Sep 212025
 


Dora Maar Model in swimsuit 1936

 

President Trump Will Declare Martial Law – Larry Klayman (USAW)
Charlie Kirk’s Fight vs University Indoctrination (Victor Davis Hanson)
Kirk’s Funeral Tests Secret Service Yet Again (RCW)
Fear, Dread and How America Got to This Point (J. Peder Zane)
Notes of Caution – The Story of Telemachus (CTH)
Top Biden Aide Releases Kraken On Autopen, Hunter’s Role In Pardongate (ZH)
Does This Prove Hunter Biden Orchestrated His Own Pardon? (Margolis)
Media Disguise Airspace Violation Claims (MoA)
Lithuanian Defense Chief Urges Shooting Down Russian Warplanes (ZH)
US ‘Quietly’ Curtailing Arms Sales To Western Europe – The Atlantic (RT)
EU To Unlock €500mn In Bid For Orban’s Russia Sanctions Backing – FT (RT)

 

 

Today’s a day of reflection.

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1969388030734586253
https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1969272802134954306
https://twitter.com/Chicago1Ray/status/1969219687922745811


https://twitter.com/its_The_Dr/status/1969273095325114638

 

 

 

 

“..the rats are out of the woodwork, and they want to kill us. They want to kill everyone of us. If you are out there talking and you are a conservative, Republican, Libertarian or a religious activist, you are in their line of fire.”

President Trump Will Declare Martial Law – Larry Klayman (USAW)

Renowned attorney Larry Klayman predicted early on that the Left would resort to violence when they lose in court to try to stop the Trump Administration agenda. Back in July, Klayman said, “Violence is what they are left with, and we see it happening. We are now seeing calls to violence repeatedly.”

Calls for violence have turned into actual deadly violence with the murder of Charlie Kirk and other shootings by violent transexuals and the far liberal Left. It looks like we are not going to hug it out. In April, Klayman predicted, “If violence breaks out in a bigger way, Trump can declare martial law.” We have already seen this with mass violence against ICE in LA and President Trump cracking down on crime in Washington D.C. Now, Trump is heading to Memphis, and then on Chicago where dozens are shot every weekend. Klayman says don’t kid yourself, martial law is coming to a city near you–and coming soon. Klayman explains, “You cut off their funding, you cut off their food and they become wounded beasts or wounded animals. That’s what I said earlier. . .. Trump knows that right now, with the death of Charlie Kirk, he can basically run the table.

We need to support him. I believe the flood gates are going to open. He now has a valid reason to take control on a temporary basis until you clear the rats out of these cities. This includes the rats like (Illinois Governor) Pritzker. He needs to be legally eliminated. Pritzker can do nothing about it if Trump declares martial law. . .. Whether Trump declares martial law immediately or not, I think it is still going to be soon. Trump said he is going into Chicago in a matter of days. You have tens of people killed every weekend and many wounded all the time. If that is not a situation where you need to declare martial law to restore order, I don’t know what is.”

Klayman says the Left is well organized and backed by billionaires funding them. That funding is beginning to be cut off. Trump has vowed to go after them with RICO cases. Trump has just declared groups such as Antifa domestic terrorists. Klayman says, “It is a war between the Right and the Left. The Right must win. We are right, and we must do it peacefully and legally. We must relegate these people to the ash heap of history. We can’t be sitting and listening to chamber music on the Titanic as the ship of state sinks. We can’t allow that to happen.

They did not succeed the way they wanted to succeed with their court cases. They won some . . . but they saw they could not use lawfare anymore to take control of this country and to take it down to ground zero so they could enslave all of us. Now, they have gone to violence. Now, it’s clear the rats are out of the woodwork, and they want to kill us. They want to kill everyone of us. If you are out there talking and you are a conservative, Republican, Libertarian or a religious activist, you are in their line of fire.”

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“..where did these things come from? And he said they came from the campus. “And therefore, I’m going to the campus and trying to stop this indoctrination by offering a different pathway.”

Charlie Kirk’s Fight vs University Indoctrination (Victor Davis Hanson)

I think we all want to put the passing of Charlie Kirk in perspective. And it’s been a terrible week. And what are we to make sense of this terrible incident? One thing is to remember what Charlie Kirk did. He was a political organizer. He was a media figure. But he was not trying to persuade people on the basis solely of politics. He didn’t go to the campuses and say, “This is the conservative agenda. This is the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill.’ This is the immigration. And I want you to vote along this ticket.” That’s what a traditional politician does. He wasn’t. What he was trying to do was address root causes that make people vote in a particular way. So, he was saying to the Republican Party: We’ve got to address this existential crisis of young people—that was his forte—on campuses and off campuses that can’t afford to buy a car, that can’t afford to buy a home, that can’t afford, right away, to have children.

And that has enormous consequences, not just for the Republican Party—this alienation of the youth and its flirtation with socialisms and its false answers to these real problems. But more importantly, it’s creating a social, cultural problem called ”prolonged adolescence.”People are not getting married at the age they used to. They’re not having as many children or as early in their lives as they used to. They’re not buying homes in their late 20s or early 30s. They’re going to school, not for four years, but for six or eight years. They’re not going and graduating after four years and getting a good job. They’re graduating at six, eight years with a quarter million dollars—in some cases—in student loans. So, he was trying to address the cultural, the economic, the social maladies of this country that expressed themselves in politics.

And he thought if he took care of that, then he would be successful elsewhere. And so, he was. So, if you look at 2020, why Donald Trump lost, one of the reasons was that the youth vote that traditionally goes to Democrats really went to Democrats, Joe Biden in 2020. That key demographic of 19- to 40-year-olds. However, in 2024, Donald Trump made amazing rebounds. He got, nationwide, 6% to 8%, about 8% higher of that youth vote than he did in 2020. But more importantly, in the key swing states—that would be places like Michigan, like Wisconsin, like North Carolina, like Arizona and Georgia—in some cases, he got up to 18% to 19%, flipping a greater margin in 2024 than he did 2020. And that ensured him an Electoral College. And that was largely, not exclusively, due to Charlie Kirk’s efforts at addressing the real issues that young people were worried about.

There’s a couple of other things about him that were unusual. He was the most successful political activist under 40 of either party, Democrat or Republican, liberal or conservative. And one of the reasons is it’s very hard for someone coming out of college to be a political organizer, a political activist, to create a business-like organization, although it was a 501(c)(3), it was nonprofit. But it was huge, with $100 million budget. He was a writer. He was a podcaster. Part of that was because he did not go in the traditional academic pathway. He dropped out of college at 18. And he had to live by his wits, not in the artificial bubble of academia or the la-la land of the campus, where there are no consequences to behavior. But he had to earn a living. And he had to form an organization. And he had to appeal to people.

So, pragmatism was his benchmark. And so, he learned to speak to people in a practical way. He learned to write with people in a pragmatic way. He learned to organize and galvanize people in a practical way. And he said, “The universities are training generation after generation after generation in this seriously dangerous leftist dogma.” In other words, if you’re worried about this bizarre transgender movement, this cult-like effort to have biological men compete in women’s sports, to take one example; or you’re worried about the idea that you can steal $950 and not be prosecuted; or if you think that race is essential and not incidental to who you are—where did these things come from? And he said they came from the campus. “And therefore, I’m going to the campus and trying to stop this indoctrination by offering a different pathway.”

You put it all together and if people want to remember Charles Kirk’s legacy, I think the best thing they could do is register, according to your station. Get as many people as you can to register to vote. And try to upset the historical law that says a president will lose and lose badly in his first midterm. If that should happen, President Donald Trump will have an agenda that will be derailed, and he will not be able to fulfill the promises that he made. And the Democratic House, in its lunatic fashion, will try to impeach him. But if you do go out and register and you show the same energy and creativity that Charlie Kirk did, then you can pull off a historical upset and defeat the out party and ensure a large Republican majority in both the House and the Senate. And that will force multiply the Trump agenda.

