Debt Rattle February 10 2020


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    Arnold Genthe 17th century Iglesia el Carmen, Antigua, Guatemala 1915   • Japan: 60 More Coronavirus Infections On Diamond Princess Cruise Ship (
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle February 10 2020]

    V. Arnold

    The more that time passes; I’m thinking this is defintely the One!
    Precisely because everyone seems to think it isn’t!
    Quarentines are being portrayed as a government ploy to capture us.
    Emprison us and take away all our freedoms.
    How about that?
    All attempts to prevent the spread are portrayed as a totalitarian plot!
    How about that?
    Anybody following this must be aware the virus is all over the spectrum…
    The bottom line, IMO is, none of the “experts” has a clue at this point…
    This is a new game in virology and those in charge had better understand their limitations and act accordingly; the emerging picture ain’t pretty.
    …and it’s far, far from over, IMO…

    Dr. D

    Although several issues, it causes a cytokine storm of immune response that overwhelms the lungs and fills them with fluid. (that having a strong immune system was the danger, not help, is similar to Spanish Flu). People can get it and recover if that impact is contained to normal flu/pneumonia levels, but I’m not a (medical)doctor, just literate and read words good too. This is the HIV code and why it’s a joke that it’s not a bioweapon; and I don’t know why China would try to deny it. Why not say the U.S./CIA did it? That’s what everyone else does, because it usually is. Why would a denial matter? …Only if they were – or THOUGHT they were – responsible. The three(?) gene inserts weren’t rocket science and well-covered. So you’re saying bats got a pangolin virus and then ate HIV? Sure, sure they did. In a U.S./Canadian biolab, compromised by a guy at Harvard they just arrested, and a doctor that was just accidentally killed in Africa. Totally coincidental, as always.

    “Both the Steele dossier and the black ledger are fabricated files.”

    That is somewhat new. However, nobody cares. It just rolls how it rolls. Can we return to world of facts and logic again? I miss it.

    Approval rating = trouble.

    You ain’t seen hard times or trouble. ‘Til the black vote moves out. ‘Til core-left Chris Matthews sounds like Alex Jones and talking on national T.V. about how Socialists are historical mass-murders. ‘Til they openly Boo “Cheatin’ Wall Street Pete” in NH. ‘Til radical feminists have deserted to the GOP over transgender issues. ‘Til Biden makes fun of rural America in national ads, then calls DNC voters some combination of “lying dog-faced pony soldier” “go vote for somebody else.” Don’t want to get out of hand here, but I think I don’t need to add much at this point except watch sadly. Soon enough I’ll probably have to pivot and contain the right from overreach as the world turns and the pendulum swings. Ain’t like the government right cares about law or limited government either.

    John Day
    This interview with a physician who was instrumental in getting authorities and his hospital to grapple with the Wuhan coronavirus is good and informative. He seems open and factual.
    Peng: The biggest assault the virus launches is on a patient’s immune system. It causes a fall in the count of lymphocytes, the damage in the lungs and shortness of breath. Many serious patients died of choking. Others died of the failure of multiple organs following complications in their organs resulting from a collapse of the immune system.

    Back to that gap. Wuhan coronavirus may have evolved in a lab. But wait, look here!
    Chinese scientists claimed they may have found the animal source of the outbreak, based on genetic analysis, though their results have yet to be published. The coronavirus is thought to have originated in bats but passed through an intermediate host before infecting humans. The researchers have identified a coronavirus in pangolins that is 99% similar to the one causing the current outbreak.
    The only scaly mammal, the long-snouted, ant-eating pangolin is endangered but often hunted for meat or use in Chinese medicine.

    North Korea’s coronavirus border shutdown: “Nobody is to come into contact with Chinese people”
    ​North Korea is as serious as a heart attack about this, and they really need Chinese stuff and revenues, but it’s all blocked. Even the smugglers are docking their boats and leaving them sit.​ Wartime footing…​


    The symptoms look heavy John. Dying of choking is not nothing.

    I’ll put an asterisk behind the pangolin until someone explains how they get infected by bats.

    North Korea realizes how vulnerable it is to a serious infection.


    9 months
    I’ll let all the expert expand on my observations and conclusions.
    In few words ….
    When you lock down millions of young sexually active man and women together then you should expect a rash of births to occur in 9 months.
    There will be more births then the total number of death from the coronavirus.


