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Debt Rattle May 14 2026

May 142026
 
 May 14, 2026  Posted by at 10:00 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  Add comments


Nicolai Dubovskov Hushing (Calm Before the Storm) 1890


• Bessent’s “Suffocating” Iranian Regime Strategy Materializes (ZH)
• Trump, Xi, and the Taiwan Test (David Manney)
• Trump Must Look Over His Shoulder for the Rest of His Life (Athena Thorne)
• Zelensky’s Alleged Cocaine Use ‘An Open Secret’ – Former Spokeswoman (RT)
• Zelensky’s ex-Spokeswoman Added To State-linked ‘Kill List’ (RT)
• ‘Zelensky Thrives On War, Why Would He End It?’: Former Press Secretary (RT)
• Biden FBI Secretly Set Up Trump To Be Indicted After He Leaves Office (JTN)
• EU Targets France’s Jordan Bardella As His Anti-Migration Party Surges (RMX)
• Von der Leyen’s Power Grab Angers EU Officials – Bloomberg (RT)
• Kathy Hochul Caves to Mamdani, Will Bail Out Socialist NYC (Margolis)
• CIA Went Rogue, Raided Tulsi’s Office to Seize Papers (Catherine Salgado)
• No, The CIA Did Not Raid DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s Office (CTH)
• Datacenters, The AI Race and American Politics (CTH)
• Marc Elias Raises Power to Eliminate the Virginia Government (Turley)

 


 

 


 


Not much mews this morning, from either Iran or China. Not for public consumption.

• Bessent’s “Suffocating” Iranian Regime Strategy Materializes (ZH)

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s description of “suffocating” the Iranian regime through economic and financial pressure, whether via sanctions or the US military blockade of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint, now appears to be showing up in the data. New geospatial intelligence indicates that Iran’s main crude export terminal has gone quiet, while a separate report suggests seaborne oil exports have effectively been halted for the past month.


The first report comes from Bloomberg, which cited European satellite imagery showing a massive bottleneck developing at Iran’s energy complex: no ocean-going tankers at Kharg Island, the country’s main export terminal, on May 8, 9, and 11. This marks the longest stretch in no crude tanker loadings since the US-Iran conflict began nearly three months ago.

Iran continued loading crude throughout the early weeks of the war, using tankers as floating storage after the US Navy effectively blocked ships from exiting the Hormuz chokepoint in mid-April, creating a massive energy bottleneck for Tehran. bAt the end of last week, we reported that a massive oil leak spanning dozens of square miles of water was spotted off Kharg Island. This was based on open-source satellite imagery.”The slick appears visually consistent with oil,” said Leon Moreland, a researcher at the Conflict and Environment Observatory, to Reuters. He believes it covers an area of approximately 45 square km (nearly 18 sq miles).

While it’s unclear what may have caused it, or the extent of possible damage to Kharg Island’s infrastructure or possibly docked tankers, the island has been attacked by US aerial forces in the recent past.If Kharg Island remains idle and storage capacity reaches its limit, Iran could be forced into deeper oil production cuts.”To our best knowledge, Iran hasn’t successfully exported any crude oil by sea over the past 28 days. Some refined products managed to escape because US OFAC did not slap sanctions on those tankers,” research firm Tanker Trackers wrote on X.

This very development would support Bessent’s claims: “We are running a marathon over the past 12 months, and now we are sprinting toward the finish. They are not able to pay their soldiers. This is a real economic blockade.”Ten days ago, Bessent forecasted that Iran’s oil industry may need to start shutting in wells “in the next week” as the country’s crude storage is “rapidly filling up.””Their oil infrastructure is starting to creak,” he said. “It hasn’t been maintained again because of our decades-long sanctions against them.”

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“..which claims Taiwan as its territory despite never having ruled it for even a day.”

• Trump, Xi, and the Taiwan Test (David Manney)

President Donald Trump’s trip to China places Taiwan back where Beijing always wants it: under pressure, under scrutiny, and under threat. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te isn’t watching this meeting like a man checking diplomatic weather; he’s watching it like the leader of a free island that China keeps trying to isolate, intimidate, and eventually absorb. China’s leaders understand ceremony, leverage, and timing. They also smell weakness when there’s blood in the water, which is why I vividly remember the 2021 Alaska meeting and how it hangs around this story like smoke in a conference room.


You remember that Anchorage meeting, right? When Antony Blinken, then secretary of state, and Jake Sullivan, then national security advisor, sat across from Yang Jiechi, then China’s top foreign policy official, and Wang Yi, then China’s foreign minister and state councilor. China’s opening remarks turned into a public scolding, and the Biden team looked stunned as Beijing delivered a lecture in front of the cameras. Reading the archives is downright infuriating.

DIRECTOR YANG: On the eve of the Chinese Lunar New Year, President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden had a phone conversation. The two presidents agreed to step up communication, manage differences, and expand cooperation between our two countries. We are having this dialogue today to follow up on the common understanding of the two presidents reached during their phone conversation. And having this dialogue is, in fact, a decision made by the two presidents. So for the people of the two countries and the world, they’re hoping to see practical outcomes coming out of our dialogue.

And with Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan, they are an inalienable part of China’s territory. China is firmly opposed to U.S. interference in China’s internal affairs. We have expressed our staunch opposition to such interference and we will take firm actions in response.

On human rights, we hope that the United States will do better on human rights. China has made steady progress in human rights and the fact is that there are many problems within the United States regarding human rights, which is admitted by the U.S. itself as well. The United States has also said that countries can’t rely on force in today’s world to resolve the challenges we face. And it is a failure to use various means to topple the so-called “authoritarian” states. And the challenges facing the United States in human rights are deep-seated. They did not just emerge over the past four years, such as Black Lives Matter. It did not come up only recently. So we do hope that for our two countries, it’s important that we manage our respective affairs well instead of deflecting the blame on somebody else in this world.

Nobody should pretend one meeting defines an entire foreign policy, but bad first impressions travel far in adversarial capitals. Beijing learned something from that day, or at least thought it did. Trump isn’t walking into that room as a president trying to prove he belongs on the world stage. Xi Jinping, China’s president and general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, knows that. Beijing may still test him, because testing American presidents ranks somewhere between doctrine and habit in Chinese statecraft.

The question is whether Xi believes Trump wants a public deal so badly that Taiwan becomes a bargaining chip. Taiwan has reason to care because every vague sentence, every pause, and every carefully softened word echoes across the Taiwan Strait. Calling Taiwan “Taiwan” doesn’t insult China by itself; American officials use its name constantly because the United States maintains unofficial relations with Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act while recognizing Beijing as China’s government. As Fox News reports, there’s a great deal of speculation involved in this meeting.

The de facto independent nation of 23 million people has spent decades living under threat from the Chinese Communist Party, which claims Taiwan as its territory despite never having ruled it for even a day. Observers here warn that Xi may try to offer Trump a deal: cooperation on tariffs, fentanyl, U.S. business access, or global flashpoints like Iran and Ukraine in exchange for Trump accepting a larger Chinese role in Taiwan’s future. Taiwan’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Francois Wu recently told Bloomberg News, “What we are the most afraid is to put Taiwan on the menu of the talk between Xi Jinping and President Trump.”

