What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
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Fitch has given the ESM, which reportedly became "operational" today, even though the Eurozone members will take years to full its coffers f
[See the full post at: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?]Mortgage Principal Relief comes to Ireland…..
Government proposes easing bankruptcy penalties too…..
Money Quotes:
The Irish government expects to pass a law this year that could encourage banks to substantially cut the amount that borrowers owe on their mortgages……..
Under the new rules, it will be less onerous to declare bankruptcy, making it easier for people to walk away from their homes altogether.Wow, Irish finally get principal relief, AND bankruptcy. That’s really good news for them, well mostly anyway.
Back of the envelope calculation: the Irish Bad Bank owns about 70B (face value) in mortgage notes of a total of 120B in total Irish mortgage debt. Now with Principal Relief, who pays for this? That would be the Irish taxpayers, at least for 59% of it.
Now I’m a big fan of principal relief, don’t get me wrong. Its just – amusing to see that it only happened long after most of the mortgage debts were transferred to the bad bank.
What ever happened to creditors taking losses?
It has taken me a few weeks, but I’ve completed a first pass analysis of the different countries in MENA that have either staged revolutions or are engaged in civil wars, etc, and compared them with the current Greek situation. My top-line thought is, unless something major changes its not gonna happen in Greece – based on it not happening in other MENA nations that had either higher incomes, less corruption, more social spending, and a few other euro-specific factors I think are also critical.
[table]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]GREECE[/td]
[td]”Revolting” MENA[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Avg age[/td]
[td]43[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Per Capita GDP[/td]
[td]28,000[/td]
[td]3,200[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Democracy+Corruption Index[/td]
[td]48[/td]
[td]121[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Social Spending as %Govt Spending[/td]
[td]32%[/td]
[td]17% (approx)[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]Last point. A poll was conducted in March 2012. While only 17% of Greeks reported “my situation is good” (74% of Germans thought so), only 23% of Greeks said they wanted to leave the Euro. They were angry about a whole laundry list of other things about the eurozone (Germany, the ECB, economic control from Brussels, on and on) but on that one key issue – leaving the eurozone – they overwhelmingly wanted to stay. More than ANY other country polled, they wanted to stay.
I think that last detail is critical. Unless that last bit changes, it will be a bunch of relatively well off middle-aged men (compared to people in MENA anyway) sitting around in their cafes and complaining over coffee about the dreadful decrease in social spending, while in MENA it will be a horde of really poor (and immortal-feeling) 20 year old boys getting guns and shooting people because they really don’t have enough money to buy food, so they’ve got nothing to lose.
Situation is similar in Spain; avg age 41, per capita GDP 31k, social spending about 30% of govt spending, and a pretty flat GINI coefficient of 32. (US is 45, right up there with China at 48).
Old people don’t revolt, especially if what they REALLY want to do is to stay in the eurozone.
Of course, this could always change. Best to watch polling numbers for the “leave the euro” parties and see how things transpire.
Police flee from Madrid protestors:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7spGtXJ-DOM
Nice to see them going the other way!
A possible example of “missing the important bits” from Mish today. In his post he talked about the protests against Merkel in Greece and what it signified.
Looking at poll data, its easy to see why these protests occurred. When asked, “do you have a favorable opinion of Germany”, only 21% of Greeks said yes. The rest of the zone polled: Italy had a score of 67%, and they were the lowest. France was highest (higher even than GERMANY) at 84%. The French really respect the Germans.
But the Greeks don’t like Germany (79%). They don’t like the crisis handling skills of Merkel (86%) Sarkozy (83%) Cameron (84%) or their own leader (68%). They don’t like the ECB (80%). They don’t like EU budgetary oversight (75%), and they blame their own government (90%) for their current troubles. Talk about some cognitive dissonance!
But they love the euro (71%) and they REALLY love bailouts (91%). Highest reported values in this particular poll for both categories.
Amazing.
Do you think there will be a revolution in Greece to support leaving the zone? Not if these numbers stand. If you were Greek, and you loved the euro AND bailouts, why on earth would you support revolution? Protest against the hated Merkel: sure, its an easy sell. But perhaps we shouldn’t over-interpret what the implications of these protests really are.
I’m not an advocate for a position, its just the conclusions I’ve drawn from the data I’ve seen. If you look at the same data and draw a different conclusion, I’d be interested to hear it.
And of course if things change on the ground, I reserve the right to change my conclusion.
Raw data:
https://www.pewglobal.org/2012/05/29/chapter-2-views-of-european-unity/
@ Dave, Following up on your poll analysis
Re: Greeks and the Euro
Psychological Research indicates the pain of loss exceeds the pleasure of gain by at least a factor of 2.
In other words: the pain of losing $50 is felt more acutely than the pleasure of gaining $100.
Exiting the Euro = Absolute Certain Loss (Euro become much less valuable Drachma).
Exiting the Euro = Very Uncertain Gain. (Maybe, eventually, after the violence, banking collapse, chaos, martial law, military coup, etc.)……the economy will grow and the Drachma will be worth something.
Given this dynamic, it’s not surprising people will fight like hell before they agree to relinquish what they’ve worked for (their savings in the form of stable currency). Even if they only have a few Euros saved in the bank…..they worked for them……and they don’t want to watch them devalue.
Hey, hey. Principal reduction. If it happened here, would I be “entitled” to a rebate? After having put in 50 hour weeks for 44 years so I could pay cash for my home? Is this the stuff of great societies? Is this a lesson that he who over extends himself the most, wins?
Savings is now discouraged, so there will be no source of capital base, only government ponzi loans and credit, dumped on the public?
Two over extended mortgage holders and an investor in GNMA’s voting on who’s for dinner?
