Debt Rattle March 19 2015

[Raúl Ilargi Meijer]

NPC Pittsburg Water Heater Co., Washington DC 1920 • Why The American Dream Is Unraveling, In 4 Charts (MarketWatch) • Federal Reserve Ends Era Of His
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle March 19 2015]

[Dr. Diablo]

Merkel–or the insiders–really needs Greece to be out by the Spanish election. Whatever they have to do to make that happen. Because exiting a currency is a messy business that will come with acute hardship…after which it recovers quite quickly and with virtually no penalty–see Argentina for example.

If the crisis can be made bad enough on Greece, Spain will be scared–as perhaps Scotland was–into staying with the EU for another cycle, when they see how well Greece made out. Another 2 or 4 years may be all they need to accomplish political consolidation, or some other outside plan (a pan-European war?). They may need to sacrifice every man and woman in Greece to terrorize Spain and Italy, but as Albright so famously said, “we think the price is worth it.”

I guess we’ll all find out soon.

[Ken Barrows]

Why does Bloomberg say stupid things like the U.S. oil boom hasn’t slowed yet? Do the reporters look at tables or just rely on an insider’s word?

https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/statisticsvw.asp
Bakken dropped in January over December (and didn’t the year before).

[Dr. Diablo]

BTW interesting, why people no longer believe science, by Scott Adams
https://blog.dilbert.com/post/109880240641/sciences-biggest-fail

“I saw a link to an article in Mother Jones bemoaning the fact that the general public is out of step with the consensus of science on important issues. The implication is that science is right and the general public are idiots. But my take is different.

I think science has earned its lack of credibility with the public. If you kick me in the balls for 20-years, how do you expect me to close my eyes and trust you?

If a person doesn’t believe climate change is real, despite all the evidence to the contrary, is that a case of a dumb human or a science that has not earned credibility? We humans operate on pattern recognition. The pattern science serves up, thanks to its winged monkeys in the media, is something like this:

Step One: We are totally sure the answer is X.

Step Two: Oops. X is wrong. But Y is totally right. Trust us this time.

Science isn’t about being right every time, or even most of the time. It is about being more right over time and fixing what it got wrong. So how is a common citizen supposed to know when science is “done” and when it is halfway to done which is the same as being wrong?

You can’t tell.” –Adams

Also a recent topic on Archdruid Report.

[andrewloz]

I have not seen much about climate science (or any other science) that says “I’m totally sure the answer is X”. Scientific comment tends to be far more circumspect. Indeed that has been one of the criticisms of climate science – the lack of certainty.

I believe that the problems are far better located in education (rather lack thereof) about the scientific process, and in reporting of science (which goes back to the prior point). That, combined with a desire for and expectation of simple answers in a complex world leads to the anti science rhetoric that we are subjected to. The “simple world” model is inculcated in equal parts by politicians, Hollywood and crap television. The reality is that we have benefited hugely – mindbogglingly hugely – from the application of the scientific method. Sadly it’s easy to forget that.

I’m sure going back to superstition, religion and witchcraft will be great. Not.

Seriously, I like Scott Adams cartoons. But he’s got it wrong this time.

[Dr. Diablo]

Certainly. True science, vs. coffee table science, is a messy business that zigs and zags often, with hot, long-running debates that are often ended only by the passing of the scientists of old age. …Only to find what was settled then reverses again. That’s the nature of interpreting mass data outside a narrow replicable range, which at this point, is largely what it’s doing.

But that’s not what science tells the world it’s doing. We can blame journalism or textbooks for saying “X is simple, and X is settled”, but imagine you went to your doctor and said “wing A of science says this on statins/heart/cholesterol, wing B says something a bit different, and wing C the direct opposite.” The answer would be, “Two of those ‘guys’ are cranks, only one is true science.”

To which the skeptic’s answer is, “Which one? You changed your mind the last 9 times.”

Then science wonders why no one takes this week’s pronouncement as gospel. Clearly, the people are stupid, ignorant, and need to take their medicine. Meanwhile, if a scientist WITHIN science poses the exact same objections, it’s considered intelligent, good form, and an exploration of truth. The perpetual dissension permitted to their own members is not their external face, and while pretending to be egalitarian and truth-oriented, is also not “permitted” to anyone outside science.

So maybe it isn’t that the masses don’t know science. Maybe it’s that they’ve come to know “science” too well. And that the family of science has become pretty careless, dysfunctional, and corrupt over the years, while not making much effort in the past few decades to clean up their act. And therefore, perhaps, after long forbearance, they are getting the disrespect they have earned.

The problem is that like governments or markets science does a lot for us, and similarly, any internal corruption is disruptive and costs lives and treasures for which they assume no responsibility. So cleaning up science-for-hire, or say, the recent scandal of publishing 120 computer-nonsense-generated articles, https://www.nature.com/news/publishers-withdraw-more-than-120-gibberish-papers-1.14763 has become a very very big, but also a very very difficult thing…just as we see in government or finance. The difference is, unlike government or finance, they don’t even pretend to reform and still publicly demand respect and obedience.

So problems:
Allows internal members to dissent, but says external dissenters are crazy.
Has publicly contradicted itself for decades on a wide range of subjects but doesn’t see the problem.
Has publicly been openly caught in false science or science-for-hire scandals but still sees itself as white knights.
These errors have been disruptive and/or deadly for individuals or society for more than 100 years.
Unlike government or finance, they don’t even pretend to reform or take responsibility.

Leading to the obvious…
Diminishing confidence of the public in anything “science” says.

People like science. I know I do. But why should they be except from the rules of courtesy, conduct, and karma we expect from everyone else? Fix the problems and the people will go back to trusting them.

[Author]

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