Professorlocknload
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Skip,
Good point.I think which insurers get bailed will depend on “who” holds their annuities in their retirement portfolios. That’s been the trend.
For everyone else, guess it’s just print up Sandy Bonds and sell ’em to the Fed. It has unlimited resources. The man said he will never run out of money as long as he has Ctrl p on his keyboard.
Meanwhile, where did I hear we have the biggest bond bubble in 200 odd years? Ah, no one cares. Back to Jack K and Dean M.
p01, amusement,
When the K lamp comes out, the books do too. Real paper ones. Brette Harte and pal Mark. If I were in NY right now, maybe “Roughing It”, would be on tap. Or maybe Mc Carthy’s little road trip. Or Kerouac and Dean Moriarty tearing down Rt 66, or Jack stranded in Mexico City, monkey on back, no money, no hope.
Like life on “Ron’s” property in the hills, back when I was flat broke and free, living in 90 square feet. Where I first learned about the lamp and foil. Never had so much time to read, as then. My wealth was in 5 gallon buckets.
Wash the dishes, wash the socks, take warm shower if I remembered to put the bucket in the truck in the sun, porta potti if it was raining out, pack water. No cell service, no internet, no utilities, no bull shit.
And before, at Georges place, when the flood hit, in 98, I simply jacked the old trailer up on pallets, and borrowed a canoe till the water went down. Muddy waterline was evident on the wheels for years after that.
Oh, and don’t forget HDT’s Walden.
Great One, there, Nicole! Worked with some Mormons 30 years ago that convinced me, using your argument, being less of a burden on others, meant being able to assist them better. So, we put away stores from that point forward. More than once, it fed us between jobs,. Here in Cally, Earthquake Preparedness info is everywhere, always. Tethered gas wrenches to bleach!
Jal, basic list,
Right on. I have lived off grid in a cheap used travel trailer, in the disasters of construction recessions before (and natural ones). I learned more from those experiences than all the book learning in the library, on matters of “survival”. Learned to Okie rig most everything needed to get by.
Around here, we have no bully pulpit, consisting of millions of squeaky wheels with which to garner media attention, therefore FEMA political posturing. No, when shit strikes, we’re on our own. Matter of fact, Sacramento and Eugene don’t even know Southern Oregon and Northern California exist.
We here, can pretty much make it OK without all the “amenities” people think they need. It was interesting sometime back, to see young folks actually engaging in verbal conversation down at the coffee, when the fiber optic cable that carries all communication and internet traffic was burnt in a wild fire. All credit/debit card transactions, ATM etc, ceased. Tourists, passing through without cash, were mortified when even motels and restaurants wouldn’t accept cards, let alone gas stations. And we are a good part of a tank away from where they came, so they were stuck.
The “Man from Glad” fixes us up for rain gear and hot showers, Alcoa lines us up for solar cooking and reflectors behind Granpa’s old kerosine lamp. Cheap inverter on the pickup keeps us in lights, so we can see to clean up the Quake mess. (made a wire harness out of an old cord with which I can have the entire house lighted in minutes after power goes out.) Because of uncertainty in these parts, we don’t let fuel run much below 3/4 tank. I bike more than drive anyway.
I would recommend taking a trek into the deep woods or out into the central Nevada desert sometime, for a couple weeks or a month or so, loading everything you think you will need in the car, and see what happens. Go once in January and once in August, just for variance. Don’t have a car? Rent one, it’s worth it.
We like go a couple times a year. After that, you’ll have it pretty much figured out. Especially the priorities. And it is much easier to put all that in a 500 sq foot condo, then a Honda Civic!
This from Mish…
https://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/11/prepare-for-demise-of-california.html
Sure, the Fed is going to let the worlds 8th largest economy fail. TWICE the size of Holland! With huge agricultural output. The high tech mecca of the globe. Gigantic defense contractor. Major shipping ports. Big lumber and wood exporter. 12% of national GDP.