What in hell has gone wrong with this world? What kind of message does that send? Reduce their balance, so they can extend their debt even further. Reward speculation.
In the past, I have carried back, down payments to help out honest folk who were prudent in their housing decisions. NEVER would I EVER risk that in this irresponsible environment. Making an effort to help out in a mutually accepted transaction, and being commanded to take a hit, after the fact?
But, got to ask, who owns all that toilet paper? Certainly not the banks! Not any more. Principal write downs will certainly send a message to all those union, government pension managers (and pensioners, and annuitants) who own all that paper, eh? Of course, in this environment, all the private IRA’s will most likely need be redistributed to those same pensions as well. It’s only “fair.” More of them, than of us, no?
Where I come from, you bite off more than you can chew, you get spanked.
No checks and balances any longer. Never you fear, Nanny State will cover your errors. Deeper and deeper it progresses, until the guns come out and settle the score. Meanwhile, time to sell out of mortgage backed bonds and annuities. These political geniuses won’t want to be out done by an economic power house like Ireland. Do you know where your pension is?
“What could possibly go wrong,” right?
@ Basseterre , on the illustration.
I believe it’s Don Quixote, painted by
Honoré Daumier
With a scene from Zorba The Greek transposed over, and not sure of the watermark like images in the foreground. Appears to be derived from three sources.
Zorba as one of my favorite fiicks, and Don being my “mentor,” I would be curious to know any more you find out.
Professor-
Bankruptcy is a form of principal forgiveness. It comes with a price – no ability to obtain a loan for a period of time. Other forms include principal writedowns to current market value – and there are a lot of ways to skin that particular cat that allows the holder of the mortgage to participate in the potential upside if and when the house is sold for a profit.
Anything that skips the whole foreclose & sell cycle (which is a guaranteed loss for everyone involved, except for the folks picking up the pieces on the other side) would seem to be a whole lot more efficient from a systemic point of view, too.
Honestly, the smartest guys in the room were the people making the loan, in every one of these home mortgage situations. They should have known better, period.
Nations can default, companies can default – why not homeowners? Christianity teaches forgiveness, and allegedly some vast majority of the people in these countries are Christian, yet why is it so difficult when it applies to borrowers?
Its true that “some people” are more comfortable with debtors prisons; its the ultimate form of spanking for those who reneg on their obligations. An excellent deterrent to such behavior.
Personally, I’m not in debt, so I don’t have a dog in the hunt, but until big chunks of principal forgiveness (in whatever form) takes place, we’re not getting out of this mess we’re in.
Viscount –
I can agree with the psychological research you bring up, it seems to be a basic part of human nature.
That’s no doubt in play here – you could also summarize that as “a euro in the hand is worth a fistful of drachma of uncertain value in the future.” Better the devil you know than the even bigger devil you remember from the past!
But I think there’s more here as well.
Greeks really don’t trust their government. They believe their country is the most corrupt country in the eurozone. Of course the Spanish think this about Spain, Italians think this about Italy, but it turns out the Greeks are the ones who are right based on yet another survey I found. When asked who is to blame for the problems, overwhelmingly the Greek government is identified (87%) – banks are a distant second (39%).
So my interpretation is, Greeks see the euro as an important check against their own government’s corruption and penchant for mismanagement. Not the ECB, not Brussels, not Germany – the Euro.
Should we keep the Euro or return to our old currency?
Greece: 71%
France: 69%
Germany: 66%
Spain: 60%
Italy: 52%Bassaterre, Prof L’nL,
I did indeed use Daumier’s Don Quixote and two pics from Zorba. The bottom one is the face of Irene Papas in the film.
@Dave, maybe where you live loans are recourse, which might result in a double whammy. But I would imagine that fact would have been in the mortgage document, so caveat emptor on that. Here in Cally, these notes are, for the most part non recourse, meaning one can simply walk, free as a bird, whereby, if the bank will ever permit it, the balance gets marked to market and it’s over. Hmm, lesson for the banks.
I haven’t heard of anyone going to prison over failure to honor their mortgage commitment, but maybe Ireland is different.
I understand bankruptcy. I have been victimized more than once by professional bankruptcy scammers. Every 7 years, like clockwork, they run with other peoples (my) money. Sure, there are cases where one might come down with an illness or be disabled in some way, but the abuses are there on a very large scale. Nothing like walking up the steps, around the Hummer, of a $1.5 million mansion, put into protection from creditors by some general contractor who didn’t pay me, to sign papers, to make one understand human nature.
My point is, if a contract is signed between two people or entities, and one side does not honor it, that is breach of contract. If this breach is not remedied by some semblance of a Rule of Law, you have no enforcement of contracts, therefor, no justice system, leading ultimately to corruption and collapse of a free society. Mexico comes to mind here, as I have friends who own commercial properties and businesses down there, and will attest to the reasons it will never be a prosperous nation until a strong rule of law is adopted, meaning a credible judicial system.
One cannot sign a contract, then use force of the state to renege on it just because, on a whim, he doesn’t like the terms after the fact. There are more parties involved in a mortgage transaction than just the debtor. For the state to intervene into the agreement and forgive principal is sanctioned theft from the creditor (taxpayer?). This is the same moral hazard that was TARP, TWIST and is QE.
Let’s play with this for a second. I buy a truck for $50,000 and finance it for 60 months, nothing down. Now, I pick up a copy of the Kelly Blue Book a year later and find the truck is now worth $20,000. But I still owe over $40,000 on it. Am I entitled to a principal write down? If so, would you please loan me the money, I need a new truck 😉
Seems when the perception is real estate only goes up, they are lined up like drunks at happy hour to take on debt. Out bidding each other, in some cases. But when it goes the other way, then the devil made them do it. Bottom line…don’t spend more than you are willing to lose (or than you agree to pay back). This is life, as opposed to some fantastic dream of obtaining riches without working for them. This lesson must be conveyed, or we’ll have hell to pay. Well, unless you are in government.
