Cognitive dissonance


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    Viscount St. Albans

    I know it’s darkest before the dawn……or brightest before the dusk.
    Nevertheless, I can’t help but feel as though the folks in charge are neatly and efficiently ticking the boxes next to one problem after another on our litany of woe. I never thought it would be possible, but it sure seems like they’re doing it.

    1) Unsolvable Europe seems well contained now.
    2) Housing settlements and mortgage relief.
    3) Employment stats improving (even if you say they’re rigged, then the rigged #s are still better than yester-years rigged #s).
    4) Markets happy and getting happier all the time.
    5) The crescendo in the real estate market here in Silicon Valley is palpable, with newly minted millionaires on every block, Ferraris on every street corner.

    If you live in Silicon Valley (e.g. Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Hillsborough etc. ), then you can’t help but feel that life is beautiful. The wealth of the world is pouring into this cozy little pocket with blue skies, cool breezes, and a view of the waves.



    I feel the exact opposite, and I don’t think it’s just a constant state of “doomerism”, because I’ve felt closer to how you feel before. First, you are correct to note that it is “brightest before the dusk” or “calmest before the storm”, as extensive levels of complacency in the face of worsening fundamentals on every level usually signal a peak in mood, confidence, valuations, etc.

    Second, there is nothing about Europe that has been contained. Many mainstream analysts, at least the semi-respectable ones, agree that there is no good way out for Greece anymore, regardless of what kind of deals they reach. Way too many moving parts that want to collide into each other rather than function as an efficient machine.

    And all the US data manipulation, settlements with criminal banksters, MF Global looting without any prosecutions, police state tactics and ridiculous political theater is just destroying whatever confidence the people had left in their leaders to do anything competently or justly. Perception of the US economy may benefit some more as the Euro situation depends, but once the bank runs start, that will change very quickly.

    Viscount St. Albans

    Hi Ash,

    Good points. I mostly enjoy your writing and it’s filled with quality ideas and concepts. That said, a point of critque: Your adjectives are somewhat clunky and unnecessary. They’re too earnest. We got it the first time. Sometimes you can dispense with the megaphone.

    “criminal banksters”
    “Global looting”
    “ridiculous political theater”

    You’ve got a vicious verbal rapier; there’s no need to wield a bludgeon with your free hand. Leave the club to the dimwitted who need a large target. We’ve plenty of those on the intertubes.

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