Huang Kwei-bo, a professor in National Chengchi University’s Department of Diplomacy, told Fox News Digital that Taiwan shouldn’t assume nothing will change. “Taiwan shouldn’t rule out the possibility that the United States and mainland China could reach an understanding behind the scenes, agreeing to reduce arms sales to Taiwan, or become less active in helping us meaningfully participate in international space,” he said. Beijing objects when language treats Taiwan as a separate sovereign state or moves toward formal recognition. China’s government insists Taiwan belongs to China, while the U.S. has long maintained a deliberately careful policy built around the Taiwan Relations Act, the three Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances.

Taiwan lives inside that careful wording every day.

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Trump indicated he knows this, by saying (paraphrased)” “I know life.”

• Trump Must Look Over His Shoulder for the Rest of His Life (Athena Thorne)

History is rife with examples of tyrannical movements that never end their hunt for their ideological enemies.b In 1989, Iran’s then-Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, issued a fatwa against The Satanic Verses author Salman Rushdie. Rushdie was forced to remain under police protection or in hiding after that. Thirty-three years later, when he thought he could safely give an academic lecture in the United States, a 24-year-old fanatic nearly killed him in a knife attack, costing him the use of an eye and a hand. It’s noteworthy that the assailant was born almost a decade after the fatwa was declared.


In 1917, it wasn’t enough that the Bolsheviks had killed the Czar and his entire family and most of the Whites and had all of Russia under their control. The Soviet secret police sent hit squads after those who had fled abroad, disrupting their communities and killing their leaders. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to this day actively tracks and targets its citizens abroad, who have fled its authoritarian government, as part of its extensive policy of transnational repression. You get the idea: There is not enough time or distance to dissuade hateful ideologues from devoting themselves to the destruction of their perceived enemies.

Thus, the blinding pathological hatred the left has cultivated against Donald Trump will not simply dissipate once the man retires from office. So long as he lives, they will try to jail, bankrupt, destroy, and/or literally murder him. In some of the historical cases I cited above, it is true that just because someone is out of a leadership position, that doesn’t mean he is no longer a threat to the opposition. Barack Obama comes readily to mind as an example of someone who continues to work behind the scenes against our duly elected present-day leadership. But in Trump’s situation, it wouldn’t matter if he fully retired to Mar-a-Lago and spent his remaining years painting stones and seashells and displaying them on Lucite stands or something equally as innocuous. The leftists’ burning, seething, pathological hatred of the man himself will never abate.

They 100% will prosecute him again. Right now, every minute of every day, operatives within and around the federal and blue states’ governments are building cases and preserving — maybe even manufacturing — “evidence” for the zealous lawfare to come. In just one example, Just the News obtained documentation of Democrat operatives putting “special counsel” Jack Smith’s weaponized attack into storage so they could bring it out again the next time they have a Dem in the White House:

“In the final weeks of Joe Biden’s presidency, FBI agents tied to Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation memorialized anew their belief that President Donald Trump broke the law in contesting the 2020 election and secretly arranged to preserve their evidence until 2030 in memos that raise alarm they could revive their prosecution after Trump leaves office.

The FBI memos and emails closing out the controversial Arctic Frost investigation – obtained by Just the News – show the bureau chose not to relinquish the evidence it gathered after Smith went to court to dismiss charges against Trump, even though that is the normal practice for agents. Instead, they created a preservation order keeping the evidence in FBI custody for two years after Trump’s second term ends, claiming it was necessary to do so because of ongoing litigation, the memos show.

FBI emails and memos obtained by Just the News dating back to early 2025 show how the FBI agents and DOJ prosecutors who had been working on the criminal prosecutions aimed at Trump and his allies worked to close the 2020 election-related case against the incoming president, while also seemingly leaving open the door for the criminal case to be revived once Trump leaves office and a Democrat again holds the reins at the Justice Department.

Now multiply that by every partisan leftist with a hint of authority, from Deep Staters to governors and attorneys general to local district attorneys and dogcatchers, even now building their “cases” against the sitting president, smug in the knowledge that their fellow travelers on the bench will wave it through, their state will pay for it, and their hate-addled juries will seal the deal. I wish for Trump’s own sake that he would use this time to liquidate all of his assets in commie-run locales and feather his nest in Free Florida, where he can spend his remaining years in relative peace and safety. But he’s Trump, and the last thing he’ll ever do is run from a fight.

And even if he did — even if he pulled up stakes and circumscribed his life to within the Florida state line — he would still never be safe from the lunatic would-be assassin army the left has ginned up. I redirect your attention to the example cited above: Hadi Matar, the Islamist assailant who wasn’t even alive when Rushdie was first targeted by Iran’s fatwa. The left’s maniacal Trump hatred is far more widespread and intense, and leftists will doubtless spend the coming decades inculcating their children in it.

Thank God, past presidents are entitled to Secret Service protection for life. And thank God, Trump is wealthy enough to pay for his own security and that of his family members (because the leftist evil knows no bounds). Democrats have also revealed they will go after anyone who did business with Trump in the private or public sector, so all-consuming is their enmity, and I don’t even know what to say to that. This is reason #3,856 why we must do everything in our power to prevent these monsters from ever being in a position to harm their perceived enemies again. It’s also why every one of us has a responsibility to watch over President Trump the rest of his days, in gratitude for the historical service he has rendered our beloved country.

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“Yulia Mendel claims that her former boss wanted Goebbels-style propaganda in Ukraine..”

• Zelensky’s Alleged Cocaine Use ‘An Open Secret’ – Former Spokeswoman (RT)

Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky’s alleged drug use is “an open secret,” former spokeswoman Yulia Mendel has claimed on the Tucker Carlson Show. Allegations of drug use first surfaced during the 2019 presidential election campaign, in which Zelensky defeated Petro Poroshenko. Zelensky, a former actor, dismissed the claims as slander at the time, and both candidates underwent tests for alcohol and drugs. Mendel worked for Zelensky from 2019 to 2021 and has since become highly critical of her former boss. In an interview released on Monday, Carlson asked whether Zelensky used drugs, to which Mendel replied: “This is an open secret.”


“The thing is that I’ve never seen him taking drugs. However, [while] writing my book, I met a lot of people who confirmed that they saw him taking drugs in different clubs. Only one saw him taking drugs in 2021,” she claimed. Mendel added that she learned about an alleged “supplier” from a person working at Kvartal 95 Studio, the entertainment company Zelensky co-founded in the 2000s. “Zelensky’s former press secretary alleges he urged subordinates to carry out ‘propaganda like Goebbels’ Yulia Mendel claims that after a drop in ratings in 2019, the Narcofuhrer ordered his PR team to improve his image, pointing to the effectiveness of Nazi Germany’s propaganda… pic.twitter.com/k6s7xpuE8V— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) May 12, 2026[..]

All these people are talking about cocaine, yes,” Mendel said, adding that before interviews, Zelensky had a habit of spending 15 minutes in the bathroom and emerging as a “different person.” Mendel described her former boss as being obsessed with his public image at home and abroad. She claimed that at one point, Zelensky told her: “I need Goebbels propaganda, I need thousands of talking heads,” referring to Adolf Hitler’s propaganda minister, Joseph Goebbels. Mendel also accused Zelensky of sending critics, including journalists, to the front line as punishment. Political opponents, including Kiev Mayor Vitaly Klitschko, have frequently accused Zelensky of abuse of power. Last year, US President Donald Trump called Zelensky – whose presidential term expired in 2024 – a dictator for refusing to call a new presidential election. Zelensky has argued that elections are prohibited under martial law and that a permanent ceasefire with Russia would be required before a new election can be held.