    Yes Dr D, strange that the Chinese aren’t blaming the CIA. Equally strange that none of the world intelligence agencies, whether US, Israeli or Bolivian, haven’t provided much of anything concerning number of cases, deaths, whatever. It’s not that hard to find out.
    So the media is left with speculation which causes problems due to that Occam’ razor thingy.
    Eventually, more information will be revealed. In the mean time, we can be assured that the American christian evangelical right will declare that this is really really the end times and this is the time to panic buy stocks.

    Trump’s $4.8T budget would increase debt, cut safety net
    By Justin Sink and Erik Wasson –
    February 10, 2020 10:39 am
    The administration isn’t proposing a special allocation of funds to combat the novel coronavirus, the official said. The virus has led to more than 800 deaths worldwide and sparked quarantines of travelers coming from China, where the outbreak started. Proposed funding for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will be cut 10%, but the budget leaves untouched the $4 billion allocated for its work on infectious diseases.


    Great link – old but provides assessment of possible risk related to virulent viruses and approaches to use to protect oneself.

    It seems unfortunate to me that there is seemingly a parallel universe of herbal/alternative health options that exist on the other side of a glass wall that just about no one (including those trained in conventional medicine) knows about. The frustrating part is that people often point to a lack of data on effectiveness of alternatives, when there are so many clear gaps in the effectiveness of conventional interventions and yet few challenge their use.


    I expect that the USA will absorb the coronavirus 2% death rate and will not impose any lockdown or shut down of businesses.
    US flu still elevated but dropping; deaths as high as 57,000
    Apr 19, 2019
    In its latest estimates on flu impact today, the CDC said the disease has sickened from 36 million to 41.3 million people this season through Apr 13, of whom 16.7 million to 19.4 million sought medical care. In addition, the disease has hospitalized 502,000 to 610,000 patients and killed 34,400 to 57,300.

    John Day

    I consider the endangered Pangolin as intermediate pandemic virus host, accidentally infecting humans, to be whimsical.
    Also, the pangolin picture is cute. Sometimes I attempt subtle humor. This was like that.


    measurement of air pollution
    Yes, there is less since the beginning of the year.
    Why is lower than from the 6 year average????


    USA self-quarantine
    Press Briefing by Members of the President’s Coronavirus Task Force
    Issued on: January 31, 2020
    Q To follow up on John, what does self-quarantine look like for the people who are self-quarantining? How do you enforce that? What are the mechanisms surrounding that?
    And if you could you also speak to — you just described this as sort of an incremental step, I believe. This is obviously significant: the quarantine of citizens in this country.
    What is your message to Americans who are watching this on the news, who are seeing this, who are feeling really alarmed by the steps that this administration is taking and by the spread of coronavirus in general? They hear you say the risk is low, but then they see this action being taken, and I think some people might be freaked out by that.
    SECRETARY AZAR: I hope not. I hope that people will see that their government is taking responsible steps to protect them. These are — these are preventive steps. The risk is low in the United States. The risk is low of transmissibility, the risk of contracting the disease is low, but our job is to keep that risk low, as much as we can, by taking appropriate preventative steps.
    So that’s — that’s the approach we’re taking.
    Let me ask Dr. Redfield if he can talk a bit about — we — this is — we do this type of quarantine and self-isolation work basically every day, working very closely — I want to stress something that we’ve not mentioned enough — working very closely with our state and local public health partners. They’re — just as we do with emergency response, we serve as a backup and expertise and a border-type force, but the state and local authorities are the backbone of our public health infrastructure and we work with them to daily to help with our quarantine stations and activities.
    So, Dr. Redfield, could you talk a bit about self-isolation?
    DR. REDFIELD: Thank you, Mr. Secretary. Clearly, we’ve stratified the risk groups here, as it was already alluded to, from Hubei Province, where there really is aggressive transmission. Those individuals are going to come and be required to have 14 days of — up to 14 days of (inaudible) transmission.
    Then, there’s a large category of individuals coming back to China. As we stand here today, over half of the reported cases in China now are not in Hubei, but when you look at their history it’s — they got infected — probably over 80, 85 percent of them got infected from Hubei.
    Those individuals will then be actively screened when they come into one of the seven airports, for significant risk, as well as any evidence of any symptoms. In the absence of any reason to advance them into a clinical evaluation at that port of entry, they will be allowed to complete their travel back to their home, where they then will be monitored by the local health departments in a self-monitoring situation their home.


    Where is the truth

    (CNN)On Friday morning, President Trump tweeted about his phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the response to the coronavirus outbreak.
    Trump praised Xi as “strong, sharp and powerfully focused” on containing the virus, and added that he thinks Xi will be successful, “especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone.”

    John Day

    @ Zerosum
    Self isolation of 1/31/2020 is already history.
    These people are in military isolation at Lackland AFB in San Antonio, and not voluntarily.