Maybe it should be the other way around. By the logic of peripheries and cores, maybe California should leave the union and let the US fail. Or at least, divide this mess at the Mississippi and let the East eat it’s paper products.
This is all getting absurd.
John,
Thanks for that. I considered the areas out around Aztec and Farmington, NM, but too cold up there. Southwest AZ fit the bill. Sunny and warm winters. Nice contrast from WET and grey Northwest winters.
Actually, warmer winters down there, than our summers up here. The utility savings cover the expenses. Small, older places at both ends, we don’t need much.
John
Re Southwest,
Don’t see any evidence of the great global warming, carbon tax, credit derivatives hype down there yet. Neither do the old boy locals I talk to. Of course, mention crop damage subsidies, and it’s Armageddon 😉 Out come the discs!
But an awful lot was just spent on the New All American canal project down there to think it’s all for naught. The water still flows to the fields. Oh, and the golf courses, parks and road medians.
I need a little more solid proof before I put money in popular political movements.
Not selling blog ads, books, advice and such. Besides, Paul Ehrlich had us all dead back in 68, only in an ice age then.
On energy prices, I see rises through taxation, inflation and demand, depending on how severe this economic rout gets. Might just be, with Europe shut down, and China slowing, we could see a bit of conservation soon.
Lot of new grid work going on down south, to support the solar and wind farms, and in Nevada, the geothermal.
No need for heat down there, and a solar powered swamp cooler isn’t that expensive. More comfortable than AC anyway, in that arid climate.
John,
Petraeus thing, power corrupting absolutely, who knows what that was about. Sure happy I don’t have to associate with all those psycho’s.
On the move to Hawaii, change is always an adventure. As life should be.
I’ve invested a bit in Southern Arizona, as I figure rising energy prices, along with a big fat carbon tax (to fund Obama Care, Afghanistan?) will most likely uproot millions of Northern snow people over the next decade. Whether they like it or not.
Sure won’t leave many remaining to support the massive governments up there. Kinda like the HOA dues on a high rise condo, when there are only a couple occupants?
I see Detroit as the future of the northeast.
Ilargi,
Perhaps of interest, per your expertise. Series of random storms, or conspiracy? Not sure. What’s your take? If you have time, if not, I get it.
https://www.thedailybell.com/28272/EUs-Plight-Sadism-or-a-Cold-Blooded-Takedown
Pritchard is, well, Pritchard.
Interesting numbers on the oil drum site.
I think if I lived in a location that is energy intensive, ie heating, cooling and commuting, I’d be looking to relocate to milder climes, closer to services.
Might just be some demographic shifts to the South and West over the next decade or two.
Couple folks get together to discuss Liberty…
Ilargi,
So, the loss of purchasing power will be only through cuts in government spending? Austerity? Real belt tightening? Or will additional devaluation, the historical solution to these things, also contribute? Stealth taxation through inflation, after casting the Euro fiat to the wind and doing their own thing, industrious Germans right on their tail?
To me a loss of purchasing power can be brought about in either scenario, or both. Even direct taxation. Knowing the outcome, but not the specifics of the plan makes this difficult to “act” on, maybe?
Certainly, austerity is in order, to bring standards of living back to sustainable levels, but is it really going to pass political muster? Like, the Dutch discovered statesmanship suddenly, in lieu of weasel opportunist politics?
If so, and a return to living within it’s means comes to Holland, would a book maker be best served investing there, than say, in Spain, where future collapse seems more favorable to it’s near sighted public than frugality?
But then, Nancy Pelosi did say O Care had to be passed to know what’s in it. So, it was. Still don’t know what the outcome will be, on the 5 year plan and all.
Eagerly awaiting ratification of my State into the Union…
Not to worry, U of M sentiment index is at a 5 year high, oil green, stocks green, 10 year T green, gold green, dollar green. Everything affected by plentiful money creation is green. Even the cash, which can’t know scarcity, green. Soon the Fed is expected to release their millions of square feet of warehoused new $100 bills, though I presume they are awaiting a “Bank Run Lite” to announce the event through a bazooka. Most likely a new $500 bill will be next project up, along with elimination of metallic junk like zinc clad coins, since they cost more to make than a C-Note.
