February 4, 2020 at 12:07 am #53437
The number are 10,000 out of 13,000,000
I encounter some of those 13,000,000
I survived the encounter 🙂February 4, 2020 at 12:13 am #53438February 4, 2020 at 12:29 am #53439
“The number are 10,000 out of 13,000,000”
I was going by the rough population of the USA. Must’ve picked the wrong country.
Out of 13 million it’s 1300 who dies of the flu per that stat..
“I survived the encounter ”
It’s nice to be lucky.
I’ve had a case of the flu. Whole family did. Wicked shyte, oy vey. We survived.
Some influenzas are worse than others. Some people are stronger than others. Some years find us stronger and more resistant than others. The very nature of such statistics is a description of one’s chances at being more lucky or more unlucky.
With the coronavirus, the long latency period is the kicker. A vector can infect dozxens of people before real;izing they’re sick. That increases the number of people who toss their dice against the 2% rate.
The reason I take this so seriously is because our economy in the States is based on people interacting with people, typically in closed buildings moving the air rapidly. This time of year up north, the air usually very dry inside such places, even in soggy old Portland.
The only way to keep the size of that 2% from reaching painfully large proportions (like a proportion that touches you or a loved one) is to clamp down on contact. It’s an economic shutdown, that process. In a nation where people can’t afford to miss a week much less a month of work. In an economy based on ‘just enough/just in time’ inventory dependent on massive importation, particularly from Pacific Rim nations. In a society raised on immunization and junk food. Not exactly the most robust immune system profile belongs to the USA population, I should think, or Euromerica in general.
There’s only one way the USA government can deal effectively with such circumstances, and that is something resembling martial law. That thing we tend to speak of as if it is unique to China for some reason although our history is rife with same.February 4, 2020 at 12:31 am #53440
Something tells me this guy won’t be among any coronaviral 2%:February 4, 2020 at 12:43 am #53441
He must be the lone survivor of the coronavirus, dancing with joy.February 4, 2020 at 12:51 am #53442
Checking back, I see you were referencing the USA with that 10K mortality rate (which has to be an avberage of flus over many years, I would think).
If the 13k figure you cite is the number of reported cases, than your logic is off. That’s for influenzas in a nation with annual vaccine programs so popular they’re now demonized fore not being perfect. If all 300 million USA folks contracted the average flu, that would mean that roughly 240,000 people would die.
That’s with a 0.1% fatality rate. With a 2% mortality rate like the coronavirus, the death rate if every person contracted the coronavirus would be 240K times 10 times 2. About 5 million people. Now, that mortality rate is currently based mostly on people who receive intensive hospital care. We know we have only a small fraction of the hospital resources needed to provide all serious infections. We have only a small fraction of resources needed to assess how serious an infection might be. We have only a small fracrtion of resources to even determine who has it even if they’re coughing and feeling lousy.
And that’s just those who die (under maximum infection rates, which won’t happen, so this is worst case scenario). Let’s cut the infection rate down to 1 out of five. Just 60 million people infected, and 1 million dead. But 60 million people suffering the flu in a few month’s time is an economy killer.
This thing looks pretty big. During an insane political season. With lunatics in the Pentagon prevented from kicking off something uncomfortably close to WWIII prevented from doing so by a lunatic-in-charge. With wacko weather regardless of whether its “noram” or not: it’s currently wacko. With the USA dollar held up by FED prayers and digital data representing imaginary wealth everyone needs to believe in else they’ll learn that the emperor and themselves are naked.
I’d say that this is the year that the USA lost whatever it still retains of its global colossus crown and learns to live within its means, primarily by seeing up close how much dying can happen when you blow that much smoke up your ass for this long.February 4, 2020 at 12:54 am #53443
“With wacko weather regardless of whether its “noram” or not:”
Uh, normal. I’ll be glad when I’m no longer Mr. Mucus Head. Fucks with my typing andthe patience needed for proper proofreading.February 4, 2020 at 12:58 am #53444
This study https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2374803/ seems to suggest that pretty near everything we are told about influenza and pandemics is made-up bullshit.February 4, 2020 at 1:05 am #53445
February 2, 2020 by Michael Snyder
Meanwhile, three other plagues have also been marching across Asia, and most people in the western world don’t even realize that this is happening. What I am about to share with you in this article is quite chilling, and the months ahead will be very dark if these plagues continue to spread.
