Mark_BC
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Alan, China’s industrial “miracle” could only have happened as a result of the west’s de-industrialization. And there seems to be lots of evidence that they are in a huge bubble of their own. Recently they lowered rates. Don’t forget, the stronger the growth, the faster it will hit limits.
Phoenix Capital has been dead wrong in probably every prediction they’ve made every month for the last few years. Why? Because the central banks buy all this stuff to bring it wherever they want. None of the previous bubbles provide a reference to compare today’s since that never used to happen.
Seriously, if I had done the complete opposite of what Phoenix Capital had said to do, I’d be a rich man today.
“Most Gold detractors are Leftists as well.”
That seems to be the case, but I am left of centre and a huge believer in gold. There are a few left leaning gold commentators out there.
I agree that they can push the gold price around all they want, except that pretty soon they are going to run out. The numbers for physical gold flooding into Asia is astounding (and that is going to private individual sales so it’s not like the central banks over there could use that gold to continue the shenanigans). I’m surprised it’s lasted as long as it has. Based on how much gold the western central banks purportedly held, the end seems to be nigh… This could be why they are now beginning to crash the system.
Raleigh, I agree with most of what you say. But if we now have a glut of supply, then where are all the overflowing oil storage tanks?
Apparently the producers aren’t slowing production, according to what I am hearing here and elsewhere (they can’t afford to), so there is now a supply/demand imbalance which doesn’t make sense.
The artificially pumped up demand for oil since 2008 was matched with artificially pumped up supply via the shale oil bubble — no way those things would have been possible in a normal interest rate environment without free Wall Street money flowing.
I don’t buy that this oil price crash is a debt unravelling event, the long-anticipated great deflationary crash finally unfolding. I see no evidence of any sudden collapse in consumer demand to warrant this. There are more nefarious forces at play here.
One could be that Saudi has now aligned with Russia and/or China and wishes to crash the west’s financial system. Why do this now? Presumably because the gold has run out and it is time. A nice diversion. However, Saudi switching alliances like that would be a big deal and if so I’d presume we would have seen a lot more drama coming from Washington about that.
Another possibility could be that it is actually the West’s elites who are still working with Saudi Arabia as they always have, and deliberately crashing the West’s financial system and energy infrastructure. That way they can “buy when there’s blood on the streets”. Most of the weaker producers with low EROEI and high debt will go belly up, leaving only the strong producers standing, albeit in a fragile state. Those strong producers would be the Middle East, Alberta oil sands, various offshore projects, and the remaining legacy producers still pumping away their old wells. Then after the deliberately-triggered deflationary crash happens the currency will hyperinflate as that is the next rung of untenable debt down the ladder of lies, and real oil prices will skyrocket as reality finally sets in to the financial system after 4 decades. Then the elites will be left holding all the cards. Why are they doing this now? Probably the same reason as in possibility #1 above, because the gold is now gone!
I don’t believe for a second that this price crash is happening on its own accord as a result of genuine market forces, and especially not from lack of demand.
TheTrivium, lending at 3% causes the lender to lose money since real inflation is greater than that. The criminals don’t make money by loaning out money and making a paltry 2 or 3%, they make money by gaming the system with derivatives and looting it that way. And by counterfeiting.
There seems to be something inconsistent in the argument in this post. On one hand, they say that the price of oil is plunging because of a crash in consumer demand as presumably the great widely predicted deflationary crash is happening. Because of simple supply/demand dynamics, this would entail that supply is dropping, since the market is so tight. But then on the other hand, they argue that no country can afford to cut production, and that OPEC isn’t. So how does that jive? How can demand tank, but then production remain full tilt? This makes no sense, as it would be creating gluts of oil everywhere. The market is razor thin, with very little above ground supply held. Demand has always virtually identically matched supply. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is only a few months of supply.
So where is all this excess oil then? Do we have evidence of it spilling over all the storage tanks around the world? That’s why I do not believe this oil price plunge is a result of tanking demand. I think it is a strategic move, probably by OPEC (Saudi Arabia) and Russia, to flood the market with cheap oil to hurt certain producers, most probably the US. And they are probably lying about their production numbers. It is a supply side shock, not a demand side shock.
