Debt Rattle June 29 2026
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Ivan Aivazovsky Palace rains in Venice by moonlight 1878 • Iranian Media Calls for Atomic Bombs as Official Says ‘We Are at War’ (Salgado) • How Crazy
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle June 29 2026]Why neo-Crassus desperately needs to cling to HIS deal, by Pepe Escobar – The Unz Review
History tells us that it was possible to design a war using Persian arrows specifically intended to destroy Crassus and the Roman legions.On this dark street, the sun is black
The winter life is coming back
On this dark street, it’s cold inside
There’s no retreat from time that diedCream, Deserted Cities of the Heart
One of my recent columns on How Iran engineered its multipolar breakthrough provoked some serious response by top old school U.S. Deep State intel operatives, now involved in global business. I was sent a consistent, detailed breakthrough about what they maintain is the main reason for President Trump to sign the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran, which he is frantically spinning as his (italics mine) deal.
As one of these sources bluntly put it, “the main point you are missing is that Trump was scared stiff by June 15 being only 60 days away from the final emptying of the world reserve oil supplies, leading to the complete destruction of Donald J. Trump. That is the only reason for his about face. If he waited much longer, he would by August 15 be so behind the eight ball that he would not be able to recover And that may happen anyway.”
The source was referring to a detailed risk assessment where the hard data points to mid-August 2026 as “the moment the U.S. must legally halt the emergency dumping. When that tap closes, the global oil supply deficit will instantly widen by millions of barrels per day, creating a world crisis.”
Even tough he may be acting now, nothing is secured for Trump. The sources comment that “first, he (Republicans) would lose the first week in November elections. Then the Democrats would impeach him. And then he would be destroyed by lawsuits, losing all his money.”
Way beyond the destiny awaiting the self-styled neo-Crassus, the sources mostly insist that “the 60-to-90-day runway we are currently sitting on is not just a timer on the physical oil in the ground; it is the remaining fuse on the largest credit bubble in human history.”
Which bring us, once again, to the Rosebud in this Orson Welles-sized epic: the Strait of Hormuz, which for all practical purposes remains virtually closed.
The sources are careful to remind those willing to listen that
“what we have now is a rebellion at the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of global oil goes through there, and Iran wants that power to protect itself. When it is cut off the price of oil according to Goldman Sachs will go to $700 a barrel. It does not today as the U.S. and allies are dumping their storage on the market to hold the price down. They have about 2.5 months supply to do this. Then everything explodes. You have here the rebellion of the slaves.”
So welcome to the current ultra high-stakes structural chess match – of course totally gamed by Tehran right before the start.
The “rebellion of the slaves”
The sources comment that “while rumors of oil at $700 a barrel are frequently utilized in high-level geopolitical posturing to emphasize the gravity of the bottleneck, the actual analytical forecasting coming out of the major investment banking desks is more measured, though still deeply alarming.”
Let’s start with Goldman Sachs: “In their official commodities research updates following the escalation, Goldman Sachs warned that a prolonged, total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could rapidly push Brent crude above $100 a barrel and realistically test the $150 mark.”
Crucially, the sources maintain that “a precise look at the operational data reveals that the system’s absolute breaking point – and the fuse on the derivatives bomb – will likely occur by mid-August 2026.”
Enter the interplay between the physical depletion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR); the true, practical limits of oil prices; and the terrifying, hidden two-quadrillion-dollar derivatives market. The sources analyse this interplay as a highly synchronized endgame.
Let’s summarize it. As of late May 2026, only a month ago, the SPR has been drained to 365.1 million barrels, “the lowest operational level in over 40 years.”
With the Strait of Hormuz virtually closed – including by the Trump blockade – the U.S. is currently drawing down an historic 1.41 million barrels a day (nearly 10 million barrels a week) to artificially suppress prices.
Then comes “the critical policy number to watch”. It is not “zero barrels”, but actually 243 million barrels. Why? Because the Department of Forever Wars has certified that drawing the reserve below 243 million barrels explicitly impairs the American capability to wage war.