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You’re in charge of the secuity of 100,000 people, including an absolute who’s who.

Kirk’s Funeral Tests Secret Service Yet Again (RCW)

Amid a fiery national debate over political violence and free speech, the Secret Service faces one of its biggest tests yet in securing Charlie Kirk’s massive funeral in Arizona this weekend. President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and numerous dignitaries, conservative figures, prominent reporters, television anchors, and up to 100,000 members of the public are expected to attend the tribute to Kirk’s life this Sunday at State Farm Stadium, home of the Arizona Cardinals, in Glendale. The Secret Service has been under serious scrutiny since multiple failures provided an opening for two near-miss assassination attempts against Trump last year, the first of which resulted in the death of rallygoer Corey Comperatore and the serious injury of two other attendees.

The Secret Service successfully protected the inauguration of President Trump in January without a hitch, even though the agency moved the swearing-in ceremony indoors and canceled the traditional outdoor parade, purportedly because of low temperatures in D.C. But the massive Arizona memorial service honoring Kirk, the assassinated conservative activist and organizer known for his influence with young people across the country and the world, poses a serious challenge for law enforcement and the Secret Service, an agency already facing manpower strains and pressure as it strives to repair its reputation to execute a zero-fail mission. The stadium in Glendale can seat 63,400, and the local police department is planning for a crowd of up to 100,000 people to descend on the area, with at least one overflow location designated at the Desert Diamond Arena where the event will livestream on jumbotrons.

Kirk’s memorial comes during tumultuous times for the nation. His supporters mourn his brutal killing amid a national debate over gun violence and what types of limits, if any, private and government entities can place on free speech. Conservative and liberal politicians and political commentators are facing off over ABC’s Wednesday decision to abruptly fire late-night talk show host Jimmy Kimmel after he misrepresented the assassin’s likely motives for murdering Kirk. And Trump on Wednesday designated the far-left Antifa group a “terrorist organization” and said he was strongly recommending that those funding the movement be thoroughly investigated “in accordance with the highest legal standards and practices.”

It’s also a difficult moment for the Secret Service, which has faced serious retention issues since the assassination attempts, with a recent Department of Homeland Security Department Office of the Inspector General’s report exposing the agency as seriously understaffed when it comes to counter snipers – 73% below mission requirements. A large contingent of top-flight Secret Service agents traveled to the United Kingdom with Trump and first lady Melania this week for an official state visit. And the United Nations General Assembly will be in full swing next week in New York City, where the Secret Service is charged with securing more than 100 visiting foreign dignitaries at hotels and events around Manhattan. Meanwhile, the agency must also maintain security teams around all Cabinet secretaries and former presidents.

“Where are they getting all these assets?” Rich Staropoli, former Secret Service agent and former Department of Homeland Security undersecretary, asked in an interview with RealClearPolitics. “It’s going to be very difficult to find the manpower, given the UN is in session and then you probably have a couple of hundred guys on their way back from London right now that won’t get back until the day after the president,” he added. “And then you’ve got this event, this huge event out in Arizona. It’s not like we got a couple of hundred agents out there on a normal basis.” Other sources in the Secret Service community argue that the agency is well prepared to handle both UNGA and the Kirk memorial service, especially since Trump and Vance will be there with their USSS details, some of the most highly trained agents, and elite units designed for high-risk scenarios.

Back in New York City, the Secret Service has a high trust in the New York Police Department’s robust team of counter snipers in their Emergency Services Unit, with which the agency partners for protection. Not all foreign dignitaries show up at once; they arrive and participate in the summit on a rolling basis, former Secret Service agent Charles Marino explains. “The fact that we’ve got a great deal of confidence in the NYPD, that does free up some resources for the USSS to use for this memorial,” Marino tells RCP. The Department of Homeland Security has designated the Kirk funeral as a Special Event Assessment Rating (SEAR) 1 event with the same level of security as the Super Bowl or the Boston Marathon. The designation is different than a National Special Security Event, a category for events that could affect the nation and the world.

In SEAR events, state and local authorities make the assessments and DHS provides the assets. The Secret Service agent in charge of the Phoenix Field Office will serve as the federal coordinator for the service, working side by side with local partners. Those Secret Service and local law enforcement partnerships broke down during the assassination attempt against Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, when the agency and local police maintained siloed communications and even two separate command posts. On the one-year anniversary of the Butler event, Secret Service Director Sean Curran issued a statement declaring that the agency is “laser-focused on ensuring that those we are sworn to protect, the public, and the dedicated men and women of the Secret Service are never let down again.”

Curran said the agency has implemented changes to the Secret Service’s protective operations policies “to ensure clear lines of accountability and improved information sharing with local law enforcement partners.” In the wake of Kirk’s assassination, House Republicans this week also included $88 million in a stop-gap funding bill to bolster security for federal officials. The funds would include $30 million for congressional security, $30 million for the executive branch, and $28 million for the judiciary. “[Kirk’s killing] initiated a number of uncomfortable but necessary conversations about important issues like the safety and security of our members and the responsibility of public service, and the need for political leaders to turn down the temperature and the violent rhetoric in America,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said.

Despite these efforts, the Secret Service was fumbling again just days before Kirk’s killing in ways that funding boosts may not fix. RCP reported last week that Secret Service screeners missed a Glock in the bag of someone who had entered Trump National Golf Course in Sterling, Virginia, while Trump was golfing over Labor Day weekend. Thankfully, the individual posed no harm to the president and self-reported the security breach. Last Thursday, the night before Kirk’s assassination, anti-Israel Code Pink protesters ambushed Trump, Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as they were dining out in D.C. just a short walk from the White House. The protesters unfurled pro-Palestinian flags and banners and yelled epithets at Trump from just a few feet away.

After Kirk’s murder, RCP reported that a Secret Service agent named Anthony Pough posted on Facebook that the conservative activist was a “racist” and essentially deserved to be killed because of “karma.” The Secret Service placed the agent on administrative leave late last week. The Secret Service defended its response to the protesters who verbally accosted Trump at the restaurant last week, arguing that agents escorted them out quickly. An agency spokesperson also said that the Secret Service had screened everyone in the establishment for weapons and explained that the protesters had made reservations to dine at the restaurant along with all the other patrons.

But Staropoli and other former agents argued that the Code Pink incident was another embarrassing breach – that the Secret Service should have acted more quickly to remove the protesters or should have screened restaurant patrons more thoroughly to prevent such a menacing display. With the Kirk assassination consuming the following day’s news cycle, the press never asked the White House whether the Secret Service should have prevented the Code Pink confrontation from occurring. Just hours before that incident, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Tuesday evening told RCP that the Secret Service has opened an investigation into the missed Glock incident “to figure out exactly how the gun made it onto the property.” “As for the president, in the past he has said he trusts USSS and the job they do to protect him,” Leavitt added.

Leavitt did not say whether Trump’s trust in the Secret Service remains – or whether magnetometers would be required at his golf clubs in the future, a question RCP posed to her. Some Secret Service agents chock up the recent breaches to either a lowering of standards as the agency tries to beef up its numbers during a severe manpower shortage or fatigue because existing agents and Uniformed Division officers used for screening are continuing to be stretched too thin. “The backdrop here is the Service has got to move quickly in building up these numbers as quickly as possible because these types of big competing security events are not going away – they’re just not,” Marino remarked.

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“..we must acknowledge our many blessings that were bequeathed to us by our ancestors. Reflecting on these gifts might inspire the gratitude that can once again give flight to the better angles of our nature. If we don’t, lord help us.”

