Sandro Botticelli Portrait of a Young Woman 1480 – 1485
Elon Musk "has been seen at Mar-a-Lago nearly every single day since Donald Trump won, dining with him on the patio at times" and "weighing in on staffing decisions, making clear his preference for certain roles," @kaitlancollins reports pic.twitter.com/iIueEaP7mi
— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) November 11, 2024
Homan
JUST IN: Donald Trump announces former ICE director Tom Homan will be his new “Border Czar.”
Here is a previous spat Homan had with AOC.
“I am pleased to announce that the Former
ICE Director, and stalwart on Border Control, Tom Homan, will be joining the Trump Administration,… pic.twitter.com/acZfsy2WoE— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 11, 2024
https://twitter.com/i/status/1855841037769470295
Peace
The mainstream media has been exposed for being the propaganda wing of the Democrat Party. Americans are waking up. pic.twitter.com/7tzK705MH1
— @amuse (@amuse) November 9, 2024
Breton
ICYMI: French Politician Thierry Breton Reveals EU Institutions Had “Absolutely No Right to Speak” About Stopping the War in Ukraine Before Trump’s Win
The former EU commissioner has just said the quiet part out loud – the bloc can’t even speak if that voice disagrees with US… pic.twitter.com/IMyPTtedue
— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) November 11, 2024
Change
Trump: "These poor fools talk about global warming… It's going to global warm to a point where the oceans will rise 1/8 of an inch in 355 years… And in the meantime we're spending our wealth on this foolish stuff."
"The wind doesn't work. It's very expensive, kills the… pic.twitter.com/8prfV68CZg
— Wide Awake Media (@wideawake_media) November 11, 2024
Pelosi
Joe Biden is a primary target of much of the rage and contempt of Democrats for losing the election.
Just a few short months ago, Nancy Pelosi said he's not just one of the greatest presidents of all time, but belongs on Mt. Rushmore:pic.twitter.com/lYyw4ZFjG8
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) November 11, 2024
“People in the media are aware of how illegitimately they’ve done their jobs that they think they’re on the verge of being locked up” —Scott Adams
• Mysteries Revealed (Jim Kunstler)
You must admit, it’s a little spooky how quickly and rigorously Mr. Trump intends to deconstruct those parts of the government at war with the people: clean out “rogue bureaucrats,” firehose the malignant agencies, release and expose their document trails on spying, censorship, lawfare, and abuse-of-power. The consequence would be the return of consequence in our national life. It’s been absent for so long you can hardly imagine its power to get people’s minds right. There are already reports of frenzy among the culpable DOJ lawyers, and FBI Director Wray is set to resign before Mr. Trump can fire him. Attorney General Merrick Garland has gone radio-silent for his own good since Election Day. Expect many abiding mysteries to get unraveled, such as exactly how many federal agents did work the crowd around the Capitol on J-6, 2021 — which Mr. Wray has pretended to not be able to discuss “due to ongoing investigations.”
Expect to learn more about the pipe-bomb caper at the DNC HQ a few blocks away that same day. Prepare to be amazed at how deeply criminal these schemes were. You must wonder if the document-shredding party is already underway, despite calls to preserve all the emails, memos, and texts. Then there are the poisoned realms of the intel blob located at CIA, DHS, State, DOD, and elsewhere being subject to inquiry and overhaul. Think: John Brennan, James Clapper, Bill Barr, Michael Atkinson, Mayorkas, Judge Boasberg, Mary McCord, Col. Vindman, Senator Warner, Avril Haines, Victoria Nuland, Samantha Power, Gina Haspel, Marie Yovanovitch, Jen Easterly, all their deputies, and many more unknown to the public. Some of these names may yet seem obscure to you. They were all neck-deep in what looks a lot like sedition, treason, real conspiracies, not theories.
Even state officials such as New York AG Letitia James, Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, and Fulton County, GA, DA Fani Willis, would be subject to federal charges under 18USC Section 242: willful deprivation of constitutional rights acting under color of law. That is exactly what the Trump lawfare cases amounted to. And then, of course, there are the long-running rumors of pedophilia and human trafficking networks among the elite, the Jeffrey Epstein list and the P. Diddy list. If these things exist, and they are released, history would shudder. Think: the Clinton Foundation. These people are looking ahead 70 days with visions of shoes dropping and hammers falling. If the mysteries are revealed, it’s hard to imagine that criminal proceedings would not be far behind. You can also imagine that the motivation across a broad and powerful elite class runs white-hot to stop Mr. Trump from entering the Oval Office.
So, these days ahead will be fraught with threats, schemes, plots, ploys, and deceptions. The paranoia must be out of this world among people who still have the resources and hold the levers-of-power needed to undertake nefarious deeds. There is chatter about “a coup” being considered among as-yet-unnamed parties in the Pentagon to prevent Mr. Trump from rising back into power. It’s unclear how that would work among our high command of transsexual generals and admirals and their hapless DEI adjutants. The strata of colonels benath them might have different ideas. But it could be the starting gun for actual civil war. We would find out what the Second Amendment is all about. “Joe Biden” likes to say that the citizenry can’t go up against his F-16 war-planes, but he evidently does not understand how much mischief can be made with small arms — rifles, grenades, rockets, drones — despite examples of it all over the world lately. That is hypothetical for now, of course.
In short, these are dangerous times. Mr. Trump would be advised to stay out of airplanes until inauguration day and to be extra-careful who he puts himself around, especially in public. You also must expect more lawfare of the most extreme sort going forward to January, every possible stone unturned to find procedural tricks to prevent certification of the election. Do you think Norm Eisen, Marc Elias, and Andrew Weissmann just laid back and watched football this weekend? They are probably quarterbacking efforts to finagle ballots for the remaining contested seats in Congress, in order to game-out Rep. Jamie Raskin’s well-publicized block-Trump play this coming Jan. 6.
“..he ultimately chose not to go after his Democratic rival, arguing that it would have “looked terrible” for the country.”
It’s not his style. But the likes of Comer and Jordan can still do it.
• Rep. Byron Donalds Says ‘Enemies-List’ Rumor Is A Lie (RT)
President-elect Donald Trump does not have any sort of blacklist of people that he is supposedly planning to punish after taking office, Florida Congressman Byron Donalds told Fox News on Sunday. Several US officials and media outlets have been speculating that Trump has, as one described it, a “vendetta against people that he believes have crossed him” and that he plans to go after his critics and perceived enemies. “There’s never been a set of threats like this made by a candidate for president of the United States,” Michael Bromwich, a former inspector general at the US Department of Justice told The Hill ahead of the November 5 vote, in which Trump beat his Democratic rival Kamala Harris. However, Congressman Donalds has dismissed these concerns, arguing that Trump has never said he would make it his mission to prosecute his detractors.
