Watch Serbia — Greece is Serbia's Germany


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    Viscount St. Albans

    In Southeastern Europe: Greece is the core and countries like Serbia are the Periphery. How about that for Stability

    Some interesting Serbia notes:

    25% unemployment

    Economy began to contract again in 1st half of 2012. First official contraction since global crisis in 2008-2009.

    Think about that: 25% unemployment and it’s only just now starting its double dip

    Worst performing currency in Europe: Serbian Dinar has lost 50% of its value relative to dollar since 2008

    Significant banking system linkages to Greece.

    Serbian Central Bank’s Political Independence is faltering: Central Bank Governor resigned in protest in early August

    IMF suspended its loans in February 2012 due to non-compliance.

    World Bank and European Commission are grumbling

    I’d suspect that Serbian finances may go critical prior to Hungary’s banking system. Like much of South Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Romania), Serbia’s fate is tightly connected to fate of Greek Banks which maintain significant credit lines to Serbian businesses.

    Politics: Slobodan Milosevic’s wartime spokesman became prime minister in July, and Tomislav Nikolic, who served as deputy prime minister of the former Yugoslavia toward the end of Milosevic’s regime, was sworn in as president in June

    Size Comparison: About same population as Bulgaria (7+ million) and an economy that is about 80% of Bulgaria’s GDP.

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