Professorlocknload

 
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  • in reply to: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? #5982
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    @Triv,

    “You are dead on – political frameworks are cognitive ball and chains. Removing the ball and chains open up the world for discovery. “

    But removing the ball and chains involves risk. Not for the weak spirited.

    That stated, even within Auschwitz there were markets.

    History? The one that “never repeats, but sometimes rhymes?” M.Twain

    If it doesn’t fit the agenda, go back and change it. It’s done every day. I prefer the now, with just enough respect for the “then,” to avoid undue pain.

    All wagers are on human action and reaction, not the way some central planner demands that it be.

    p01,

    When it all goes boom, we can go to the government store and take a number. Or stay active in the “unicorn” free market. These ‘Maters I get from the back woods folks are soooo much nicer than the ones with the green seeds from the regulated union grocery store monopoly. Of course, they might cost me a jar of tuna. No slot for that in the register at safeway.

    Dead guys?

    Maybe those old dead dudes should have just stuck with the Church of England, and basked in absolute security?

    Security? A human concept, promoted by overlords. That’s all. Waiting for it is waiting for Godot.

    Get free…

    https://www.freedomainradio.com/About.aspx

    Hope Stefan doesn’t turn out to be a rocky feller in drag 😉

    in reply to: What Happens When The Core Starts To Rot #5980
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Nothing more would surprise, eh?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-12/consumer-confidence-soars-highest-september-2007-biggest-beat-2005

    The US economy being consumer driven, might be expensive to buck the trend here. Sure explains all the new cars running around town, and the full restaurants. Gas at $4.97 and the heaviest traffic ever. Leaves one with a lot of questions.

    in reply to: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? #5973
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Triv,

    Got it, on the vid. Some interesting thoughts in that series. Didn’t know it’s old soap here. I ran across it a few months ago. I watch it all, from 2016 to Michael Moore, to “Collapse”, and Sesame Street, you name it. Political Atheists can do that. Good way to keep enemies close, except Oscar.

    As for Lew Rockwell and Ron Paul, both are honorable men IMO. RP’s voting record states that. The Ludwig von Mises Scholars I’ve read and encountered over the last 30 years, many who knew Mises personally, say the same of him. And, most certainly, Rockefeller and Mises had nothing in common ideologically. Promoters of Central Power and Free Market advocates just don’t mix.

    On said donations from Rockefeller Foundation. If I found myself trying to bring liberty and freedom of personal choice to the world, I would gladly accept funds from a Foundation, even if it’s ideology differed from mine. Heck, I’ve even built structures for folks who’s politics differed tremendously from mine, for money. Matter of fact, most of my customers differed in ideology. D’s and R’s mostly. Very few “Not Affiliated”

    On the Fed consisting of a bunch of academics, well, isn’t Bernanke?

    Keep your powder dry. It just could be they are losing their grip. Words out. RP did that much for us.

    Meanwhile, rock on. Life is good.

    in reply to: What Happens When The Core Starts To Rot #5972
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    What happens when the core rots?

    Do the nukes come out in France and the UK? Settling this once and for all, and establishing a new pecking order? In the past, these things have always led to war. But most began on a somewhat level field. Seems this time around, the deck is a bit stacked from the get go.

    The possibility of an event like that does make all this bickering and political maneuvering seem trivial. But it’s a good thing Germans don’t have guns this time. Because every time a German gets one, he heads to France. Must be the cheese.

    One thing positive about a resolution like that might be, poor Ilargi could finally take a break from trying to hold this TAE Wurlutzer together in Ashvin’s absence 😉

    in reply to: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? #5968
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Steve B, “Pretty funny. Prof, meet Triv.”

    Care to help me understand that? I’m new around these parts and don’t know too many here yet.

    in reply to: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? #5967
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Trivium,

    Here are all the emails you need to clear up the misconception that the Mises Institute has any affiliation with Rockefeller. Suggest you start with the institutes founder, Lew Rockwell. The original Anti-Statist, anti-Rockefeller. I’ll also contact Mark Thornton, in an effort to track down the rumor, most likely the RNC, or out of some conspiracy cave.

    https://mises.org/Faculty

    That lead presented, there is much about the Classical Liberal philosophy that is misunderstood. There is also much reason for the republicrat party/s to fear it’s truths. Especially their worshiped Federal Reserve Bank.

    in reply to: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? #5963
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Dave,

    Write downs don’t punish banks at this juncture. They punish savers, taxpayers and pensioners, who hold all that toxic dung that was dumped on them through FNMA, GNMA, Sally Mae, FHFA, FRB yada. And no, I don’t want to see that happen. It amounts to not much more than a wealth transfer from the prudent to the imprudent.

    This entire exhibition of greed has done enough damage’ lest it land on those who can least afford it. Been out of the mortgage markets for decades. As I stated, I don’t do bad debt. If I want a new house, I’ll build the son-of-a-bitch, hip pocket, not cow tow to some banker derelict. I’ll relate the story of what one of those subhumanoids did to me 35 years ago, hence my tendency to evict the species from my space, by whatever blunt means available! Some other day.

    As for BK pro’s, the construction industry is dog eat dog. NO contractor I know hasn’t been burned. Happens at the turn of every Fed induced business cycle, or used to, before they tightened it up.

    It was rampant, especially in the very transient, lawyer infested Silicon Valley area I used to work in many years ago, before I woke up and left that nest of freaks in the rear view mirror, to cannibalize each other out there, on their endless freeway parking lots, and got a life. With nine out of ten tech startups failing by default, BK was part of the government subsidy to “encourage” entrepreneurship. Just happened the anti gamblers among us were on the unintended consequence side of that. No lobby of sole proprietors, it seems.

    So, it’s either the techies ripping folks off with big brother’s blessing, or the banks. Find a common theme here? Big gov…..All the same corporatocracy.

