28-1-2026 One Child

I have posted three of my recent podcasts at the end of this article, but if you only have time to watch one ignore me and focus on the fourth video… It is Danny Davis interviewing the retired Royal Navy Commodore, Steve Jeremy. Jeremy describes in precise detail the problems and challenges the US Navy will face if it is parked near Iran’s southern border when Donald Trump gives the order to attack Iran. Regarding my podcasts, you may want to checkout my conversation with the esteemed Sergei Karaganov.

So let’s look at the three guided-missile destroyers that are accompanying the USS Abraham Lincoln. Reliable open-source reports from USNI News, The War Zone, Zona Militar, and other defense outlets (dated January 26–29, 2026) consistently identify the following Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers as the primary escorts accompanying the carrier:

USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. (DDG-121) — Often noted as the Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) commander for the group.
USS Spruance (DDG-111)
USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112)
These three destroyers form the core surface escort force, providing air defense, anti-submarine warfare, anti-surface warfare, and strike capabilities (via Tomahawk missiles and other weapons in their Mk 41 VLS cells).

Typical air defense missile loadout (examples from recent analyses and deployments):

Often 40–70+ dedicated air defense missiles (SM-2/SM-6/ESSM combined), depending on priorities.
Common mixes: 30–50 SM-2/SM-6 + 16–64 ESSM (ESSM quad-packed for higher numbers in point defense).
Example high-air-defense load: ~48 SM-2 + 16 SM-6 + 64 ESSM (total ~128 air defense missiles via quad-packing).
In practice, many cells are allocated to Tomahawks or other munitions, so pure air defense counts are lower (e.g., 50–100 effective interceptors per ship in a carrier strike group context).
It is the last bullet that creates some major vulnerability for the carrier strike group… The destroyers are equipped with VLS cells. VLS cell stands for Vertical Launching System cell, a modular compartment in naval missile launchers like the Mk 41 VLS that houses one or more pre-loaded missiles vertically below deck. As noted in the last bullet, these cells are also used to launch Tomahawk cruise missiles, which is likely to be one of the weapons fired at Iran. These means that the air defense capability of the USN destroyers will be reduced in order to accommodate the Tomahawks.

If Iran decides to fire 300 drones in a swarm attack on the carrier strike force, and each destroyer fires at least two air defense missiles at those drones, that would require 600 air defense missiles. And there is the problem… If each destroyer is carrying a load of Tomahawks, then they are only carrying a maximum of 100 interceptors. Not only will the destroyers not have enough interceptors to fend-off the attacking Iranian drones, they will deplete their missile stock.

The only way to reload these cells is that each destroyer must sail to a port equipped with cranes that are capable of reloading the VLS cells.The closest port — I am assuming that the port in Bahrain is not available because Iran will have closed the Strait of Hormuz — is in Diego Garcia, which is 3 to 4 days away if each USN ship is traveling at 25 knots.

Iran has five classes of drones that can fly at least 1,000 kilometers, which means that the US carrier strike group will face an increased risk of drone attacks if it sails closer than 1,000 kilometers from Iran’s southern shore. If it stays outside the 1,000 kilometer range, the US carrier task force capability to hit critical targets in Iran will be very limited because the maximum range of a US Tomahawk cruise missile is 1,600 kilometers. In short, if Iran fires hundreds of missiles and drones at the US carrier task force the US will not be able to sustain combat operations for more than a couple of days.