It’s worked for 50 years. Trump will break that. But it will take some time.

• Trump Says Iran Can ‘Expect’ Bombs (ZH)

President Trump on Tuesday said he expects a strong outcome from negotiations with Iran, telling CNBC that “they will end up with a great deal.” He added that “Iran has no choice, it is regime change no matter what you want to call it,” and emphasized that the US is in “a strong negotiating position.” He said the naval blockade “has been successful” and that US forces are “in control of the Strait.” Trump also stated he does not want to extend the ceasefire, saying “there is not that much time” – but added that “Iran can get itself onto good footing with a deal.”


He also acknowledged that Iran has likely continued to do missile restocking in the ceasefire interim period, and also moving its remaining missile arsenal around. But Trump also claimed the US is “much more powerful than it was a few weeks again” and that CENTCOM used the ceasefire to restock as well. Importantly he also said the US is “ready to go militarily” and that the world should “expect” bombing – in the instance there’s no Pakistan deal reached. And an interesting China reference:

Caught an Iranian ship with gifts from China, thought he had an understanding with China’s Xi, says “that’s alright”. Pakistan Talks: Timeline Still Up in the Air Who will fly to Islamabad first? Al Jazeera comments on the emerging diplomatic standoff before actual diplomacy even gets started, amid the continued tit-for-tat threats of potential escalation on the battlefield: Pakistan is ready to host the talks. They are planning for them to take place on Wednesday at the highest level. But the White House has been very tight-lipped about when JD Vance will be leaving Washington.

What appears to be going on is the US trying to protect itself from embarrassment. If it is to send its team, which ends up sitting here in Islamabad without Iran showing up, that would be a huge embarrassment. As a result, there now appears to be a game between the US and Iran over who is going to get on their plane and fly here first. Per Bloomberg at about 4am US time: “Iran s state-run TV denies unspecified media reports that an Iranian delegation has departed for or arrived in Pakistan for negotiations with the US.” Latest:

Al Jazeera reports: Mediators received confirmation of US VP Vance and Iran’s Ghalifab’s arrival in Islamabad at dawn Wednesday to lead talks.At the same time, per WSJ, Iran has informed regional mediators that it will send a delegation to Islamabad after for days of repeatedly refusing to commit to a new round of negotiations. However, there’s not been official confirmation, only signaling, with Pakistani officials insisting the Iranians will be there. And yet, it was only on Monday that Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said that there was no plan for a second round of negotiations.

But if all goes well, Vice President Vance is expected to depart for Pakistan today, leading the delegation which includes Kushner and Witkoff. As a reminder, on Monday President Trump said “lots of bombs” will be unleased on Iran if there is no deal, and also given the White House doesn’t plan to extend the ceasefire. The key issues of Iran’s nuclear program and the Hormuz Strait loom large. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has at the same time warned: “we do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and over the past two weeks we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield”.

Another Vessel Interdiction by US Navy
US forces boarded a sanctioned tanker without resistance in the Indo-Pacific as part of operations targeting vessels linked to Iran, the Pentagon said on X. Initial statements did not indicate a precise location, and clearly it did not occur in the Hormuz Strait. Washington recently announced it is ready to seize ‘illicit’ Iran-linked vessels anywhere on the high seas. The move follows Sunday’s major boarding of an Iranian-flagged vessel, when a US warship opened fire as it attempted to transit the strait, striking and damaging the engine room.

CENTCOM: Overnight, U.S. forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani without incident in the INDOPACOM area of responsibility. https://twitter.com/DeptofWar/status/2046544038812156177

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They have no new cards. But they can say they do.

• Iran Promises To ‘Reveal New Cards On The Battlefield’ (RT)

Iranian officials have struck a defiant tone ahead of a possible new round of talks with Washington, warning that Tehran has prepared to “reveal new cards on the battlefield” while rejecting any negotiations conducted “under the shadow of threats.” Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused US President Donald Trump of trying to turn negotiations into “a table of surrender” and said Iran had spent the past two weeks preparing new military options.


“Trump, by imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire, seeks to turn this negotiating table – in his own imagination – into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering. We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the past two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield,” Ghalibaf wrote on X.] Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, meanwhile, said the “non-constructive and contradictory” conduct of US officials sent the message that Washington was seeking Iran’s surrender, adding that Iranians “will not bow to coercion.”

The temporary ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, is set to expire on Wednesday, after the first round of talks in Islamabad last weekend failed to produce a breakthrough and Trump imposed a US military blockade of Iranian ports. Trump warned on Sunday that if Iran doesn’t accept Washington’s “fair and reasonable deal,” the US is going to “knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge, in Iran.”

The US president initially announced the second round of talks for Monday, and the White House reportedly spent the day waiting for confirmation that Tehran would send its negotiating team. Axios reported later in the day that US Vice President J.D. Vance, alongside Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, was expected to leave for Islamabad by Tuesday morning.

According to Axios, Iranian negotiators had been stalling amid reported pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to take a harder line and refuse talks unless the US first ends its blockade. The report claimed that Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators had urged Tehran to attend, and that Iran’s team allegedly received a green light from the supreme leader on Monday night.

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‘Maximalist’ demands means: NO nuclear activity. Trump will not give that up.

• Iran: US Must Retract ‘Maximalist’ Nuclear Demands for Talks to Proceed (ET)

Iran is not ready to hold another set of peace talks with U.S. representatives until President Donald Trump backs off from his “maximalist” stance on Iran’s nuclear activity, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh said on April 18. During a visit to Turkey on Saturday, Khatibzadeh told reporters that there needs to be a clear “framework of understanding” for peace talks to proceed. The Iranian official offered the comment with just days left on a two-week ceasefire that began on April 7.


Vice President JD Vance had led a U.S. delegation in a 21-hour round of talks with Iranian representatives on April 11, but the talks ended without a deal. At the time, Vance said the sticking point had been Iran’s refusal to clearly swear off the pursuit of nuclear weapons. Tehran has denied it’s pursuing nuclear weapons, however, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Iran has about 970 pounds of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity—a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90 percent. As he spoke with reporters on Saturday, Khatibzadeh said Iran would not agree to stricter limits on nuclear activity than those expected of other countries under existing international standards.

“The other side should abandon its maximalist position and should respect international law, within which we can then secure diplomacy,” Khatibzadeh said. “I have to be very crystal clear that Iran would not accept to be an exception from the international law.” Earlier this week, Trump raised the prospect of a second round of weekend peace talks. As he spoke with reporters on Saturday, Khatibzadeh said no date would be set for such talks until there is a baseline agreement between Washington and Tehran. U.S. forces bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025. Since then, there has been speculation about whether stockpiles of highly enriched uranium may still be trapped under the rubble at these damaged nuclear facilities.

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Not so far. Too deadly.

• Are We Seeing the Makings of an Iranian Civil War? (Eric Florack)

Much has been made of the on-again, off-again negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. The claim here in the States from a few under-informed individuals is that Donald Trump was lying to us about the status and that he doesn’t know what he’s doing, yada, yada, you know the drill. Of course, it’s untrue, but I want to take a few minutes this morning to explain why it’s untrue. The Islamic Regime in Iran is engineering its own destruction. The reason amounts to a civil war in Iran. To understand why, you must first understand what the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) actually is — and isn’t. Over the last few weeks, I’ve been studying the IRGC, its makeup, and its original purpose, as well as who controls it in the end.


With that understanding, we can have a better idea of the reason behind the on-again, off-again blockade situation we’ve seen over the last several days.Let’s bust a widely held misunderstanding right out of the gate. The IRGC is not a conventional military. Its founders did not build it to defend Iran’s borders. They built it in 1979 with a specific mandate: protect the Islamic Revolution and the clerical regime’s ideological order, suppress internal dissent, and project what they called “revolutionary power” across the region. The BBC called it a “business empire” back in 2010 — and that description still holds. The IRGC answers to no elected official. It reports directly to the Supreme Leader, bypassing the defense ministry and the civilian government entirely.

The IRGC commands land, naval, and missile forces, plus the Quds Force — the arm that funds, arms, and directs allied militias like Hezbollah and the Houthis. It also controls the Basij, a paramilitary force whose sole purpose is to keep Iran’s civilian population in line. The widespread killing of Iranian civilians over the past month is the Basij at work. As you may have picked up, the entire idea of the IRGC is permanent resistance and interference of the West, which, by the nature of the thing, includes the United States and Israel. That last point is the very reason for its existence. Absent that, the IRGC wouldn’t have any reason to exist at all.

Militarily, the IRGC is built for asymmetric warfare — an idea those of us who lived through Vietnam would recognize immediately. It is not designed for the swift, overwhelming force that conventional militaries such as our own pursue. It is designed to make any conflict long, painful, and costly. Threatening regional stability and choking energy flows isn’t a side effect of IRGC strategy — it is the strategy. The IRGC runs a parallel power structure inside Iran, and it answers to no one but the Supreme Leader. In that position and by design, it controls perhaps 40% of Iran’s economy. Say, construction companies, Telcom nets, and oil, to name a few items. I suppose that in some business sense, the IRGC is comparable to the East India Company.

