Debt Rattle August 22 2015
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Harris&Ewing Motorcycle postman, Washington, DC 1912 • Dow Plunges 531 Points In Global Selloff, Largest Weekly Drop Since 2008 (WSJ) • Stocks Post Wo
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle August 22 2015]I understand a few things very well and many more I think I understand but I am at a complete loss of understanding about what Alexis Tsipras has done. I can think of no explanation for things like his depression over the no vote on the referendum to his trumpeting the latest bailout as a good deal.
He just as well could have been an agent of the powers that be for how he has presided over a situation and a deal that was horrible when he came in and yet he somehow made it worse. I simply can’t get my mind around it. I can’t understand it.
Raul, help me out here. Is there some strategy which will allow Tsipras to suddenly use a judo move that would turn defeat into victory, perhaps based upon an understanding about the precarious nature of the Euro financial and political system? Or if not victory exactly , because we know nobody is going to win as the system devolves, but at least cutting neoliberal juggernaut down to size?
“A big one. But not THE big one.” Totally agree. A slightly different trend from two months ago.
In real “Science” – the ultimate test of any hypothesis is to generate predictions for future behavior. If your predictions are accurate; this is the best “proof” you can have (though still never absolute). If, like 99.9% of academic Economists, your predictions are lousy – that’s really a proof that your working theories are also flawed.
We, here, should all entertain ourselves by predicting what the markets will do next week! Granted, instantly, that predicting what market indices will do in a short run is not truly connected to any real world changes in resources – it’s fun to see if we’re even vaguely comprehending what the Owners are up to.
My personal guess – which I will limit tightly: the Dow, on Monday, will start the day moving down again; but will finish the day up- from the Monday opening. The rest of the week will be upsies and downsies – and the week will finish up – somewhere around 300 points from Monday’s opening. ± 200; but up.
Entertainment. 🙂
“The United States suffers from obvious deficiencies in roads, rails, water systems and more”
Very true, but as the son of a professor of Civil Engineering, who was also a professional engineer and oversaw the construction of several bits of infrastructure that around 80% of TAE readers have actually used- and who ranted at the dinner table – I can tell you that:
The quality of infrastructure projects NOW – is drastically lower, and less predictable, than it was in the 40s and 60s. Because? Corruption in the construction industry has had time to become better established and organized. Before the big dams, the interstate system, etc., corrupt practices were smaller, less profitable, and unorganized. Now- if you’re building a highway anywhere in the US – count on the fact that materials you order WILL be of lower quality than specified – etc, etc. Policing on the job is nearly non-existent, corrupt inspectors being the rule, not the exception, in many regions. Roads are designed to deteriorate (faster and faster, it seem, doesn’t it?) – to ensure the construction company will have another big job soon.
So; from Krugman’s view – government may have been getting what it paid for, years ago; but it’s far from certain government debts of that kind will actually yield benefits today.
“The sinking could damage aqueducts, bridges, roads and dams”
As usual, it’s worse than that. When the land sinks; it means cavities in the rock/sand/clay/etc. below have collapsed. That land will NEVER hold and store water in the same way again. Not just in your lifetime – in geological time. The damage is permanent.
It’s not just 10 feet of water capacity that has been destroyed, the ability of water to flow in and out of the aquifer has been drastically altered; the aquifer cannot charge, or discharge in the same way; ever again.
There is nothing that could convince me to move my family to California.
Incidentally, I’ve played this market prediction game with myself multiple times- and my accuracy record is – lousy! So far! 🙂
I never try to predict what the “”markets”” will do within any operational time frame. Which is why I have no financial investments of any kind. What I HAVE done is act on the kind of thinking that TAE and Chris Martenson and Steve Keen and Gail Tverberg and co have been doing in public for the last dozen years or so.
I have no idea whether my actions will have made me and my family any more able to mitigate what is coming than someone who has done nothing at all, but there will be a grim satisfaction in being able to place on my headstone, “he was ahead of the curve for a while and he did his best”.
Assuming I can afford a headstone.
Assuming there are even graveyards functioning.
As a permaculturist, I would prefer to go back into the soil right here and close my final loop anyway.
Rapier- I would also like to hear Ilargi’s ideas here. I think the answer lies in this article; by a professor from Athens: “All reforms will be put on hold for about six weeks”. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34020627
Tsipras has managed – regardless of what journalists say about cause and effect – to keep the can rolling down the street; which means banks open, wheels turning, Greeks just a tad less desperate. Either he’s an idiot – or he, Varoufakis, and their friends – are very, very smart. I’d go with smart.
Greenpa,
Been enjoying your posts.
Here is one of my favorite poems which speaks of our demise. It is by the Italian, Tomasso Capanella, titled “The People” (translated by John Addington Symonds).
The people is a beast of muddy brain
That knows not its own force, and therefore stands
Loaded with wood and stone, the powerless hands
Of a mere child guide it with bit and rein.One kick would be enough to break the chain;
But the beast fears, and what the child demands,
It does; nor its own terror understands,
Confused and stupefied by bugbears vain.Most wonderful! with its own hands it ties
And gags itself–gives itself death and war
For pence doled out by kings from its own stores.Its own are all things between earth and heaven,
But this it knows not; and if one arise
To tell this truth, it kills him unforgiven.Greenpa et al,
I do think there are quite a few vey smart guys in Syriza -and in Popular Unity. But I also think some of the unity and friendships have taken a beating throughout 2015. Chances are that the entire bailout thing will be brought back on the table through the outcome of the upcoming elections. We’re not done.
I’m curious to see where Zoë Constantopooulou and Yanis Varoufakis end up. He insists he’s in it to stay. But he also says he won’t run with Tsipras. Who yesterday really offended Zoë. Can’t see either of them go with Lafazanis as a leader, either, though.
It all looks quite fluid to me. One thing’s certain: the protagonists need to sit down and talk. But ego’s may be too bruised to do that in time for the elections.
One last thing: Syriza under Tsipras had gone as far as it could. It was over no matter what. Elections were inevitable, not only because of changed relationships, but certainly also to find a way forward. And it’s very possible that Tsipras has calculated all that.
Long Varoufakis interview today in the Observer:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/23/yanis-varoufakis-convicted-high-treason-interview-greece-finance-minister-syrizaChris M – thanks. And thanks for the introduction to Capanella; I was not familiar with his saga. I found it fascinating that I have long been an admirer of a near contemporary of his; Torquato Tasso. For similar reasons, Tasso wound up thrown into a madhouse, Capanella into prison. It’s a risky business, writing about the plebeians and the patricians… particularly when you illuminate the one to the other- both eventually really resent it, as Socrates learned. 🙂
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