Viscount St. Albans
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Much of the trouble we face today centers on the issue of ‘Rational Response.’
What is the ‘Rational Response’ to our societal problems.
For example, take two well-known and seemingly intractable problems:
1) Criminals are known to make their entry through the back-door.
2) Strawberry Danish are delicious and fattening.In consideration of these dilemmas, and the “Rational Response’: I’ve invested in a rowing machine and I’ve taken to wearing two layers of pants at all times.
The double-layered pants offer indispensable reaction time. Before the perpetrator can penetrate the outer fabric en route to my back door, I’m well aware of his intention. Defensive maneuvers can begin with the safety pants still intact.
And the rowing machine, of course, enables me to enjoy all the scrumptious strawberry Danish I can possibly eat without fear of belly fat and outgrowing my safety pants.So you see, even in our complex and difficult circumstances, the ‘Rational Response’ is indeed possible. You’ve got to work hard to crack the nut before it cracks you.
Don’t get me wrong: I’m all for licking a light socket now and then (after all, we do need a bit of zizzle zazzle to spice things up every once in a while).
But what do you do with folks like this? Tongue amputation?
————-Typical boomerang buyers are people like April Del Rosario, who purchased her first home in 2006 when she was 24 years old. Newly married and unsure of what terms such as adjustable-rate mortgage meant, Ms. Del Rosario and her husband paid $315,000 for a two-bedroom condominium in San Diego’s Mission Valley area, a location they picked because it was central to their jobs. The $2,600 monthly mortgage payment was already a struggle, but when the mortgage rate was adjusted higher and Ms. Del Rosario became pregnant, the couple was overwhelmed. They lost the home to foreclosure in 2009.
“We were really young and stupid,” she says. “All of a sudden, our already really expensive mortgage was going to go up. I was pregnant and everything was just bad timing on our part.”
Three years later, the couple is back in the market. The Del Rosarios were recently approved for a loan for a $280,000 home in Chula Vista, south of San Diego, which, when it is completed in January, will have three bedrooms and a two-car garage. Instead of proximity to work, they picked the location based on its school district and their desire to live there a long time. And while they now must pay $300 a month in mortgage insurance, the family’s income has grown, and their total mortgage payment is still a little lower than before, around $2,400. “We’re trying to be really conservative. We just want to have a nice place for our son,” she says.
see link above….
———————-I’m sure sweet little Junior (Apple of Mommy’s eye) will appreciate that 2-car garage.
Sloppy Seconds, anyone?
From today’s Wall Street Jounral:
Millions of families lost their homes to foreclosure after the housing crash hit six years ago. Now, some of those families are back in the housing market. Call them the “boomerang” buyers.…….
@ Dave ….
Re: Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
Terry Gross had a great interview with political statistician and modeler Nate Silver. In 2008, his models correctly predicted the outcomes of all 35 Senate races and 49 out of 50 State Presidential outcomes.
The Secret to his success?
Silver emphasized the need to strip away pre-conceived conclusions, and let the data tell the story.https://www.npr.org/2012/10/10/162594751/signal-and-noise-prediction-as-art-and-science
@ Dave, Following up on your poll analysis
Re: Greeks and the Euro
Psychological Research indicates the pain of loss exceeds the pleasure of gain by at least a factor of 2.
In other words: the pain of losing $50 is felt more acutely than the pleasure of gaining $100.
Exiting the Euro = Absolute Certain Loss (Euro become much less valuable Drachma).
Exiting the Euro = Very Uncertain Gain. (Maybe, eventually, after the violence, banking collapse, chaos, martial law, military coup, etc.)……the economy will grow and the Drachma will be worth something.
Given this dynamic, it’s not surprising people will fight like hell before they agree to relinquish what they’ve worked for (their savings in the form of stable currency). Even if they only have a few Euros saved in the bank…..they worked for them……and they don’t want to watch them devalue.
Mortgage Principal Relief comes to Ireland…..
Government proposes easing bankruptcy penalties too…..