Once again the sources refer to their analysis: at the current velocity of 1.41 million barrels a day, the U.S. would burn through its 122-million-barrel discretionary cushion in exactly 86 days.
In their risk assessment, the sources chose to point to 60 days – accounting for potential infrastructure failures or increased military consumption. That’s how we get to mid-August 2026 as the breaking point.
And that’s not all. The sources note that “prices could easily breach the historic 2008 and 2022 peaks if refined product shortages trigger cascading shutdowns across European and Asian industrial sectors. However, a multi-hundred-dollar figure like $700 is widely considered a theoretical maximum that would instantly destroy global demand and collapse the entire international financial architecture before it could ever be sustained.”
Once again: Tehran gamed all that to perfection. Call it the tollbooth or transit fees for any tanker wishing to pass through their Persian Gulf territorial waters; what matters is that Tehran de facto bypassed Western sanctions. The sources comment that “Washington’s declaration that this is ‘unacceptable’ has done little to stop global shipping firms from quietly paying the fees to avoid seizure.”
So when we have a scenario of the SPR being depleted compounded with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked, “prices will violently spike past the 2008 records, testing $150 to $200 a barrel.”
At that threshold, “the physical economy experiences immediate demand destruction. Airlines grounded, shipping networks halted, and industrial manufacturing ceased. The price cannot physically sustain $700 because the global economic machine using the oil will disintegrate at $200, causing consumption to drop to near zero.”
And here we come to the clincher: “The danger is not the price tag itself, but the fact that the price spike will trigger the structural collapse of the underlying debt infrastructure”.
Trump, Crassus, arrows and drones
Is the U.S. – and the global economy – out of the woods when it comes to a war that Trump himself green-lighted?
It depends on where the current elaborate MoU kabuki between Pakistan and Switzerland will lead. Oil is still not free flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz. And the SPR continues to be depleted.
Neo-Crassus – prone to apocalyptic vociferations and non-stop threats to bomb Iran – simply cannot afford to have the SPR running dry. Yet that’s the way things will go if Hormuz does not revert to total free flow sooner rather than later. And it’s Tehran that controls the flow, not War-a-Lago.
Either neo-Crassus contains himself, or he may even become responsible for a global crisis linked to widespread sovereign debt implosion.
Even brainwashed flocks of sheep across Western pastures are now becoming aware of how the mighty Roman Empire lost to the Parthians/Persians in the Battle of Carrhae in 53 B.C. Rome at the time marched towards Asia convinced that Parthia/Persia would collapse under the weight of their power.
Carrhae was textbook asymmetry – or Decentralized Mosaic, to quote Persian tactics in the early 21st century. The Parthian army was commanded by General Surena – the General Soleimani of those times – who instead of engaging in conventional battle (think Iraq in both Gulf Wars) used the Parthian cavalry to surround the Romans and unleash wave after wave of arrows, the drones of the time.
The Parthians never ran out of ammo, because camel caravans waiting behind the battlefield were delivering fresh arrows in no time. The barrage never stopped. The mighty Roman army lost their cohesion and was epically demoralized.
Crassus had assumed the Parthians would eventually run out of arrows and be forced into close combat. That did not happen. Crassus himself ended up being killed in the middle of a failed negotiation.
That serious strategic defeat shattered the myth of Roman invincibility – just like the 2026 war shattered for good all the myths around the greatest army in the history of the galaxies.
History tells us that it was possible to design a war using Persian arrows specifically intended to destroy Crassus and the Roman legions.
And in a mirror image, we just saw a war using Persian drones and a Decentralized Mosaic specifically intended to strangle the imperial armada led by a neo-Crassus openly running a low-brow extortion/protection racket and working on behalf of an organized crime syndicate linked to a death cult entity.
