Spain WILL Need a Bailout Soon

 

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  • #8562

    ashvin
    Participant

    If the recent history of the unfolding Eurozone crisis is instructive, Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy’s unconditional statement today that his country will
    [See the full post at: Spain WILL Need a Bailout Soon]

    #2578

    jal
    Participant

    What else would one expect when trying to solve a debt problem by piling on more layers of unproductive debt?

    Exchange/replace the “unproductive debt” for a cash producing/generating asset. (printing press heheheh)

    #2579

    ashvin
    Participant

    jal post=2184 wrote:

    What else would one expect when trying to solve a debt problem by piling on more layers of unproductive debt?

    Exchange/replace the “unproductive debt” for a cash producing/generating asset. (printing press heheheh)

    Yes, that’s one of the things that the EZ periphery including Spain need to do. Print away their debts, or, better still, establish a legitimate debt moratorium/forgiveness program. They cannot do either of those things in a meaningful way as long as they remain a part of the Union.

    #2580

    jal
    Participant

    establish a legitimate debt moratorium/forgiveness program.

    The best way to do that is to move the un-performing debts to a “structure” that will save the banks. (keep the banks from going bankrupt. An equivalent F&F)

    #2581

    Anonymous

    Ash, I read recently on ZH about the possibly near introduction of Floating Rate Notes by the US Treasury. ZH seems to think this is a huge deal. I reread the article as well as posted questions on their blog, but I still haven’t had it explained to me in a way I can understand. Would you be willing to what ZH and Prof Singh are trying to say about the significance of FRN and why that means to “Get Out of Dodge” (do they mean Equities?) in this post:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/if-1951-accord-any-indication-treasurys-imminent-launch-floaters-will-be-signal-get-out-dodge

    Thank you!

    #2582

    ashvin
    Participant

    MayAllBWell,

    Sure. I don’t have time tonight, but I’ll take a look tomorrow and get back to you.

    #2583

    Golden Oxen
    Participant

    Everyone is going to need a bailout soon. Let’s not go down the list one at a time with the attendant nitty gritty. Can they print there way out of this debt horror or can’t they? Therein lies the rub.

    #2584

    pipefit
    Participant

    Spain will need a bailout, but they won’t take the same austerity package that Greece took, Greece style, lol. Spain’s unemployment is way too high already.

    Gonzalo Lira thinks Spain will be the first out of the Euro, but he’s usually wrong. My guess is that they get an ‘accommodation’, of some sort.

    They’ve already broken every treaty they have over there, so it won’t be that difficult to shovel several hundred billion Euros into the Spanish coffer on a Sunday night.

    #2587

    TheTrivium4TW
    Participant

    Hi All,

    “Printing” is just as much a default as defaulting. The only difference is WHO will take the loss.

    Will it be the debtors or the debt holders?

    The debtors are obviously banking, pun intended on the debt holders taking the loss.

    That’s an interesting bet since the debt holders will decide who will take the loss – and they’ve ripped the face of the debtors every chance they’ve had up until now.

    QE was not about helping the economy any more than the Fed has a dual mandate (they don’t – read Section 2A of the Federal Reserve Act for yourself – their mandate is singular… they are lying and so is academia and the media).

    Quantative Easing was all about using public money to quantitatively ease the losses of the inner party players at the expense of everyone else.

    In other words, they used public money to 1. get better prices for themselves as they exit the markets and 2. make sure the public is blasted with even more debt as the bag holders for the various markets.

    Someone claimed I was wrong when I claimed the debt holders would make the debtors pay, not themselves.

    They claimed derivatives meant the debt holders would bail out the debtors.

    Last I heard, the derivatives were bets against higher interest rates (the bank side, anyway). It sounds to me like they will collapse the economy, drive rates down near zero and then use government to invalidate all those derivatives just before they hyperinflate to balance their books.

    The table is tilted, people. The game is rigged.

    JP Morgan isn’t giving out 4% 30 mortgages because they are going to super inflate anytime soon.

    They haven’t ripped off debtor faces for decades only to bail them out at the end.

    These are some cold SOBs.

    “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. The one aim of these financiers is world control by the creation of inextinguishable debt.”
    ~Henry Ford

    Got that? Ford was in a very good position to know – and he’s dead on about people not understanding Debt Dollar Tyranny, too.

    #2588

    Coco
    Member

    Debt forgiveness in Spain begins at the top – the ¨conservative¨ government already issued an amnesty for all those who were hiding assets to avoid paying taxes. 10% tax and all is forgiven – no matter how much or how long it was hidden.