Money Quotes:
The Irish government expects to pass a law this year that could encourage banks to substantially cut the amount that borrowers owe on their mortgages……..
Under the new rules, it will be less onerous to declare bankruptcy, making it easier for people to walk away from their homes altogether.Mortgage Principal Relief comes to Ireland…..
Government proposes easing bankruptcy penalties too…..
Money Quotes:
The Irish government expects to pass a law this year that could encourage banks to substantially cut the amount that borrowers owe on their mortgages……..
Under the new rules, it will be less onerous to declare bankruptcy, making it easier for people to walk away from their homes altogether.@ Dave,
I enjoyed studying your silver & gold price graph from the Depression years.
Many thanks for bringing your data-centric approach (graphs, historical documents, etc.) to commentary.I find Nigel Frange and the EuroSkeptic’s perscription naive. He suggests:
Greece should leave the Euro
devalue
and fight her way back to competitiveness
——-
And what would be the response among Euro-zone neighbors to a dramatic devaluation?
I’d imagine: trade barriers.tit-for-tat tariffs, capital controls, policies promoting autarky, the creation of exclusive trade zones.
All of that dissolves the bonds between elites in one nation and another….and disagreement among elites is the foundation of war.
The gradual dissolution of the nation state through globalization is one of humanity’s greatest achievements. The creation of the ICBM tipped with nuclear warheads rendered the nation state obsolete. At that point, the writing was on the wall for nationalists: you’re on the losing team. Wave the flag for parade day and what-not, but train has left the station on global integration.
The expanding eurozone and the progression toward global digital currency and world government is the only route to lasting peace. It’s true to say that moving forward with global integration is the only objective worth pursuing. You grow or you shrink. Stasis is not an option. Retrenchment to nation states is a precursor to a shooting war.
Recent elections show a strengthening of EuroZone consolidation within the core.
The Dutch elections from only 3 weeks ago show the Euro-skeptic parties are in full-blown retreat. Pro-EuroZone parties decisively defeated the anti-Euro Freedom Party of Geert Wilders.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19566165Only 4 months ago (June 2012), Britain’s Independence Party leader Nigel Farage was encouraging everyone to watch the Dutch election as a bellwether for shifting European opinion regarding the Eurozone. He claimed it would show the tide had shifted toward breakup.
Well…..the tide shifted, but not in the direction of Euro-skepticism. Farage looks rather foolish now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWj18iOBpwo&feature=player_embedded@ Dave…..good points.
And the upcoming German federal election is 1-year away (Sept. 2013). If there’s incentive to do window-dressing prior to the US election, then there’s even more impetus to break-out the lipstick prior to the German election. As you mentioned, I expect lots of ‘looking the other way’ until Angela is re-elected.
Angela wouldn’t be making her trip to Greece if she were planning to boot them anytime soon. I expect a temporary loosening of austerity to let off some of the pressure (it’ll be marketed as short-term stimulus in exchange for long-term cuts, and asset sales).
It’s the mortgages, stupid.
The base of the $700 trillion inverted credit pyramid is the IOU — the promise to pay and the cracked knee-caps if you don’t. And well over half of those private IOUs are mortgages.
And, as Ilargi has pointed out many times before: No, the private banks aren’t going to pay for it.
WSJ headline: J.P. Morgan Sued on Mortgage Bonds
New York’s top prosecutor opened a new front in efforts to hold banks accountable for the financial crisis by filing a civil lawsuit against J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., alleging widespread fraud by the company’s Bear Stearns unit in the sale of mortgage-backed securities.
https://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444138104578030903731665328.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories
————————————————————–Money spills out the front door via lawsuits. Meanwhile, quietly, the backdoor creaks as money flows right back in (via ZIRP, via accounting mumbo-jumbo, via tax-breaks and refundable credits, via QE, via capital injections etc.)
This election = Mortgages (67% of private debt)
What happened to the 2008 financial crisis toxic assets (MBS, CDO, CDO squared, etc)?
