Debt Rattle August 17 2025
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William Schryver, all the credit due except where he quotes Vlad Putin or Trump and Tuckersoncarl
Sorry miker and D, Will provided no video…Ritter!
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Trump rolled into town with his “stealth” flyover, imagining he was the one giving an audience to Putin.
From start to finish it was perfectly evident to any discerning observer that it was just the opposite, and that Putin was there to repeat and to emphasize Russia’s apparently inviolable terms.
As I understand it, the Russians have said they will implement a conditional temporary ceasefire in the south while NATO/AFU forces withdraw from Donetsk.
No one has said anything about ending the Special Military Operation, nor of the disposition of territories.
In essence, the Russians are saying:
“We’ll temporarily stop destroying you on the southern part of the line of contact while you retreat from the northern part, and then we’ll demand you also withdraw from the southern part, and lay down your arms.”
I cannot understand how so many people seem to doubt the resolve of the Russians to continue fighting western forces for years to come pursuant to their clearly enunciated objectives.
In each successive year of this war, Russian strength has augmented across the spectrum. Russia is not only outproducing the combined west by several multiples, but their military hardware is now indisputably superior in most key categories.
The only exit route for the US/NATO is capitulation, which in this instance entails withdrawing NATO military presence to the 1997 borders, as stipulated in the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997.
disingenuous people in the west who continue to misrepresent them:
“We offered them an early out, and they rejected it in favor of an appeal to arms in order to inflict what they imagined would be a severe strategic defeat against Russia on the field of battle. But their reach greatly exceeded their grasp. They cannot defeat us. Now let them seek a delicate exit from the mess they’ve gotten themselves into — but we will achieve our objectives.”
No matter how the would-be masters of empire try to spin defeat into victory, most everyone around the world will still know the score. And it is this disabused illusion of imperial military supremacy that will rapidly accelerate its inexorable decline.
Trump the peace president? He can stop the Gaza killings today without any third-party agreement, but doesn’t, he could have avoided the war on Iran, but didn’t, in his first term he could have stopped the rearming of Ukraine ready for the war on Russia, but didn’t, now he has spoken to Putin about Ukraine, suddenly he is the peace president? Even a toddler’s thinking is not this stupid.
The shit-fest that is America. Always judge a country by how they treat their least powerful. Israel and the USA are in the same sad category not only of don’t give a fuck about them, but also of actively making their lives more depraved and meaningless.
Zerosum on Trump. Yup. And you can give charitable or ugly interpretations of all those acts about cutting Ukraine as a loss. I tend to be generous, but that’s because of my personality, not that I feel the basest description wouldn’t be accurate.
He has to throw bones to the MICMAC, because they are America’s largest lobby. That’s Realpolitick until they are cut down and back on a leash, etc. Deal with it or we’re all dead. He can’t take on all Israel at the same time, a lobby almost as large. He has to throw them stuff and double-cross them.
All of them he has to deceive, so he threatens invisible subs and makes all kinds of average EU talking points leading into the Summit, about how he’ll probably just about pull sanctions and demand a ceasefire. It’s a lie bc he knows that’s impossible, but Europe is still bat s—t insane far from that reality. This allows the Summit to occur without everyone on planet piling in to hate him and disrupt it. When he changes from 50 days to 8 days every 5 minutes, From Ze to no, Ceasefire definite to final peace that takes months, he’s only doing what is POSSIBLE.
Everyone is like ‘He surrendered,” whatever emotional charge gets their rocks off that minute. In fact, he just arranged to have a Peace that wasn’t happening, did it fast without a firefight, and moved the world expectations to accept what will happen anyway.
This is true all over, like DOGE. He DID it, which is a miracle, but the fact is, he still needs Congress for most of it, and they won’t, he has to slap them senseless into submission. So he arranges that “Narrative” to get done. Will it? Who knows but a minute ago no one was even TRYING, and USAID was funding arson and riots nationwide.
Did it win? No, not yet. But he still moved the ball further than anyone in 50 years and about 3x as far as any of us expected he could. What can I say? That’s if it’s POSSIBLE. You’re asking the impossible, I guess.