With all that in mind, let’s turn to a piece in the Jerusalem Post from March 29: “Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian is reportedly clashing with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) chief Ahmad Vahidi over the economic and social impact of the war with the United States and Israel, Iran International reported on Saturday, citing Iranian sources. According to the London-based Iranian opposition outlet, Pezeshkian criticized the IRGC’s approach of increasing tensions in the region and attacking neighbouring countries, warning of the long-term effects that these movements could cause on the Iranian economy.

The report also mentioned that Pezeshkian has been demanding that executive decisions regarding the war be made by the Iranian government rather than the IRGC, a demand Vahidi did not accept. In response, the IRGC criticized Pezeshkian’s inability to implement structural reforms in the Islamic Republic to address several problems within the system before the current war began. The report comes as Iran’s already dying economy keeps being pushed toward full collapse after several weeks of war.

So this tells us many things. Among them, the civilian government is, and has been bucking the IRGC, with somewhat less than complete success. So we see that when Iranian President Pezeshkian, who seems, as a rule, more pragmatic than the IRGC, signaled he’s ready to be reasonable and will negotiate, the IRGC didn’t follow along, but rather launched a war against Iran’s civilian government. It is the IRGC who have been working against every diplomatic channel that Pezeshkian has been trying to open.

He’s not hiding by any means. Within the last 72 hours, Pezeshkian has been seen delivering a speech at Iran’s Ministry of Sports and Youth in Tehran, where he addressed the ongoing conflict with the US and stated that Iran is seeking to end the war “with dignity.” He’s also been in conference with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, ostensibly to discuss the current war. Both Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have been at the center of reported internal tensions with the IRGC. It is the IRGC that’s been contradicting both Pezeshkian and Araghchi on the negotiations over Hormuz. Now, just because Pezeshkian seems more reasonable than the IRGC in some senses, doesn’t mean he’s not saying publicly things the IRGC wants him to say:

Iran is seeking to end the war with the US and Iran “with dignity,” the country’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said Sunday, arguing that US President Donald Trump has no right to deprive Tehran of its nuclear rights, Anadolu reports. “Trump says Iran should not use its nuclear rights, but does not explain what crime Iran has committed,” Pezeshkian said during a visit to Iran’s Sports and Youth Ministry, the ISNA news agency reported. He also called for the nation to stand “firm against a bloodthirsty and brutal enemy.”Iran must manage the current atmosphere in a way that “does not portray us as war-mongers” as “we are defending ourselves,” he added.

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“Promethean Action Provides..” The elderly ladies are becoming a force.

The photo I’ve seen 5 times now. so here it is…

• Perspective on Iran Conflict and Latest Intel Efforts to Disrupt Trump (CTH)

Promethean Action – Barbara Boyd previews renewed Iran peace negotiations in Islamabad ahead of a ceasefire deadline, as Iran allegedly challenged a U.S. naval blockade, lost a ship, and again closed the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump warning “No More Mr. Nice guy” if peace fails and arguing Iran is bleeding $500 million a day. She shows a City of London–linked propaganda network is working to prolong the war and damage Trump before the midterms by targeting Vice President JD Vance, citing a Financial Times column by Edward Luce and post–Munich Security Conference smears portraying Vance as pro-Putin.

Boyd outlines three layers of Iran-linked messaging—Press TV in London, NIAC in Washington, and the “Iran Experts Initiative” infiltration of U.S. think tanks—and says justice is coming via prosecutions led by Joseph DiGenova, with Kash Patel promising arrests, while Vance leads talks and a National Fraud Task Force.

PRESIDENT TRUMP – “I’m winning a War, BY A LOT, things are going very well, our Military has been amazing and, if you read the Fake News, like The Failing New York Times, the absolutely horrendous and disgusting Wall Street Journal, or the now almost defunct, fortunately, Washington Post, you would actually think we are losing the War.

The enemy is confused, because they get these same Media “reports,” and yet they realize their Navy has been completely wiped out, their Air Force has gone onto darker runways, they have no Anti Missile or Anti Airplane Equipment, their former leaders are mostly gone (This has been, in addition to everything else, Regime Change!), and perhaps, most important of all, THE BLOCKADE, which we will not take off until there is a “DEAL,” is absolutely destroying Iran. They are losing $500 Million Dollars a day, an unsustainable number, even in the short run. The Anti-America Fake News Media is rooting for Iran to win, but it’s not going to happen, because I’m in charge! Just like these unpatriotic people used every ounce of their limited strength to fight me in the Election, they continue to do so with Iran. The result will be the same — It already is!” ~ President DONALD J. TRUMP.

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“Counsel to the Attorney General, has a nice ring to it.”

• It Is, After All, the Department of Justice (CTH)

Joe diGenova sworn in.


“It is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbled, or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena; whose face is marred by the dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming; who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions and spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly; so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory or defeat.”
~Theodore Roosevelt

Counsel to the Attorney General, has a nice ring to it.

Heavenly Father, strengthen us when we feel weak and weary. Grant us perseverance to face challenges with courage and determination. Help us to trust in Your guidance, remain steadfast in our faith, and overcome every obstacle that comes our way. Fill our heart with confidence and resilience, allowing us to stay focused on our goals. May Your power flow through us so that we may achieve success that honors You and fulfills the purpose You have established for our life and this mission. Lord of righteousness, strengthen our faith so that we do not become discouraged, nor act impulsively. Grant us focus, discipline and energy so that every accomplishment can be a reflection of Your guidance. May every step we take align with Your will, and may patience guide us to sustain success with honor, fidelity and stewardship. Amen

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Memo newly declassified by DNI Gabbard shows concerns about integrity of American voting were far greater than the public was told by previous administrations. Evidence emerged that China had gained access to voter registration data in multiple states and had even sent fake driver’s licenses to the United States in a bid to help Joe Biden win the election, officials said.

• US Intel Secretly Flagged Major 2020 Election Vulnerabilities (JTN)

Months before the 2020 presidential election, U.S. intelligence issued a secret but stark warning that foreign adversaries had the capability to “compromise” America’s voting infrastructure and raised specific concerns about the vulnerability of voter registration databases that later would be penetrated by China and Iran, a newly declassified memo obtained by Just the News shows. The National Intelligence Council’s (NIC) concerns were so extensive that officials personally briefed President Donald Trump at the White House in February 2020, according to photos obtained by Just the News showing top CIA, FBI and Homeland Security officials joining with NIC analysts to inform the president.


But the American public was never fully alerted, even after evidence emerged that China had gained access to voter registration data in multiple states and had even sent fake driver’s licenses to the United States in a bid to help Joe Biden win the election, officials said. “We judge that US adversaries, including, at a minimum, Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, as well as non-state groups, have the capability to compromise US election infrastructure for the 2020 presidential election,” the NIC wrote in the memo dated Jan. 15, 2020.

“Adversaries gaining access to US election-related systems could disrupt the voting process, steal sensitive data, or undermine confidence in the election results, but we do not know whether any of them have specific plans to manipulate election-related systems,” the memo added. The document was recently declassified by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who continues to expose examples of the intelligence community suppressing or misusing intelligence. Though officials say that an ongoing second Trump administration investigation has found no evidence yet that vote-counting machines were directly compromised in the 2020 election, the memo shows how such machines could be vulnerable to intrusions in the future and made clear that the voter registration databases that were breached by China and Iran were easy targets.

American voting system more vulnerable to intrusion than acknowledged
The memo, prepared by then-NationaI Intelligence for Cyber Christopher Porter, has become part of a broader body of evidence showing America’s election systems are more vulnerable to hacks, breaches and manipulations than previously acknowledged.After the 2020 election, many senior Intelligence Community officials insisted on the historical security of the 2020 election and downplayed concerns about such vulnerabilities.

Krebs: “The 2020 election was the most secure in U.S. history.”
For example, the members of the Election Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council Executive Committee released a mid-November 2020 joint statement declaring that “the November 3rd election was the most secure in American history.” One of the officials who sat on that committee, Chris Krebs, the director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, testified to the Senate after the election that he “approved CISA’s publication of a joint statement from the election security community, reflecting that community’s consensus that the 2020 election was the most secure in U.S. history.”

Krebs has been accused by the Trump White House of being “a significant bad-faith actor who weaponized and abused his government authority. Krebs’ misconduct involved the censorship of disfavored speech implicating the 2020 election and COVID-19 pandemic.”

Porter: “It is no secret that China and Iran compromise election equipment for a variety of intelligence purposes”
But Porter told Just the News those assurances did not reflect the government’s assessment of just how vulnerable America’s election infrastructure was. Iran and China did gain access eventually to voter registration data, but those breaches were suppressed until November 2021, when Iranian hackers were indicted, and March 2026 when Just the News obtained the first declassified documents acknowledging Beijing’s penetration of voter registration data.

[..] Intelligence community had disdain for the “vulgarian” Trump
In January 2021, the Intelligence Community analytic ombudsman — tasked with ensuring objectivity in intelligence products — conducted a review of the spy community’s handling of Russian and Chinese meddling efforts during the 2020 election. He concluded that intelligence analysts downplayed China’s actions because they had disdain for the “vulgarian” Trump and did not want to support the policies and priorities of the Trump administration toward China with which they “personally disagree,” Just the News reported last month.