What about Hank Paulson’s bad bank for toxic assets? Asnwer: Instead of a bad bank we opted for accounting rule changes. The toxic assets are still here…..still waiting.
Answer: Edward J. DeMarco, director of FHFA and his (Republican) refusal to do Mortgage Principal Write Down.
DeMarco is Republican appointee. He has refused to Mortgage Principal reductions with losses absorbed by Fannie & Freddie (i.e. the taxpayer).
Guarantee: When Obama wins, DeMarco is gone….fired….and an Obama apointment will replace him. And you are going to pay for your neighbors’ mortgage pincipal write-down through Fannie & Freddie losses.
Paul Krugman’s rant is instructive:
https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/31/fire-ed-demarco/My bet: Not a word of this will be mentioned in the debates.
Ilargi — This article = A thing of beauty, or as Soros noted via the Euro: A “fantastic object”
It zigs and it zags and it simultaneously captures the brilliance and the insanity of the moment. Irony squared and wrapped back on itself. Kudos, maestro.
The gradually disappearing pension = Greenpeace cubed
Angela Merkel will go down in history as one of the great environmentalists.
There’s too much demand. How would you propose we reduce it, if not through the elimination of future consumption via bank handouts?
A single Barclay’s executive and his golden parachute can do only a finite amount of environmental damage (he can only eat so much steak and fly only so many miles). But 1000 pensioners with imagined wealth….now that’s a lot of steak and a lot of trips to Tahiti. Too much, in fact.
One way or another, we all need to put up with less. The Euro straightjacket is necessary.
Steve B said:
Ilargi refers to wealth, not cash, so I suspect he’s not talking about all of that wealth being liquid.
I’m pretty sure he is talking about liquid wealth. But our differing interpretations of his statement reveal why it’s important to use careful, precise language, and to explain one’s ideas.
It’s not useful to simply throw out a number, like $1 million (bare minimum), without explaining how you arrived at it.
From my viewpoint, using simple division discussed in previous posts, this $1 million figure is a very high approximation of necessary liquid wealth for a 10-20 year time frame. Of course, it depends on one’s spending patterns. But if one uses average annual household spending for 2011 ~ $50K /year, then $1 million is simply too high (by a long shot certainly over a 10 year time frame). I might be missing something that Ilargi is thinking about or considering. But, without an explanation, there’s no way to know.
I don’t think it’s that hard to show that
$100,000 / year for 10 years or
$50,000 / year for 20 yearsis overshooting what’s needed.
Why would you need $100,000 per year?
Why would you need $50,000 per year?What are your expenditure assumptions that would give rise to those sorts of yearly budget figures?
Ilargi said:
My position, our position, often stated, is that the depression will be so severe that anyone who presently owns less than $1 million (complete ballpark number, but certainly no less that that) in real wealth (not stocks, pensions, real estate etc.), will have no use for gold.
It would be useful if you explained, even in a rough sense, how you’re arriving at the $1 million ballpark figure.
Ilargi, you have been more than willing to talk about the movements of the markets (yes, the S&P) as long as it moved in the direction you thought it should move.
You’ve quoted the downward movement of bank stocks or overall markets countless times.
But when they move up? We get silence or anger.
If you don’t want to talk about the S&P or the markets, then fine. If you do, that’s fine too.
The trouble is your emotional and analytical uni-directionality. If it’s down, you shout: See how I’m right (and I’ll be glad to offer citations). If it’s up: You yell at everybody for being so small-minded. This is bias of the worst kind.
The market is neither wrong nor right, it just is.
Thank you for taking the time to clarify your view on the length of deflation. Your position is somewhat more clear to me.
That being said:
2 statements have been made 100s of times by TAE previously:
1) short-term US Treasuries should probably be safe for the next couple of years
2) Deflation will continue until the bond markets are fractured, at which point, the market-imposed restrictions on actual money printing would no longer exist.