His sorry carcass will keep encumbering the world for a little longer. May he not destroy the global economy in the process.
https://www.unz.com/pescobar/why-neo-crassus-desperately-needs-to-cling-to-his-deal/
Russia hearing the European clamour for war, announces it is ready
Contact us: info@strategic-culture.suThe de-escalation framework that unfolded in the U.S.-Iran Lucerne talks largely stayed true to the original Iranian 10-point plan. Meanwhile, President Trump and Vice-President Vance deliberately muddy the waters, claiming that Iran has already agreed to IAEA inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities (a claim repeatedly denied by Iran): Vance announced that the IAEA could have begun inspections this week. No – – the ‘Framework’ only refers to the possible IAEA supervision of the dilution to the 60% enriched stockpile subject to a final agreement with the U.S. having been reached.
Trump, writing on social media, later falsely asserted: “Iran has fully and completely agreed to highest level Nuclear inspections long into the future”. In fact, the IAEA are only inspecting the joint Iran-Russia power station in Bushier at Russia’s request, because Russia wants to ensure compliance on its involvement. In other words, it is a Russian request to satisfy its own IAEA compliance commitment.
Trump then warned Iran that he may have to “finish the job [militarily]” — (if he doesn’t get a very good deal) — which, he says, would take “ about a week”, and adds that Iran will be required to use any unfrozen Iranian funds to be held in ESCROW accounts (accounts controlled by the U.S.) to buy “corn and soybeans for their people, because right now their people are very hungry — and they’re buying exclusively from us”.
So, it’s pretty clear what’s ahead — Trump is reverting to his New York real-estate mode of negotiations. In the Art of the Deal, his 1987 book, ghost written by Tony Schwartz, the text advises the use of “extreme and unpredictable demands to create anxiety and force concessions from rivals”.
Thus, we are back to the General Kellogg playbook – – Kellogg advised Trump that the only thing that works with Putin or the Iranians is pressure — and then still more pressure.
Familiar Trumpian tactics. Show a little initial flexibility to tease out adversaries in order to pull them into negotiations; subsequent false claims of Iranian concessions and extreme demands are then used to increase pressure on Iran (whilst Trump appears tough to the angry neocon constituency and to his ‘base’ back home).
This style of pressure may work for New York real-estate deals, but will be ineffective with both Iran and Russia.
Such threats will be counterproductive with Iran, and place the U.S. on a collision course. “The Islamabad understanding was not the result of pressure and coercion, but rather the result of the resistance and authority of the Iranian nation”, Mr Qalibaf, the chief Iranian negotiator, retorted.
In practical terms, as Will Schryver, a shrewd observer of the U.S. military, notes, Iran has pressure points “more numerous and capable than the U.S. can bring to bear on the battlefield” —
“In my view, [Schryver says], a powerful U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf region has become utterly untenable. They’re just trying to save face now. I do not believe, [he concludes] the U.S. military can mount even a 72-hour high-intensity operation at this point in time”.
“But I think they’ll try. Probably just Trump bluff, but it would not surprise me if they try to play one last card to gain the upper hand”. (Maybe after the midterms, and with the U.S. having rebuilt somewhat its munitions shortfall).
To which Iran likely will respond by closing the Strait of Hormuz again, and attacking, pari passu, regional (Gulf) infrastructure. Trump will be gaming the economy who first plays ‘Chicken’. A further military venture likely will only further erode American military standing.
Quite possibly, however, Trump may be prepared to cut his losses in Iran — the war anyway is a liability to his Midterm electoral calculus — by circling back to Ukraine and Russia. The Kiev Independent released a report yesterday, quoting a “senior Ukrainian official saying that Trump had privately given Zelensky the greenlight to act “more boldly” against Russia”.
Here we go again, roundabout time — “Trump says he doesn’t really believe Putin will do anything without pressure”, the Ukrainian official added.
Simplicius speculates:
“Trump has clearly been frustrated by his inability to settle any of the conflicts he had promised easily. And recently, on the heels of the Iranian memorandum saga, he even admitted that he would now be “turning his attention” back to Ukraine.
“As such, it’s plausible that Trump would have given secret encouragement to the Europeans to ‘shape the battlefield’ in order to “soften” Russia up ahead of whatever next Trump might have planned”.
If this is true (and it probably is), the Europeans are playing with matches and risk lighting a conflagration.