“For the American people who have been listening to these lies from the Democratic left, I will tell you: This is not something that Donald Trump has ever spoken to, or he’s committed to, whatsoever. There’s no ‘enemies list’,” Donalds told Fox News. The Republican added that Trump does not intend to focus his attention on going after his detractors and is instead committed to helping the American people and addressing the country’s top issues, such as securing the US-Mexico border, deporting illegal immigrants and improving the economy and energy. “His focus is the American people, not some ‘enemies list’,” Donalds insisted. Throughout his rallies, press interviews and social media posts, Trump has regularly spoken about a group of “enemies” within the US government that he has defined as “radical-left lunatics” that allegedly have been acting against America’s best interests.
During a podcast interview with Joe Rogan, Trump has also stated that these “enemies within” pose a bigger danger to the US than some of its foreign adversaries. However, Trump has dismissed concerns from the Democratic party that he would try to prosecute his political opponents and has pointed out that, after winning against Hillary Clinton in 2016, he ultimately chose not to go after his Democratic rival, arguing that it would have “looked terrible” for the country. Trump has claimed that the Biden-Harris administration, on the other hand, has weaponized the US Department of Justice, and has been using it to shut down its opponents, including the former president himself. Earlier this year, a Manhattan jury found the Republican candidate guilty on 34 felony counts related to alleged hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels and to his role in the January 6, 2021 Capitol Hill riots.
“Trump himself has said he believes that as many as 21 million are in the country illegally..”
• Trump Confirms He Has No Choice but to Carry Out Mass Deportations (ET)
President-elect Donald Trump said this week that his incoming administration has “no choice” but to carry out mass deportations of illegal immigrants, regardless of how much it may cost. Speaking with NBC News on Thursday, the president-elect was asked about how much it would cost to carry out his deportation plan, which he made reference to numerous times during his presidential campaign. “It’s not a question of a price tag,” Trump said, adding that “really, we have no choice.” “When people have killed and murdered, when drug lords have destroyed countries. And now they’re going to go back to those countries because they’re not staying here. There is no price tag.” His campaign had pledged to expel about 11 million people who are not authorized to be in the United States, although Trump himself has said he believes that as many as 21 million are in the country illegally.
“We obviously have to make the border strong and powerful, and we have to—at the same time, we want people to come into our country,” he said before signaling that the United States still needs legal immigrants. “And you know, I’m not somebody that says, ‘No, you can’t come in.’ We want people to come in.” Both Democrats and the nonprofit American Immigration Council have been critical of the mass deportation proposal, with the NGO estimating in a report that Trump’s plan may cost as much as $315 billion overall. In campaign events and media appearances, both Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance have said that Americans would see longstanding economic benefits from the deportation plan. During his only debate with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Vance said that illegal immigrants are a reason why housing and rent prices have soared across the United States in recent years.
“Kicking out illegal immigrants who are competing for those homes” would help bring down housing costs, Vance said on Oct. 1. Some economists have disagreed with Vance’s assertions, saying that the increase in housing prices stems from a long period of underbuilding in the United States due to land-use regulations. But aside from the economic impact, Vance has argued that illegal immigration has devastated parts of the country, including places that are far from the U.S. border with Mexico. Illegal immigrants have overwhelmed schools, hospitals, and other systems across the United States, he’s said on several occasions, including during his debate with Walz, who was Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate.
“In communities all across this country, you’ve got schools that are overwhelmed, you’ve got hospitals that are overwhelmed, you have got housing that is totally unaffordable because we brought in millions of illegal immigrants to compete with Americans for scarce homes,” Vance said in his lone debate. Trump has vowed to invoke the Alien Enemies Act, a 1798 law signed by second President John Adams that allows the president to deport any noncitizen from a country the United States is at war with. He has spoken about deploying the National Guard, which can be activated on orders from a governor. Stephen Miller, a top Trump adviser, has said that troops under Republican governors would be sent to nearby states that refuse to participate. Amid questions about how such a deportation plan would play out, Vance has said that deporting millions would be done one step at a time, not all at once.
“The public is again being told to ignore the man behind the curtain. However, much of the public has already left.”
• Trump’s Election Produced a Moment of Unintended Honesty (Turley)
The philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche once said, “I’m not upset that you lied to me, I’m upset that from now on I can’t believe you.” Those words came to mind as leading scientific and media figures lost any semblance of restraint or neutrality in bemoaning the results of the presidential election. After regaining their composure, the public was told to ignore what they had just seen. It was not surprising that the sweeping Trump victory last week produced near hysteria among some Harris supporters from women pledging to break up with men to others cutting off their hair to those pledging to flee the country (including one curiously announcing that he was “leaving the United States” for Hawaii). It also may not be such a surprise that New York Gov. Kathy Hochul would label over half of the electorate as “anti-American” for voting for Trump or other Republican politicians or Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announcing that we are now officially moving into a dictatorship due to this democratic election.
It is the media elite that was most interesting to watch. Obviously, the response on MSNBC and CNN were expected as figures like contributor Claire McCaskill wept on air. However, other news organizations like CBS News have long maintained claims of neutrality even as their networks were criticized for openly pushing the Harris-Walz ticket. That included the alleged biased handling of the vice-presidential debate as CBS insisted that its hosts and journalists were completely neutral in the election. Yet, after the election, there was CBS News anchor John Dickerson getting choked up on national television in an interview on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. Dickerson chose to go on a show that has been openly anti-Trump for years. Nevertheless, many were surprised that, even days after the election, Dickerson was still overwhelmed by grief. Colbert asked: “How would you explain that to a 14-year-old today? How would you explain this election?” “I’ll try not to think about my boys because,” Dickerson started to respond before losing his composure.
It was one thing for these late-night hosts like Jimmy Kimmel to tear up over the results, but this is one of the top news figures on one of the three top networks. Thus far there is no backlash at CBS. That is in sharp contrast to the recent controversy involving CBS News host Tony Dokoupil who was immediately criticized by CBS for his criticism of an author for his anti-Israeli views as showing bias. Dokoupil reportedly was pushed into an “emotional meeting” with network staffers upset with his perceived bias in favor of Israel. So how does CBS feign neutrality when an anchor gets choked up at the thought of a Trump victory? The answer is easy: The public is told to ignore it and trust a journalist who cannot even discuss the election results without fighting back tears. That message was even more jarring at Scientific American. Once a popular, science-based publication, the magazine has been increasingly criticized for its political slant and pseudoscientific views. Much of the blame has focused on Laura Helmuth, the editor-in-chief.
