gurusid
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gurusidParticipant
HI Ken,
Bakken May 2013 statistics: 109 additional wells month over month, about 540,000 barrels more month over month. At least $8,000,000 per well. Indeed, the math does not suggest nothing but blue skies (872 million/540,000).
=$1614.81 per barrel. (???)
Todays Price (7/Aug/13):
WTI Crude Oil
$105.30Brent Crude Oil
$108.18They will need to produce a lot more at zero further investment cost to bring that price down given depletion rates of 40% – do you have cumulative produced volume against current total investment?
From the ‘Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC)’:
Oil Recovery Well Per Well
On an individual well basis, ultimate recovery from North Dakota wells range from 500,000 to 900,000 bbl per well, compared to 100,000 to 400,000 bbl per well in the Elm Coulee Field of Montana. Improved hydraulic fracturing technology including more fracturing stages have become significant contributors to improved production. In addition, the productive reservoir section on the North Dakota side of the Williston Basin is thicker and more widely distributed, typical of an unconventional resource play. If the predictions prove to be accurate and are repeatable over a wide area, the Bakken would likely be the most prolific onshore oil play in the United States.
Recoverable does not mean ‘profitable’… :ohmy:
From ‘Oil and Gas Investments’:
Bakken Oil Production: Can the Giant Oil Formation Reach 1 Million Barrels a Day?by Keith Schaefer on December 28, 2012
“…derailed only if oil prices fell a lot”. Luckily that will never ever ever happen… :unsure:
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Ilargi,
The shale industry has from the start been based on huge, and hugely exaggerated, reserve estimates. This is not an innocent mistake, it’s part of an enormous speculative landgrab. The profits on buying and selling land have been mind-boggling. But now the best land has been traded to the greater fools, and it’s time for profits from actual production. Which turns out to be so far below the initial estimates that even a wealthy corporation like Shell has started to write down its worst assets, for which it realizes there is no greater fool available anymore; Shell itself is the greatest fool.
In the nineteen eighties the oil market was deliberately flooded with North Sea and Alaskan oil and gas to lower prices after the rise in the late seventies. In 1985-6 there was a sharpe drop in price:
This had the effect of economically bankrupting the then Soviet energy industry and the Union itself as much of the money from oil went to pay for grain imports.It is ironic that in the current situation the US has flooded its own market based economy with tales of cheap gas that has crashed the price thus hastening the inevitable energy decline due not least to the waste of fuel not ‘profitable’ to bring to market. That and a lack of proper management and foresight of a declining resource and we all know what that will lead to:
…The fall of the Soviet Union, wrote Gaidar in a 2007 paper, “should serve as a lesson to those who construct policy based on the assumption that oil prices will remain perpetually high.”
Engineer, blogger and author Dmitry Orlov would mostly second that conclusion. He experienced the collapse first hand and attributes much of the chaos to peak oil.
“The Communist regime was so corrupt and stealing as much as they could that they didn’t pay attention to the system. It was on autopilot,” said Orlov in a recent talk.
……But in the mid-1980s, Soviet oil production topped off at 12 million barrels a day due to poor management, old technology and lack of investment. And then oil production started to drop. As oil fields ran dry, the authorities spent more cash to coax more petroleum from aging reservoirs with massive water flooding programs.
But these technological fixes didn’t put much of a dent in the nation’s oil depletion rates.
…
Just before Soviet oil production peaked in 1988 (the event walked hand in hand with a major drop in oil prices), the empire realized that it no longer had enough black gold to pay its bills.
History may not repeat, but it certainly rhymes… the US could become it own Greater Fool – its certainly on ‘auto-pilot’.
Of course similar events won’t stop the Haliburton’s of this world from making huge profits, after all the current ideology is growth at any cost (with side dishes of energy independence) even in the face of a Reality that says otherwise; its no wonder that idealogical driven politicians (US, UK etc) lap this stuff up:
“The only thing greater than profit is ideology, and the only thing greater than ideology is profiting from ideology.”
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Ilargi,
We can’t understand life, and we can’t measure it, or even catch it in words; the best we can do is to stand in awe and be grateful that we get to see it unfold in motion for the few short years we are given.
Indeed, compared to this from Cyberselfish by Paulina Borsook:
Exposing a ‘selfish’ tech culture
A Short excerpt from the Introduction in USA Today 4/11/00The most virulent form of philosophical technolibertarianism is a kind of scary, psychologically brittle, prepolitical autism. It bespeaks a lack of human connection and a discomfort with the core of what many of us consider it means to be human. It’s an inability to reconcile the demands of being individual with the demands of participating in society, which coincides beautifully with a preference for, and glorification of, being the solo commander of one’s computer in lieu of any other economically viable behavior. Computers are so much more rule-based, controllable, fixable, and comprehensible than any human will ever be.
:whistle:
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantBill Gates ‘Education Model’ aka [strike]Microsoft[/strike] Microschool:
You ‘buy’ some education.
You don’t own it.
You can ‘use’ it , but only in ways that we say you can.
You cannot modify it.
We will upgrade it for free, but it might not work after we have patched it.
After a few years, we will make it obsolete, so you will have to buy some new education and learn to do the same sh*t a different way.
We believe in education for life (as long as you pay and you do not VIOLATE our EULA (Education Under Large Asshole?) BTW, MS patents apply, copyright and trademarked – we own this sh*t ok?)
If you try to do your own thing, we will find you and shut you down, unless you agree to do it OUR WAY with OUR School Ware!“IMPORTANT—READ CAREFULLY: This End-User License Agreement (“EULA”) is a legal agreement … addendum to this EULA may accompany the [strike]Software[/strike] School Ware.”
