Five Stonking Crashes

 

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  • #8376

    Photo top: Dorothea Lange Broke, Baby Sick February 1937 "Tracy (vicinity), California. U.S. Highway 99. Missouri family of five, seven months fr
    [See the full post at: Five Stonking Crashes]

    #7738

    Golden Oxen
    Participant

    What a total complete mess. Amazing the whole thing doesn’t just go to zero today from the insanity of it all.

    And the stock markets roar to new heights daily, and the press screams recovery, even housing is supposed to be great again. We also have enough oil for hundred more years as well.

    Could we be in an insane asylum and not know it?

    #7739

    Go,

    The greater the desperation, the greater the illusion.

    #7740

    Ken Barrows
    Participant

    It will blow up when the marginal cost of extracting a barrel of oil exceeds what the marginal consumer can pay. If it’s quite a number of years away, then let the redistribution upward continue (/sarc). If it is not, hold onto your hats.

    #7741

    Gravity
    Participant

    On the american front, PRISM is revealed as the largest surveillance program in human history, intercepting and storing the contents of all [digital] telecommunications of billions of people worldwide for decades.

    Apologists of this diabolical NSA crime against humanity invariably exhibit signs of deep terror psychosis and engage in politically extremist speech utterly destructive of those ends of liberty.
    Public advocation of this integral destruction of privacy, inflicting grievous mental harm against all citizens, is an act of criminal collaboration with the federal regime.

    Besides being used for the usual purposes of wholesale market manipulation and political persecution/blackmail, the PRISM program is also another preparation for genocide on the american people. The shadow government is compiling convenient purge lists for systematic extermination of tens of millions of dissidents/resistors during the civil war/collapse.

    Political and personal privacy are requisite for cognitive liberty and moral volition, regardless extenuating circumstances of terror psychosis, those who advocate the destruction of privacy are a threat to democracy and personal liberty and mortal enemies of the republic.

    Under soviet relativity,
    light bends you!

    prismplanet.com

    #7742

    bluebird
    Participant

    Stonking!

    What a great new word I learned today. Five stonking crashes, soon to be six. 🙁

    #7743

    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    “The more desperate, the greater the illusion.”

    The more desperate, the more dangerous the desperado’s. We have been living the illusion since 1913.

    This all leads to final destruction of the currency now. Their chance to prevent that has passed.

    Out of that come wars and genocides. The only diversion power brokers know.

    On that note, I’ll stay close to the exits, thanks all the same.

    #7744

    pipefit
    Participant

    Correct, professor. They will lop two, or more likely three zeros off the dollar and call it the ‘new dollar’. This is how it always ends, and this time around will be no different.

    The problem is that the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. So dollar holders, like China, that are using trillions of dollars as the backstop for their otherwise bankrupt financial systems, have a small problem. If they dump the dollar too early, they precipitate its demise, and the demise of their own assets. If they wait too long, they get nothing.

    Once this thing turns down, it is going straight down, as dollar holders rush to buy ‘stuff’ at any price.

    #7745

    ted
    Participant

    So you are saying I should cash out my 401k? Hasn’t the FED programed people to think that what ever happens they have the power to fix it and they will be there to manipulate any and all markets if we have to. Not that any of it is true but as long as you convince people it is true there is no problem; mankind was able to convince people that it is ok to have slaves or kill as long as they are from a different tribe. The level of this game can go on for a long…long time

    #7746

    p01
    Participant

    The [strike]dollar holders[/strike] credit “worthy” have already [strike]bought[/strike] claimed all existing, future and imaginary stuff.
    There’s no money to buy all this stuff.

    #7747

    davefairtex
    Participant

    I think the dollar demise will await the failure of other, less systemically important nations. Failure moves from the periphery to the core – but only after the periphery has taken its beating first.

    The grand move in the US stock market is partially about international capital flows into the US (which have reversed recently), and partially about extremely low interest rates being very profitable for US companies. Along with low wages paid to US employees too, of course. They sell a lot of stuff overseas, pay low interest rates, pay low wages, and as a result make historically better-than-average profits. So naturally the stock market goes up.