Fear, Dread and How America Got to This Point (J. Peder Zane)

A week before Charlie Kirk’s murder, some friends and I were trying to identify the seminal events that have shaped this American century. We all lead happy lives, but the incidents we listed told a story of fear and dread. We immediately mentioned 9/11 and the economic collapse of 2008, both of which galvanized an aching sense of vulnerability. If JFK’s assassination marked the loss of American innocence, those events symbolized the withering sense of safety and security. We agreed that the Iraq War and COVID-19 intensified the growing belief that our government was not only incompetent but dishonest. The BLM riots of 2020 and the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol suggested that the center was no longer holding, that passionate intensity was overwhelming reason.

“Don’t forget Trump,” I said. Although most of my friends support the president, they believe that our politics would not have taken such an ugly turn if he had never stepped onto that escalator. The hatred Trump inspires in his opponents, and his relish at fighting fire with fire, have amped up the discord. Acknowledging that he has helped bring out the worst in his adversaries – and, too often, in his supporters – is not to blame him for our circumstances but to recognize that he is a singularly polarizing figure. A friend said the rise of social media may be an even more important factor, noting how it has helped create political echo chambers in a strange space of connected loneliness that makes it harder for us to relate to others. It may still be true that “no man is an island,” but we seem to be trying. Our growing mental health crisis, especially among younger Americans, is hard to explain without reference to this phenomenon.

The fear, mistrust, anger, division, and violence – it was all there. Still, it struck us that these events were more flashpoints than triggering events, which did not adequately capture how and why our nation appears to have gone off the rails. Individuals and countries can respond to what life throws at them in any number of ways – with courage or cowardice, love or hate. The question became: Why have these and many other events unleashed darkness instead of light? We would have needed a lot more time, and wine, to begin to answer that one. But it struck me, later, that important roots of our current crisis can be found in the unsettling ideas that have taken hold in our culture for the past few decades. Although much of this thinking has come from the progressive left – developed in academia and advanced by elite media – it has been absorbed by people of all political stripes as well as those alienated from politics.

As Helen Pluckrose and James Lindsay detailed in their indispensable book, “Cynical Theories,” the fall of communism in the early 1990s created a crisis for the innumerable scholars influenced by Marxism. In response to the discrediting of their worldview, they set out to “problematize” – i.e., find the fault – in other ideologies. This is not hard, because every system of human thought and action is deeply flawed, filled with tensions and inconsistencies. We don’t live in a perfect world. The observation made famous by Churchill, that “democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried,” can be applied to most of the assumptions and structures we rely on.

Emboldened by the postmodern idea that there is no truth, just versions of reality, these scholars set out to undermine every pillar of society. Pluckrose and Lindsay observed: “They are obsessed with power, language, knowledge, and the relationships between them. They interpret the world through a lens that detects power dynamics in every interaction, utterance, and cultural artifact – even when they aren’t obvious or real. This is a worldview that centers social and cultural grievances and aims to make everything into a zero-sum political struggle revolving around identity markers like race, sex, gender, sexuality; and many others.”

In fairness, there is much to say and debate about their targets, which included religion, capitalism, American history, the nuclear family, gender roles, race, and our legal system. But the thrust of their critiques was not aimed at building a better nation but razing the one we have – of sowing doubt without offering an alternative beyond empty slogans. We live in a world of fear in large part because they have worked to strip us of certainty about everything. It is hard to calculate, for example, the irreparable harm they have done to children through the confusion they unleashed by telling them that gender is assigned at birth. Similarly, their efforts to cast America as a despicable nation with a shameful history have made it increasingly hard for many people to harbor the love of country that is essential to building a national community.

No matter how much disruption, human beings inherently crave certainty and stability; these are the bedrocks that justify our actions. This is why the left, incoherently but necessarily, still claims it is the guardian of its chief target: truth. But if there is no truth, then there is only power. If reality is just a social construct, facts and language are merely tools that can be twisted in any way to prevail. The further down this path we have traveled, the harder it has become to sustain a functioning democracy, which hinges on the ability of disparate people to come to common understandings to forge compromises. As we have retreated into our own versions of reality, misinformation and disinformation have run rampant in part because people (and major media outlets) feel freer to assert their own results-oriented versions of truth, and in part because each side’s truth strikes the other as deceit.

The inability of half the people to talk to, much less convince, the other half foments frustration, anger, and resentment. Lacking the tools of dialogue and persuasion, ramping up rhetoric seems the only recourse. Hence, Democrats label their opponents as Nazis and fascists as they cast every issue as an existential threat. President Trump calls his adversaries scum and insists we are ever on the verge of losing our country. Principle bows to opportunity as each side becomes enraged when the other mimics its own egregious conduct – as we are seeing right now as conservatives embrace the cancel culture they once abhorred. If war is the failure of diplomacy – of the ability to solve problems civilly – the political violence that is engulfing our culture is no surprise. Recent polls show that young, often university-educated students in particular, accept violence as a proper response to unwelcome speech, which reflects the spread of poisonous ideas.

If Charlie Kirk’s assassination is to be a wake-up call rather than a harbinger, we must reject the nihilistic thinking advanced by reckless elites. This is a monumental task. No single atrocity is going to flip a switch. The evidence following Kirk’s murder suggests we are more likely to embrace conflict. That said, we have one towering strength that can help us keep our Republic: the truth about our country. We are lucky beyond measure to be spending our one chance at life in the freest and most prosperous land in human history. Even as we confront our problems, we must acknowledge our many blessings that were bequeathed to us by our ancestors. Reflecting on these gifts might inspire the gratitude that can once again give flight to the better angles of our nature. If we don’t, lord help us.

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‘In the Name of Christ, stop!’

Notes of Caution – The Story of Telemachus (CTH)

The Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement has gained in ranks mostly due to the pragmatic messenger who cuts through party lines, Donald Trump; but also, because the political left went too far into the world of social crazy. For several years, traditional moderates and Democrats have been turning away from the messaging of the leftist party now controlled by radical Marxists and publicly declared socialists. Almost everything they created as a point of advocacy made their following spiral into an ever-diminishing circle. Democrats are the party of censorship, gleefully cheering as conservative voices were deplatformed, demonetized, targeted by the social media system operators who controlled the public square, targeted by an aligned government and mainstream media, and evidenced in their full-throated demands around the COVID-19 madness and vaccine protocols.

Democrats cheered as government collaborated with tech donors to diminish their opposition, while simultaneously they affirmed some of the evilest enterprises around DEI, toxic advocacy for transgender and LGBTQ+ ideology, the mutilation of children and far worse. Socially their policies became increasingly toxic and ridiculous. As they descended this spiral, Democrats became increasingly dangerous – visibly so – and the outcome of their advocacy was not in alignment with anything resembling ‘domestic tranquility’. None of this is questioned by serious people who have watched the last 18 years unfold. The leftist ideology is abusive in the extreme. As the left pushed further and further into their created system of social madness, violence and evil enterprise, they lost support and MAGA Republicans were beneficiaries.

Despite our lack of control over the power centers, the MAGA tent expanded as the party of the individual not the collective; the party of freedom, free speech and, well, functionally common sense. The toxic abusers held power, but culturally they were losing control. MAGA represented the rebellion, and the rebel ranks gained even while, and perhaps because, we were being abused. Then a 22-year-old radical leftist, fully indoctrinated within the 18-years of social Marxist advancement, shot the Christian representation of the MAGA rebellion, Charlie Kirk, in the neck – killing him in front of millions.