‘Round town here, new cars everywhere, restaurants full, traffic heavier than ever, even at $4.20 a gallon. Per capita incomes rising (this place is 60% government). As in tri county core.
The Savior is anointed, we are spared! Soon, the long awaited redistribution of what wealth remains will be completed, and all in the Union/Corporate/Government/Financial Quartet will be compensated for their campaign generosity, and hopefully, as per plan, may begin to “Trickle Down” a few crumbs to the rest of us.
O Care taxes will soon rid those pesky small operators of their working capital, as a so called pinched middle class is stressed into joining the ranks of those on the dole, to profit from the largess of low income assistance measures put in place to expedite the elimination of everything “not connected,” so the Long March to progress may proceed.
We are spared. Get out there and buy those chevy volts, and hot up the grid! Good for the Public Utility Monopolies! Got Schnieder stock? They make circuit breakers.
Yup, the free shit army. That’s everyone lined up at the public redistribution trough, from free iPhone takers to Goldman Sachs.
Seems now, there are more takers than givers, so the reckoning can’t be too far off. The books will ultimately balance, if these psychopaths in power don’t open up the final nuclear frontier to distract attention from their insanity.
Certainly, the spectacle we just witnessed in this election cycle should stir the survival instinct. We really are on our own now.
stoleleigh,
One day does not a market make. Let’s see what this looks like in a couple weeks. Stocks can be fair inflation hedges, especially in a zero interest rate world. Don’t misunderstand, I’m not invested in equities, as I don’t feed HFT robots or Goldman Sachs. I’m just looking at the confidence factor in headline indices numbers.
The new boss here, same as the old, had every opportunity these last four years to use the Bully Pulpit to explain to the nation, and world, that we cannot go on living beyond our means, let alone by orders of magnitude. Instead, he maintained, nay, increased government spending and debt, as a solution to excessive debt spending.
Selling junk car loans and even more sub prime loans for his banking owners. Putting half the nation on an unsustainable dole, or even into more unserviceable debt is not a panacea, it’s can kicking, as in bread and circuses.This has been no way to run a railroad.
The man, like those several ones before him, as well as his opponent, is an empty suit. His first term was a disaster, his second will be a washout. This is all much bigger than an arrogant community organizer or an egoistical hostile takeover operator. Statesmanship is required here, and we are fresh out of that.
First question is, do we default now, preserving some semblance of confidence in the only currency we have, or do we go all in, piling debt to the moon, until gravity brings it back to terra firma, taking the Funny Buck with it. We now have the answer. Leading to the next query, is this bigger than electronic data entry capability, before the end is reached?
Hugh also said in that Buttonwood gathering, para ‘God is dead, we are really on our own.’ My take, “God” as metaphor for the Nanny State.
My question isn’t only what Obama can do. It’s also what Bernanke and friends now have carte blanche to do, no holds barred.
As Hugh Hendry said, $1 trillion didn’t do it. $4.5 trillion didn’t do it. Some trillion certainly will eventually do it. Hedge accordingly. He is.
Ah, a new President, or a renewed one;
On the exposure of power by truth, Anthony Wiley terms it “The Internet Reformation.” (See his The Daily Bell) Consent, indeed, is the necessary ingredient to successful government control. Slowly, and one by one, folks are questioning authority. Gonna be some hard toothpaste to put back in the tube, now that it’s out.
California’s Governor Moonbeam Brown publicly stated, all politicians are liars, that’s how they get elected. Got to thank him for that. And, really, what does a president do, especially out here in the streets? Never had one roll up his sleeves next to me, grab a shovel and help dig a foundation footing, or help pour 40 yards of concrete.