Microschool – Where Don’t We Want You To Go Today?
😆
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Folks,
Interesting ‘antidote’ to ‘isms’:
Paul Hawken on ‘Blessed Unrest’
[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1fiubmOqH4[/video]
Oh and for those who cite Hardin (‘Tragedy of the Commons’):
Neo-liberal ideology is a symptom not the cause of our broken relationship with that ‘thing’ we call nature, our True Mother, the origin of us and all we see about us. :dry:
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Folks,
But that was not my point. I wanted to address a different fallacy: that of trying to put dollar values on – sections of – our destruction of the world we inhabit. Capitalism tends to express everything in dollars, and that’s where it fails: it has no other values, and therefore might as well have none. If we convince ourselves to believe that the demise of the polar bear or the bumble bee or, for that matter, half the population of Bangla Desh, can be expressed in numbers or dollars, we lose all hope of understanding the issues involved, let alone doing anything to counter them.
&
It’s hard to believe people allow their minds to go there (and still claim they love their children).
Actually I would argue that they don’t love their children, or rather they do not know what love is, its not in their value system. Its an insane society that has ‘pissed’ on the childrens fire:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JchSac-VP0
As I’ve commented before, if your value system is corrupted, or worse still is non-existent, then how can you know, ever, what you are doing? Whether it is right or wrong? Many do not know, this is why they do not know what they are doing. What do you value? What has Real Value and not just a price? People horde money and material possessions thinking they have value. This happens because they do not know what they are doing. They allow over a thousand people, half of whom were women and also many children to die in a building collapse in April earlier this year (2013) at Dhaka, a suburb of Savar in Bangladesh to save a few pennies on clothes. Do you think that would happen if they knew what they were doing?
Most people today are mad; they have the wrong set of values and insanely cling to them – status, power, control and wealth. These are not true values, these are objects of desire and greed. True values are about caring; they are about Love, Compassion, Beauty and Truth. And you cannot charge for them because they are free.
Then again, I don’t agree with Doug Tompkins that we have stopped evolution. Evolution, which is another word for life itself, is a force much grander than mankind. We are but an afterthought in the scheme of evolution. And if we don’t fit that scheme, we will end up as just another one in a multi-billion years’ series of billions of failed species. If we wish for our progeny to survive, we need to focus our efforts on understanding, not ignoring it. We are not bigger than life itself. At least that we should be able to agree on.
I agree, though I question the term failed species – failed in what way, by whose criteria? Ours? Evolution itself is another theory, co-opted by the same forces to support their dogma of selfish competition. Darwin agreed with Wallace that the term survival of the fittest was better than selection due to its less anthropomorphic connotations, but they meant by this an adaptation to immediate local environment in what one would now term symbiosis, not a total domination over the whole planet with a view to using it as it pleases which is the current societies ‘ism’. :dry:
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Agelbert,
Thankyou – that is Really Inspiring! Since the early nineties I too have sought out a better/alternative lifestyle.
More recently I have been active in finding out ways to ‘sustainably’ garden the Earth: see here and herewith such projects as the No Dig allotment experiment with some students in the North of England, and with others helping to set up a local sustainability initiative including sharing land to grow food on.
I had a house – see here I had adapted to be as sustainable as the circumstances would allow, but I sold this to get out of debt. I now live in a small space (6′ x 8′) in a shared house and out of the back of my camper car which runs on bio-diesel made from old cooking oil (when I can get it). I am in the process of starting up a social enterprise to move LLUTE (Live Lightly Upon The Earth – you heard it first hear!) Projects forwards in my local area, with a ‘franchise’ element to allow others to do the same.
As Tim ‘Mac’ Macartney says, we need “Dreamers, Poets and Doers”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcijGIqi3UAInterested?
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi folks,
Tim ‘Mac’ Macartney on the children’s fire – the consideration for the future and the children of the future. Also on Edgar Shine exploring organisation culture and the unconscious plethora of basic assumptions in the way we let business happen; there is no reason not to take the children’s fire into consideration. Until we set this fire at the centre of all institutions of power we will continue to trash the planet. It asks for bravery and the freedom of thought – when the day comes when I stand at my grave etc.-
Only an ‘Insane’ society would ‘piss’ on the children’s fire:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JchSac-VP0
Children’s fire is a gift from the indigenous peoples of many countries – honour that which is sacred in nature.
This one is on water and its sacredness, along with the lost relationship/reverence of life:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7ZGkq_lmFE
@ Angelbert,
I agree about ‘aquifer’ poisoning, check out Macs vid above.
As for your comment on PV:
There was an easy way around that. You buy your battery bank and keep it charged from the grid, not the PV panels. You have an electrician set up a switch from the inverter to the grid so that if grid power is lost, you just isolate yourself from the grid and the PV panels will then be able to keep your batteries charged and you are supplied with power until grid power comes back.
Actually in most instances the legal frame work and contractarian BS around grid tied solar prevents such switching, if you want to obtain the FITs that is… 🙁
Also be careful about preaching to the choir, in the immutable words of Elvis:
A little less conversation, a little more action please
All this aggravation ain’t satisfactioning me
A little more bite and a little less bark
A little less fight and a little more spark
Close your mouth and open up your heart and baby satisfy me
Satisfy me babyCan you tell us a little of what you have done yourself on the ground so to speak? 🙂
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Ashvin,
Our old house is broken down by God’s grace, and the new house is established with Christ as its foundation (by faith). Then, although we are saved, we should attempt to build upon that foundation with righteous works, which will be “tested by fire” to reveal what they truly are. If they are merely superficial works, then we are only saved as one “escaping through the flames”.