After the election, Helmuth had a raving, profanity-laden meltdown on social media. She called Gen X voters f**king racists”. She dismissed “solidarity to everybody whose meanest, dumbest, most bigoted high-school classmates are celebrating early results because f**k them to the moon and back.” She even added a condemnation to her fellow Indianans as “racist and sexist” for voting for Trump. The postings dispensed with faux claims of neutrality, and many again raised long-standing concerns over the magazine’s direction. Helmuth responded by deleting the comments and just telling readers to effectively forget she said it. In fairness, Helmuth was trying to separate her personal views from those as the editor-in-chief. However, her “expression of shock and confusion about the election results” parallels what many have objected to the political turn of the magazine in recent years.
In 2020, Scientific American broke a 175-year tradition of non-partisanship to endorse Joe Biden in the presidential election. Conservatives have complained about the tenor and thrust of the magazine, which was once entirely apolitical. The point is that Helmuth’s rage is not confined to her social media account. The public is again being told to ignore the man behind the curtain. However, much of the public has already left.
“Trump’s performance was the best among young people (18-29 years old) in 20 years, the best among Black voters in 48 years, and the best among Hispanic voters in more than 50 years.”
• Why the Campaign Against Trump This Time is Different (Turley)
The single most common principle of recovery programs is that the first step is to admit that you have a problem. That first step continues to elude the politicians and pundits who unsuccessfully pushed lawfare and panic politics for years. That includes prosecutors like New York Attorney General Letitia James and politicians like Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who affirmed this week that they will be redoubling, not reconsidering, their past positions. For its part, The Washington Post quickly posted an editorial titled “The second resistance to Trump must start now.” They may, however, find the resistance more challenging both politically and legally this time around. It is important to note at the outset that there is no reason Democratic activists should abandon their values just because they lost this election. Our system is strengthened by passionate and active advocacy.
Rather, it is the collective fury and delirium of the post-election protests that was so disconcerting. Pundits lashed out at the majority of voters, insisting that the election established that half of the nation is composed of racists, misogynists or domination addicts who long to submit to tyranny. Others blamed free speech and the fact that social media allows “disinformation” to be read by ignorant voters. In other words, the problem could not possibly be themselves. It was, rather, the public, which refused to listen. That does not bode well for the Democratic Party. As someone raised in a liberal politically active family in Chicago, I had hoped for greater introspection after this election blowout. Ordinarily, recovery can begin with “a terrible experience” when someone hits rock bottom.
After a crushing electoral defeat and the loss of the White House and likely both houses of Congress, one would think that Democrats would be ready for that first step to recovery. However, those hoping for a new leaf on the left do not understand the true addictive hold of rage. In my recent book, “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” I explore rage and our long history of rage politics. There is a certain release that comes with rage in allowing people to do and say things that you would never do or say. People rarely admit it, but they like it. It is the ultimate high produced by the lowest form of political discourse. Over the course of the last eight years, the U.S. has become a nation of rage addicts. For months, Democratic leaders denounced Donald Trump and his supporters as fascists and neo-Nazis. President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and others suggested that democracy itself was about to die unless Democrats were kept in power.
Just before the election, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul called those voting for Trump “anti-American.” By Hochul’s measure, over half of the American electorate is now “anti-American.” James is the face of lawfare. She may have done more to reelect Trump than anyone other than the president himself. She ran on nailing Trump on something, anything. In New York, she was joined by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg in this ill-conceived effort. They fulfilled the narrative of a weaponized legal system. Every new legal action seemed to produce another surge in polling for Trump. Yet there James was, soon after the election, with another press conference promising again to unleash the powers of her office to stop Trump’s policies. Then there was Pritzker, doing the community theater version of “The Avengers” and declaring, “You come for my people, you come through me.”
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) added that he too will “fight to the death” against Trump’s agenda. Rather than lower the rhetoric, these rage-addicts ran out for another hit. Our prior periods of rage politics were largely ended by the public in major election shifts like the one this month. Things, however, are different this time around both politically and legally. The problem for the resistance is the very democracy that they claimed to be saving. Democrats lost after opposing policies supported by an astonishing share of the public at a time of deep political division. That effort included opposing voter ID laws favored by 84 percent of the public, among other things. They are now committed to opposing policies central to this election blowout, including deportations of illegal immigrants, which is favored in some polls by two-thirds of Americans.
Likewise, Democrats have already doubled down on attacks on free speech, including blaming their loss on the absence of sufficient censorship. On MSNBC, host Mika Brzezinski blamed the loss in part on “massive disinformation.” Yet, according to some polls, free speech ranked as high as second among issues on Election Day. According to CNN, Trump’s performance was the best among young people (18-29 years old) in 20 years, the best among Black voters in 48 years, and the best among Hispanic voters in more than 50 years.
The party is trying to take over from their President.
• Senate Majority Leader Race Heats Up (ZH)
On Wednesday, the Senate is set to vote to elect its next leader, after the Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) – the party’s longest-serving Republican leader, is set to step aside. The three top candidates to replace him are neocon Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX) and John Thune (R-TX), and Trump ally Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) – who notably has the backing of MAGA and Elon Musk. On Sunday, Musk posted a poll on X asking followers to vote on who they would like to see lead the Senate. Scott won overwhelmingly. On Sunday, President-elect Trump urged whoever the next Senate leader is, they “must agree to Recess Appointments (in the Senate!), without which we will not be able to get people confirmed in a timely manner.” “Sometimes the votes can take two years, or more. This is what they did four years ago, and we cannot let it happen again. We need positions filled IMMEDIATELY! Additionally, no Judges should be approved during this period of time because the Democrats are looking to ram through their Judges as the Republicans fight over Leadership. THIS IS NOT ACCEPTABLE. THANK YOU!”
Thune responded to this, telling Fox News: “I’ve spent eight months carefully listening to my colleagues about their vision for the next chapter of the Senate Republican Conference, especially as we hit the ground running with President Trump,” adding “One thing is clear: We must act quickly and decisively to get the president’s cabinet and other nominees in place as soon as possible to start delivering on the mandate we’ve been sent to execute, and all options are on the table to make that happen, including recess appointments.” That said, Thune and Cornyn have historically talked mad shit about Trump.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1855813889956446511
Video resurfaces of Senator John Cornyn saying Trump "can't win in 2024" because he doesn't appeal to people beyond his base.
Trump won the 2024 election in a landslide by appealing to people beyond his base.
Cornyn is currently fighting for the GOP Senate leader position but… pic.twitter.com/uWmyHFQ4di
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 11, 2024
Lisa Monaco? Are you nuts?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1856048665275838933
“There really is no choice. Cutting $2 trillion out of the budget is a good start, but it is not enough. These have to be real cuts, not fake cuts in the rate of growth.”