Telemachus was a Christian monk from Asia who went to Rome and saw the gladiatorial games at the Colosseum. Telemachus watched the brutality of men slaughtering men, animals ripping the flesh and limbs from humans, while eighty thousand in the audience cheered. As a Christian, Telemachus was horrified. Telemachus cried out, ‘In the Name of Christ, stop!’ Yet, his voice was lost in the roar within the great Colosseum. He descended the stairs, made his way to the edge of the arena, jumped down and stood between two Gladiators. ‘In the Name of Christ, stop!’, he declared. The crowd jeered, whistled and shouted down the much smaller monk, but Telemachus would not relent,

‘In the Name of Christ, stop!,’ he desperately kept repeating. The angry jeers of the crowd turned violent, and they threw stones upon Telemachus; but the monk would only reply, ‘In the Name of Christ, stop!’. The stoning continued to rain down upon the small Asian monk, until Telemachus was dead. His only recorded words were, ‘In the Name of Christ, stop!’… until he was dead. Telemachus’ body was dragged away, the games continued, but the moment changed how many perceived the brutality that took place within the Colosseum. The horrific injustice of the events forever changed how the blood lust within the venue was evaluated. Thereafter, Emperor Honorius recognized Telemachus’ martyrdom, and the gladiator games ended.

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Hunter pardoned himself.

Top Biden Aide Releases Kraken On Autopen, Hunter’s Role In Pardongate (ZH)

One of former President Joe Biden’s top aides – Jeff Zients, told the House Oversight Committee on Thursday that an aide with his email credentials was green lighting some of the most controversial ‘autopen’ pardons, that Hunter Biden – who received an insane pardon himself – was involved in the pardon discussions, and that Joe Biden’s brain was pea soup. According to Axios, Zients – one of the highest ranking officials from the Biden White House – confirmed that Joe Biden had difficulty remembering dates and names, and often required extra briefings to make decisions during the final years of his presidency. Instead of having three meetings before making a decision, for example, Biden would want four. Zients said Biden had long had trouble with names and dates, but acknowledged to investigators that the president’s memory of such facts got worse in the final years of his term.

Jill Biden, meanwhile, spoke with Zients about ‘managing Joe’ as Zients was readying himself to take on the role of Chief of Staff in early 2023 – urging him to adjust Biden’s schedule so he could get more rest and return to the White House residence earlier in the evening. Longtime Biden aide and deputy CoS Annie Tomasini also spoke with Zients about limiting Biden’s schedule and shortening distances and stairs. According to Fox News, Zients “admitted that President Biden’s speech stumbles increased as he aged,” adding “He also noted that the president’s difficulty remembering dates and names worsened over time, including during the administration.”

Also interesting – Zients told investigators that Hunter Biden was involved in discussions about presidential pardons towards the end of Biden’s term, which included the blanket pardons of several members of the Biden family issued during Joe’s final 24 hours in office. It had been previously reported by NBC News that Hunter was sitting in on White House meetings following the former president’s horrible performance during a June 2024 debate against Donald Trump. Hunter received a “full and unconditional” pardon for his crimes in early December, just under two months before Joe left office.

Biden approved nearly 2,500 commutations on Jan. 17, days before leaving the White House, (and issued over 4,200 in total over his term) – the most of any US president, and the most ever in a single day. Zients also said that he did not personally send the email authorizing the use of the autopen, and that instead “he had an aide with access to his email account send the authorization on his behalf for some of the most controversial pardons in recent history.” The interview was part of an investigation by House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-KY) into Biden’s use of the autopen, and whether Biden’s top aides covered up his mental decline as part of their use of the autopen.

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Joe had said he would never pardon Hunter. And he didn’t.

Does This Prove Hunter Biden Orchestrated His Own Pardon? (Margolis)

The pieces of this puzzle are starting to come together, and what emerges is a picture that makes perfect sense when viewed through the lens of raw self-interest. Hunter Biden, a man who has spent decades leveraging his father’s position for personal gain, may have personally engineered his own presidential pardon. Why do I think this may have been the case? Well, Biden’s former chief of staff, Jeff Zients, revealed during his House Oversight Committee testimony this week that Hunter Biden wasn’t just sitting on the sidelines during those crucial final weeks of his father’s presidency—he was actively participating in pardon discussions, attending multiple meetings with White House aides. This is extraordinary, when considering that Hunter held no official position in the administration, and had no legitimate reason to be influencing such weighty executive decisions.

Yet there he was, the convicted felon son weighing in on clemency matters while his own legal troubles still hung over his head. The timing tells us everything we need to know. Joe Biden had repeatedly and categorically denied that he would pardon Hunter, making those assurances to the American people on multiple occasions throughout his presidency. Then, less than two months before leaving office, Biden suddenly executed a complete reversal, granting Hunter a “full and unconditional” pardon that covered nearly eleven years of potential criminal activity. This wasn’t just any pardon—it was uniquely comprehensive, stretching from Jan. 2014 through Dec. 2024, essentially providing blanket immunity for anything Hunter might have done during his most lucrative influence-peddling years.

Here’s where the story gets truly fascinating. While Joe Biden was using an autopen machine to sign nearly twenty-five hundred commutations and pardons for various family members and political allies in his final days, Hunter’s pardon received special treatment. It was the only pardon that Joe Biden himself hand-signed. This wasn’t an oversight or a sentimental gesture—it was calculated legal insurance. The investigation that James Comer has led has uncovered a troubling pattern of potential unauthorized decision-making during Biden’s mental decline, with questions swirling about whether the president was fully aware of all the executive actions taken in his name. Yet Hunter’s hand-signed pardon stands apart from this controversy. Why? Well, we know that the Biden White House knew that autopen pardons were treading in a legal gray zone.

Back in Feb. 2021, White House staff secretary Jess Hertz issued guidance making it clear that clemency actions needed Biden’s personal review and signature. But by Feb. 2024, things had clearly gone off the rails. A memo from Biden’s own White House Counsel’s office admitted that the process had eroded so much that Biden wasn’t even directly involved anymore—his approval was effectively reduced to whatever Kamala Harris signed off on. So not only did the White House know that Biden should have personally reviewed and signed clemency actions, but Biden had already largely checked himself out of the process during his final year in office. And yet Hunter was the only person who got a bona fide, hand-signed pardon. Are we supposed to believe that’s a coincidence?

Clearly, Hunter was aware that autopen-signed pardons were legally dubious, and wasn’t taking any chances. By attending those pardon meetings, he positioned himself to influence not just the scope of his clemency, but also its execution method. While his uncle James Biden, aunt Valerie Biden Owens, and other family members received autopen pardons, Hunter ensured his father personally signed his pardon—a pardon that Joe Biden said repeatedly he was not gonna grant. This action eliminated any potential legal challenge regarding the signature method, guaranteeing Hunter a legally ironclad pardon. Consider the broader context of Hunter’s legal jeopardy. He faced federal firearms charges and tax evasion charges that could have resulted in significant prison time.

More troubling for the Biden family, ongoing investigations into Hunter’s business dealings with foreign entities, particularly in Ukraine and China, threatened to expose the full extent of the family’s influence-peddling operation. Hunter’s pardon doesn’t just cover his known crimes—it preemptively shields him from prosecution for any federal offense he may have committed during those crucial eleven years. So was this really a father’s last-minute act of mercy, or a carefully orchestrated insurance policy that the beneficiary himself, Hunter Biden, negotiated? By inserting himself into pardon discussions and ensuring his clemency was hand-signed while others received potentially vulnerable autopen treatment, it sure looks as if Hunter essentially wrote himself the perfect get-out-of-jail-free card.

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“Lithuania has no fighters of its own. Not even one. So what she’s really demanding is that others light the match for World War Three. The small and often imaginary incidents, like this ‘incursion’, add up in the public mind with the effect of making it more anti-Russian.”

Media Disguise Airspace Violation Claims (MoA)

The warmongering stunts by the east European states and NATO are laughable.