Oh, and, I’m not Jesus. I don’t have to forgive anyone 😉
ps. All my life I have been given every offer under the sun to over extend myself as far as Pie Town, NM. In business credit, home equity lines, charge cards, you name it. I do not hold these offers against those who made them, because it would have been my own signature on the bottom line. By the same token, I take personal credit for not taking them up on it all.
Poverty?
As the administration has now taken to rule by executive order, and the legislative is wholly owned by the same industries as the administration, with the judicial supporting all, protected by a nasty military, my concern is not poverty.
My chief concern now (I don’t do fear) is tyranny. That’s poverty with a shovel in your hand and a gun to your head, as you dig your own grave.
https://www.artmontana.com/article/steele/hisown.htmlAnd if the great American public doesn’t soon stop demanding of it’s captors, cradle to grave security and protection, tyranny will come visit them, to help out, mind you.
This was, of course, for their own protection.
Off thread, but always a fun read, to me at least. From back in the days I was like Stoneleigh and Ilargi, wandering around with my “end is nigh” sandwich board, questioning myself about why I wasn’t Gaw, Gaw over Real Estate like all the “Normal” people.
They were all so happy with their new Chevy Suburbans and vacation homes, and here I was, old rusty truck and paid off house. “Open a HELOC” they said. “Have some fun.” I read this hot off the press and considered myself vindicated. That was in 2004. The peak was hit in late 04, early 2005.
Read it to the end, or it will fly right over you. Or don’t. It’s a classic in my book because it so well elucidated the spirit of the frenzy back then.
Professor –
In Ireland, which was the original source of the discussion point, loans are full recourse, which is why I brought it all up.
Professor, I’d go with your “rule of law” thing if the rules and the laws were applied evenly. They aren’t. All the immense, widespread, egregious fraud engaged in by the lenders during the bubble along with the rest of the “smartest guys in the room” remains unprosecuted by our Rule of Law system. And yet we’re focused on getting that last nickel out of the borrower, lest sacred contract law be breeched.
So yes, I favor as part of bankruptcy law a cramdown provision where as a part of a general personal bankruptcy the principal on home loans get written down to fair market value. Its not a freebee for the borrower, but it is a realistic way for the debt burden to be adjusted to something sustainable without having to go through the costs of foreclosure, which ends up costing everyone involved more money.
As for you being repeatedly victimized by bankruptcy scammers, it would seem to me that doing business with (and/or extending credit to) a serial bankruptcy declarer is a – how do I say this politely – a risky practice. You might consider avoiding doing business with such people in the future.
Just some free business advice. 🙂
Hi All,
Word “on the street” is that the Fed plans to leverage up the “face value” of the MBSes and buy up the interest rate swaps from the Money Power’s banking front corporations… That’s about $400,000 million in interest rate swaps the mega banks can offload onto the tax payer every single month.
Keep your ear to the ground to see if you can confirm this. This is big time looting by the criminal cartel if they are taking this “Art of War” program operational.
Professorlocknload post=5646 wrote: Poverty?
As the administration has now taken to rule by executive order, and the legislative is wholly owned by the same industries as the administration, with the judicial supporting all, protected by a nasty military, my concern is not poverty.
My chief concern now (I don’t do fear) is tyranny. That’s poverty with a shovel in your hand and a gun to your head, as you dig your own grave.
https://www.artmontana.com/article/steele/hisown.htmlAnd if the great American public doesn’t soon stop demanding of it’s captors, cradle to grave security and protection, tyranny will come visit them, to help out, mind you.
This was, of course, for their own protection.
https://www.slideshare.net/guest67c0092/warsaw-ghetto-art-presentationI concur. This is especially true when one does a little research into who inspired Hitler’s eugenics ideas and who funded and promoted Hitler and even Stalin. And who helped to put Pol Pot and Mao in power…
“One is impressed immediately by the sense of national harmony [of dictator controlled slaves]…. Whatever the price of the Chinese Revolution [between 60-80 million lives of men, women and children] it has obviously succeeded… in fostering high morale [productive slaves] and community purpose [slaves that follow orders]. General social and economic progress is no less impressive [the oligarchs had plenty of wealth stripped from the slaves]….The enormous social advances of China [oligarch heaven, plenty of organ donors in political prison camps, slaves that followed orders en masse, while living in poverty] have benefited greatly form the singleness of ideology and purpose…. The social experiment in China under Chairman Mao’s leadership is one of the most important and successful in history.”
David Rockefeller, New York Times, 8-10-1973.This is the mindset of the Money Power who have used Debt Money Tyranny to seize a huge amount of western world control.
Professorlocknload post=5645 wrote: @Dave, maybe where you live loans are recourse, which might result in a double whammy. But I would imagine that fact would have been in the mortgage document, so caveat emptor on that. Here in Cally, these notes are, for the most part non recourse, meaning one can simply walk, free as a bird, whereby, if the bank will ever permit it, the balance gets marked to market and it’s over. Hmm, lesson for the banks.
FYI – Refi loans are recourse in CA. Only the original loan is non-recourse.
Lesson for the banks? Not the mega banks! They are offloading their MBSes to the Federal Reserve to the tune of $40,000 million a month – and you can bet your bottom dollar that zero value 2nd mortgage MBSes and non recourse loans are the first to be transferred to the wholly ignorant and apathetic public that is a willing victim in this crime spree.
