Debt Rattle April 8 2025
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Dr. D.
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April 8, 2025 at 10:14 am #185749
Raúl Ilargi Meijer
KeymasterSalvador Dali Dream Caused by the Flight of a Bee 1944 • Don’t Be Weak, Don’t Be A PANICAN (ZH) • Trump Shows No Sign Of Backing Away From Swee
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle April 8 2025]April 8, 2025 at 10:38 am #185751Dr D Rich
Participant-
Chinese industry without American consumers is not a pretty picture.
Sure….. 4x the population of the U.S., they keep their Billionaire-class in check, and produce less than 1/100th of the fentanyl addicts.
Btw what’s up with Bill “Ack” Ackman playing Bad Cop for the Trump Admin good-bad cop routine?
Controlled opposition?
Illusion of debate?
Delusion of disagreement?
Manufactured dissent?Plus, that performative art between Netanyahu and Trump in The Oval Office was a sight to behold. Notice Veep Vance Hamel Bowman Blanton JD wasn’t invited to bring his special brand of provocative lunacy to The President’s Couch. I for one would have paid a premium for that scene, Benjamin and JD, mano y mano. I wouldn’t give the edge in hand to hand to Combat War Correspondent Vance….even as the younger man.
Pay the price!
Not me and my bros, but you. You be patient. Me and Howie and The Oracle of Omaha will be just fine.April 8, 2025 at 1:46 pm #185752those darned kids
Participantstephen miller speaks in farts.
April 8, 2025 at 1:48 pm #185753Dr D Rich
ParticipantSundance lost it too pretending Trump isn’t beholden to Israel and firmly attached to Netanyahu’s leash or ass. The latter is too obnoxious to contemplate.
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Timing his visit with a stock market “pump and dump”, executed by his friend Bill Ackman and intended to create domestic political turmoil, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits President Trump in the White House.
Smartly, the strategic team in the White House saw the Ackman ‘pump and dump’ as it was triggered and cancelled the formal bilateral press conference in favor of a sit-down open presser in the Oval Office. Recovering from the failure of the strategic headline narrative effort (irrelevant questions about the fake news 90-day tariff pause), Netanyahu was then forced to retreat and outline his remarks unscripted.
President Trump then sat back (semi-detached) and watched Netanyahu discuss tariffs, “the subject of great interest today.” Netanyahu proclaimed that Israel agrees with President Trump about the exploitative use of tariffs against American interests, and President Trump wondered if the viewing audience noticed that if one-way Israeli tariffs were so bad for the “good friend of Israel” then why were they in place?
President Trump Holds a Presser with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
April 8, 2025 at 1:53 pm #185754zerosum
ParticipantTrump’s trade strategy.
Properly identify what is the problem?
Not the illusion or diversion.
Too many bonds, ($37T), or too much Interest?
Who has got the problem?
Me or you?
Who should solve the problem?
The 8% or every one?
Which problem will tariffs address?https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/
As of April 2024, the five countries owning the most US debt are:
Japan ($1.1 trillion),
China ($749.0 billion),
the United Kingdom ($690.2 billion),
Luxembourg ($373.5 billion),
and Canada ($328.7 billion).
———–
Who is prepared to negotiate?
———–
ADM Investor Services chief economist Marc Ostwald said, commenting on the roller coaster in the markets in the wake of the tariff announcement.
The situation is characterized by hopes that one of three power players: big banks, the Fed or the administration will intervene to return stability,
Ostwald says, with an infusion of mobilized bank capital, an emergency rate cut by the Fed, or a decision to relent by Trump needed to arrest the volatility.Paul Goncharoff says, commenting on the Trump tariff salvo.
“We will still have inflation, recession will visit us all, hard assets will replace soft money, dedollarization may in fact quicken, and the heightened military tension we see around us will not fully disappear until some understanding between the China and America contingents are reached,” the Goncharoff LCC director says. “There are two players at the high table – China and the United States.
The surrounding noisy gaggle of countries are important yet in fact secondary players. We are watching the geopolitical and economic world as we knew it being re-routed in very short order – in days and not decades,” Goncharoff explained.
———–April 8, 2025 at 1:57 pm #185755those darned kids
Participantall this praise for a murderer.
what’s the tariff on yemeni children?
April 8, 2025 at 2:18 pm #185756zerosum
Participant… Do the Hokey Pokey and you turn yourself around, that’s what it’s all about!