“Russian Fighter Jets Enter Airspace of Estonia, a NATO Member (archived) – NY Times, Sep 19 2025. Estonia’s foreign minister described the flights, which lasted for an unusually long 12 minutes, as an “unprecedentedly brazen” intrusion. Three Russian fighter jets violated Estonia’s airspace on Friday for an unusually long period, some 12 minutes, in what Estonia’s foreign minister called an “unprecedentedly brazen” intrusion over the NATO country. NATO responded to intercept the Russian jets, Allison Hart, the military alliance’s spokeswoman, said in a statement on X. “This is yet another example of reckless Russian behavior and NATO’s ability to respond,” she said. [..]Tensions were already high after at least 21 Russian drones flew in Polish airspace 10 days ago, prompting NATO to scramble fighter jets to shoot down some of them. That incursion was regarded by Polish officials, who provided an updated count of the drones, as a deliberate effort to test the alliance’s readiness and a dangerous escalation of the war in Ukraine.“

The unarmed Russian Gebera decoy drones that flew over Poland do a have a range of some 600 kilometer (370 mi). If they had been launched from behind Russian lines they would not have reached Poland. The drones were most likely found in Ukraine, patched up and reprogrammed by Ukrainian services, and sent towards Poland. They were just on the ways Ukraine tries to drag NATO into its war. The ‘unprecedentedly brazen intrusion’ into the airspace of Estonia, if it has happened at all, did not take place over Estonia’s mainland but near Vaindloo, an uninhabited rock in the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea, some 26 kilometer (16 mi) north of the Estonian coast. The NY Times piece does, of course, NOT mention that. It is worded to make the reader believe that Estonia was somehow endangered.

The Russian military says that its jets did not violate Estonian airspace: “MOSCOW, September 20. /TASS/. Three Russian MiG-31 jets carried out a scheduled flight from Karelia to the Kaliningrad Region without violating Estonian airspace, the Russian Defense Ministry reported. “On September 19, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets made a scheduled flight from Karelia to an airfield in the Kaliningrad Region. The flight was conducted in strict accordance with international airspace rules, without violating the borders of other states, which is confirmed by objective monitoring. During the flight, the Russian aircraft did not deviate from the agreed flight path and did not violate Estonian airspace. The aircraft’s flight path lay over the neutral waters of the Baltic Sea, more than three kilometers from the island of Vaindloo,” the statement said.

The statements by Estonia’s foreign minister Margus Tsahkna amount, in sight of the facts, to hysterical nonsense: “Russia has violated Estonian airspace four times already this year, which is unacceptable in itself, but today’s violation, during which three fighter jets entered our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen,” Mr. Tsahkna said in a statement, which he issued in slightly different form on X. He called it “clear proof of Russia’s growing aggression.” Members of NATO should respond with more pressure on Moscow, Mr. Tsahkna said. “Russia’s ever-increasing testing of borders and aggressiveness must be responded to by rapidly strengthening political and economic pressure,” he said. Estonia summoned the Russian chargé d’affaires to protest the flights, the ministry said.

Estonia’s prime minister, Kristen Michal, said he would seek urgent talks with his NATO allies. “The Government of Estonia has decided to request NATO Article 4 consultations,” Mr. Michal wrote, invoking the section of the alliance’s charter that allows a member state to begin formal discussions about threats to its security. The ‘western’ media do not reveal the details of the ‘intrusion’. They no longer report, but disguise the facts to create opinions. On top of that some dimwit officials chip in: “Brian McDonald @27khv – 10:04 utc · Sep 20, 2025. – Lithuania’s defence minister falsely claims Russian jets flew “over Tallinn.” It was allegedly over Vaindloo Island in the Gulf of Finland, 100km from the capital. She then urges a replay of Turkey’s 2015 shoot-down (an F-16 bringing down a Russian Su-24).

The trouble is, Lithuania has no fighters of its own. Not even one. So what she’s really demanding is that others light the match for World War Three. The small and often imaginary incidents, like this ‘incursion’, add up in the public mind with the effect of making it more anti-Russian. This is one of the reasons why the president of Russia is concerned that we are sliding toward World War III.

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If you’re too small to count, but you thiink you can still start WWIII.

Lithuanian Defense Chief Urges Shooting Down Russian Warplanes (ZH)

A top government official from a NATO country is calling for shooting down Russian aircraft the next time they breach an alliance member’s airspace, following several drone and border incidents this month. “NATO’s border in the North East is being tested for a reason. We need to mean business,” Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene wrote on X Friday, the same day that three Russian warplanes reportedly breached neighboring Estonia’s airspace over the Gulf of Finland. “Three Russian fighter jets over Tallinn is one more hard proof that Eastern Sentry is long due,” she stated. The Lithuanian defense chief concluded her message by invoking an incident which makes clear she’s in favor of shooting down Russian jets.

“Türkiye set an example 10 years ago. Some food for thought,” the minister wrote. This was in reference to the unprecedented incident in which Turkish Air Force F-16s downed a Russian Su-24 over the Turkey-Syria border area in November 2015. Lithuania has joined Poland’s call for urgent consultations with members of the NATO alliance under its Article 4. Article 4 consultations can lead to the alliance taking action if the consensus is reached. Regional observer Notes from Poland says “It has previously been invoked seven times, including by Poland and seven other countries when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.” Upon Friday’s incident the Estonian foreign ministry described that three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets “entered Estonian airspace without permission and remained there for a total of 12 minutes.”

Additionally, EU diplomat Kaja Kallas, who hails from the Baltic country and was the first female prime minister, blasted the incursion as “an extremely dangerous provocation”. European leaders are using these increasing instances to push for an ‘eastern flank’ aerial defense shield protecting NATO. Just last week the two largest eastern members of NATO said that Russian drones breached their airspace. The Polish instance was the most serious, given Warsaw accused Russia of intentionally sending a ‘wave’ of drones – up to 19 – which resulted in its military urgently scrambling jets to track them. Trump later seemed to downplay the incident.

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“..the constant hysteria about Russia allegedly planning to attack Europe… is either a provocation or sheer incompetence.”

US ‘Quietly’ Curtailing Arms Sales To Western Europe – The Atlantic (RT)

The US has ‘quietly’ paused sales of certain weapons to its European allies, The Atlantic has reported. The Trump administration is seeking to stockpile arms as part of its ‘America First’ agenda. Washington has provided Kiev with over $67 billion in arms and military assistance since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022. Most of the deliveries were made under the administration of former US President Joe Biden. The Pentagon has now identified some weapons as being in short supply and is moving to block new requests for those systems from NATO countries, the outlet said in an article on Friday. The unnamed current and former US administration officials who spoke to The Atlantic could not say how long the hold will last or name the exact hardware on the list.

According to the report, the first evidence of a shift in policy was the Pentagon’s recent decision not to go ahead with the sale of “a multibillion-dollar” Patriot air-defense system to Denmark, despite US and French negotiators previously pressuring Copenhagen to make the purchase. US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby said during a call earlier this month that “he did not believe in the value of certain foreign military sales,” two administration officials told the outlet. The sources claimed that Colby also “did not like” the idea of selling Patriots to Denmark because they are in short supply and should remain in the US.

The Atlantic warned that a prolonged pause in weapons sales to Western Europe “risks creating new rifts with allies, weakening their defenses at a time when Russia poses an imminent threat, and diminishing US military influence across the continent.” Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated in early September that “the constant hysteria about Russia allegedly planning to attack Europe… is either a provocation or sheer incompetence.” “Russia has never had, does not have, and never will have any desire to attack anyone,” Putin said. As for the Ukraine conflict, it was provoked by the West, and Moscow is only defending itself, he stressed.

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He doesn’t want sanctions.

EU To Unlock €500mn In Bid For Orban’s Russia Sanctions Backing – FT (RT)

The European Commission is preparing to release more than half a billion euros in frozen funds for Hungary, as it seeks to overcome Budapest’s veto on the bloc’s latest package of sanctions against Russia, Financial Times has reported. The 19th package, put forward by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Friday, targets Russia’s energy, trade, and financial sector, as well as third-country buyers of Russian oil. To take effect, it must win unanimous approval from all 27 EU members. Hungary and Slovakia, which rely on Russian crude, have previously delayed or threatened to block sanctions.