Coronavirus,,,, African Swine Fever,… H5N1 Bird Flu… And H1N1 Swine Flu
It has been estimated that one out of every four pigs in the entire world has already died, and this crisis is far from over.
According to the Reuters report, Chinese authorities have already culled 17,828 poultry in the wake of the outbreak.
Unlike African Swine Fever, humans can become infected by the H5N1 bird flu.
And according to the World Health Organization, the mortality rate for human cases is approximately 60 percent.
So let us hope that this current outbreak remains limited to chickens.February 4, 2020 at 1:08 am #53446
“He must be the lone survivor of the coronavirus, dancing with joy.”
Looking for a girl. Raiswe some kids, start a new religion. Like he should oughta:February 4, 2020 at 1:24 am #53447
“It has been estimated that one out of every four pigs in the entire world has already died, and this crisis is far from over.”
It sucks to be a non-hominid fleshy animal these days. We argue whether the holocaust happened while we run a gazzillion sentient beings through terrifying food factories before running them through terrifying death factories. Like I often say, how conveninet it was during the Final Solution to have all those cattle cars available for transporting humans to death factories.
As we treat the least among us, so we treat each other.
I don’t fear death. I fear losing my soul before I die in this soulless world.February 4, 2020 at 1:53 am #53448
re: The Economic Collapse blog. *sigh* Rapturology gives me hives. God is someone to pray to in faith, not use as a sock puppet from your scripture of choice.
You know, crap like this:
“It will never be acceptable for any U.S. president to try to divide up the land of Israel. That land was given to the people of Israel by the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob, and any politician that attempts to carve up the land will only find himself fighting against God.”
It’s kind of hard to hear the still small voice with all these people bellowing about What God Wants/Plans etc.
No wonder so many people feel like this guy. I can hardly blame them:February 4, 2020 at 2:05 am #53449
“…seems to suggest that pretty near everything we are told about influenza and pandemics is made-up bullshit.”
I’d emphasize “seems to”. There’s ample ambiguity in something as new as modern epidemic statistics methodology. Calling it made up bullshit is more than a bit harsh. I’d consider the article (which I skim read on certain hot-button terms like vaccines) itself an ambiguous extrapolation that one should take with several grains of salt, as one should all such statistical analysis involving open systems like populations, microbe populations, vaccines, transportation, housing, genetic predispositions, hospital access, etc., etc., etc.
It’s a new science, and new sciences are rife with errors, but also rife with previoopusly unavailable data, axioms, concepts, and conclusions.February 4, 2020 at 2:06 am #53450
This study https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2374803/ seems to suggest that pretty near everything we are told about influenza and pandemics is made-up bullshit.
Yeah, how about that? Che’ surprise…
But it sure gets people posting non-sense a-go-go…blech…February 4, 2020 at 3:10 am #53451
I’ve read every comment yesterday and today to catch up. I hope your mucous gets thinner, Bosco. Dr D, it seems like a really excellent biofinancial warfare attack, with the special case that Chinese and Canadian labs had the same virus, with minimal time lapse, so almost identical, so it really could have been either. Canadian=American when it comes to this kind of thing. I posted my theory of how the Wuhan virus could have been sprung on Wuhan using local folks, which is a much better attack, if you can pull it off, on TAE first, but it’s here on yesterday’s blog entry. http://www.johndayblog.com/2020/02/first-bad-news.html
Global militaries have been hep to this modified coronavirus thing for awhile. SARS got attention, and funding.
Dave Note, you’ve been reading much of the stuff I have been reading.
Flu-not-so-bad meme seems about right, thanks for link.
We do have health systems in America, our own immune systems. Get fresh vegetables, sunshine, rest, daily activity, love, don’t smoke and don’t be afraid to die.
Measles sucks really bad. It and smallpox cleared the Americas for good European Christians and their trying to catch up white slaves, followed by black slaves.
I had measles, and it was the most incessantly miserable i have been in my life, which has included lots of injuries, appendicitis and malaria. My grandmother survived the 1918 flu, and some other bad stuff, earlier, when she was a missionary kid in China. She lived to be 96, and suffered the last 3 years. Tough woman. She died of cancer at home on New Year’s Day 2000, by force of will. Born and died in dragon year.