Apparently, all Hitler needed was a corporate front scheme and nice suit and tie in order to seize world control from an apathetic populace.
A little birdie is out saying these MBSes will be leveraged to buy up interest rate swaps from mega banks for top dollar – you know, maybe about $400 billion a month or so.
There is more than one version of Trojan Horse. This is Sun Tzu, Art of War to a “T.”
davefairtex post=5636 wrote:
Personally, I’m not in debt, so I don’t have a dog in the hunt, but until big chunks of principal forgiveness (in whatever form) takes place, we’re not getting out of this mess we’re in.Hi Dave, has it ever occurred to you that the “mess we’re in” is precisely the objective of the social engineers?
Does it ever occur to farmer John’s chickens that the cage they are in is precisely the objective of their social engineer?
Regarding the Greeks liking the Euro… populations like bubbles. The Euro has represented as much since its inception.
Populations are not good at long term thinking the likes of, “all bubbles eventually end in approximately inversely proportional busts, therefore, bubbles are bad.”
They want to live the impossible dream… forever… without thinking it through.
Well, the social engineers know this and use it as an attack medium to destroy societies so they can consolidate the wealth under their front corporations and seize control of the country.
But don’t worry, this is all “random.” After all, there is no conspiracy in spite of the entirety of previous human history is all about conspiracy to control populations.
How do we know? The Money Power owned and financed media tells us so and proles can’t think out of their media engineered box.
Trivium –
Hi Dave, has it ever occurred to you that the “mess we’re in” is precisely the objective of the social engineers?
Lots and lots of things have occurred to me over my lifetime. Certainly, that is one of them. Since I’m not in possession of the secret handshake, and I’ve not been invited to any of the the meetings, I can’t properly judge what is and what is not a precise objective of the social engineers – or if said group exists, or if said group is organized, uniform, etc. For those who are NOT in said group or have specific knowledge of actual events that have occurred at said meeting, assuming you have relatively complete knowledge of its motivations and inner workings seems … well lets just say that’s just not my style. I’m a data-driven guy.
For instance, I can speculate why the Greeks want to stay in the eurozone (and I definitely do speculate) but I don’t have the hubris to pretend that I really KNOW why this is the case. And honestly, it’s quite enough for me to know that they currently want to stay. Speculation is really for amusement purposes only. There’s data, and there’s speculation, and I know which is which.
To me, your assertions on all of these “social engineering” matters stray far outside any data I personally have, so I normally choose not to go there. As far as I know, you could be right, you could be wrong, you could be right about direction and wrong on intent – how could I possibly assess for myself what is correct since I have seen you present no actual information at all, just naked assertion. And to me, naked assertion does not constitute reliable data.
Clearly you are convinced of your position. I’m certainly not debating it with you – I can’t, because I have no information with which to do that. And that’s about all I can say on this subject.
davefairtex post=5656 wrote: Trivium –
Hi Dave, has it ever occurred to you that the “mess we’re in” is precisely the objective of the social engineers?
Lots and lots of things have occurred to me over my lifetime. Certainly, that is one of them. Since I’m not in possession of the secret handshake, and I’ve not been invited to any of the the meetings, I can’t properly judge what is and what is not a precise objective of the social engineers – or if said group exists, or if said group is organized, uniform, etc. For those who are NOT in said group or have specific knowledge of actual events that have occurred at said meeting, assuming you have relatively complete knowledge of its motivations and inner workings seems … well lets just say that’s just not my style. I’m a data-driven guy.
For instance, I can speculate why the Greeks want to stay in the eurozone (and I definitely do speculate) but I don’t have the hubris to pretend that I really KNOW why this is the case. And honestly, it’s quite enough for me to know that they currently want to stay. Speculation is really for amusement purposes only. There’s data, and there’s speculation, and I know which is which.
To me, your assertions on all of these “social engineering” matters stray far outside any data I personally have, so I normally choose not to go there. As far as I know, you could be right, you could be wrong, you could be right about direction and wrong on intent – how could I possibly assess for myself what is correct since I have seen you present no actual information at all, just naked assertion. And to me, naked assertion does not constitute reliable data.
Clearly you are convinced of your position. I’m certainly not debating it with you – I can’t, because I have no information with which to do that. And that’s about all I can say on this subject.
Hi Dave, I didn’t mean to offend. I’m a data guy, too, with an aptitude for micro-economics (my favorite class in school and I’m a process engineer by trade).
You know, in general, why the Greeks tend to want to stay in the Euro. They think it benefits them. That’s basic, basic economics theory, not some wild ride of the imagination. Right?
So, why would they think the Euro benefits them when it is a debt backed currency that is engineered to bankrupt them? Using logic applied to the known data, we can reasonably surmise that the temporary ability to buy lots of stuff was really cool and they want to try and keep that party going and avoid the pain of going back to their own currency post Euro bubble relative to their own currency.
This is basic economics on a broad level, not some wild eyed speculation based upon nothing – at least IMHO.
What they apparently don’t understand, like the Argentinians before them who fell for the same bubble / bust trap, is that the bubble is seductive poison before the toxic after effects take place.
The Euro is engineered to enslave Greeks, as well as Germans, too. Debt Money Tyranny only enriches the tyrants in the end – and the average person is not a tyrant.
You should also know that the Federal Reserve has blown a criminal bubble and seriously lied about their mandate for 30 years running. Criminals commit black letter law crimes and then lie about it to cover it up.
Here’s the data, being that we are both data people:
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=207083
Stratpage.com searth “Federal Reserve Act Section 2A” and then read about their true mandate being to keep monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the long term national production potential – NOT TO TAKE IT EXPONENTIAL TO.