• The Economic Challenges Facing the Trump Administration (Jeffrey Tucker)
The first great challenge to the future Trump administration will be controlling inflation. It is coming back already and we might face a second wave that emerges in the summer. Throughout the presidential campaign, we’ve had almost no honest talk about the reasons for this devastation. It cannot be stopped through “anti-gouging” legislation. No one ever believed that this would achieve anything. The message had no public resonance at all. But just as crucially, the inflation was not kicked off by energy regulation and throttles on oil and gas production. Those restrictions increased transportation costs, yes, but the oil price now is not high and inflation is still a menace. vThe root of the problem is so unbearably obvious that it feels absurd to point it out. For two years, the money stock grew $6 trillion on the back of a wild spending bonanza by Congress, all of which was paid for by Federal Reserve purchases of new debt.
Because the new money was directly distributed to the population as if by helicopter, it watered down the value of the U.S. dollar in terms of goods and services. Growth stopped with rate increases, but the Fed has reversed itself again in an attempt to forestall recession. Right now, the money stock is growing again, thanks to a great deal of U.S. Treasury releases designed to prettify the GDP ahead of the election. There is no easy fix to this. Lowering energy prices with more supply can help, but there is a point at which lower prices actually reduce supply, simply because it no longer pays the bills to drill and refine. By all means, deregulate. But this much I can promise you: It will not fix the inflation problem. Nor should the Trump administration be overly concerned about the boogeyman called “deflation.” The people always benefit from rising purchasing power. Producers can cope just fine, as the computer and software industries have proven for the better part of 30 years.
Absolutely no policy choices should be made under the motive to stop deflation. That is in no way a threat right now. Ideally, the Trump administration would seek a fix to the problem of the Fed, such as permanently ending open-market operations and debt support. The effect of such changes long-term would be glorious, but it will not stop the problem that exists right now. Price controls are anathema under all circumstances. The best single strategy to deal with the immediate problem is to inspire investment via dramatic tax cuts (capital and income) plus huge and far-reaching deregulation of everything, to lower the costs of start-ups and the operation of small businesses. That is essential. Keep in mind that the usual suspects will scream that higher growth only makes inflation worse. This is wrong. There’s no other way to put it. It’s just bad analytics stemming from outdated models.
Higher growth does not feed inflation. It mitigates it, burying its impact amid more opportunities and greater wealth creation. Think of it as a race. Growth needs to rise well above inflation rates. The tax cuts will also put more money in the hands of producers and consumers, granting more control over wealth to the public so that the ghostly tax increases of inflation will have less of an impact. That will reduce government revenue and increase the debt, which is inflationary, too, so that is a major problem. Again, there is an answer in the form of far-reaching spending cuts. There really is no choice. Cutting $2 trillion out of the budget is a good start, but it is not enough. These have to be real cuts, not fake cuts in the rate of growth.
Some revenue shortfalls can be covered by tariffs, but there are potential pitfalls here. There are three reasons for tariffs: revenue, the protection of industry, and the rebalancing of settlement systems. They work at cross purposes. The revenue comes from paying the tariffs. They are only paid when trade occurs. Protection happens when trade does not take place on the scale it otherwise would have. The more protection, the less revenue. The more revenue, the less protection. Do you see the problem? Relying on tariffs to make up revenue losses from tax cuts absolutely requires the continued existence of imports, especially on high-dollar capital goods. Seeking ever more revenue from this source perpetuates the problem of international industrial competition. As for rebalancing trade, that likely cannot happen so long as the dollar (and petrodollar) are the final means of payment.
Peter Schiff and Ed Dowd have dire predictions. Martin Armstrong says just eliminate income tax. You’ll have a boom.
• Peter Schiff: What’s Next for Trump? (SchiffGold)
In the latest episode of the Peter Schiff Show, Peter dissects Donald Trump’s dominant election victory and spends most of the show evaluating America’s economic prospects under his second term. He also hits on Bitcoin’s recent price surge and announces a new lawsuit launched against the IRS and other parties responsible for the closing of Peter’s bank in Puerto Rico. Peter starts the episode by pointing out the obvious reason Trump won. Despite what the media and political class insists, it’s not bigotry or hatred: “I want to remind my audience why he won and why I was so confident for so long that he was going to win. He won because the economy is lousy. That’s why he won the first time in 2016. That’s why I predicted he was going to win in 2016, because back in 2015, the media was selling the same BS—mainstream media, Wall Street—that we had a great economy. … Donald Trump was basically saying the same thing that I was. It was almost like he was watching my podcast and then going out and stomping on the campaign trail, talking about how the economy was actually bad, how the numbers were a fraud.”
The state of the economy explains why Trump was able to assemble a coalition unlike any other in recent Republican history: “He got 20% of the African American vote. I mean, it dwarfs what he got the first time—I think he got 88% white support and maybe 12% African American. Twenty percent! That’s the biggest percentage of the African American vote that Republicans have had in, I don’t know, 20 years… The guy’s supposed to be a racist, and he’s getting more African American support than other Republicans who supposedly were racist. Why did he get all these African American votes? Because they’re suffering in this economy.” Much of the Trump campaign’s rhetoric on deregulation is solid. Peter, however, urges caution on deregulating the financial sector. Unless banking subsidies and bailouts are taken off the table, further deregulation will just reward banks for bad fiscal behavior:
“In banking, it’s almost not really two wrongs make a right, but two wrongs make a lesser wrong. So once you make the mistake of providing all these subsidies and government guarantees to banks, then the government needs to step up and regulate them because you’ve now eliminated the free market regulation. So now what they’re going to do is deregulate the banks so they can take even bigger risks with taxpayer money.” The GOP has a strong mandate to reform the federal government, and they should. But it’s unlikely they’ll actually make meaningful change: “Politicians have been promising for years to cut waste, fraud, and abuse. They never do it. Yes, when Elon Musk bought Twitter, he made major cuts. He had the kitchen sink, and he got rid of a lot of dead wood. That’s because he owned the company. He could do what he wants. He’s not going to be able to do that with the government. The real spending cuts are going to have to get approved by Congress.”
Any more Trump tax cuts will put pressure on already rising long-term rates and likely induce the Fed to return to QE: “The Fed is going to have to go back to QE, which is what I’ve been saying they’re going to do. The only way to stop long-term interest rates from soaring and crushing the economy, the stock market, the banks, and everything Trump is promising to pump up, is if the Fed goes back to quantitative easing to monetize the massive budget deficits that the tax cuts produce—at least in the short run.” The worst case for Trump’s second term is a major financial crisis. If the economy blows up in the next four years, Trump will be blamed, and the left will benefit:
“If everything collapses right away, you know, see what Trump did, and they’re going to tie Trump to capitalism, free markets, deregulation, less government. So they’re going to really hang this collapse on free-market capitalism and Trump. And if you thought Kamala was left-wing, wait till you see who we elect in four years, you know, because of this collapse.” One way to ameliorate America’s economic problems would be to slowly return to the gold standard.
