Very carefully written article which is of high quality. Thanks for it. Now some of my own perceptions.
First I think that Putin is using very similar strategy to the Cold War. His main statement is – if they don’t obey, I will show them how easily I can destabilize them (but not invade). Ucraine is the one who loses heavily. Their gas and oil prices were increased to the Western standard. And there is almost no help from EU. EU does not care about free and independent Ucraine. It wants Ucraine to be a market for its second to third quality goods + land to plant their crops. They will not give it energetic independency.
Ucrainians are alone in this conflict. Putin knows it. This makes it impossible to believe he would want to provoke such a horrendous act of terrorism. He is no Magneto from XMEN to kill people just to prove he was right. He is smart and he knows how to play this. This is why all the blaming without actually knowing anything seems so inefficient. Dutch government still maintains its neutral policy, which enables it to react strategically later. Anyway, passengers are dead already. Nothing can be done to return them to life.