Debt Rattle September 18 2015


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    John Vachon Assassin of Youth November 1938 • The Fed Gives Growth a Chance (NY Times ed.) • Fed Delay Looks Like 2013 All Over Again-Rate Hike in Dec
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle September 18 2015]


    Regarding the refugee crisis……

    Brussels is the new Nero, fiddling while Rome/Athens/et al burn.

    All member states need to send refugees DIRECTLY on paid buses & trains to Brussels.

    Maybe house some of them in that fancy new building :))

    Why is everyone insulating Brussels?…..sorry….rhetorical question :))


    “..the economy shows no signs of overheating..”

    indeed. Alas the proofreader did not correct it to a more accurate “..the economy shows no signs of breathing..”


    There exist a major shortfall of food.
    We need calories to stay alive.
    Sedentary lifestyle – if you do very little or no exercise at all,
Your daily calorie requirement will be about 1,500.
    UN food relief program faces funding shortfall as refugee crisis worsens

    A quick calculation is in order.
    4 million refugees are not contributing to the production of calories.
    4 million refugees require a minimum of 1,500 calories per day from the producers/farmers.

    There are 205 calories in 1 cup (5.6 oz) of Long Grain White Rice, cooked without salt. You’d need to walk 54 minutes to burn 205 calories.
    (4 million x 1,500 calories x 365 days x 7 cups rice)
    Hungry people want to eat. WE ARE IN TROUBLE.

    Stone Lodge

    Re: OPEC Assumes Oil Price Will Recover Gradually to $80 in 2020 & Defaults Mount in Beleaguered US Energy Industry — I wonder what OPEC would think of a prognostication that oil would be virtually priceless by 2020? The second of these two articles is the road sign pointing to such a prediction, IMO. As the zombie debt-fueled shale oil “miracle” unwinds, along with the almost-as-burdened oil majors industry, this current and ongoing deflation is killing their ability to produce in the future, and by the time 2020 rolls around (by which time the GFC will have transitioned into the Great Global Civilization Collapse (GGCC)), OPEC’s projections of $80 oil will be laughable. But like you said, Raul: What else are they going to say?

    Re: Bitcoin Is Officially a Commodity — The CFTC is the carpet that oversight gets swept under, as with its “oversight” of precious metal “markets” manipulations. Bitcoin’s allure was its separation from regulatory control, and thus its immunity from manipulation by JPM, Citi, HSBC, and DB. That could hardly be countenanced, and so voila! It is now a “commodity”, and there ya go — the banking biggies now have their “regulator” in play. Now the Bitcoin exchanges will have to “follow[] the same rules applicable to all participants in the commodity derivatives markets.” We all know how well that has worked for the silver and gold paper market. (Fair notice: I have never owned or dealt in Bitcoin, and had avoided the crypto-currency for, among other things, the reason that I felt it would eventually be descended upon by the banking biggies and their lapdogs.)

    Note to Raul: I’ve posted comments a couple times now, and they have not appeared on the site. I am wondering if that is because I am in unknowing violation of some TOU, or a technical glitch of some kind?

    Edit: I see this one (obviously) posted just fine…


    I’m very curious about global shipping as an important key indicator of world economics. It’s easy to get commodities prices for some things, but for world trade/economy I want info on global bulk shipping.

    Anyone good at research? My work is too heavy right now to do this myself, but I’d like to know what trends this conference saw, even though I can guess the bad news. I like hard data.

    Major Listed Companies Participate on Dry Bulk Shipping Panel at Capital Link’s 7th Annual Global Commodities, Energy & Shipping Forum on Wednesday, September 16, 2015 – New York City

    The Forum discusses trends and developments in key dry and wet commodities markets and how these impact shipping. It combines the view point on one hand of commodity producers, traders, end users and major charterers and on the other hand of vessel owners and operators attracting major industry participants. The Forum also discusses the interaction between physical and derivatives markets, including commodity derivatives, dry bulk and tanker FFAs, and issues related to the use of derivatives for trading and risk management.


    Thanks, seychelles – that answers the question I had in mind and looks like the Baltic Dry Index is not a leading indicator. Perhaps with other commodity and manufacturing data it would show what is happening now. Is there any good leading indicator? I suppose if there was I’d have heard about it by now.

    Stone Lodge

    I’m not sure what y’all are looking for, in terms of “leading indicators.” But if the BDI gives you a snapshot NOW of how many ships are sitting in dock without cargoes, how is that not helpful? What is it you want? A yellow brick road? A big red button that says “PUSH NOW!”?

    Look, my suggestion, since you are concerned about this, is to look up the stats on letters of credit (LOCs). That should give you some forward guidance, though I’m not sure of that. I’m not sure where those play into the various volatility indices, but I’m pretty sure they do. If folks are edgy about accepting credit, then they’re buying insurance, right?

    If I sound dismissive, I apologize for any bruised feelings. I really find all this market-watching shite abrasive. I mean, if you’re investing, then your invested. And you’re screwed. You will never unravel how the market can turn in your favor and make you fabulously rich. If you are intertwined with the markets when the markets collapse, then good speed to you; you’ll need it. Maybe you’ll get lucky. Probably not.

    Get simple. I watch the markets just so I know whether it’s a good time to buy heating oil for my home. (It is, btw.) The markets cannot hurt me.

    Can they hurt you?

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