Bullturnedbear
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Long time reader and uber bear. Haven’t posted for years though.
I have felt for years that Australia would follow the real estate crash path of Ireland. Australia had no recession during the GFC or since. With the exception of some regional and South East Queensland markets, real estate has remained strong in Australia. This is despite the fact that Australia has the highest home loan debt to GDP ratio in the world and some of the highest debt to median household income ratios in the world.
In the last 18 months interest rates have been falling and now that home loan rates are down to around 5.25% (RBA cash rate is 2.75%) the media is all excited about another housing boom. Go figure. I am starting to think that the media may be right, as RBA interest rates trending toward zero could stimulate one last housing bubble fling.
The caveat on this is what happens around the globe. If the world economy falls into a deep recession/depression then Australia will not buck the trend, despite zero interest rates. It all swings on how long it takes for the real economy to give up on the fantasy of borrowing more money to paper over the endless losses on failed borrowings.
If the Ponzi lasts two more years, Australia is headed for another housing bubble on top of the already years of bubbles. If the global Ponzi ends in 2013 Australian real estate will be in the toilet within two years.
Again I wait and watch. Frozen like a kangaroo in the headlights.
“I have seen it twice now.”
This line impacted me the most. The fact that it has happened elsewhere does not mean that it will happen where I am now? Ignorance in the face of a line like that is downright stupid. Running off to the worst possible conclusion is scary. Yet aiming for the middle ground may also turn out to be ignorance.
I am desperately sad that you guys aren’t coming to Sydney. I’ve been reading TAE since 2008. I am a big devotee. I can’t make it to Coffs Harbour or Bungendore this weekend.
I am missing Ilargi big time. Please post from the road dude.
I hope you guys are having a wonderful and welcoming time in Australia.