Therefore, If (as Stoneleigh as previously said countless times) short term US Treasuries are safe for a couple (i.e. 2) years or so, then that IMPLIES (in my mind) a 2-year (or so) time frame of intense deflation before fracturing of the US bond market and the lifting of restrictions on printing.
I emphasize the word implies, because I’ve always noted vagueness at this point in previous explanations. Maybe I’m alone in that. But I’ve read you folks closely, and I’ve never seen this issue clarified.
Now you, above, just argued for a different outcome (i.e. a longer term of deflationary unwind).
To use your exact language:
“The deflating of the by far largest credit bubble in history will take a long time, that’s not rocket science. And you still use 1-2 years as an option ….”.So do you think US Treasuries are therefore safe for longer than 2 years? If no, then why not? That core piece of practical reader advice, and the associated explanation, is missing from your statement above. If deflation (or deleveraging as you mention above) is likely to last signficantly longer than 1-2 years, then why wouldn’t holding US Treasuries be safe for longer time horizons than 2 years?
It comes down to an issue of how long you expect core bond markets to last (2 years or 20 years). This has nothing to do with gambling and everything to do with capital preservation.
I assume (and I emphasize ASSUME).
that you’re saying…..Deflation (deleveraging) will last a long time (longer than 1-2 years) and the economic damage will be so significant that there’s likely not going to be much stuff left to buy after a few years due to lack of new production. (the initial material glut caused by an initial sharp fall in demand will have, at that point, been burned away by conflict or gradual use).That’s fine, and I get that. If I’m assuming your explanation correctly. But that’s different than saying US Treasuries are only safe for a couple of years or so.
——————————————————
Here’s an easy way to resolve the confusion:
If US Treasuries are only safe for another couple of years, then why is that?
Is it because:
#1) The US bond market is likely broken and money printing has begun by that point
OR,
#2) because there won’t be much stuff left to buy at that point, after all the economic/societal damage is done, so holding liquid Treasuries would no longer be a prudent store of value.Earlier, I commented:
If you look through the archives, you’d be amazed the number of small market dips over the last 3 years that led her to warn of imminent market collapse.
It’s pretty much like clockwork.
Steve B requested……..And Ilargi (referring to me) responded
Examples/links would help to evaluate the data,
They always fail him/her.————-
JULY 1, 2010 1:02 PM
Stoneleigh said…
“The financial markets are leading the way lower, and the real economy will follow. I think we’re likely to see a market cascade event at some point this year.”My comment: Some historical context
S&P 500 = 1022.
On July 1, 2010 when Stoneleigh made this comment, The S&P500 had fallen ~18% over the previous 1.5 months. July 1, 2010, in fact, marked the low point for the market for all of 2010. The market rallied for the rest of the year and ended 20% higher.
———————————————————-WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 10, 2011
Stoneleigh said…
“The rally of the past two and a half years continued longer than we had anticipated, but on balance of probabilities it is now over, and we are entering the next phase of the credit crunch……With the dramatic end to the rally (and a loss of over $7.8 trillion in mere days) comes the end of the complacency it engendered. Fear is in the ascendancy once again”My comment: Some historical context
S&P 500 = 1180
On August 10, 2011, when Stoneleigh made this comment, the S&P500 had fallen ~ 12% over the previous 2 weeks. August 10, 2011, in fact, was very close to the low for the year. Within 1 week from this comment, the market began to rally for the rest of the year and ended the year 6% higher. The rally extended further into 2012 and reached a new nominal high on March 8th 2012 (20% higher).
——————————————————-MONDAY, JUNE 18, 2012 9:16 PM
Stoneleigh said…
“The ending of extend-and-pretend is ushering in a new era of fear and uncertainty which is rapidly evolving into the next phase of the on-going credit crunch.”My comment: Some historical context
S&P 500 ~ 1340
On June 18, 2012, when Stoneleigh made this comment, the S&P 500 had fallen ~5% over the previous 3 months from its temporary nominal high in March 2012. Since making that comment, the market has rallied ~9% to reach a new post-financial crisis nominal high (S&P 500 = 1472).