    I’m watching the indicators; we aren’t quite yet there for a move down, but things are definitely looking worrisome. Projections of 10-year annual returns are currently predicted to be about 3.5%/year (based on two different methods – both of which have done well historically in predicting longer term market returns), including dividends of 2.2% that says SPX will likely be only 15% higher 10 years from now. Given the market’s annoying habit of dropping 30-40% during corrections, this would seem to be a bad bargain. Or more colloquially, picking up nickels in front of steamrollers.

    And I believe these projections to be optimistic, since the models have never experienced peak oil, etc.

    However, only one of my five indicators has turned down. Patience.

    #7748

    Golden Oxen – “…even housing is supposed to be great again.”

    Fake Housing Market Recovery Explained:

    “The average American Joe isn’t participating in the U.S. housing market. As a matter of fact, according to the Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey, investors purchased 69% of “damaged” properties in April 2013, while first-time home buyers accounted for only 16% of “damaged” purchases. […]

    Rising prices on homes in various pockets of the U.S. housing market are a direct result of large institutional investors buying in.”

    https://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=55943

    #7749

    Gravity
    Participant

    If you’re not concerned about PRISM, ignore this post and go lick the hand that gropes your privates.

    The markets are irrelevant for your profitability, all your financial transactions are monitored and intercepted for insider trading and manipulation, you cannot gain anything openly or anonymously that will not be stolen by the tyranny, you cannot hide your equity.
    Absense of financial and commercial privacy destroys all propensity to novelty.

    If no legal recourse would remain to reestablish a constitutional rule of law to protect citizens private lives, every citizen ought to be willing to die in political protest to ensure general privacy, and to a lesser extent, should be willing to kill the government [intelligence capacity] to ensure their own privacy, if that would help.

    Many of you do not realise what has happened to the ideals of liberty, how close we are to the largest instantaneous genocide in history. Most americans who are not willing to suffer tyranny or collaborate are certainly targeted for elimination during the collapse in the US.

    An inevitable dollar collapse causing at least half a billion starvation deaths worldwide by cascading logistical collapse is the only remaining reason the federal regime should not be overthrown immediately.
    Otherwise, if dollar collapse is guaranteed already, an immediate 2nd civil war against the federal regime is the only reasonable recourse to limit casualties domestically due to this dollar collapse, providing domestic casualties would be initially limited to 20-30 million when DC is overthrown, less than would otherwise be murdered by the tyranny.

    The PRISM program alone, by directly facilitating preparations for genocide, would move the founding fathers to revolutionary recourse, even if no other transgressions were committed by government tyranny, this alone would be enough to justify their plight.

    Join the resistance in their noble pre-violent struggle to kill DC or get out of the way to avoid collateral damage. A hypothetical ultimatum for legitimate self-defense is in order; if DC does not voluntarily dismantle its intelligence capacity by the 21st of june 2014, all DHS assets, FEMA camp sites, threat fusion centres and data aggregates will be hypothetically rendered legitimate military targets for sabotage and destruction. Throw the body patriot onto the machinery to stop the COG from turning.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Core

    https://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/main-core-a-list-of-millions-of-americans-that-will-be-subject-to-detention-during-a-national-crisis

    https://www.christopherketcham.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/The%20Last%20Roundup,%20Radar%20Magazine.pdf

    Don’t take this to be overly paranoid, but
    I have no [perception of] personal privacy and do not expect to regain it during my lifetime. I’ve personally been under constant surveillance since 2009 or so, not just digital, auditory but visual surveillance, facilitated by intelligence agencies in conjunction with private corporations, who I’ve come to hate passionately. If I thought it would stop the tyranny for others, I’d be willing to personally die or kill to stop this, in lieu of more legitimate self-defense or political protest.

    On at least one occasion, I’ve been harrassed by local freemasons who know who I am and what I write on this very blog, which is only possible by sustained criminal invasion of my privacy. Esoteric hierarchies are an integral part of this global surveillance tyranny, and I hold a minor world record for self-initiation which annoys some of them.
    I’ve come to understand that initiation is corruption. Initiation does not entail corruption, initiation is corruption. Lightwise, it should be purification, but its quite the opposite in political terms.