    And now that all that mortgage paper is privately owned, the debt addicts want to shuck the loss on to the savers and taxpayers again, utilizing their big assed government. But, looking at the debt to gdp of Ireland, I’m not going to ship any money over to that “well run” nation anytime soon.
    ==============================================

    Trivuim,

    Just knowin’ you’re gonna like this link! If you haven’t already seen it. Dovetails right into your eugenics deal. As a skeptical spectator, I’ll give it a 4 stars out of 5. Careful with the Darwin quotes though. Even though the one about the Irish being the inferior race appeared in his work, it was encased by ” .

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQiW_l848t8&list=PL463AA90FD04EC7A2&index=1&feature=plpp_video

    Also, I have intimate connections with the Mises camp, with a kid who is an Austrian Economist, and many of the good people who work in the field. For a better understanding than I can offer here, due to time constraints, get with Richard Ebeling, Tom Woods and many others. I will be contacting them with your concerns and hopefully be able to clarify further. As I said, I ALWAYS go to the source. The web being such an efficient BS incubator.

    Track this guy down, he is the guru. And a straight shooter. https://mises.org/authors/361/Richard-M-Ebeling

    I will get his email for you if you can’t get it from Auburn.

    Denninger? Got a little more surefooted mule than that? I mean, we’re on the edge of a deep canyon here.

    in reply to: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? #5951
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Off thread, but always a fun read, to me at least. From back in the days I was like Stoneleigh and Ilargi, wandering around with my “end is nigh” sandwich board, questioning myself about why I wasn’t Gaw, Gaw over Real Estate like all the “Normal” people.

    They were all so happy with their new Chevy Suburbans and vacation homes, and here I was, old rusty truck and paid off house. “Open a HELOC” they said. “Have some fun.” I read this hot off the press and considered myself vindicated. That was in 2004. The peak was hit in late 04, early 2005.

    Read it to the end, or it will fly right over you. Or don’t. It’s a classic in my book because it so well elucidated the spirit of the frenzy back then.

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/orig3/blumen4.html

    in reply to: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? #5948
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Poverty?

    As the administration has now taken to rule by executive order, and the legislative is wholly owned by the same industries as the administration, with the judicial supporting all, protected by a nasty military, my concern is not poverty.

    My chief concern now (I don’t do fear) is tyranny. That’s poverty with a shovel in your hand and a gun to your head, as you dig your own grave.
    https://www.artmontana.com/article/steele/hisown.html

    And if the great American public doesn’t soon stop demanding of it’s captors, cradle to grave security and protection, tyranny will come visit them, to help out, mind you.

    This was, of course, for their own protection.

    in reply to: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? #5947
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    @Dave, maybe where you live loans are recourse, which might result in a double whammy. But I would imagine that fact would have been in the mortgage document, so caveat emptor on that. Here in Cally, these notes are, for the most part non recourse, meaning one can simply walk, free as a bird, whereby, if the bank will ever permit it, the balance gets marked to market and it’s over. Hmm, lesson for the banks.

    I haven’t heard of anyone going to prison over failure to honor their mortgage commitment, but maybe Ireland is different.

    I understand bankruptcy. I have been victimized more than once by professional bankruptcy scammers. Every 7 years, like clockwork, they run with other peoples (my) money. Sure, there are cases where one might come down with an illness or be disabled in some way, but the abuses are there on a very large scale. Nothing like walking up the steps, around the Hummer, of a $1.5 million mansion, put into protection from creditors by some general contractor who didn’t pay me, to sign papers, to make one understand human nature.

    My point is, if a contract is signed between two people or entities, and one side does not honor it, that is breach of contract. If this breach is not remedied by some semblance of a Rule of Law, you have no enforcement of contracts, therefor, no justice system, leading ultimately to corruption and collapse of a free society. Mexico comes to mind here, as I have friends who own commercial properties and businesses down there, and will attest to the reasons it will never be a prosperous nation until a strong rule of law is adopted, meaning a credible judicial system.

    One cannot sign a contract, then use force of the state to renege on it just because, on a whim, he doesn’t like the terms after the fact. There are more parties involved in a mortgage transaction than just the debtor. For the state to intervene into the agreement and forgive principal is sanctioned theft from the creditor (taxpayer?). This is the same moral hazard that was TARP, TWIST and is QE.

    Let’s play with this for a second. I buy a truck for $50,000 and finance it for 60 months, nothing down. Now, I pick up a copy of the Kelly Blue Book a year later and find the truck is now worth $20,000. But I still owe over $40,000 on it. Am I entitled to a principal write down? If so, would you please loan me the money, I need a new truck 😉

    Seems when the perception is real estate only goes up, they are lined up like drunks at happy hour to take on debt. Out bidding each other, in some cases. But when it goes the other way, then the devil made them do it. Bottom line…don’t spend more than you are willing to lose (or than you agree to pay back). This is life, as opposed to some fantastic dream of obtaining riches without working for them. This lesson must be conveyed, or we’ll have hell to pay. Well, unless you are in government.

    Oh, and, I’m not Jesus. I don’t have to forgive anyone 😉

    ps. All my life I have been given every offer under the sun to over extend myself as far as Pie Town, NM. In business credit, home equity lines, charge cards, you name it. I do not hold these offers against those who made them, because it would have been my own signature on the bottom line. By the same token, I take personal credit for not taking them up on it all.

    in reply to: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? #5937
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    @ Basseterre , on the illustration.

    I believe it’s Don Quixote, painted by

    Honoré Daumier

    With a scene from Zorba The Greek transposed over, and not sure of the watermark like images in the foreground. Appears to be derived from three sources.

    Zorba as one of my favorite fiicks, and Don being my “mentor,” I would be curious to know any more you find out.

    in reply to: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? #5936
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Hey, hey. Principal reduction. If it happened here, would I be “entitled” to a rebate? After having put in 50 hour weeks for 44 years so I could pay cash for my home? Is this the stuff of great societies? Is this a lesson that he who over extends himself the most, wins?

    Savings is now discouraged, so there will be no source of capital base, only government ponzi loans and credit, dumped on the public?

