Debt Rattle May 5 2020


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    G.G. Bain ‘Casino Theater playing musical ‘The Little Whopper’, NY 1920   • 30,000 New Cases, 3,000 New Deaths Daily Expected in US (CNN) • New P
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle May 5 2020]


    What happens when you don’t tell lies?

    I don’t know. Ask Assange.

    Dr. D

    “President Donald Trump now knows the price of the haunting bargain required to reopen the country — tens of thousands more lives in a pandemic that is getting worse not better.”

    No, he is making a bargain of whether MORE people will die of a lockdown or if more will die in an economy that stops making food. Since 1 in 10,000 die of the disease but 100% die of no food, no prize for guessing which is more dangerous.

    “The total was more than double the same organization’s estimate last month.”

    You mean the estimates and the organization that’s been totally, catastrophically wrong since Day 1, is 25 million deaths short, and was also wrong about the last 10 pandemics? Yeah, let’s listen to them. Still waiting to die of AIDS and the level 6 Ebola pandemic.

    A new forecast projects nearly 135,000 deaths … mainly due to reopening measures.”

    Okay let me be an expert forecaster here using NIH’s own numbers. 30M unemployed, moved from 4% official to 15% estimated. 40k die prematurely per 1%. 11% x 20k = 440,000 killed from the voluntary shutdown. That’s not including food shortages and lack of preventative medical care in empty hospitals. So why are my official, NIH numbers silly, when their IHME numbers are smart? Wouldn’t both be true and need to be weighed? Experts tend to be narrowly focused while we need systems analysis.

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says the country will not have open borders with the rest of the world for “a long time to come”.

    I thought this was hateful and racist. In fact we should have no borders in Europe or indeed the whole planet. What happened? Where are your principles?

    “France’s First Known COVID19 Case ‘Was in December’ (BBC)”

    Science. Knowing less every day.

    “US Treasury Seeks to Borrow a Record $3 Trillion this Quarter (CNBC)”

    “Borrow”? From whom? Since the Fed and Treasury have merged, isn’t this no longer “borrowed”, i.e. from selling Treasuries to China, but in fact entirely “printed” and monetized by the Fed? It’s easy to tell since Europe, China, Japan have no $3T trade deficit or spare cash from a hot economy to buy anything.

    This will come into play later on. The core currency dies last.

    Which leads to the question: while we’re all distracted with conflicting, emotional non-stories, what events are happening out there that we’re not hearing about? What are they getting away with while keeping us in a dizzy spin of pure nonsense? Well, $3T went to insiders just now to buy assets crippled by the lockdown they created.

    The companies plan to allow only public health authorities to use the technology.

    Well, let’s see: they lied and let all info out there to everyone in the Cambridge Analytics scandal, Zoom has no security at all, a 5-year-old can get in, and all of them have had “hacks” pretty much constantly where outsiders steal all your data which can never be made private again. So why is letting them do any of this not a joke and a hazard again?

    But don’t worry: they can never be discredited. There will never be consequences to any action, ever again. Amen. They’ll abuse you every day, remain experts, and everyone will come back for more.

    Besides, tons of apps – WalMart and Susan Komen for example – already track your GPS every 15 minutes and sell it to everyone. Surprise! No surprise! Why do they sell it? Clearly because whoever buys it can take money from you at your expense to make it worth their while. That is: You’re the Product, not the consumer. You’re the cow, not the farmer.

    what’s the use of discussing vaccination certificates when there’s no vaccine?”

    Because they created the vaccine before releasing the virus? Because the vaccine doesn’t need to work or could maim tens of thousands by ‘accident’ in the rush, but it would just be “aw, shucks, whooda knowd” like usual? Just spitballing here.

    Since we’re almost at herd immunity already, and will be by the time they get organized, what benefit would a passport have? So they’re saying we can’t have herd immunity to Covid? Then what’s the vaccine? They’re really, really bad at math and don’t have any sense of time but do have a great sense of power and profit? (A: Yes) They also don’t understand computers or humans. A) the passport will break, people will hack and change them for amusement like the no-fly list, the data will get errors that mean you can’t go anywhere or do anything: looking at you, Julian. B) Humans will immediately forge them, borrow, rent, and swap them. C) illegals and alcoholics already drive all the time with no driver’s licenses. D) requires Stalinist state to back-up the passport with violent force. Otherwise, why would I participate? Why pay for the vast physical and bureaucratic overhead? E) Tainter pointed out that the fastest way to permanent Collapse was adding ever-increasing complexity and overhead.