In Lord Actons terms, power corrupts, absolute power corrupts, absolutely. We could spill things off our keyboards blaming some pol for our shortcomings, or we can, like a trail of ants when a foot is put down in their path, simply go around. Having fought a cadre of authoritarians and their labyrinthine network of regulations, rules and prohibitions most of my small business life, I learned from the ants.
And hopefully, the day will come when big brother becomes entangled in his own web.
Adaptability is key. And innovation. Along with dealing direct, sometimes, leaving the non producing authority middle man out of the loop.
Consent will ultimately make one poor and leashed. Sometimes, we just have to do things that don’t conform, to get the job done. I think some self preserving local governments understand that, and know they must look the other way at times, so the producer can get the project completed, and get his tax remittance in the mail. Don’t ask me why I paid taxes, other than I felt sorry for them, always in fear of losing their jobs, knowing they would never find one in a would where they would have to produce.
But, empire building is their nature, so why encourage them with too much consent?
Something tells me here, when this top heavy behemoth finally inverts, we’re going to be on our own for a spell. Who knows, we might even go back to the days when the government had no money. It all belonged to the people. Back when money was real, and honest, and scarce, it was that way. And it was actually the people who employed the government, not the other way around.
Also, anyone but me see a whole lot of Strauss and Howe Fourth Turning going on here, compounding the bad effects of world public’s and their government’s insatiable quests for the free lunch? Granted, a few of us old codgers knew better, but here we are, in the middle of it. Demographics is going to amplify this rout, I believe.
So, I agree with stoneleigh, in that there will be hell to pay going forward. I just don’t go along with the predictability of it’s course, given knowledge of the most insane gyrations power goes into when threatened with extinction. For sure, with a military might like the present one, government which has escaped it’s reins is a booger bear of a wild card. Maybe I fear less the economic effects of three wire bales of hundred dollar bills falling from the sky, than I do having one land on me…dunno?
Theater of the Absurd. But I guess soggy paper doesn’t blow out the window.
Not to worry. Bloomberg reports the next President will preside over an improving economy. The head winds have become tail winds now. It’s all better. The clouds are gone. Rejoice.
If this Sandy deal isn’t the Swan, is it wise to wait around for one?
And in the End…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fvwp&v=U-m4k6S-rKY&NR=1
Humm, maybe we could also find a better use for food, other than burn it, in caloric form? I mean, fuel is fuel, no? Sure would save a lot of oil. Oh, I forgot, we have the largest oil burning entity on earth, the Department of Defense taking care of these population issues.
Boy’s and Girls, if I were in Europe right now, I wouldn’t be, in a New York Minute!
I wrote half a tome on that this morning. If ya’ll want it, I’ll put it here, if not, it’s sitting in my files awaiting discovery by Janet N. up at DHS.
stoneleigh, for you…
For when every resource on earth is firmly locked down in the REAL core, there in the basement of the Eccles Building on Constitution Ave.
https://fofoa.blogspot.com/2012/10/an-american-horror-story.html
Dave, as I said in an earlier comment that vaporized on hitting the submit button, you have a good point there. So, briefly, again…
But, as Giant begins absorbing the worlds oil supply again, putting Europe on a diet, and throwing a bucket of water on China, along with steam rolling Libya to demonstrate to the remainder of the Middle east the virtues of more US Arms purchases, (Go Boeing!) for oil, of course, the geopolitics are in trend transition as well.
Canada and Mexico must also join the oil for dollars frenzy too. Canada, especially, as it’s non energy resource markets dry up. (Wood? Mining?) And it is also on the edge of something sinister in property markets, in my op.
I look also for a confrontation with Putin, Mr. Gasman, somewhere along an east west border. The fight over Europe’s carcass, as they slash each other up, has begun. Who will end up with the prize of having to defend that mess again for 50 years is anyone’s guess in the end. But Giant has a lot of terrorist tactics in it’s arsenal still.
“In almost every nook and cranny and at every step of the way, in Europe, political chaos looms just around the corner.”
I would be suspicious anymore, if I DIDN’T hear that.
Variable, “Perhaps there are more “low-tech” renewable solutions you would suggest instead?”