    Two over extended mortgage holders and an investor in GNMA’s voting on who’s for dinner?

    What in hell has gone wrong with this world? What kind of message does that send? Reduce their balance, so they can extend their debt even further. Reward speculation.

    In the past, I have carried back, down payments to help out honest folk who were prudent in their housing decisions. NEVER would I EVER risk that in this irresponsible environment. Making an effort to help out in a mutually accepted transaction, and being commanded to take a hit, after the fact?

    But, got to ask, who owns all that toilet paper? Certainly not the banks! Not any more. Principal write downs will certainly send a message to all those union, government pension managers (and pensioners, and annuitants) who own all that paper, eh? Of course, in this environment, all the private IRA’s will most likely need be redistributed to those same pensions as well. It’s only “fair.” More of them, than of us, no?

    Where I come from, you bite off more than you can chew, you get spanked.

    No checks and balances any longer. Never you fear, Nanny State will cover your errors. Deeper and deeper it progresses, until the guns come out and settle the score. Meanwhile, time to sell out of mortgage backed bonds and annuities. These political geniuses won’t want to be out done by an economic power house like Ireland. Do you know where your pension is?

    “What could possibly go wrong,” right?

    in reply to: The IMF -Inadvertently- Condemns The Eurozone #5921
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Bill Still says “
    “It is not what backs the money, it is WHO controls its quantity!” ~Bill Still

    I wonder how many tons of oil and gold these controllers can print? How many freight cars of food can they print? Tools? Building materials? Mechanical skills?

    And, already armed with some knowledge of how many tics of FRN’s can be mass produced in very short order, electronically or physically, I’m skeptical the gurus of fiat will use prudent judgement in their mad panic to save themselves.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-08/qeternity-explained-definitive-infographic

    in reply to: The IMF -Inadvertently- Condemns The Eurozone #5918
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    @ Trivium, Again, it’s all here. https://mises.org/

    Personally, I don’t take the political doctrine at face value, I go to the sources.

    As for money, well, I’ll go with what has worked these past 6000 years.

    On who might “control” the gold, African individuals were mining it from rivers toward the end of the Zimbabwe currency debacle, as are people now, throughout the planet. n these environs where I reside, there are many small operators. Even Newmont has the option of selling it where ever.

    In my view, honest money knows no master. Federal Reserve notes, on the other hand are very easily manipulated, as they are wholly owned by authority. Only thing I could imagine as worse would be Con-gress controlled mass producible notes. Political money vs. hard money. It being a matter of choice, we may choose our poison.

    Now, in the old days, governments had no money. It all belonged to the people, in the form of gold and silver. Legally, it still does, but first the Rule of Law would need to be restored to enforce any of that. We’ve most likely gone too far astray for that to be done, without blood shed, so, it’s every man for himself, with my goal as preventing myself being a burden on my family and society.

    “You have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the government. And, with due respect to these gentlemen, I advise you to vote for gold.” George Bernard Shaw

    in reply to: The IMF -Inadvertently- Condemns The Eurozone #5917
    Professorlocknload
    Participant
    in reply to: The IMF -Inadvertently- Condemns The Eurozone #5912
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    @Trivium,
    “The Money Power LOVES gold backed money because they control the gold and, by extension, the economy! “

    And there it is! They must be on to something. Central monetary authority, judging by the price, is probably collecting all the AU/Ag it can at this juncture, at what it considers a discount, knowing what it has put into, and plans to put into, the monetary pipeline. Lick ’em or join ’em, but at least live to fight another day.

    Rockefeller= Mises? In my view, quite the contrary. I have to ask, when did Rockefeller or any of the rest of “Robber Barronry” ever support free market capitalism, a system yet to be allowed to be tried here? Markets instead are held in tightly regulated protectionist straight jackets by their ilk, using captive government as lever.

    Corporatism is what we have here, fascism with a happy face, not capitalism. And Socialism and Fascism always eventually lead to tyranny and human suffering, as they end up cannibalizing themselves after bleeding their “charges” anemic. Then, relying on the few real capitalists in the alternative market to feed them, until such time as they can seize the reins again, yada.

    Aside, to clarify, my view of “conspiracies” in this light, is not a smoke filled back room full of “Bilderbergers.” My view of the evolution of power brokerage is more one of myriad vying factions constantly attempting seizure of too powerful state apparatus’ with which to forcefully advance their varied agendas. Their victim is always individualism and liberty, exactly those things vital to the unfettered free market philosophy von Mises promoted. Human Action, as free association. Kinda like a giant review network where stars are replaced by patronage dollars, as a score of value received for value tendered…voluntarily. A central planners worse nightmare.

    All the arguments are here. https://mises.org/ And as with any open minded forum, there is no consensus or absolute agreement here, other than freedom and liberty are most conducive to human contentment and well being, both economically and socially.

    Response to other suggestions to be continued. Still recovering from the $4.97 gal gas I put in the scooter. Damn, $8.75 to fill the tank. Can’t wait ’till the station starts taking pre 65’s again. Wonder if I can still fill it up for less than $0.40 (real) in 5 years?

    https://www.blog.providentmetals.com/protecting-your-wealth/oregon-gas-station-accepting-90-junk-silver-as-payment.htm

    in reply to: The IMF -Inadvertently- Condemns The Eurozone #5897
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Trivium, let me take a shot at why AU performs well in deflations. In short, I believe this is the case because the smart player, always looking forward, one foot in greed and the other in fear, knows the only solution throughout recorded history, taken by cornered nation states, in order to maintain power, has been devaluation. Contrarily, in the fact (inflation), AU is sold into the blowoff, as interest rates commence their rise toward compensation. ie; 70’s stagflation, from $110 street price in 1970, as the threat of deflation was a-buzz, to $800 at the rumblings of a Volcker attack, early 80’s.

    Time for one more. Wiemar, from the early stages of (artificial) nirvana being at last achieved, to the blowoff, where it was said if one had purchased the entire financial district of Berlin on credit a few years earlier, he could have bought the note back for one ounce of gold.