———————————————————–WEDNESDAY, JULY 18, 2012 3:18 PM
Stoneleigh said…
“I have no reason whatsoever to change my view of reality. Nothing I said hinges on the specifics of timing.”TAE:
Do you think deflation lasts another 2 years or another 20 years?Stoneleigh has said at various times mentioned: 1-2 years until the US Bond Market cracks (shorter times for European periphery and core).
Ilargi has mentioned recently 10-15-20 year time horizons until gold would be useful. That seems to imply a 10-15-20 year deflationary period.
These distinctions matter: If 2 years, then I begin to transition to hard goods in another 1.5 years. If deflation lasts 20 years, then I begin to transition to hard goods in another 15 years. 1.5 years vs. 15 years.
If you don’t know and/or don’t care — then please say so.
Ilargi said:
A really deep recession, the one we say is coming means that most people who hold gold will be forced to sell it, to pay off debt, buy essentials etc. It means you would need to be rich, $1 million bare minimum, to sit on your gold for 10-15-20 years without having to touch it.
$1 million for 10 years = $100,000/year budget
$1 million for 20 years = $50,000/year budgetI live in Silicon Valley, arguably one of the most expensive areas in the United States, and my household (consisting of 2 people, myself included) spends about $55,000/year. And looking at our expenses, I see plenty of fat we could trim if we chose to do so.
In the deflationary scenario that you’ve been describing at TAE, $1 million “bare minimum” for 10 years seems like a pretty high number.
It is even, arguably, high for 20 years.How did you arrive at that number?
What expenses are you imagining in a deflationary scenario that would require a yearly household budget of $50,000-$100,0000?Also, in the past, when asked about the duration of deflationary crash, Stoneleigh has often said that it lasts until the sovereign bond markets fracture. And she has often indicated that one is reasonably safe in US Treasuries for another ~2 years post initiation of the crash (hence the emphasis on short duration, i.e. 3-month Treasuries). This advice implies a timeline of intense deflation for ~2 years before the US Treasury Market is broken and the restrictions on money printing are lifted.
How did you go from ~2 years to 10-15-20 years?
Is Stoneleigh in agreement with you on this point?
Are you basically saying: Deflation could last 2 years or 20 years before the US Treasury Market is broken, we (TAE) are really not sure which one? Or, we don’t really care, that’s not our focus. Your mentioning 10-20 years does seem to imply a timeline.
Either way, a difference of 2 years of deflation vs. 20 years of deflation does seem rather relevant to the planning of the average Joe on the street. Because, if you’re budgeting for one outcome vs. the other, a 10-fold variation is pretty large.Hungary’s Problem: Its borders
In Central and Eastern Europe: Look at the state defined pretty clearly by the following mountain ranges: Western border = Alps; North, East and Southeastern border = Carpathian Mountains; Southwestern border = Dinaric Alps
What nation’s boundaries are defined by those mountains?
Currently no single state. It currently encompasses Eastern Austria, Southern Slovakia, All of modern Hungary, Western Romania (notably Transylvania), Northern Serbia, as well as Eastern Bosnia and Croatia.
But if we look historically, one can see a pretty clear outline of the Austrian and Austro-Hungarian Empire (from ~ 1800-1918).
If we look further back in history, we see the border of the Kingdom of Hungary which existed with variations for ~ 800 years (~1000 AD – 1800 AD).
——————————Eventually, I suspect that lingering tensions between Hungary and Romania will re-emerge. Northwestern Romania (~ Transylvania as defined by the Carpathian Mountains) has significant Hungarian ethnic, and cultural ties.
Small Country = Colony
Throughout Eastern Europe, one country after another is either being pulled into the EU/IMF orbit or drawn back into the Russian orbit.
Serbia is a dramatic example.
IMF/EU meetings on day 1
Private meetings with Putin on day 2.At the present time, advantage Putin.
It seems inevitable — as though these nation states are always destined to be colonies to someone.