Perhaps a dose of Clare Wolfe is in order. Always been fun these past decades. https://www.backwoodshome.com/
Might help find 101 things to do when it’s too soon to shoot the bastards 😉
p01,
Heard somewhere by some credentialed guru, the only thing made any sense to me so far, “The technology to clean up Fukushima does not exist today.”
So, they’re firing up all the other plants.
Rock on.
“It’s wood for the fire, Professor. Keep warm and cook dinner.”
Oh, around here fire wood is to burn on Christmas Eve, woodland/timberland is building material/agriculture. You are talking about wooded acreage as a fuel source. Can’t imagine it competing with coal or natural gas, but I haven’t done the numbers.
Heating with wood is a pretty low EROEI in my experience, what with saw chains, splitters, fuel etc. Unless the mill here is awash in mill ends, and I can get them to load the truck. Besides, every time I put down the felling axe, it stops working.
As for living in the boonies, on acreage, fine if you have a lot of expendable, dependable income (trust? annuity? doubloons?) to maintain that luxury. Or, if it was passed down in the family and you have spent a lot of time growing up on it and learning to work it.
Seems pretty hard on those in between. And my guess is, if the subsidies ever fail, the going is going to be even tougher on the established. (Think California tax dodge vineyards and Iowa corn ethanol credits).
Ever consider putting together some ideas to survive this “predicted” malaise right in your own town? That’s my plan. I can always split if need be. But what if it works out OK? No one is an island. Sure, the well heeled can buy their survival farms, but they need us to maintain them. I would even think, in a vote over who gets cut off first, those 20 or so “compounders” out in east county vs. the towns folk here in the county seat…well.
@variable,
What would be the market for timber or timber land in a world wide economic rout? I see why these local log decks are filling right now for export to Asia (Japan/China), but will these markets still demand wood products in future circumstances? And aren’t there enough houses already in North America?
Always like to read this again when I find myself doubting it’s validity (threat?), or if I at least begin believing otherwise, at the inducement of various bloggers and pundits, for they/we are only bloggers with a few interested listeners, and some google ads. But the man who delivered this speech is at the levers of the entire worlds economic systems. With a Pentagon full of henchmen, just in case there are any dissenters.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm
Age old epitaph over mission soup kitchens, “All Ye Who Fought The Fed, Enter Here.”
The choice, it seems to me, in whether it’s austerity on steroids, solving the problem rapidly, in a mass deleveraging event, instantly undermining political authority, (though it bought FDR three terms) or kicking the can toward the cliff, devaluing until it hits the canyon floor, is the Feds alone.
Of course, in this latter scenario, the kicker goes over the edge with the can, just later, buying time for the rats to feather their nests in their well defended compounds.
Do we really want to fight this cornered Leviathan? I’m set for the next while, either way, but if one is on the fringe and barely making ends meet, sans enough resources to make it at least 3 or 4 years with no income, it might be wise to read this link slowly and intently, seeking it’s hard message.
Especially read the fourth paragraph under the heading “Curing Deflation.”
As Hugh Hendry said at Buttonwood, para, ” $1 Trillion didn’t do it. $4.5 Trillion didn’t do it. But some $Trillion has to, eventually.”
Now, granted, cash is good to hold, in reasonably modest enough amounts to convert to necessities or inflation hedges, but if held in the latter situation, it burns real fast. Also, pretty hard to buy 40 acres of bottom land in Kansas with greenies without some escrow officer generating a 1099. Doesn’t matter that you can prove where it came from. It’s the legal expense of doing so that bites.
Damn, wish something would happen so I could finally stop walking this fence rail! Bonds and Bling, Bling and Bonds…Ghosts and Goblins, Happy Halloween, all.
Got it there, Dave.
I’ve, sometime back, connected Mutual Fund accounts with FDIC bank accounts, and set up self directed IRA’s in SIPC brokerage accounts for misc. paper solids. The GNMA’s and TIP’s have been good these last few years, both .gov backed, but the sweet is about gone there. I mean, where to from zero? Damn, might as well stick it in the Bank of Atlas/Mason at these rates, yes? Especially considering what the “C” in the above “Insurance” institutions stands for!