    As, I think, Celente said, paraphrased “When people lose everything, they lose it.” So, when the ruling elite are threatened with loss of everything, they also lose it.

    So, public gone wild, government gone wild, Wall Street gone wild…Who ya gonna call?

    in reply to: The IMF -Inadvertently- Condemns The Eurozone #5882
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    My, my, what a complex web. Pouring over the most astute comments here, I find myself searching for a way to condense it all into a form I can sink my teeth into. A bottom line, as it were.

    What I see here is a world of statist bureaucrats and their better heeled constituents scrambling to save their greedy asses from the ultimate/inevitable effects of the universal Ponzi scheme they so enjoyed building and profiting from.

    How each individual player or entity, attempts to coverup, postpone, or otherwise distance, or save, itself from the “end” is unpredictable, in the micro, so I wouldn’t bother trying to second guess desperate actors. Besides, they are just making it all up as they go along. Run a flag up the pole, gauge reaction, modify flag, run it up again…until Pavlov?

    Of course, those who can, will, take the easy, and only politically expedient way out. They will monetize their obligations. Those who can’t print, but are midway down the food chain, will take their lumps in the form of halfway depreciated currency (second hand depreciation?) 50/50 paydown/default? Which brings me to a comment by jal.

    “The problem occurs when one of the players, bank or hedge fund, decides to walk away and demands its money back with interest. Then, since nobody has any money, the game comes to an end and the system collapses.” jal

    This will most likely be among the early problems as reality sets in, and sweeping under rugs, and BS in general reaches it’s limit of credibility. This is where the 50% + or – hit takes place. Phase two, if you will. But, given protection racket’s granted preferences, 50% is a mutual compromise. If I may add to jal’s work here;

    There will be money. Just not of equal value over time.

    The REAL problem occurs AFTER the top has monetized it’s way out of it’s responsibilities and it’s protected class has taken it’s hit, but is still intact. The real trouble comes down when the masses, many of whom are in upper age brackets, as well as the young who are attempting to make a life, receive the flood of liquidity third hand. And deeply discounted.

    This is the point at which the “uppers” pretend to pay on their promises, filtered down through their intermediaries, to the bottom, who will then be required to pretend to be paid. This is where Bastille’s are stormed. And since most all in this existence is opinion and perception, this is my take on how this all ends. Worrying over what’s on the other side of this is fruitless, at this point. Drafting timelines is just plain dumb.

    Although it’s very early in the game, might be profitable in the longer run to google “DIY guillotine building.” 2018, say’s the IMF Guru, eh? Meanwhile.

    in reply to: Will The Collapse Of Spain Put Romney In The White House? #5870
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Time restraints here, but my point is efficiency and conservation would be a natural effect, if markets were allowed to function. I do not believe wealth is a zero sum game. As productivity grows, wealth pies grow. But this process requires a sound money, to take place. There was life before oil, and there will be after as well.

    The best way to accomplish this transition is not through false demand created by fiat printing governments. That is what put us here in the first place. The answer is for force to step back and let the chips fall, just as occurs everywhere else in nature. Free markets are organic. Manipulated ones are false, false as the fiat systems that manipulate them.

    As for financialization, well, what real wealth is created through rehypothication?

    As for private sector investment and productivity, yes, these have fallen at the feet of ever expanding non productive government.

    in reply to: Will The Collapse Of Spain Put Romney In The White House? #5866
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    @p01 “..we would have been living in a depression since the mid 70s. “

    Or would we have been living within our means?

    Like we used to?

    Like we will again learn to do…soon.

    in reply to: Will The Collapse Of Spain Put Romney In The White House? #5864
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Interesting ideas here re; peak things. A gallon of gas is actually on the slightly cheap side priced in silver. As it is, priced in most commodities. Had the dollar remained real, ie; backed by these commodities, gas might also be less expensive nominally, priced in dollars as well, providing more are not printed every election cycle.

    Granted, commodities have also become more expensive based on oil inputs, and dollars have remained slightly pricy based on stagnant earnings, in part caused by energy and commodity price extraction, as well as falling productivity and government consumption (The DoD being the worlds largest single consumer of petroleum?) This in mind, we are well past “peak dollar value” here. That took place in 1913.

    That posted, seems to me the one sure best “regulator” in all these equations would be the end users, the markets. The biggest obstruction to this natural regulatory function is the only entity which, in it’s quest to remain in charge, must attempt to mask this natural market function to prevent it from discovering and exposing the real price at which these scarce resources should be valued. Governments.

    If these “controllers” should simply step aside and let the actual players adjust to these realities, while pegging currencies to things real, this distorted mess would be over sooner. The longer they obfuscate and wangle, the harder the reality will be when it inevitably takes place.

    Case in point. As an (ex)contractor, I could bid distant work based on my ability to absorb fuel costs for my always overloaded “giant pick up truck,” but would almost always be under bid by someone in that distant local. Enter government distortion, my fuel is subsidized, off gross, before net.

    Now I get the job next door to my distant competitor, and he gets the job next door to me, and our “giant PU’s” pass in the night. Oh, and governments continue to protect their pals in the oil patch. Imagine if governments could own oil directly. They could subsidize it down to half price, to tweak their economic numbers, and tax intake, like in Mexico and many other places, and we could burn it all up pronto. State conservation?

    Distortions created by central planners are rife with these absurdities. Not for these, the math would automatically equalize all. Any small contractor will tell you “First, conserve, then see if you can squeak out a profit.” Just more so without a subsidy!

    Till then, AC’s for Eskimo’s furnaces for Samoan’s and Drone’s for Afghans!

    ps. The overloaded G-PU is because no sane small operator wants to enter into the world of Cl-5 over regulated trucking. PU’s and trailers are the only way to put food on the table in the trades. Please don’t ask how bad California regulations are, you wouldn’t believe my response.

    in reply to: Will The Collapse Of Spain Put Romney In The White House? #5860
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    @Backwards, “They ARE the law. All central banks are colluding. If politicians don’t go along, they are removed and puppets are installed. Madness.”