    But sure: let’s create an expensive, complex system that won’t work, arrives too late, creates a Stalinist surveillance state, and causes total societal collapse. Why not? Apparently no one can learn otherwise.

    “‘Time Has Come’ For Universal Basic Income – Scottish PM Sturgeon (Ind.)”

    One thing you learn from history: nobody learns anything from history. 150 years later, 300 million people dead, still trying this. Still considered credible. Still much-desired by the very people always murdered by it.

    “near-unlivable” temperatures averaging 29 degrees through the year by 2070”

    Okay, so these guys have only been dead-wrong for 40 years. Polar ice gone! Manhattan underwater! It’s snowing in Lebanon, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico. 110+ more years and 329 million more people to go before we can ask to discredit them too.

    Oh and P.S., they were using computers. That guarantees their conclusions are garbage. Can’t even remember the last time a computer model was accurate. Or scientific paper. Or media report…

    Assange Extradition Hearing Delayed Until September (PR)”

    These are the guys you want to give Stalinist passport powers to. Okay. And they claim humans are a rational animal.

    “The whole agenda is … where … All money will be in your chips. And so, instead of having cash, any time you have money in your chip, they can take out whatever they want to take out whenever they want to…

    And, if you’re like me or you, and if you’re protesting what they’re doing, they can just turn off your chip. And you’ll have nothing. You can’t buy food. You can’t do anything. It’s total control of the people.” –Aaron Russo

    “Can’t we just drone this guy?” –Hillary Clinton

    No need: accidentally shut off his vaccine passport and walk away til he dies. Oopsie! Shut up and take my money! Where do I sign?



    “Borrow”? From whom? …..”

    Everybody is borrowing.

    Who is lending?

    Nobody wants to tell the truth.


    Maxwell Quest

    For those who may have missed it, Chris Martenson gave an excellent presentation yesterday on the origins of the new Covid-19 virus. For a guy who normally goes out of his way to remain objective, doing his best to leave emotion and bias out of his analysis, he makes the claim that the top virologists are lying to the public about the virus being a natural occurrence.

    Of course they are! Like the kid who burns down the house while playing with matches, they’ll lie like hell to shield themselves from accountability and retribution.

    Dr. D

    “Elvis Was King, Ike Was President, & 116,000 Americans Died In A Pandemic”

    Elvis Was King, Ike Was President, and 116,000 Americans Died in a Pandemic

    The population was 157M HALF of today.

    No one noticed. Had no effect.

    “Shut it all down, Mr. President. Shut all that food down.”

    Dr. D


    “One in five Wendy’s is out of beef, analyst says”

    But we don’t need to work! We’ll print money!

    Happy yet?


    Hmmm- New Zealand…isn’t that where all sorts of fancy people bought “bug-out” properties? Will someone keep an eye on the skies over NZ and make sure no airplanes fly in or out (except to Australia ’cause they don’t have the virus?!?)
    Oh, wait: “Both Australia and New Zealand have closed their borders to ALMOST all foreigners…”
    Phew. For a minute there I thought I couldn’t fly my private jet to my 20 acre estate on that lake in NZ. /s

    The soul gets bent in isolation, and hearts grow cold in a lockdown nation.

    It’s time to read Lewis’s “That Hideous Strength” again.

    Oh- and Whitney’s done it again over at last american vagabond. Don’t read it before bedtime.


    Here’s my nomination for “the one guy who gets it”, and it ain’t Taleb:

    My day was greatly improved by waking to the story of Nial Fergusson also:

    Honestly… What. A Complete. Douche. Which is a nice and timely reinforcement of a couple of Ramins keys points:
    – why do the vast majority genuflect to scientists and reporters? (well, science is the new secular religion, so scientists must be it’s mysterious and incomprehensible priests)
    – the collective wisdom of the (intelligent) is the *only* effective counterbalance to coteries and cloisters of “expertise”. Every. Single. Time. individuals and small peer groups wind up captured by the big money.

