Are You Going to Believe Your Masters or Your Lying Eyes?
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March 14, 2012 at 7:21 pm #8588
Commentary by El Gallinazo. Under what Bill Gross describes as “the new paranormal,” one has to ask, what exactly do these market caps and index futur
[See the full post at: Are You Going to Believe Your Masters or Your Lying Eyes?]March 14, 2012 at 9:10 pm #1670
Perhaps the funny money and promises of years of zero interest rates are finally having the intended effect? Postpone the apocalypse again? It has been going on for quite a while.March 14, 2012 at 10:06 pm #1672
The apocalypse is well under way right now on Main Street! The S&P500 may well be over 2000 up to the final scene. Guess I didn’t express it well enough. Back to remedial writing class for me 🙁March 14, 2012 at 10:19 pm #1674
We may think it is under way, but a greater number think it has passed. S&P over 2000 would sure be one hell of a final scene. Talk about the fat lady singing!March 14, 2012 at 10:57 pm #1676
Hi El Gallinazo
I like your commentary. Here in the UK, yesterday, there was quite a good science documentary (“Horizon”) about the powers of the subconsious. They alluded to some recent research that showed people were on average optimistic about the future, that they only assimilate good news and discard the bad. The program seemed to spin this as evololutionarily adaptive (which it might be).
An example of this was asking a person to rate his chances of suffering from cancer during his lifetime. The real statistical rate was then given to the person. If it was lower that their guess, they remembered it, if it was higher, they did not.
It made me think of you, El gal, and the readership of TAE in general because we have the uncommon ability to consider bad news outcomes.
I think, unless more people learn to believe their lying eyes, the Owners’ program will continue.
The problem for me is that it makes it very difficult to calculate when the financial system will actually break down here on a local level.
I think that in the Soviet Union during the financial collapse in the ’90s, Lots of critical staff for example, doctors, nuclear technicians etc. still went to work even though they had not been paid for long time and the prospect of pay was not high.
I wonder whether society held some of it’s normality together because of desperate hope.
Will this happen in the UK or USA?March 14, 2012 at 11:01 pm #1677rapierParticipant
International corporations and their assets, and debt perhaps, are somehow going to become the worlds base store of value. Assuming that is that TAE’s and JH Kuntler’s word does not descend upon us. At any rate that plan, or should I say the current movement of history suggests that corporations since they are supercedeing government as the acendent human organizing model will somehow create a system where their value is the base of all value.
Let’s recall that it is governments who are going broke while corporations are flush with gigantic stores of cash or near cash or are at least allowed to claim so and there is nobody in authority to contradict them.
Mulitnational corporations are already, essentially, sovereign. Untouched or untouchable by government. They write the laws and choose who they are enforced against.
Don’t bet against corporations or alternately bet with them to a degree as a hedge. The degree to which the devolution of the modern world goes in TAE’s direction is not certain and the speed certainly isn’t. However as the process advances, if it advances, we know that our elites are 100% dedicated to maintaining and advancing the prices and ‘values’ of corporate assets. Nothing else matters to them. There seems no limit to number of tens, of millions, of former middle class people in the developed world who are being shoved under the bus who have roused the slightest sympathy from our elites after all. Since all the political and military power in the West, and it allies and clients elsewhere are all in on the project of corporation over people it’s rather silly to bet against them.March 14, 2012 at 11:08 pm #1678
I think the quality of the articles and posts recently has been really good, Thanks to all concerned, particularly Ilargi and Ashvin.
Fundamental questions are being tackled here.
My view is that the world economy is now supercritical like liquid water below zero degrees. Any seed crystal will cause it to freeze up like “Ice 9” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice-nine
I’m not looking forward to that!March 14, 2012 at 11:14 pm #1679
Don’t you think that there might be a phase change at some point when the ability of the corporations to accrue wealth is thwarted by the level of damage to the economy? Like the break up of the Roman Empire?March 14, 2012 at 11:19 pm #1680
Haven’t seen you here in a coons age. I am not going to argue with you on a “practical” level. I guess it depends on whether you would choose to die a freeman or live as a slave. Shouting “I am Sparticus” sure felt good until the nails went in your wrists. But I think it is easier to choose the former if you are approaching one’s natural span. Less downside risk; mainly the discomfort index. All the water you can breath in the FEMA camps.March 15, 2012 at 1:02 am #1682
rapier, corporations are 100pc into maintaining prices and values insofar as they can maintain values and prices. then they’re not. finance aside (and LG’s zero-point energy scenario), i’ll take the Senecan drop into Olduvai over the fiat float any day of the week.