Now that I like! 🙂
“In My Father’s House There Are Many Rooms.” (John 14:2)
Many non-Catholic denominations have referred to this passage in their argument that everyone who has faith in Jesus, they are saved no matter what religions they belong to.
…n’est pas? Yes I know it refers to the ‘saving only of parishioners’ who specifically follow Christ, but IMHO that is the same ‘elitism’ that is involved with the current economic crisis. I prefer the interpretation that everyone who turns in their heart to the principles of Christ’s teaching will automatically be saved. :woohoo:
Sid (short for Siddhartha?)
No, just vicious, as in the Sex Pistols… :whistle: The ‘L’ stands for LOVE every time! 😆
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Ashvin,
Well to me IMHO:
It will be revealed with fire, and the fire will test the quality of each person’s work. If what has been built survives, the builder will receive a reward. If it is burned up, the builder will suffer loss but yet will be saved—even though only as one escaping through the flames.
As I see it this is describing two states of being and sounds metaphorically like:
I came across two lines attributed to Buddha describing his enlightenment experience. Referring to self as a house, he said, “All thy rafters are broken now, the ridgepole is destroyed.” And there it was – the disappearance of the center, the ridgepole; without it, there can be no house, no self. When I read these lines, it was as if an arrow launched at the beginning of time had suddenly hit a bulls-eye. It was a remarkable find. These lines are not a piece of philosophy, but an experiential account, and without the experiential account we really have nothing to go on. In the same verse he says, “Again a house thou shall not build,” clearly distinguishing this experience from the falling away of the ego-center, after which a new, transformed self is built around a “true center,” a sturdy, balanced ridgepole.
Thus “if what has been built survives, the builder will receive a reward” which is the “oneness” union with God, where as “If it is burned up, the builder will suffer loss but yet be saved – even though only as one escaping through flames” equates to the state of no-self being left at all – but still the body is ‘saved’.
As far as Ilargi and Stoneliegh go, I get the distinct impression that they are coming from their own experiential positions in terms of their knowledge and learning which I think if anything is informed be previous historical “raw hard data”. Perhaps they would like to comment?Still at the end of the day, no one can accuse us of being slothful eh!. 😉
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Variable,
Good call! Sounds like you need a bit of inspiration! Check out TED Talks. Also joining a powerful and supportive social group such as (for men) the ManKind Project, and (for women) the Woman Within can help us to get the support we will all need during these testing times.
Best Wishes,
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Ashvin,
I understand, and I am questioning your misguided (IMO) theological perspective of Christianity, in which an artificial congruency with Eastern philosophy/religion is imposed on it.
I beg to differ. Bernadette Roberts was a Christian contemplative:
In her own words, she could not find any reference to this experience anywhere, not even initially in Buddhism:
Initially, when I looked into Buddhism, I did not find the experience of no-self there either; yet I intuited that it had to be there. The falling away of the ego is common to both Hinduism and Buddhism. Therefore, it would not account for the fact that Buddhism became a separate religion, nor would it account for the Buddhist’s insistence on no eternal Self – be it divine, individual or the two in one. I felt that the key difference between these two religions was the no-self experience, the falling away of the true Self, Atman-Brahman. Unfortunately, what most Buddhist authors define as the no-self experience is actually the no-ego experience. The cessation of clinging, craving, desire, the passions, etc., and the ensuing state of imperturbable peace and joy articulates the egoless state of oneness; it does not, however, articulate the no-self experience or the dimension beyond. Unless we clearly distinguish between these two very different experiences, we only confuse them, with the inevitable result that the true no-self experience becomes lost. If we think the falling away of the ego, with its ensuing transformation and oneness, is the no-self experience, then what shall we call the much further experience when this egoless oneness falls away? In actual experience there is only one thing to call it, the “no-self experience”; it lends itself to no other possible articulation.
Initially, I gave up looking for this experience in the Buddhist literature. Four years later, however, I came across two lines attributed to Buddha describing his enlightenment experience. Referring to self as a house, he said, “All thy rafters are broken now, the ridgepole is destroyed.” And there it was – the disappearance of the center, the ridgepole; without it, there can be no house, no self. When I read these lines, it was as if an arrow launched at the beginning of time had suddenly hit a bulls-eye. It was a remarkable find. These lines are not a piece of philosophy, but an experiential account, and without the experiential account we really have nothing to go on. In the same verse he says, “Again a house thou shall not build,” clearly distinguishing this experience from the falling away of the ego-center, after which a new, transformed self is built around a “true center,” a sturdy, balanced ridgepole.
(bold added)
This actually parallels the economic position of TAE; they are using an experiential account of an economic reality i.e. Predatory Elitism and Deflationary Depression that the Churches of economics have no description of. This is why it is so difficult to explain to the majority of economists, and to a larger extent the rest of the current economic church going public. :woohoo:
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Ashvin,
What ever works for you – that’s the way it has to be for everyone. Forgive me if I sounded trite – it was foolish of me to question your faith in the way I did, and for that I am truly sorry. 😳
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Ashvin,
How about Judaism?