Pretty much collected everything forward I’m gonna need here these next few 5 or 6 years, so I’ll weather it. Been through worse.
p01,
Ever wonder what the reaction if those headlines should ever read “All Mutual Funds Halt Redemptions Until Further Notice,” meaning until all insiders have cleared their holdings? Or, “Money Market Mutual Funds Break the Buck. Redeemed at 50 cents on the Dollar.” Many don’t know how close to breaking of the buck we were in 09.
Not to scare the horses here, but, the more I research this stuff, well,
putting new line on the reels and sharpening the hooks! Might have to do a Sweeny Todd and open a barber shop, to keep the wife in pie material 😉Nassim, yes, scales are available, and cheap! Along with Au test kits, as well.
https://www.amazon.com/American-Weigh-Gram-Jewelry-Scale/dp/B000O37TDO
On sleeping at night,
If any investment decision ever keeps me awake, I get up in the morning, have a cup of joe, get on the phone and SELL IT! My sleep is worth more to me than some bet.
Read somewhere in a DIY shrink book, one of the causes of anxiety is a feeling of loss of control. We could take that as a given anytime we hand over the fruits of our labor to another. Like, for instance, a stock broker, banker, insurance salesman, mutual fund manager, escrow officer, Treasury Direct, sports book clerk, keno runner… ad as fits. And, that restless night is generally trying to speak to us, maybe?
Where to? The Patriciate might respond, Gold, Real Estate and Collectibles, and hang on a couple centuries and your heirs will thank you. Humm, all could be closely held, I guess. And over a very long haul, all have maintained value.
For me, down on this side of the skids, it’s get out of any debt first. Then, accumulate at least enough cash to run off to somewhere like Datil, NM and air out for a year, if necessary. Don’t fret, one can live damned cheaply out there. And sleep well! 7-10k should do it, along with a fishing rod, couple pounds of salt pork and a cheap bolt action 22, as grub stake. And wow, with no phone and no net, reflection comes easily. (Best Pie in the West, right up the road there, in Pie Town. Really! https://www.pie-o-neer.com/) And they have a phone!
Mind you, it’s not over the edge, just 3/4 day from Phoenix, by fast Greyhound.
Then, with that in the mason jar, buried in the woods, it’s prudent to collect enough hand tools to fix a flat, swap out a water heater, wire a plug, patch a roof, mend a fence, dig a hole, wash a window, knock down weeds, peel apples at pie-o-neer etc. If you have a business, invest in it, if you trust the owner. If you don’t have one, start some little side gig. Beats sending your money off to some jake on wall street to throw onto the fire at Solyndra. Other words, there are 48,500 ways to make a buck in America. Just pick one.
From that point, don’t look back and don’t look forward anymore than a couple steps, to keep from falling over.
Then, knowing where you can get your fill of pie, keep aside 10% or so of earnings with which to invest, if for no other reason than to pay as you learn. Tuition is expensive, so the lesson sinks in better.
Pipefit,
“giving us 99% ers and tiny bankroll to get started, or perhaps nothing but the clothes on our backs, as long as they don’t have any fancy designer labels on them, lol.”
Ya mean they are gonna take away my bike! How will I get down to Mickey D’s to work?
https://gizmodo.com/5885919/14000-gucci-bike-is-an-urban-commuter-for-one-percenters
Variable,
My mind works all bass akwards sometimes, but,
” .223 & .308 rounds are certainly valuable for hunting and varmint/pest control.”
A guy came through town here sometime back on a 28 foot sloop, headed for the South Sea islands. He was stocking up on as many bricks of 22 longs as he could fit on there. Said they were the best affordable goods he could use in trade down there. He looked like the “other” kind of sailor. (Half are big shot Canadians on million dollar yachts, with speed boat tenders, the “other” half are broke loggers and laid off comm’l fishermen from Oregon and Washington on 40 year old boats and have to flag down a ride to shore.) Whatever it’s worth. 22’s are sure more economical for firing up rodents. Can put a big ‘ol bunch of ’em in a pocket, too.