    US quarantine sites seem to be military bases. Lackland in San Antonio gets a bunch of people who were pulled out of China with the clothes on their backs and now get to sit real still for at least 2 weeks while undergoing studies, and probably a lot of debriefing, with military rigor.
    Austin news yesterday had a family of 6 getting sent to be the quarantine at Lackland.


    @ John Day

    Someone lied
    The San Antonio Fire Department is supporting CDC operations at Joint Base San Antonio during the evacuee quarantine process. If there is a need to transport, the appropriate medical response that protects both our first responders and the patient will be implemented. At no time will this support negatively affect the daily operations of the SAFD. Any and all expenses incurred by the SAFD will be fully reimbursed by the Federal Government.

    “We are very certain that we can keep the quarantined people here safe and that we can contain the coronavirus if it is found in any of them,” McQuiston said.
    As of Friday night, U.S. public health officials have not released the names of hospitals where patients could possibly be taken, if they have any symptoms.
    But do say hospitals across the u.S. Are preparing for possible coronavirus cases


    Except in fictional stories, the closest pandemic to the Wuhan Coronavirus is the Spanish Flu. It killed my Great Grandfather in a hotel room in St. Joseph, Mo. We’ve had a century of “progress” to game the future. But corporate media is strangely silent. I think it is because to have an effective quarantine it must follow China’s example. The West can’t. Government has been flushed down the toilet. President Donald Trump says heat in April will kill the virus. That is hope not planning.

    Face masks, sheltering in place, avoiding human contact and washing hands constantly is all a person can do, just like in 1918, until a corporation develops its jackpot billion-dollar vaccine. Until then, Deplorables will have work to make money for supplies and rent until quarantined at home. At a 3% death rate, and with everyone on their own; 9,930,000 Americans will die. A hospital visit even with insurance will cost thousands. The poor and homeless will suffocate to death alone or with their families without medical care. Going shopping for food risks death. If the pandemic lasts longer than a couple of months and becomes more deadly, the economy will collapse without workers. The professional class will hold up in gated communities without guards or deliveries. Managing hell by telecommuting as long as the electricity stays on.


    3% 9,930,000 Americans will die
    and that’s only from the coronavirus. Plus from the regular flue of 34,400 to 57,300.
    More middle class will die by being bankrupted by the med. system, bankers, and overdosing to try to go back to Lalaland that they knew, etc

    V. Arnold

    President Donald Trump says heat in April will kill the virus. That is hope not planning.

    Trump is dangerously full of bullshit; if heat killed the virus then we here in the tropics would be safe.
    We’re not!!! As I have said before: Trump is a pig! A dangerous pig!
    Usians are delusional; psychotically delusional…reality has escaped them completely…


    Newer studies suggest the virus can survive 9 days on surfaces

    from that article

    The evaluated studies, which focus on the pathogens Sars coronavirus and Mers coronavirus, showed, for example, that <b>the viruses can persist on surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days.</b> On average, they survive between four and five days. <b>”Low temperature and high air humidity further increase their lifespan,”</b> points out Kampf.

    if i’m reading that correctly, nine days is not the upper limit if ‘low temps / high humidity’ are present. as, say, one would find on a freight vessel or cruise ship during the wintertime.

    also, re: trump’s ‘april high heat’ – both sars and mers were very active in may/june/july.

    V. Arnold

    The fatalities soared after hardest-hit Hubei province — the epicentre of the outbreak — reported another 103 deaths on Tuesday, the highest single-day toll since the virus emerged.
    Bangkok Post

    Also from the post: Thailand will not allow a cruise ship from Japan to let passengers disembark at the Laem Chabang port, Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said on Tuesday.

    The Chinese curse is in force:

    May you live in interesting times.


    This is what stupid looks like:

    Hong Kong Supply Chain breaks at Beginning Link and End Link

    “Usians are delusional; psychotically delusional…reality has escaped them completely…”

    I want to discount the above with the usual remarks about hyperbole, etc., but sadly, the above is literally true, even the last 5 words. Reality? What is reality? I’ll say that, regarding human civilization/society, reality is what grows from the ground, flows in rivers, and falls from the sky, things modern usians experience at a Disneyland wii fii VR distance.

    Take Me Back

    V. Arnold

    I want to discount the above with the usual remarks about hyperbole, etc., but sadly, the above is literally true, even the last 5 words.

