February 24, 2012 at 2:08 pm #939
[article]171[/article]February 24, 2012 at 5:48 pm #940
I recommend also ZH article on oil prices development:
“Needless to say, an epic deflationary shock will need to follow immediately, just as in 2008, which means that, in keeping with the tradition of being 6-9 months ahead of the market, our question today is – which bank will be 2012’s sacrificial Lehman to set off the latest and greatest deflationary collapse and send crude plunging to $30 just after it hits $200.”
— now, that IS shocking…February 24, 2012 at 10:09 pm #941
Looks like TAE has been sub-let to Ashvin while Illargi & Stoneleigh globe-trot.
Much more exciting to travel (even if on a budget) speaking to a handful of adoring converts, than to slog away at home on the net and reach, potentially, millions.
In a different context I did it myself: discovered that rather than running a boring old business from my home base, I could travel the world, attend seminars, trade fairs and have fun! And all a legit tax write-off! Super!
Of course, the business, under ‘management’ soon went down hill.
Same happening to TAE, imo.February 24, 2012 at 11:13 pm #944
I’m sorry Ian101 but I think your comments are unfair. 🙁
An educational speaking tour such as the one Illargi and Stoneleigh are on -rather than being ‘much more exciting… than to slog away at home’ – can be an exhausting and boring road trip at times as well as uplifting and fulfilling – and all the while hoping that you’re making a difference in people’s lives that will translate into wider action.
A new day, another town, a new group of people to engage with no matter how tired one might feel and often having to smile and make small talk – it’s not always easy.
Plus being away from family and friends and always trying to keep each talk fresh (no matter how many times it’s been delivered with variations) and answer the same questions over and over, as if for the first time.
It would be almost impossible for them to find the time to write and post to TAE as well.
Someone has to mind the shop and I think that Ashvin is doing a very thorough job, posting pretty much every day. If you write yourself, you’ll know how time consuming that is – so let’s not make it thankless, as well.
As you say, your experience is in a different context but it’s drawing a long bow to equate TAE with being a ‘boring old business’ such as the one you ran and sadly lost – we’re all trying to do our bit to help make the world a better place.
So encouragement’s the way to go, I feel…February 24, 2012 at 11:22 pm #945
I have been reading automatice earth for several years. Almost since its beginning. In response to Ian, I think you are being a little to hard on the hosts. Ashvin has added a great deal to the insights of Illargi and Stoneleigh. The new format will hopefully allow other, new voices, to add their work on these important issues.
jtFebruary 25, 2012 at 1:22 am #950
Sounds good…but analytically speaking, the frequency of comments has taken a Wylie Coyote nosedive here. Really, this should be very obvious to anyone but the extremely reality impaired. Why? Not sure. But I work in “analytic” software and I’ll just say it was an untested and dramatic “transition”.February 25, 2012 at 1:34 am #951
Having recently attended both a dvd presentation night and listened to Stoneleigh (Nicole) speak in Victoria, Australia, I was favourably impressed with her strong message delivered in a simple, factual manner.
If she hadn’t come personally I’d probably never have found this website as finance/environment are peripheral interests.
Touring takes real commitment (as Beguine comments above)….No matter how much I love skyping and the like, personal interaction builds fundamental trust which is so important in an increasingly technological-reliant time.
May I thank Nicole for her efforts and I’m looking forward to learning and acting on this knowledge. Already I listen to the ‘news’ with better understanding of what is/is not being told. Thank you,February 25, 2012 at 3:19 am #956
“It doesn’t happen very often, but this week one of the two banks closed by the FDIC failed to find a buyer. Such failures have been rare events to date as the regulator resolves troubled institutions. The preferred strategy is to sell the failing bank to a stronger acquiring institution, close it at the end of the day on Friday and re-open the bank as part of the new owner on Monday. For unlucky FDIC Certificate Holder 29178 Home Savings of America on 35 East Broadway in Little Falls, Minnesota, that scenario was not to be. The $440M asset bank tumbled on capital adequacy in September 2011. A forensic report by IRA on the bank can be seen here:”February 25, 2012 at 3:21 am #957
Keep on sl;ugging, Ashvin, you’re doing a fine job!February 25, 2012 at 3:54 am #959
Analytical, you mean something like this;
In the past half a week there have been approximately 75 comments, about half of what the board would have managed on the old blogger site,
430 comments since the site opened 3 weeks ago, also about one half of the old sites commentariat response.
Considering that we are now free of the frequentl drive by attacks of trolls, noting that a couple of frequent posters such as p01 and IMNobody threw up there hands and quit whilst the site was still on blogger, also noting that the rate of comments is slowly picking up.
Well, I woulnd’t call that a nosedive, not analytically anyway.
As to Ian101’s comment, it was negative, almost spitefull, and somewhat reminiscent of Cheryl, hardly community building. A tonality that should be muted as noise by moderators. I&S have been hard at it for 4 years, just maybe thet deserve a holiday anyway. It is great that they have a trusty co-worker like Ash to keep the ball in play.