“International corporations and their assets, and debt perhaps, are somehow going to become the worlds base store of value. Assuming that is that TAE’s and JH Kuntler’s word does not descend upon us.”
why wouldn’t that be the case in the neo-feudal doom-lite scenario?
and thanks for leaving the s out of that fool’s name.March 15, 2012 at 1:07 am #1683NZSanctuaryMember
It seems that corporate hubris is reaching such a magnitude that even clients are no longer a part of the success equation. I guess if you own government (and hence the law), who needs client consent/approval anyway.
From the comment section of an article linked through TAE on FaceMash, says one client of Goldman Sachs:
“In one of these investments (which has lost 35% of its value since 2008), Goldman even refuses to provide basic information, like estimates of income or expenses for tax planning purposes. I literally have to guess the income my K-1 will show when I file my taxes in April, because Goldman won’t even give me an estimate (much less quarterly or annual commentary or disclosure by the fund managers). In many years, the fund shows substantial interest income (on which I have to pay taxes), but none of that income is ever distributed to me and the NAV of the fund simultaneously goes down. Where did the income go? When asked, Goldman refuses to provide specifics (even though I am a limited partner of the investment partnership and have a right to this information). “March 15, 2012 at 1:09 am #1684NZSanctuaryMember
Comment above quoted from the comment section under the article here: https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/opinion/why-i-am-leaving-goldman-sachs.html?pagewanted=2&_r=2March 15, 2012 at 2:32 am #1685Reverse EngineerMember
Carbon waste life form post=1279 wrote: Hi rapier
Don’t you think that there might be a phase change at some point when the ability of the corporations to accrue wealth is thwarted by the level of damage to the economy? Like the break up of the Roman Empire?
A phase change is one metaphor you could use, but since.the outcomes of phase changes are predictable, I think the better metaphor is the Event Horizon, where what will occur on the Other Side is not knowable.
Its very common byextrapolating on past trends to conclude we are working into Globalized Neo-Feudal Corporatacracy. However, development of this model reqired extraordinary inputs of energy and complexity of which HFT Algos are only a small part. What occurs when these systems fail is not predictable.
The outcomes here are not written in stone, in Georgia or anywhere else. The opportunities for great change will come with the failure of the Conduits. You just better be ready for it when it comes, because its a once in Millenia Opportunity, and you will not get a second chance when it knocks on your door.
REMarch 15, 2012 at 2:36 am #1686
Golden Oxen post=1274 wrote: We may think it is under way, but a greater number think it has passed. S&P over 2000 would sure be one hell of a final scene. Talk about the fat lady singing!
What the greater number think is proven wrong over and over again. When you get a 95% optimism in the stock market, it’s time to head for the hills. There are very simple reasons for this dealing with short to long ratios, etc.
Let me try to be more explicit. Barring a total thermonuclear war (which IMO has a significant probability), there is no “final scene.” What I meant by that was the next crash, which will be bigger than 2008, or to be even more explicit, when the S&P500 drops below the number of the beast. What I was trying to convey is that the stock markets are so rigged, rife with fraud, leveraged on nothing of value, and divorced from fundamentals, that it would not be very improbable that the S&P500 could be over 2000 a week before the big one starts rolling down the mountain. The other thing that I was trying to convey was that the real economy on Main Street is in a continuous and steady decline and no rigging of the equities markets is going to change that. However, when the next crash occurs, it will almost surely be simultaneous with a total freeze up of the credit markets which will throw a many millions more people under the bus in a matter of months.March 15, 2012 at 5:30 am #1690alfbellMember
So if there is a credit freeze, what is the best position to assume in order to be best prepared for this?
Would I be correct in saying…
1) no debt (mortgage, auto, credit card)
2) plenty of cash in the bank and in your mattress
3) not in the stock or bond market
4) some gold and silver
If so, anything else?March 15, 2012 at 8:51 am #1693MadisonFarmerMember
@ alfbell: Your answer will be found in the Primers section (look up and to the right. It’s under the banner), especially under “How to Build a Lifeboat”. An important deviation from your stated points would be a very limited trust in banks. That is to say, if you don’t have a key to the vault, then don’t put anything in there you’re not willing to lose. If you do have a key to the vault, you’re probably a banker, which means you should learn some useful life skills like growing food in preparation for a time when the Parasite Class has fewer members. The old Foxfire books might be a good place to start with that.