Put your left arm in, take your left arm out. Put your left arm in, and you shake …
———–April 8, 2025 at 2:24 pm #185757those darned kids
Participantwell put, zero.
the wheels on the bus do go round and round and round and round and
April 8, 2025 at 2:36 pm #185758Dr. D
Participant“Donald Trump’s national security adviser Mike Waltz included a journalist in the Signal group chat about plans for US strikes in Yemen after he mistakenly saved his number months before under the contact of someone else he intended to add,”
Exactly what others (I forget who, doing too much) said. HOW does this happen? Same as you put your mistress in your phone to hide from your wife: under another name. Did Trump know Waltz is a Neocon plant? Probably. They have to put up with a number of these, or the Derp State will just force him to install more. (Bolton). The key is to work around them.
““China will fight till the end if the US side is bent on going down the wrong path,” a ministry spokesperson said”
Not sure what position this is. Like, it ends somehow. So doing this says you won’t end it unless the U.S. unconditionally surrenders? Bc I assume it’s also read internally, to their people. From our side, when we do it, no matter – just throw us a bone, any eye-candy, we’ll throw it to our people and they’ll accept it.
Makes me think of how China is weaker than they look (but also stronger, they have a lot of interlocking organic systems, unlike 1999) and we’re hearing rumored that they have fewer people than they claim – perhaps a LOT fewer. That isn’t Covid, although that might add, they may have overcounted to seem important by 1-200 million. I cannot find any reasonable way to quantify that. Sure, why not? What makes it actionable?
“• EU Offers US a ‘Zero-for-Zero’ Tariff Plan To Avoid A Trade War (JTN)
There’s a lot going on with this. One reason Trump’s numbers made no sense is that it was tariff, deficit + Magic, with the magic being what we think their protectionism is without spending a year getting an actual economist to quantify and list it. What is that? EU regulations add burdens on everyone, which is their power and their Plan all along. To say “Oh, we’re so Awesome, you can’t have YOUR filthy chicken here with the Garden People” is HOW they do tariffs and protection. So they may go % Tariff equal and count on the 60% protection they have via regulation. Maybe that’s enough, who knows?
“he will not be lifting them “unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis, number one for present but also for past.”
Germany says they want their gold. Trump then says we’re keeping the gold per 2% NATO GDP x 20 years you’ve been shorting us. See?
“• The European Union Just Caved on Trump’s Tariffs (Margolis)
I see why Starmer did first then. Of course Starmer = EU anyway.
““We already have 50 — five-zero — countries that have come to the table over the last few days, over the last weeks, that are willing and desperate to talk to us,”
So doesn’t that mean short market panic? Will definitely recover? Hard to see why not.
Also: Market is wildly higher than any normal amphetamines addict would take it. It’s too high at 20,000. Sooo…let’s just claim Trump was running the Biden Admin. We know Wall St is his ally. Sort of. Just MAKE the Dow 40,000 so we can cut it in half. Okay, compare: Dow 20k, goes nowhere bc stupid overvalued. Then we rock the world and it’s cut to 10k.ORRRRR, we “just make it” 40k, because there are no markets and no price discovery anyway, then drop it to 20k.
Second part: the Dow is still 50% overvalued at 20k. Buuuuuuut…what if we remove idiotic regulation and drag so that they become twice as functional? As in, Profitable? Twice as valuable? Okay, now we’re nearing par again, and can happen in 4 years.
• Trump’s Tariff Gamble Could Plunge Planet Into New Great Depression (Sp.)Could. It’s dangerous, it’s going to suck. What do you want to do? Try nothing?
“• Conservative Legal Scholars Debate Response to Liberal Judges’ Overreach (DS)
All these arguments are valid. Maybe the point is we’re HAVING arguments, which means we’re not a dictatorship? People are talking and attempting consensus?
“• World Economic Forum Founder Klaus Schwab To Also Step Down As Chairman (JTN)
He doesn’t run this, he’s a front man. And does anyone believe Fond of Lyin’ runs anything, wears a crown, is in control of anything? Yet we don’t ask who’s behind her. Or Biden for that matter.
“• EU Looking To Replace Musk’s Starlink In Ukraine – Politico (RT)
Uhhhh…do they know what a satellite is? It’s not a taco. Not everyone can make and deliver them.
