COVID Equals Groundhog Day
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Paul Cézanne The Card Players 1892-3 When politicians across the globe tell you they listen to “the science” when defining their COVID m
[See the full post at: COVID Equals Groundhog Day]The case some of us have been making seems to get stronger and stronger as time passes. Which leads to the next thought in the chain, if we’re being lied to, why? My first thought goes to it being political. When this first began, people would say how can the entire world be in on it? Well, we all know that the rest of the world hates trump as much as some here, i remember viewing a g-7 pic of trump on one side of the room while the rest of the leaders give him the stink eye. I’ve been paying attention to politics since the 90’s. I remember accusations of the clintons being in bed with the Chi-coms then. Perhaps the globalists are all on board for the new world order and they viewed Trump as an impediment. Four years of unsubstantiated propahandi didn’t do the trick (lets call it what it really was) and perhaps many of them are guilty of things they thought he might expose, wrecking the entire house of cards. Perhaps they are desperate enough to cause such suffering and agony, i wouldn’t put it past them.
I’ve lost one middle-aged person in my extended family to Covid but no elderly persons as far as I know.
One of my immediate family members developed Covid the first week in March, had mild symptoms, and seemed to recover quickly. However, he had a lack of energy and now has trouble climbing the stairs. He has excellent health insurance and went through hospital tests for his heart and lungs that turned out normal. That makes one think of Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, but I doubt he will be diagnosed with myalgic encephalomyelitis. He is middle-aged and has been a jogger with occasional marathons. After 9 months, can he expect a recovery? I suspect many similar people will eventually be diagnosed with “Post Covid Syndrome.”
A number of medical doctors and researchers are studying these disabilities, but there are no reliable data yet for the infection/disability rate. We probably won’t have that data for at least a couple of years. An infection/disability rate ten times the infection fatality rate would not be surprising. Some of those disabilities would be minor, and others would result in a lower life expectancy.
A significant percentage of the US population thinks that a Covid infection is not a serious concern. My question would be whether they think they are healthier than Chinese doctor Li Wenliang who died from Covid. I suspect that he received a large inoculum from one of his patients, and his immune system was unable to respond in time. That initial inoculum may be more important than age and most co-morbidities. There are children who have died of Covid. I read of a 113 year old woman in Spain who recovered from Covid, although she did receive hydroxychloroquine and zinc.
I find it hard to trust the varying health data because politics has interfered to such a large extent. So I calculate my own data. I take the Worldometer dead and increase it by 25% to give me currently about 330,000 dead in the US. Using a infection/fatality rate of 0.01%, the total number of people infected by Covid in the US would be about 33 million or 10% of the US population. So, we are far from herd immunity.
If there are no interventions, by the time we get to herd immunity, we might have about 2.5 million dead and, who knows, perhaps 25 million disabled persons. That would be worse than all our wars combined. But of course we definitely will have interventions. Reality has a way of imposing itself on politicians and others no matter how foolish.
I’m sorry your relative is experiencing post-viral syndrome following COVID infection. Millions of Americans have been experiencing this type of thing for decades. Where do you think “chronic Lyme” (not acknowledged by mainstream drs), CFS, Fibromyalgia,Lupus, et al, come from? A percentage of people will be disabled, post COVID infection, to varying degrees. As it was and ever shall be …
You mention: “A significant percentage of the US population thinks that a Covid infection is not a serious concern. My question would be whether they think they are healthier than Chinese doctor Li Wenliang who died from Covid.” Personally, I do not think I’m healthier. Not by a long shot. I’m almost 60, have had autoimmune (post viral?) issues for the past 3 years. I’m at risk. That doesn’t mean I want to stop living until such time as I die. I’ll take my chances. I get the feeling a lot of the US population feels the same way.
You also say: “I take the Worldometer dead and increase it by 25% to give me currently about 330,000 dead in the US.” I think you’re calculating in reverse of what is likely true. Did you read Raul’s article before you commented?
In closing … I humbly, oh so humbly, acknowledge that Dr D and other commenters here at TAE were right all along. Flatten the curve turned into no one can die. We have sold our souls to the parasitic class to save our physical bodies. It is well past time for humanity to set this particular hysteria aside.