I was making the point of how ‘Empires’ – that is structures of power and politics (as Ilargi has alluded to above) usurp the ‘spiritual’ impulse (which is internal) to its own ends which is dominion over the external manifest material world and increasingly throughout history the internal world as well. Judaism was not to my knowledge usurped by an Empire as its own doctrine, unless you want to include ‘international banking’ :dry:
[strike]Your ‘focus’ on someone called ‘Jesus’ and ‘His’ – ‘His-story’ misses entirely the deeper points about the internal spiritual path. You might as well join Viscount at the ballpark. Don’t get me wrong, I am not questioning your faith, just where it is focused.[/strike] – (Edit see below.)
Bernadette Roberts is a modern mystic who IMHO exemplifies the internal path that is the same for all humans, even if it has different ‘histories’ and frameworks:
However she has tendency to speak about the experience of No-Self as a stage rather than as the everpresent nature of reality, a dharma seal… even though she knows experientially that nondual is pathless without entry and exit.
“Bernadette: That occurred unexpectedly some 25 years after the transforming process. The divine center – the coin, or “true self” – suddenly disappeared, and without center or circumference there is no self, and no divine.”
Initially, when I looked into Buddhism, I did not find the experience of no-self there either; yet I intuited that it had to be there. The falling away of the ego is common to both Hinduism and Buddhism. Therefore, it would not account for the fact that Buddhism became a separate religion, nor would it account for the Buddhist’s insistence on no eternal Self – be it divine, individual or the two in one. I felt that the key difference between these two religions was the no-self experience, the falling away of the true Self, Atman-Brahman.
Unfortunately, what most Buddhist authors define as the no-self experience is actually the no-ego experience. The cessation of clinging, craving, desire, the passions, etc., and the ensuing state of imperturbable peace and joy articulates the egoless state of oneness; it does not, however, articulate the no-self experience or the dimension beyond. Unless we clearly distinguish between these two very different experiences, we only confuse them, with the inevitable result that the true no-self experience becomes lost. If we think the falling away of the ego, with its ensuing transformation and oneness, is the no-self experience, then what shall we call the much further experience when this egoless oneness falls away? In actual experience there is only one thing to call it, the “no-self experience”; it lends itself to no other possible articulation.
Initially, I gave up looking for this experience in the Buddhist literature. Four years later, however, I came across two lines attributed to Buddha describing his enlightenment experience. Referring to self as a house, he said, “All thy rafters are broken now, the ridgepole is destroyed.” And there it was – the disappearance of the center, the ridgepole; without it, there can be no house, no self. When I read these lines, it was as if an arrow launched at the beginning of time had suddenly hit a bulls-eye. It was a remarkable find. These lines are not a piece of philosophy, but an experiential account, and without the experiential account we really have nothing to go on. In the same verse he says, “Again a house thou shall not build,” clearly distinguishing this experience from the falling away of the ego-center, after which a new, transformed self is built around a “true center,” a sturdy, balanced ridgepole.
etc.
Her new book The Real Christ I think is well worth investigating, and I will be ordering a copy soon.
This from a review:And her freinds page is interesting too.
Again there is that IMHO deliberate obfuscation by the ‘religious’ mechanism.
The ‘mythology’ is just that, it is an allegorical framework for the internal path to the divine – it was never meant to be taken as a material factuality – it is a spiritual ‘eternality’, the ‘stories’ may change but the ‘song’ always is the same.
The point is that modern economics and finance are so totally removed from any consideration of selflessness and the common good, yet alone the spiritual inner path that it is a joke when members of this ‘caste’ babble on about philanthropy (Gates Foundation anyone? In the future you won’t own your food, just the ‘right to use it’, and ‘we’ will upgrade it without prior notification – aka the Microsoft model writ large). Their whole world revolves around the ‘ego’. Truly it is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than it is for a rich man to enter into heaven… :dry:
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Folks,
Of the seven deadly sins, Pride, Greed, Lust, Envy, Gluttony, Wrath, the only one bankers cannot be accused of is Sloth.
Actually that is the very one that they are most guilty of. As in the original meaning and context of the word in the ‘religious’ sense: of being spiritually lazy – the materialistic slant of just being physically lazy and ‘good for nothing’ came from the rise of Mammon itself in order to instil the ‘work ethic’ and thus a tighter control over others for personal gain. The fact that the word itself comes from the Latin religio-onis meaning bond or obligation should be a give away.
“Religion was invented when the first con man met the first fool” — Mark Twain
This pseudo-spirituality of some force ‘out there’ or ‘in the future’ (salvation anyone? Heaven? How about growth or ‘better’ living standards?) is a mask all religions use to hide their real raison d’etre which is one of control and subjugation which is but a function of civilisation itself especially in the form of Empire. It is no coincidence that the rise of all major religions coincided with the rise of empire: Brahmanism (Hinduism) with its caste system (the most blatant and open of control systems – your position in society is down to your previous life…) Ashoka, Emperor of the Mauryan Empire who converted to Buddhism (the core teaching amazingly survived); Christianity which was ‘Remodelled’ by Emporer Constantine (it evolved from a cult of Mithras’ that was popular with the ‘military’) and turned the fading secular Empire into the reborn ‘Holy Roman Empire’; and not forgetting Islam, itself the product of the rise of the Arab Nation in the 7th Century as Persia and Rome’s influence declined.
The ‘fact’ that ‘money’ should be the fetishistic token of choice in a contractarian/materialistic society, with its [strike]economists[/strike] priests expounding the myths of eternal progress and growth while metaphorically buggering the children (literally in terms of their future) in the inner temple should come as no surprise. This is the Religeo-onis, the ‘obligation’ forced upon us by the ruling elite.