This of course is why the Left hates Musk and will burn him on sight. Because he’s given free targeting satellites to all Ukraine for three years. See how it doesn’t matter? Nothing matters? But ACB and Tulsi are women! Justice Thomas is Black! ...Do not care. You get zero minority points if you’re not on the Left. And not just “Left” but FAR Left, ie. Communist. The only dividing line is are you for the Glorious Revolution of death for all, or aren’t you? Elon was a good Party member, but not a PURE party member, and must be killed. He’s now a closet Leninist, not a Stalinist or whatever, I forget what the historical sub-purges were, there were so many. He dropped a comma, and so he’s no longer true, pure, doctrine.
“Death rates among working-aged people between the ages of 18 and 64 were “up 40 percent over what they were pre-pandemic.” Davidson compared a 10 percent rise in deaths to a once-in-200-year flood. But a 40 percent rise, as Ed Dowd notes, is “off the charts.”
Dire Wolf: maybe not. It may LOOK like a dire wolf but it’s not from that DNA, not like from a bone or something. It may be or it may just look like them. Are they? And what do you think? If a thing LOOKS like it is it? Do they ACT like them? What makes a thing a thing?
April 8, 2025 at 2:40 pm #185759those darned kids
Participant“oops” donald j trump, murdering psychopath
April 8, 2025 at 2:50 pm #185760those darned kids
Participanteureka! i’ve finally found a place for monster island.
this is why mr musk needs to go to mars.
that is where the new australia will be,
where we send the trumps, bidens, putins and xis,
let them duke it out,
while we get on with our humanities.please.
April 8, 2025 at 3:00 pm #185761jb-hb
ParticipantCertain people are sitting on mountains of money they got WITHOUT EXCHANGE OF VALUE FOR VALUE. Now in a position with liquid wealth to do anything, buy anything, essentially like ancient kings — having bought their 8th or 20th home and casting about for what to do, deciding it lies in “delights” others “dare not” indulge in, “making one’s mark” on civilization with luxury beliefs, stuff like that.
The biggest problem today in the West is that we are not allowed to solve our problems. Because of this.
The MONEY has to die
April 8, 2025 at 6:21 pm #185766Formerly T-Bear
ParticipantRIM,
I don’t know if you encountered this link at MoA the other day. An alternative analysis of the calculation of Trump’s tariff schedule, described as economically illiterate. My reading is exactly that. The link:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/04/white-house-lacks-financial-literacy-tariffs-show.html
A number of related links are on offer as wellMoA has another post that may also be of interest here:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/04/an-economic-advisors-weird-theory.html#comments
and:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/04/trump-to-eliminate-capital-gains.html#comments
Sort of reminds of Samson at the temple, the place is coming down.
YMMV but invest in popcorn.April 8, 2025 at 7:23 pm #185767jb-hb
ParticipantUkraine Captures Chinese Nationals Fighting For Russia In First Of War
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-captures-chinese-nationals-fighting-russia-first-warPresident Zelensky posted the above video while also explaining, “This definitely requires a response. A response from the United States, Europe, and all those around the world
Yeah, that WOULD be bad if foreign nationals were joining in on the war. That would be WRONG, sir.
Elensky said we must respond!
How about including various NATO special forces into the Ukrainian line of battle? We could give Ukraine detailed intelligence and targeting data in realtime. Add ex-nato mercenaries to Ukrainian forces. Provide training in NATO countries for Ukrainian soldiers.
And we’ll one-up China and Russia by building a time machine and do our entire retaliation from the start of the war! No, not good enough, from BEFORE the war! Take THAT, China!
April 8, 2025 at 7:50 pm #185768Red
ParticipantChinese nationals!? Were did the North Koreans go? Please.
Something about the ASEAN that may help with the tariffs:
April 8, 2025 at 7:52 pm #185769Red
ParticipantPepe has a few ideas worth mixing in with ones analysis:
April 8, 2025 at 8:18 pm #185770Dr. D
ParticipantGreat mother of God:
April 8, 2025 at 8:22 pm #185771Red
ParticipantDire wolf is notawolf it’s crispr like notavax.
April 8, 2025 at 8:47 pm #185772jb-hb
ParticipantApril 8, 2025 at 9:48 pm #185777Dr. D
ParticipantApril 8, 2025 at 10:06 pm #185778those darned kids
Participantis this dogeball or pickleball!?
hmmm,
$1,000,000,000,000/41,385,529 yemenis = 24,163.71 $ per corpse, or DPC
why, that’s cheaper than health insurance!
April 8, 2025 at 10:12 pm #185779those darned kids
Participantgonna be a lot of english converts to islam, i suspect.