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“..the Obama-Clinton-Kerry Iranian deal likely included a mechanism for return payments to U.S. officials following the release of billions in frozen Iranian asset funds and the loosening of sanctions “

• Spygate, Russiagate, IC Impeachment, Jack Smith Targeting and Lawfare (CTH)

In the next few days, much more about the overall investigative review underway in Florida will likely begin to surface. The review has been led by USAO Jason A. Reding Quiñones, a federal prosecutor for the Southern District of Florida. Quinones is now supported by Counsel to the AG, Joe diGenova. As with all investigations containing multiple players and actors, the first investigative information is extracted from testimony by those furthest away from the principals, yet closest to the granular details of the events being reviewed. The questioning then goes upstream, using information collected to assemble more specific questions as the principal players are approached.


The widest concentric circles are questioned first. Then, using the responses and investigative information from that circle, the questioning and inquiry goes to the next inner circle of participants. The information is assembled, and more pointed questions are then targeted to the next inner circle; the process continues until the core is questioned. Beginning with the end in mind, the biggest challenge is knowing what the correct questions are to ask of those who were closest to the corrupt activity (the outer circle). Background research then becomes critical. From those pointed questions you get answers. Then, next level of more specific questions get focus, and so on, and so on.

On March 20, 2026, James Comey was subpoenaed. Also remember, there are two distinct and different aspects to the overall conspiracy and timeline. nThere was surveillance of the 2016 Republican candidates by contractors working on behalf of the FBI who was institutionally collaborating with the Clinton campaign; that is known as “Spygate.” There was then an FBI operation to target and eliminate the threat represented by the 2016 GOP primary winner, Donald Trump; that is known as “Russiagate.” ‘Spygate’ and ‘Russiagate’ are two distinctly different corrupt pathways that eventually merged due to common interests.

The Mueller investigation, an extension of Crossfire Hurricane (Russiagate) was used by Obama-era politicians and internal government officials as a mechanism to block President Trump from executing a divergent foreign policy. The primary policy of focus was to protect the Obama era operations, including the Iran deal. Based on mounting evidence, a pattern in other international activities and U.S. participants, the Obama-Clinton-Kerry Iranian deal likely included a mechanism for return payments to U.S. officials following the release of billions in frozen Iranian asset funds and the loosening of sanctions – (ie. pallets of cash). Qatar was the mediator/broker.

However, it is speculated, perhaps being evidenced, that return payments to the Obama team contained a timing mechanism, and the quid-pro-quo payments were stopped after President Trump withdrew from the Iran deal and re-instituted sanctions. Thus, a much larger background context exists for why the totality of the U.S. government and Intelligence Community opposed President Donald Trump. Is it all about the money? Time will tell. Current events may not be coincidental.

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Where Marco has free rein.

• US, Cuban Regime Confirm ‘Secret’ Talks in Havana (Sarah Anderson)

On April 10, something happened in Cuba that hasn’t happened in a decade: a U.S. government plane touched down outside of Guantánamo Bay. We have confirmation of this from the Cuban regime via their official Communist Party propaganda newspaper, Granma. Several media outlets, including Fox News, CNN, and the Miami Herald, are also confirming it, based on statements from unnamed senior State Department officials. The State Department delegation — supposedly made up of assistant or deputy-level officials but not Marco Rubio himself — reportedly warned the Cuban regime that it has a very short window in which to make a deal, which supposedly includes releasing political prisoners and making major economic and political reforms.


“As President [Donald] Trump has stated, a new dawn for Cuba is coming very soon. The Cuban regime should stop playing games as direct talks are occurring. They have a small window to make a deal,” a State Department official told the Miami Herald. Some outlets are reporting that the talks included compensation for U.S. citizens and companies whose properties were confiscated after the 1959 revolution, allowing Elon Musk’s Starlink into Cuba (it’s currently illegal to use there), and discussion of the threat of foreign military and terrorist groups being allowed to operate freely in the island nation.

Allegedly, a separate meeting was held with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, Raúl Castro’s grandson who goes by “Raulito” or “El Cangrejo” (the crab). While Rubio has never confirmed it that I’m aware of, some media outlets report that this is not the first time a team from the State Department has met with the younger Castro. And, of course, the Cuban regime tells a different story. Deputy Director General for U.S. Affairs Alejandro García del Toro told Granma that the meeting was “respectful and professional,” but denies that were any conditions, like political prisoners, or deadlines set by the United States. He also called it a “delicate matter” that is being handled “discreetly.”

“Eliminating the energy blockade against the country was a matter of top priority for our delegation. This act of economic coercion is an unjustified punishment for the entire Cuban population,” he said. The Miami Herald reports that a U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone was flying near Havana during the meeting, though I’ve noted that happening on other days last week, as well. Basically, the regime is attempting to paint this as normal diplomacy between two countries. But we all know it’s not. Regardless of what was actually discussed, Trump has made it pretty clear that he’s got his eye on making a change in Cuba soon. Assuming all of this is true, I believe he and Rubio are testing them to determine what the next steps are once we’re not so distracted with Iran.

As I reported over the weekend, on Friday, while speaking at a Turning Point USA rally, Trump said, “And very soon, this great strength will also bring about a day 70 years in waiting — it’s called a new dawn in Cuba. We’re going to help them out with Cuba. We have a lot of great Cuban-Americans… that were brutally treated, whose families were killed, and now, watch what happens.” Later, while aboard Air Force One, a reporter asked him about anonymous reports that the Pentagon is ramping up plans for military action against Cuba. “Well, it depends on what your definition of military action is,” the president said, not giving much away.

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“.. a “constellation that every smartphone, every ship, every aircraft and every missile guidance system on Earth depends on. SpaceX might just call it “Tuesday.”

• The Space Launch Industry Is in Big Trouble… Except for You-Know-Who (Green)

“Early this morning, SpaceX launched the final GPS III satellite in our constellation, the most advanced GPS satellites ever built,” Space Force Gen. Chance Saltzman announced on Tuesday. It’s the finishing touch, as Chronos Intelligence explained, in a “constellation that every smartphone, every ship, every aircraft and every missile guidance system on Earth depends on. SpaceX might just call it “Tuesday.” Elon Musk’s launch company is about to raise tens of billions in the biggest-ever IPO on its way to easily top a $1 trillion valuation — and no wonder. This morning’s Space Force mission was its 48th Falcon 9 launch of the year (with a 100% success rate) and on track to roughly match last year’s record-breaking launch cadence.


Meanwhile, the company is making final preparations for the next flight test of the massive Starship rocket that will not only make the Falcon 9 obsolete, but every other rocket in the world. But I’m not here today to praise Musk or SpaceX. I just needed to set the stage to show you how the competition is performing. Or not. Because Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance (ULA) are having a rough time. Blue Origin whiffed a major New Glenn mission on Sunday, putting a $30 million AST SpaceMobile cellular satellite into the wrong orbit. Bluebird 7 is so low that it lacks enough onboard fuel to boost itself to its proper orbit, and will have to be de-orbited as a total loss. AST SpaceMobile shares were down sharply on Monday and have yet to fully recover.

BO touted the launch as a success — they did recover the booster, which is always impressive. And the booster was partially reused, which is even more impressive. But the mission was a failure, and celebrating that is not a good look. New Glenn is “likely grounded for four months” to investigate what went wrong with the upper stage, according to Next Big Future’s Brian Wang. Meanwhile, ULA’s Vulcan workhorse — well, sort of — is grounded following two Northrop Grumman solid rocket booster failures. Folks, space is too big and too important for the United States of America to have just one reliable launch provider. True story.

SpaceX successfully landed an orbital launch vehicle — the now-venerable Falcon 9 — in late 2015. Just 15 months later, in early 2017, the company successfully re-flew a “flight proven” Falcon 9. Here we are, more than nine years later, and Blue Origin is only now becoming the second company anywhere in the world to master reusable rockets. I watched those early SpaceX efforts in total amazement, and not just because one of my closest friends was an actual rocket surgeon at ULA. Ed was very good at his job and had the bonus checks for nailing satellite orbital placement to prove it. So I asked him one time why ULA wasn’t looking into reusability.

“We did look into it, we’re not idiots,” he said. “We’re good engineers. We could do it, but the economics didn’t work out.” Making a rocket reusable comes with tradeoffs, and ULA didn’t see enough demand for lift to make those compromises financially worthwhile. SpaceX created Starlink, which generates the demand and the cash flow to keep the company ahead of the competition. My friend was right that ULA had plenty of engineering talent, but the corporate management lacked imagination.

Because, as the country’s only major launch company for so long, ULA didn’t need imaginative management — they just needed the next NASA or Pentagon launch. And those were basically guaranteed at the slow-but-steady cadence that the company’s disposable Atlas and Delta rockets could deliver. For what it’s worth, not long after that conversation, ULA “voluntold” engineering graybeards like my friend — actually guys as young as their early 50s — to retire. I couldn’t tell you for sure that retiring the most experienced engineering talent is directly responsible for ULA’s current woes, but there’s more than enough room there for conjecture.

