huckleberryfinn
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Ken Barrows:
“Huck,
Back from the holiday, I see. Here’s the trend (whether it includes shadow banking, I don’t know) for the USA. I don’t think it’s better, actually maybe worse, in quite a number of other countries.https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO
I don’t expect a response but at least you can see it.”
You did not just throw that extremely inane derivatives argument at me did ya?
Seriously how retarded are the collective people here.
Derivatives totals represent the underlying. So they are notional. No person on the planet will ever lose that much money. 98% of it are Interest rate linked and 95% of that is under 2 years maturity.
Even if I had your IQ and actually got scared looking at those “Liabilities”, then you need to understand that all those “liabilities” are also someone else’s “Assets”. So if you count them on one side count them on the other.What you should focus is Net exposure, that takes into account potential losses after Margin requirements already put up are exhausted. That is around 12 Trillion dollars. Yes 12 Trillion in a world with Net assets (assets minus debts) exceeding 1 Quadrillion dollars. We are so fucking doomed.
“toearn something about statistic”. I am guessing you like the two douchebags who run this place dont have any concrete evidence to refute anything I say. If you want a public raping of your pitifully evolved thought process let me know otherwise shut the hell up instead giving platitudes.
That exceeded the normal incoherence that these two idiots show in their writing. Kudos.
I honestly had no clue why your conversation went political or what the fuck any of it meant.The ratio is not fantasy. I challenge you to show otherwise.
In fact when Nicole came on Keiser show all red face “aboot our impending doom” in 2010 about Canadian debt, that ratio for Canadians was 0.20.
https://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-008-x/2011001/c-g/11430/c-g003-eng.htm
You know you are right when the collective garbage that writes on this blog cannot come up with one factual counter argument for total assets and total debt.Raul are you and your crazy sidekick still searching for an answer as to why we will have a depression when world Debt to Asset ratio is 0.16? About 200 Trillion in Debt with over 1.2 Quadrillion in assets. Now 7 years since you guys have got anything remotely right. Yes you had your 3 months in 2008 and you seem to have oil prices falling from much higher levels but other than that. Jim Cramer’s “Bear Stearns is fine!!!” call is better than what you guys predicted. After all Bear Stearns did not not go to zero. Just wondering how many more years until you guys finally admit that you are the most clueless bunch on the planet with no ability to crunch basic numbers. Thanks in advance,
You are correct. Because they listen to bullshit spewed by RIM. When we have never had deflation of any magnitude in a fiat system.
Because when World assets are over 1.4 Quadrillion and world Debt is 230 Trillion only a retard like RIM would say deflation is inevitable.
Like his stupid sidekick’s Canadian Real estate will go down 90% call in 2010. How’s that working for you Nicole?Zerohedge???????????? You are really quoting zerohedge? Those fucks could not get anything right ever. Every piece of news, good or bad, is always bad. Read how many optimistic posts they had since 2009. High oil prices…..bad……low oil prices….bad….medium oil prices/….really really bad. GDP up bad …fed will hike. GDP down…..is this all the Fed could achieve. I think Nicole Foss, RIM and those writers of of zerohedge should just stop writing.
US GDP at 5% annualized in the 3rd quarter but it is going to be a collapse!!!!!!!!!!!!
How do you wake every morning, knowing that world assets are more than 5 times world debt and continue to spew this complete bullshit?And about your nonsensical link to Oil prices killing Canada.
First $2 Natural gas which is $12 oil did not kill any banks so you think $50 oil will?
Second, falling oil prices actually boost Canada’s economy as a whole.
Don’t believe me? Well here you go,
https://static5.businessinsider.com/image/5463d7e7eab8eafb2f2221d9-1200-900/cotd-oil-impact-gdp.jpg
Third a lot of the producers hedged 30-50% of their 2015 production but did not hedge their currency exposure. So they are getting $95 US which is 95 X 1.15 USD/CAD so a total of $109 Canadian. But dont let your biases stop you from actually investigating what is happening.We should be close to a bottom in oil. In 3 months to 6 months this thing will turn up and leave these prices behind and with it all of RIM’s dreams of deflation. I am sure 3 years down the line when oil declines again he will write another stunning piece “Who is ready for $70 oil” , when $70 will be the new $30 just like in 2009 $10 was where oil was supposed to go to. Of course being wrong for another 5 years will not prevent him for continuing to spew his timeless wisdom.