PMs can be nice, so long as you don’t need to liquidate them in the foreseeable future (think decades), and they don’t get stolen by thugs like Don Corzine (as in no GLD or brokers) or the Feds (if you buy in quantity and report it). If you want relative security for bulk cash go to ww.treasurydirect.gov and juggle staggered 3mos. Lumpy mattresses and bare patches in the yard can be hazardous to your health when surrounded by desperate people. Life skills and good relations with neighbors are much more important in my book; certainly less risky.March 15, 2012 at 11:51 am #1695
@ e g Sir, I agree completely with you on your S%P corrupt rig analysis and think it extends to other markets as well. My refernce as to a greater number think it has passed was referring to the US economy. I can assure that if a number, just approaching 95%, feels the worst has passed for the economy, then the apocalaypse will indeed be delayed for a while. I agree with you on the outcome, just the timing and route are out of sync. My instincts tell me we are in for a good dose of hyper inflation before Humpty Dumpty falls off the wall. Just a guess that I discern from watching the purchasing power of my fiat dollars over the last six decades.March 15, 2012 at 8:49 pm #1708
Firstly, Who are they? “They” have variously been described as banksters, elites, money masters, Oligarchs, etc., you have all seen various names applied to those who are supposedly “pulling the strings.”
What if “they” don’t exist??? What if, like ‘terrorist’ they’re a figment of an overly active imagination… a convenient one for governmental leaders but imaginary nonetheless.
I believe this emphasis on a financial cabal is misdirection. I believe “they” don’t exist, just like this supposedly world-wide terrorist plot to destroy the U.S. doesn’t exist. It’s a convenient red herring so I believe it’s given space in our media as it takes the focus off the bumblers in government who couldn’t find their ass with both hands.
The real, and only problem, is our debt monetary system. Damon Vrabel explained it well in his series of videos and they’re worth a look if you can find them. The solution is a whole new monetary system that does not condemn us to debt slavery. However, such a system requires an educated and moral society where laws are not required to compel people to do the right thing. Today’s society does not even know what the right thing is. We will get this new system only when we the people can govern ourselves, something we’ve not been capable of for a couple of centuries.March 16, 2012 at 1:24 am #1731
Well we totally agree that Damon Vrabel does an excellent job of laying out the money system, but I think we disagree about what he said. For example, as early as 4’40” into Lesson #2 he starts naming the banks and countries in the international banking cartel. Yes, he repeatedly used the word “cartel.” He then says that Germany and Japan were integrated into it as a direct result of their loss in WW II. It was whispered around the internet by fairly responsible people that he had received death threats because of his lessons. As we agree, his lessons are great but it might be time for a refresher viewing, particularly that little circle top right on the left half division of the board. Now that I think of it, I could use a refresher course myself.March 16, 2012 at 3:52 am #1740BabbleParticipant
There is no such thing as we the people governing ourselves. Perhaps the warlords of Somalia is close and how did that work? A new monetary system will fail too and a gold standard is no solution. I agree that the chance for another credit bubble/freeze is pretty likely but so is our US disintegration into two countries caused by religion.March 16, 2012 at 4:53 am #1743
I agree Babble, we have not governed ourselves, not for a very long time. Perhaps it’ll take another 1000 years before we’re capable of doing so. It is however a matter of personal and spiritual development. Our founders made a valiant effort to construct a constitutional republic, undermined finally by cabal of wealth who thought they had a better way. Now that system enslaves the people. You’ll have a much better chance of destroying the system than trying to destroy the Oligarchs.
Truth in a land of lies is a threat to the system. Those who speak truth will soon be branded terrorist. It’s going to be a long hard road.March 16, 2012 at 5:33 am #1747GlenndaParticipant
Many thanks M111ark and El G for the mention of Damon Vrabel. I was finally able to find his blog. What an evening’s education!