I’m not personally afraid of dying, so if this Wuhan virus gets here, I’m going to volunteer for front line stuff, like home visits, whatever is happening in Austin. I’d rather get it earlier, take a few weeks off, and come back to work invulnerable, and keep at it, in whatever the highest acuity setting is by then.
Watch this Gilead drug, Remdesivir, They are using it in a big clinical trial in Wuhan now. Gilead is a good company. They dominate the hepatitis-C drug market. They have good antiviral researchers, and good manufacturing. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-03/gilead-drug-to-undergo-human-trials-in-china-to-cure-coronavirusFebruary 4, 2020 at 5:30 am #53452
Dave Note:. I have seen a comment from a doctor saying 25% of coronavirus patients need serious treatment to survive! So your 20% sounds accurate! This what they are really hiding!
Obviously without serious treatment the death toll could be as high as 25%!
Western governments are not saying so but their actions to quarantine for 2 weeks says a lot!February 4, 2020 at 9:10 am #53462
This is the FB meme on coronavirus I mentioned earlier.February 4, 2020 at 9:30 am #53467
In the late 50s, I fought this thing over and over to the point the doctors gave me a tonsillectomy at 2 & 1/2 years old. (Probably cuz how the lymph nodes act up?) For whatever reason, the recurrent relapses stopped. (My earliest childhood memory is being in that hospital, and the memories are fun: escaping from giant metal ribbed cribs to run rampant with my buddy in the sickward until I’d run smack into a pair of white-stockinged nurse’s knees and get put back in the crib. Probably it was the adventurous fun that healed me of recurrent rubella?)
By the late 60s, vaccination programs in the USA against rubella virus coincided with a massive decline in rubella infections in the USA. Just one of many cultural props sustaining our over-burgeoning population. I find it amusing how people blame vaccines for autism rather than the enormous increase and intensification of information and stimuli overloading certain kinds of minds.
Being “on the spectrum” 300 years ago wasn’t such a big deal, I suspect. Your brain wasn’t constantly bombarded by deliberately invasive information like ads, squealing L-train wheels, cars roaring by whenever you leave your house, going to school with a buncha squally brats your age while a teacher forces you to focus on boring shit… seems like Isaac Newton, for example, was fairly Aspergersoid, but he wasn’t raised in frony of a TV and then shoved into public school.
If this coronavirus is the result of intentionally releasing a weaponized microbe, this indicates staggering stupidity on the part of those giving the orders. It’s like deciding to use a boomerang to deliver a nuclear warhead.February 4, 2020 at 9:47 am #53468
Something in our favor is our obsession with cars and privacy. While cars are a disaster and our privacy is de facto social alienation that is dissolving societal bonds, they do reduce intimate vector crossings compared to public transportation. One reason the Spanish flu was so bad was people living in crowded tenements, gobs of guys crammed into Army barracks, the dominant prevalence of public transport, etc.
However, we offset this somewhat by increasingly having plain old MD offices in the same giant megaplex building housing local hospitals. Portland’s OHSU is monstrous and incompetent, and also naturally packs sick people together in shared breathing spaces, including elevators. See below:
And we like to drive our cars to buildings where low-paid workers, who often live in more crowded quarters than not, make food and hand it to us out of windows. Unless we’ve got some spare jingle and go to The Olive Garden, which kind of establishment is a natural vectoral node for anything spread by contact or airborne transmission.
These modern tendencies also make it harder to track down and isolate contagions outbreak locations: everyone/everything’s a moving target that periodically gathers in groups in small quarters where microbes run rampant.February 4, 2020 at 9:51 am #53470
Not to mention the risk of going blind in the all-seeing eye surrounded by the hair in your palm:
“Risky masturbation kills 80 to 100 Germans a year, claims a Brandenburg physician who is shining a light on the unpredictable and often clandestine killer. Dr. Harald Voss estimates that one to two people per one million inhabitants are killed by risky masturbation techniques annually, all of them in search of an elevated experience that the vast majority already deem quite satisfactory.
“Asphyxiation is cited as the most common form of masturbation death, says Voss, along with electric shock, however it’s difficult to get a truly accurate reading of just how many people have lost their lives this way… for a number of reasons.”
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