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Yermak was arrested overnight. Not long ago, he was either Zelensky’s right-hand man or his most likely successor.

• Zelensky’s ex-Spokeswoman Added To State-linked ‘Kill List’ (RT)

Vladimir Zelensky’s former spokesperson, Yulia Mendel, has been added to a Ukrainian state-linked ‘kill list’ for telling American journalist Tucker Carlson of rampant cocaine abuse in the corridors of power in Kiev and the desire of a corrupt elite to prolong the conflict with Russia. Mendel worked with Zelensky for two years during which time she says she witnessed him change from peacemaker to propagator of war. The list is run by the Mirotvorets website, which has been linked to Ukrainian security services and is notorious for publishing the addresses and personal details of anyone remotely deemed an enemy of the Ukrainian state, including Russian journalists, some of whom were subsequently assassinated.


The website has accused Mendel of “humanitarian aggression against Ukraine, spreading “narratives of Russian propaganda, calling for Ukraine‘s “capitulation“, and indirectly taking part in information-psychological special operations allegedly run by Russia. Mirotvorets cited Mendel telling Carlson that the Ukrainian delegation at talks in Istanbul in 2022 was ready to agree to “all of Russia’s demands” in order to stop the fighting, but that Kiev was pressured by the US and UK to continue the conflict and that Zelensky is now “one of the main obstacles to peace.” It also cited Mendel’s comments that Ukraine is “on the verge of disappearing,” and showing signs of “unhealthy nationalism.”

Mendel, who served as Zelensky’s press secretary from 2019 to 2021, has in recent months become an outspoken critic of her former boss. In the interview she leveled a series of allegations of corruption and drug use, calling Zelensky a “dictator” who has grown “detached from reality.” She also described Zelensky and his former chief of staff Andrey Yermak as “malicious and extremely paranoid narcissists,” saying their relationship had turned into a “symbiosis.”

Launched in 2014 as a nominally independent project, Mirotvorets has targeted a wide range of international figures, including Tucker Carlson, Hollywood director Woody Allen, Russian hockey star Alexander Ovechkin, and US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Russian officials have condemned the site as extremist. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has described it as a hit list targeting individuals Kiev allegedly wants to “eliminate.”

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“Mendel described her former boss as a “dictator” who has grown “detached from reality” and employed “thousands of talking heads”..

• ‘Zelensky Thrives On War, Why Would He End It?’: Former Press Secretary (RT)

Yulia Mendel has accused her former boss of seeking to prolong the conflict with Russia to “get more money” Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky is prolonging his country’s conflict with Russia in order to enrich himself and his associates in his cabinet, former spokeswoman Yulia Mendel has claimed in an interview with Tucker Carlson. Mendel, Zelensky’s press secretary from 2019 to 2021, launched a series of stinging allegations of corruption and drug use as Andrey Yermak, Zelensky’s former influential chief of staff, was named a suspect in a money laundering case.


Zelensky’s longtime former business partner, Timur Mindich, fled the country last year to avoid arrest in connection with another major corruption scandal involving energy-sector kickbacks that has seen several other close associates of the Ukrainian leader placed under suspicion. In an episode of the Tucker Carlson Show released on Monday, Mendel described her former boss as a “dictator” who has grown “detached from reality” and employed “thousands of talking heads” to craft a favorable image both at home and abroad.

“He is one of the biggest obstacles to peace today,” Mendel said, accusing Zelensky of being “behind many schemes of money laundering” that have rocked Ukraine in recent years. “There are a lot of people in his government who want peace. [Zelensky] is going to come up with any condition, he is going to change his positions all the time just to prolong this war and to get more money,” Mendel said, arguing that ending the conflict would be “political suicide” for Zelensky. When Carlson suggested that Ukraine cannot defeat Russia in a war of attrition, Mendel replied: “I think it’s obvious to Zelensky, too. But he thrives on this war. Why would he end it?”

Mendel claimed that Ukraine came close to reaching a deal with Russia twice in 2022, but was pressured by the US and UK to continue the conflict. The Kremlin accused the West of helping derail peace talks in Istanbul four years ago, which Zelensky denied. Zelensky, whose presidential term expired in 2024, has refused to hold new elections, citing martial law. The move has been criticized by both US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Mendel, citing an unnamed insider, claimed that secret polls commissioned by the Ukrainian government show Zelensky is “unelectable” if he runs again.

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“Arctic Frost memos suggest: Jack Smith’s team primed their criminal case against Donald Trump to resume once his presidency ends.”

• Biden FBI Secretly Set Up Trump To Be Indicted After He Leaves Office (JTN)

In the final weeks of Joe Biden’s presidency, FBI agents tied to Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation memorialized anew their belief that President Donald Trump broke the law in contesting the 2020 election and secretly arranged to preserve their evidence until 2030 in memos that raise alarm they could revive their prosecution after Trump leaves office.


The FBI memos and emails closing out the controversial Arctic Frost investigation – obtained by Just the News – show the bureau chose not to relinquish the evidence it gathered after Smith went to court to dismiss charges against Trump, even though that is the normal practice for agents. Instead, they created a preservation order keeping the evidence in FBI custody for two years after Trump’s second term ends, claiming it was necessary to do so because of ongoing litigation, the memos show.

FBI emails and memos obtained by Just the News dating back to early 2025 show how the FBI agents and DOJ prosecutors who had been working on the criminal prosecutions aimed at Trump and his allies worked to close the 2020 election-related case against the incoming president, while also seemingly leaving open the door for the criminal case to be revived once Trump leaves office and a Democrat again holds the reins at the Justice Department.

“The American people deserve to know how this egregious weaponization of power to target political opponents and President Trump happened inside an institution meant to protect them,” FBI Director Kash Patel told Just the News. “We shut down the weaponized CR-15 squad, and we are going to keep following the facts until there is full accountability. The FBI exists to protect the country, not to preserve political prosecutions for a future administration.”

Following Trump’s victory in November 2024 over Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, Smith sought to dismiss his case against Trump “without prejudice” – leaving open the possibility that the charges could be refiled in the future. U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan, appointed to the federal bench by President Barack Obama, pointed to the Office of Legal Counsel’s position that a sitting president could not be prosecuted by his own DOJ and granted Smith’s request to dismiss the case without prejudice.

One of the key “Case Closing” documents obtained by Just the News – originating from the FBI’s Washington Field Office’s CR-15 team – was dated a couple of weeks into Trump’s second term, on February 5, 2025, when many holdover FBI agents and leaders were still in place. The newly-released closing document from early 2025 repeated the extensive claims of criminality against Trump, which had been pursued by Smith and the bureau, and it sought to retain all of the evidence for a half decade until at least February 2030, when Trump would be a former president once more and thus when the DOJ guidance prohibiting the prosecution of a sitting president would no longer be in force.

