Kiev’s Long Term Plans To Blow Up The Kakhovka Dam

 

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  • #136342

    Thomas Cole The Course of Empire – The Savage State 1834     I had some discussion with Andrew about this article, since the December 2022 W
    [See the full post at: Kiev’s Long Term Plans To Blow Up The Kakhovka Dam]

    #136354
    jb-hb
    Participant

    Ukraine cut off the canal to Crimea when they controlled it.

    Russia restored water supply when they took control.

    Russia, being in control of the dam, could simply open all the floodgates.

    The canal depends on the dam

    Because #oppositeworld, the party that wants the dam to provide a water supply to Crimea blew it up to cut it off. And the party that wanted the water supply to Crimea cut off – and DID so in the past so long as they had the power to do so – is presumed not to have been responsible.

    Makes sense.

    That’s just how Russians work. They have the off switch on their own pipeline, so they blow it up to cut it off instead of flipping their own switch. They are in possession of a nuclear power plant and can therefore plant explosives directly on/in it with precision OR meddle with safety mechanisms directly to cause it to melt down, but instead, they shell it with artillery to achieve this. Silly dastardly cunning stupid Russians!

    Maybe the Ukrainians need a sufficient reserve to be able to launch a counteroffensive and are a bit low, therefore flooded the lower Dnieper to free up some of the forces sitting behind it?

    Few understand that the Maginot Line WORKED. It allowed a large area of front to be manned effectively by less men, freeing up French forces for mobile operations. ie the static defense system’s main utility was to facilitate mobile operations.

    The Germans didn’t “go round” it until they’d already won the battle of France and were mopping up. French forces went around the Maginot, then got cut off and defeated in Flanders.

    So I could see that – flooding an area so more forces can be redeployed elsewhere. Can’t launch an offensive without sufficient reserves, gotta get them from somewhere.

    Alternatively, if Russia wanted to mount an offensive, the lower Dnieper area doesn’t appear to be particularly favorable. I was just going over Von Mellenthin’s Panzer Battles, Guderian’s Panzer Leader, and Manestein’s Lost Victories, looking at the late 1943 crossing of the Dnieper (by the Soviets)

    They didn’t seem to have any desire to advance westward close to the Black Sea, but advanced well north of there. So if Russia wanted to forestall any Ukrainian attack over the lower Dneiper to concentrate more forces in the north, that would make some sense as well.

    IF blowing the dam was done to free up reserves for an offensive, it would involve pre-planning. Whoever was responsible would be first to launch a counteroffensive. That area won’t stay flooded forever.

    Unless someone inside the Ukrainian forces wanted to forestall a bloodbath by preventing a planned attack across the lower Dnieper – “See, boss? we can’t attack now.”

    I’m just a guy with a bunch of history books, what do I know. But from my amateur perspective, if I were the Russians, I’d be happiest sitting behind my defensive positions. Let the Ukrainians cross the river into my minefields and firing solutions, further into my AA umbrella. Let them throw their best troops into a fight with their backs to a major river. In fact, IF I were going to break the dam and flood that area, AFTER a Ukrainian crossing would be the perfect time to do it.

    I guess the Ukrainians could be thinking first break the dam, let things flood, let the flood subside, and then cross having neutralized that threat?

    I’ve seen various pro-Ukraine bloggers predicting big-arrow movements across the Dnieper followed by taking Crimea, but basically they CANNOT win while that dam is there, because if they start to win, the dam can always be blown and then they lose absolutely everything they threw across the river.

    Which brings me back to thinking, Ukraine would be best served by blowing the dam and flooding the lower Dnieper area for a northerly offensive, considering they cannot actually attack in that southern area. Not sanely anyway.

    #136355
    jb-hb
    Participant

    Here’s a most interesting question:

    Look at a map. Most of the Dnieper is controlled by Ukraine.

    What’s happening to dams and locks upstream of the damaged dam?

    Are the floodgates being OPENED or CLOSED?

    Is Ukraine attempting to limit a humanitarian disaster by CLOSING all the locks and floodgates upstream? Or are they OPENING them wide?

    Furthermore, what was the positioning of those locks and floodgates for the past few weeks? For instance, totally closed, then opened wide? Normal the whole time? Some other thing?

    I looked around a bit, couldn’t find anything one way or the other.