April 8, 2025 at 10:14 pm #185780those darned kids
Participant“Second part: the Dow is still 50% overvalued at 20k. Buuuuuuut…what if we remove idiotic regulation and drag so that they become twice as functional? As in, Profitable? Twice as valuable? Okay, now we’re nearing par again, and can happen in 4 years.”
you realize you are talking about humans, right?
April 8, 2025 at 10:16 pm #185781aspnaz
Participantzerosum said
As of April 2024, the five countries owning the most US debt are:
You forgot the USA, the vast majority of US debt is owned internally by the USA, they should be at the top of your list.
April 8, 2025 at 10:53 pm #185782Maxwell Quest
ParticipantInteresting take from Alex Krainer that Trump’s war on Yemen may actually be another indirect war front against the globalists, because it has the effect of closing down Red Sea shipping on which Europe depends.
Is Trump attacking Europe in Yemen?
So sorry about your ships having to go around Africa, Ol’ Chap.
April 8, 2025 at 11:33 pm #185783aspnaz
Participant@Maxwell Quest China shipping is increasingly (still a small percentage) using the arctic route (https://gcaptain.com/arctic-shipping-boom-continues-as-china-and-russia-push-cargo-volume-to-new-heights/) because it is so much quicker than using the red sea or panama, and those ships do not go home empty.
April 8, 2025 at 11:34 pm #185784jb-hb
ParticipantApril 8, 2025 at 11:40 pm #185785jb-hb
Participant“Second part: the Dow is still 50% overvalued at 20k. Buuuuuuut…what if we remove idiotic regulation and drag so that they become twice as functional? As in, Profitable? Twice as valuable? Okay, now we’re nearing par again, and can happen in 4 years.”
you realize you are talking about humans, right?
Translation to help understand – the King of Assyria thinks he can order people to death on a whim, order cities destroyed, do essentially any thing small or big monumentally with zero consequences solely on the basis of his birth. This results in oppression.
But an alliance is coming to overthrow him. Because he is not WORTH that amount. He is severely, severely overvalued even compared to other regional Kings (even if you take exception to Monarchy) with a better grip on reality and their job description.
It means mene mene tekel upharsin.
April 8, 2025 at 11:46 pm #185786zerosum
ParticipantIt’s only going to hurt for a little while!
April 9, 2025 at 12:04 am #185787zerosum
ParticipantVietnam to buy US defence, security products to tackle trade gap
By Khanh Vu
April 8, 2025
HANOI, April 8 (Reuters) – Vietnam will buy more American goods, including defence and security products, and has asked for a 45-day delay in the imposition of U.S. tariffs, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said in a statement issued late on Monday.
Hanoi will also seek faster deliveries of commercial planes that Vietnamese airlines have ordered from the U.S., Chinh said at a cabinet meeting late on Monday.
The Southeast Asian country, a major regional manufacturing base for many Western companies, last year had a trade surplus of more than $123 billion with the U.S., its largest export market.Chinh said Vietnam had asked the U.S. to delay the 46% tariff rate that U.S. President Donald Trump announced last week to allow time for negotiations.
Vietnam was seeking to “negotiate with the U.S. side for balanced and sustainable trade, in line with the interests of the two sides,” the statement said.
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro highlighted major concerns on Monday, including transhipping from China, the dumping of seafood and other goods, and intellectual property issues.April 9, 2025 at 12:08 am #185788zerosum
ParticipantApril 9, 2025 at 1:10 am #185789Topcat
ParticipantApril 9, 2025 at 1:12 am #185790zerosum
ParticipantAMENDMENT TO RECIPROCAL TARIFFS AND UPDATED DUTIES AS APPLIED TO LOW-VALUE IMPORTS FROM THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
Executive Orders
April 8, 2025
AMENDMENT TO RECIPROCAL TARIFFS AND UPDATED DUTIES AS APPLIED TO LOW-VALUE IMPORTS FROM THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINABy the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.), section 604 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended (19 U.S.C. 2483), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, I hereby determine and order:
Section 1. Background. In Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025 (Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits), I declared a national emergency arising from conditions reflected in large and persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits, and imposed additional ad valorem duties that I deemed necessary and appropriate to deal with that unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security and economy of the United States. Section 4(b) of Executive Order 14257 provided that “[s]hould any trading partner retaliate against the United States in response to this action through import duties on U.S. exports or other measures, I may further modify the [Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States] to increase or expand in scope the duties imposed under this order to ensure the efficacy of this action.” I further declared pursuant to Executive Order 14256 of April 2, 2025 (Further Amendment to Duties Addressing the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People’s Republic of China as Applied to Low-Value Imports) that duty-free de minimis treatment on articles described in section 2(a) of Executive Order 14195 is no longer available effective at 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 2, 2025.