Then I realized that his last blog was on Jan. 8, 2011. A whole year ago. So what is he doing now? After all his good analysis of the “cartel” or old money banking system, he seemingly suddenly stops blogging, saying that it’s
“4. Putting all blame on the top of the system is biased and psychologically immature. Labeling a group “all bad” is an example of splitting—a primitive defense mechanism we tend to use to maintain an illusion of “all good” for ourselves, our country, our political party, etc. Some of my articles and videos intentionally played the splitting game because the media is designed to exacerbate splits, so if I wanted to pursue media work, I needed to play the game. But splitting is very harmful to society, so I will no longer do it. Moreover, as stated in #2, almost everyone contributes to the system so blaming only the top would be disingenuous.”
I’m seriously wondering about “almost everyone contributes to the system”. He seems to have despaired of convincing the bulk of our friends and neighbors of coming crash. Sure many or most are filled with MSM mis-info, but there is a germ of folks doing Urban Homesteading and focusing on going Local.
The localized networks of people who garden, raise chickens etc and do time banks is what will give a few a chance to survive the hard times to come. As the crunch tightens my friends who can are helping our other friends by hiring them to help in their homes or small businesses. Now if I can think of a “business” that could hire lots of people to help other people survive, that would be the ticket.
So maybe Vrabel is out doing interfaith work at his local Occupy movement group since he seems to have a moral theoretical frame for his work. Faith groups have historically helped feeding people etc. I hope so. If not then, that’s what I plan to do, along with things like a Jubilee and an anti-usury movement.March 16, 2012 at 8:11 pm #1770
Those vids you’ve found are excellent, however, I’m speaking of the six he did that explained the monetary system. Those are harder to find. He obviously got too close to the truth… probably laying low. Probably a good idea.March 17, 2012 at 12:12 am #1782
Isn’t this the first of the Vrabel lessons that we were writing about? Came right up with Google.March 17, 2012 at 2:05 am #1786Reverse EngineerMember
I watched a couple of DVs videos, they are a good primer onMonetary systems. However, he makes one contrary argument to his own thesis which I find appalling.
“We Americans have chosen the material benefits of being managed by the financial system for generations. We like demand-side freedom, i.e. choosing between Coke and Pepsi, but don’t want supply-side freedom. We like the supply-side to be taken care of for us. We love the benefits that come from it being imperially run—the credit card always works, the gas station is always open, our water faucets and light switches do what they’re supposed to do, the markets keep going up (oops…maybe not). All of our economic needs are outsourced to others, so we have the luxury of spending our time pursuing wants. And if these types of benefits are good for us, they’re good for the rest of the world. We have no moral authority to stand opposed just because we’re now going to lose our privileged position—a rather childlike perspective.”
Wait a minute…in his very first video Damon explains how ALL the conduits, including Media, Advertising and Education are controlled. On the one hand he wants to Blame All Equally, because the Victims here of the Brainwashing are “childlike” and WANT to be Imperially controlled. Where however is the CHOICE when you are conditioned from birth to want these things? Essentially, he contradicts himself because his philosophy doesn’t match the reality, there IS Blame here and its NOT distributed equally between the Victims and the Perps. Sorry Damon, that is just WRONG philosophy.March 17, 2012 at 3:26 am #1795GlenndaParticipant
So what’s up? now the copy for #1268 has vanished.
Hacker troll? or malfunction in the first posts of threads? Is the system being worked on and I’m seeing a glitch?March 17, 2012 at 10:21 pm #1817
Have to disagree with you RE. You and I have made the choice, however, are we not still living within the beast, doing all the things those who still sleep do? I know some who’ve made the choice to disconnect from the grid, however, they’re still engaged in life; working, buying, spending, etc.
It’s the SYSTEM. That’s what I meant when said no one has realized the consequences of debt money. Well, some have. Damon has but I’ve not seen that recognition on your web site.
People have emailed Damon asking who are these capital machine masters. He’s explained, it’s really not about individuals, the system is designed to favor a small bunch of people., True, a few have understood the system and take advantage of it, but it’s the system that must be changed. Simply removing these so-called money masters only makes room for those next in line. Change the system and most of the problems resulting from the system get cured.
Also, why are you picking at nits??? when there’s an 800 pound gorilla in the room? I don’t know what Damon or anyone else could do to make it any more clear!!! Focus my friend.
Also, yes El gal, that’s the first of six vids on debunking money. There’s also a seventh, where he explains why he’s undertaking to get this message out. Seems it’s very difficult though to get people to understand the destructive ponzi nature of sovereign debt money.March 17, 2012 at 11:28 pm #1819
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