As the No-Volume Market Churns
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It is probably unsurprising that, as December saw redemptions of almost $25 billion from U.S. equity and mixed-equity funds (to bring total equity out
[See the full post at: As the No-Volume Market Churns]“So what is the conclusion? I think there is a real chance now that Greece does suffer a hard and messy default and that financial markets could suffer a serious wobble if it occurs.”
Scuttlebutt on KD’s site suggests the same conclusion:
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=202112Agree the low volume is bearish, wouldn’t the chart strongly suggest however it was about to turn up.?
Golden Oxen post=367 wrote: Agree the low volume is bearish, wouldn’t the chart strongly suggest however it was about to turn up.?
The key thing to note is that volume has been dropping off while the market has rallied, both short-term and over the last 3 years. Volume may very well pick up on the way down.
I thought most trading was dark pool trading these days. I don’t think this is reflected in the chart.
JoeP,
That’s a good point, but dark pool trading necessarily involves the biggest institutions out there, and so the point that small to mid-size retail and institutional investors are not participating much is still valid. How long can the big boys churn the markets between each other and manipulate data/prices while the fundamentals become downright revolting and everyone else is rapidly losing confidence in the system? More importantly, who wants to bet their “savings” on their ability to answer that question.
JoeP,
Indeed, but, a lot more people who manage a lot more money and wield more influence than you and I are also asking those questions now, especially after MF Global.
It tends to get lonely when you’re so far ahead of the pack, huh? 😉
No, I do not want to bet my life’s savings. The defender of my currency however assures me that he will make it worthless soon if I don’t. His recent actions have assured me he is not bluffing. What to do, What to do?? Have tried gold and silver stocks as well as some oils, but not working out very well so far. No answers here, just questions???
Golden Oxen,
You currency becoming worthless is not the main concern right now (assuming its $). There are no good options, only less bad ones, and cash is the least bad right now for preserving purchasing power, as well as “hard assets” for moving towards self-sufficiency. Almost every situation in which your money is tied up with a second, third, fourth…nth party is a very bad one, and that obviously includes all investments in equities and commodities, as well as most bonds. Physical gold and silver are only good if you can afford to sit on it and keep it secure for at least a few years of very harsh deleveraging.
In case anyone is interested the RT television channel has a good business program which runs weekdays from 4:30 to 5:00 PM (Eastern time).
It is called Capital Account. All of the shows which run on television can be accessed from their website, but it sometimes takes a day or two before all of the links to the latest shows are added. The following is the link to their website:
More on Greek possible default. https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/greek-default-plan-jp-morgan-also-possesses-it/
Is this exceptionally low volumn the precursor to a tidal wave? The current “feel good” retoric that the economy is improving without any real changes that would improve the banking system–like a new Glass-Stegal law–is, I think, nothing more than campaign rhetoric. In fact, the bankers have just been given a substanial reprieve visa a vis the mortgage fraud scandle. Is it business as usual, or even worse?
Another interesting chart courtesy of Elliot Wave:
“‘Beware the buyback,’ reported Barron’s over a story about a new study by Rockdale Research. ‘The most unexpected thing…was that corporations tend to buy back stocks at peaks, not troughs.
“[Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist] made the same observation in 1995…noting, ‘Company officers are part of the market’s psychological fabric just like everyone else, and they tend to become bold when things look good, and that’s usually near a top.’”
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