    And Mariano Rajoy, the newly elected PM with an absolute majority, is skulking out the back of congress to avoid anwering questions.

    https://southofwatford.blogspot.com.es/

    #2589

    TheTrivium4TW
    Participant

    Golden Oxen post=2189 wrote: Everyone is going to need a bailout soon. Let’s not go down the list one at a time with the attendant nitty gritty. Can they print there way out of this debt horror or can’t they? Therein lies the rub.

    “Printing” bails out the debtors (sheep), taking the nation’s into receivership as they all go bankrupt enriches and empowers the debt holders (wolves).

    Go ahead and bet on the wolves bailing out the sheep.

    I bet that the wolves eat the sheep.

    See previous my post for why QE was enacted – the narrative wasn’t reality. It rarely ever is.

    Don’t believe me… blind belief is bad (not that you would – you think my view is abhorrent).

    But keep the idea on the back shelf. The Fed came out today and is laying the groundwork for letting deflation hit so they can asset strip society one more time.

    I think QE3 may occur – but it won’t be to “jump start the economy” or “bail out debtors.”

    It will be to enrich the inner party and to indebt everyone else. Same as it always was.

    These wolves wear suits and they act as some kind of cloaking device for the evil that dwells within those suits.

    The insiders aren’t hoarding trillions in cash and debt and giving away 4% mortgages because the insiders are going to “print” all their own wealth away.

    Not.

    Gonna.

    Happen.

    The inner party has been working on this “end game” scenario since they installed Debt Dollar Tyranny back in 1913. This isn’t anything new or unexpected – they KNEW the end would look like this almost 100 years ago.

    #2590

    TheTrivium4TW
    Participant

    MayAllBWell post=2187 wrote: Ash, I read recently on ZH about the possibly near introduction of Floating Rate Notes by the US Treasury. ZH seems to think this is a huge deal. I reread the article as well as posted questions on their blog, but I still haven’t had it explained to me in a way I can understand. Would you be willing to what ZH and Prof Singh are trying to say about the significance of FRN and why that means to “Get Out of Dodge” (do they mean Equities?) in this post:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/if-1951-accord-any-indication-treasurys-imminent-launch-floaters-will-be-signal-get-out-dodge

    Thank you!

    Hi MAB,

    I’m sure Ash will go into more detail, but my take is that ZH is speculating that the necessity of floating rate notes to get people to still buy treasuries as interest rates rise.

    Without floating rate notes, people would resist buying treasuries because they’d get murdered by ever increasing rates.

    Of course, the treasury holders are mostly inner party members and their corporate fronts, so this would mostly a bailout by another name.

    ZH seems to be calling for Obama or Romney to reign in the Fed, but I think they are wrong. I think the banksters put someone in office with, shall we say, “liabilities,” to ensure that he follows through on his bankster operative agendas…

    The international financiers are running the show now.

    #2591

    TheTrivium4TW
    Participant

    ashvin post=2185 wrote: [quote=jal post=2184]

    What else would one expect when trying to solve a debt problem by piling on more layers of unproductive debt?

    Exchange/replace the “unproductive debt” for a cash producing/generating asset. (printing press heheheh)

    Yes, that’s one of the things that the EZ periphery including Spain need to do. Print away their debts, or, better still, establish a legitimate debt moratorium/forgiveness program. They cannot do either of those things in a meaningful way as long as they remain a part of the Union.

    And their politicians under the thumb of the Debt Dollar Tyrants.

    Sovereign money can exist, but it doesn’t maximize profits for Debt Dollar Tyrants – and they are orchestrating world events right now… the people have to wake up to their “Art of War” or else the future is more bleak than the bleak future we face for willfully falling into their credit bubble trap.

    #2592

    pipefit
    Participant

    The Tri-“Someone claimed I was wrong when I claimed the debt holders would make the debtors pay, not themselves.”

    You are wrong. You’re focusing too narrowly. The main creditors are the Asians, and the main debtors are the developed nations of the West. How is china gonna make us pay?

    We can’t pay, so we won’t. The question is if we can default in a manner that doesn’t bring down the world’s economy by 30% or 40%. Quite frankly, I don’t know.

    Look what happened to Japan, when we inflated away 2/3 of our debt to her. The Japanese were in a bind and needed that money, and then, poof, it wasn’t there. Given the state of the Chinese banking system, it looks bad.