The document was titled “Arctic Frost – Election Law Matters – Sensitive Investigative Matter” and its synopsis was “To Document the Closing of Captioned Investigation.” The listed enclosures buttressing the document were a “Deputy Special Counsel Concurrence” and the “Retention of Evidence Approval.” The FBI record states, “This Electronic Communication seeks approval to close the captioned full Sensitive Investigative Matter investigation” and argued that “because this was a SIM opened by a Field Office and involved a presidential candidate, the same level of approval required to open the investigation is also required to close the investigation.”

Evidence released last year showed that then-Attorney General Merrick Garland, then-Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco, and then-FBI Director Christopher Wray signed off on the launch of the Arctic Frost inquiry into Trump related to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot. Garland also quickly said he “personally approved the decision to seek a search warrant” for the FBI’s unprecedented raid of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in 2022. The Biden White House was also directly linked to the classified documents investigation into Trump, despite its denials, previously-released records show.

“The approval roles on this closing EC match those of the opening EC and, as such, Washington Field Office is seeking approval up to and including the Director of the FBI to close this investigation,” the newly released FBI document said. The document included a “Summary of the Results of the Investigation” into Trump, which had been pursued by Smith and the FBI, arguing that “the captioned FBI investigation was opened based on specific and articulable facts and circumstances that individuals affiliated with Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. (the ‘Trump Campaign’) engaged in activity that violated federal law.”

The FBI memo alleged that “the investigation revealed that when Donald J. Trump lost the 2020 presidential election, he resorted to crimes to try to stay in office. With various co-conspirators, Trump launched a series of plans to overturn the legitimate election results in seven states that he had lost – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.”

The bureau record also alleged that “Trump and his co-conspirators used knowingly false claims of election fraud in furtherance of three conspiracies: 1) a conspiracy to interfere with the federal government function by which the nation collects and counts election results, which is set forth in the Constitution and the Electoral Count Act; 2) a conspiracy to obstruct the official proceeding in which Congress certifies the legitimate results of the presidential election; and 3) a conspiracy against the rights of millions of Americans to vote and have their votes counted.”

The section on the “Disposition of Evidence” related to Smith’s anti-Trump investigation argued that “this investigation is subject to a litigation hold and is on the freeze list; as a result, no evidence can be returned or destroyed and must be retained.”

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It’s Marine Le Pen’s party. Democracy was born in france, and it died there too.

• EU Targets France’s Jordan Bardella As His Anti-Migration Party Surges (RMX)

Last week, reports that the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) is investigating France’s right-wing, anti-migration party National Rally (RN) for misallocation of EU funds made the rounds. At its core, the case involves a complaint filed last December by the association AC!! Anti-Corruption with the National Financial Prosecutor’s Office (PNF) in Paris. These allegations have already been contested by RN, but the party must also now face scrutiny from Brussels, as the funds involved include EU money. The charge is that the National Rally misused the funds by allocating money received for media training for its leader, Jordan Bardella, not for his work as an MEP, but with the aim of helping him to prepare for France’s 2027 presidential election. Other members of the party have also been named in connection with the same charge.


Bardella posted on X that the investigation is not news and certainly nothing new for the party, labeling the charges as politically motivated slander. “We have absolutely nothing to reproach ourselves for. The association behind the complaint is a self-proclaimed far-left organization, whose aggressive statements leave little doubt as to their intentions. I filed a complaint several weeks ago for slanderous denunciation,” he wrote, while assuring that he and his party would fully cooperate with the EPPO. National Rally has been in the top spot in recent polling, despite its former leader, Marine Le Pen, having been sidelined by a similar case last year.

She is appealing that decision, but for now has made it clear that Bardella will run on the RN ticket for president.The party’s popularity, with or without Le Pen, cannot be a surprise to its rivals, given the sle w of issues France has been suffering from due to its policy of mass immigration and lax deportation: Elderly rape, minor prostitution, failing education, robberies, violent rape, concerns over sharia law, and murder. As the mother of 18-year-old Théo, who was stabbed to death by a Senegalese migrant who ended up avoiding prison, said: “You can kill in France with impunity.”

Meanwhile, the media and the left prefer not to draw attention to the link between increased migration and violence. And yet, a new website and real estate browser extension for Chrome is offering data on immigration levels, insecurity, and Islamization rates of neighborhoods for prospective buyers in the latest sign that the French public is highly concerned about record-breaking numbers of immigrants. According to a recent ifop poll, 60 percent of French believe there is “a replacement of the French population by non-European populations, mainly from the African continent.” The same poll found that 66 percent see it as a bad development. Only 9 percent noted it as good.

This is a major factor why the National Rally has been surging in the polls, and why left-wing parties and activist organizations will do anything to bring them down — first targeting Le Pen and now Bardella. Other party politicians and staff members have been implicated in both cases. Such efforts are not unique to France, with efforts ongoing for years over in Germany to bring down the anti-migration AfD party, which has also seen a massive rise in popularity. With reports indicating France is spending over €2 billion a year on housing and healthcare for asylum seekers and illegal migrants, RN’s rivals will need more than accusations of misappropriated funds to stop voters from exercising their desire for change.

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The European Commission chief is “obsessed” with proving she’s in charge, diplomats and officials have complained ..

• Von der Leyen’s Power Grab Angers EU Officials – Bloomberg (RT)

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has tightened her control over the EU’s executive branch to the point where the bloc’s leaders and diplomats now view her as too powerful, according to a Bloomberg report.In power since 2019, von der Leyen has rebuilt the European Commission in her image and become “the face of Europe,” Bloomberg wrote on Tuesday. She has spearheaded the EU’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, authored its hyper-belligerent policies toward Russia, and negotiated its trade deals with US President Donald Trump.


However, EU officials told the US news outlet that she’s “obsessed with demonstrating that she’s in charge,” and “is constantly jumping into the middle of the latest crisis, even when it’s outside her remit,” all while neglecting her core mission of strengthening the economy. A draft internal market strategy compiled by Commission Vice President Stephane Sejourne, for example, has sat neglected on her desk since November, Bloomberg claimed. Von der Leyen only showed the document to member states and the European Parliament days before its publication last month, making deliberation effectively impossible.

A similar scenario played out last year when von der Leyen shared the EU’s long-term budget with her fellow commissioners at the last minute, angering member states who were being asked to cough up a record €2 trillion ($2.4 trillion) with no consultation. Germany immediately rejected the budget, and lawmakers from von der Leyen’s CDU party met to demand additional checks on her power. Business leaders, meanwhile, have demanded that she act to improve the bloc’s competitiveness, but Bloomberg’s sources say their concerns rarely filter through to her “tight-knit” and “micromanaged” group of advisers.

Von der Leyen was handed a second stint at the helm of the commission in 2024, and has spent this second term in office dramatically centralizing power in Brussels. She began her term by appointing her team of 26 commissioners without running the list past the European Parliament first, proposed the establishment of an intelligence agency under her control last year – snatching this responsibility away from Kaja Kallas’ diplomatic arm of the EU – and has pushed for the creation of a “two-speed” EU, in which smaller blocs of countries could make policy decisions without the unanimous support of all 27 member states.

Von der Leyen has also moved to end the EU’s unanimity requirement on matters of foreign policy, arguing that the commission’s proposals should be passed with a simple majority vote. With regard to the bloc’s Ukraine policies, removing unanimity would eliminate the veto powers exercised by former Hungarian Prime Minister and war critic Viktor Orban, and undermine the neutrality of countries such as Austria and Ireland.

