The Year in 5 Narratives
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John Vachon Auto of migrant fruit worker at gas station, Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin Jul 1940 Let’s see, how do we close this year in a proper manner? I a
[See the full post at: The Year in 5 Narratives]Thanks for another year of good information, analysis and stylish presentation Ilargi and Stoneleigh.
I do miss the old days (reading since 2008) when the likes of El Gallinazo and Greenpa populated the comments section.
Sigh…
Manners and scholarship have declined in the comments sections everywhere.
I was too shy to enter a comment for years, for fear of seeming uninformed.
I guess that’s all over.
Happy New Year, Y’all!Mr Market says 66% chance of Greek default. (“100% if you wait long enough”, says logic.)
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-31/greek-default-risk-soars-66-morgan-stanley-warns-ecb-may-be-unable-launch-qe#comment-5610220illargi, if you have time please see my comment on todays debt rattle.
Oh and a massive thank you for your sacrifice in running this site, its much appreciated.
Happy new year!
Koso, don’t have time to watch a 25 min video right now, but the decline in money velocity points to one thing only: deflation. Which is velocity times money/credit supply. Ergo: People don’t spend. Prices go down. Jobs are lost. Prices go down further. More jobs are lost. Rinse and repeat. Deflation is a bitch. And the declining velocity of money is her sign that she”s arrived. Nothing a central bank can do. If people either don’t feel like spending, or simply don’t have anything to spend (a case overlooked by economists, strange as it may seem), central banks push on a string. Everything’s developing just the way we said it would all along. Nothing to be proud of, just lots to worry about. People are going to get hurt.
Ilargi – my sincere and humble thanks to you and Stoneleigh for your remarkable insight
over the years, regarding the role of energy initially, and now inclusive to all things
earthly. Best wishes for 2015 and beyond.Ilargi, thanks for the reply, but i would strongly suggest you watch the video when you have time.
He makes the point that money velocity is not actually down as much as its made out to be because a big percentage of the base money is sitting idly as reserves that isnt actually participating in the economy.
At first i thought he he was trying to show that the economy is doing well, but if you continue listening, he actually says this doesnt mean the economy is doing well because whats happened since 08 is that borrowers are tapped out and arent borrowing enough. Government borrowing hasnt come close to filling the gap either.
He makes some very interesting points and i was just wondering what your take would be.
Hi Koso_man,
It seems that all that money sitting idly in the accounts of big banks is cushion for the next collapse.
The bankers must be defended against consequences, and they do hold everybody’s money, so there’s a gun to every head.
Maybe I’m wrong… Happy New YearIlargi,
Good to see your work regularly appears @ Zerohedge now, also @ Peak Prosperity.
Thanks for your insight! Also, thanks for including an old picture from my hometown. I never thought I’d see that!Koso,
It seems to me that any money sitting idle, sequestered in banks, as cash reserves or untapped credit not being has zero velocity. People cannot/will not spend what is not in circulation either through wages or loans , nor are they willing to start tapping into cash stashed under the mattress.
As Ilargi said, central banks cannot make the little people spend and have no intention of forcing the banks to let loose some of their ill gotten tarp and zirp booty.Here is a good article looking at what the new Greek left, Syriza, may actually do if elected. There are lots of moving parts and historical precedents to consider.
https://truth-out.org/news/item/28263-syriza-from-radicalism-to-pragmatism-the-state-of-the-left-in-greece
I have to wonder if Greece will be jettisoned and publicly punished for what is inevitable, to teach the rest of the debt slaves a lesson.Ilargi,
Just read a comment on another site a few minutes ago reminding readers to always remember that Putin was/is KGB. Conveniently forgotten is our own CIA President George HW Bush. Of course our spooks are honorable, trustworthy people. LOL
@ Hotrod
…always remember that Putin was/is KGB.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Actually that is not true, but a widely held mis-information.
Putin worked for the Soviet/Russian intellegence agency, not KGB.
My source for that is the Saker @
https://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/Top of the new year to everybody…
John, i wholeheartedly agree.
Hotrod, i think that is the main point made by the presentation i put up in the debt rattle. That was his main point, its not that velocity of money has gone down, but the fact that the people are unwilling (in the opinion of the video, because people are tapped out) to borrow. This is a big problem for the central banks i think,,,which makes me think what are the likelihood of the government enacting massive tax credits to make consumers spend since federal spending has not been able to fill the gap left by consumer borrowing since 08.
thanks so much for your efforts. i’ve made a small monthly contribution to help you continue the good work.
Happy New Year, Raúl! Let me know if either of you ever pass through Montreal in the near future and we’ll get together for a coffee.
Abrazos!
JohnI’d like to add my thanks for your unstinting efforts running the TAE, and wish you all the best for 2015. I look forward to continuing to read your insightful articles during 2015, and strongly recommend you read this recent post on Zero Hedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-31/guest-post-2014-russian-viewpoint
Reality – I was also impressed by that post on Zero Hedge today.
It was routed thru Zero Hedge via https://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/12/2014-end-of-year-report-and-look-into.htmlThat’s the same as the blog referenced by V Arnold above.
For the first time I feel like I’ve got a handle on what is happening over there. The other writer that gives me a real picture of what is happening in EurAsia is Pepe Escobar. He wrote this before xmas https://www.atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-02-231214.html
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