“The incoming Trump Administrating has to get out in front of the narrative. This was already baked into the cake..”
• Trump Inherits Turd of an Economy – Ed Dowd (USAW)
Former Wall Street money manager Ed Dowd is a skillful financial analyst who said in May the economy was skidding. Now, Dowd predicts the economy is poised to “roll over” and soon. Why is the Fed cutting rates with a record high DOW? Maybe they see the same thing he does. Dowd explains, “Real weekly wage growth was minus 2% going into the election. It is also interesting to know that minus 2% number of wage growth was also in 1980 when Ronald Reagan won in a landslide and also in 1992 when Bill Clinton won in a landslide. . . . I have never seen such blatant manipulation of government statistics. There is government spending and government hiring to paper over what is truly a bad economy for the average man. When I was asked prior to the election who do you think will win the election, I said Trump has already won, according to the economic statistics. That’s why he won.
Bobby Kennedy helped along with Elon Musk, Joe Rogan, lots of people switching and what have you. What really got Trump in was the economy, the real economy, not the stock market. It was not the ‘everything is hunky-dory’ pablum from the mainstream media. The real economy has been rolling over, and we are just waiting for the financial markets to figure this out. When they do, Trump is going to inherit a turd of a financial market crisis. Government statistics will be updated, and it will show we started a recession sometime this year. . . . The incoming Trump Administrating has to get out in front of the narrative. This was already baked into the cake. They just got handed fraudulent books. So, they are basically going to get blamed for what is coming. They have to get in front of the narrative and talk about what they were handed. They need to talk about how the stock market is not a real indicator of economic health like it was before the days of raw manipulation.”
The other big problem that Trump needs to get in front of is the CV19 bioweapon vax disaster. Dowd says, “We have been monitoring and tracking excess deaths, disabilities and injuries such as heart attacks, neurological problems, cancers and liver issues. There is a whole host of issues that have gone off the charts since the introduction of the Covid vaccines. As of 2023, there was about 1.2 million excess deaths in the US. There were about four million disabilities and about 32 million injured. . . . Our calculations, conservatively speaking, are 8 million to 15 million dead globally, 40 million to 60 million disabled and 500 million to 900 million injured where their immune system is so compromised that they are getting sick all the time. You’ve got to think about it as a funnel.
Most of the numbers are injured, and then the next level down are disabled and then dead. People can funnel down from one category to the next. We have a problem here because we have 10% to 13% excess mortality currently running. . . . We are running once in 200 year flood numbers in 2024. . . . This is not over. It is going to stay with us for decades. The way to mitigate that is there needs to be national awareness so people can treat the problems they have. This is the biggest healthcare failure we have ever seen. We need to pull the mRNA vaccines and have a global truth moment. . . .We continue to go along with a wink and a nod to pretend there is not a problem. We are not going to talk about Covid and the mRNA vaccines, and in my mind, this is unethical, immoral and criminal.” Dowd also talks about the US dollar that is not going away anytime soon, gold that is topping out –for now and how we need to deal with massive amounts of debt.
“You eliminate the income tax, and you are going to have the biggest economic boom in absolute history. You will create so many jobs. You won’t have to worry about the debt..”
• Trump Eliminates Federal Income Tax, Economy Booms – Martin Armstrong (USAW)
Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong is back with some important predictions in his last appearance before the 2024 Election. First, Armstrong’s Socrates computer is still predicting a Trump landslide. Socrates actually factors in cheating to make this “Trump Wins” call. Armstrong says, “In the 2020 Election, it came out the computer said it was 50/50. It did not show a huge landslide one way or another. They rigged it, but it was in Congress is where they did it. . . . There were seven states that were going to be challenged. . . . On January 6 (during the so-called insurrection at the capitol), the FBI has testified they could not even tell how many people they had there. . . . as soon as this happens, Pelosi calls emergency rules. When she did the emergency rules, she shut down any challenge to the seven states. . . . That’s how the 2020 Election was really rigged. . . . in 2024, the gap is too big this time. In 2020, the computer said it was tight. This one, I don’t think they can cheat that much to actually overthrow it.”
If Trump does win, one of the huge changes going to be pushed is the elimination of federal income taxes. Let that sink in. When you hear Donald Trump say he is contemplating doing away with federal taxes, it is not some campaign promise that he intends to break. Armstrong says this is more than doable. When Trump says he can fix the economy, Armstrong contends eliminating federal income tax is a turbocharger for the American economy. Armstrong explains, “If you eliminate the income tax, what will happen is all these other companies that are in different countries are going to want to come here. It’s going to be the biggest economic boom in absolute history.”
Is this why Trump keeps saying he can “fix the economy”? Armstrong says, “Oh yes. The U.S. will make more money than you can ever imagine. When I testified in front of Congress, I said at least lower the tax rate to 15% on corporates. . . . 15% is what Hong Kong was charging, and that was the only reason people were there. . . . We do not need the income tax anymore because we create money anyway. We don’t need to get some money back like gold coins from the public so we can pay our bills. This is an old theory. So, income tax is something we do not need, and we certainly do not need to borrow anymore. Our national debt is exploding because of interest expenditures. . . . You eliminate the income tax, and you are going to have the biggest economic boom in absolute history. You will create so many jobs. You won’t have to worry about the debt. . . . We would get rid of the debt, and the equity would be private companies. If you wanted to create your own studio, there would be capital available to do that.”
Armstrong also talks about gold, who is really running the country and extreme civil unrest coming to America after the 2024 Election.
“A man shows himself in extraordinary conditions – this is where a man shows himself. And he showed himself, in my opinion, in the right way: he showed his courage, as a man…”
• The Fog of War Talk – Favour, Threat (Helmer)
Vladimir Putin, September 5, 2024: “As for my preferences, it is not up to us to decide. After all, the American people will have to make their own choice. As I have already said, we favoured Mr Biden, the current President, but they took him out of the race. That said, he advised his supporters to support Ms Harris. So, we will act accordingly and lend her our support.”
Donald Trump, September 7: “I have a feeling. I don’t know. I don’t know what to say exactly about that. I don’t know if I’m insulted or he did me a favour.”