The E3 leaders, Starmer, Merz and Macron, met on 7 June with Zelensky to promise both unwavering support and — in the context of pledging further pressure on Russia —
“underlining the urgent need to scale up the production of interceptors; deep strike capabilities and anti-ballistic missile co-development — and further to support the future sustainability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces”.
In short, the Europeans intend to ratchet up deep strikes into Moscow and St Petersburg, which will likely kill and unsettle their inhabitants.
The E3 carefully planned how to stage-manage the upcoming G7 summit, the EU summit, with Zelensky showcased at both events, promising to increase the pressure on “President Putin to agree to an immediate and complete ceasefire, taking the current contact line for its start-point”. European leaders also pledged to co-ordinate ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara (7-8 July) to achieve increased pledges of military support for Ukraine.
The E3 states are explicitly gearing up with new missiles to strike deeper, and more destructively, into Russia. The British government, for example, has announced that —
“the UK project to develop low-cost advanced long-range strike weapons for Ukraine has reached a significant milestone, with three British-designed systems successfully flight tested. The ground-launched strike weapons reportedly are capable of hitting targets more than 500km distant, at a speed of 600 km/h – whilst carrying a 225 kg warhead”.
According to the Financial Times, Trump was “hugely impressed and enthusiastic” with Ukraine’s recent campaign of long-range strikes on targets deep inside Russia at last week’s G7 summit. At the summit, Trump also agreed to increase sanctions on Russian energy.
It is clear that the E3 had been plotting a major psy-op to convince Trump that Ukraine was not on the back-foot against Russia (as Trump may have been briefed); but rather had regained the front foot, and that the U.S. should support the European agenda to force a Russian capitulation agenda (ceasefire, borders unchanged, reparations paid by Russia and war-crimes trials for Russian officials indicted with crimes, etc).
These developments have brought two major developments out of Russia:
Firstly, senior Kremlin aides, notably Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s spokesman, have been saying over the past three days the ‘spirt’ of the Anchorage summit, and its concomitant understandings, “have effectively collapsed” — “The U.S. abandoned them”. Moscow no longer expects those commitments to be honoured and is focused solely on securing its own “victory” through military means.
Foreign Minister Lavrov went further, describing the Alaska meeting as an American “ploy” designed to buy time for Ukraine to rebuild and rearm its military — essentially likening them to the Minsk Accords that similarly were mounted as a deceit.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said:
“We also see Washington’s line moving closer to the most rabid anti-Russian policies pursued by the U.S.’s closest European allies – namely, the UK and France”.
This represents a huge strategic shift. Russia no longer seeks a relationship with Washington, though contact with DC will continue.
The second development stems from President Putin’s address at the St George’s Hall to military cadets on 23 June. Putin, in summary, told the young officers that the West manufactures a Russia threat, then accuses Russia of creating that very threat. This, said Putin, is a historically repeated pattern going back to 1941.
Putin implied that a threshold had now been crossed: He stated that whilst, until recently, NATO countries had limited themselves to supporting the Kiev regime to wage war on Russia, the West today is openly talking about preparing for a war against Russia, and is building up their military offensive budgets. German Chancellor Mertz has been quite vocal in this regard, Putin said.
Russia’s response, he said, is focused on modernising its nuclear triad and its Army, and strengthening the combat capability of the Aerospace Forces and the Navy. The explicit mention of the nuclear triad in direct proximity to the discussion of Western preparation for war against Russia was certainly a pointed message to Trump and the Europeans.
Russia has heard the European clamour for war. It has now made the strategic decision in response to prepare for war in Europe.
Russia hearing the European clamour for war, announces it is ready
“I’m always awake at 2:30 AM’
He’s sunsetting, remember? Nearly dead. 25th Amendment. Unlike Biden, who’s never been as sharp ever. As we saw with Obama this week.
“The DSA isn’t trying to save the Democrat Party. They’re hijacking it.”I mean, kind of. They’ve always been clear in their intent, even before there was a DSA. I know and talk to them all. But also the DNC is identical. Their policies are the same, intend, end goal, but they are the mid-Socialists. So the GOP are the Slow Socialists, the DNC the Fast Socialists, and the DSA the Very Fast Socialists. All believe in infinity government, just ask George Bush and Justice Roberts (of Unlimited Executive fame. How’s that goin’ now, Rob?) The GOP is mostly taken over by limited government but not Libertarians, so far. That’s the base and where they have to pretend, not the representatives themselves, which obviously believe in power.