    #136360
    chooch
    Participant

    Seems we are flooded with information, the sources of are many. One source, Prigozhin has been strangely vocal this past month about the Russian MoD.

    There is a telegram channel, Prigozhin_hat (400k+ followers) , that recently uploaded this long interview with Victoria Tolkacheva (Not sure who she is yet)

    https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3613

    Not many translations or commentary available as of yet.

    https://twitter.com/GalileoArms/status/1665976573344849921

    Victoria Tolkacheva’s full interview with Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s leader at his training base.

    – About the capture of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of the previously abandoned positions in the Bakhmut area: the enemy has an understandable standard tactic: they feel the defense, fit in and increase their efforts.

    – Mobilization is needed, long-term training of the fighters is needed, and what is happening now is chaos.

    – About Belgorod: to stop what is happening, a public trial of all those involved under the law is needed.

    – Prigozhin wrote a statement to the prosecutor’s office that it was necessary to initiate a process, to carry out an investigation into the murder of Russian citizens, on the fact of the genocide of the Russian population, on the fact of transferring the territories of the Russian Federation to the enemy

    – The Belgorod region asks PMC “Wagner” to come. First we must go out, and then we will not be able to go there, since we will be blocked and we will not be allowed. If Wagner gets there, nothing can be hidden, and now they just deceive and say that everything is more or less in order there. They wanted to block and destroy us in Bakhmut, that’s why there were explosives on the way. Of course, they are afraid, because it is very close to the region of Belgorod to Rublyovka, and suddenly we will go to ask where our ammunition is.

    – Who gave the order to undermine the back roads is a separate issue. The lieutenant colonel extracted the wrong units, not the territories that could stop the enemy. They mined along the PMC withdrawal routes. The FSB and other agencies are carrying out a deep control over this lieutenant colonel.

    – About the fact that public methods to solve relationships and reveal problems delight the enemy and do not bring anything good to our side: for almost a year they remained silent and went like sheep to the slaughterhouse, but society should know when the problem is total. It is necessary to express and not correct mistakes. The first thing to do is to restore the army’s respect for itself. Next, the military leaders that they are, must be in the trenches with the soldiers.

    #136367
    jb-hb
    Participant

    Can’t speak to truth or accuracy of claims, but Russia is claiming that upstream dams under Ukrainian control have been opened:

    Ukraine Destroyed Kakhovka Station to Transfer Units to Offensive Area – Russian Defense Minister Shoigu

    “The Ukrainian forces destroyed the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant to transfer some military units from the Kherson direction to their offensive area, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday.

    Shoigu also said that last night “the Kiev regime committed another terrorist attack” when it destroyed the station’s facilities, adding that this action led to “flooding of large areas.”

    “The purpose of these actions, according to available data, is as follows. After failing in offensive operations, in order to strengthen its potential, the enemy intends to transfer units and equipment from the Kherson direction to the area of their offensive operations, thus significantly weakening its positions in the Kherson direction,” Shoigu said, adding that Kiev also targeted the station to prevent Russia’s military offensive.

    According to the minister, Ukraine has started to build up defensive positions on right bank of the Dnepr river, “which indicates their intention to go on the defensive here.”

    Increased Water Discharge From Middle Dnepr HPP Indicates That Kiev Planned Sabotage – Shoigu

    “The Ukrainian authorities have discharged water from the Middle Dnepr Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) for an even greater flooding of territories, which indicates that Kiev planned a large-scale sabotage in Novaya Kakhovka in advance, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday.

    “In addition, according to the available data, the discharge of water from the Middle Dnepr HPP has been significantly increased, which leads to even greater flooding of territories. This fact testifies to a large-scale sabotage planned in advance by the Kiev regime,” Shoigu said.

    On the one hand, it’s what one WOULD see if Ukraine blew the dam. On the other hand, it’s what Russia WOULD claim if they blew the dam. No help there. But it’s been raised as an issue.

    #136377
    Red
    Participant

    taradiddle | ˈtarəˌdɪd(ə)l | (also tarradiddle)
    noun informal, chiefly British
    a petty lie: no sane person would make up such a taradiddle.
    • [mass noun] pretentious nonsense: this taradiddle from him about his new radio show.
    ORIGIN
    late 18th century: perhaps related to diddle.

    New word for me had to look it up. Found here:

    #257: Of theory and practice


    …and yes I know the shill part but who isn’t in this world of fiat? Besides those who read and comment only.

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