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It will require Trump.

• Kathy Hochul Caves to Mamdani, Will Bail Out Socialist NYC (Margolis)

Not long ago, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul told New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani to handle his own mess. Now she’s writing him a $4 billion check to bail him out. Mamdani had barely settled into Gracie Mansion before he discovered what socialists always find out: Eventually, you run out of other people’s money. His grand campaign promises — you know: free this, universal that — ran headlong into the reality that New York City couldn’t afford all the things Mamdani had campaigned on. So, Mamdani went looking to Albany for a bailout. And, originally, Hochul said no.


“The mayor and City Council need to work together, identify savings, and close the remaining gap,” a Hochul spokesperson said last month. As a resident of New York State (I’ll accept your condolences), I was thrilled. But apparently, a lot can change in a few weeks, especially when polls show the race for governor is tightening. On Tuesday, Gov. Hochul and Mayor Mamdani announced a sweeping new state funding package. The press release made it sound like a wonderful thing: Governor Hochul, in partnership with the state legislature, has secured an additional $4 billion in gap-closing support, bringing the total new state assistance to nearly $8 billion over two years.

With this latest agreement, the Mamdani Administration will officially close the more than $12 billion deficit it inherited from the previous administration, stabilizing the City’s finances while advancing investments that make New York more affordable for working people. These new investments build on the $1.5 billion in assistance announced in the Governor’s 30-day amendments in February and funding for universal childcare.”The announcement was dressed up in the usual Albany language about affordability and working families, with Hochul declaring it “a results-driven, responsible partnership.” That’s one way to describe it.

Something changed between Hochul’s stern message last month and Tuesday’s joint press conference — and nobody’s saying what it was. One can only imagine what kind of secret deal was reached to convince Hochul to reverse course so completely. My best guess? Mamdani promised to support her reelection campaign and hit the trail with her. A $4 billion commitment is an awfully expensive favor to do for free, and you better believe Hochul is getting something for it.

Both sides were eager to perform for the cameras. “Governor Hochul and I share a belief that government works best when we work together on behalf of the people we serve,” Mamdani said. He added that he and Hochul had “partnered through every step of this process to protect the fiscal health of our city” and called her commitment to securing New York City’s future something “working people can afford.” Because working people must live within their means, not the government.

Hochul, meanwhile, insisted she’d been committed “from day one” to New York City’s success, arguing a strong city strengthens the state as a whole. She framed the deal as delivering “free universal child care,” investments in education, public safety, and infrastructure, and the resources needed to keep critical services running. Touching stuff. It would be more convincing if she hadn’t spent weeks telling Mamdani to figure it out himself.

Not everyone in New York is buying the Kumbaya routine. Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman went right for the jugular. “Kathy Hochul just committed the largest daylight robbery in New York history, looting $4 billion from your family’s grocery and rent budget to bankroll Zohran Mamdani’s socialist experiment,” Blakeman said in a statement. He’s not wrong. I pay taxes in New York, and now I’m going to be covering for Mamdani’s socialist campaign promises. Hochul may think this will strengthen her position as she seeks another term in office, but how many people in New York State really want to be bailing out New York City?

Read more …

Did they?

• CIA Went Rogue, Raided Tulsi’s Office to Seize Papers (Catherine Salgado)

A breaking news alert from Fox News, apparently confirmed by a Republican congresswoman, states that the Central Intelligence Agency went rogue, raiding the office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) to seize files. It seems from the Fox News report that the CIA seized the files just now, though a whistleblower from the agency who testified to Congress today referred to the wrongful seizure of files in his testimony. It is therefore not clear if the raid occurred today or before the testimony, or if there was more than one seizure. In either case, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna is giving the CIA 24 hours to return the files in question or face consequences.


The CIA was allegedly after the files on the assassination of President John F. Kennedy and the MK-Ultra human experimentation scandal. The story on the raid is developing but seems to be legitimate, and illustrates the need for drastic cuts in our Deep State. Donald Trump cannot hope to prevent such egregious acts by merely replacing top leadership. The majority of employees at the CIA and FBI worked there during the Biden-era weaponization of justice and believe they are not accountable to Trump or We the People.

DNI Tulsi Gabbard was reportedly in the process of declassifying the JFK and MK-ULTRA files, and it seems the CIA gave us indirect confirmation that there is something in those files that they desperately do not want anyone to know. The problem is that we don’t know if they will be able to destroy the files or not before the Trump administration can get them back. If the raid just occurred and did not happen previously in the last couple of days, it is interesting to note that President Trump was out of the country in China, and therefore unable to be present personally to deal with the situation. Hopefully, Vice President Vance is on the job.

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) promptly issued a warning to the CIA, as you can see below, evidently providing confirmation of the raid: “The CIA has 24 hours to return the documents to Tulsi Gabbard’s office or else I will make a motion to issue a subpoena. These documents have been requested by Congress. @DNIGabbard @CIADirector https://t.co/Y5lMw8AYK5 — Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (@RepLuna) May 13, 2026”. CIA Director John Ratcliffe has not yet commented on the allegations, so he has not been able to clarify any timeline for when the raid happened. Gabbard has also not commented publicly.

The Hindustan Times referred to the allegations made by alleged whistleblower James Erdman: At Wednesday’s hearing before the Senate Homeland Security Committee, Erdman alleged that the CIA seized files related to the controversial human experimentation program, MKUltra, as well as the assassination of John F. Kennedy Jr, from the office of Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. Erdman said that the files were about to be processed for declassification – a long-standing public demand – when the CIA swooped in and seized the files.

Read more …

Or not. “Good grief. I cannot believe people actually believed this story as presented ..”

• No, The CIA Did Not Raid DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s Office (CTH)

Good grief. I cannot believe people actually believed this story as presented. Yes, the CIA is sketchy; however, no, the CIA did not raid the office of the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, taking boxes of JFK and MK Ultra files. Oliva Coleman is Tulsi Gabbard’s spokesperson. The story is fake news.


Was there friction and opposition within the CIA to DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s office, yes. However, John Ratcliffe and Tulsi Gabbard have been working together for almost a year to address the Machiavellian network that operates in the shadows, and they have had remarkable success.

It’s highly likely former CIA embeds were doing some unauthorized surveillance of DNI Gabbard as she came into office. Obviously, she was a threat to their position and influence. However, through a methodical approach at addressing the politically motivated embeds within the entire Intelligence Community, including the CIA, DNI Gabbard has been successful in eliminating most of the corrupt actors. CIA Director John Ratcliffe would never authorize or allow anything like what was being framed in that outlandish story. It simply did not happen.

Read more …

Everyone seems to agree datacenters will soon be in space (orbital).

• Datacenters, The AI Race and American Politics (CTH)

There is an increased public discussion about the race to build datacenters in the USA that are part of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) race for superiority. There are multiple facets within the discussion and some things to consider that might not be at the forefront, yet. Overall, there is a global race to build the best AI system that is not dissimilar to the nuclear arms race. Arguably the use of AI as a weapon is one possibility; while the second aspect surrounds strategic economic power.