    At some point, China is going to demand geopolitical concessions for being cheated out of their currency reserves.

    #2593

    TheTrivium4TW
    Participant

    pipefit post=2198 wrote: The Tri-“Someone claimed I was wrong when I claimed the debt holders would make the debtors pay, not themselves.”

    You are wrong. You’re focusing too narrowly. The main creditors are the Asians, and the main debtors are the developed nations of the West. How is china gonna make us pay?

    We can’t pay, so we won’t. The question is if we can default in a manner that doesn’t bring down the world’s economy by 30% or 40%. Quite frankly, I don’t know.

    Look what happened to Japan, when we inflated away 2/3 of our debt to her. The Japanese were in a bind and needed that money, and then, poof, it wasn’t there. Given the state of the Chinese banking system, it looks bad.

    At some point, China is going to demand geopolitical concessions for being cheated out of their currency reserves.

    Who owns more debt than the private international banking cartel that controls the Federal Reserve?

    What price the new democracy? Goldman Sachs conquers Europe

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/what-price-the-new-democracy-goldman-sachs-conquers-europe-6264091.html

    You know, the group that has taken over Europe without firing a shot (and NOT by bailing them out) and WHO will control the destiny of America?

    You may well be correct that international debt is higher than international banking cartel debt, but it is the THE CARTEL that will make the decisions – and they may well enjoy another excuse for major war and population reduction… if you know WHO they are… you’ll know what I mean.

    #2594

    pipefit
    Participant

    “but it is the THE CARTEL that will make the decisions – “

    They could have booted Greece out of the Euro Zone, and chose not to. Or did they really have a choice? I think not. I think a disorderly Greek B.K. would have exposed the cartel as themselves bankrupt.

    Look at it this way. The USA has a $15 trillion economy. Take out the government, and it is maybe a $8 trillion annual GDP, private sector. Then take out retail, finance, education, and how much wealth is actually produced. Just a wild guess, I’d say 2 or 3 trillion per year.

    And how many trillions in claims are there on that 2 or 3 trillion? There’s nothing here to take. Yeah, they can seize people’s houses, then do what? Rent them out? To whom?

    And of course Spain is even worse.

    The main thing the cartel has going for it is the military industrial complex, but the ability of the USA to fund that is diminishing quickly. They could start a nuclear war, I suppose, but in that case, you and me won’t have to worry much about earthly matters……………..

    #2596

    ashvin
    Participant

    MayAllBWell,

    I very briefly discussed the issue of FRNs at the end this post – Paying for Protection

    At that time, I figured it was simply another way for the UST to accommodate ever-increasing demand for treasuries in the current environment, where people are fleeing European bonds and other high-yield debt-assets in droves. The FRNs are basically a way to buy treasuries (preserve capital) with an implicit interest rate swap built in, which eliminates IR risk and only leaves credit risk. Basically, it is a bond packaged with a hedging mechanism.

    ZH seems to think that the fact that the TBAC (the big banks) are on board with this idea implies they believe short-term IR will spike in the near future, perhaps later this year or sometime next year, and by that time the UST will have substituted FRNs for a good portion of the outstanding normal treasury notes held by the large financial institutions. This will leave both the UST and the large institutions solvent, while those holding other risk-assets such as private bonds and stocks will get clobbered. Indeed, a significant spike in short-term IR should be expected to trigger a huge RISK OFF period.

    That being said, my initial thoughts are that ZH is being a bit alarmist here, as usual. It’s still possible that the FRNs are just a means of providing more customized supply of treasuries to institutions with increasing demand. Similar to IR swaps or any other hedging device, they will also help sustain demand at extremely low interest rates. I can’t imagine the Fed is planning on raising its funds rate any time soon (they said not until 2014), and don’t see many other reasons for a gut-wrenching spike in treasury rates either.

    Several years down the line, though, it could be an entirely different story, and the fact that the UST’s debt portfolio has been largely transitioned to FRNs may be a useful mechanism for it to forestall a full-blown sovereign debt crisis like those occurring in the Euro periphery. Although, many things may have changed by that time (including the composition of the EU), and it is hard to predict just how devastating a large spike in IR will be. One thing is for sure – investments in equities will be demolished.