Kremlin, November 6: “ ‘It is still almost impossible to worsen relations – they are at the lowest point in history,’ [Spokesman Dmitry] Peskov said. When asked if Russian President Vladimir Putin would formally congratulate Trump on his victory, Peskov said he wasn’t aware of any plans for that from the Kremlin, adding, ‘Let’s not forget that we are talking about an unfriendly country that is both directly and indirectly involved in the war against our state…now, after the victory… when entering the Oval Office, sometimes statements take on a different tone. That’s why we say that we carefully analyze everything, observe everything, and draw conclusions based on specific words and concrete steps.’ ”
Kremlin, November 7: “Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Thursday that he had ‘no knowledge’ of any congratulatory message from Putin to Trump. ‘He [Trump] said he would call Putin before the inauguration. Here are his words, we have nothing else to say yet,’ Peskov explained to reporters.’ ” “ ‘It is not out of the question,’ the spokesman told reporters when asked about the matter. ‘He did say he would call Putin before the inauguration. These are his words; we have nothing else to add for now,’ he added.”
Washington, November 10: “U.S. President-elect Donald Trump spoke on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday [November 7] and discussed the war in Ukraine, the Washington Post reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the matter. Trump advised Putin not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of ‘Washington’s sizeable military presence in Europe’, the Post reported.”
Sochi, Putin at the Valdai Club, November 7: “Q: What is the next President like from this point of view? A [Putin] …his behaviour when he faced an assassination attempt really impressed me. He turned out to be a courageous man. And it was not just the raised hand and the call to fight for their shared ideals. It was not just that, although, of course, this was more of a reflex. A man shows himself in extraordinary conditions – this is where a man shows himself. And he showed himself, in my opinion, in the right way: he showed his courage, as a man…what has been said in terms of trying to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion at least deserves attention. Availing myself of this opportunity, I would like to congratulate him on his election as President of the United States of America.
I have already said that we will work with any head of state who has the trust of the American people. We will live up to this pledge…You know, I do not think it would be shameful for me to call him. I do not do this because there was a time when the leaders of Western countries have been calling me almost every week, and then suddenly they stopped. If they do not want to do it, so be it. As you can see, we are alive and well, and are developing, moving ahead. If someone of them wants to resume contacts, I have always said and I want to say again: we have nothing against it. We are ready to resume our contacts and have discussions. But there are many people willing to have discussions, there is a whole audience here, but if not, we will have a discussion with you then. Q: Does this mean that you are ready to have discussions with Trump? A. We are ready, of course.”
“Moscow views long-range strikes with US-supplied weapons as a ‘red line’ which would likely make ceasefire negotiations impossible. The Trump team knows this..”
• Biden To Lobby Trump To Not Cut Support For Ukraine (ZH)
The Biden White House has made clear that it will prioritize attempting convince the incoming Trump administration to keep up massive defense assistance to Ukraine, amid fears the US could essentially abandon the Zelensky government while pursuing peace with Moscow. “President Biden will have the opportunity over the next 70 days to make the case to the Congress and to the incoming administration that the United States should not walk away from Ukraine, that walking away from Ukraine means more instability in Europe,” Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told CBS News on Sunday. President-elect Trump has not stated that he plans to cut all aid, but he did recently mock President Zelensky as the “world’s greatest salesman” for securing hundreds of millions of dollars in new taxpayer funds recently. Incoming VP J.D. Vance has been even more critical of the Ukrainian government. He has on several occasions expressed deep frustration at even fellow Republicans’ willingness to sign over billions to Ukraine with ease.
But Sullivan has vowed that in the interim, the White House plans to get Ukraine the aid passed by Congress “on time and in full.” “Our approach remains the same as it’s been for the last two and a half years, which is to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position on the battlefield so that it is ultimately in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table,” he continued in the “Face the Nation” interview. Interestingly he at one point in the Sunday discussion referenced tensions in southeast Asia involving China, and allies like Japan and Taiwan, claiming that weakened US support to Kiev could signal China that the US is in retreat. “President Biden will make the case that we do need ongoing resources for Ukraine beyond the end of his term, because the threat to Ukraine will remain no matter what exactly happens on the battlefield or at the negotiating table,” Sullivan said.
He again emphasized in his concluding remarks on the program that President Biden “will have sent the full amount of resources and aid to Ukraine the Congress has authorized” by January 20. But Zelensky’s biggest ‘ask’ which is still on the table is permission from the US to use long-range missiles to target deep into Russian territory. He had hoped to get this greenlight from the Biden administration, but the US has clearly rejected it for now. Zelensky is unlikely to get a yes from the future Trump administration as well, given that Trump has prioritized rapidly ending the war and achieving lasting ceasefire. Moscow views long-range strikes with US-supplied weapons as a ‘red line’ which would likely make ceasefire negotiations impossible. The Trump team knows this and is thus unlikely to consider it as a real option.
“In reality, the fate of this country and its puppet leaders will continue to be decided in high offices in Washington..”
• US Could Replace Zelensky – Russian Intel Agency (RT)
The US is considering holding an election in Ukraine next year as a “legitimate” means of replacing the government of Vladimir Zelensky, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed on Monday. Zelensky remains in power in Ukraine despite his term in office having officially expired this May. The politician had earlier opted to scrap presidential elections, citing the martial law that had been imposed in the country due to the conflict with Russia. The US State Department believes Zelensky to be “overly entitled” and may organize presidential and parliamentary votes to remove him in 2025 despite the ongoing fighting, the SVR said in a statement. According to the spy agency’s information, Washington has decided to begin preliminary work aimed at creating conditions for launching an election campaign in Ukraine.
The first stage of the plan will see US-funded NGOs using the structures of Ukrainian civil society under their control to put forward the initiative of holding an election. After it gets “broad public support,” the election candidates would be selected in coordination with the State Department, the SVR said. The observers for the votes will also be appointed by Washington-linked NGOs, it added. The US has already initiated discussions on the creation of a new pro-American party in the country among Ukrainian activists on its payroll, the statement read. The State Department expects this party to make it into the parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, and help the US to keep any future Ukrainian president in check, it added.
The SVR suggested that these activities prove the phrase “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” that American officials have repeated throughout the conflict is just an empty slogan. “In reality, the fate of this country and its puppet leaders will continue to be decided in high offices in Washington,” it said. Last week, Zelensky extended the period of martial law and mobilization in Ukraine until February 2025, amending the relevant legislation for the 13th time since the escalation of the conflict with Russia in February 2022. US President-elect Donald Trump Trump promised many times during his reelection campaign to put a swift end to the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. A source close to Zelensky’s office told Strana.ua last week that the Ukrainian leader would be powerless to resist if Trump decides he wants him to stop fighting and pursue peace with Russia.
“..to “thwart Donald Trump’s efforts to scale back US support for Ukraine.”