@ upstateNYer
Thanks for your comments.
I have a number of auto immune conditions among my relatives, and the names of these conditions always seem to be new to me. (primary biliary cholangitis?) Are these due to viruses, retroviruses, diet, genetics, something else? A family member developed something like CFS leaving her gasping for breath for a couple of decades before her death. This was caused by a doubling of her hypertension medication, and her pulmonary doctor told us from the start that this was irreversible. So I’m quite familiar that life is full of risks.When I outline how I calculate risks, I’m not saying anyone should follow my reasoning. Everyone needs to do their own calculation based on their knowledge and personal situation. Chris Martenson said a couple months ago that he thought we were near heard immunity. I believe that Raul stated that he thought the number of infected persons might be eight times the number on Worldometer. I think it’s more like three times the Worldometer number. None of us knows for sure. The data is incomplete, uncertain, and sometimes deliberately fraudulent.
Taleb says that we are dealing with fat-tailed distributions leaving us with uncertainty and unknowable risks. I have responsibilities to family, friends, and animals. I have responsibilities to their lives, health, and finances. Those responsibilities help determine how I respond to risk. The responsibilities for you, Raul, or Dr D might be vastly different. So act accordingly.
I read about people interned in Japanese concentration camps during World War Two. Those people who took many careless risks didn’t survive. Those who took no risks at all didn’t survive. The people who took very calculated risks were those who survived. That’s exactly the way life is Darwinian.
“Flatten the Curve” was intended to be a short term attempt to avoid overtaxing the healthcare system while we determined how to deal with the virus. China, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, New Zealand, and Australia decided to crush the curve out of existence. And they can do it in about 30 days. Sweden decided to let the virus run wild. The US strategy is to “muddle through.” We have no choice. Our nations governors and mayors have demonstrated conclusively that they have no leadership ability whatsoever. The state health departments are clueless. The Federal Government is AWOL.
Some new efforts will obviously be forthcoming in the US. I find it hard to be optimistic about that.
This is very difficult to write.
It is clear that the Western ruling elite’s response to the coronavirus pandemic is if it makes money, go for it. If it doesn’t (even if it is in the public good), forget it.
Since South Korea controlled its coronavirus outbreak, it’s been crystal clear that religious ceremonies; packed together, singing, praying, and no protective equipment are super spreader events when an infected virus shedding person attends. This is likely in the USA with the virus running wild. They are extremely hard to control by public health personnel since most of the virus spreaders are asymptomatic (temperature screening is pointless) and the participants generally are anti-state (Christians in a Confucian nation or Hasidic Jews in Brooklyn NY) and they return out into the population afterwards.
The US Supreme Court has just decided that it is legal to infect, hospitalize and kill other Americans while practicing one’s religion in public.
You’re doubling down on the garbage claim that only 172 Canadians have died of covid outside of long term care homes in Canada? Despite a comment from me and at least one other comment providing links disproving the claim?
I’m not sure what you’re trying to achieve.
I saw a preprint version of this study earlier this year, and in September it was published in the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Research.
It’s the study which looks at statistics from various locations and calculates the number of miles you’d have to travel per day in a motor vehicle to make the risk of dying from a crash the same as the risk of dying from Covid-19.
Here are some examples of the resulting “risk of COVID-19 death for <65 year old people as miles travelled per day equivalent”:
Canada – 14 miles per day
Italy – 37 miles per day
Netherlands – 32 miles per day
Spain – 65 miles per day
India – 4 miles per dayThis puts the risks into better perspective. The conclusions of the study get straight to the point:
Conclusions
People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.
Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7327471/This ‘only 172 deaths outside of ltc in Canada’ is total garbage.
As I said previously
As of Nov. 26 Ontario alone had a total of 3,595 deaths of which 2,283 were in long term care so that leaves 1,312 non long term care deaths just in this province.
Surprised you put that number up again.
And while I’m at it it’s funny that after a big rise in the number of bogus positive pcr test results you get a big rise in the number of people going to hospital with this fake disease and then some of those end up in icu and then some of them die
It’s just a crazy world I guess!