    Esoteric hierarchy is principally incompatible with democracy, all who swear secret oaths of fidelity cannot [be trusted to] uphold public oaths unconditionally and cannot be citizens in an open society, expect maybe in a stateless society. All institutional manifestations of the mysteries can be made politically corrupt and corruptive, and must be purged of political extremism if possible. The mysteries themselves, being a multidimensional recursive algorithm embedded in the nature of reality, cannot be destroyed, but their institutional structures can be persecuted into oblivion if need be, if revealed as intractably extremist. The only benefit of the doubt afforded to modern freemasonry as an organisational structure is their historical persecution by authorities, such as by the nazi syndicate, which has two possible reasons, one of which might render them more sympathetic in resistance to tyranny.

    I used to believe esoteric societies and occult hierarchies might be unique among institutions by deliberately avoiding the formation of clustered sociopathy and gross abuses of power, but I”m not so sure anymore. All institutional structures are more conductive to evil than to good unless constantly reinformed by a moral memory, but no institutional memory seems safe from corruptive pressures from the state and markets. Maybe a stateless society could produce ideological dynamics that don’t corrupt institutional morality.
    As there is no state-enforced separation of power possible within esoteric structures, precisely because of their protected privacy, it remains problematic that intelligence communities actively recruit from esoteric hierarchies, and esoteric hierarchies recruit from all branches of government, producing a democratically erosive convergence of interest between branches, and conflict of interest between public and private oaths without oversight or accountability.
    Charity is only possible as a private function, omnipresent oversight by moralising authorities renders true moral volition impossible.

    Would demonstrative self-immolation help to fight for privacy?
    At this point, I’m willing to set myself on fire in the town square if this would motivate people to care about privacy, but the point would likely be lost on them.

    Give me privacy or give me Gravity!

    #7750

    Here’s a great in-depth article re the so-called housing recovery: Time to Buy a House? Not on Your Life!

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2013/06/14/time-to-buy-a-house-not-on-your-life/

    Oh me, oh my!

    And “stonking” is a fantastic word. Stonk: A concentrated artillery bombardment.

    #7751

    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Yeah, pipefit, all one needs do is ask oneself, how many great nations have been destroyed by hyper deflation, as opposed to how many have been decimated by currency value obliteration 😉

    And, as China is investing those green paper products in gold and gold production, now being the worlds largest producer of the stuff, it just could become the new holder of a gold backed reserve currency, replacing the dollar, in future. Not to mention it’s acquisition of energy production facilities.

    And Ted, yes these “confidence” things can go on a long time, true…or turn on a dime. Seems to me this Coyote, after stepping off the cliff years ago, has been walking on air a long time already. What happens when he looks down?

    On housing, I’m on the sell side at present. We’ll see how it goes.

    #7753

    skipbreakfast
    Participant

    Ilargi writes, “there’s a whole camp around Paul Krugman that would disagree. What they don’t understand is that no amount of stimulus can lead to a real recovery if the initial debt levels are too high, because you would need to achieve absolutely miraculous growth levels just to avoid being overrun by interest payments.”

    And I just can’t help wondering how Krugman doesn’t understand this. Ain’t he smart or something? It seems rather obvious that the numbers don’t add up–interest will consume our “growth profits”. Krugman seems to argue that we just have to stimulate ENOUGH and we reach some kind of magic escape velocity that WILL create exactly enough miracle growth to repay the debt and the interest. Or rather we will attain enough miracle growth so that we can perpetually service the debt forever (because he really doesn’t seem to care that we have debt as long we can service the interest payments, even if that relationship extends forever). You just have to ask how on earth one believes such a state of affairs could be spun forever–won’t we eventually reach some other insurmountable obstacle in the road sometime later, crushing growth and forcing default all over again? So we’re supposed to just put that off until some indeterminate date later (maybe next week or next year) and hope for the best until then? I don’t see how such projections don’t lead to eventual default. And I ain’t stupid neither.