ULA’s busiest year was 2016 with a total of 16 launches. After that, the company began transitioning to the troubled Vulcan Centaur rocket, which launched just five times in 2025, and is currently “paused” while Northrop Grumman works out issues with the solid rocket boosters — after a decade of development and transition. SpaceX conducted 165 Falcon 9 launches in 2025 with a 100% success rate.

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“The incoming PM has pledged to stop Budapest’s withdrawal from the ICC, which has an active warrant for the Israeli leader..”

• Hungary’s Magyar Warns Netanyahu of Arrest (RT)

Hungary’s incoming prime minister, Peter Magyar, has said he would order the arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he enters the country, marking a sharp reversal of predecessor Viktor Orban’s policy. Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Magyar said he would halt Hungary’s withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC), initiated by Orban, and stressed that as a member state Budapest is legally obliged to enforce its arrest warrants. The ICC issued warrants for Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.


Israel claimed earlier this week that Magyar had spoken with Netanyahu and invited him to visit Hungary after his Tisza party’s landslide win on April 12. Asked to clarify, Magyar confirmed the call but downplayed the invitation, saying he had spoken with multiple leaders and broadly invited them to attend an upcoming anniversary of the 1956 popular uprising. He added that Netanyahu was informed Hungary would seek to remain in the ICC – and what that implies.

“I made it clear to the Israeli prime minister that we are not stepping back [from the ICC]. It is the Tisza government’s intention to stop this and for Hungary to remain a member,” Magyar said. “So I think I didn’t mislead anyone. If a country is a member of the ICC and if a person who is wanted enters that country’s territory, they must be taken into custody… I assume that every state and government leader is aware of these regulations.”

Magyar’s position marks a direct break with the stance of the outgoing government, which rejected the ICC’s jurisdiction and guaranteed Netanyahu safe passage. Orban dismissed the warrant as “brazen and cynical.” Last April, Budapest moved to withdraw from the ICC, arguing the court had become politicized. The country’s parliament approved the move in May, though under the Rome Statute withdrawal only takes effect a year after formal UN notification, currently set for June 2.

Magyar campaigned on repairing ties with Brussels and unlocking more than €16 billion ($19 billion) in EU funds for Hungary currently frozen due to rule-of-law and corruption allegations. Since his victory, Magyar has also pledged to reform state media, consider Eurozone membership, and end vetoes on Ukraine aid – though with caveats. He backed Hungary’s opt-out from the EU’s €90 billion loan package to Kiev, citing budget constraints, and said Ukraine’s EU accession within a decade is unrealistic.

At Monday’s press conference, he also urged Kiev to reopen the Russian Druzhba pipeline and said Hungary would not accept “any kind of blackmail” over energy supplies. He previously said Budapest would continue buying Russian energy, prioritize the cheapest oil, and signaled he would “pick up” if Russian President Vladimir Putin called.

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“Europe’s five largest countries — Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and Poland — all recorded BEV growth above 40% year-to-date.”

If the EVs were Peugeots and BMWs, easy peasy. But they’re Chinese and Tesla, I think.

• Europe EV Sales Jump 51% As Iran War Sends Gasoline Prices Soaring (Paraskova)

Registrations of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in Europe’s key automotive markets surged by 51% in March as the Iran war pushed gasoline prices to multi-year highs, data published by research firm New Automotive and trade association E-Mobility Europe showed on Monday. More than 224,000 new electric passenger cars were registered in March alone across 15 key EU + EFTA markets, the analysis found. These sales accounted for as much as 22% of all new passenger car sales across the key European markets.


In another sign that expensive gasoline is pushing drivers to EVs, European Union member states registered more than 500,000 new electric cars in the first quarter of 2026, a surge of 33.5% compared to the same period last year, the data showed. New BEV registrations accelerated across every major EU market in the first quarter of 2026. Europe’s five largest countries — Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and Poland — all recorded BEV growth above 40% year-to-date. Europe’s biggest car market, Germany, saw a rebound in EV sales after the introduction of new incentives, with around one in four cars registered in March fully electric – a 42% year-to-date jump, according to the data. Italy’s BEV registrations soared by 65% year-to-date, boosting the EV market share to 8.6% in March from about 5% as of the end of 2025.

France continued to lead among large markets with a 28% BEV share in March, underpinned by its social leasing scheme, and nearly 50% year-to-date growth. Energy security was the catalyst for change in driver choice in recent weeks, analysts at New Automotive and E-Mobility Europe say. “At a time when energy security has moved to the top of the political agenda, the EV transition is delivering real and measurable resilience,” commented Ben Nelmes, CEO of New Automotive. “The pace of change we’re now seeing across major European markets — including countries like Italy and Poland that were slower to start — suggests the transition has entered a new phase.”

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https://twitter.com/robertdunlap947/status/2046330432514355702?s=20 https://twitter.com/argosaki/status/2046475300960391255?s=20

 

 

 

 

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Debt Rattle April 14 2026

Apr 142026
 
 April 14, 2026  Posted by at 9:53 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , ,  55 Responses »


Thomas Cole The Course of Empire – The Consummation of Empire 1836


• How Iran’s Mosaic Doctrine Is Fracturing (Zineb Riboua)
• The IRGC’s Seven Fatal Strategic Mistakes (Zineb Riboua)
• To Blockade or Not Blockade, That Is the Question. (Scott Pinsker)
• US Allies Loudly Reject Trump’s Scheme To Blockade Hormuz (ZH)
• Fill’er Up: Trump’s Middle East Master Plan (Stephen Green)
• US Military to Enforce Embargo of What No One Is Supposed to Be Buying (CTH)
• As the Worms Turn (James Howard Kunstler)
• Magyar Beats Orban In Battle For Hungary: What Happens Now? (RT)
• Atkinson Transcripts and Background ICIG Investigative Documents Released (CTH)
• Bank of Russia Disputes Freeze of Assets by EU (TASS)
• Trump Reportedly Planning Mass Pardons Of Administration Officials (ZH)
• White House: ‘Era of Amnesty Is Over’ (Catherine Salgado)

 


 

https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2043465286423040010?s=20 https://twitter.com/QuantumGuard17/status/2043330005174788222?s=20 https://twitter.com/RealDonKeith/status/2043690895120216186?s=20

 


 

 


 


It can be hard to get reliable information about a far-away war. This looks promising.

Zineb Riboua is a Moroccan Berber who works at the Hudson Institute.

“Iran’s military defeat is in plain sight”


“Zineb Riboua is a research fellow with Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East. She specializes in Chinese and Russian involvement.”

• How Iran’s Mosaic Doctrine Is Fracturing (Zineb Riboua)

Following President Trump’s announcement of a cease-fire, US Central Command (CENTCOM) commander Admiral Brad Cooper stated: “Iran has suffered a generational military defeat.” Tehran’s response has been a single counterargument: the Islamic Republic still stands. That argument mistakes the question. The survival of the Islamic Republic is not in dispute. What is in dispute is whether the surviving entity retains the capacity to direct the forces operating in its name.


Iran developed its mosaic military doctrine by drawing direct lessons from Saddam Hussein’s collapse in just twenty-six days. After the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Iranian Brigadier General Mohammad Ali Jafari reorganized the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in 2008 into thirty-one provincial commands, each with its own weapons stockpiles, logistics chains and pre-delegated authority. Asymmetric warfare is the recourse of states that cannot prevail conventionally. Dispersion and concealment are the tools of a military that has already conceded the conventional battlefield.

Israel, operating alongside the United States in Operation Epic Fury, mastered asymmetric tactics and turned Iran’s own doctrine against it, employing intelligence penetration, targeted eliminations and network disruption with superior precision. The clearest demonstration came before the operation began. In July 2024, Israel assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh inside a Revolutionary Guard guesthouse in Tehran. Iran’s security services must now operate under the assumption that they do not know the extent of the compromise and that uncertainty is the most debilitating condition an intelligence service can face. Operation Epic Fury then pushed that penetration to its extreme.

The killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the elimination of hundreds of senior IRGC commanders and the degradation of the Quds Force’s extraterritorial capacity together constituted a decapitation campaign of unprecedented precision. More importantly, fractures between Iran’s political leadership and its military have already surfaced publicly. On March 7, 2026, President Masoud Pezeshkian issued a televised apology to Arab Gulf states for missile and drone strikes conducted during the conflict, pledging that further attacks would cease. That a sitting president apologized for his own military’s actions within minutes of their execution illustrates precisely what pre-delegated authority has produced: a military that the political leadership must answer for rather than control.

Three vulnerabilities now compound one another. The first is the mosaic doctrine’s foundational limitation under sustained pressure. The doctrine solved the problem that Saddam could not, preventing decapitation from producing immediate collapse. It never solved attrition. The mosaic delays the timeline of dissolution but leaves the dissolution itself intact. The cease-fire arrived at a moment of Iranian weakness, and the pressure that produced that weakness remains available to Washington. The Islamic Republic knows that each day the cease-fire holds, it does so on terms that Washington can revise. The second vulnerability is structural.