About that Canada pic: I didn’t read the comments on yesterday’s Debt Rattle until after posting this article. I also said: “If only 1.5% of COVID deaths happen outside of long term care homes..” I had no way of knowing if it is true, CTV seemed a credible enough source. I can’t fact-check everything I use. That two-thirds of all deaths are in care homes is a bad enough number.
But it’s also not the main point I tried to make, which is that such numbers should be all over the place by now, for all countries and states. We should know where cases and deaths take place, because policies and measures are based on those numbers. The information should by now be much more detailed, so we don’t bring sledgehammers to hammer in tiny nails.
We like sharing resources that benefit us. That is the foundation of market economics: try and make the good better and more available. We make laws to promote this. Some of these laws are good. Some are awful.
We don’t like sharing things that hurts us. That is the basis of politics: try to make the bad less bad and less available. We make laws to prevent this. Some of these laws are good. Some are awful.
El covid brings these two principles into frank conflict.
It’s an ancient dilemma:
“Gotta do what you can just to keep your love alive
Try not to confuse it with what you do to survive” — Jackson Browne
Those of you who still want to cry “why do you want to kill me?” to everyone who does not mask up and hide away I say that the death rate matches the natural death rate exactly. Meaning that it is people who usually die who are dying. Yes this means babies, children, teens, young people, everyone could possibily die from covid-19 but not at a rate different than the demographics of normal death demographics. The chances of dying from covid-19 as a baby in infinitesimal and as you go up the age scale your chances increase proportionally same as it ever was. Maybe more ultimate deaths but not out of context to the normal curve. We shall see if the total deaths are higher but we won’t know for a while. Some deaths were less such as auto accidents, pollution inhalation, stress was down for a while when people had money and were all gardening and cooking.
SPanish flu killed the young and healthy but this flu is the opposite of that. That and the only meds they pushed was aspirin at about 5 times the lethal rate which killed millions.
“If only 1.5% of COVID deaths happen outside of long term care homes, the “science” doesn’t say close your schools and stores and make everyone wear a mask 24 hours a day, the science says pump massive amounts of resources into those care homes in order to stop the misery there.”
Classic case of failure of understanding the science. If it was as simple as protecting only people in care homes, surely the vast majority of governments would be doing exactly that. It isn’t as if there aren’t any countries that tried that, like Sweden.
The problem is, as soon as the numbers in the community go up enough, it ends up in care homes. In every place that the strategy has been tried. Because people without symptoms can spread it, there is no easy way to stop that, unless the number of cases in the community is low enough. Effectively, to stop deaths in care homes, the only practical way is to stop spread in the community. It’s that simple. Once the numbers in the community reach a certain threshold, it’s proven impossible to protect care homes, in every place where that strategy was tried.
There is another issue that this article conveniently ignores, and that is overwhelming hospitals. Talking about deaths ignores that covid patients take some time to die, and during all this time they are hospitalised. And while they are being attended to, nurses and doctors have a lot less spare time to attend other patients. In other words, high cases of covid in the community endangers the lives of everyone in the community, those infected and those that aren’t, because hospital care degrades during the time of a spike, inevitably.
For all those reasons, letting covid spread is generally a terrible idea. There is no country that let covid spread, either deliberately or by accident, that didn’t end up with hospitals that were at least partially overwhelmed and care homes affected. There is no single example of success at that strategy, and if you are thinking that Sweden is “success”, look at their numbers again and convince yourself that they did exactly as badly as every other country that allowed the spread by accident or design (UK, USA, etc.)
Of course, it’s possible to combine the problems of letting covid spread with the problems of lockdowns. In actual fact, it’s more common to combine the two. Because countries that have done good lockdowns (that is, early and strong) had to do their lockdowns for shorter periods and suffered less problems with the lockdowns as a consequence. Difficult lockdowns and allowing covid to spread are two sides of the same coin.
It’s like credit cards: the best way of avoiding getting sucked into paying lots of credit card debt is to pay it early, and to pay as much as you can in one go. If instead, you want to be bled dry by a credit card, insist on paying the minimum amount every time. Covid spreads exponentially, so it operates exactly the same as interest rates. If you want maximum suffering, then ignore the facts of compounding. Pay the minimum amount in lockdowns every time, and find yourself quagmired in lockdowns forever.
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