    Krugman wants us to drink enough poison until somehow it becomes a cure. Even while, thus far, increasing the poison levels seems to do no measurable good. We’re just supposed to have faith that if we just take more–a lot more, even–then we will be all better.

    It’s truly absurd.

    How can the man be so deluded? Has he no doubts at all? Are his frantic tweets–he apparently comments on everything these days–the signs of a desperate academic whose ivory tower is showing some cracks?

    #7754

    Mark T
    Member

    How Do You Say “Housing Bubble” In Canadian?

    #7755

    Mark T
    Member

    Canadian readers of the blog may be interested in the following article:

    How Do You Say “Housing Bubble” In Canadian?

    #7756

    Nassim
    Participant
    #7757

    rapier
    Participant

    The ‘liberal’ school of denial is matched by the ‘conservative’ school. I am speaking in US political terms.

    For our purposes conservative means the populist or pseudo populist Tea Party conservatives. The conservative school is only partly economic however so it gets very muddled.

    At heart conservatives want a proper, conservative, social order where people know their place. It is more than seeping into conservative minds, its how a healthy flow, that austerity means a large and growing underclass. What is only seeping in is the knowledge that a large and growing underclass precludes growth. They are getting OK with that however because they think a large underclass living in fear of losing everything will be more conservative. Will keep their heads down, know their place.

    That is why there is no direct conservative argument with Krugman. Krugman has a plan for growth. We all agree here it won’t work but that’s his story.

    You never hear a conservative argument for growth that addresses policy, besides cutting taxes of course, which is a non sequitur. Obviously 35 years of tax cutting has not caused growth but no matter. That’s their story and they are sticking to it. Their advantage is that there is no alternative to austerity. So they are, if only by coincidence, more in tune with reality, on this score.

    Their problem is non growth is a political loser. Well that’s the problem for both sides. In my history of recent US politics there was a brief moment in the late 80’s where Carter gently suggested limits. The American people crushed any talk of limits. Saudi Arabia pumped a hundred years worth of oil in 20 years in the denial of limits and everyone else embraced debt as the substitute for cheap oil.

    #7758

    pipefit
    Participant

    Skip–My guess is that Krugman knows all that. Again, just guessing, but his agenda is probably to get liberal democrats elected to various state and federal offices. When viewed in this context, I think his comments are consistent with his agenda.

    There’s no way out. Anyone with 5th grade math skills could tell you that. Come on. Debt plus the present worth of unfunded liabilities greater than 10 times GDP. But who wants to vote for a situation worse than Greece or Spain?

    Much better to draw paychecks and receive invitations to fancy White House parties, right, lol?

    #7759

    Golden Oxen
    Participant

    Skip–My guess is that Krugman knows all that.

    Pipefit ,Respectfully disagree with you. The gent is an imbecile in my view, plain and simple, just as he appears, nothing mysterious.

    #7760

    Great AP report:

    Forget Prism : NSA Tapped Straight into Internet Pipeline

    Interviews with more than a dozen current and former government and technology officials and outside experts show that, while Prism has attracted the recent attention, the program actually is a relatively small part of a much more expansive and intrusive eavesdropping effort.

    #7761

    pipefit
    Participant

    golden–It doesn’t really matter whether Krugman is an imbecile or a thinly disguised spokesman for the Democratic Party. The bottom line is that we’re gonna have one those ‘stonking’ type crashes soon.

    Ironically, it also doesn’t matter much if it is deflationary or hyper inflationary in nature. The scale of the destruction will be so vast, and rapid, that it will quickly annihilate the financial sector. This would actually be a good thing, if we actually had a manufacturing sector as the bulk of our economy. Unfortunately, we’re mainly a FIRE and Government type economy, so I would suggest that one plans accordingly.