True spirituality which all religion to some extent corrupts is an internal path; the closest ‘traditions’ to get to it were perhaps the Daoists with the ‘canonical’ statement to the effect of ‘the Dao that can be spoken is not the True Dao’, and the ‘Hopi Indians where the conflict between the sacred inner life and outward material development could not be more critical.
Its all happened before even if not on such a large scale:
Maybe Zerzan was right. The current civilisations ‘religion’ of purely material focus and gain that sees nature as something ‘nasty and brutish’ to be controlled and manipulated for the ‘true good’ of profit will, with the wholesale destruction of the environment lead inexorably to a ‘nasty and brutish’ end. The only option we have is to each individually re-make the connection with the Earth and re-birth our relationship with that which ultimately supports us and thereby to see the nakedness of all our Emperors.
– Aldo Leopold
From a window box to a field to a forest garden we can all start to make that re-connection right now, all it takes is that subtle recognition inside ourselves. 🙂
L,
Sid.
(‘Tae Summary’ will have a field day with this subject! :whistle: )gurusidParticipantHi Folks,
A last shout for those interested in giving feedback on how the site ‘looks and feels’ please go to this thread:
TAE 3.0: What do you want to see?
Thanks,
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Nassim,
Well its probably a case of all that can be said, has been said. I quite like their idea for an archive site:
We sincerely thank everyone who has been part of the TOD community – authors, staff and especially commenter’s and readers – for contributing to the success of the site. It is unusual for a site which is based primarily on volunteer effort to continue this long.
I think it will continue to be a great resource going forward.
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Folks,
James Kunstler’s latest podcaste – KunstlerCast 235 — Talking to petroleum geologist Jeffrey Brown – is well worth (pun intended!) checking out regarding the depletion rate of these ‘Fracked wells’. Its very much the Red Queen syndrome:
That and the fact that the Feds threat to ‘taper’ has caused mass panic in the commodities markets, which are underperforming anyways due to a mysterious lack of demand – i.e. lack of ‘growth’ :dry: :
Market fundamentals are also on shaky ground, with giant consumer China showing signs of economic cooling and the U.S. and European recovery still fragile. The supply-side dynamic has shifted from shortage to glut, with U.S. shale oil production booming and global grain inventories rebounding.”
It will probably drain all the ‘excess’ oil from all those ‘running to stand still’ drilling ops. Dave is right on that oil supply chart – it won’t look like that for long… :ohmy:
L,
Sid.Edit: Ha! I see Nassim beat me to it – by five minutes! Kudos… 😆
gurusidParticipantHi TAE Summary,
What happened to Panda Sharpshooter? Did he blow his brains out both barrels? Understandable given the current outlook… :whistle:
So what would you like to see?
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Folks,
For those interested in giving feedback on how the site ‘looks and feels’ please go to this thread:
TAE 3.0: What do you want to see?
Thanks,
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHI Folks,
One thing I think is worth mentioning is that we all need to become self actuating and not rely on others to provide all the solutions. There are many pundits and bloggers out there as has been mentioned, and they all have their own particular stance, as indeed we all have. However it is generally going to be a case of ‘hyper localism’ and working out what is best for your own situation. Its either that or hit the highway or the sea as in the case of Dmitri Orlov – there is no ‘one size fits all’ plan or solution. Its going to be about being flexible and adaptable, about being forgiving both of oneself and of others. Its also about sharing what you have found works for you (as I have done here and here.
Also examples such as The Power of Community while not perfect give a good indication of what is possible.
And of course most of the ‘future’ will not be in front of machines like this one that you are sat in front of now, reading this. So get out there and start digging or ‘not-digging’, mulching and forest gardening, insulating and ‘off-gridding’ and post your stories, discoveries trials and tribulations here to share with others while we still can.
That’s what I’d like to see…
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Folks,
On the comment on GMO being supported by the ‘Environment’ Minister, one should realise the scale of the propaganda. A recent study reported in the Guardian done at Caen University in France has caused controversy, not least the vitriolic backlash from supposedly impartial regulators. Even ‘scientifically neutral’ rag ““Nature” calls the study “Hyped”. Here’s the
Reuters news feed:EU panel says Caen study of Monsanto GM corn inadequate
By Charlie Dunmore
BRUSSELS | Thu Oct 4, 2012 5:42pm BST
(Reuters) – A French study linking a type of genetically modified corn to health risks in rats was of insufficient scientific quality to draw any conclusions on the safety of such crops, an initial review by the EU’s food safety watchdog has found.
Last month, researchers at the University of Caen said rats fed on Monsanto’s NK603 GM corn or exposed to its top-selling Roundup glyphosate weed killer were at higher risk of suffering tumors, multiple organ damage and premature death.
The study led Russia to temporarily ban imports of NK603, which can be found in internationally traded animal feed, and is designed to be grown in conjunction with use of glyphosate to control weeds.
France’s government said it would also ban imports if the findings are confirmed, but other experts have questioned the study’s methods and Monsanto said it felt confident its products had been proven safe.
“Considering that the study… has unclear study objectives and given its inadequate design, analysis and reporting, EFSA finds that it is of insufficient scientific quality for safety assessments,” the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) said in a statement on Thursday.
…
WATCHDOG CRITICISEDThe safety watchdog said it would ask the authors to provide full details of the study’s design and procedures, ahead of a final review due by the end of the month.
But the study’s lead author, Gilles-Eric Seralini, said he would only make further information publicly available if EFSA published all the data from its 2003 safety assessment of NK603, which concluded that it was as safe as non-GM corn.
“To play fair they can’t keep their data secret. The authorization of these products is based in our view on data and a methodology that are even more faulty,” he said.