The data and logic make it clear that the bubble was criminally undertaken. The lies to cover it up and the lies trying to avoid accountability prove it so beyond any reasonable doubt.
These same criminals oversee Debt Money Tyranny – which is engineered to systematically asset strip society and subjugate them, which is pretty obvious in this chart:
https://www.keepandshare.com/doc/4768883/debtmoneytyranny-6-1-pdf-60k?tr=77
Now, if you expect the criminals to come right out and lay out all the details of their plan in public before you will believe them to be criminals… that’s an unreasonable condition because criminals don’t do that very often. Like, almost never.
You have to engage the data and the logic and remove the contradictions in a reasoned way.
That’s our job as critical thinking free entities who are trying to avoid the enslavement that always seems loom too close for comfort.
Hi Prof LnL,
Some data points and logic to ponder…
“The best way to control the opposition is to lead it.”
~Vladimir LeninThe Libertarian Party: A Rothchild Hack?
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=212587Tragedy and Hope (highly recommended reading, you can search the web for delicious quotes from Georgetown University history professor Carroll Quigley’s book – the guy who influences Presidents)
https://archive.org/details/TragedyAndHope
Always keep your head on a swivel. Always be very suspect of anything big and well financed.
Trivium –
So, why would they think the Euro benefits them when it is a debt backed currency that is engineered to bankrupt them? Using logic applied to the known data, we can reasonably surmise that the temporary ability to buy lots of stuff was really cool and they want to try and keep that party going and avoid the pain of going back to their own currency post Euro bubble relative to their own currency.
No. We cannot “reasonably surmise.” That’s just your guess, based on…your guess. One of many possible guesses that might be equally valid.
I believe you engage in this sort of thinking often. You make a lot of unsupported claims, ones that rely almost completely on you starting from the premise that a criminal conspiracy exists, and then you interpret the evidence (which might have alternative and equally valid interpretations) as support for this alleged conspiracy. They call this technique the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.
Let’s use Greece as an example. You surmised it was all about restarting party time. Another guess (just as valid, in my eyes) as to why Greeks might want to stay with the euro might be, the Greek people found the drachma to be a terrible currency where the government stole value from them egregiously through inflation, and those that have pensions or government jobs remember this, and really don’t want them inflated away.
Given the median age is 43, they likely remember the drachma quite well, their population pyramid sucks (they have a metric ton of old people there), and so they may well be focused much more on keeping what they have, and substantially less on re-igniting party time.
I’m not saying this is The Correct Explanation – I’m just trying to point out your claim of “reasonably surmising” is just your guess, and is one of many reasonable (and conflicting) guesses that can be made about the evidence. It’s definitely not the only reasonable choice.
I see this to be the case all throughout your reasoning about your criminal conspiracy. Interpretations – reasonable interpretations – that don’t support your starting theory of criminal conspiracy are simply dismissed.
These same criminals oversee Debt Money Tyranny – which is engineered to systematically asset strip society and subjugate them, which is pretty obvious in this chart:
A good example of the Texas Sharpshooter. You’re starting from the conclusion and working backward.
Here is an alternate interpretation. The credit money system evolved during a time of exponential growth. There was a NEED for an ever-growing amount of money in the system. This system worked pretty well during our exponential growth period throughout industrialization and our subsequent growth in energy resources. It just grew like topsy. The guys in charge tried to fix the bits that failed periodically as best as they could incrementally, and the ones in charge are trying to keep things working based on their 200 years of understanding on How Stuff Works in Credit Money Land. Now that energy resources aren’t growing exponentially anymore, Credit Money is encountering difficulties. Once energy resources start shrinking, Credit Money will likely fail pretty dramatically. But since such a resource constraint issue is not part of our history, they are quite reluctant to come to this conclusion. Generals always fight the last war – and in this case, the last 100 wars.
To me, that’s a perfectly valid interpretation of events, supported by the evidence I see. It doesn’t mean it is right, but it is supported by the evidence.
But ultimately I have to ask, why does it matter?
Credit Money will likely blow up because of its design, resource constraints, and circumstances. Its either run by evil people, or by people who are just trying to keep the machine going. Which it is doesn’t matter. The outcome is the same.
Unless of course you propose running some sort of campaign to uncover then root out these extant shadowy criminal group and bring them to justice, we’re both just observers in the grand play, and its likely more useful to focus not on blaming the shadowy set of characters (we have ALWAYS loved scapegoats) that may or may not exist, but rather on systemic effects and how they will end up affecting us.
By the way – I’m a big fan of the Z1. I look forward to reading it every release. Just know that its really just a survey conducted every couple of years with the interim data points being (likely) interpolations and/or guesses likely based on data the Fed gets from other places. But its the best data we’ve got.
@ Dave ….
Re: Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
Terry Gross had a great interview with political statistician and modeler Nate Silver. In 2008, his models correctly predicted the outcomes of all 35 Senate races and 49 out of 50 State Presidential outcomes.
The Secret to his success?
Silver emphasized the need to strip away pre-conceived conclusions, and let the data tell the story.https://www.npr.org/2012/10/10/162594751/signal-and-noise-prediction-as-art-and-science
Dave,
Write downs don’t punish banks at this juncture. They punish savers, taxpayers and pensioners, who hold all that toxic dung that was dumped on them through FNMA, GNMA, Sally Mae, FHFA, FRB yada. And no, I don’t want to see that happen. It amounts to not much more than a wealth transfer from the prudent to the imprudent.
This entire exhibition of greed has done enough damage’ lest it land on those who can least afford it. Been out of the mortgage markets for decades. As I stated, I don’t do bad debt. If I want a new house, I’ll build the son-of-a-bitch, hip pocket, not cow tow to some banker derelict. I’ll relate the story of what one of those subhumanoids did to me 35 years ago, hence my tendency to evict the species from my space, by whatever blunt means available! Some other day.