The USA is poised very favorably in this AI race due to the advanced tech industry in America and recent national security moves made by President Trump in the tech sector surrounding strategic critical minerals and domestic chip production. However, no one is quite sure where China is in their AI development and last year’s explosive revelation around China’s “Deepseek” model shocked the U.S. tech industry due to its advanced intelligence prowess. With China and the USA both in this AI race, and the need for massive investment in datacenters to do the processing needed for an artificial intelligence brain of such significant capacity, there is a sense of urgency in the tech industry that is surfacing around the country.

Simultaneously, with datacenters becoming more controversial, suddenly the geopolitical intelligence operations enter the picture. Currently, it is well accepted inside the tech industry that part of China’s strategy against the USA in this AI race is to slow down American system development. As a consequence, it is beginning to surface that Beijing may be funding voices inside the USA to rally against the building of datacenters. Essentially, China funding voices, real or artificially boosted influence operations, to amplify domestic opposition to the datacenters.

Anytime the intelligence operations become part of a domestic issue that has national security implications, things get opaque, cloudy and muddy pretty quick. Is datacenter opposition organic – actual citizens and communities pushing back against the development in their towns and/or cities or is the opposition to the datacenters a form of foreign influence operation? These questions become challenging to answer, and discernment becomes very critical. The truth might even be a combination depending on the localized opposition and/or regional importance. One thing is very clear, building the world’s leading AI system is being rushed with an urgency similar to atomic bomb development.

Here’s a great example of that type of question. Today Gallup released a poll showing 72 percent of Americans are opposed to building AI datacenters in their area. [POLLING HERE]

[Note the date]

The topline sounds pretty straightforward right? 7 in 10 Americans oppose “the construction of a data center in their area to support artificial intelligence technology.” That’s the polled result. Indeed, this poll is being cited in numerous media articles now emphasizing opposition to the datacenters.However, put on your discernment cap and look at it closely. Notice the date of the poll, “March 2-18, 2026.” Why did Gallup wait two months to release the results of a poll on May 13, 2026?

Did the date of release today have something to do with the timing of President Trump taking a list of key U.S. tech and finance leaders to Beijing to confront China on exactly this AI issue? …. Or was it coincidental? This is where you have to make up your own mind as to whether this Gallup poll is an organic outcome, an organically timed release, on an issue that just happens to be at the heart of the geopolitical negotiations currently underway in Beijing between the USA and China. Or was there some kind of influence operation around it?

Read more …

“.. as Benjamin Franklin warned us and now Elias has reminded us, we must fight to keep this Republic.”

• Marc Elias Raises Power to Eliminate the Virginia Government (Turley)

Democratic lawyer Marc Elias appears to believe that Democrats do not need to stop at simply sacking and packing the Virginia Supreme Court in response to the adverse ruling on the radical gerrymandering plan. Elias reminded Democrats that they could eliminate the entire Virginia government under the state constitution. The demand for radical action was prompted by the Virginia justices, including one appointed by then-Democratic governor Mark Warner, who found the Democratic effort unconstitutional. It does not matter that leading Democrats, including Gov. Abigail Spanberger, also believed that the Democrats could be found in violation of the state constitution in pushing forward with the controversial effort to virtually extinguished Republican representation in the purple state.


The adverse decision has resulted in the same demands for radical institutional changes from some of the same voices pledging to pack the United States Supreme Court once they retake power, to guarantee they never lose it again. Elias responded to the loss by invoking language from Article I of the Virginia Constitution itself: “whenever any government shall be found inadequate or contrary to these purposes, a majority of the community hath an indubitable, inalienable, and indefeasible right to reform, alter, or abolish it, in such manner as shall be judged most conducive to the public weal.” That is his response to a well-reasoned decision of unconstitutionality of a redistricting plan. We can scrap the entire Virginia government.

It is another example of the “by any means necessary” culture of the left today. There is no institution or value that is sacred. This is why I recently wrote about the rise of “the new Jacobins” in my book Rage and the Republic, lawyers and law professors rationalizing the trashing of the Constitution and our institutions to achieve their political goals. Elias has long been controversial for his tactics. It was Elias who was the general counsel to the Clinton presidential campaign when it secretly funded the infamous Steele dossier and pushed the false Alfa Bank conspiracy. (His fellow Perkins Coie partner, Michael Sussmann, was later indicted but acquitted).

Clinton campaign officials denied any involvement in the Steele Dossier. When journalists discovered after the election that the Clinton campaign hid payments for the Steele dossier as “legal fees” among the $5.6 million paid to Perkins Coie, they were reportedly stonewalled. The campaign was ultimately sanctioned by the Federal Election Commission for the subterfuge. New York Times reporter Ken Vogel said at the time that Elias denied involvement in the anti-Trump dossier. When Vogel tried to report the story, he said, Elias “pushed back vigorously, saying ‘You (or your sources) are wrong.’” Times reporter Maggie Haberman later wrote that “Folks involved in funding this lied about it, and with sanctimony, for a year.”

Elias’s group later unsuccessfully led efforts to challenge Democratic electoral losses. In Maryland, Elias’s team supported another abusive gerrymandering scheme that a court found not only violated Maryland law but the state constitution’s equal protection, free speech and free elections clauses. The court found that the map “subverts the will of those governed.” One media site accused Elias and his group of “making millions off gerrymandering efforts” while publicly denouncing Republican gerrymandering. In 2024, Elias’s legal team was also accused of pushing “to bar third-party presidential candidates — including Cornel West — from swing state ballots where they might siphon votes from the Democratic nominee [Kamala Harris].”

Likewise, the New York Times reported that Elias’s firm’s work “on behalf of a Soros-funded PAC in Texas…was opposed by a left-leaning election watchdog as undermining laws intended to limit the influence of major donors.” His group’s work for New York redistricting was ridiculed as not only ignoring the express will of the voters and also effectively negating the votes of Republican voters.

In 2024, the Chief Judge of the Western District of Wisconsin criticized the Elias Law Group for one of its challenges. Judge James Peterson (an Obama appointee) said that the argument “simply does not make any sense.” Now, Elias is reminding Virginians that they can respond to an opposing court decision by eliminating some or all of the Virginia state government.

It is the logic of the Jacobin. As discussed in my book, the Framers sought to prevent democracy from becoming mobocracy by rejecting more direct democratic powers. They tried to temper the passions of democracy in moments like this. There is nothing new about these voices, like that of Elias, in fueling radical impulses. They are the same voices and arguments that has long been heard in this country. We have long rejected them and this year will celebrate the 250th anniversary of our Independence. However, as Benjamin Franklin warned us and now Elias has reminded us, we must fight to keep this Republic.

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Home › Forums › Debt Rattle May 14 2026

Viewing 4 posts - 1 through 4 (of 4 total)
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  • May 14, 2026 at 10:00 am #240560
    Raúl Ilargi Meijer
    Keymaster

    Nicolai Dubovskov Hushing (Calm Before the Storm) 1890 • Bessent’s “Suffocating” Iranian Regime Strategy Materializes (ZH) • Trump, Xi, and the Taiwan
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle May 14 2026]

    May 14, 2026 at 10:07 am #240574
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Faced with a Global Financial and Economic Crisis, China Has Better Options than the US
    12 May 2026 by Larry C. Johnson 235 Comments

    The Direct Comparison of Debt to GDP
    This article is longer than my usual contribution, but the issue is of critical importance. Donald Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping is taking place at a time of unprecedented economic turmoil caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As I have discussed in my recent articles, the disruption of the supply chains for oil, Liquid Natural Gas, sulfur, helium and urea marks a global event that has not happened in modern history.

