Christchurch, China and Peak Oil
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Hey guys, Again apologies for the hiatus in posting from both Nicole and yours truly. It's been a crazy time lately, with 3-4 schedu
[See the full post at: Christchurch, China and Peak Oil]Ilargi,
Are you referring to Stuart Staniford’s TOD article about January production numbers?
I admit to being surprised that C&C rose at all. However, a production rise of 1.5% over four years, with the price of Brent staying over $90 since mid 2009 seems a rather weak basis for questioning the whole peak oil concept. Note that ‘peak Oil’ does not need to mean ‘big kablooey a la 08 financial meltdown’. It can perfectly well be what I think we are seeing now, which is production being maintained only at prices high enough to be a drag on the real economy.
C&C plateaued, and price started up, in ’05 almost 7 years ago. Even with the crunch in 08-09, if there was oil out there that could be produced for less than say $65/bbl it would be coming online by now. It is obviously not.
Illargi –
I would like to know which Stuart Staniford post you were referring to. Do you have a link you could provide?
I was listening to Max Keiser and these are quotes for Chris Cook
Soaring Oil price & weakening US economy-On the Edge with Max Keiser-03-23-2012
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMNO6LGEBiM&feature=player_embedded
independant energy analyst
there is a massive amount of capital in paper oil
speculators are about to spike this buble
pricing mechanism is disfuntional
price manipulated
managed decline or literally collapse
before the end of the second quarter of this yearI was listening to Max Keiser and these are quotes for Chris Cook
Soaring Oil price & weakening US economy-On the Edge with Max Keiser-03-23-2012
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMNO6LGEBiM&feature=player_embedded
independant energy analyst
there is a massive amount of capital in paper oil
speculators are about to spike this buble
pricing mechanism is disfuntional
price manipulated
managed decline or literally collapse
before the end of the second quarter of this yearI was listening to Max Keiser and these are quotes for Chris Cook
Soaring Oil price & weakening US economy-On the Edge with Max Keiser-03-23-2012
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMNO6LGEBiM&feature=player_embedded
independant energy analyst
there is a massive amount of capital in paper oil
speculators are about to spike this buble
pricing mechanism is disfuntional
price manipulated
managed decline or literally collapse
before the end of the second quarter of this yearI was listening to Max Keiser and these are quotes for Chris Cook
Soaring Oil price & weakening US economy-On the Edge with Max Keiser-03-23-2012
independant energy analyst
there is a massive amount of capital in paper oil
speculators are about to spike this buble
pricing mechanism is disfuntional
price manipulated
managed decline or literally collapse
before the end of the second quarter of this yearJack,
That’s (major price decline in next 120 days) been the claim from the same crew since early 2010. It’s really time to revisit the analysis rather than just saying the same thing over and over.
Also, while I don’t doubt the price of paper oil can be manipulated, I question whether it could be jacked up for this long if there was physical supply available. The Arabs might go along, but Venezuela, Iran, Mexico, Ecuador, Colombia, UK…The list of countries is long, of cargoes, short. Even Russia appears to be pumping flat out.
From reading the Staniford post, “all liquids” production is definitely rising, while Crude + Condensate is not.
We all know that barrels of oil are not created equal from the EREOI perspective. We don’t have a chart for it, but I believe that Peak Cheap Oil is here now.
Oops, I should probably wait for your article to start commenting!
Jittery signals down your spine from the gold bugs. Sorry to give you the jitters Ilargi, we are only trying to practice what you preach. Moving in with the Intuit just isn’t a solution for many of us, and doesn’t seem like a wise idea from the latest AE posting. Why you berate the people who are trying in some fashion to hide from the credit horrors you describe so well is bewildering. Perhaps if you parted with some of your fiat tissue paper and purchased some of the shiny yellow you might be able to relax when the gold bugs are chanting credit collapse, currency controls, phoney government statistics, hyperinflation, bank closings, peak oil etc, the entire litany of cacaphonous sounds. Who knows,you might even get bitten by the gold bug.
Oil production has not been able to catch up with demand, which is why other sources of energy, including biofuels, has been used:
https://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/06/oil-production-and-consumption
and in terms of biofuels likely contributing to higher food prices.
Thus, what should not be happening in our lifetimes took place five years ago. And if you consider per capita oil production, that likely peaked in 1979:
https://www.jayhanson.us/page224.htm
Meanwhile, world oil demand is still going up:
https://omrpublic.iea.org/world/wb_wodem.pdf
probably with demand destruction in OECD countries now being offset by oil demand for necessities in non-OECD countries.
Given that, it is possible that demand destruction and more economic problems will affect OECD countries, with large amounts of money supply vaporizing, but smaller quantities of money either injected into BRIC and emerging markets or from forex reserves will be used to buy resources (including oil) for necessities.
Given that, we face a combination of a credit crunch and a resource crunch.
And then there’s climate change….
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