“Huckleberry, what happens to these debt-to-asset ratios when real estate values collapse? How is the demand for a company’s products related to the debt levels of the would-be customers? What happens to “most single companies” when their market dries up (regardless of their debt-to-equity ratios)? What’s the effect on a company’s debt-to-equity ratio (and the effect on the economy) when corporate assets, like production facilities, are suddenly non-productive? In your opinion, what’s the range of debt-to-equity ratios in which companies will “get into trouble” (when real market values are considered), during prolonged periods of no growth?”
That is an amazing question. First, my apples were given as a corollary to the oranges. Yes they are different but both methods reached almost the same number.
Now you can go back to RIM and Nicole Foss’s BS for the last 7 years and see if they have even pointed out this ratio. All they have done is point out how ludicrously high the debt is, which it is not. In fact if we were not talking about Peak oil/climate change/environmental damage, everyone with one single neuron left would disregard every ounce of bullshit spewed on this blog. But these two do have a second bogeyman. So when “debt is disaster” fails it will be “we do not have enough energy to pay back the debt.”
I still cannot believe the insanity of these two numbnuts proclaiming that a person with a $300,000 home “cannot” pay back his debt of $60,000 because there is not enough “energy”. Because that is the ratio. A debt to Asset of 0.2.I do not believe that peak oil will be the disaster these morons make it out to be. But it will be tough. No question.I do not have all the answers but I do know this mattress stuffing with dollars because a Debt to asset ratio of 0.2 will produce massive deflation is too stupid to not criticize.
It did not allow me to edit so I am reposting here.
The total Debt in the world depending what all you count in it, is around 200-235 Trillion. This is the basic amount that is used for fear mongering. Comparing it to GDP it looks high. That would show a high Debt to Ebitda ratio if the world were a corporation.
But focusing on income ignores a very important side of the equation.
Which side you ask? I am glad you asked Raul Numbskull Ilargi.
The question is what is the value of the world Equity? I know this may be foreign concept to you so I will elaborate. The world total assets is the sum of the World Equity (not equity like stocks, but equity like residual value after Debt is paid off) + World Debt. So what is the value of world total assets?
That is incredibly hard to figure out as values for a lot of things simply do not exist or are unknown.
But we do know values of a lot of things. For example World Financial assets (stocks, bonds, money market funds, excluding all derivatives) is close to 300 Trillion, and total world Residential and Commercial Real estate is 250 Trillion or so. There are many, many, other assets which are owned by Governments which do produce revenue (for example roads and bridges which are toll taxed) that are not included in this count. Gold and other precious metals are also excluded. The value of all of those would conservatively be 150 Trillion and probably a lot higher. So total assets would be 700 Trillion. Subtracting out the Debt gives you between 465 and 500 Trillion as world Equity. For a Debt to equity ratio of around 0.4 to -0.5. Now most single companies have rarely gotten into trouble until Debt to equity exceeds 4. So at 1/10th those levels only a retard like you could think that. That is why you and Nicole Foss have repeatedly missed the big picture and got everything wrong. And every now and then when after years of fear mongering something remotely goes your way you have orgasmic debt rattles. Actually I have left out the Net value of all private corps. That data is not easily available but most people believe it is between 1X-2X public corps. So between 300 Trillion to 600 Trillion.
That Means your total world assets are 1.0 to.1.3 Quadrillion giving a debt to equity ratio of around 0.2 to 0.15.
You think these numbers are made up?
How about this? This is actually Statistics Canada’s graph.
https://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-008-x/2011001/c-g/11430/c-g003-eng.htm
Showing Canada’s debt to Assets of 0.2! That would imply a Debt to Equity of 0.25! So fucking scary. That chart actually says that it is at the highest level in 35 years and it is still so incredibly low. I actually pointed this out to you in early 2009 as to the reason stocks would rise big time and you made fun of me. Sorry for being like you.
And BTW the average Return on Assets by companies is around 6-8%. So 1000 trillion producing a world GDP (income of 60-70 Trillion would make perfect sense).Huck – “The lady doth protest too much, methinks.” Either a paid shill (and there are many out there) or someone who is trying desperately to convince himself more than others (been there).
a PAID SHILL to discredit a doomer website like this?