• UK and France To Push Biden To Escalate Ukraine Conflict – Telegraph (RT)
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron will again ask US President Joe Biden to allow Kiev strike targets deep inside Russia with Western weapons, The Telegraph reported on Sunday. The UK and France have donated a number of Storm Shadow/Scalp cruise missiles to Ukraine. The US, which provides some components for the European long-range weapons, has a say on how they are used. Biden has repeatedly rejected calls by Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky to allow strikes deep inside Russia, which Moscow said would seriously escalate the conflict. According to Telegraph sources, the leaders of the UK and France will make a “last ditch attempt” to secure a policy change by the outgoing US president to “thwart Donald Trump’s efforts to scale back US support for Ukraine.”
The Republican politician will take office on January 20, after winning last week’s US presidential election. ”We are very keen to make sure we can make the most of the time between now and January 20 and not just put everything on hold until the next administration,” a senior Whitehall source told the British newspaper. Trump claimed on the campaign trail that he could end the Ukraine conflict “in 24 hours” if elected for a second term. He reportedly intends to play hardball with both sides, forcing Kiev and Moscow to compromise. Kiev claims that it could turn the tide on the battlefield by striking targets deep inside Russia with Western long-range weapons. At the weekend, it launched dozens of kamikaze drones at Moscow for the first time in months, but failed to cause any meaningful damage, according to Russian officials.
Western missiles are more powerful than Ukrainian drones and can produce better results, Zelensky has previously argued, explaining why he is seeking permission from donors for such strikes. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that his government would treat any attacks along the lines envisioned by Kiev and its backers as coming from the state that provides the arms. Moscow will react to any such an escalation accordingly, he said.
“..the West launched war in Ukraine to prove its point – that no single country could hope to stand against the combined weight of all NATO. They said that because they believed it.”
• The West’s Very Fundamental Accumulating Contradictions (Alastair Crooke)
The election has occurred; Trump will take office in January; many of the existing Party Nomenklatura will be replaced; different policies will be announced – but actually taking power (rather than just sitting in the White House) will be more complex. The U.S. has devolved into many disparate fiefdoms – almost princedoms – from the CIA to the Justice Department. And regulatory ‘agencies’ too, have been implanted to preserve Nomenklatura hold on the System’s lifeblood. Pulling these ideological adversaries into new thinking will not proceed entirely smoothly. However, the U.S. election also, has been a referendum on the prevalent western intellectual mainstream. And that likely will be more decisive than the U.S. domestic vote – important though that is. The U.S. has shifted strategically away from the managerial techno-oligarchy that took its grip in the 1970s. Today’s shift is reflected across the U.S.
Back in 1970, Zbig Brzezinski (who was to become National Security Adviser to President Carter) wrote a book foreseeing the new era: What he then called ‘The Technetronic Era’, “involved the gradual appearance of a more controlled society. Such a society … dominated by an élite, unrestrained by traditional values … [and practicing] continuous surveillance over every citizen … [together with] manipulation of the behaviour and intellectual functioning of all people … [would become the new norm].” Elsewhere, Brzezinski argued that “the nation-state … has ceased to be the principal creative force: International banks and multinational corporations are acting and planning in terms that are far in advance of the political concepts of the nation-state”. Brzezinski was plain wrong about the benefits of tech cosmopolitan governance.
And he was decisively, and disastrously, wrong in the policy prescriptions that he adduced from the implosion of the Soviet Union in 1991 – that no country or group of countries would ever dare to stand up to U.S. power. Brzezinski argued in The Grand Chessboard that Russia would have no choice but to submit to the expansion of NATO, and to the geopolitical dictates of the U.S. But Russia did not succumb. And as a result of the élites’ 1991 ‘End of History’ euphoria, the West launched war in Ukraine to prove its point – that no single country could hope to stand against the combined weight of all NATO. They said that because they believed it. They believed in the western Manifest Destiny. They did not understand the other options Russia had. Today, the Ukraine war is lost. Hundreds of thousands have died unnecessarily – for a conceit. The ‘other war’ in the Middle East fares no differently. The Israeli-U.S. war on Iran will be lost, and tens of thousands of Palestinians and Lebanese will have died pointlessly.
And the ‘forever wars’ too, that were expected by the Supreme Commander of NATO in the wake of 9/11 to topple an array of states (first Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Iran), not only did they not result in consolidating U.S. hegemony, but they have led instead to Kazan and to BRICS, with its long tail of aspirant members, ready to face down foreign colonialism. The Kazan summit was cautious. It didn’t project a flush of solutions; some BRICS states were hesitant (the U.S. election was scheduled for the following week). Putin’s comments to these latter states were carefully calibrated: Look at what the U.S. can do to you, should you fall foul of it, at any point. Protect yourselves. All that the BRICS President (Putin) could say, at this juncture, was: Here are the problems that [we have to solve]. It is premature to set up a full alternative Bretton Woods structure at this time.
But we can set up the core to a prudent alternative for working in the dollar sphere: a settlement and clearing system, BRICS Clear; a reference unit of account; a re-insurance structure and the BRICS Card – a retail payment card system similar to AliPay. Perhaps a Reserve Currency and the full Bretton Woods paraphernalia will prove unnecessary. Financial technology is evolving fast – and providing that the BRICS clearance system is functional, a multitude of fin-tech separate trade channels may ultimately be what results. But a ‘week is a long time in politics’. And one week later, the western intellectual paradigm was upended. The Shibboleths of the last fifty years were rejected across the board in the U.S. by voters. The ideology of ‘undoing’ the cultural past; the casting aside the lessons of history (for, it is claimed, ‘wrongful’ perspectives) and the rejection of systems of ethics reflected in the myths and stories of a community, have themselves been rejected!
“The courts have never banned such a popular party, setting the stage for a potential national crisis should the motion go through.”
• Germany: Move To Ban AfD May Come Before New Elections (RMX)
With the German government collapsing, one of the main proponents of an Alternative for Germany (AfD) ban, CDU politician Marco Wanderwitz, is pushing for a speedy procedure right before new elections. “Our aim is still to submit the motion and vote on it in this legislative period and thus get the proceedings at the Federal Constitutional Court underway,” he told Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland. He said that things now have to “move quickly.” As Remix News has long reported, MP Wanderwitz, who was defeated by an AfD politician in local elections but gained re-entry into the Bundestag due to being on the CDU party list, has been pushing for a ban for a year. In order to submit a motion to ban the AfD, he needs 37 fellow MPs, or 5 percent of the Bundestag MPs, to vote with him.