Campaign group Friends of the Earth accused EFSA of putting the interests of biotech firms ahead of public safety concerns.
“For the past decade, EFSA has consistently sided with the biotech industry and disregarded health or environment concerns about genetically modified crops. Instead of picking holes in peer-reviewed research, they should take public concerns seriously,” said food campaigner Mute Schimpf.
Of course nobody asks the simple question, why not do more precise and careful studies? That would be the true scientific approach. But of course we live in a time of spin, pseudo science and technocracy. Which is why the right honourable (?) minister for the Environment knows what he is talking about, obviously. If he says they’re safer than conventional crops then by ‘golly they are! And how dare anyone question otherwise! :dry:
Russian roulette with the heads of others indeed… and hearts, minds, health in fact with the whole of the future of humanity. The banking ‘industry’ is just one part of the whole system, and the rot is systemic throughout. As I’ve commented before, if your value system is corrupted, or worse still is non-existent, then how can you know, ever, what you are doing? Whether it is right or wrong? Most people today are mad; they have the wrong set of values and insanely cling to them – status, power, control and wealth. These are not true values, these are objects of desire and greed. True values are about caring; they are about Love, Compassion, Beauty and Truth. And you cannot charge for them because they are free.
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Folks,
For those interested in giving feedback on how the site ‘looks and feels’ please go to this thread:
TAE 3.0: What do you want to see?
Thanks,
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Ilargi,
Corrected! Some wierd form of Dixlesyia… I take it you know how auspicious your name is?
L.
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Folks,
For those interested in giving feedback on how the site ‘looks and feels’ please go to this thread:
TAE 3.0: What do you want to see?
Thanks,
L,
Sid.June 27, 2013 at 3:09 pm in reply to: Nicole Foss – New Zealand And The End Of Economic Growth #7816gurusidParticipantHi Folks,
For those interested in giving feedback on how the site ‘looks and feels’ go to this thread:
TAE 3.0: What do you want to see?
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Folks,
For those interested in giving feedback on how the site ‘looks and feels’ please go to this thread:
TAE 3.0: What do you want to see?
Thanks,
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Folks,
For those interested in giving feedback on how the site ‘looks and feels’ please go to this thread:
TAE 3.0: What do you want to see?
Thanks,
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Ilargi,
Sheesh, sorry to hear about your health problems, I know from personal experience what a rough deal hip problems are – its the main joints in your body. Amazing that you have managed to keep this site running at all!
I was thinking of putting a few links to this page in the comments on some recent articles to let people who don’t normally hang out backstage that there is a ‘suggestions box’ for what they’d like to see – unless you think it would generate too much feedback – given your delicate health that might not be advisable right now – what thinks thee?
Hope you get well soon,
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Hard Rain,
Its like a Tsunami, at first the tide goes out, way out beyond its usual low tide mark. Then as it comes back in all hell breaks loose; check out this video for an example of classic ‘human’ behaviour (note: the animals had all left hours ago):
[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdwFWSWNt6o[/video]
“Do you think the earth quake affected the water?”
“Nah”…Its worth noting how people just do not understand what is happening, and do nothing, and also their ‘hubristic’ complacency. But then those that get it start to run to higher ground, and eventually all but the most stubborn follow as panic takes hold.
Metaphorically, in the face of the current debt Tsunami, 2008 was the earth quake and events since have been equivalent to the tide going out. All the measures since have been to try and get the grounded ‘boats’ afloat again, not realising what is on the horizon is going to trash everything anyway. Looking at current events I’d say its on its way back in, the whole QE question for instance, is it on or off? And Japan’s hopeless ‘Abenomics’ disaster.
The ‘Reason’ is simply too much debt that can never, ever, be paid back. But like all that water it has to go somewhere, and that will metaphorically again flood everything that floats or sits on the financial shoreline, where all the fishing for profit is done. Many things financial will become worthless, some will lose all or most of their value. Only hard goods that have Real Value will have any, well you know, ‘value’. Of course there will no doubt be scams and attempted ponzis in the process, but eventually everything will be marked to market. :dry:
So time to get away from the beach and head for higher ground.
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Folks,
If anyone doubts that the ‘parents’ did not have a choice, they should take a look at this by Tim ‘Mac’ Macartney ‘A Line in the Sand’:
[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEssxCSlItw&feature=share[/video]
Its not all up to the young people!
And as for the children:
[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JchSac-VP0[/video]
On the ‘Children’s Fire’ –
“No law, no power of any kind shall be allowed to harm the children!”
The fact is that
“…we have pissed on the children’s fire”.
Why am I here? Is a question that we should all ask ourselves often. Many do not know, this is why they do not know what they are doing. What do you value? What has real value and not just a price? People horde money and possessions, thinking they have value. This happens because they do not know what they are doing. They allow a thousand women and children to die in a building collapse in India to save a few pennies on clothes. Do you think that would happen if they knew what they were doing?
If your value system is corrupted, or worse still is non-existent, then how can you know, ever, what you are doing? Whether it is right or wrong? Most people today are mad; they have the wrong set of values and insanely cling to them – status, power, control and wealth. These are not true values, these are objects of desire and greed. True values are about caring; they are about Love, Compassion, Beauty and Truth. And you cannot charge for them because they are free.
We have a simple choice. Chose to live the right way to live upon this earth, or chose to die.