There is too much of an IQ gap to continue this conversation. Good bye.I know where I stand intellectually and I measure that by what I have accomplished and it is many magnitudes higher than RIM and Stoneleigh.
There are about 30-40 papers on Lithium Supply and I have read most of them. The consensus by scientists is that there is adequate lithium for mid level penetration (20-40%) of electric vehicles with current technology. The price of lithium in a car battery is around $100-$200. So if Lithium rises 10 fold you will see Ocean lithium mining become feasible and possible way before that. I know this will be pooh-poohed by the dumbfucks here but hey none of them saw the 5 Million barrel of oil a day increase that came out of higher prices and were predicting calamity for a whole decade.“The value of an asset, of course, is dependent on the ability to acquire more debt somewhere in the system.” I have no clue how you reach that conclusion when I just showed you above that the world as a whole is hardly indebted.
So no deflationary crash happening as Asset values far exceed debt. Sure there will be buying opportunities along the way as things get out of whack. We are getting one right now for Canadian oil and gas producers.
” It is also true that the value of these assets, e.g. buildings, are dependent on a supply of relatively cheap oil, gas, and electricity. If that ends, values will change rapidly.”
No it will not. We have enough Lithium to produce an electric car for everyone on the planet, now whether we have enough to cure RIM’s mental state is a different question.Since you will not answer my question RIM, here is a synopsis for your readers.
The total Debt in the world depending what all you count in it, is around 200-235 Trillion. This is the basic amount that is used for fear mongering. Comparing it to GDP it looks high. That would show a high Debt to Ebiitda ratio if the world were a corporation.
But focusing on income ignores a very important side of the equation.
Which side you ask? I am glad you asked Raul Numbskull Ilargi.
The question is what is the value of the world Equity? I know this may be foreign concept to you so I will elaborate. The world total assets is the sum of the World Equity (not equity like stocks, but equity like residual value after Debt is paid off) + World Debt. So what is the value of world total assets?
That is incredibly hard to figure out as values for a lot of things simply do not exist or are unknown.
But we do know values of a lot of things. For example World Financial assets (stocks, bonds, money market funds, excluding all derivatives so keep your panties unbunched) is close to 300 Trillion, and total world Residential and Commercial Real estate is 250 Trillion or so. There are many, many, other assets which are owned by Governments which do produce revenue (for example roads and bridges which are toll taxed) that are not included in this count. Gold and other precious metals are also excluded. The value of all of those would conservatively be 150 Trillion and probably a lot higher. So total assets would be 700 Trillion. Subtracting out the Debt gives you between 465 and 500 Trillion as world Equity. For a Debt to equity ratio of around 0.4 to -.05. Now most single companies have rarely gotten into trouble until Debt to equity exceeds 4. So at 1/10th those levels only a retard like you could think that. That is why you and Nicole Foss have repeatedly missed the big picture and got everything wrong. And every now and then when after years of fear mongering something remotely goes your way you have orgasmic debt rattles.
You think these numbers are made up?
How about this? This is actually Statistics Canada’s graph.
https://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-008-x/2011001/c-g/11430/c-g003-eng.htm
Showing Canada’s debt to Assets of 0.2! That would imply a Debt to Equity of 0.25! So fucking scary. That chart actually says that it is at the highest level in 35 years and it is still so incredibly low. I actually pointed this out to you in early 2009 as to the reason stocks would rise big time and you made fun of me. Sorry for being like you.
And BTW the average Return on Assets by companies is around 6-8%. So 700 trillion producing a world GDP (income of 60-70 Trillion would make perfect sense).
I am done with you although I am going periodically repost this so more people can see what a bunch of losers you both are.“This ain’t Jeopardy. Why not just make your point?”
Do you know why RIM has not answered yet? Because he knows I am about to fuck his stupid ideas.I asked one question douchebag and I was going to ask two more after that.
“I dont know where you get your blog ratings, is it doomerporn.com, or bastardizationoffinance.org?” was a sarcastic question or maybe sarcasm is lost to people who equate everything to an asteroid strike on earth.
“Take a look at all of the highly rated financial blogs and you will discover that virtually ALL of them accept donations. Virtually ALL of them. Let that sink in.”
I dont know where you get your blog ratings, is it doomerporn.com, or bastardizationoffinance.org?
Here I will prove your bullshit is just that.