    As a fellow Usian; it pains me greatly to have to say; but, it’s based on almost 20 years of observation, from 14,000 kilometers away, here in Asia.
    Any student of genuine history would see a similar picture and its unavoidable conclusions…
    The genuine danger of this state is incalculable…


    As we know, pretty much for sure, that China is fudging the nCoV-2019 numbers I decided to do the math excluding most of China.

    All others cases excluding China but including Hong Kong

    Date Conf Ratio Deaths Recovered

    21/1 7
    22/1 11 1.57
    23/1 17 1.54 Small sample outliers. Ignore in AVG
    24/1 24 1.41
    25/1 27 1.12
    26/1 36 1.33 3
    27/1 42 {44} 1.16
    28/1 44 {55} 1.05 {1.25} 6
    29/1 58 {56} 1.32 {1.02}
    30/1 74 {68} 1.28 {1.21}
    31/1 92 {81} 1.24 {1.19}
    1/2 109 {95} 1.18 {1.17} 9
    2/2 118 {110} 1.08 {1.16} 1
    3/2 120 {128) 1.10 {1.16}
    4/2 140 {149} 1.16 {1.16} 2
    5/2 154 {173} 1.10 {1.16)
    6/2 162 {201} 1.06 {1.16} 10
    7/2 173 (234) 1.07 {1.16} 13
    8/2 198 (259) 1.14 {1.11} 22
    9/2 205 (269) 1.04 (1.04) 25
    10/2 227 (362) 1.11 (1.35) 28

    1.12 AV = 12% increase per day. 1.16 AV = 16% per day with Diamond Princess.

    {…} With Diamond Princess backward estimates of confirmed cases.
    (…) With Diamond Princess Confirmed

    Take a smaller subset Thailand/Japan/South Korea:
    21 3
    22 5 1.67
    23 6 1.2 Small Sample outliers. Ignore in AVG
    24 9 1.5
    25 11 1.22
    26 15 1.36
    27 16 1.07
    28 25 1.56
    29 29 1.16
    30 29 1.0
    31 45 1.55
    1 48 1.07
    2 54 1.12
    3 54 1.0
    4 63 1.17
    5 83 1.32
    6 83 1.0
    7 86 1.04
    8 82 0.95
    9 85 1.04
    10 85 1.0

    15% Increase in infections per day.
    15 percent per day is doubling about every 5 days which is consistent with early observations.
    That is 64 times the infections every month.

    SARS was identified Nov 2002 Peaked in Late April 2003 and changed from exponential to linear progression at that time.
    SARS stopped increasing in Late May 2003 and began to fade from memory. A 6 months active pandemic corona-virus duration.

    We could be in a spot of bother, no Olympics 2020.

    At the moment (11th Feb 2020 China Time / A.W.S.T time) The Diamond Princess suggests that about 6% of any population is susceptible to infection.
    Thus an estimate for total global susceptibility could be 420 million.

    Lets play with Math with Daily ratio increase 1.15 from 1 February when Total (Including China) was approx stated at 15,000.

    There could be;
    100,000 infected by 15th of Feb
    500,000 by 27th Feb.
    1 million by 3rd March.
    10 million by 19th March.
    100 million by 4th April.
    420 million by 24th April.

    Let’s hope that arithmetic is one of those pseudo-science things that has no basis in reality.

    V. Arnold

    As we know, pretty much for sure, that China is fudging the nCoV-2019 numbers I decided to do the math excluding most of China.

    Well, thanks for the math. Utterly useless to a layman like myself.
    It would be useful to know your conclusions; if available…


    Too early to draw conclusions. I think the last 2 paragraphs are an absolute worst case scenario. I’ll watch the numbers and update if I come up with any conclusions from the math, even though that may still be “utterly useless”. I’m a bit of a prepper and intend to go on a long photography trip into the middle of nowhere in my camper-van if the numbers get bad.

    I suspect it will not get much of a hold outside of cool wet countries populated by mostly Asian peoples.

    Chinas productivity going offline is the main global issue at the moment.

    It was just a thought exercise really. Dropped it here as this is the only blog in the world that I have a commenting account for.

    All the best.

    V. Arnold


    Appreciate the feed-back; the rest; I understand…
    We’ll see…

    John Day

    Thanks Glennjeff for the scenario run.
    There are many.
    Uncertainty bids us prepare overall, not merely for infection, for which each of us has some odds of living:dying.


    Thanks Glennjeff.

    ” The Diamond Princess suggests that about 6% of any population is susceptible to infection.
    Thus an estimate for total global susceptibility could be 420 million.”

    I have not heard what is happening to the infected that have been removed from the Diamond Princess.
    I’m going to keep watching what happens to this “petri dish”

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