So you’re projecting do you have TDS, or Trump Messiah Syndrome? Nothing to do with Trump or reality at all.
I’d rather focus on what’s real without injecting myself.Can I see how to crawl out of the thousand holes saboteurs drilled in the ship? No. There are too many, it’s all theory. But I can use the overall map to crawl out of MY hole. That’s not abstract.
Since it’s Kult: Are “they” Socialists? No. They SAY they are and use that framework to get idiots to make policies and actions that empower a tiny oligarchic elite at the top. …Same as the Soviet days, not different. Komrade Stalin had Caviar, shoes, private jets. But We have to call them something and we’re usually talking about the sub-elite, Idiot-on-down level who do, literally say they’re Socialists and literally believe that s—t after 170 years of total failure.
Does, eg, AOC believe it? Not sure, good example of the problem. Probably, but she’s a self-serving psychopath who does whatever serves AOC. She thinks she’s getting one over on “Socialism” when really everyone else at her level is also faking and doing the same. The foot soldiers actually believe. The people above her realize other people are faking and it’s all s—t. So that’s the messy map, in my estimation.
…Of course the “Capitalists” don’t believe it either. Hoover wrote on that, and it wasn’t new even in 1921. Just that today, all of the “Capitalists” claim to be Core, Marching Socialists, really, like Zuck, etc. Nike puts out Socialists Ad, t shirts, and shoes. For some reason people find this plausible that Amazon’s core values are Socialist and we should all support Apple in college before we march for Gaza.
I pop up and say “This sounds like bulls—t” and take a face full of non-stop friendly fire. They’re still shooting at me today. Saying “What about wages” is something Nike and Google say we shouldn’t do, only the Right-Wing talks about that. Yes, it’s a weird world, now completely unmoored. But yes, all CEO and major corporations claim to be Socialists ackshully. W.T.F.
NEITHER ARE. Capitalists cheat and stop competition anywhere they can, Socialists screw the people and sop up money wherever they can. But I have to use words, when all their means have been
changedderanged.Aspnaz: Yup and China helps as much as they can, keeping Gaza dying. Every middle eastern nation does nothing, won’t lift a finger except Yemen, who is a bunch of hillbillies with 20 Toyotas. But only the U.S. is required to do something.
We are, all the budgets are dropping and we’re leaving the Empire. But that takes time. In the meantime, ask your pal Xi to act. Why not Taiwan? Indonesia has no men? They’re the largest Muslim nation on the planet. Nope, there is only ONE country, the U.S. and we are responsible for everything.
Everyone else sits in cafes, drinks tea and complains “Why aren’t we bombing the RIGHT people for them”.
As above, Ukraine, Egypticus (?) wrote on the ocean of ink spilled this week on WHY the U.S> won’t kill themselves to hand Russia to Europe, after all Europe has no power at all, no army, no leverage, and didn’t lift a finger, even now. Why oh why won’t russia just appear in our freezer, all butchered and wrapped in white paper when we TOLD the U.S. that’s what we wanted for Christmas and put lipstick on our pig lips?
Yes, Europe is ESPECIALLY deranged thinking you can order things around and do them with no action and no power, but so is the rest of the planet. As saying WE, and only WE are required and responsible, when TURKEY NOW BORDERS ISRAEL and has Europe’s largest Army, yet does nothing about Gaza. That’s okay. They’re not responsible, right? Only ONE nation with an army is responsible.
“Lindsey Graham threatens bill designating Russia state sponsor of terror over kidnapping of Ukrainian children“
https://tass.com/politics/1976451
The “list” given to Russia re. Ukraine of missing children:We have also started substantive work on the list of 339 Ukrainian children. Let me remind you – not stolen, not kidnapped, not forcibly displaced or taken away, whatever they [in Kiev] come up with – but those who cannot be reunited with their parents, who are being searched for, and about whom there is no information,” she said.
“It is a tragedy, but unfortunately, such tragedies occur in many countries and cities, including very prosperous ones. So, it is not surprising for a region that has been under fire from the Kiev regime for so many years – since 2014,” Zakharova concluded.