Why: Geography. They don’t have the diversity of soil, mineral, petroleum deposits and navigatable river valleys, and/or deep water ocean ports to ever enable lasting economic independence. They will forever be independent mostly in name only in good times — and a province within a rising power during other times.
What about Belarus?
Many of the things you’re praising about Hungary: Relatively recent Resistance to onerous demands of IMF etc.
All that and more could be said for Belarus as well. It resisted such overtures ever since breaking away from the Soviet Union ~ 20 years ago.
In the end, it couldn’t go it alone (see the Russian bailout last year when the financial system was on the verge of collapse).
And from what i’ve read…..life in Belarus has been far from rosy.
The experience of Belarus suggests to me that refusing outside “support”, attempting to forge ahead on one’s own, is unlikely to produce a desirable outcome. Society still has to face too many wants and not enough haves. And that inevitably produces the repression that is so abundant in Belarus, with its red and black prison system — and a President who never loses elections.
Re: Fluoride
It sounds to me like an international conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids.
Gave up on what?
Gave up on her ability to impartially report and evaluate data. It’s possible to simultaneously have the big picture right but the data wrong. It often stems from wanting a certain result too much. It’s a common source of fraudulent basic science.
See the excellent recent review on the subject in the Guardian:
https://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/sep/13/scientific-research-fraud-bad-practice?newsfeed=trueWhat’s your objective in sticking around?
Morbid Curiosity:
According to Aristotle, in his Poetics we even “enjoy contemplating the most precise images of things whose sight is painful to us.” (This aspect of our nature is often referred to as the ‘Car Crash Syndrome’ or ‘Trainwreck Syndrome’, derived from the notorious supposed inability of passersby to ignore such accidents.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curiosity#Morbid_curiosityWhen a Central bank poofs! more money into existence, all money loses value since there is more money to buy the same quantity of goods and services. Money losing value is called price inflation which, since 1971, has occurred continuously.
I think you’re at the wrong blog for that argument.
Does Stoneleigh still write for this blog? …seems like not very much anymore.
She tends to write when the stock market has been falling for a while.
And she tends not to write when it’s rising.If you look through the archives, you’d be amazed the number of small market dips over the last 3 years that led her to warn of imminent market collapse.
It’s pretty much like clockwork.
As of July 2012, she refused to acknowledge that the markets had surpassed their Spring 2011 levels. I pretty much gave up at that point.
Bernanke is willing to throw in another trillion or so – or two- dollars in taxpayer money
How does Bernanke buying private MBS equate to stealing taxpayer money?
I don’t see the connection.
MBS are not Treasury Securities.I’ve never once heard of taxpayer bailout for a central bank.
Can someone cite any example from anywhere in the world where taxpayer money was appropriate by legislators to prevent a central bank failure?
Is there such a thing as a Central Bank Run?
Global Coin Hoarding: A Silent Global Bank Run
Reasons:
1) Historically high copper, zinc, nickel, aluminum prices have created opportunities for coin arbitrage all over the world. Coin Arbitrage = exploiting difference between metal value of coin and nominal (face value) of coin. For many small denomination coins around the world, the metal value premium is significant (200-300-400%). This is especially true in a world where the dollar is gaining value relative to local-national currencies (thereby amplifying the face value to metal value mismatch).
2) A History of Currency Devaluation has led consumers to hoard any source of metal as a hedge in uncertain times.