The mosaic doctrine distributed resilience horizontally across provincial land commands, but the IRGC’s functional branches — its navy, air force, missile corps and cyber and intelligence directorates — each represent a distinct accumulation of “tiles” with separate supply chains and command structures.The United States has dismantled these branches sequentially rather than simultaneously, degrading each functional pillar while removing leadership at the center. The result is a system weakening from two directions at once: horizontal provincial networks loses coherence as the vertical command spine collapses, and neither compensates for the deterioration of the other.

The third vulnerability is financial, and the most immediately exposing. The IRGC’s ability to sustain operations and evade sanctions has depended on Hezbollah and the broader proxy network to move money and provide the transactional infrastructure linking the center to the periphery. That system has been degraded. Iran’s shadow fleet — the network of vessels moving sanctioned oil through falsified documentation and ship-to-ship transfers — has faced intensified US interdiction. China-linked front companies that provided financial cover to the IRGC have been sanctioned in successive rounds by the US Treasury.

On March 31, dozens of money changers linked to the IRGC were arrested across the United Arab Emirates following the escalation of Gulf tensions after Iranian strikes, severing one of the regime’s most critical cash arteries. A network that cannot pay its operators does not remain in a network for long. Washington enters the cease-fire holding all the cards: military dominance, financial strangulation and a regional architecture that has isolated Tehran from the Arab world it once sought to mobilize.

Iran’s response has been to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, the final lever a regime reaches for when it has exhausted all others. That threat is a measure of desperation, not strength. The operation has not concluded, but the conditions for Iranian defeat are in place. The entity that emerges from what comes next will bear little resemblance to the Islamic Republic that launched its doctrine of resistance four decades ago. What remains depends entirely on whether Tehran meets Trump’s terms.

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Zineb Riboua from last week. “Seven critical miscalculations have left the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reeling, while U.S. and regional forces tighten their grip.”

• The IRGC’s Seven Fatal Strategic Mistakes (Zineb Riboua)

The first strategic mistake was the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s logic was that sustained pressure on global energy flows would ignite the markets and force Trump to recalculate, withdraw, or watch the Gulf states turn against American operations out of economic self-preservation. But Trump has publicly declared that opening the strait is “not for us,” instead calling on European allies who rely on the strait to “go get your own oil.” His threat on Sunday to bomb Iranian power plants made it even more clear that the strait’s closure will not cause an American retreat.


These declarations carried a meaning beyond the immediate military context. Trump is running two operations simultaneously: one against the IRGC, and one against the assumption that the United States will indefinitely underwrite regional security at its own expense. His threats to leave NATO, vow to send the IRGC back to the stone age, and triumphalist mid-operation address thanking Gulf partners for their support are not the improvisations of an undisciplined communicator. They are the deliberate signaling of a strategic repositioning, designed to press allies into assuming greater responsibility abroad. The operation itself is a demonstration of what American military power can accomplish when it decides to act without hesitation.

Trump is also using the Strait of Hormuz crisis to accelerate something the administration has sought from the beginning: a Middle East in which American allies assume primary responsibility for their own neighborhood, freeing Washington to concentrate its strategic attention on the Western Hemisphere. Burden sharing was long treated as a European conversation about defense spending. The Strait of Hormuz has just expanded the terms of that project to the entire Eastern hemisphere by including Gulf countries as well.

The Hormuz gambit has also alienated Beijing, which is losing patience with Iran’s active disruptions to Chinese energy supply lines. The purpose of any military operation is to improve your own posture or degrade the enemy’s calculus in your favor. The IRGC achieved neither, and in the attempt, accelerated its own isolation on every front simultaneously.

The second strategic mistake was time. The IRGC likely assumed that Trump’s stated desire for speed signaled an appetite for a fast exit, and that the organization could survive by dragging out negotiations, delaying any serious accommodation, and outlasting American political resolve through attrition. But time cannot be purchased in a war where American strikes are hitting command and control infrastructure at its foundations and frontline units are receiving no meaningful replenishment. The IRGC has made a career of mistaking American restraint for American weakness, and the cost of that error is now being denominated in destroyed batteries, dead commanders, and a command architecture that grows less coherent with each successive wave of strikes.

The third strategic mistake was tempo. In nearly every crisis in the past two decades, the IRGC’s strategy has been to control the pace of escalation with its adversaries, calibrate pressure, and determine when and how confrontations would intensify or recede. But that model depends on a predictable opponent. Trump has demolished that predictability, and the range of American military options—from additional carrier groups and Marine landing forces to airborne troops and an ever-expanding list of targets—have multiplied more quickly than the IRGC can adapt. As Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said last week, “Our adversary right now thinks there are 15 different ways we could come at them with boots on the ground. And guess what? There are.” The IRGC now finds itself reactive, off-balance, and unable to dictate the terms of the next exchange.

The fourth strategic mistake was overestimating its capacity to reinvigorate the Arab world against a joint American and Israeli operation. The IRGC’s regional theory of legitimacy rested on the proposition that Arab populations in the Middle East could be mobilized against American and Israeli military action in ways that would constrain Gulf rulers and force them to distance themselves from Washington. But the Abraham Accords architecture has proven more durable than Tehran anticipated, and the Arab street has failed to materialize as a meaningful strategic variable in any theater that mattered.

The fifth strategic mistake was information warfare. We’ve seen this play out before. After October 7, Hamas and Hezbollah seeded social media with fabricated footage, manufacturing narratives of resistance among Western audiences. But the illusion of battlefield success became an internal liability, feeding a leadership culture in which accurate damage assessments were suppressed in favor of narratives that preserved morale at the expense of strategic clarity. The IRGC is repeating the pattern, trying to win the battle of public opinion even as it loses the one on the ground.

The stakes are considerably higher this time, because the propaganda apparatus is operating against a backdrop of acute domestic crisis: runaway inflation, capital flight, water scarcity, and an economy in structural collapse. An organization that cannot accurately assess its own battlefield losses is even less equipped to reckon with the degree to which the Iranian population it claims to protect has already stopped believing in the institution meant to govern them.

The sixth strategic mistake was the assumption that China would serve as a meaningful backstop when the pressure became acute. Intelligence reporting indicates that Beijing has continued to provide data support to the IRGC, and Chinese technology remains embedded in what survives of Iran’s surveillance architecture. But this cannot compensate for the IRGC’s structural deterioration, and China appears unwilling to escalate its material support to a level that invites direct American economic retaliation. Thus, the IRGC is accumulating losses faster than any external partner is willing or able to replace them.

The seventh strategic mistake, and the one most structurally irreversible, was Iran’s decadeslong strategy to build its offensive and defensive architecture almost entirely around a proxy network that the U.S.-Israeli campaign has systematically dismantled. Hezbollah entered the current war already severely diminished from its 2024 confrontation with Israel, its leadership decimated and its southern Lebanon infrastructure severely damaged. The Syrian buffer that Iran spent years and billions of dollars constructing has collapsed entirely, and American and Israeli forces have degraded the Houthi operation in Yemen past the point of meaningful military utility.

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Q: Is blockade (also) a verb?

• To Blockade or Not Blockade, That Is the Question. (Scott Pinsker)

To be, or not to be, that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
And by opposing end them.
—William Shakespeare’s Hamlet


Nothin’ like a good existential crisis, eh? Because if you remember your high school English teacher (or used Cliff’s Notes; I’m not here to judge), Hamlet was asking whether it’s better to live or die. “To be, or not to be.” Which is the exact same question President Donald Trump wants Iran to consider: Make a deal and surrender your nuclear ambitions, “you crazy bastards,” or I’ll shoot you in the frickin’ head. The trouble is that Iran isn’t taking Trump seriously. For many reasons — most notably, self-preservation — the mullahs are incentivized to stall, drag their feet, and negotiate in bad faith because it accomplishes three things:

1) Communicates to the Iranian people that the regime is still strong and powerful. (Capitulating too quickly would communicate the opposite, risking rebellion.)
2) Increases the economic pain points in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. (The longer the conflict, the greater the financial chaos — and thus the political cost to Trump.)
3) With global sentiment/polls strongly opposing Israel and America, Iran’s negotiating position will grow stronger over time. (So the longer they wait, the more they’ll gain.)

This led to Iran seizing the Strait of Hormuz and blockading access. Which then led to Trump blockading their blockade with a blockade of his own. It’s a blockade of a blockade! We’ve gone from 4D chess to 4D blockades. Will it work? The New York Post says yes: “Trump Brilliantly Calls Iran’s Bluff — With His Own Strait of Hormuz Blockade” Whoever’s calling the shots in Iran wasted yet another chance for peace over the weekend, and now President Donald Trump will again call Tehran’s bluff.Iran’s negotiators refused to satisfy America’s demands Saturday in talks in Pakistan, as regime leaders bet that playing the Strait of Hormuz card would get Trump to blink. Instead, he played it right back at them — announcing his own blockade, so that Iran’s oil exports (which had continued despite the war) will also be blocked.