    #2597

    jal
    Participant

    Let’s try to look into what could be happening to try to save Spain.
    Read the following to get an introduction.

    https://www.oftwominds.com/blogapril12/2008-reprise4-12.html

    Is 2012 a Reprise of 2008?   (April 12, 2012)

    The collateral was leveraged 33-to-1.
    If $1 of collateral is supporting an inverted pyramid of $33 of leveraged debt, which is then the collateral supporting an even larger pyramid of derivatives, then when that $1 of collateral vanishes, the entire edifice has lost its base.
    In our example, the mortgage is still valued on the books at $450,000, but the actual collateral — the house — is only worth $250,000. The idea being pursued by central banks around the world is that if they pump enough free money and liquidity into the system, and buy up impaired debt (i.e. debt in which the collateral has vanished), then the illusion that there is still some actual collateral holding up the market can be maintained.
    The European Central Bank (ECB) has played the same hand as the Federal Reserve: Do more of what has failed spectacularly.  Expand the money supply, pump in more liquidity and buy up the impaired debt all in the hope that the market will believe that there is still some collateral holding up the leveraged-debt pyramid.

    Let’s concentrate on the following statement.

    “… and buy up the impaired debt …”
    If you really want to understand how the numbers work,then use a spreadsheet.

    The conclusion is …
    If the leveraging is 33:1 then the banks get all of their money back if the ECB takes only 1 of 33 bad assets at a 100%. The banks are saved.
    If the ECB takes all 33 bad assets at 100% then the banks are going to be rolling in cash.
    If you are still confused, Go back and read the example above.

    Thank You.
    ===

    #2600

    Anonymous

    Thank you, Ash for your – level-headed – explanation. It also helps to hear you say that ZH is often alarmist, because I’ve noticed that too. In fact, I got alarmed after reading that article! 🙂 I think i understand better what this is about now.

    I wonder if you are also willing to comment on the following:

    ZH has said that retail mostly sat out this equities rally and that (therefore) primary dealers and other big players are to a large degree “all-in”, unable – so far – to pass the bag off to retail, though they repeatedly try to coax retail to buy, for example through MMM messaging.

    The big players are thus motivated to either try and keep the rally going ever higher, maintain it flat, or be the first to sell and get out. The first ones to sell in a bubble and escape the game win, everybody else looses.

    So it’s this “first ones out” that I have a question about. It seems to me there are many big players, each one looking out for their own self interest and willing to stab the others in the back or cooperate as needed. Each one would love to be the first out, but I think there’s a problem.

    In the old days, perhaps a few could sneak out first (ie: sell big time and all of a sudden). But nowadays the big players are all privy to sensitive and incredibly quick computers and program sentinels which are constantly patrolling every nano-move in the markets. I don’t think anyone can “sneak out” in a big way anymore, because as soon as the move starts, everyone is alerted and instantly responsive.

    The only exceptions to this I can think of is if there’s an entity that has technology that is much faster than all the others. Or if several of the big players cooperate and act in accord, leave together, and split the spoils.

    I have this image of a smoky room all filled with mafiosi bosses, untold riches in bags all around the room, with guards at every exit carrying loaded guns. Each boss would like to escape with lots of loot… But no one can leave…. Unless?

    #2601

    ashvin
    Participant

    MayAllBWell,

    The issue you just raised is what I refer to as the “financial fingerprint of instability” (see Revisiting the Financial Fingerprint of Instability). It is a situation in which the financial markets, and most clearly the equity markets, have lost most of their resilience and are now extremely prone to high volatility over short periods of time. The consequences of that for the big players should not be under-estimated, as they are now forced to cannibalize themselves for marginal profits in the “new normal” of synchronized HFT.

    As the graphs above indicate, it is not just investors’ time horizons that have lost most of their variability with the inexorable rise of HFT, but also the differences in the number of stocks traded and the volume of those trades. And the situation has only become worse since that time. From mid-2011 to the first month of 2012 was a period marked by an unprecedented drop in volume for the S&P 500, while European markets have followed similar trends [As the No-Volume Market Churns]. This was also a period of great volatility in markets, with frequent episodes of systemic fear gripping these markets by their throats in the Fall of 2011.

    Indeed, U.S. markets finally ended a gut-wrenching 2011 barely changed from where they started the year. The only thing investors gained from the tumultuous market that year was painful whiplash and heartache, as well as the prospect of even more instability in the future. One of the key drivers of this greatly decreased variability in the market over the last few years had been the unabated exodus of the retail investor, who could no longer endure the torture and had completely yielded to robotic traders.