As for BK pro’s, the construction industry is dog eat dog. NO contractor I know hasn’t been burned. Happens at the turn of every Fed induced business cycle, or used to, before they tightened it up.
It was rampant, especially in the very transient, lawyer infested Silicon Valley area I used to work in many years ago, before I woke up and left that nest of freaks in the rear view mirror, to cannibalize each other out there, on their endless freeway parking lots, and got a life. With nine out of ten tech startups failing by default, BK was part of the government subsidy to “encourage” entrepreneurship. Just happened the anti gamblers among us were on the unintended consequence side of that. No lobby of sole proprietors, it seems.
So, it’s either the techies ripping folks off with big brother’s blessing, or the banks. Find a common theme here? Big gov…..All the same corporatocracy.
And now that all that mortgage paper is privately owned, the debt addicts want to shuck the loss on to the savers and taxpayers again, utilizing their big assed government. But, looking at the debt to gdp of Ireland, I’m not going to ship any money over to that “well run” nation anytime soon.
==============================================Trivuim,
Just knowin’ you’re gonna like this link! If you haven’t already seen it. Dovetails right into your eugenics deal. As a skeptical spectator, I’ll give it a 4 stars out of 5. Careful with the Darwin quotes though. Even though the one about the Irish being the inferior race appeared in his work, it was encased by ” .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQiW_l848t8&list=PL463AA90FD04EC7A2&index=1&feature=plpp_video
Also, I have intimate connections with the Mises camp, with a kid who is an Austrian Economist, and many of the good people who work in the field. For a better understanding than I can offer here, due to time constraints, get with Richard Ebeling, Tom Woods and many others. I will be contacting them with your concerns and hopefully be able to clarify further. As I said, I ALWAYS go to the source. The web being such an efficient BS incubator.
Track this guy down, he is the guru. And a straight shooter. https://mises.org/authors/361/Richard-M-Ebeling
I will get his email for you if you can’t get it from Auburn.
Denninger? Got a little more surefooted mule than that? I mean, we’re on the edge of a deep canyon here.
Professorlocknload post=5661 wrote: Trivuim,
Just knowin’ you’re gonna like this link! If you haven’t already seen it.
Pretty funny. Prof, meet Triv.
Trivium,
Here are all the emails you need to clear up the misconception that the Mises Institute has any affiliation with Rockefeller. Suggest you start with the institutes founder, Lew Rockwell. The original Anti-Statist, anti-Rockefeller. I’ll also contact Mark Thornton, in an effort to track down the rumor, most likely the RNC, or out of some conspiracy cave.
That lead presented, there is much about the Classical Liberal philosophy that is misunderstood. There is also much reason for the republicrat party/s to fear it’s truths. Especially their worshiped Federal Reserve Bank.
Steve B, “Pretty funny. Prof, meet Triv.”
Care to help me understand that? I’m new around these parts and don’t know too many here yet.
Professorlocknload post=5666 wrote: Steve B, “Pretty funny. Prof, meet Triv.”
Care to help me understand that? I’m new around these parts and don’t know too many here yet.
Hi Prof, I think the joke is that I was told not to post that link to Gatto’s video any more since I had already posted it too much. 😉
davefairtex post=5659 wrote: Trivium –
So, why would they think the Euro benefits them when it is a debt backed currency that is engineered to bankrupt them? Using logic applied to the known data, we can reasonably surmise that the temporary ability to buy lots of stuff was really cool and they want to try and keep that party going and avoid the pain of going back to their own currency post Euro bubble relative to their own currency.
No. We cannot “reasonably surmise.” That’s just your guess, based on…your guess. One of many possible guesses that might be equally valid.
Hi Dave, I’m not guessing how debt based money works in the aggregate, I know how it works in the aggregate. It works like this…
https://www.keepandshare.com/doc/4768883/debtmoneytyranny-6-1-pdf-60k?tr=77
Since that money / debt flow chart didn’t seem to “click” with you, let me explain it another way.
You are the bank and I am society.
You lend me $20 at 5% interest so I can run my economy with $20 cash.
After 1 year, I owe you $21, yet, you only created $20 to give to me.
Now, those that say this debt is unpayable are technically wrong. It is payable under three circumstances:
1. I work for you and, in a timely manner, earn all the interest paid to you ($1) and return it to you, in a timely manner, so I’ve paid back $21.
2. I sell you my stuff, in a timely manner, earn all the interest paid to you ($1) and return it to you, in a timely manner, so I’ve paid back $21.
3. I rob you and pay back the $21 in a timely manner.
Dave, do you see how that is a rigged system from the standpoint of society?
You, the “bank,” literally control the destiny of me, society – holding it literally hostage to bankruptcy.
If you don’t understand this fraud perpetrated upon society, you will not understand what I’m saying and you will reach erroneous conclusions about my arguments and my conclusions.
I get that the societal narrative is that conspiracy is off limits as though it never occurs (read some history – it is all about conspiracy -lol-, and duly note that this societal, anti-conspiracy, anti-critical thinking narrative is a conspirator’s wet dream) and only “kooks” develop conspiracy hypothesis based on data and logic.
But the societal narratives can be financed into existence and often misrepresent reality to the self interest of the very powerful. One such false narrative is that the Federal Reserve claims its mandate to be to maintain low unemployment and stable prices.
That’s a bald faced lie.
That’s not their mandate. If you actually read the mandate, you should be able to figure out the lie. If you can’t, I will expose the lie for you.