[…] They assumed America would be help captive by conventional wisdom; our president proved them wrong. Trump once again tried to reach a peaceful settlement; the Iranians again refused: Now they’ll pay yet a higher price for thinking they could get him to chicken out. Bloomberg says no: “The Hormuz Blockade Is a Throwdown the U.S. Can’t Win” For a man who understands the power of leverage, Donald Trump is being remarkably slow to recognize the influence Iran has gained in the Strait of Hormuz. The US president’s threat to complete its closure by blocking Iranian exports through it, too, is far more likely to drag him deeper into a politically damaging war than to force Tehran’s capitulation.

[…] [T]he president will at some point have to recognize some hard truths: He has not won yet, he does not have a clear military path to doing so and neither he, nor the global economy, can afford to keep Hormuz closed.

[…] For now the unfortunate reality is that the regime has “the whip hand,” as the former head of Britain’s MI6 Alex Younger put it last month. That isn’t because it is stronger than its enemies, but because it knows it can block Hormuz and is more willing to inflict the resulting economic pain on its own people than is Trump or other nations around the globe.The US administration needs to recognize it cannot hope to get a quick win in these circumstances, even if it blockades all trade with Iran through Hormuz.

Question for the readers: Which outlet is right and which one is wrong? Answer from the writer: Yes. The New York Post is correct: Trump’s blockade of a blockade deprives Iran of profiting from ransom payments and/or selling any oil, thus increasing its economic suffering. It weakens one of the mullah’s biggest bargaining chips. If you assume that Iran is negotiating in good faith, weakening the mullahs’ bargaining position makes tactical sense. But Bloomberg is also correct: It’s extraordinarily unlikely that Trump can blockade his way to victory, especially in the short term. More likely than not, the blockade would have to last months — if not years — to bear fruit, and for a candidate who ran on the platform of “no more forever wars,” that’s not an attractive option.

Besides, the economic pain will be shouldered unevenly, with the nations that actually care about the welfare of their people screaming far louder than the mullahs. Iran doesn’t mind suffering — as long as everyone else suffers, too. If you assume that Iran is negotiating in bad faith, a blockade of a blockade is an incremental tit-for-tat escalation that increases everyone’s pain points without bringing us any closer to a real solution. In other words, it’s a waste of time.

Perhaps a smarter strategy is to hit the mullahs with a threat they dread far more than a blockade. I’m talking about the two words that have horrified Americans since the Iraq War of the early 2000s: regime change. But not Iraqi-style regime change, where we plant U.S. soldiers overseas and try to build a new government from the ground up in a foreign land. That’s regime building, not regime change. I simply mean smashing the current regime.

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They’re proud of not securing their own energy. That won’t last.

• US Allies Loudly Reject Trump’s Scheme To Blockade Hormuz (ZH)

The United Kingdom and several other countries rejected Washington’s plan to impose a blockade on Iranian ports and target ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which has gone into effect Monday. Prime Minister Keir Starmer made clear his stance that “we are not supporting the blockade” in a fresh interview with BBC Radio. He emphasized that the UK is not “getting dragged in” to the US-Israeli war against Iran, but still stated that it’s “vital that we get the strait open and fully open.”


As fully expected Spain’s government also condemned the US move, with the country’s Defense Minister Margarita Robles having said, “It’s just another episode in this downward spiral we’ve slipped into,” adding that Trump and Netanyahu “want to impose rules on the international community, which is illogical.”Earlier we reported that France is working with the UK on a conference to organize a “strictly defensive” and “peaceful” mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

President Emmanuel Macron said, “As regards the Strait of Hormuz, in the coming days, together with the UK, we will organize a conference with those countries prepared to contribute alongside us to a peaceful multinational mission aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in the strait.” He added, “This strictly defensive mission, separate from the warring parties to the conflict, is intended to be deployed as soon as circumstances permit.” Still, Paris has rejected a US request to join a military coalition to forcibly reopen the strait, essentially paralleling Britain’s position.

At the same time Germany has not weighed in strongly one way or the other. A German government statement has said that “The US military’s announcement did not mention a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but rather a blockade of Iranian ports – that is a different approach.” Meanwhile, Turkey has strongly opposed the blockade and called for renewed diplomacy, while China too is warning against escalation and urged stability.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced it would begin a blockade “of all maritime traffic entering and exiting” Iranian ports starting at 10:00am Eastern Time on Monday. It added, “The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”

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“.. we just sort of… you know… made another Persian Gulf?”

• Fill’er Up: Trump’s Middle East Master Plan (Stephen Green)

“The spice must flow.” Fans of Frank Herbert’s Dune know that melange makes interstellar travel and trade possible. Its only source is the desert world of Arrakis, which makes it the most valuable real estate in the known universe. The spice is addictive. Arrakis is home to crusading religious fanatics whose supreme leader holds the spice hostage.If you’re thinking, “That sounds an awful lot like Persian Gulf oil,” Herbert is way out ahead of you.mPresident Donald Trump gets it. But what if, instead of spending another 40 or 50 years letting religious fanatics keep a stranglehold on the world’s supply of melange — er, oil — we just sort of… you know… made another Persian Gulf?

https://twitter.com/dangambardello/status/2043360878704091580


And called it the Gulf of America? Well, here it is: “Hundreds of supertankers, the kind that carry two million barrels each, are currently racing toward the US Gulf Coast from every direction, Atlantic, Indian Ocean, around Africa, the scenic route, the ‘we were heading to Saudi Arabia but never mind’ route,” Jesús Enrique Rosas noted this weekend. While most people — including Yours Truly — were focused primarily on last week’s ceasefire and whether the Islamic Republic would actually increase its stranglehold on the flow of Gulf oil, actual oil buyers adjusted accordingly.

“The more Iran leans on Hormuz, the faster global energy flows reroute around it. Over time, that erodes Tehran’s leverage and cuts into its long-term power,” Osint613 posted Sunday. That “Master Plan” bit from the headline is mostly hyperbole. Supporters and critics alike — the honest critics, that is, who deserve protection under the Endangered Species Act — understand that Trump acts as a chaos agent. He knows the end result he wants, even if sometimes only broadly defined as “Make America Great Again.” The established rules and methods don’t allow for that, so Trump is happy to blow things up (sometimes literally), and see what can be rebuilt from the pieces.

The thing about that Persian Gulf stranglehold is that, like the Sword of Damocles, it’s most effective before it’s used. Now that Tehran has tried (and only partly and temporarily succeeded) in closing the Strait of Hormuz, “About the only escalation option the IRGC has is to renew its missile and drone attacks on neighboring Gulf states,” as my Hot Air colleague Ed Morrissey put it on Monday. But “Trump has an escalation for that as well: Bridge and Power Plant Day. Let’s see how long it takes for Iran to provoke it.”

Looking at the bigger picture, Rosas also wrote: “Iran played its biggest card and the main result is that the United States became the world’s emergency gas station and China’s cheap energy subsidy evaporated. The spice — er, oil — must flow. But Trump rewrote the rulebook about where it flows from. This is where “Drill, baby, drill” meets MAGA foreign policy, so to those America Only people still fuming that Trump isn’t (and never was) an isolationist, now do you get it?

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Blockade started yesterday.

• US Military to Enforce Embargo of What No One Is Supposed to Be Buying (CTH)

Oil and gas sales from Iran are under international sanction and not supposed to be taking place. However, oil and gas sales from Iran -violating the sanctions- have been taking place. CENTCOM is announcing that the U.S. military will now ensure the oil and gas from Iran doesn’t move. The U.S. will physically enforce the pre-existing global sanctions. A blockade begins tomorrow morning.


TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, in accordance with the President’s proclamation. The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports. Additional information will be provided to commercial mariners through a formal notice prior to the start of the blockade.

All mariners are advised to monitor Notice to Mariners broadcasts and contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches. (SOURCE) Oil and gas from Kuwait will be allowed transit and passage. Oil and gas from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar will also transit without issue. However, oil or gas from Iran will be blocked. China takes the biggest hit, again. The target now is to cut off the Iranian money supply. This blockade is happening against the little discussed backdrop of Dubai (UAE) targeting Iranian money changers.

DUBAI – The arrest of dozens of IRGC-linked money changers in the United Arab Emirates is one of the most serious blows yet to Tehran’s sanctions-evasion network, laying bare how heavily the Islamic Republic has depended on Dubai as an economic lifeline. Sources familiar with the matter told Iran International that UAE authorities detained dozens of money changers tied to financial entities linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, shut down associated companies and closed their offices.

The crackdown follows days of mounting regional tensions and comes after other measures targeting Iranian nationals, including visa revocations and tighter travel restrictions through Dubai. For years, Dubai has served as Iran’s main offshore financial artery, where oil proceeds, petrochemical revenues and rial conversions were turned into dollars, dirhams and euros beyond the reach of the country’s battered domestic banking system.“This is going to be a real problem for Tehran because Dubai was an economic lung for the Iranian regime,” Jason Brodsky of United Against Nuclear Iran told Iran International. “That is economic pressure and diplomatic isolation in a way that the UAE is able to employ against the Iranian regime, and it will have a very considerable impact.”