    And with that statement, who still doesn’t think QE is going to accomplish what it is designed to do? Bail out governments, unions, their pension funds and banks, all the President’s owners.

    in reply to: Will The Collapse Of Spain Put Romney In The White House? #5854
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Anyone had a look at this one yet?

    Read it right to the last paragraph.

    https://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/10/concerns-mount-that-ecb-bond-buying.html

    in reply to: Will The Collapse Of Spain Put Romney In The White House? #5852
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Backwardsevolution says “- – does it get any more ridiculous, that an unelected group of bankers and academics could wield such power?”

    Or elected ones, for that matter?

    in reply to: Will The Collapse Of Spain Put Romney In The White House? #5850
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    That the Fed is “mandated” to “control” the rate of inflation (wages/prices?), when it is the very source of it, is an interesting concept. (Not exactly democratic, in my book) That it should regulate/displace the intelligence of the millions of transactions made voluntarily in markets, indicates to me that the likes of one private bankers association head , Bernanke, must know more than all the markets and their millions of individual participants, no?

    And for this appointed banker represented bureaucrat to be anointed with the task of “promoting” employment, relieving all individual employers and employees of the burden, suggests he “knows” more about the need to hire and layoff than the small businessman down there on main street.

    In my experience, on both sides of the employee/employer paradigm, when I couldn’t land a job, I lowered my wage demand to get in the door, where I could debut. On the other hand, as an employer, when business slowed, and I was losing money, I cut workforce and spending until things balanced. That usually occurred in the midst of Fed “inspired” busts, (followed by the same inspired boom) created by their arbitrary interest rate increases.

    But, after all, the Fed knows much more about the value of risk capital than the users of said device, as it sits up there in it’s penthouse offices and looks at the clock, counting it’s outrageous income, stolen from the taxpayer, which flows is spite of the economic maelstrom raging outside it’s doors.

    But, now the blue sky! The market system of free association will prevail, as long as there are two or more people with something to exchange, and these egotistical power mad manipulators are eventually bypassed as being too obstructive and aggravating to deal with. Best for one to escape his cage about now, and develop a few free lancing skills.

    Hey, in the Soviet Union, a few years before the collapse, a pair of Levi 501’s was cheaper on the streets of Moscow, than in New York, (on an exchange rated basis) in spite of the long prison terms associated with alt market activities. Might be the “authorities” had to look the other way, lest they not have a pair for themselves.

    in reply to: Will The Collapse Of Spain Put Romney In The White House? #5842
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Right on, Tao. In fact, here’s a list of “Team Players” as we speak;

    https://www.dailypaul.com/198522/senators-who-voted-yea-for-ndaa-indefinite-detention-of-us-citizens-no-trial

    No problem. I like tuna. (No segue here!) The wife took a class put on by some local fishermen, on canning tuna. Albacore. These boats come in loaded late in the season, and the cost to the boats of refrigeration causes the price to come down to around $1.50 a Lb sometimes. Mason jars go round and round, so, who knows, after the larder is full, maybe get some private labels printed up and…Sorry Charlie!

    in reply to: Will The Collapse Of Spain Put Romney In The White House? #5840
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Jimmy Carter? Bush 1? Are you saying those were times of crisis? Inflationary, maybe, but crisis?

    Hardly.

    I find it interesting that you seem to indicate who is elected will have any effect on this Three Ring Circus anyway. These two Corporatist’s are cut from the same cloth, and backed by the same financiers. Do you honestly believe big government, big labor, the military industrial players and finance would take a chance on an outsider infringing upon their agenda?

    “Presidents are selected, not elected.” FDR

    And none of them are welcome on my property. I don’t associate with political whores.

    in reply to: Will The Collapse Of Spain Put Romney In The White House? #5835
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    I must disagree with that one, Ilargi. Americans will keep their leader in a time of crisis. FDR comes to mind here. Hell, he even got an unprecedented third term out of his persistent mishandling of the US economy.

    https://mises.org/rothbard/agd.pdf

    in reply to: There's Only One Way Forward For Europe, And This Isn’t It #5833
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    This is the perceived “One Way Out For Europe” and all other indebted nations. Food for thought for anyone “banking” on deflation. IMHO, this piece of MSM conveyed Central Bank information is universal across all indebted borders.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bernanke-says-fed-keep-rates-163016026.html

    Also, I edited the incomplete sentence in my previous question to Ilargi re; ‘Is it wise’ [to take up arms.]

    in reply to: There's Only One Way Forward For Europe, And This Isn’t It #5831
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Skip,Re; Scorpion, I’ll go with that. Point is, consent absolute power to any entity, and it will sting you. Mid stream, or if it has any sense, after it gets what it wants from you. Seems the scorpion presently on our backs is just trying to get to the other side, at our expense. They believe once the loot is securely in their vaults, we are at their mercy, as they trickle it out to us again What they haven’t figured out is, over the long run, they need us. As Ilargi noted, we have passed peak credit, ie; peak financialization. When the dust settles, the unemployment rate is going to rise on Wall Street, for a change.

    Ever see a banker on the end of a shovel? Not a pretty sight! Can you imagine one attempting to unclog his sewer line? Changing the oil in the Beamer? Patching a leaky roof on the McMansion?

    in reply to: There's Only One Way Forward For Europe, And This Isn’t It #5828
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    And, so, now that the bill is due for the biggest, wildest party the world has ever attended, the common communes are purging the less productive (useful?) from their midst, since they come with the largest debt baggage. Did they really believe the 55 retirement age, and the rest of the gravy could go on forever? That they could simply paint radio dials on rocks and summon more? (cargo cult) Or was it just too much fun to rein in before it imploded?