    In a similar vein, the “Safe Climate Niche Closing Fast” article reeks to high heaven. “We surprised ourselves, so spent a year checking our model” is some dumb-assed BS. Just publish your model and let a crowd full of fresh eyes tear it to pieces.
    The article on climate


    And on the subject of modelling, I linked a little while back to this study, which replicated the official modelling used in NZ to justify the L4 lockdown:
    Harrison reached out to the universities/authors of the original studies for comments on his critique before he published. He didn’t get a response, naturally (imagine scientists deigning to respond to reasoned criticism..). The original modelers did manage to get out a backhand dissing of Harrison in the NZ MSM though, to which Harrison has just published a rebuttal and followup article:

    The fact is Harrison (with a thorough expertise in economic modelling) shows a vastly better understanding of the limits and constraints of the epidemiology model than the epidemiologists themselves. Up to and including building a better model than the fairly crude Covid-Sim which is widely used.
    Dethrone the “experts” and apply some goddam competence. Ensure models and background data are widely published (no, not the overly-aggregated Worldometer BS.. some solid data sets that expose useful data sets and correlations).
    Publish facts about economic consequences (GDP decline, unemployment) alongside case stats so that there is meaningful discussion about what range of interventions are within a reasonable “Goldilocks zone”.
    And do this on a *regional* basis – what is right for NYC is *not* right for rural Iowa. It’s impossible to discuss important correlations such as population density and air quality on an overly aggregated basis, and it’s produced months of virtually meaningless noise (“debate” oversells it’s value).


    We got the making of a good book.
    There are great writers on this blog..

    1. lab. A was working on a flue cure.
    2. Holy shit! We made something worst. Deep clean the lab of all evidence.
    3. Pass the the technique etc. to lab. B with sample of raw material. Don’t tell of the wrong outcome.
    4. Lab B has Chinese scientists who take sample to China for further reseach.
    5. Lab C does better than lab A
    6. Virus escape from Chinese lab C.
    7. Lab A , sign of relief. Blames Chinese.
    8. USA saves the world by cooperating with other countries.
    9. The rest of the plot is history. Peace, and happiness everywhere with the surviving populations of the world.

    V. Arnold


    Sorry to see you go. Was it a difference of opinion? I hope that isn’t the reason.
    It’s the very diversity of opinions which add color and food for thought.
    Ilargi’s choice of art works is almost enough in itself; but his writing is well thought out and offers a quality not easy to find in these times.
    Dust yourself off, get up, and continue the battle… 😉


    We got the making of a good book.
    There are great writers on this blog..

    Now that international travel is mostly shut down, and we can hear war drums in the distance, and we have learned that they can reconstruct the entire virus in a lab, how about something more sinister: Now they start intentionally unleashing the more lethal experimental variants.


    Here in Ontario we have been in lockdown for two months and so far the Covid-19 spread has not allowed nor has the curve flattened any.

    Now governments everywhere are having to open up the economy as the lockdowns have seemed to have had little effect in achieving the initial goals used to initiate the lockdowns.

    Ontario has not used the time the lockdown supposedly gained them to ramp up testing nor anything else to deal with Covid-19.

    Sadly I suspect the same poor results are occurring elsewhere too.