    Many Western economists claim that China’s economy is more troubled than the US, even though the US has a far worse debt to gdp ratio. Based on official data from US government sources and China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the United States has a significantly higher debt-to-GDP ratio than China. As of the end of 2025, the US ratio was 122.6%, while China’s ratio was 11.9% .

    However, it is crucial to understand that these two figures measure very different things. They are like comparing the debt of an entire country to the foreign debt of a single corporation. Here is a detailed breakdown of the comparison.

    The Western analysts give the edge to the US over China using the following criteria:

    Debt quality and productivity matter more than raw ratios. The core Western argument is not simply about the size of debt but about what it bought. Western analysts point to China’s debt-fueled investment in property, infrastructure, and state-owned enterprises as having generated diminishing returns — ghost cities, empty highways, and overcapacity in steel and aluminum — whereas US debt has financed consumption, defense, and transfer payments in a predominantly market-driven economy where capital allocation is more efficient.

    The property crisis is structural and severe. China’s property sector, which at its peak accounted for roughly 25–30% of GDP when including related industries, has been in a prolonged downturn since Evergrande’s collapse in 2021. Unlike a cyclical recession, this represents a fundamental repricing of the dominant store of household wealth in China, with no clear floor yet established. The US has no equivalent structural drag of comparable scale.

    Deflation vs. inflation dynamics. China is battling deflation — consumer prices were negative or near-zero through much of 2024 and 2025 — which is particularly dangerous for a heavily indebted economy because it increases the real burden of debt even without new borrowing. The US, despite recent inflation, has seen nominal GDP grow faster than its debt in recent years, which mechanically improves its debt-to-GDP ratio.

    Demographics are dramatically worse. China faces one of the most severe demographic contractions in history — a consequence of the one-child policy — with its working-age population already shrinking and its old-age dependency ratio set to roughly triple by 2050. A shrinking workforce means slower growth, higher social spending, and a smaller tax base to service debt. The US demographic outlook, while challenging, is substantially better due to immigration.

    Reserve currency privilege. This is arguably the most important distinction. The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency, meaning the US can borrow in its own currency at relatively low interest rates from a virtually unlimited global pool of creditors. If the US faces a debt crisis, it can ultimately print dollars. China cannot do this — the renminbi is not freely convertible and is not a global reserve currency — meaning China’s debt dynamics are more constrained. Al Jazeera

    Transparency and data reliability. Many Western analysts distrust China’s official statistics. GDP figures, local government debt levels, and bank non-performing loan ratios are all viewed with suspicion, with analysts routinely assuming the real figures are worse than reported. US data, produced by independent statistical agencies, is generally taken at face value. MS NOW

    An Alternative View:

    These arguments, on the surface, appear valid but reflect a Western bias that is a product of arrogance and ignorance. Here are the main biases I see that skew the Western analysis:

    Dollar-centric framing. Much Western financial analysis is produced by institutions — Wall Street banks, Washington think tanks, European universities — whose entire intellectual framework assumes dollar hegemony as a permanent feature of the world. Any analysis that questions that hegemony is institutionally uncomfortable.

    Confirmation bias in the analyst community. For roughly fifteen years, Western analysts have been predicting an imminent Chinese economic collapse that has not arrived. Having made those predictions publicly, there is professional pressure to continue making them rather than to revise the framework.

    Political convenience. At a moment of intense US-China geopolitical rivalry — and now active conflict in the Gulf — there is obvious political utility in portraying China’s economy as fragile. Analysts who work for institutions with government contracts or who seek access to policymakers have subtle incentives to align with the prevailing political narrative.

    The US debt problem is genuinely uncomfortable to discuss. Interest payments on the US national debt surpassed spending on both Medicare and national defense in fiscal year 2024 — a milestone that would, in any other country, prompt serious discussion of fiscal sustainability. The tendency to focus analytical attention on China’s problems rather than comparably serious US structural issues reflects a form of motivated reasoning.

    Both economies have serious structural problems. China’s are more acute in the near term — the property crisis, deflation, and demographic collapse are genuine and severe. However, the US problems are more dangerous in the long run — a debt trajectory that is mathematically unsustainable without either significantly higher taxes, significantly lower spending, or financial repression through inflation. The critical variable is the US reserve currency privilege… Can the US maintain that privilege? I say no.

    There is substantial and growing evidence across multiple independent indicators that dollar erosion is real, measurable, and accelerating, though its pace and ultimate destination remain genuinely contested. The dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 57% for the first time since 1995, reaching 56.9% in Q3 2025 and dropping further in subsequent quarters. This represents a structural decline from a peak of 72% in 2001. US Government Spending

    The IMF adds an important nuance: once adjusted for exchange rate effects — since a weaker dollar mechanically reduces the dollar-denominated value of reserves held in other currencies — the underlying active diversification away from dollars is somewhat smaller than raw figures suggest. Even so, the longer-term decline is real. NBER

    The dollar’s share has now dropped to a 31-year low, though what has primarily driven the declining share is not central banks selling dollar assets but rather a surge in assets denominated in dozens of smaller currencies as central banks diversify their growing reserve piles.

    The Dollar’s Exchange Rate

    The DXY index — the dollar against a basket of major currencies — fell more than 10% in the first half of 2025, its biggest drop since 1973. The dollar fell 7.9% against the euro and over 11% against the Swiss franc in those six months alone. In January 2026, it fell a further 1.2%, following the cumulative 10% decline against major currencies over the prior year. Pew Research CenterCongressional Budget Office

    The sudden, sharp nature of these falls is unusual for a currency traded as widely as the dollar. The daily flow of transactions into and out of the dollar is so massive that sudden sharp declines should theoretically be smoothed out — the fact that they have occurred has sparked serious debate about whether the US is losing reserve currency status. MacroTrends

    Foreign Holdings of US Treasuries

    The share of foreign ownership in the US Treasury market has fallen from above 50% during the Global Financial Crisis to roughly 30% today. China specifically has cut its Treasury holdings from $1.3 trillion in 2013 to $682 billion as of November 2025. However, total foreign holdings have continued rising in absolute terms, hitting a record $9.35 trillion in November 2025, split between private entities ($4.8 trillion) and official institutions ($3.8 trillion) — so the decline in share reflects rapid Treasury issuance more than an exodus.