Variable,
Not confusing you with a gun nut like me, (see my user name!) but those 223 cal/9mm rounds will be on every black market card table outside every military outpost on the globe. They are already barter material by troops needing a drink too close to payday in most every war theater.
And with news Social Security Admin, TSA, yada are purchasing billions of rounds, won’t be long a chunk of that cache’ leaks out onto the streets. Just the nature of the beast. Day could come, that maple leaf could buy out the whole row of tables there at the swap meet. Oh, and The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms doesn’t take kindly to trafficking in arms and ammo, unless by their own agents!
The video was shot live in Zimbabwe recording people panning for and using small gold particles to trade for bread. .01 grams per loaf at the time. It will most certainly awaken one to the grass roots actions of humans in adversity. Google it’s title in youtube. Well worth it!!!
One could cut up an ounce with a pair of wire cutters in around a minute, tendering the pieces, using whatever other pre-weighed small bits the merchant keeps on hand for change.
Worked out here in gold country years before there were widely circulated coins. (Still does, under the table, I would imagine ;). I mean, I didn’t see the baker in the video withholding sales tax, but maybe?
Remember Gunsmoke when the ‘ol prospectors walked into the Long Branch and pulled out a Bull Durham sack of gold dust for a shot? Bet Sam the bartender had a scale there behind the bar?
Pipefit,
“Far more likely, they run the dollar into the tarmac,”
Well, based on 1913 bucks, they only have a few cents left to chew up, so, if past performance is any indication of future expectations…
And on making it through all this, one can drop out most anywhere, even in Minot or Islamabad. I’ll take my chances here in these mild climed Norwest woods. Too backwards ’round here for city dogs anyhow. Gotta wait a week for new i-chit, and no 4 g or whatever that phone thing is called.
But then, was it Bertrand Russell said, on being asked why he lived in New York City responded, para “It’s the only place I can be alone.”
Pipefit says,
“You’re thinking that IF we had a hard money system, a big drop in federal revenue would be deflationary, and it would, since there are hard constraints on deficit size in such a system. Obviously, at 30% of GDP and poised to go to 40% in short order, there are currently no constraints.”
If I may take that another fathom, not only are there no constraints, all finance is based on data entry now, and a small amount of green paper, barring a credible audit of Ft. Knox, by which anything found would be claimed by the FRB/government.
In Stoneleigh’s terms “moneyness” is gone from all these illusions. That would be all the pensions, stocks, bonds, money market accounts, Real Estate book values, Medicare, SS and FRN notes.
We can bite the deflationary bullet now, and begin the healing, or we can multiply the monster 10 fold, all the way down, and bite the really big shew later. And no, I do not believe handing governments and their central banks more consent is a panacea. It was our consent that created this fiasco.
It’s presently all held together by confidence, an emotion. An Emotion! AN EMOTION!!!
As in “fire” in crowded theaters, and fire crackers in feed lots?
And these human emotions are expressed by both the rulers and the ruled. Sheeesh, why do I scare myself like this? Oh, Halloween!
John says,
“We are not the ones who should be making tight bets on the timing of trends, but rather building some kind of stable support for a rocky tumble ahead.”
A most astute statement, to which,
Fair Dave responds,
“A fine attitude, and I’m completely supportive of that mind set.”
Followed by my nickle-ninety-eight’s worth of punditry, on the rationality of “markets” under the best of circumstances,
The stock market is manic depressive. I’m not a psychologist, therefor I’m not qualified to figure out just where in that mood range it presently finds itself. I don’t know how we could fit it on a couch anyway. That said, I don’t know of too many psychologists sailing yachts around on trading profits, either.