    One last thing to consider in conjunction with the reports I referenced above:
    After 9 years in the political wilderness, the NZ Labour party took power at the last election, but only by forming a coalition with two other parties (NZ First and the Greens). For most of their term they’ve polled in the 40% region.. sometimes in the low 40s. They’ve been greatly helped in their term by the leadership of the rival National party, which is truly ghastly.
    Now, off the back of the Covid equivalent of being a wartime president, Jacinda’s party are polling well into the 50’s. The fact they’ve suspended Parliament and co-opted the National leader onto a “bipartisan” Covid committee which has completely muted the Parliamentary role of the Opposition has certainly helped Labour’s polling.
    Meanwhile, look at Harrison’s review of the NZ Covid model above and realise that placing a canned of tinned tomatoes in charge (in lieu of Jacinda) and simply continuing the pre-existing contact tracing policies was projected by the government modelers to result in 140 (total) lives lost. No hospital overwhelm.
    We’ve now spent several billion dollars and growing, saving ~120 (mostly elderly) lives. I dare say we could’ve achieved a sizable amount of the same result spending a small fraction of that sum on effective cordon sanitaire and substantial testing around nursing homes.
    But to read it on the MSM (and regularly linked here), Jacinda Ardern is the gender fluid second coming of the lord JC, and NZ’s biggest potential future export is an AI clone of her to placate feverish populations worldwide..
    In absence of published facts and rational debate around any complex event such as pandemic, the balance of risk and opportunity is vastly weighted to politicians doing what they’ve always done best – selecting the easiest path to re-election. Supported by scientists, whose publications and predictions mysteriously happen to align with the political needs de jour.

    V. Arnold

    Sadly I suspect the same poor results are occurring elsewhere too.

    No, actually that is not true.
    Asia in general, and Thailand specifically, have been very effective in “flattening the curve”.
    Tuesday; 1 new case, no new deaths (54 total), and 2,988 total cases.
    This in a country of 63 million people.
    Begrudgingly; I agree “lockdown” is a correct response. Life for us (both retired) hasn’t changed significantly. we come and go for shopping, etc. For the working population/business owners, it’s been really hard; but the government is helping the poor families with ฿5,000/month (about $155 USD), which is just below the average income here.
    Healthcare is excellent and available to everyone; and free for those infected with CV-19.
    The fight is being fought on 3 fronts; medically, economically, and socially.
    That degree of unity is a winning combination, IMO.
    The numbers speak volumes…


    V. Arnold

    Do you recall, how, in the beginning of the flu in China, that because of poor bathroom habits, the poor and dirty Asians were going to get decimated?
    Well, so far, your telling me that it didn’t happen.
    So, why is the USA number one?


    A lovely post at the Saker- thanks Huskynut, I haven’t been there in a while.
    There are bad days and good days. Today was good, as more and more comments on posts show folks are checking the numbers (such as they are) and becoming increasingly wary. “Manditory WHAT?” I expected more from religious people and sports fans. I also wonder at the spectacle of the US acting petrified. I am not a fan of the national preparedness types, but something is not right when the US military nurses its wounds in public.
    But good days go sour when I realize we don’t get any webnews that isn’t “allowed”. The confusion and the fast/tedious/fast/slow pace of things seems to be playing into a bigger game of mass strife and chaos. “Don’t trust anybody” isn’t much better than “trust your overlords”. That said:
    I think Fauci stands out like a pimple on the night before prom. He’s gonna get squeezed.

    V. Arnold

    Do you recall, how, in the beginning of the flu in China, that because of poor bathroom habits, the poor and dirty Asians were going to get decimated?
    Well, so far, your telling me that it didn’t happen.
    So, why is the USA number one?

    Number 1 for what? Maybe CV-19; certainly nothing else any longer…
    An indifferent government/elite class? Very poor bathroom habits (toilet paper? Yuck!)? An ignorant population?
    Poor to non-existant healthcare?
    Need I go on? Take your pick; all of the above?
    My experience with Lao, Kampuchean, and Thai people is the exact opposite; cleanest people I’ve ever known…


    V. Arnold

    “All of the above.”

    Next, the virus attacks, mainly,
    1. the old that have other conditions.
    2. the blacks and the mexicans in the USA

    I would reword it by saying
    The virus kills mostly the old and the poor servants sent to take care of the old.

    Is the virus passed on by the servants to the old or is the virus passed on to the servants by the old?


    We’ve now spent several billion dollars and growing, saving ~120 (mostly elderly) lives.

    Huskynut, you live in a land that has stopped the spread virus and you are complaining that it cost a few billion dollars? And you won’t give any credit at all to your government? I find that to be a really bizarre perspective.


    So in the beginning the models said that millions would die in the US unless the government imposed the hammer of lockdowns and social distancing. So the government imposed lockdowns and social distancing, the death rate is much lower, and now the critics-who-will-never-be-satisfied proclaim that the models were wrong becasue millions have not died.