Wanderwitz is attempting to capitalize on the arrest of three individuals from the Saxon Separatists group who had links to the AfD, with Wanderwitz claiming that the group has connections to right-wing terrorism. The AfD has indicated that it has no ties to the Saxon Separatists and disavows the group. Notably, many on the left have open connections to left-wing extremist groups, and even the country’s current interior minister, Nancy Faeser, wrote for Antifa Magazine shortly before she won her position, a group known to be funded by a government-designated left-wing extremist group. Politicians in Germany have been split on the issue. CDU leader Friedrich Merz is allegedly no longer fundamentally opposed to a ban, but claims he wants to observe new developments. The FDP, which was once against the move, is now moving closer to a ban.
Notably, both parties stand to gain voters from the rival AfD should a ban move forward. The Greens, meanwhile, want a gradual process towards a ban, including consulting with legal experts. Wanderwitz himself sees a short window for a ban to come about, at least while he is leading the charge. He is set to retire from politics, which means by the time the next government is voted in, he will no longer be a part of it. No matter what happens, a ban on the AfD could take years. Any final ban would have to be approved by the Federal Constitutional Court, and the burden for such a ban is supposed to be very high. Notably, the AfD party routinely polls between 16 and 20 percent of the national vote, and is the second most popular party in the nation. The courts have never banned such a popular party, setting the stage for a potential national crisis should the motion go through.
“..from time to time, that German system of national frustration recycling breaks down at the top. Such a collapse has just occurred.”
• How Blind Support For Ukraine Broke Germany (Amar)
Germans love stability. Their whole political system is designed to prevent change or, at least, to slow it down to a glacial pace. Germans also love to complain. That’s why they can’t stop grousing about the obvious stagnation (another word for “stability”) of their country. They also love compromises that to many others would seem foul and ineffective but appear reasonable and, again, stable to them. That’s why they are stuck between wanting nothing to change and everything to finally get better. Yet, from time to time, that German system of national frustration recycling breaks down at the top. Such a collapse has just occurred. On Wednesday, November 6, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner. He thereby also ended the so-called “traffic light” coalition that has ruled Germany – for bad and for worse – for almost three years.
Named after the colors of the participating parties, the coalition consisted of Scholz’s own “red” SPD party (the Social-Democrats, who are so centrist they might as well be conservatives), the Greens (right-wing NATO-fetishists and fanatic Russophobes who also like to ruin the economy), and the “yellow” FDP (center-right “free-market” liberals whose worst nightmare is taxation). Since former finance minister Linder is also the head of the FDP, booting him out in what the New York Times has rightly described as a “spectacular breakup” led to all other FDP ministers – except one who rather abandoned his party than his cabinet position – also exiting the government. This leaves the latter in existence but dead in the water, commanding only a minority in the federal parliament, and incapable of actually governing.
Now the question is what comes next. Or to be precise, when: Since the parliamentary opposition, mainly the centrist conservatives from the CDU, is not politically suicidal and therefore will certainly not provide majorities for Scholz and his rump government, early elections are inevitable. If the coalition had lasted its full term, they would have taken place at the end of September next year. Now they will happen some time in its first quarter. When exactly is currently a matter of contention. In constitutional terms, how to get to these emergency elections is clear: Scholz will have to call a confidence vote in parliament to predictably lose it. This will allow the German president – mostly a representative figure – to disband the parliament and initiate the elections. (A hypothetically possible variant of this maneuver that would lead directly to the establishment of a new, CDU-conservative-led government has been ruled out, for now, by their leader Friedrich Merz.)
Politically, things are not so simple. Without going into excessive detail, the key fact here is that the constitution sets certain deadlines, but individual players still have room for maneuver. This means that Scholz is interested in delaying the elections until late March, which made him announce his confidence vote for as late as January 15. That was a transparently selfish and desperate attempt to skew a losing game in his favor. Unsurprisingly, his rivals insist on moving much faster. The conservatives from the CDU, trying to profit from their own favorable polling numbers and the ruling coalition’s breakdown and unpopularity, plausibly argue that Scholz is “eine lame duck” (in Germano-English in the original, by the way; the German elite just is that way) and that the country is in crisis and cannot afford an excessive interregnum. Scholz’s former partners, now enemies, in the FDP also call on him to get a move on and “make room.”
This particular game for advantage-by-timing will play out one way or another. But since it won’t make a great difference, it is not very interesting. There are more important issues to discuss. Regarding the causes of the coalition collapse, there are many, of course, including that it was always a rickety contraption bringing together ideologically unsuited partners, represented by often dissembling and backstabbing personalities with immense egos. The premeditated and below-the-belt manner in which Scholz went after his former finance minister after kicking him out was, as the conservative Welt newspaper rightly noted, indecently demagogic. But it was also simply representative of the true, for want of better words, moral climate in that anti-team.
The bitter, cheap mud-slinging from the very top also signaled – once there was nothing to lose and all pretense was dropped – just how much mutual hostility the coalition members used to hide from the public. In that sense, the true, toxic atmosphere among them resembled the senility of outgoing US President Joe Biden – not really a secret for anyone with eyes to see, while still veiled in much opportunistic lying, and, finally, coming out with an unseemly embarrassment made worse by all that preceding hypocrisy. But two issues stick out among the reasons for the end of the coalition: The economy, obviously, and, not so obviously perhaps but all the more intriguingly, Ukraine. The immediate trigger for the showdown among the non-partners were fundamental disagreements over how to address Germany’s deep economic crisis that has made the country the worst performer in the G7.
In addition, the impending second presidency of Donald Trump will make things even harder not only for German politicians but for German business as well: Trump’s long-announced tariff increases are certain to hit Germany, too. Currently, German companies are profiting from a record trade surplus with the US, but that is also painting a giant target on them for Trump. They will face even greater pressures to leave Germany behind as too expensive and shift production elsewhere, including, of course, to the US. The money question was made urgent for the coalition more than a year ago, when Germany’s Constitutional Court invalidated a large chunk of its 2024 budget as, to put it bluntly, fraudulent. Which it was. Since then, the coalition partners have had no money to paper over their differences and this fact, in turn, made it impossible to put a budget together for next year and helped produce the breakdown.
Portrait
https://twitter.com/i/status/1855654187528274183
Perspective
https://twitter.com/i/status/1855875676911337797
Crab guards
https://twitter.com/i/status/1855686117372428659
Japan trains
Why do Japanese trains have such a long nose?
[📹 jasperstorm]pic.twitter.com/CdVQDoWSE6
— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) November 11, 2024
Camel
This man helped trapped baby camel get back safely to its mom. pic.twitter.com/uOd90l1Waf
— Nature is Amazing ☘️ (@AMAZlNGNATURE) November 11, 2024
jump
https://twitter.com/i/status/1856128414903628140
Support the Automatic Earth in wartime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.
Home › Forums › Debt Rattle November 12 2024