    #7762

    Gravity
    Participant

    Internet monitoring is somehow seen as less intrusive, even having your private emails read [algorithmically] is tolerated by too many people. The software terms and conditions no one ever bothers to read do often trick into relinquishing protected privacy over digital communications, mostly for commercial purposes. As most human behaviour and social interactions are now commercialised, and the private commercial data is trafficked back and forth between agencies and corporate, being spied on for commercial purposes by corporations is no less invasive and destructive than being spied on directly for purposes of political persecution. It all ends up being used against you.

    https://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-57589495-38/nsa-admits-listening-to-u.s-phone-calls-without-warrants/

    Warrantless wiretapping of telephones, being obviously criminal, is a step too far for most. Its not just that your phone calls are recorded and indefinitely stored for automated voice analysis, keyword searches and political blackmail, but intelligence agencies can use all phones as microphones to listen live to the conversations in your home. I should know, I’ve received confirmed feedback [targeted ads and such] from private conversations I’ve had in peoples homes which cannot be overheard or monitored except by cellphones which aren’t even in use. You wouldn’t have believed me before PRISM broke, but I assure you, this is happening.

    https://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/03/petraeus-tv-remote/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2115871/The-CIA-wants-spy-TV-Agency-director-says-net-connected-gadgets-transform-surveillance.html

    The CIA’s professional psychotics now say they’ll install microphones in all household appliances to terrorise you good and proper. Even the new Xbox is an integrated NSA enabled spying platform, will monitor [by mandatory motion sensors] how many people are in your living room to allocate licencing fees, and listen to conversations to target commercial advertisements or a droning of your dissident family.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2013/06/07/nsa-domestic-spying-program-makes-xbox-one-even-scarier/

    #7763

    Mark T
    Member

    Thanks Nassim

    #7764

    william
    Participant

    I tried a few years ago to project what would happen if countries all knew that they and everyone else were, for want of a better word, screwed.

    Lets say you knew that the system was going to fail and have a really hard reset. If you followed demographics and depletion of resources you might be thinking this way. News flash back in 1990 the economics prop stopped the lecture to have a class debate about a projected problem for 2015. Turns out the government has been watching this and understood the problem prior to 1980. I have spoken to Senators about it and there is no solution,

    Back to what I was saying what if you knew that everyone was in the same boat. Colin Campbell stated the international banking community fully understood this and was playing hot potato. No one has a hope of being untouched, everyone is connected, so you attempt to be in better shape than competing interests.

    Imagine if countries are taking the same approach. If we all knew the money would be worthless in the end spending crazy amounts now won’t hurt. They are playing hot potato. Since the US will not be the world currency of trade everyone is trying to keep up to their debt level as it will be the new norm. Once everything settles and you did not take out crazy amounts of debt your country will be at a loss when the whole thing restructures and the debts are erased.

    Sound crazy? I believe this logic guides not only banking but democratic governments around the world.

    Just like to point out something flawed. Should interest rates go up there is no sound theory for deflation. Higher interest rates by definition mean inflation.

    #7765

    Just like to point out something flawed. Should interest rates go up there is no sound theory for deflation. Higher interest rates by definition mean inflation.

    No. As interest rates rise, an increasing part of available capital will be needed to serve interest payments, and that will very much drive deflation (defined as money and credit supply x velocity of money).

    Once everything settles and you did not take out crazy amounts of debt your country will be at a loss when the whole thing restructures and the debts are erased.

    There is no UN for erasing everyone’s debt. Japan can hardly take any increase at all in bond yields. Before “everything settles” there will be victims. And they may not be the expected suspects. The entire game is based on an illusion of control that doesn’t actually exist. Because they’re so focused on this illusion, a lot of parties won’t see what’s coming.

    #7766

    Golden Oxen
    Participant

    There is no UN for erasing everyone’s debt. Japan can hardly take any increase at all in bond yields. Before “everything settles” there will be victims. And they may not be the expected suspects. The entire game is based on an illusion of control that doesn’t actually exist. Because they’re so focused on this illusion, a lot of parties won’t see what’s coming.

    The amount and caliber of people who should know better, and currently base all their judgements and actions on what they perceive to be the next move or interpretation of their leaders next and last round of babble is very alarming Sir.

    We are currently having a debate amongst the financial titans and gurus of Fantasy Land on what the word TAPERING means. How disgusting and frightening at the same time.

    #7767

    p01
    Participant

    william post=7493 wrote: Higher interest rates by definition mean inflation.

    TAE Summary, quit posting incognito!

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