What is the total global debt, the one your batshit crazy apes harp about?This is from the previous post. Maybe you or Nicole Foss can answer this. So simple three questions. You answer them, I will give you my response and I will leave forever. Hopefully in the process a minority of your blog members will see how clueless you are.
“Take a look at all of the highly rated financial blogs and you will discover that virtually ALL of them accept donations. Virtually ALL of them. Let that sink in.”
I dont know where you get your blog ratings, is it doomerporn.com, or bastardizationoffinance.org?
Here I will prove your bullshit is just that.
What is the total global debt, the one your batshit crazy apes harp about?“@Huckleberryfinn: Something is eating you, amigo, eating you from inside.
You will know no peace as long as you keep pointing the finger at others.
Peace, Brother.”
That is riot coming from a blog that spends its entire time criticizing everything and everyone except those that believe we are all eventually completely doomed and begs for donations while at it. Yes out of Illargi and I, I am the one that is more despondent and “spends time pointing fingers”.
Kudos on having a firm grasp of reality.“Because the past 10, 20 or even 40 years have not actually delivered any growth, once you look beyond the propaganda, and the added debt. ”
Yes we are identical to where we were 40 years back. Absolutely zero growth. GDP is the same, advancement of health care, technology, is all the same. You know, I can recommend a good psychiatrist friend of mine. He can hook you up with some strong anti-depressants for whatever ails your brain to make such stupid statements.Oh I was not ignoring you. Some of us actually make a real living by working 8 hours a day instead of looking for handouts on the web. Yeah it is a novel concept but think about it.
Now for your prediction of the Canadian Housing Market crash. 90% is annihilation, and no you idiot that is not going to happen. Can it go down 20-30%? Sure. Can Vancouver and Toronto do worse? Sure. A 40% inflation adjusted decline is probably the worst you will see and that will bring things about 10% lower than when your brainless friend made that awesome sound bite. So If we go down by 10% over 10 years after your prediction you have accomplished what exactly? And in most cases the rent savings and net equity buildup, outside of the 2 most bubblicious cities will save people money.
Telling people to hold on to their dollars and practice archaic skills for post doom world is the most dangerous thing in finance. As far as my insolence please have a nice look in the mirror first. I have experience your arrogance on TOD and what goes around comes around.“Huckleberryfinn, you have no manners. If you want to come on the board and debate, fine. If you want to strongly disagree with TAE, great. Just stick to the issues and avoid the ad hominem attacks. If you need to study a template for how to disagree, even strongly, without unnecessarily insulting the host, check out alan2102′s post in the Elephant post. I welcome a robust discussion, but attitudes like yours we can all do without. Cheers.”
Actually Raul and Nicole are way more dangerous than me. Their lack of understanding of how finance works is going to destroy way more lives than anyone else.
The prediction was for the entire market and not only Vancouver. Are there example of homes in cities that will go down 90%? Sure. Does not make that cartoon right. And timing believe it or not counts. Long after she and all the idiots that follow her are dead, if prices decline from much higher, does that make her right?
She has completed bastardized basic economics and does not understand how simple math works. I remember Raul on oil drum acting like a complete douche when oil hit $35 and many suggested it was going higher and he went on and on about how many countries were having their public transport system cut. 6 years later and many apocalypses postponed he is out saying Deflation is here because prices are now double of 2009 (where he predicted they would go lower) but have fallen from triple 2009 levels. If he had any semblance of sense he would not spend his time begging for money.Hahahaha…you out in full force again. All those years of remorseless mistakes now once again punctuated with 3 months of “Deflation”.
Just wanted to know when this is going to happen.
https://www.businessinsider.com/canadian-housing-bubble-2010-12
Is it 90% from here or 90% from 2010 levels and will absolutely anyone who reads your crap ever be alive to witness it?“Ha – the irony of that statement is that if this actually occurs then you might not be able to afford the $1000 donation any more!”
Don’t worry. Not everyone begs for donations for a living.
I will save it in physical cash.
And I am sure this website will be running on solar powered generators.Really awesome comment as the prices were rallying out of the bottom.
Of course being wrong for a decade punctuated with a brief 6 months of glory has not stopped you. So party on. If you get $50 average oil price for 6 months I will donate a $1,000 to your site.This is too funny.
Now will this happen before or after the 90% collapse in Canadian Real estate which was set to happen in 2010.
https://www.businessinsider.com/canadian-housing-bubble-2010-12