On April 4, 2025, the State Council Tariff Commission of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced that in response to Executive Order 14257, effective at 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on April 10, 2025, a 34 percent tariff would be imposed on all goods imported into the PRC originating from the United States. Pursuant to section 4(b) of Executive Order 14257, I am ordering modification of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) and taking other actions to increase the duties imposed on the PRC in response to this retaliation. In my judgment, this modification is necessary and appropriate to effectively address the threat to the national security and economy of the United States.
Sec. 2. Tariff Increase. In recognition of the fact that the PRC has announced that it will retaliate against the United States in response to Executive Order 14257, the HTSUS shall be modified as follows. Effective with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on April 9, 2025:
(a) heading 9903.01.63 of the HTSUS shall be amended by deleting “34%” each place that it appears and by inserting “84%” in lieu thereof; and
(b) subdivision (v)(xiii)(10) of U.S. note 2 to subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS shall be amended by deleting “34%”, and inserting “84%” in lieu thereof.Sec. 3. De Minimis Tariff Increase. To ensure that the imposition of tariffs pursuant to section 2 of this order is not circumvented and that the purpose of Executive Order 14257 and this action is not undermined, I also deem it necessary and appropriate to:
(a) increase the ad valorem rate of duty set forth in section 2(c)(i) of Executive Order 14256 from 30 percent to 90 percent;
(b) increase the per postal item containing goods duty in section 2(c)(ii) of Executive Order 14256 that is in effect on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 2, 2025, and before 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 1, 2025, from 25 dollars to 75 dollars; and
(c) increase the per postal item containing goods duty in section 2(c)(ii) of Executive Order 14256 that is in effect on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 1, 2025, from 50 dollars to 150 dollars.Sec. 4. Implementation. The Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary of Homeland Security, and the United States Trade Representative, as applicable, in consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, the Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing, the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, and the Chair of the International Trade Commission, are directed to take all necessary actions to implement and effectuate this order, consistent with applicable law, including through temporary suspension or amendment of regulations or notices in the Federal Register and adopting rules and regulations, and are authorized to take such actions, and to employ all powers granted to the President by IEEPA, as may be necessary to implement this order. Each executive department and agency shall take all appropriate measures within its authority to implement this order.
Sec. 5. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:
(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department, agency, or the head thereof; or
(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.
(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.
(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.DONALD J. TRUMP
THE WHITE HOUSE,
April 8, 2025April 9, 2025 at 1:16 am #185791aspnaz
Participantzerosum said
intellectual property issues
Another usury-like system devised to enable rich people to sit back, do nothing, and collect rent; prime example, Fauci’s medicine patents. The USA wants the rest of the world to adopt their bad habits, habits which now include changing the rules mid game and strong-arming countries into buying their stuff.
Do you think countries will start to realise that an economy relying on the USA is probably not a good idea?
April 9, 2025 at 1:59 am #185792zerosum
ParticipantThe game is called, “USA Monopoly”.
April 9, 2025 at 3:37 am #185793WES
ParticipantMarkets:
The action in derivatives is mostly hidden from us but likely many derivatives positions are being unwound to keep derivatives gamblers alive and avoid an early grave!
Amputate an arm or leg, so the rest of the body can survive.
Some of these derivatives are not on stocks, but rather on bonds.
Stock derivatives were likely the first to go last week, but now we are likely seeing bond derivatives going off, as in bang, bang, you’re dead!The selling of gold is because it can be sold, when other assets often can’t be sold, to raise needed cash to meet margin calls on losing derivative positions.
The desire to sell a losing derivative position, isn’t to maintain the derivative position, but to entirely escape from the derivative, before it pulls you completely under water!We have seen gold sell off quickly and sharply, a classic sign the general markets are on their knees puking their brains and guts out.
It is not because gold owners want to sell their gold first, but because they are given no choice, by their brokers/bankers who often make the call, to sell the owner’s gold because it is always liquid!
Often the gold owner only finds out, after the fact!The market’s unwinding of derivatives is all part of destroying the fake money.
Once this market panic and gold selling subsides, gold prices will recover, taking their sweet time.
April 9, 2025 at 3:55 am #185795WES
ParticipantAspnaz:
I hear many of China’s highly educated unemployed youth have coined a new strategy for dealing with China’s struggling economy.