Sources told FT that Brussels may release part of the €22 billion ($26 billion) in EU funds frozen for Hungary in 2022 over alleged rule-of-law concerns. The money comes from the Cohesion Fund, designed to narrow economic gaps between member states and support infrastructure, education, and social projects. After months of talks, the Commission is expected to approve around €550 million of the €605 million requested by Budapest in May under a midterm budget review. Brussels has previously released funds to head off Budapest’s veto threats. Last year, over €10 billion was unfrozen after the Commission claimed progress on judicial independence – a decision that came just before a summit on a €50 billion aid package for Ukraine. Another tranche followed when the EU said the country had made progress on gender equality, days after Hungary ratified Sweden’s NATO bid.

Earlier this year, Hungary also accessed €157 million through an EU rule allowing frozen funds to be reassigned. The new sanctions include a full ban on Russian LNG imports by January 2027. Brussels had previously dropped the idea of an outright embargo after opposition from Hungary and Slovakia, but revived it in May as part of a wider plan to phase out Russian oil and gas. This week, both countries signaled they would resist pressure to cut Russian energy supplies until alternatives are secured. Budapest said it would veto sanctions that threaten its supplies, calling the measures ineffective. Russia has repeatedly denounced sanctions as illegal, saying they primarily harm the countries that impose them.

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https://twitter.com/WallStreetApes/status/1969106503216038394
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1969254859456065920

https://twitter.com/buitengebieden/status/1969363162626469926

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in wartime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

 

 

 

 

 

Mar 162018
 


Pablo Picasso Women of Algiers (after Delacroix) 1955

 

The British Government’s Russia Nerve Agent Claims Are Bullshit (Nafeez Ahmed)
UK Claims Questioned About Source Of Salisbury Novichok (G.)
Buying Stocks Now Is Betting On Buybacks (F.)
Has Europe Really Recovered From Its 2008 Financial Meltdown? (Steve Keen)
UK Household Debt Levels Close To 2008 Peak (Ind.)
UK Economy In Grip Of Most Feeble Recovery On Modern Record – IFS (Ind.)
More Than 600,000 Britons Sought Help From Debt Charity Last Year (G.)
European Commission Rebuked Over Ex-Chief Barroso’s Goldman Sachs Job (G.)
Japan PM Shinzo Abe’s Cronyism Scandal Worsens (G.)
Greece’s Jobless Rate Jumps To 21.2% In Fourth Quarter (K.)
EU Provides Financial Support For Turkey Amid Ethnic Cleansing (ANF)
The Oxfam Scandal: There Is No Reward For Honest Charities (Crack)
Bali Switches Off Internet Services For 24 Hours For New Year ‘Reflection’ (G.)

 

 

Yesterday was a travel day, hence no post. I’m back in Greece for talks about the Automatic Earth for Athens project.

 

 

Nafeez takes no prisoners. There must be a strong counter narrative to the UK government’s attempt to deflect attention from its dismal performance by conjuring up a common enemy for all Britons. Either show proof or hold your tongue.

The British Government’s Russia Nerve Agent Claims Are Bullshit (Nafeez Ahmed)

[..] far from offering a clear-cut evidence-trail to Vladimir Putin’s chemical warfare labs, the use of Novichok in the nerve gas attack on UK soil points to a wider set of potential suspects, of which Russia is in fact the least likely. Yet a concerted effort is being made to turn facts on their head. No clearer sign of this can be found than in the statement by Ambassador Peter Wilson, UK Permanent Representative to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), in which he claimed that Russia has “failed for many years” to fully disclose its chemical weapons programme.

Wilson was parroting a claim made a year earlier by the US State Department that Russia had not made a complete declaration of its chemical weapons stockpile: “The United States cannot certify that Russia has met its obligations under the Convention.” Yet these claims are contradicted by the OPCW itself, which in September 2017 declared that the independent global agency had rigorously verified the completed destruction of Russia’s entire chemical weapons programme, including of course its nerve agent production capabilities. [..] The OPCW’s press statement confirmed that:

“The remainder of Russia’s chemical weapons arsenal has been destroyed at the Kizner Chemical Weapons Destruction Facility in the Udmurt Republic. Kizner was the last operating facility of seven chemical weapons destruction facilities in Russia. The six other facilities (Kambarka, Gorny, Maradykovsky, Leonidovka, Pochep and Shchuchye) completed work and were closed between 2005 and 2015.” [..] According to Craig Murray, former US Ambassador to Uzbekistan and prior to that a longtime career diplomat in the UK Foreign Office who worked across Africa, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia, the British government itself has advanced capabilities in Novichok:

“The ‘novochok’ group of nerve agents – a very loose term simply for a collection of new nerve agents the Soviet Union were developing fifty years ago – will almost certainly have been analysed and reproduced by Porton Down. That is entirely what Porton Down is there for. It used to make chemical and biological weapons as weapons, and today it still does make them in small quantities in order to research defences and antidotes. After the fall of the Soviet Union Russian chemists made a lot of information available on these nerve agents. And one country which has always manufactured very similar persistent nerve agents is Israel. ”

[..] A secret British intelligence unit is actively arranging ‘honey trap’ propaganda operations to incriminate ‘adversaries’

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People are subject to abuse for questioning the official story. At least Corbyn has the decency to ask for evidence.

UK Claims Questioned About Source Of Salisbury Novichok (G.)

It was a historic moment largely ignored at the time by most of the world’s media and might have remained so but for the attack in Salisbury. At a ceremony last November at the headquarters of the world body responsible for the elimination of chemical weapons in The Hague, a plaque was unveiled to commemorate the destruction of the last of Russia’s stockpiles. Gen Ahmet Üzümcü, the director general of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which works closely with the UN, was fulsome in his praise. “This is a major achievement,” he said. The 192-member body had seemingly overseen and verified the destruction of Russia’s entire stock of chemical weapons, all 39,967 metric tons.

The question now is whether all of Russia’s chemical weapons were destroyed and accounted for. Theresa May – having identified the nerve agent used in the Salisbury attack as novichok, developed in Russia – told the Commons on Wednesday that Russia had offered no explanation as to why it had “an undeclared chemical weapons programme in contravention of international law”. Jeremy Corbyn introduced a sceptical note, questioning whether there was any evidence as to the location of its production. The exchanges provoked a debate echoing the one that preceded the 2003 invasion of Iraq over whether UN weapons inspectors had overseen the destruction of all the weapons of mass destruction in the country or whether Saddam Hussein had retained secret hidden caches.

[..] The former British ambassador to Uzbekistan, Craig Murray, who visited the site at Nukus, said it had been dismantled with US help. He is among those advocating scepticism about the UK placing blame on Russia. In a blog post, he wrote: “The same people who assured you Saddam Hussein had WMDs now assure you Russian ‘novichok’ nerve agents are being wielded by Vladimir Putin to attack people on British soil.” [..] Murray, in a phone interview, is undeterred, determined to challenge the government line, in spite of having been subjected to a level of abuse on social media he had not experienced before. “There is no evidence it was Russia. I am not ruling out that it could be Russia, though I don’t see the motive. I want to see where the evidence lies,” Murray said. “Anyone who expresses scepticism is seen as an enemy of the state.”

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Casino.

Buying Stocks Now Is Betting On Buybacks (F.)

It is no secret that a large portion of the rally in equities over the last few years, and especially the rebound from the lows of early February, has been bolstered by the record amounts of capital sitting in the coffers of American corporations which, has naturally found its way into the stock market. This cash had three main sources. First, corporations built a large precautionary hoard of cash in the aftermath of the financial crisis to prevent being buffeted by credit markets, choosing to recycle their income into savings rather than spending. Some of this cash is now being unleashed. Second, the extremely low level of yields and spreads in the corporate bond markets allows the issuance of longer term bonds to willing yield-starved bond buyers and take in even more cash.