All those people who have made up their minds on the “facts” and anything I might say will not change their opinion/minds.
Gaza gets the hard, hot weaponry, bombs and bullets. We get the slow, cold kill, vaccinations, chemtrails, poisoned food and water, 5G. Welcome to jeworld, it ain’t pretty.
WES,
I think what you say is mostly right, but I think a little off.
You are absolutely right that savers are getting screwed. You are right that the US wants to suppress interest rates. However, my understanding is that Fed is not actively selling the long term bonds on its balance sheet. Rather, a massive amount of long term bonds are expiring this year, and the Treasury is refinancing with short term bills rather than long term bonds. The Treasury would like to refinance, but not at these high rates. That is why they tried to crash the market with the tariff tantrum in April — in hopes that the stock market correction would bring down interest rates — but that did not happen. The adminsitration is also pressuring the Fed to cut rates. The Fed can do that at the short end (i.e. T-bills), but it is harder to do that at the long end (i.e. 30 year bonds). When they tried last September, long term bond rates actually went up. Even if the Fed starts cutting again, there is no assurance that long term rates will come down. They might even go up. And for good reason. Who wants to hold 30 year bonds with the deficit/debt out of control? The markets need government debt because it serves a key role as collateral in the financial system, but there is high demand for short term debt, and diminishing demand for long term debt. The Fed can try to manipulate this with yield curve control, but that will require new QE.
This is why the traditional 60-40 portfolio is slowly dying. The 40% previously allocated to bonds will now be allocated to a combination of gold and Bitcoin. That’s what Hartnett just recommended yesterday (lead article on Zero Hedge). It’s what other outside-the-mainstream forward-looking analysts like Luke Groman, Jordi Visser, Lyn Alden and Darius Dale have been recommending for a long time.
If you are a saver, you can avoid getting screwed if you save in hard money — gold or Bitcoin, or a combination of both.
Boogaloo:
The Fed wants to sell it’s long term debt into the market.
To avoid upsetting the long term bond market, while the Fed sells it’s long term bonds, the Treasury is going to temporarily reduce the amount of new long term bonds it issues to the market.At the same time, the Treasury is temporarily going to increase the amount of short term T – Bills it issues, so the Fed can buy more short term T – Bills.
The assumption that the Fed has a large amount of long term bonds maturing this year is largely incorrect.
I think the Fed has over $6 trillion in various durations of debt, ranging from short term to long term debt holdings.This amount is large enough to affect the debt markets, if not done carefully.
Note the Treasury and Fed are telling the debt market ahead of time, what it is doing, so as to not upset the debt markets.
Boogaloo said
If you are a saver, you can avoid getting screwed if you save in hard money — gold or Bitcoin, or a combination of both.
Bitcoin is “hard money”? You are an idiot.
aspnaz:
I will admit, I can’t quite get my mind wrapped around Bitcoin as an investment.
But some people have done very well with Bitcoin.I was aware of Bitcoin back in the early 2000s, but ignored it.
However, if I had even bought say $1,000 of Bitcoin as a lark then, today I would be very rich, as in $100 million plus.
I know of no other investment (gamble) that would have paid off like Bitcoin has.
As to Bitcoin’s future?
Who knows?WES,
I said Fed where I should have said Treasury. Between $7 Trillion and $9 Trillion of US debt securities need to be refinanced this year. Much of that debt started out as long term debt, but cannot be refinanced as long term debt, at least not sustainably at present rates.
aspnaz,
If I am an idiot in saying that Bitcoin is hard money, I have good company. If you don’t want to take my word for it, consider Lawrence Lepard’s new book The Big Print or Lyn Alden’s book Broken Money. Lawrence Lepard was a mainstream gold bug who also discovered Bitcoin. Lyn Alden is a respected macro commentator who has written a lucid history of money, explaining how the gold based system evolved into private legder money and is now evolving into public ledger digital money. But even if you still reject Bitcoin, the point still stands that you can protect yourself as a saver if you save in a hard currency like gold. It’s not the hardest money, but it is a much better choice than government bonds or cash. Good luck to you!
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