    Debt based consumption has always been an illusion. Fiat based money is what makes it all possible. A couple key words I picked up here in the post and comments, “Controlled” “Protection”

    Governments function as protector of the bankers vs. protector of the public? I see governments ideal roll as provider of a strong judicial system for settlement of contracts, but certainly not as preemptive “protector” of any special interest, public or private, against those who otherwise enjoy the personal liberty and opportunity to make it on their own. Maybe the “protection” powers assigned governments resulted in this malfunction of perceptions of what is real in the first place? More insurance=more risk? Isn’t that what derivatives were all about? Or the confidence, government would always save us if we ran into trouble?

    “A government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have.” Gerald Ford, before congress.

    Humm, the same fellow who let us prols own AU again just like the big banks? Wonder he didn’t walk the plank for that.

    Are central banks really all to blame here? Is a scorpion to blame for stinging the tortoise who transports him across the river, upon reaching the other side? Isn’t that what scorpions do? And how convenient. A congress shucks it’s monetary responsibilities off on a central bank, freeing it up to fund it’s own special interest, with no political repercussion. “Well, the Fed let me do it?” Of course, every coin has two sides. Imagine a congress controlled fiat currency in an election year?

    But I must digress…”When the Student is Ready, the Teacher will Appear.” Buddhist Saying.

    Ilargi. Do you really think, at these opening salvos of the confiscation of unpaid for candy, by governments and their friends, from the public that thought it was all a new paradigm, taking up arms is wise? OK, if you are Canadian, maybe, as the government (people) will cover your medical expenses, but it will still hurt, won’t it? And, at this point, with so many special interest factions developing on the streets out there, how could you know you are not making the cure worse than the disease?

    Was there, after all, a borrower out here for every lender in there? OK, not me, because I don’t do debt, but somebody enabled the system, no? I can’t choose either side in this conundrum. But, it’s hard to tango without a partner.

    Again, Confucius, “Of the 10 ways to avoid trouble, the best is to leave.” Not run, mind you, just back off and contemplate. I have been there, and wouldn’t be here if I had not taken time to reflect on what I thought I saw. Would we be like Ben and Mario, and open fire with all we had on the get go, or wait and see how deep they dig themselves into their hole, then simply kick the dirt in on them, if the banks (dual meaning) don’t cave in on them first? Bolshevik’s? NAZI’s? Did the ends really justify the means?

    I propose keeping our powder dry, until foes use theirs up, and are weakened. Is that the same as sitting around and counting “gold and silver?” Or by converting their currencies of mass destruction into future independence, are we doing more of a public service? Do we need more walking wounded on the dole, or more folks opting out of their MSM enabled act, leaving them to their own devices?

    Don’t get me wrong, you are doing the saints work here in helping expose this charade. There will be a place for you in “your” heaven. That you are frustrated proves your passion. Can the same be said for martyrs? “Dead men don’t tell tales” Blackbeards Parrot? OK. What are we doing to avoid the obligation that comes with accepting their “generosity?”

    Check engine light came on on the pick up the other day. Figured it would cost the $100 minimum to diagnose the government mandated “check engine light” code. Found out I could get an OBD scanner at sears for around $71. Wow, I get paid $29 to learn to use it, and I can charge my friends and neighbors half shop rates, ’till “Armageddon” clears out, to diagnose theirs. (will diagnose produce truck for food?)

    Said I had a defective diesel injection pump. Got two bids. One at $3800, the other slightly higher. So, I “googled” the pump and got it on the way for $1260. Meanwhile, I surfed around and downloaded a how to blurb, determined I could do the job with a basic sears mechanic tool set, on sale for $99. My net surfing time (TAE Comments?) only suffered the 7 hours it took me to get it done and running. Now, I have gained a potentially marketable experience. And I was “paid” $2370 to learn something. Have OBD, will travel! Oh, and PU is still paid for, as it has been these last 12 years 😉

    Next real life plan?

    in reply to: You're Dreaming If You Think The Euro Crisis Is Resolved #5812
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    An enemy of the state, eh? Ha! ANYONE or ANY organization that disagrees with authority is, by default, it’s enemy. Maybe good to “Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer,” about now?

    “To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.”- Voltaire

    The Rain in Spain. The pensions that never were, never will be. Before 3 billion in reserves are tapped, they must first be created in an accounting trick. Unfunded liabilities are assets too?

    Cute, they use “borrow” (from the future) as a way of pushing this bait and switch out into the ether. Condensed, all they are saying is, “We are now going to cancel your pensions,” same result, different sales pitch. “Now”, begets despair, “Future” buys time to hope, pacifying.

    The end game? My “guess” is, power wins, until it becomes so mindless it steps in front of a cross town bus, along with the hollow promises it rode in on. I hope I’m sitting in the front row on that ride!

    Again; “Sooner” is gone. “Later,” it is.

    “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” Mises

    Such a simple concept. Maybe if it could be jazzed up some way by an intricately complex set of chemical and algebraic formulas, more would pay attention to it?

    in reply to: You're Dreaming If You Think The Euro Crisis Is Resolved #5809
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Dave, some good points there. Hunger can be a strong motivator, of both hostility toward those who brought it on, as well as submission to those who promise to relieve it. (One in the same, sometimes?)

    Ilargi, that all authority has first and foremost it’s own best interests at heart is a given. Petitioning the beast, which has now escaped it’s cage, to do more, is not prudent. And trying to enlighten the believers in the Cargo Cult of entitlements to eternity at the expense of others, can be a fools errand, as the messenger is usually dissed. As I may have mentioned in the past, maybe not here, when an entity reaches critical mass and controls the money, courts, jails, media and military, it trades consent for corruption (absolute power). The governed take second fiddle.

    Believing we can, at this point, given the momentum of tyrannical trajectory, turn this thing around, is probably futile. The ballot box won’t work because the array of candidates is stacked. The Legislative “Community” has established safeguards for itself through NDAA, DHS and such. Guns could stir it up, but would also put Leviathan on the defensive even more.

    Who would have stood in front of Mao’s long march? The Mechanized US military column into Baghdad? Or even the storming of the Bastille, as a reach? OK, for the fringe, who wants to be Randy Weaver?