    People investing their capital through mutual funds and pension funds have traditionally been the source of variable time horizons, investment sizes and allocations for the equity markets, but they are all but out of the equation now. What’s perhaps more interesting is how even the limited variability provided by HFT market participants is now in the process of disappearing, as the robotic traders who can longer compete are weeded out.

    So, as noted in my original piece, the natural and variable heartbeat of most equity markets worldwide, and especially in the U.S., has been completely eradicated, leaving the “brain” starved of oxygen for much too long. There is no cognition, creativity or conscience left – only the mundane and de-humanized life of patients who are being kept alive by an assortment of machines. However, even the machines are running out of the energy required to keep them powered on, because liquidity is no longer enough for the big money players. The hope of witnessing the market bounce back to a healthy and stable life has been overtaken by the pain and agony of watching it die.

    Some of the BIGGEST players, i.e. the people even higher than the Mafia bosses in your analogy, can probably afford to take a hit in the equity markets, as they can dump their holdings early on and can continue to feed on the lifeblood of smaller institutions and taxpayers. These are the people who will probably have bets placed against the market that more than offset any non-backstopped losses they will incur. The bond and derivative markets, though, are a different story, even for them.

    #2602

    Anonymous

    Thank you, Ash.

    #2617

    jal
    Participant

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-ecb-turning-spain-greece

    How The ECB Is Turning Spain Into Greece

    (ECB liquidity now accounts for 8.6% of all Spanish banking assets), is a very high number – on par with Greek, Irish, and Portuguese levels around 10% where their systems are now fully dependent on the ECB for the viability of their banks. His bottom line, Spain is not looking good here and while plenty of chatter focuses on the ECB’s ability to use its SMP (whose longer-term effectiveness is reduced due to scale at EUR214bn representing just 3% of Eurozone GDP), consider what happened in Greece! The ECB did not take a Greek haircut and so the greater the amount of Greek debt the ECB bought, the greater the eventual haircut the private sector was forced to take.

    The conclusion is …
    If the leveraging is 33:1 then the banks get all of their money back if the ECB takes only 1 of 33 bad assets at a 100%. The banks are saved.
    If the ECB takes all 33 bad assets at 100% then the banks are going to be rolling in cash.
    If you are still confused, Go back and read the example from CHS above.

    #2642

    TheTrivium4TW
    Participant

    pipefit post=2200 wrote: “but it is the THE CARTEL that will make the decisions – “

    They could have booted Greece out of the Euro Zone, and chose not to. Or did they really have a choice? I think not. I think a disorderly Greek B.K. would have exposed the cartel as themselves bankrupt.

    Look at it this way. The USA has a $15 trillion economy. Take out the government, and it is maybe a $8 trillion annual GDP, private sector. Then take out retail, finance, education, and how much wealth is actually produced. Just a wild guess, I’d say 2 or 3 trillion per year.

    And how many trillions in claims are there on that 2 or 3 trillion? There’s nothing here to take. Yeah, they can seize people’s houses, then do what? Rent them out? To whom?

    And of course Spain is even worse.

    The main thing the cartel has going for it is the military industrial complex, but the ability of the USA to fund that is diminishing quickly. They could start a nuclear war, I suppose, but in that case, you and me won’t have to worry much about earthly matters……………..

    Why did the oligarchs of old want to own all the land and resources and treat people like serfs?

    It appears to be in their nature.

    Have you heard the about the scorpion and the frog?

    https://allaboutfrogs.org/stories/scorpion.html

    It appears this is simply what they do.

    BTW, I’m hoping for hyperinflation so that my neighbors don’t become JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. I want my neighbors to have a chance to actually own their homes.

    I “get” that a deflationary depression is simply sicked in a society based on debt. Denninger keeps rooting for it, but I don’t think he actually “gets it.”

    It is gonna be wicked when 50% of the money supply disappears.

    The crowd that thinks people will reject dollars simply don’t understand the system. To “reject dollars” is to reject debt – and you can’t just do that without losing the asset… which is money destruction and deflation by definition.

    Yes, it’s horrible. These people are wicked – it is simply what they do.

    So we have to get prepared, build local sustainability and warn others so they can prepare.

    #2643

    TheTrivium4TW
    Participant

    ashvin post=2207 wrote: The bond and derivative markets, though, are a different story, even for them.

    Which is exactly why they’ve tied society to those debts.

    Oh, they will rescind them in time, but only just before they would actually damage the “inner party” cartel.

    The derivatives are very useful as a cement anchor to tie to society as it is thrown overboard. The line will be cut when an oligarch risks getting pulled in, though.

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