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Nassim,
Yes but:
not only is the stimulus fungible but it means all global leverage is ‘shared’
:dry:
As for having something in metals, yes of course, but the way things are going I see the biggest thing in metals will be ‘tin foil hats’! 😆
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi GO,
That’s why there are Gold bugs who seek the precious metal for refuge. Most deflation minded types shun Gold as they consider the fiat explosion to be real, or physical, rather than bankster folly and trickery.
Still, there’s life yet in the last ponzi on earth! :dry:
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi folks,
Not that its anything new…
Summarizing The Known Rigged Markets
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/12/2013 09:35 -0400Following last night’s revelation that FX trading is the latest addition to the “rigged” column, here is a summary of the known market manipulation scandals (because it can be problematic keeping track of all by now):
Libor – interest rates (link)
ISDAfix – swaps (link)
Platts – oil prices (link)
WM/Reuters – FX (link)
High-Frequency Trading – equities (link)We also know that the Fed and world central banks are engaged in a full blown (and unprecedented) Treasury curve modeling exercise courtesy of both ZIRP (short-end) and QE (long-end), and that courtesy of some $12 trillion in extra liquidity in the past 5 years, stocks are at an artificial “wealth effect” sugar high.
We can therefore deduce that, following the process of elimination, gold and silver are the only markets that are unmanipulated and where transparent price discovery is allowed to take place without intervention from key players.
Sarcasm off.
So much for all those ‘gold bugs’ thinking there is even such a thing as a ‘free market’…
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Illarghi,
As was suggested earlier (comment above):
The Painful Side Of Japan’s “Growth Strategy”
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/10/2013 13:43 -0400“Following last night’s ‘surprising’ upward GDP revisions, Japan’s trade balance plunged to near-record deficit levels (but that didn’t matter) and while China’s trade data is questionable at best (and now proven ‘false’), Japan is facing a much more considerable worry at home. Abenomics’ goal to reduce the value of the JPY to improve competitiveness and spur a renaissance has had a rather nasty side-effect for all the Japanese people who eat, drive, or in any way use energy. The cost of Japan’s crude basket has risen 35% in the last six months and is now at its highest for the domestic energy user since 2008 (which sparked the last collapse into deflation). As Bloomberg notes in this brief clip, this surge is not related to demand or the price of oil, but to the devaluation of the Japanese currency and leaves both the refiner crushed on margins and the consumer more cash-strapped.”
(bold in orig)
…”more cash strapped” = more deflation.
What bit of TINWO (There Is No Way Out) do they not understand? Karmic payback for the TINA (There Is No Alternative) days?… :dry:
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi V81,
Actually there are plenty of places already at or near to what it may look like:
The main thing is it will not look like a Hollywood movie. Thus mad maxian contradictions aside (an apocalyptic road movie? Think very carefully about that whole premise – just how far does your ‘vehicle’ get on a gallon of gas?), after a bit of unrest and rioting/looting, once the hunger sets in most of the ‘rougher’ elements having looted the bling will have been either cowed into submission by starvation/thirst or (the smarter ones such as the drug dealers) will have organised themselves into the new black market mafioso. Drink, drugs and antisocial behaviour will suddenly become the extreme liabilities that they historically always were having only recently been papered over by a benign and forgiving welfare system, as supplies of everything dry up and people will be thrown together into situations in which they will have to co-operate to survive or perish. Martial Laws with ‘shoot on sight’ rules of engagement will quickly thinout any trouble makers.
As Dmitri Orlov (he had insider info on the Soviet ‘collapse’) points out;
Note that the exercise carries a high human cost: without an economy, many people suddenly find themselves as helpless as newborn babes. Many of them die, sooner than they would otherwise: some would call this a “die-off.” There is a part of the population that is most vulnerable: the young, the old, and the infirm; the foolish and the suicidal. There is also another part of the population that can survive indefinitely on insects and tree bark. Most people fall somewhere in between.
To be honest it could all end up looking like anything from a Dad’s Army style civilian defence core to the current Syrian crisis only without the UN, but that’s the problem with uncertainty… :unsure:
Edit: actually this extraenvironmentalist pod caste is worth an ear if you have one to spare! Especially about 18mins in about alternative experiments in living vs. neo-fuedal Orwellianism… :whistle:
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi V81,
The thing is, is if TSHF big stylee what use is any of this cash going to be? As Dmitir Orlov succinctly puts it in one of his posts:
Friday, April 01, 2011
Financial TotalitarianismA particularly annoying question I am often asked and have come to hate is: “How do I invest my money for it to survive financial, political and commercial collapse?” The short answer is: “Nohow. Money will not survive collapse; not yours, not anyone else’s.” But that answer is not acceptable, because accepting it would require a profound loss of faith—faith in money, a profound Götterdämmerung for a civilization based on the worship of money.
You would be far better off spending it now to at least build some sort of resilience: move to a property with some land, learn how to grow food/raise livestock, get the property as low maintenance as possible in terms of needing heat and power by for instance super insulating and fitting things like solar hot water and standalone PV with battery storage. Build up a local network of both knowledge (like R.J.Garner’s The Grafters Handbook) and knowledgeable people who are aware of the score. All this takes money, and is in my view money well spent (if you have it). If you’re still into vaults then build your own in the basement to protect these things, along with a good supply of vodka, that again as Dmitri shows supplants cash as legal tender – or Jack Daniels. Keep it quite too, or you might need an AK47 to defend it.
But the best course of action is to get out of the money delusion and find yourself another measure of value, this will prepare you psychologically before its too late…
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Illarghi,
Also, as those with mortgages know only too well, you ‘repay’ the interest first before repaying the principle. This works well for [strike]loan sharks[/strike] mortgage lenders as any future increase in interest rate is always levied upon the largest possible remaining principle. Flexible mortgages where you can pay off the principle early can save you very large sums of money further down the line, and you see a good drop in your monthly repayments.