But that’s not the only lie. Stable prices are not ever inflating )exponentially growing) prices. The Fed lies about its mandate and then can’t even keep its lie!
Oh, but it gets better, Dave. There is no penalty in Section 2A of the Federal Reserve Act, is there? Read it again. And again. And again. No penalty, right?
That means it isn’t even a law – for a law without a penalty isn’t really a law, it is propaganda.
But the non propaganda laws that apply to serfs, well, they have penalties. H8ll, Dave, there are even penalties for legally protesting the fact that the oligarch laws have no penalties – and that’s not even illegal! See how that works?
But not the oligarch class… But I’m sure these lying, black letter law criminals are just too stupid to know that a law needs a penalty… well, except when those laws apply to you and I. Then they get “smart” all of a sudden.
See how that works? Except it doesn’t work. It is only logical if the banker financed law makers never intended for the Federal Reserve to keep the law, therefore, they didn’t impose any penalties for breaking the laws, the Federal Reserve went on to knowingly and criminally break the law (in cohort with the mega banks whose owners control the Federal Reserve System – imagine them knowing they would blow the world’s largest credit bubble in advance… what money to loot from society by leveraging up into it!) and now they lie on multiple levels to cover up their complicity.
Now that makes perfect sense. it explains the fake law, it explains the criminal activity, it explains the lying and cover up.
“This Act establishes the most gigantic trust on earth….When the President signs this Act, the invisible government by the Money Power, proven to exist by the Money Trust Investigation, will be legalized….The money power overawes the legislative and executive forces of the Nation and of the States. I have seen these forces exerted during the different stages of this bill….”
~Congressman Charles A. Lindbergh, referring to the act which established the Federal Reserve. Congressional Record, Vol. 51, p. 1446. December 22, 1913.“Gentlemen! I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States. I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank [now they offload it to ignorant tax payers – even better!]. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will
ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin [Bingo!]! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I have determined to rout you out, and by the Eternal, (bringing his fist down on the table) I will rout you out!”
~From the original minutes of the Philadelphia committee of citizens sent to meet with President Jackson (February 1834), according to Andrew Jackson and the Bank of the United States (1928) by Stan HenkelsWHO created the Federal Reserve System that you want to claim was some kind of societal coping mechanism decided upon by a society and not a few private financial oligarchs at Jekyll Island?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu_VqX6J93k
How come a debt based monetary system is required to create the inflation that you correctly state was required to work with and promote a growing population and economy?
There are lots and lots and lots of data points that need to be aggregated before before concluding what makes us feel most comfortable.
As for my purpose, yes, it is to highlight the criminal class and to bring them to justice – isn’t that what one does for criminals? Or has Stockholm Syndrome become so prevalent that we are just supposed to be serially victimized by oligarchs and ask for more and, perhaps, fight anyone who would dare try to bring justice to the criminal oligarch class?
In addition, I have concluded that Thomas Jefferson was right…
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson (Ford, writings of Thomas Jefferson, 10:4)
If society is not aware of the criminals who perpetuate societal-wide fraud or, worse yet, they actually protect them from exposure, society is doomed to a future of tyrannical neo-feudal serfdom.
Again, that conclusion is based on many, many data points that I’d be happy to share if anyone is interested.
“All war is deception.”
~Sun Tzu, Art of War“Under the Federal Reserve Act, panics are scientifically created. The present panic is the first scientific one, worked out as we figure a mathematical equation.”
~Charles A. Lindbergh (Congressman, The Economic Pinch, 1921)“Since I entered politics, I have chiefly had men’s views confided to me privately. Some of the biggest men in the United States, in the field of commerce and manufacture, are afraid of somebody, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive, that they had better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it.”
~President Woodrow Wilson“The bank, Mr. van Buren, is trying to kill me. I will kill the bank.”
~President Andrew Jackson“And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale.”
~Thomas Jefferson“Yes, we may all congratulate ourselves that this cruel war is nearing a close. It has cost a vast amount of treasure and blood. The best blood of the flower of American youth has been freely offered upon our country’s altar that the nation might live. It has been, indeed, a trying hour for the republic; but I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country. As a result of the war corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudice of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the republic is destroyed. I feel at this moment more anxiety for the safety of my country than ever before, even in the midst of the war. God grant that my suspicion may prove groundless.”
~Abraham Lincoln“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning… The one aim of these financiers is world control by the creation of inextinguishable debt.”
~Henry FordWe have to become more sophisticated as a society so that the wolves can’t keep preying upon us and our families.
If we don’t, the current trajectory will not only not change, it will accelerate.
Professorlocknload post=5665 wrote: Trivium,
Here are all the emails you need to clear up the misconception that the Mises Institute has any affiliation with Rockefeller.
Hi Prof, that isn’t what I said.
I said the Rockefeller Foundation financed Mises’ trip to the United States and then funded Mises himself.
I have no doubt that Rockwell despises the Rockefellers and, I’d venture to guess, he’d never accept Rockefeller money out of disgust for the source of the money.
But that doesn’t mean that the Money Power crowd can’t find value in how to leverage libertarianism as the “opposition” to their current criminal operation.
I think Rockwell is more honest than people like Ron Paul, though. Rockwell calls the Federal Reserve criminals – because they are.
Paul has this fake shtick about these criminals being “academics” or the like. That’s pure poppycock and I believe the chance of Paul being that ignorant are exceptionally low.
Triv,
Got it, on the vid. Some interesting thoughts in that series. Didn’t know it’s old soap here. I ran across it a few months ago. I watch it all, from 2016 to Michael Moore, to “Collapse”, and Sesame Street, you name it. Political Atheists can do that. Good way to keep enemies close, except Oscar.