    The Gold Signal

    Gold’s share of global reserves has risen from 13% in 2017 to approximately 30% in 2025, with BRICS+ nations now holding 17.4% of global gold reserves, up from 11.2% in 2019. Net central bank gold purchases surged to 230 tonnes in Q4 2025 alone, bringing the full-year total to 863 tonnes. Increases in gold holdings are most strongly associated with a decline in dollar reserves specifically for China, Russia, and Turkey — the three countries most strategically motivated to reduce dollar dependence. Rhodium Group

    The Petrodollar: The Most Consequential Crack

    The petrodollar system — the cornerstone of dollar dominance since the 1970s — is showing cracks. BRICS nations now settle approximately 67% of intra-bloc trade in local currencies, up from under 20% a decade ago. The current Gulf conflict has materially accelerated this: Iranian oil is being sold for Chinese yuan, tolls at the Strait are being settled in yuan, and the PGSA’s payment infrastructure operates entirely outside the dollar system. \

    The Safe Haven Question

    Perhaps most significantly, a January 2026 CEPR paper titled “The US Dollar: Not a Traditional Safe Haven” argued that the dollar no longer behaves as a reliable safe haven in all risk-off events — a foundational assumption of dollar dominance that, if permanently impaired, would have profound implications for reserve demand. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia noted that the dollar did appreciate following the recent attacks on Iran, suggesting the safe-haven function has not fully eroded.

    China’s Alternative Infrastructure

    China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) recorded 750,540 transactions valued at approximately $270 billion in a single month by March 2026, now connecting 194 direct participants and 1,597 indirect participants across 117 countries, with total annual volume reaching 180 trillion yuan ($25 trillion) in 2025 — a 43% annual volume increase. This is the plumbing of a parallel financial system being built in real time.

    The question that analysts ought to be asking is what happens when (not if) the current supply chain disruption triggers a global depression, rather than global stagflation? The primary vulnerability for the US is not the size of its debt ($39 trillion, ~125% of GDP) but its funding model. The US relies on the constant goodwill of global investors to roll over its debt. A severe recession would directly test this confidence.

    If a recession hit, the US government would face a massive fiscal cliff:

    Required Stimulus: To fight the recession, the government would likely need to pass another multi-trillion dollar stimulus package

    Automatic Stabilizers Surge: Spending on unemployment benefits, food assistance, and healthcare would skyrocket.

    Tax Revenues Collapse: Corporate and personal income tax receipts would plummet.

    This sudden explosion in borrowing needs would come at the worst possible time. Here is the “doom loop” that former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have warned about:

    The Trigger: A recession causes the budget deficit to balloon far beyond current projections.
    Loss of Confidence: Global investors, spooked by the US’s inability to control its finances, demand much higher interest rates (yields) to buy new Treasury bonds.
    Debt Spiral: Higher interest rates dramatically increase the government’s cost to borrow, adding hundreds of billions to the deficit, which forces the government to issue even more debt.
    The “Minsky Moment”: This self-reinforcing cycle could trigger a sudden collapse in bond prices, leading to what experts call a financial crisis or a currency crisis, potentially undermining the US dollar’s status as the world’s safe-haven currency.
    China’s vulnerability is the opposite of America’s. Because its debt is mostly domestically held and controlled, it is less vulnerable to a sudden loss of confidence from foreign investors. Its risk is structural: The Chinese economy now requires enormous amounts of debt to generate very little growth.

    Research data shows that in 2000, China needed roughly 13-16 yuan of new debt to generate 1 yuan of GDP growth. By 2025, it needed 60-75 yuan of debt to generate the same 1 yuan of growth. This collapsing “debt productivity” is the key danger. However, China’s Belt-and-Road-Initiative provides the Chinese with some options that would mitigate suffering in China from a global economic crisis.

    The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is no longer just a foreign infrastructure program; it has evolved into a central pillar of China’s domestic economic strategy. Far from retreating as some Western analysts predicted, the BRI saw a record-breaking resurgence in 2025, with total project value reaching a staggering $213.6 billion. It now serves as a critical pressure valve and strategic engine for the Chinese economy in three major ways: absorbing industrial overcapacity, securing essential resources, and creating new export markets.

    Massive Scale and Recent Resurgence

    After a period of slower growth, the BRI has re-emerged with unprecedented scale and strategic focus. The data below illustrates the initiative’s recent explosive growth:

    The initiative’s focus has also shifted, moving beyond “small yet beautiful” projects to massive, strategic investments. This growth is directly linked to solving challenges inside China’s economy.

    A Safety Valve for Domestic Overcapacity

    China faces a significant domestic challenge: it manufactures far more than its population and slowing economy can consume, particularly in green and high-tech sectors. The BRI provides a crucial outlet for this excess production.

    High-Tech & Green Energy Surge: In 2025, China’s exports of electric vehicles (EVs), lithium batteries, and solar panels jumped by 27.1%, and wind turbine exports skyrocketed by 48.7%. Much of this production is finding a home in BRI partner countries.

    Building Factories Abroad: To bypass trade barriers like high US tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing is using the BRI to relocate manufacturing capacity. In 2025 alone, BRI projects in the technology and manufacturing sector hit a record $28.7 billion, focusing on EV battery factories and semiconductor facilities in intermediary countries like those in Southeast Asia.

    Diversifying Markets Away from the West

    As Western markets, particularly the United States, have become less accessible due to trade tensions, the BRI has been instrumental in finding new customers for Chinese goods.

    BRI Now Dominates Trade: For the first time, trade with BRI partner countries now accounts for over half (51.9%) of China’s total foreign trade.

    The African Pivot: The most dramatic shift has been towards Africa. In 2025, Chinese exports to Africa jumped by roughly 18%, making it the top destination for Chinese export growth. Correspondingly, the value of BRI projects in Africa surged by a staggering 283% to reach $61.2 billion.

    This strategy is reshaping global trade patterns. As one analysis notes, “south-south trade” —economic exchange between developing countries—has expanded tenfold over the past three decades and now accounts for over a third of global commerce

    Securing Supply Chains and Critical Resources

    Beyond selling goods, the BRI is also about securing what China needs to keep its industries running. It is being used as a tool to vertically integrate global supply chains.

    Critical Minerals: Massive investments are being made in mining and resource processing. The mining and metals sector under the BRI saw investments reach about $32.6 billion in 2025, including significant projects in Kazakhstan and other resource-rich nations.

    Energy Transition: While China has pledged to stop building new coal plants abroad, the 2025 BRI saw record green energy investments of $18.3 billion in solar and wind projects, alongside continued investment in oil and gas to meet its energy needs

    The competition between the US economy and the China economy is the backdrop for this week’s meeting in Beijing. If the shutdown of the supply chains from the Persian Gulf persist, the US economy and financial system is the most vulnerable. Does Donald Trump understand that?

    Here is a conversation I had on Friday with Zulfiqar Ali. Zulfiqar is my source for the intel provided by the Pakistani ISI official:

    EX-CIA Larry Johnson: Saudi Arabia Is KICKING Out the US World Will Never Be the Same
    Judge Napolitano and I discussed the current situation in the Persian Gulf:

    Larry Johnson : Israel Secretly Invades Iraq
    Nima and I discussed Trump’s reaction to the Iranian position paper on ending the war (what a terrible AI photo):

    Larry Johnson:
    I thank you for your invaluable support by taking time to read or comment. I do not charge a subscription fee nor do I accept advertising. I want the content to be accessible to everyone interested in the issues I am discussing. However, if you wish to make a donation, please see this link.

    May 14, 2026 at 10:08 am #240575
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    https://sonar21.com/faced-with-a-global-financial-and-economic-crisis-china-has-better-options-than-the-us/

    May 14, 2026 at 10:24 am #240576
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    GRIFTBUSTERS – POIKONEN & NIXON – ICE CAN ACCESS 20 MILLION PHONES – INCOMING FAMINE – & MORE

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