Um, I may be a little thick, but why the assumption of 2016 demand rebound in all three scenarios? If credit is fully unwound and asset prices return to mean, how is the consumption paid for? Don’t forget, producer credit directly influences consumption as oil co. spending/salaries AND as knock-on spending in broader economy.
Musashi
Thank you, Ilargi. I face the disconnect of nature and society all-the-day everyday. It is at once fascinating in complexity and dispiriting in immensity. And though we – mostly – sail alone through the malaise, blogs like yours ensure two ships don’t pass in the night.