    My attraction to this site is the “Live to fight another day” aspect. Though, I don’t think the guy who builds a bunker and fills it full of preps is going to make it through this unless he first gets a firm grip on his ability to keep his head in alignment with the what is, not the what if. Hell, the time may arrive when he must abandon all he has built and stored, and leave Dodge…with nothing but the space between his ears to rely on.

    Fear is the antithesis of productive thought process. It distorts perception as central banking distorts markets. It should be countered with thoughts like “got lemons, get out the juicer” not “woe is me, head for the bunker.”

    Is community organization really an answer? My experience with HOA’s, PTA’s, Business Associations, City Councils, is all tend to become many wolves and a few sheep voting on what’s for dinner. Not to mention those glorious “communes” of the 60’s, not a one of which is around today.

    Now, I’m a “political atheist,” so don’t take this out of context, but the Dear Leader of the most powerful government on earth is a “Community Organizer” empowered with an arsenal of DEA agents and Drones, directed at those who are not team players.

    What if an arrogant egotistical unelected anointed bureaucrat decides to trash the medium of exchange in an attempt to concentrate all markers of wealth into the hands of his “community.”

    What if a Spaniard is killed by a “Police Community” bullet?

    What if an American Ambassador is killed by a “Religious Community” in Libya?

    These are significant events,maybe life changing, but we can’t know in what way.

    Not enough space here for all the possibilities, so I’ll just sit tight and wait and watch until they hit the county line, to formulate a near term plan. Might obtain a sloop and head west, or stay around and buy C-Rats from the troops and sell them to the citizens, when the public trough runs dry. Must be a reason huge alternative markets develop around military installations. Got to be a pony in here somewhere.

    https://mattmclean.blogspot.com/2008/04/there-must-be-pony-in-here-somewhere.html

    Next? Hopefully, as Ilargi says, some ideas we can use.

    in reply to: You're Dreaming If You Think The Euro Crisis Is Resolved #5800
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Dave, from a fundamentalist investor, to a chart guy, thanks for the clarification. I use charts, as well, to fix benchmarks, and spot trends, in more stable environments than this one. I just don’t go off into Elliot Wave type concepts and heads and shoulders and such. I am much more interested in the human action/reaction elements of economic processes. Greed, fear, confidence, complacency, apathy, that sort of thing. Hence my interest in some way to chart the sentiments of the players in the game, as well as crowd perceptions of, and reactions to, geopolitics among national populations. Demographics is also fascinating, and here, charting is very helpful.

    in reply to: You're Dreaming If You Think The Euro Crisis Is Resolved #5796
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Regarding using past performance to chart, er, the uncharted waters of unfolding economic crisis, has anyone managed to compile a chart of incidence of civil unrest, such as going on in world wide cities now? (Madrid?) The true “stress test,” IMHO.

    And if so, would we suppose past performance is indicative in the formation of future expectations? Just a thought.

    Is it possible, some things are very difficult to quantify?

    Could statistics really be misleading, 46% of the time?

    Or, does human action ultimately trump, and confound them, in the random walk of things?

    What did the chartists and technical analysts say back in the late 20’s?

    “There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.”
    – Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929

    https://myinvestorsplace.com/2009/05/10/great-depression-1929-quotes-statements/

    in reply to: You're Dreaming If You Think The Euro Crisis Is Resolved #5788
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    @Ilargi;

    “Are they all wrong? Yes they are, not because they’re all stupid, but because they don’t include a truly severe depression in their thinking and their models.”

    A “truly” severe depression to me is an inflationary depression. As long as bankers create the money in this system, that’s where my bets will be. What’s your definition of one?

    As for needing a million “dollars” to begin to believe one may simply sit on a pile of Federal Reserve Promises to Pay, to get by. Good luck. Don’t ask me how, but they will wring that last 4 cents in value left from the last 100 years of policy, out of their paper. (Is there a trend here?)

    The pile will end up worth it’s intrinsic value, but a claw hammer and the ability to swing it without mashing thumbs or knocking holes in the wall, will become priceless. Personally, I would rather pack a few gold coins with me to any new, safer place I might like to be, as opposed to a hundred pounds of tools or a cotton sack of processed green wood pulp, with which to purchase new tools. Especially if that haven might be in another country, where they already have enough pulp of their own with which to light a fire.

    Now, I don’t have any fancy charts to draw on, but I am confident the price of a good framing hammer has kept up with inflation, or will catch up in the kind of collapse “predicted.” Heck, it might even hold it’s own in a deflationary rout, who knows? And, most certainly, skilled labor will see to it that it marks itself to whatever market prevails in the future. In which case, one may get off that pile of dead presidents, and do productive work, and most likely get by.

    So, if I were a Fractal Dung Beetle (see Fred Reed), I would definitely be pursuing every avenue in learning and practicing a useful, barter-able trade or skill set of some sort. Undertaker? Bartender? Plumber? Mechanic? Cardboard sign printer?

    So, maybe the age of investment is not over, but is in transition from the financial realm to the fields of necessities.

    As per Martenson, 90-10 is a wager. (There’s lies, damn lies, and statistics) That the savvy and strong survive is a given, because they will most likely deal in what is, not in 10,000 what if’s.

    Another thought to ponder. Mobility, in many past ponzi collapses, has been an advantage. Where did all those folks in Detroit go?

    What can you pack? I mean, after some tyrannical local community posse runs you off your doomstead? (Property taxes having been up’ed to meet that pile of FRN’s you have been sitting on, or some lawyer wants a cut, or your corn row is messing up the migration pattern of the three toed salamander, or the discovery of one part per quadrillion of benzine in the air, just inside the property line ?)

    So, I guess what I’m alluding to here is, it will all fluctuate, along with our open minded perceptions. Bend with it, or snap. That said, keep the ideas coming here, they are what I’m in it for.

