Debt Rattle January 7 2017


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    Edward Hopper Gloucester Beach, Bass Rocks 1924   UPDATE: There still seems to be a problem with our Paypal widget/account that makes donating -b
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle January 7 2017]

    V. Arnold

    I have to say; I didn’t understand the economic data presented today
    It’s all a blurr.
    Perhaps I need another gin and tonic…

    Dr. D

    Pensions are screwed, but not because of dollar signs. Stop thinking about the money: what happened is we have 2 people who receive goods for every 1 person creating them. …And there is no productive capacity in the economy, while health care is taking 20% of national wealth, not 5-10%. K? Or as Greenspan said, “This dramatic demographic change [i.e. retirement] is certain to place enormous demands on our nation’s resources — demands we will almost surely be unable to meet.”

    Back to the money, as we’ve noticed over the last 10 years, things never seem to materialize in a straight line. Printing = inflation? Nope. Direct bond purchases lead to currency rejection? Nope. Total collapse of the economy and 25% structural unemployment leads to Dow falling? Nope. So why this time? What’s likely to happen is the U.S. (market? money system?) being slightly less terrible than China and Europe, will attract “investment” i.e. inflation, aka “money” home. Isn’t that what GGG said? This is the kind of flip that happened in UK’s post WWI and pre WWII gold flows that made the 20’s tech mania and the Great Depression. That heavy money could give the Fed a hard time, driving up rates in an environment that just added another $70T worldwide. What did Charles Smith just ask? What kind of problems can’t be solved by their only tool, printing money? Too much money. So we have Inflation, finally by it’s real definition, or really Stagflation, price rises with collapsing economy. Where do people hide then as bond values collapse with a rate rise? Well, lots of places, but as demonstrated in Venezuela, hollow 3rd world economies like ours show a lot of that money flees into stocks. Stocks rise: yay! MAGA and all that. Hey, if the 1% technocrats get rich, (by crushing 99% of the population) there’s no resistance, no impeachment. However that value of those stocks fall as either the cost of living rises faster or worse there are outright shortages, in our case because foreign imports are shut off. This would be pretty typical of markets once topping the trendline, to have a wacky, unstable, blowoff top. Markets don’t usually stop without one. But it’s not a “rise”, it’s a flaw of the measurement tool, the plummeting value of dollars. Oh, and it’s not the stock side of pensions that fail, but given their asset allocation, the much larger, “safer” bond side.

    Since people will flee the currency and stocks that go up but don’t keep pace, where else will they go? Can’t go into Euros, Yuan, Rubles, Pounds; so sensible or not, why not cryptocurrencies? Yes, probably. And after this season, the world will begin to look different. Having driven the US$ out of sole reserve currency, production, and consumption will be more fair and normal. But back to pensions, yes, they can rise 20%, but the classic, time-honored way to screw the pensioners worldwide for 100 years in a row is to inflate the value away. Or as Greenspan said, “We can guarantee cash, but we cannot guarantee purchasing power.”

    Remember, the dollar doesn’t have to drop. Drop against what? Europe? Good God no. But long-manipulated markets like commodities, against gold, against shortages due to terrible EM dislocations and a hollow economy, sure. US$ paper drops vs what? Non-paper. Reality. Real things. Or you thought like Karl Rove, you could avoid reality and accurate price discovery forever and ever, amen? So fake and hollow promises, fraud, theft and inefficiency drop against reality and delivery of real goods. We’ll all be a lot healthier for it, but no one’s going to like it.

    Dr. D

    Jeez, states cry like little babies when after crushing their people with generations high taxes, shown by the population flight, and killed their industry and economies, now don’t have the Feds subsidize their outrageous abuse. Not only that, at the $10,000 level. Isn’t that “tax the rich”? And this is “unconstitutional”? People like Cuomo and Malloy haven’t cared about the Constitution since the day they were born until it cuts into their private money-hose. Federal mandates, unlimited search-and-seizure, police shooting citizens like dogs, gun laws, immigration, welfare and education leading to collapse of civil society? Nope, nothing to see here. But cut off a slightly higher payday for my jet-setting pals paying taxes over $10,000/yr? OMG. The fire of a thousand suns. And they wonder why the public no longer sees the Democrats as the party of the people and the working man and is losing elections.

    I could say the same things of Corbyn and Europe.


    Change is happening.

    Are the numbers of commenters on this blog the same as the numbers of readers?

    Todays Modifiers

    1. Bullies and their victimes – scales from unwanted sexual misconducts to right up to destroying countries and their economic/social structures.
    2. Social media – twitters. facebook, e-mails, WikiLeaks
    3. Bitcoin
    4. Fake news/propaganda
    5. Painkillers – cannabis to fentanyl
    6. Pension cash flow shortfall


    “Scientists Lament The Likely Loss Of ‘Most Of The World’s Coral Reefs’ (Grist) ”

    Typical “polar bear” nonsense. The reefs are organic matter for heavens sake!

    These things go through cycles – like the population of elk or wolves or insects or birds.

    Scientists surprised that reef that survived the hotter Holocene is already recovering from 2016 bleaching (sarcasm)

    The “bleaching” of the northern end of the GBR was due to the exceptional drop in sea levels at that location two years ago – due to the el Niño.

    Coral exposed to sunlight dies – and it has always been thus. It grows from the sea-floor and builds up until it gets close to the surface – then it stops growing. There no such a thing as a coral hill – and that is why it is so dangerous to sailors. It is not geological like volcanoes that climb from the depths and form mountains.


    “Are the numbers of commenters on this blog the same as the numbers of readers?”


    The visitor statistics are here:

    I think this website is doing pretty well. 348,000 visits per month is around 11,000 per day. Most visitors (74%) seem to be repeat visitors. sends quite a few people here. However, I agree that few people leave comments.


    Thank you!
    I did not know of that site.


    Here is an example of how the media in Australia – in cooperation with the Bureau of Meteorology – is plugging “global warming” in order to get more subsidies for wind-turbines, batteries and PV cells.

    Our current prime minister – an extremely wealthy man – has a son who is heavily involved in the wind-turbine racket. The PM was head of Goldman Sachs of Australia and they were advisers to HIH – which became the largest corporate collapse in Australian history. Both GS and Turnbull were cleared by a Royal Commission.

    The Rise of Malcolm Turnbull: Staggering Wealth, Surprising Aggression, Substantial Intellect

    Sydney hits its highest temperature recorded since 1939 with Penrith reaching 47.3C

    1- The temperature at this location has only been recorded since 1995
    2- The temperature is measured very differently from the way it was measured historically.
    3- The temperature nearby was much hotter (50C) in 1896 – despite the instruments being far less sensitive than is the case today.

    A more comprehensive rebuttal:

    Sydney “hottest ever” mistake generates fake news

    ABC – Australian Broadcasting Corporation – is government run just like the Bureau of Meteorology.

    V. Arnold

    Dr. D
    Gee, you sound like me. 😉
    Well put. We’ve got our seat belts fastened (actually, for some time now).

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