And finally, the tax reform unlocked foreign cash that came flowing back into the U.S. – a good fraction of which has gone into the stock market. This trifecta of positives (for the stock market) has created a systematic bid whenever markets correct downwards. The big question for investors is whether we can count on the buybacks to continue to provide the support on dips as the economic cycle matures. The question really is whether “Buying the Dip” is the same as “Buying the Buyback.” Just like the yield of a bond is the income that an investor receives from cash, the most important component of the yield on a stock is the dividend that the investor receives as the company pays out cash dividends.

The total yield from holding a stock is the sum of the dividend yield and the “buyback” yield. The buyback yield is simply the capital returned to investors divided by the market value of the stock. To compare the relative yield value of stocks and bonds, then, we should compare the yield on bonds and the total yield on stocks. What has been a direct consequence of the large buying of bonds by central banks until recently is that investors have been buying stocks for their total yield since this yield has been much higher than the comparable bond yields. One could also argue that investors have been buying bonds for capital appreciation, not yield. Otherwise why would one hold negatively yielding securities in Europe? Bonds for capital gains, equities for yield – very interesting!

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Household debt. That’s the focal point.

Has Europe Really Recovered From Its 2008 Financial Meltdown? (Steve Keen)

There’s no doubt that Europe is recovering, and those factors have been part of it. But so is another element which economists, especially Krugman himself, continue to ignore: credit. Not only Europe’s crisis, but America’s and the UK’s as well in 2008, was due to a collapse in credit-based demand. In fact, Europe is back largely because credit is back: European (and American and British) consumers and firms are borrowing once again and unleashing that borrowed money into their economies, boosting demand and lowering unemployment. This means the recovery can continue only so long as households and firms can keep getting into debt. Yet, given private debt levels are still high when compared to GDP, it won’t be long before the national credit cards are maxed out again. Then the borrowing will stop, and the recovery will run out of steam.

So why aren’t economists warning of this dark lining in the silver cloud of economic recovery? It’s because they don’t think that credit matters, and they ignore it when making forecasts about where the economy is likely to go. Their logic is that credit simply transfers spending power from one person to another, so changes in the level of private debt only affect the economy if the borrower has substantially different spending patterns to the lender. To use Krugman’s own language here, rising private debt will only affect demand if the borrowers are “impatient people” who spend a lot, while the lenders are “patient people” who spend very little. This implies that large changes in private debt should have only small effects on the macroeconomy.

I could get all theoretical here and prove why this belief is false, but it’s rather easy to show what the biologist Thomas Huxley once described as “no sadder sight in the world,” which is “to see a beautiful theory killed by a brutal fact.” If the theory that credit doesn’t matter were true, then credit and unemployment would be unrelated to each other. But they are! Here’s a killing of this beautiful theory by a brutal fact that’s worthy of a Game of Thrones beheading: Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the relationship between credit (the annual change in private debt, measured as a percentage of GDP) and unemployment in Spain, between 1990 and July 2017 (the latest quarter for which there is data on debt from the Bank of International Settlements).

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You can see the wall ahead that hey’re about to crash into.

UK Household Debt Levels Close To 2008 Peak (Ind.)

Worrying numbers of householders may be “in too deep” with their borrowing, a city regulator boss has told a credit conference. Jonathan Davidson, executive director of supervision for retail and authorisations at the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), said credit levels were close to a peak seen in 2008. He said the FCA would take action against firms whose businesses were based on people being unable to clear their debts. More can be done to pre-empt future harm to customers, he said, warning: “There are a significant number of households that are in so deep that the slightest sign of rough weather could see them in over their heads.” He said it was “far from certain” that some customers who could just manage to afford loans now would be able to do so in future.

Mr Davidson told the audience: “A business model that is predicated on selling products to customers who can’t afford to repay them is not acceptable. “We will take action against firms who run their businesses this way.” He said that while most borrowers could still comfortably afford their credit, the industry should “think strategically about the issues facing your customers”, adding that this was “the right thing to do, not only for your customers, but for the future of your businesses”. Mr Davidson said the consumer credit sector, which comprises nearly 40,000 firms registered with the FCA, was part of everyday life, serving around 39 million people, whether it was to help finance a car, a big purchase or to make ends meet towards the end of the month.

He said some arrears and default rates, while still low, were on the rise, begging the question: “If we’re seeing this pattern now, what would happen if there was an economic downturn?” Speaking at the Credit Summit in London, Mr Davidson said: “Total credit lending to individuals is currently very close to its September 2008 peak.

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What QE has brought us. This is a global phenomenon revealed stronger and sooner in Britain because of, but not caused by, Brexit.

UK Economy In Grip Of Most Feeble Recovery On Modern Record – IFS (Ind.)

The UK has been living through the most feeble and protracted economic recovery in modern British history, leaving people on course to be almost £9,000 worse off on average by 2022-23 relative to the pre-crisis trend, according to calculations by the Institute for Fiscal Studies. In its analysis of the Government’s Spring Statement on Tuesday, which contained no new tax or spending measures, the think tank took a longer term perspective on the performance of the UK economy in the decade since the UK economy first sank into recession in 2008. It has long been noted that the UK’s recovery from that slump has been the slowest since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

But, analysing historic data on UK GDP per capita, the IFS showed on Wednesday that it has been weaker even than what followed the agonising slump of the early 1920s. In that era output per person fell by 10%, as global industrial overcapacity in the wake of the First World War ravaged once mighty UK firms, resulting in mass unemployment. The UK recession after the global financial crisis was shallower, with GDP per capita falling by around 7% as banks failed and global trade fell off a cliff. Yet a decade after the 1920-21 recession UK output per person was more than 10% higher than before the crisis. Today it is only around 3% higher than it was in 2008-09. “The history matters,” said Paul Johnson, the IFS’s director.

“It matters in part because we should never stop reminding ourselves just what an astonishing decade we have just lived through and continue to live through.” The UK has avoided the mass unemployment that scarred the 1920s and indeed employment has grown strongly since 2010, but the chronic weakness of UK GDP and productivity growth since 2008 is the reason why average real wages are still below where they were a decade ago – and are not set to return to their peak until well into the next decade. The IFS also produced calculations showing that if the pre-crisis trend of GDP per capita growth had continued national income per person would today be £5,900 higher this year. By 2022-23, on current official projections, the financial hit per person will grow to £8,600.

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Third world here we come.

More Than 600,000 Britons Sought Help From Debt Charity Last Year (G.)

More than 600,000 people in financial difficulties last year sought help from the debt charity StepChange, including disproportionate numbers of single parents and those in rental accommodation. The charity said 619,946 new clients contacted it for debt advice last year – 3.5% more than in 2016, and 22% more than four years earlier. There has been a notable increase in recent years in the number of young people seeking debt advice: about one in seven new clients was under 25, and nearly two-thirds were under 40. Most people (80%) contacting the charity were tenants, even though only a third of UK households rent. More than a fifth (21.5%) of new clients, though only 6% of UK households are single-parent families.

The average couple with children owed £16,834 last year, while single parents had unsecured debts of £10,033. Unemployment was the most common reason why people were in financial difficulty, cited by 18.7%, followed by injury or illness (16.4%) and lack of budgeting (14.3%). About two-fifths of people have fallen behind on at least one of their priority household bills when they contact the charity, typically on council tax. Borrowing on credit cards remains the most common debt, with more than two-thirds of new clients having accumulated credit card debts. Other borrowings included store cards, overdrafts, personal loans, doorstep and payday loans.

[..] Phil Andrew, the chief executive of StepChange, said: “It is both striking and shocking that last year about one in every 100 UK adults contacted StepChange alone for debt advice. “Our clients show that the debt problem is far from solved. With the prospect of higher interest rates ahead, it would be a mistake to take too much reassurance from the gradual improvement in the wider economy.”