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“They’re holed up in a bank demanding three large pizzas, a helicopter, and a personal phone call from Sydney Sweeney. . . .”— Greg Gutfeld on Iran’s negotiating position

• As the Worms Turn (James Howard Kunstler)

The Russians have a phrase for it: negotiation-incapable (ne peregovorosposobny). That is what the Iran delegation demonstrated during a long day of talks with the US team over the weekend in Islamabad. What part of “no nukes” didn’t they understand? All of it, apparently. The corollary question on the table — arguably more pressing for Iran — was: how much more punishment are you willing to suffer to sustain your dream of atomic bombs? You have no defenses left, no control of your air-space. Do you just want to sit in the dark for the next hundred years?


Such is the obduracy of the Shia death cult. They have no friends left in the world. Russia, you think? Not really. That relationship was pegged to geopolitical dynamics that are dead and gone. Russia is much better off normalizing relations with the USA so we can both be safe and secure in our spheres of influence. Europe is busy committing suicide. In this situation, China is little more than Iran’s very unhappy customer. Maybe Uncle Xi Pooh Bear can try talking some sense to whoever is left in-charge at the IRGC. . . give up your lunatic bomb dreams and just re-open the dingdang gas station! Pretty Please!

Anyway, why interfere with US operations in Hormuz? The USA is wresting control of the Persian Gulf from these maniacs who can’t be trusted to just stay open for business. Japan, the two Koreas, Indochina, India, also have to stand by with mounting frustration as these jihad-happy idiots starve Asia’s economies. A change in Iran’s attitude can’t happen soon enough and Mr. Trump is on the case. The blockade starts at 10a.m. today, Monday. Whatever’s left of Iran’s revenue stream goes out the window. Maybe they lob some rockets and drones at our ships. Maybe they hit something, maybe not. We’ll see where they launch from and that will be the end of X-number of remaining launch sites. Then there are the bridges, the power plants. FAFO mofos.

About those 1000 pounds of 60-percent enriched uranium (their precious bomb fixings). . . . You must imagine that it is either buried deeply under the rubble of Fordoz and Isfahan, or maybe distributed in many secret hidey-holes all over the place. . . or perhaps sitting booby-trapped somewhere. In short, there are many reasons to think that no special forces operation will be able to get at it. So, the only other conclusion is that Iran must be driven to a place where they will surrender the stuff willingly themselves. That could be a harsh place.

[..] Rumored to be released this week by the House Intelligence Committee: the transcript of former Intel Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson’s testimony about events that led to Impeachment #1 of Donald Trump in 2019. The transcript has been locked away in a vault since October, 2019. Tulsi Gabbard rooted it out. The shadowy Atkinson played a crucial role in positioning “whistleblower” Eric Ciaramella to spark off charges of the “Ukraine quid pro quo” phone call against the president. Ciaramella was then a CIA agent planted in the National Security Council. He may have been involved earlier in co-authoring the fake Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) that kicked off the RussiaGate hoax in 2017. For Impeachment #1 Atkinson reportedly changed the whistleblower rules to allow Ciaramella to convey second-hand hearsay from sketchy NSC member Col. Alexander Vindman to Rep. Adam Schiff, then chairman of the House Intel Committee. The chain of actions suggests the impeachment was a CIA setup. The CIA director at the time was Avril Haines. Ms. Haines ran the London CIA field office during the period when former MI6 agent Christopher Steele was concocting the notorious Steele Dossier at the center of RussiaGate. It has long been suspected that RussiaGate was a joint CIA / MI6 operation. Isn’t it about time that Avril Haines sat for a deposition in these various matters? It might be nice to know if our main Intel Agency was involved in serial schemes to overthrow the US government.

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This changes the meaning of “election” in any European country. The EU killed it all. Hard to get back. They’ll come in wherever they want.

• Magyar Beats Orban In Battle For Hungary: What Happens Now? (RT)

Hungarian opposition leader Peter Magyar has pulled off a stunning victory in the country’s parliamentary election, with his Tisza party beating Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz by more than 16 points. The result is set to dramatically change Hungary’s relations with the EU, Russia, and Ukraine. Just over an hour after polls closed on Sunday, Orban called Magyar to congratulate him on his win. With 92% of the ballots counted on Sunday night, Tisza was leading with 53.72% of the vote, ahead of Fidesz with 37.67% – a result in line with opposition-friendly pre-election polls.


Magyar campaigned on ending corruption, funding public services, and restoring ties with the EU. Orban promised to continue his program of tax breaks for citizens and levies on corporations, all while pledging to keep Hungary out of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. His campaign cast Magyar as a tool of the EU, who would cut off Hungary’s access to cheap Russian energy and back Brussels’ escalatory policies toward Moscow. A record 77.8% of eligible Hungarians voted, the highest turnout in any election in Hungarian history. Thanks to this unprecedented level of participation, “the democratic mandate of the next National Assembly will be stronger than ever before,” Gergely Gulyas, the Minister of the Prime Minister’s Office, told reporters.

“What the result means for the fate of our country and the nation, and what its deeper or higher meaning is, we do not know now, time will decide,” Orban told supporters in Budapest. “No matter how it turns out, we, as opposition, will serve our country and the Hungarian nation.”

Will Hungary maintain close relations with Russia?
This is highly unlikely. Magyar’s allies in the opposition media collaborated with EU spies to run stories of supposed Russian interference in the election, and Magyar led crowds in chants of “Russians, go home!” But he also said he will have to interact with Moscow, because “the geographical position of neither Russia nor Hungary will change.” Rhetoric aside, Magyar is unlikely to embrace a policy of open hostility toward Moscow, but his desire to mend ties with the EU will in all likelihood result in Budapest dropping its opposition to the bloc’s €90 billion ($105 billion) loan package for Ukraine – a decision that will be poorly received in Russia.

Will Hungary get the cold shoulder from the US?
Viktor Orban is a close ideological ally of US President Donald Trump, who dispatched Vice President J.D. Vance to Budapest to campaign for his reelection, and promised to use the “full economic might of the United States to strengthen Hungary’s economy” if Orban won. With Magyar in charge, Hungary will no longer be the darling of the MAGA movement, but relations between the two countries will likely remain cordial.

Will Magyar open Hungary to more immigrants?
Highly unlikely. Orban’s hardline immigration policies are exceedingly popular in Hungary, and Magyar has attacked the prime minister on immigration from the right, criticizing his decision to allow 35,000 guest workers into Hungary from outside the EU. It remains to be seen whether Brussels will pressure Magyar into accepting asylum seekers, and whether the liberal Western media criticizes him as intensely on the issue as it did to Orban.

How quickly can the EU release billions of euros it withheld from Hungary?
The EU is currently withholding around €20 billion in funding from Hungary, citing concerns over judicial independence, corruption, and Orban’s ban on LGBTQ propaganda. Magyar is on track to win the two-thirds majority necessary to modify Hungary’s constitution and implement the judicial reforms demanded by Brussels, but the EU will ultimately decide if and when to release the money. Additionally, Magyar has stayed quiet on LGBTQ issues, and any attempts to liberalize Hungary to meet the EU’s demands may prove unpopular with Hungarians. For Magyar, accessing this money is crucial. His program of spending on healthcare, education, and other public services depends entirely on the release of the funds.

Will Hungary be able to cancel its contracts for Russian oil?
Russia supplies almost 90% of Hungary’s oil and slightly more of its gas, and provides nuclear fuel for the Paks Nuclear Power Plant. The EU has mandated that its member states completely cut themselves off from Russian energy by the end of next year, but Hungary’s contracts with Russia extend to 2035. Magyar has promised to end Hungary’s reliance on Russian energy, but only when the contracts expire. However, he may be unwilling to continue Orban’s policy of obstructing EU sanctions packages to secure exemptions for Hungary, which will essentially force a cutoff before 2035.

Will the EU now be able to steal Russia’s frozen assets?
No. Despite Orban being portrayed in the media as the sole obstacle between the EU and its plans for Ukraine, the decision on whether to steal the roughly €210 billion in Russian assets frozen in the EU is an unpopular one. Leaders including Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Slovakia’s Robert Fico, and the Czech Republic’s Andrej Babis all oppose the measure, as does Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, whose country the assets are impounded in.

As such, the EU is banking on its €90 billion debt-financed loan to keep Ukraine afloat. With Orban out of the picture, Brussels will likely be able to secure unanimous support for the loan, unless Fico or Babis object.

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7 years old. “Without DNI Gabbard, these documents would never have seen sunlight.” What do you mean, justice? Get ’em all, Tulsi!

• Atkinson Transcripts and Background ICIG Investigative Documents Released (CTH)

Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, has retrieved, reviewed, declassified and forced the release of internal background documents related to the Intelligence Community’s collaborative effort to impeach President Donald J Trump in 2019. The HPSCI wants to take political credit for the release; however, the HPSCI was forced into this position by the diligent work of Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. Without DNI Gabbard, these documents would never have seen sunlight. This type of public information release is exactly why DNI Tulsi Gabbard has been targeted by friend and foe alike.