    Fauci comes out and says 100,000-200,000 deaths in the US, and the critics-who-will-never-be-satisfied go nuts decrying that the policy response was overkill. But without any data for what the death rate would have been without the hammer.

    Then Fauci gets pressure from his boss to lower the number to justify reopening the economy, so he lowers the number to 60,000 and the critics-who-will-never-be-satisfied go bananas. They say all of the models were totally worthless from the start, and everyone should just get back to work.

    Then the US sails right past 60,000, and seems on course to end up at Fauci’s original estimate, or even higher. That’s vindication, right? But what do we hear from the critics-who-will-never-be-satisfied? Nothing but crickets.

    V. Arnold

    Is the virus passed on by the servants to the old or is the virus passed on to the servants by the old?

    A bit of both?
    Actually, I have no idea… 😉


    Hi Boogaloo
    “Huskynut, you live in a land that has stopped the spread virus and you are complaining that it cost a few billion dollars? And you won’t give any credit at all to your government? I find that to be a really bizarre perspective.”
    I do them some credit, but it seems like I start from a different baseline than most. Unlike many who seem to start from “well at least that’s better than Trump”, I begin with the expectation that the PM (who has sought and received the position of greatest government authority, who is well-paid, and will subsequently enjoy a cushy sinecure on NZ company Boards for the rest of their life) will do a damn good job, or else receive fair criticism for not doing so.
    NZ inherited an easy start compared to most countries, due to geographical remoteness, pretty low average population density, generally clean air, modern (public) health care system etc. Yet we’ve experienced one of the most severe lock-downs in the world (at a high economic cost)
    That’s not a sign of great management – that’s a sign of comparatively lazy excess-of-caution management. Australia by comparision has done just as well with a less severe lock-down, including most businesses remaining open.
    When I learn that the “science” behind NZ’s approach was grossly cherry-picked (presumably to game the public into accepting the excess severity of approach), then yeah I get mad as hell. The government has willfully chosen to manipulate it’s population, many of whom will pay dearly for it.
    If I were a journalist, I’d be dying to get my hands on a story like this. It’d be a potential career-maker in any rational world. But mostly what I hear is “meh”.
    Journalistic standards have dropped *so* low. People’s expectations of politicians and industry have dropped *so* low. It’s like a giant depression has come across the entire world, and apart from small pockets the response to anything practically including nuclear armageddon is “wake me up when GoT is over”.
    I don’t want to settle for living like that, so I’ll try and be honestly critical of all who seek higher office (and the rewards therefof).


    Huskynut, I think you make fair and well thought-out points. The world has changed just so quickly and past frames of reference are less accurate than they were. I guess I am strangely positioned on how I feel about the economy/health arguments. I must admit to a long hoped for desire to see globalisation wound back to levels that had lower impact on environmental systems. I also strangely like the idea of Dr D’s racist slant at Jacinda. I find Soros to be the evil of 2 lessers and would sooner see slow food movement waft it’s vibe over to all manner of international trade. I also love the idea of cells, neighbourhoods, coastlines etc with firmer and more sturdy borders and boundaries than what we have had with international travel meaning there is barely a membrane to penetrate anywhere.

    Having said all that I also appreciate the need to keep people working and fed and this is far from a transition and more like a slammed door.


    I don’t want to settle for living like that, so I’ll try and be honestly critical of all who seek higher office (and the rewards therefof).

    Huskynut, I am all in favor of demanding more from those in higher office. In most countries the problem is that governments did too little too late. In time you may appreciate what you now regard as an unscientific, poorly-informed, over-reaction that makes a blind squirrel look like a hero for finding an acorn by accident. I am hoping that the countries that have beat this thing will open up their borders to other “safe” countries with rigorous controls in place. Korea has already started experimenting with this and opened a direct flight to Austria in recognition that Austria has been very aggressive in fighting the virus. The first flight was earlier this week, and I understand that was one of only three flights that landed at VIE that day. Maybe the same thing can happen between Korea and NZ — I would love to visit NZ, and I assume that Kiwis would welcome visitors from countries that have contained this thing.

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