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This is Brussels. Simple as that. The next crony case is already known in the person of Selmayr. More on that soon. There are a few decent people in Brussels, but they don’t have much time left.

European Commission Rebuked Over Ex-Chief Barroso’s Goldman Sachs Job (G.)

An EU watchdog has rebuked the European commission for failing to prevent potential lobbying by a former president who took a job at Goldman Sachs. In a stinging report, Emily O’Reilly, the European ombudsman who acts as the EU’s public administration watchdog, said the commission had committed “maladministration” by not taking any decision after an ethics inquiry into its former president, José Manuel Barroso. O’Reilly called on the commission to refer Barroso’s appointment to its internal ethics committee, while raising questions about the independence of that body. “Ex-commissioners have a right to post-office employment, but as former public servants they must also ensure that their actions do not undermine citizens’ trust in the EU,” said O’Reilly, Ireland’s former national ombudsman.

She said Barroso’s new post had “generated serious public disquiet”, which should have raised commission concerns about whether he had complied with the “duty of discretion” incumbent on all former officeholders under EU treaties. “Much of the recent negative sentiment around this issue could have been avoided if the commission had at the time taken a formal decision on Mr Barroso’s employment with Goldman Sachs. Such a decision could at least have required the former president to refrain from lobbying the commission on behalf of the bank,” she said.

[..] Barroso, a former Portuguese prime minister, led the commission for a decade until 2014. He took a job at Goldman Sachs in July 2016, after an 18-month cooling-off period during which ex-officials are required to notify the commission of any new jobs and are banned from lobbying. His decision to become a Brexit adviser at the bank triggered an avalanche of criticism, especially as Goldman Sachs had come under fire for its alleged role in the Greek debt crisis that dominated Barroso’s final years in Brussels. More than 150,000 people signed an EU staff petition calling for Barroso to lose his EU pension..

The commission has been set a deadline of 6 June 2018 to make a formal response to the ombudsman. Responding to the report, which followed a one-year investigation, the commission’s chief spokesman said: “The former president joined his current employer after the then applicable cooling-off period of 18 months. “The commission drew a political conclusion from the situation that we inherited by extending this cooling-off period for former presidents from 18 months to three years.”

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Abe had better leave while he can.

Japan PM Shinzo Abe’s Cronyism Scandal Worsens (G.)

A cronyism scandal engulfing the Japanese government has taken a dark turn, with reports that a finance official left a note before his suicide saying that he was forced to rewrite crucial records. The finance ministry admitted this week that it had altered 14 documents surrounding the sale of public land at an 85% discount to a nationalistic school operator with links to prime minister Shinzo Abe’s wife Akie. The revisions, made early last year, included removing references to Abe and the first lady before the records were provided to parliamentarians investigating suspicions of influence-peddling. An official from the local finance bureau that oversaw the transaction was found dead at his home in Kobe last week.

Now it has been revealed the man, aged in his 50s, left a detailed suicide note stating he was worried he might be forced to take all the blame. He said his superiors had told him to change the background section of the official documents surrounding the Osaka land sale because they were supposedly too specific, according to public broadcaster NHK. He reportedly made it clear that he did not act alone but in line with finance ministry instructions. His family described him as an honourable man who “hated to do anything unfair”. He had told relatives in August last year that he was “worn out both mentally and physically” and his “common sense has been destroyed”. “I hope everything will be revealed. I don’t want his death to be wasted,” said a family member…

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How to spell recovery.

Greece’s Jobless Rate Jumps To 21.2% In Fourth Quarter (K.)

Greece’s jobless rate rose by a full %age point to 21.2% in October-to-December from 20.2% in the third quarter, data from the country’s statistics service ELSTAT showed on Thursday. About 71.8% of Greece’s 1.006 million jobless are long-term unemployed, meaning they have been out of work for at least 12 months, the figures showed. Greece’s highest unemployment rate was recorded in the first quarter of 2014, when joblessness hit 27.8%. Athens has already published monthly unemployment figures through December, which differ from quarterly data because they are based on different samples and are seasonally adjusted. Quarterly figures are not seasonally adjusted. Greece’s economy grew for a fourth straight quarter in October-December, driven by stronger investment spending, but the pace was slower than in the previous quarter.

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That EU-Turkey refugee deal looks darker by the minute. Dirty politics.

EU Provides Financial Support For Turkey Amid Ethnic Cleansing (ANF)

The European Commission gave a green light to a second financial aid package for Turkey on the grounds of Syrian refugees. The 3 billion euros allocated for Turkey will be given in the scope of the controversial refugee deal. Several human rights organizations protested the renewed financial aid package for Turkey, arguing that it is not humanitarian as Turkey has openly used refugees as a means of blackmail against the European Union. Turkey had received another 3 billion euros of financial aid before. The European Commission defended that this second package will be granted to Turkey to provide convenience for the refugees.

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No, really, it’s an industry.

The Oxfam Scandal: There Is No Reward For Honest Charities (Crack)

Abuse thrives under two conditions: when victims are afraid to speak out, and when those in power do not listen. Oxfam have been condemned for not listening to demands that they do more to address sexual violence before the Haiti scandal hit the headlines. However, the net of blame needs to be cast wider than NGOs. Those at the top of the aid chain – donor governments – did not listen to warnings of wrongdoing. Donors do not have a good record of being proactive when presented with evidence of abuse. It has emerged that the Dutch Foreign Ministry was given an internal Oxfam report in 2012 detailing the use of prostitutes by staff in Haiti. No action appears to have been taken.

The Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), was told by one of its own officials in 2008 that Roland van Hauwermeiren, the former Oxfam employee at the centre of the Haiti allegations, left another NGO following an investigation into sexual misconduct. Rather than take action, SIDA awarded more than £500k to Oxfam in Chad, where Van Hauwermeiren was county director. In the UK, the Department for International Development (DFID) and the Charity Commission were told by Oxfam in 2011 that staff had been sacked for sexual misconduct, with assurances that no beneficiaries were involved. Priti Patel, former international development secretary, claims that she raised the issue of sexual violence with DFID officials, only for it to be “dismissed as only a problem with UN peacekeepers”.

My research into NGO regulation has led me to ask: do government donors create the impression that they will only fund organisations with glowing track records? NGOs that receive aid money are expected to complete detailed reports that assess measurable outcomes. I have interviewed several senior managers in leading NGOs who described how the pressure to demonstrate value for money drives a tick-box culture where all the incentives are to make the reports as positive as possible. Respondents felt there was very little tolerance for charities that make mistakes.

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There are still a few smart people left.

Bali Switches Off Internet Services For 24 Hours For New Year ‘Reflection’ (G.)

Internet services on Bali will go dark this Saturday, with providers switching off mobile services for 24 hours to mark the Indonesian island’s annual day of silence. Nyepi, or New Year according to the ancient Balinese calendar, is a sacred day of reflection on the Hindu-majority island. Even the international airport shuts down. This year authorities have called on telecommunications companies to unplug – a request Bali says firms have promised to honour. “It was agreed that internet on mobile phones will be cut. All operators have agreed,” Nyoman Sujaya, from the Bali communications ministry, told tirto.id. The plan, based on an appeal put forward by Balinese civil and religious groups, was announced following a meeting at the ministry in Jakarta.

This is the first time internet services will be shut down in Bali for Nyepi, after the same request was denied last year. However, wifi connection will still be available at hotels and for strategic services such as security, aviation, hospitals and disaster agencies. Phone and SMS services will be operational, but the Indonesian Internet Service Provider Association is reviewing whether wifi at private residences will be temporarily cut. Indonesia is one of the most connected nations on earth, with more than 132 million internet users. Balinese governor Made Pastika said it would not hurt to refrain from using the internet for one day. “If the internet is disconnected, people will not die,” he joked to reporters. “I will turn off my gadgets during Nyepi.”

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