Not exactly a happy strategy.
Sadly they are coping by “laying flat”.Here, youth are living at home in their parent’s basements.
Basically “laying flat” too.
I am not up on what our term for doing this is.
I assume the same coping pattern is happening in China too?My brother noticed that streets, subways, trains in Shanghai are no longer as busy as they were just a few years ago.
Half the usual number of people.
Another sad sign.April 9, 2025 at 5:08 am #185796aspnaz
Participant@WES SCMP (a Hong Kong paper) had an article on that, something about kids not being interested in working for their exams. Other than that, I know nothing about it and would not know if it is one person or loads of them. I have not seen anything about it in mainland, but I am not really into caring about what kids are up to.
HK has all sorts of mind confusion, trying to be western and trying to be eastern, pining for the days when HK was the gateway to China. Now HK is smaller than Shenzhen, is much more expensive than Shenzhen and lots of the HK locals go to Shenzhen for private medical care, for shopping and just for food. Shenzhen is flooded with them at the weekends. But HK is still the financial interface between China and the rest of the world, hence the HKD is pegged to the USD and there are no capital controls out of HK. The large mainland buy side companies all have offices in HK, as do their sell side. A lot of western Shanghai share trading goes through HKEx.
As for Shanghai, I wouldn’t know what is happening there, but I have friends working there and they have not mentioned anything.
There is also a lot of bullshit spread about China, I would take what you read with a pinch of salt.
BTW, there are not many homes with basements in China.
April 9, 2025 at 9:23 am #185801Dr. D
Participant“They are people.”
I mean, I guess? I was talking exclusively about markets, which are long since divorced from all reality, even all trading.
If you’re looking for the connection to people, we have a P/E of 36, so you’re buying a dollar of the company’s income in 2061. That matters because SALES is where the connection to people is. They MAKE stuff, then they PAY people. All these other levels are abstractions.
What I’m getting tired of is:
“Digit go up: People are being hurt!”
“Digit go down: People are being hurt!”Well THAT can’t possibly be true: a thing and its #Opposite cannot be the same.
So you’re saying “Digit go down” is people are hurt. Meh. Not untrue: that’s pension funds, etc, although largely 92% of Americans can’t tell. It’s really hammering the rich and reducing income disparity, but like I’ve said: Americans still drop from Bud to Icehouse, but the rich stop FLYING TO BELGIUM to drink and have a Leffe at home. So Poor = 5% drop. Rich = 50% drop. (that is, all their stocks, but they still own real assets, houses, businesses in the background)
But that means all things are bad, right? That’s against my statement. Here I’m saying stock go up bad, stock go down bad, stock no move bad.
No. What’s happened is THE WHOLE THING IS A FRAUD. What happens when digit go down is WE ADMIT THE FRAUD — the one that occurred years ago, when no one cared. The vault was robbed by 2001, they were just keeping the people out, preventing us from looking. The STORY they tell about money moving in and out of the vault: All fake! I don’t care what the STORY today is, only that the vault was robbed years ago and we need to arrest the criminals.
THAT is how both can be bad. The price itself barely matters to begin with.
Now maybe we don’t get there. I don’t know what to do if you rob a bank the police are on the take, and the Newtown Boys spend it all half their lives, then pay off their nursing homes. What I CAN tell you is, stocks are not STABLE at P/E 36. You’ve run out of fools. They’re not stable at 18 either, but twice as much.
However, if you ALSO make the companies profitable, then maybe you have a P/E 9 and although that’s not the bottom, it’s infinitely sustainable. There is nothing in or out, good or bad for workers with PE 9. They may be paid, they may not; there might be great conditions or bad ones, that’s all details on the ground, in that factory. …But the Factory won’t get a call one day, say our stock dropped 75%, our credit lines have been pulled and we’re shutting down. Because at a PE 9 you can just continue on like a utility, a farm, a forest, making a few things and paying a few people, with no boom, no bust.
So yes, I care about those PEOPLE you’re talking about. By not hoisting them up to the top of a financial tower and dangling them from a rope. I want them safely on the ground where it’s stable, and their lives can be predictable, so they can have enough visibility to make the HUMAN decisions they need to with human prices that all match and make economic sense in economic reality. Getting a P/E 36 means Thurston thinks he has $500k capital gains and bids up a local house to that level, locking out that factory worker and all his kids. That doesn’t happen when they think they have only $100k — they’re 75% poorer. Joe factory worker isn’t. He’s still making 95% of his average wage.
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