I’ve dabbled in equity, bond, real estate, commodity, used car, Texas hold’em, antique, and flea markets for many years. Even dice at the watering hole, where I can book the best odds. And at this juncture, all I can relay from the last 4 decades of experience is…that is, the only sure thing I’m willing to bet on is, the markets WILL fluctuate.
They’ll take 90% of the dinero and redistribute it to the 10% whose birth signs are in phase. And that means not even the haves are immune from the constant reshuffle.
The only thing that I ever really broke even on has been the coffee can of pre 65 coins I filtered out of the laundry mat change machines back in the late 60’s.
Considering my qualifier above, “under the best of circumstances,” I would be damned quick on the draw if I had the panache to be exposed to the present casino atmosphere that is “markets” today.
If it is not in your hand, under a rock in the deep woods, or in a local branch of a local bank, (who’s manager shares time with you at the local coffee), under FDIC “protection” (ha!, but beats a sharp stick in the eye) than you don’t own it.
Back to John.
@ Variable,
“However, gold’s benefits of being highly concentrated can also be its curse – having a box full of highly divisable .223 or .308 rifle rounds or a pantry full of freeze-dried food cans may allow you to barter more efficiently and/or effectively than a single 1oz gold coin.”
Last I checked, a one oz gold maple goes for $1.7k. 1k rounds of 223 around $335. 5k rounds of that is h-e-a-v-y. And knowing it will never be scarce as long as it’s the chosen round of authority, well, I’ll let them carry it around ’till I might need it.
Try loading all that in a back pack on a moments notice and getting out of dodge, through a checkpoint or across a border.
Any Combat Infantryman will tell you there are times when strategy calls for retreat.
Or, one could just stand his ground and defend his perimeter against the local sheriff or the National Guard, like Randy Weaver.
On divisibility, gold can be divided into much smaller quantities than a 308 round, and still be bartered. And I firmly believe a long gun with a night vision scope draws a whole lot more attention at a checkpoint, than a gold necklace, fillings, buttons or a bracelet, or?
On standing one’s ground, again, of the 19 ways of avoiding trouble, the best is to leave. Hamburger Hill comes to mind.
And here in these woods, every goat roper, and his chocolate lab, in the county already knows where all the Citydude “compounds” are, and many could recite the inventory therein, like the septic tank man, the solar installer, the code enforcement officer, the fire control officer and even the kids, back from their squirrel hunt.
What can I say, check this out…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3LdNxV0yPM And ask, what good would a full auto m-4 do here, if the Army allowed one to keep it? Looks to me like, if one wanted to stand pat, he might invest in a truckload of gold pans and scales, maybe?
Golden Oxen says, “Isn’t this what Gold is all about? Real money, the hiding place, no counter party risk, the money without a country, the anchor in a world destabilized by violent currency turbulence.”
And when the inevitable government mandated wealth transfers take place in the form of “Means Testing,” and “Excise Taxation” what can’t be found can’t be confiscated and redistributed, no?
For 40 years the mantra was “We need more affordable housing.” Now it’s 180’ed to “We need to bring house prices back up,” to more unaffordable levels. That way, the net worth of the 60% of owners will increase, but that of the 40% of renters will decrease. So, let’s build out subsidized HUD housing at a faster rate, to alleviate the glut of homes created by previous subsidy, that will fix it, right? Raise the household net worth of renters by subsidizing their rent, taxing them, and the owners, for the subsidy. Whatever. Central Planning never really had to make sense.
Short the equities? OK, inflation adjusted, or nominally?
And, no one knows when the Fed begins buying equities en mass, if they haven’t already started. It’s their last “Wealth Effect” fairy. They have about chewed the sweet out of the bonds. Where to from zero?
Demographics? What about Mutual Funds? The ultimate financial pyramid scheme? All uninsured. All facing 20 years of net withdrawals. Shhh, don’t want to create an avalanche. But anyone with a dime in these things is a gambler, not an investor.
Poverty here we come, or back to living within our means? It’s subjective.
The illusion of security in life is just that. Back to basics.