As for Lew Rockwell and Ron Paul, both are honorable men IMO. RP’s voting record states that. The Ludwig von Mises Scholars I’ve read and encountered over the last 30 years, many who knew Mises personally, say the same of him. And, most certainly, Rockefeller and Mises had nothing in common ideologically. Promoters of Central Power and Free Market advocates just don’t mix.
On said donations from Rockefeller Foundation. If I found myself trying to bring liberty and freedom of personal choice to the world, I would gladly accept funds from a Foundation, even if it’s ideology differed from mine. Heck, I’ve even built structures for folks who’s politics differed tremendously from mine, for money. Matter of fact, most of my customers differed in ideology. D’s and R’s mostly. Very few “Not Affiliated”
On the Fed consisting of a bunch of academics, well, isn’t Bernanke?
Keep your powder dry. It just could be they are losing their grip. Words out. RP did that much for us.
Meanwhile, rock on. Life is good.
I see the Builders are starting to get overanxious as they enter overtime and as their timeline starts overlapping that of the delayed slaves. The quotes remain the same, though, from dead dudes who lived when the foundations of the pyramid were just being laid, and have zero relevance whatsoever. Now, let’s invoke that free market unicorn again. :whistle:
p01 post=5673 wrote: I see the Builders are starting to get overanxious as they enter overtime and as their timeline starts overlapping that of the delayed slaves. The quotes remain the same, though, from dead dudes who lived when the foundations of the pyramid were just being laid, and have zero relevance whatsoever. Now, let’s invoke that free market unicorn again. :whistle:
History has no relevance?
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”
~George SantayanaProf LnL, I don’t doubt that Mises was his own man and didn’t purposefully shill for Money Power interests, but I do believe they found enough in his theories that they funded him as their “opposition,” a roll in which his theories play a roll today.
If you were mega corporations, wouldn’t you want a “free market” after you’ve already rigged the system and are the biggest kid on the block by far?
If you had manipulated the gold standard to rob the average person for hundreds of years, wouldn’t you want a legion of people promoting the very mechanism that you’ve used to enslave so many before?
Now, I think that Mises’ theories apply in an ideal world, just not so much in a world where a misguided self interest plays such a key roll – and gets worse up the power pyramid.
As an example, I don’t think the average al Qaeda fighter in Libya or Syria knows that they are tools of the Money Power… yet they are.
1. West (Money Power hijacked) targets Russia -> al Qaeda
2. West (Money Power hijacked) targets Serbia -> al Qaeda
3. Money Power targets American civil liberties and initiates the full on police state excuse -> al Qaeda
4. West (Money Power hijacked) targets non threatening Libya -> al Qaeda
5. West (Money Power hijacked) target Syria -> al QaedaYou are dead on – political frameworks are cognitive ball and chains. Removing the ball and chains open up the world for discovery.
TheTrivium4TW post=5675 wrote:
History has no relevance?
Yes, it does. Slavery and serfdom is what all recorded (less than 1% of Man’s existence on the planet) history was all about, and it’s guaranteed to repeat again (the other possible outcome is, of course, nuclear winter). However, you are obsessed with effects and somehow have a very distorted view of the “Good Ole Past”, when the Moral-estests of bearded (and sometimes not so bearded) Men walked the Earth (it’s a cargo cultist type of thing that many of us are somehow drawn into: some worship Atlantis, others Greece, Rome, the 50’s, the 60’s, the Founding Father’s Era, or other romanticized versions of the Great Past). Everybody agrees there’s a criminal clique up there. The problem is not the clique, it’s the amount of power they have, and that is built into civilization by definition. But if you acknowledged the cause, there won’t be much to ramble about, would it? The cause it the Ultimate Conversation Stopper. Ever. And it’s irreversible.
@Triv,
“You are dead on – political frameworks are cognitive ball and chains. Removing the ball and chains open up the world for discovery. “
But removing the ball and chains involves risk. Not for the weak spirited.
That stated, even within Auschwitz there were markets.
History? The one that “never repeats, but sometimes rhymes?” M.Twain
If it doesn’t fit the agenda, go back and change it. It’s done every day. I prefer the now, with just enough respect for the “then,” to avoid undue pain.
All wagers are on human action and reaction, not the way some central planner demands that it be.
p01,
When it all goes boom, we can go to the government store and take a number. Or stay active in the “unicorn” free market. These ‘Maters I get from the back woods folks are soooo much nicer than the ones with the green seeds from the regulated union grocery store monopoly. Of course, they might cost me a jar of tuna. No slot for that in the register at safeway.
Dead guys?
Maybe those old dead dudes should have just stuck with the Church of England, and basked in absolute security?
Security? A human concept, promoted by overlords. That’s all. Waiting for it is waiting for Godot.
Get free…
https://www.freedomainradio.com/About.aspx
Hope Stefan doesn’t turn out to be a rocky feller in drag 😉
Trivium –
I already know how the debt/money system works, I’m surprised you didn’t pick that up from the few times I’ve mentioned it before. It makes me wonder if you actually read what I write. Good explanation though.
Sure its clear bankers benefit from the current system, and its also clear they are a powerful group these days. The Fed certainly works for the banks. And people in debt have big problems – in aggregate. But that combination of facts doesn’t necessarily add up to some eternal dark, ultrapowerful group of conspirators bent on owning everything and the total domination of mankind that you talk about.
The common thread in all of it is, I see you making a leap beyond the evidence which to me isn’t justified. And you have a level of certainty about it that (again to me) isn’t justified either.
Of course, I can’t prove this conspiracy doesn’t exist – that would be proving a negative.
However I’ll always be interested to read any new bits of evidence you unearth. I can always find new information interesting even if I don’t share the opinions of the presenter.
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