However on a broader note, the whole concept of indebted slavery is to provide the leverage to get the population to continue using all those resources. After all if people had money and then just bought what they needed (advertising aside) they would have no need to work for more. Where as if you make sure no one has any money whatsoever, and that everything is ‘loaned’ to them, then they end up on a continual treadmill having to ‘work’ to ‘pay’ everything off. ‘Hire purchase’ was the biggest con of all post WWII – by the time you had ‘purchased’ the item, you more often than not needed another one to replace it they should have just called it ‘hire borrow’ or something.
As for ‘compound interest’ being responsible for modern civilisation, well the guy looks like a maths geek who just walked off the set of the Big Bang Theory. Though he does have a good take on Apple’s [strike]love[/strike] of taxes Besides, as far as compounding goes Red Dwarf did it way back when:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEu0o62ycmg 😆
Besides, the whole compound thing is all part of the ‘exponential civilisation’ (you heard it first here!): the Exponential Civilisation produced compound interest, not the other way round. :huh:
Al Bartlett explains all:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSYL,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Illarghi,
Even the UK blows another real estate bubble. Have you looked at your numbers at all recently, guys? Really, a housing recovery?
Its all ‘funny money’ buying in London, with retiring boomers selling out big time to buy in the ‘counties and shires. Otherwise its Poundland:
in Liverpool, Stoke-On-Trent and Kensington (sorry had to tease you there its Liverpool – again, not London.)
Run down Briton, coming to an ex-industrial city near you – cue Coronation Street titles:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=b299-MuAWO4&feature=endscreen
Of course we Brits never do anything by halves, having a psychotic obsession with house prices helped with government [strike]debt slave[/strike] loan schemes. Just wait till interest rates wobble… :dry:
Still, somewhere to put your pension pot I suppose:
More workers approaching retirement are considering a buy-to-let property to supplement their income.
The number of buy-to-let mortgages has increased by nearly 50% since 2007, with rental yields consistently beating inflation.
Meanwhile, annuity rates have dropped to record lows and savings pay a pittance.
…The arguments against
What people frequently forget when they look at buy-to-let property is the scale of the risks.
Buy-to-let isn’t about buying somewhere you want to live, it’s about making the most cash from your money. And it’s an expensive way to do it.
Think of it this way: You’re taking out a very large loan that accrues interest to buy something that then requires more money every year to maintain (either in letting agency fees, insurance, maintenance costs or advertising for tenants), with an uncertain income stream (it might not be let the whole time, after all) with no diversification.
etc. Yeah, like that’s going to stop the grandlords…
Update:
Ha, talk about synchronicity. Last night on News Night the veritable Jeremy Paxman grilled his guests who were variously a representative of the building industry, an MP and a worried person (investment consultant). Apparently the new government loan scheme to help [strike]boost the house builders pockets[/strike] the housing shortage will be available to foreign investors. So that’s right, to keep ‘ole blighty afloat they are handing our ‘tax payers money’ (JP’s words) to anyone including ‘foreigners’. building rep man has smug grin as JP says this money goes to him, while he says people need to focus on housing to live in and not to speculate on. Meanwhile worried person mentioned first time buyers saddled with both private and gov’t debt sitting in (sharp intake of breath) negative equity! MP was obviously covering for the fact that they know if the housing market crashes so do the banks and with it what remains of the economy – negative equity works both ways apparently. The government ‘loan’ for 20% has a clause saying you cannot sublet – like that’s going to stop them. :unsure:Next up was a discussion on benefits with a new threesome for JP to grill, especially the ballooning housing benefits (tax payers money) for rocketing rent going to private landlords (same people buying the houses in the ring a ring a roses – sneeze and yer dead housing ‘market’). Amongst the banter the term ‘rent cap’ was heard. Along with ‘rent controls’ and other coded words for ‘well what do you expect when you ‘privatise’ the ‘housing market’ leaving it open to ‘unbridled capitalism’… 😆 (remember the UK has always had trouble housing the serfs) 🙁
Rent controls? Still want that London penthouse to let now Mr Global Investor? :dry:
L,
Sid.gurusidParticipantHi Folks,
Sadly you just can’t make this sh*t up:
“Recent price action amid the heavily shorted solar stocks has seemingly been predicated on hope that late May chatter of negotiated settlements in the industry would occur and everyone could go happily about their business. While hope remains for a settlement – and tariffs have been delayed 2 months, as the WSJ reports – the EU is set to announce drastic anti-dumping levies on Chinese solar panels in a move that could trigger a trade war between two of the world’s largest economies:
*EU SAYS SOLAR-PANEL DUTY TO START AT 11% ON JUNE 6
*EU SAYS SOLAR-PANEL DUTY TO RISE TO 47.6% IN AUGUST
*EU’S DE GUCHT SAYS NOT CLOSE TO SOLAR-PANEL PACT WITH CHINASadly this is playing out very similarly to the Great Depression period as tariffs and protectionism replaced domestic focused fiscal and monetary policy and escalated problems rapidly. China rejects the EU’s price-dumping allegations, but the problem is not new for Beijing. The U.S. last year imposed punitive tariffs on solar panel imports after finding that China’s government was subsidizing companies that were flooding the U.S. Market.”
Oh well, so much for cheap solar, now meet the Realpolitik…
L,
Sid. -
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