My wife and I hope to catch Stoneleigh’s talk later this week, it will be great to see and hear her talk coz I love work, I can sit and watch it all day.February 25, 2012 at 5:39 am #963
After watching the video a snarky comment from ZH came to mind. The comment was about the Greek economy and how many olives can a person eat. I am now wondering if Greece is in fact the canery in the coalmine. An economy based on growing things will not maintain the lifestyle provided by the industrial fossil fuel dependent age. It certainly won’t produce enough to repay billions of debt. That’s a lot of olives:)
The demand for growth from Greece will not be met unless Greece gets and uses mega amounts of energy.Is that likely? Not doable in my view and increasingly less doable everywhere else. So how do we get the politicians off the growth mantra?
This dilemma also explains the draconian cuts and the oppressive new legislations in western societies.
Against this backdrop the ” energy ” put into campaigning for democracy seems naive at best in the face of starvation. Oh dear, not very politically correct thinking… Our eye may be on the wrong ball.February 25, 2012 at 11:41 am #964
Quote from Ashvin “the following animated video from the Post Carbon Institute is an invaluable resource”
I’m confident that Post Carbon Institute posted this video on their site, but it wasn’t from them – they just linked to it.
This wonderful animated video was made by Dermot O’Connor of Incubate Pictures for the express purpose of educating people about Peak Oil. Dermot is a member of https://www.hubberts-arms.org/index.php where he is a moderator.
Just wanted to ensure credit went where credit was due.February 25, 2012 at 2:26 pm #965
Aussie post=562 wrote: Just wanted to ensure credit went where credit was due.
Thanks, fixed.February 25, 2012 at 3:56 pm #968
“about one half of the old sites commentariat response”
Maybe it’s just me, but when I look at a chart that shows a 50% decrease in anything, it usually gets my attention.
“Considering that we are now free of the frequentl drive by attacks of trolls, noting that a couple of frequent posters such as p01 and IMNobody threw up there hands and quit whilst the site was still on blogger”
The trolls attacks were usually “removed” fropm the comments…and as far as P01 & IMN go, people quit blogs all the time – why would TAE be any different?February 25, 2012 at 5:26 pm #970
So Joe and Ian,
What is it that you want? What is the point of your comments? Stoneleigh and Illargi are doing what they can. Ashvin is doing what he can. What is your contribution? If you are writing blogs post them. Are you upset because you weren’t invited to create the transition? Change is difficult. Practice dealing with changes you don’t like. The one thing a financial crisis and peak oil can guarantee is that we will see changes we don’t like. What we can not know is what exactly they will be and when they will occur.February 25, 2012 at 5:58 pm #971
“What is it that you want? What is the point of your comments?”
Does somebody always have to “want” something? I was simply making an observation with my comments.February 25, 2012 at 9:29 pm #979
Personally, I am LOVING ash’s writing and would be worse without it. I spoke with Stoneleigh while she was on tour and she is personally blown away by Ash’s work and insight so if it’s good enough for her – it’s good enough for me.February 25, 2012 at 9:40 pm #981
I too am very pleased and impressed by Ash’s articles here. Hats off to him.
Keep up the great work, Ash !!!February 26, 2012 at 2:35 am #990
TAE has now logged 125 comments in the last half week, so we are nearly back up to full speed. 🙂
The “Official Open Comment Thread” seems to have helped.February 26, 2012 at 3:03 am #991
I agree. I think the Official Open Comments has made a difference…for the better.February 26, 2012 at 6:52 am #994
I am quickly getting to enjoy the new site and some of the “oldies but goodies” like el gal and greenpa are showing up with no loss of bite. I do find some of the comments churlish and unfair. So let me add my vote of confidence in Ash–by their works ye shall know them–and I & S are doing what rock stars on tour do for their music: spreading it around. I don’t think they’re getting much in the way of all night parties and groupies though.February 26, 2012 at 8:41 pm #1006
I really liked the video except for inference that the suburbs will suffer more than the cities. At least the suburbs has some arable land. What exactly will all of the city dwellers, who earn their living double clicking on a mouse do for a living once we revert to a farming society?February 27, 2012 at 4:33 am #1030
Was this thread about financials and peak oil?
The basic premise that financial problems are closer than peak oil seems more apparent because that’s what all the news is about. Further, there has been no shortages in the US. Yes, higher prices but the filling station tanks are still full.
A ‘not thought about’ consideration is found in the modern oil well. A vertical well (or a field of vertical wells) has a rather linear decline rate however a horizontal well will produce very well until the water level reaches the perforations in the well pipe, then the production declines very rapidly. This is a typical topic and well understood at “The Oil Drum”. Given that most modern wells are of the horizontal configuration we are not seeing the decline from the 2005 peak accurately. Of course there are additional reasons (methanol, shale gas, etc) that it appears as a plateau. In a real sense, the production curve for crude is more like a shark’s fin rather than a bell curve that has been common (mis)knowledge since the ’70s. After the inflection point of the sharks fin world production, it will become obvious in just a couple years that civilization is in trouble.
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