The Cost of Denying Reality
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Round 2 of elections in Greece are coming up this weekend, and all of the media spin machines are working in hyperdrive to make sure that A) the elect
[See the full post at: The Cost of Denying Reality]Nice one Ash,
and I would add that Argentina (and Russia in 1998) had its *OWN* sources of oil, which probably helped them to regain economic growth… so I think Greece is fu*ked up even more, if not forever…
Alex
ash, you failed to mention-what the american people will do? after all, its fair to say that they too have been coerced into denying reality for far too long…………….
If there is one thing you could pin down that keeps the Elite in Power here, it’s the fact that everyone is scared to death of the alternative. For good reason, generally the alternative results in a lot of dieing.
So Greece, Spain, et al go into the IMF ICU as Gomers on Respirators to hang on for just one more week, one more day, one more hour to the Industrial way of life. Reversion to an Agrarian way of life without Oil can’t happen overnight, the conversion the other way took many decades, close to a Century really. The systems which were in place which made that agrarian lifestyle are mostly gone now. How many Horses do you think there are now in Greece to pull wagons and plows anyhow?
In the meantime in Greece and Spain along with everywhere else, the population EXPLODED courtesy of all the cheap food available from Industrial Ag. Now that the Oil is not so cheap anymore, the food it produces isn’t either, and if nobody will float you a Loan to buy this Food, you get to STARVE.
So this is the situation the Greeks find themselves in. Sell themselves as Slaves to the Illuminati and hopefully get enough meager rations from the IMF, ESM or STUPID Funds to stay alive a while longer, or Break FREE and take the hit of a significant portion of the population starving to death.
If you read anything of Ferfal’s Blog on the Argentinian Crisis and have seen any of the photos of encampments of the poor and disenfranchised of Argentina, you should know that all the talk of how Argentina “recovered” ecoomically and experienced “growth” after defaulting is really a crock of shit.
THIS is the future for Greece, Spain, Italy…and really everywhere else once they get CUT OFF from the lifeblood of Credit necessary to buy what remains of the Oil under the desert sands of Ghanwar.
So, everyone NOT yet off the Cliff is TERRIFIED, and rightly so. Transisitioning back off the Oil Jones is a very tough thing to do, and mostly not successful without a whole lot of dieing. About the most successful to date seem to be the Cubans, who have managed to survive Embargos and the collapse of their Patron State of the Soviet Union better than most others Cut Off from the credit markets. Still, the Cubans never industrialized that much in the first place, and they are on an Island somewhat removed from the vast geopolitical forces pushing around a land mass like Europe or MENA.
What to DO for the Greeks? What to do for ANY of us really, because this show is Coming to a Theatre Near You also in due time. it is unfortunately not a soluble problem by conventional means. Time to start thinking Outside the Box.
Pretty clearly, the media have convinced an awful lot of people that the elections in Greece will mark some grand signal for Europe’s future. But they won’t.
As I predicted in a comment a month or so ago, this weekend’s election could well see a return of one of the more “mainstream” parties controlling a Greek coalition government. In fact, I’m not convinced that the difference between New Democracy and Syriza is actually all that radical. Certainly, one or the other does not really ensure much radical change for Greece’s future, despite what we’ve been led to believe.
If Syriza were insisting that their win would mark Greece’s exit from the Euro, then it might be radical, but that has never been what they want. Syriza is not pro-“exit”. It’s pro-Euro and pro-“re-negotiate the bail-out”. Frankly, if Pasok or New Democracy wins, they’ll be trying to tweak the bailout too, if without so much grandstanding.
So, not unlike the elections in the US between Obama and Romney, I don’t really see the Greek election results really changing the course of Greek history all that much. Golden Dawn notwithstanding, the leading parties are currently not as different from each other as they or the media would have us believe. The Eurozone will not unceremoniously boot Greece out the morning after a Syriza victory. That would be Euro-suicide. Any exit would still have to be managed. Just as Greece’s exist will still be “managed” when and if New Democracy or Pasok wins. Exit will happen in either event, eventually.
My bet is still on another country leaving the Euro before Greece does, no matter what the election outcome turns out to be. Greece’s election results may only change the timing of the exit by a month this way or that. Meanwhile, markets and the populace will be somehow re-assured that the election results are a good thing for Europe. New Democracy’s win will be seen as a return of order. And even a Syriza win will be positioned as a reluctant push to start re-negotiating the terms of a bailout that everyone now admits was too “heavy-handed”. Talk about extend and pretend!
skipbreakfast post=3627 wrote: As I predicted in a comment a month or so ago, this weekend’s election could well see a return of one of the more “mainstream” parties controlling a Greek coalition government. In fact, I’m not convinced that the difference between New Democracy and Syriza is actually all that radical. Certainly, one or the other does not really ensure much radical change for Greece’s future, despite what we’ve been led to believe.
If Syriza were insisting that their win would mark Greece’s exit from the Euro, then it might be radical, but that has never been what they want. Syriza is not pro-“exit”. It’s pro-Euro and pro-“re-negotiate the bail-out”. Frankly, if Pasok or New Democracy wins, they’ll be trying to tweak the bailout too, if without so much grandstanding.
I agree with you that Syriza victory will not mean an immediate exit from the EZ. But what it does mean is that the ECB, IMF, EU and Germany have been made to look like huge fools, getting shoved around by tiny little Greece, and the ball will be back in their possession. It will be their turn on offense, with very unhappy fans (taxpaying populations) in the stands. Those fans will rightly believe that they are not getting what they paid for at all in this game of Greek bailout/austerity ponzi.
So what will the ECB, EU and Germany do? They really only have two choices in my mind – 1) somehow coerce Syriza into backtracking and going along with most of the austerity commitments previously outlined, or 2) effectively force Greece out of the EZ, cut their losses, and try to make an example out of it, while also setting up contagion “firewalls”. I don’t think the last two things will work out too well for them, but I also don’t think that realization will stop them from trying to do it anyway.
My bet is still on another country leaving the Euro before Greece does, no matter what the election outcome turns out to be. Greece’s election results may only change the timing of the exit by a month this way or that. Meanwhile, markets and the populace will be somehow re-assured that the election results are a good thing for Europe. New Democracy’s win will be seen as a return of order. And even a Syriza win will be positioned as a reluctant push to start re-negotiating the terms of a bailout that everyone now admits was too “heavy-handed”. Talk about extend and pretend!
That is certainly a possibility, but unlikely IMO. The Greek economy is so far in the pits right now, I don’t think any symbolic “re-negotiations” will make a difference. If anything, it will just be used as an opportunity for more people to pull their money out of the country and cut off trade/business connections. They are right in the midst of full-fledged debt deflation that is progressing rapidly, with all of the economic and sociopolitical consequences that entails. The only other country that even comes close is Spain, and the Eurocrats will be much more obsessed with keeping it in the EZ rather than Greece. They can either extend or pretend right now, but not really both. Extend Greek’s lifeline, and give the various stakeholders a little more time to GTFO and mitigate their losses from the inevitable exit, or let Greek default/exit, and pretend it isn’t such a bad thing for the rest of the EZ (as long as they stick together).
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