Examples:
India: Rupee coin shortages
https://india.nydailynews.com/newsarticle/50324785f7dfe0345e000002/coin-shortage-makes-everyday-life-difficult-in-west-bengalhttps://www.business-standard.com/india/news/rbi-move-triggers-coin-shortage/476066/
Phillipines: Parliament considering law to outlaw coin hoarding
https://ph.news.yahoo.com/coin-collecting-soon-a-crime-.htmlhttps://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=584057&publicationSubCategoryId=108
Argentina: Chronic coin shortages and retail shop owners refuse to make change (the memory of the 2001 peso devaluation lingers)
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2010/0315/Change-needed-as-Argentina-coin-shortage-growshttps://panglott.blogspot.com/2010/09/coin-hoarding-greshams-law-and-base.html
Indonesia: Due to the low value and general shortage of small denomination coins (below 100 rupiah), it is common to receive sweets in lieu of the last few rupiah of change in supermarkets and stores
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coins_of_the_RupiahBelarus: Has never issued coins since independence from the Soviet Union (the only former Soviet state to rely entirely on paper currency). Rationale — chronic inflation and frequent sudden currency devaluations have rendered the issuing of metal coin currency economically impracticle. A 2009 proposal to reintroduce coins has not been pursued.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarusian_ruble#Coins
—————————Government Responses:
1) Discontinuing small valuation coins
2) Changing coin composition to steel (steel price is ~ 2.5% the price of copper)
3) Cracking down on black market coin hoarding operationsAsh and Matt Savinar
Your arc of emotional development closely traces Matt Savinar’s spiritual evolution. For you, Ash, it’s Judeo Christianity. For Savinar, it was Astrology
For those who don’t know him: Matt Savinar is, like Ash, a young lawyer who withdrew from his professional training to examine peak oil and societal collapse.
Savinar built and maintained the highly popular LATOC forum (life-after-the-oil-crash) from 2005-2010. His writings on peak oil were highlighted in congressional testimony.
Then, sometime around late 2010, he had an emotional breakdown. He abruptly shut-down LATOC (much to the dismay of the users, several thousand at that point) he shut down the website and shifted all of his time and energy to Astrology.
A link to Matt Savinar at his LATOC peak in 2006 (prior to breakdown) discussing the writing of Jay Hanson:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qW8-WbYJnwIA link to angry discussions from LATOC readers following the abrupt termination of LATOC forum:
https://www.theoilage.com/what-happened-to-matt-savinar-t1758.html
https://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1251233/pg1Matt Savinar’s recent writings on Astrology:
https://northbayastrology.com/?author=110th example: Brazil
The Brazilian 1 cent (0.01 Real) ~ 0.5 US cent (0.5 US penny)
1994-1997 = steel
1998-2005 = steel with brass plating
2006-present = coin discontinuedThe Brazilian 10 cent (0.10 Real) ~ 5.0 US cent (US nickel)
1994-1997 = steel
1998-present = steel with brass plating
———-
Ref:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_real#Coins9th Example: Japan
The Japanese metal composition is noteworthy for its stable metal composition in recent time (past ~ 50 years)
1 Yen ~ 1 US cent
1870-1897 = silver
1898-1945 = cupro-nickel
1946-1954 = brass
1955-present = 100% aluminum5 Yen ~ 5 US cent
1959-present = 60-70% copper, 30-40% zinc
——–
Ref:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_yen#Effect_of_the_Plaza_Accord8th Example: Switzerland
The 1 Rappen coin (0.01 Swiss Franc) was ~ equivalent to US 1 cent (penny)
history-2006 = Cupro-Nickel [500% premium to face value demanded for most users]
2007-present = currency discontinued5 Rappen coin (0.05 Swiss Franc) ~ equivalent to US 5 cent
history-1980 = Cupro-Nickel
1981-present = Aluminum-Copper alloy
————————————-
Ref:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_franc#Coins7th Example: Euro Zone
The Euro 1 cent and 5 cent coins are ~ equivalent to US 1 cent and 5 cents
1 Cent (0.01 Euro) ~ 1 US Penny
1999-Present = Steel (with thin copper coating)5 Cent (0.05 Euro) ~ 5 US Cents
1999-Present = Steel (with thin copper coating)
——–
Refs:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1_cent_euro_coins
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_cent_euro_coins6th Example: Mexico
The Mexican 50 centavo (0.5 Mexican Peso) = roughly equal to US 4 cents
1992-2008 = 92% copper, 6% aluminum, 2% nickel
2009-present = Steel
————
Ref.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_peso#Coins