    As an aside, I heard from a Russian fellow that, on the collapse of the Soviet Union, all sorts of gold and silver coins began to surface, most dated before the founding of that great deadly social experiment. Do we suppose the deeds to land were still registered to the same families then, as before?

    in reply to: You're Dreaming If You Think The Euro Crisis Is Resolved #5763
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Could it be Mr. D is in the business of making book on card stackers, raising his stops with each new level reached? Dealing in “nominals” as opposed to “reals?”

    Like, might he hold beads and pork bellies for different reasons than we, automatically selling them when the quants are triggered?

    in reply to: You're Dreaming If You Think The Euro Crisis Is Resolved #5760
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    My earlier comment here got lost in space, so in short;

    Trivium@
    “So if this whole Euro thing is bad for the people on the ground, WHO is pushing for it that has the POWER to force their will onto the people?”

    Who? What?

    1. Central Banks, at the direction of their owners,

    2. The Banksters, funded by,

    3. The Corporations, who purchase the,

    4. Politicians, who are promised a piece of the action for playing along.

    A system made possible by seizure of governments from self serving voters, who previously made them large enough, to provide absolute protection to the new owners…absolutely. The voter then being set aside, as no longer useful except as subject of the realm.

    The western worlds democracies and republics could now be called Corporatocracies. (Fascism, with a happy face?) And don’t be fooled by these politicians who are “appealing” to their constituents to whack the big bad banks and hand power back to the people, through even more regulation. Not only will they not cede power, there is just no money in it for them.

    The easy fix is gone now, negated by “Martial Law Light.” That be the “Redress” clause in that pesky First Amendment. https://www.givemeliberty.org/FreedomDrive/Redress.pdf Especially the “or disturbing public tranquility” part. (Ask OWS about that) Matter of fact, it would not surprise me that after one more staged “youtube film” uprising like the one taking place in the ME, that the free speech part will be “adjusted” as well, and sites like this one and Zero Hedge will go dark. Then we’ll find the true meaning of “every man for himself”

    But, it is what it is, until it isn’t. Until then, steer clear of the steamroller, pick up a few crumbs and enjoy what isn’t in their clutches. We just aren’t anywhere near the point where the personal risk of blood letting is worth the unknown outcome, to most folks. To the contrary, they are actually requesting their captors “do more.” ?

    in reply to: Bernanke And Draghi Are Not Trying To Save Our Economies #5742
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Money=time=life spent? Different folks have different sets of “values.” As a Voluntaryist, I value Liberty and Freedom to Associate above all other aspects of my adventures on this dirtball, as it spins through time and space. The rest is, ahh, immaterial…er, material? That suggested, may I also recommend one of the most interesting, and simple, little tomes I have ever “consumed.” Thankfully, enough years ago to assist in changing my course a couple of degrees away from the swamp. It can be picked up used for under five bucks or so. What are you out?

    https://www.amazon.com/Your-Money-Life-Transforming-Relationship/dp/0140286780

    Surprised it’s still in print. Then again, maybe it’s time has come around again?

    Wow, a Latte’ costs more of my life, that the time it takes to drink it 😉

    ps Get it through the sidebar there, and throw Stoneleigh and Ilargi a bone for all they do here.

    in reply to: Bernanke And Draghi Are Not Trying To Save Our Economies #5736
    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    Perhaps of interest;

    On the “safety” of short treasuries;

    They are as safe as the full faith and credit of the Federal Reserve Bank. In observing Bernanke’s and Draghi’s tweaking and twisting of accepted truths, while squirming in their chairs, quivering lower lips, broken nervous speech, as they embark on unprecedented and radical policy maneuvers, are we inclined to hold our faith in highest esteem for these apparatchiks? They are, after all, sovereign debt instruments, incarnate. For a short answer, might want to google “Russian Bond Market Collapse”

    What they don’t want to hear? Right here;

    “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
    — Ludwig von Mises

    IMHO, they are presently attempting to mix, mish-mash, and otherwise shuffle those astute words into scrambled scrabble letters in every possible way of avoiding their truth.

    On stocks (S&P 500)?
    “Remember that the stock markets are manic depressive.” Warren Buffet

    Capital preservation?

    I like to reset my “Investor Persona” every so often, by stepping away from the LCD, taking a walk on the beach where I am humbled by the vastness and power of the Mighty Pacific, while reflecting on the fact that I came into this bittersweet existence with nothing, and will be someday departing with same-same. Or;

    “There will be two dates on your tombstone…your date of birth and your date of death. The only thing that really matters is that dash in between” Unknown

    On predictable outcome?

    Give me each play in advance of a Superbowl Game, and the score at the end of each quarter, and I will cover all your expenses on a trip with me to the sports book in Las Vegas!

    How long, or bad could it be?

    Hop a flight to New Delhi, and catch a ride out to Bhagwanpura (Says a friend, a Mr. Patel, as I haven’t been there, but his elucidation is sufficient, for I have experienced other similar environments in South East Asia.) But, smiles most likely could be found there, if one looked closely.

    I guess what I’m suggesting here is, listen to every opinion offered, then insert each into your perception “software” and process, scrutinize, and test the whole, to establish the acceptable outcome upon which you are willing to take action, not forgetting to change your mind as the facts change.

    Example perception testing thoughts;

    “I might buy green backs, then one morning they are replaced by orange backs, at 2:1.”

    “I might buy bonds, then some unlikely event (black Swan?) takes place, shattering confidence.”

    “I might buy gold, then India and China go over the edge, flooding the market with it.”

    “I might buy a “doomstead” only to find it in the eminent domain path of a go fast rail to nowhere.”

    “I could load up on firearms with the perception anarchy is around the corner, only to find my state has rendered them illegal, I don’t turn mine in and end up charged with a felony, riding out the crisis in the safety of a jail cell”

    I could go on, but the answer to these dualistic examples is somewhere in the “grey areas” between. So, until our own “Nirvana,” may we stop, one day at a time, to smell the roses.

    FAQ. OK, Mr. Knowitall, how do we protect ourselves?

    Answer. Are you using a lantern to search for fire?

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