WASHINGTON, D.C.— Today, the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence released two declassified transcripts from 2019 hearings with the former Intelligence Community Inspector General, Michael Atkinson, following a security review from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). The Committee received the declassified transcripts from the ODNI the evening of Friday, April 10, 2026. These transcripts are from two hearings held to examine Atkinson’s role in an alleged whistleblower complaint, which ultimately led to Democrats’ first impeachment efforts against President Trump in December 2019. (link)

Looking closely at the information in these three documents makes it clear why the HPSCI never wanted them released. Both current and former members, including Republicans, are tied to a pattern of willful blindness, knowing the details yet choosing to stay silent for months and even years afterward. Former HPSCI Chairman, then HPSCI Ranking Member Devin Nunes was a participant in the testimony. Former HPSCI member, now CIA Director John Ratcliffe was a participant in the testimony. Former HPSCI staff, now FBI Director Kash Patel was a participant in the testimony. [Think about it]

Principle Players – The National Security Council leaker was Alexander Vindman. The CIA “Whistleblower” was Eric Ciaramella. The Intelligence Community Inspector General was Michael Atkinson. There is a lot of information to review as the documents include:
(1) The CIA complaint from Ciaramella and subsequent ICIG investigation. (pdf)
(2) The first interview of the ICIG Atkinson by the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI), dated September 19, 2019. (pdf)
(3) The second interview of ICIG Atkinson dated October 4, 2019. (pdf)

In total there are about 450 pages of documents and transcripts to read and review. The story they tell is remarkable as it outlines how internal people within the various intelligence agencies of the United States government, collaborated and used their positions of responsibility to target a sitting president for impeachment and removal. nIn short, in addition to all the “Spygate” surveillance and “Russiagate” wrongdoing, these documents highlight the real and actionable activity by the U.S. Intelligence Community to work collaborative with congress during their targeting of President Trump.

Do not lose sight of the forest while surrounded by the details of the trees. I will share much more detail about what evidence the documents show and put that detail into the context of what it means. Unfortunately, there are some alarming realizations about how our government operates and the false entities within it who claim a position to fight against the corruption, while keeping their mouths shut about specific evidence of corruption. Much more will follow, but right now I need to pray a little bit and maybe go for a walk.

Please begin to read the releases and share your thoughts in the comments below. There are more documents that need to surface, more stuff that I will never relent from locating and finding methods to bring it out. In the interim, thank you to Tulsi Gabbard for the painful truth we all need to absorb.

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it has to be declared grossly illegal at some point.

• Bank of Russia Disputes Freeze of Assets by EU (TASS)

The Central Bank of Russia disputed the freeze of Russian assets and charged the EU Council with the infringement on division of powers, violations of EU laws and procedure, and decision-making in absence of required competencies. Such wordings are contained in the statement of claim registered by the EU Court of Justice on February 27.


“The applicant argues that the regulation was adopted on an incorrect basis, in so far as Article 122 TFEU [Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union] cannot constitute a valid basis for the measures adopted since, substantively, they fall within the scope of restrictive measures against an entity of a third State and should have been based on Article 215 TFEU, which requires unanimity of the members of the Council. The use of Article 122 TFEU therefore constitutes a flagrant circumvention of the specific institutional framework provided for by the Treaties for the purpose of adopting such measures, in infringement of the division of powers and the institutional balance,” the statement of claim indicates.

The Bank of Russia demands cancellation of the decision to freeze sovereign assets and payment of legal costs by the EU Council.

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You can bet Trump is planning everything very meticulously. He did no mass pardons the first time around.

• Trump Reportedly Planning Mass Pardons Of Administration Officials (ZH)

Donald Trump has reportedly promised to pardon virtually his entire White House staff before leaving office, and the radius keeps growing. What started as a quip about anyone within 10 feet of the Oval Office has ballooned into something considerably more sweeping. “I’ll pardon everyone who has come within 200 feet of the Oval,” Trump allegedly said to a room of aides in a recent meeting, drawing laughs, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. The report claims that staffers who raise the possibility of congressional investigations or prosecutions into policy decisions tend to hear about whether preemptive pardons are on the table.


The unconditional power to pardon is one of the most sweeping powers offered to the presidency. This term, Trump has wielded clemency far differently than any other president, dispensing some 1,600 grants to date. Many have gone to allies and donors, or those who had hired them, coming after a social pull-aside or a round of golf. Some have received bipartisan criticism, including one to a crypto billionaire whose company boosted Trump’s own digital-currency company, and another to a former Honduran president convicted of conspiring with cartels to ship cocaine to the U.S. In Trump’s first term, he signed fewer than 250 pardons and commutations.

The president has repeatedly raised the specter of pardons with White House aides and other administration officials, particularly when staff have suggested they could face prosecution or congressional investigations over decisions, people familiar with the comments said. Trump is known to joke about matters that he later seriously pursues, and the frequent references have led some aides to believe he is serious about the pardons, too.

They certainly have reason to be worried that Democrats will attempt to weaponize their powers to launch endless investigations. They’ve repeatedly promised to do so. In response to Trump’s immigration enforcement policies, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries not only promised to prosecute ICE agents and Trump administration officials.

None of this happened in a vacuum. Trump reportedly weighed pardoning White House officials in the chaotic days after January 6, 2021, but decided against it. He later told advisers he regretted that decision. Democrats viciously went after Trump allies, rioters, and even Trump himself.

Critics will certainly want to treat this as a constitutional crisis in progress. But before the outrage fully crystallizes, it’s worth noting who opened the door. Joe Biden issued sweeping preemptive pardons for top officials and family members at the end of his term – including his family, Dr. Anthony Fauci, and the entire January 6 Select Committee – citing the possibility of DOJ scrutiny under Trump. Michael LaRosa, a former communications aide to Biden, had the intellectual honesty to say the quiet part out loud, saying, “By testing the boundaries of the pardon power, Biden cracked the door open and we can’t now complain about Donald Trump walking through it, even if he blows it wide open.”

The White House, however, is dismissing the Wall Street Journal’s report. “The Wall Street Journal should learn to take a joke,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “However, the President’s pardon power is absolute,” she added.

While the White House clearly doesn’t want to confirm the story, there’s reason to believe that even if Trump was joking, there’s a serious point behind it—and Joe Biden effectively gave him cover to act on it. The informal norms governing the pardon power took a significant hit during Biden’s final weeks in office. Trump declined to go that far when he left office in 2021, but with Democrats openly signaling plans to target his officials if they regain power, he may now feel compelled to act to protect them from what he sees as a weaponized justice system.

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From “Mass Pardons” to no amnesty. We have it all.

• White House: ‘Era of Amnesty Is Over’ (Catherine Salgado)

“No more activist judges shielding criminal illegals. No more endless delays. Only results.” The Trump White House is celebrating multiple massive immigration enforcement wins that signal the era of mass migration and mass amnesty is over. Since Donald Trump came back into office, federal authorities have removed three million illegal aliens from the United States through ICE deportations or voluntary deportations, which is the biggest reduction in illegal migration in modern history, according to a White House press release on April 9. This is exactly what the American people voted for. This is the sort of reform we hoped to see when immigration became one of the top issues in the 2024 election.


Besides the three million deportees, border officers have not released a single illegal alien into the United States at our borders for 11 straight months. The “era of amnesty is over,” indeed. The overwhelming majority of asylum claims have long been fraudulent, and that is one major area where the Trump administration implemented reform. The U.S. immigration authority now grants asylum in only 7% of cases, slashing the number of criminals and illegal aliens who tried to use asylum claims as a free ticket into our country. In contrast, under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the government approved over 50% of asylum claims, according to the release.

I will give just two illustrations of why this is a big deal. First, just this week, the U.S. State Department revoked the lawful permanent resident status it had granted to Hamideh Soleimani Afshar, the niece of mass-murdering Iranian jihad leader Qasem Soleimani. Afshar had obtained residency and a life of luxury in the United States by claiming asylum here. Yet she repeatedly returned to Iran and regularly spouted pro-regime propaganda, illustrating how bogus her asylum claim was. And second, back in 2024, an Ecuadoran “asylum seeker” raped a 13-year-old at knifepoint in New York. These are only two examples of how broken our asylum system was before the Trump administration took over.

The White House release also highlighted the following wins:
• Deportations and removal orders are surging: In fiscal year 2025, immigration courts issued nearly 500,000 removal orders — a 57% increase over the prior year — as criminal illegals are removed faster and in far greater numbers than ever before.
• The massive court backlog is being slashed: Hundreds of thousands of cases have already been cleared since Inauguration Day, with reductions accelerating every month — ending the years-long delays that let illegals remain indefinitely.

And, as noted above, the Trump administration has successfully closed our borders. The White House press release enthusiastically concluded, “President Trump promised to end the open borders nightmare — and he is delivering on that promise with unrelenting force. The era of catch-and-release, mass releases, and activist judicial amnesty is over.” As we celebrate the 250th year of America’s existence, there is no better time to reflect on what national sovereignty and security mean.

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https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/2043751159773704483?s=20

 

 

 

 

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