So it’s hard to say you’re “Hijacked” when you make a special appointment, pay for their terrorist training for 20-60 years (Weathermen, Alinsky) open the cabin door to them, give them the captain’s hat, then say “Whoa! Whoa! What are you doing you criminal? This isn’t the Brownshirt raw violence I paid for. YOU are supposed to work for ME!” Uhhhh, yeah, that’s not how those words work.
Now I can’t remember who, because obviously I read and hear geopolitics like 14 hours a day, but he pointed out that Revolutions are from OLIGARCHS. Always and only. Rebellions can be commoners, but successful Revolutions are always Oligarch Civil Wars, including or especially our American Revolution. But they rile up and effectively hire, recruit, their factions of man in the street as it reaches a hot stage, then pretend it’s “The People” it’s “North and South” or some dumb s—t. It’s not. It’s rich guys fighting, that’s the way it is. It’s Generals picking philosophical sides. …Which merely allies with oligarchs. And it’s not A or B. It’s a whole scope of power brokers with shifting alliances, and that IS what we saw in 1770. And we don’t get to pick the perfect Jesus and Messiah – they always have to compromise with someone, on something, as we did on slavery, while making plans to sunset it.
But the only key here is these people on the ground aren’t real. They’re all whitewash, paid. The wealthy can cause them to exist or vanish at will. So the DSA is the BrownShirt party, expressly paid for by the DNC and eg Soros for 40 years. Don’t act surprised now. Nazis gonna Nazi. Don’t go SPLC and be their core or only donors.There’s no “Sneaking” anywhere. They needed them to do this, and to be petty tyrants and terrorize the country during Covid, burning everyone and getting everyone fired in their reign of terror, right on command, out of the CIA “Color Revolution” book WE wrote. And “we” let them because people didn’t believe it and needed to see.
But what happens if you create these guys and your coup and revolution fails, boys? You’re exposed. It all depended on normalcy bias, denying that’s what you were doing, that you were the good guys and no one gets hurt in a revolution. Now you can put them down and lose 1/3 of your party, or don’t, and be pure chaos and violence, and unelectable for a generation.
Yes, that’s why ‘we’ did this and put up with it, let it happen, infuriating as that is. Embrace the suck. But our side DID have principles, so we are not in self-contradiction and self-defeat. That we don’t uphold them, or need to expel and sideline those not living up to them is a strength not a weakness. And every day we take out a few more traitors and TRINOs. Because we have principles, so we can tell who they are. If we, the good, survive the front edge of the storm, we just win. We did.
“President Trump is going on a full CRUSADE against Communism”
Speaking of. Great! Then reduce the size of your trillion dollar government, right? No? He’s not wrong they’re the enemy, and we’ve seen this since before Wilson, fought and compromised with FDR, slowly reinstalled with LBJ, and supposed to crescendo into the 2020 Civil War and end of the Bill of Human Rights and Constitutional United States under Hillary. With WWIII and Covid thrown in for Lols. …Read their own documents, I’m not making it up. Read PNAC and Cheney, Army Lawyer stuff for GWoT. All of one piece. That “Communism” Russian Rev 2.0 was planned, but the same people in the same offices in the Pentagon are well aware and also trying to STOP it. So they know how. It was all about convincing US. Sell us on the two visions, that the danger was real or not. We won, as I said years ago, we’re only cleaning up now. And it’s very painful and incomplete, very unsatisfying. But better than losing.
“The document commits DSA to scrapping the U.S. Senate, ‘abolishing the carceral forces of the capitalist state,’ defunding the Department of War, amnesty for all immigrants, and ‘replac[ing] the President and Supreme Court with an executive and judiciary chosen by and subordinate to Congress.’”
This erases the U.S. while keeping all other nations and evils intact. Genius. There is then no bulwark, no counterweight to the People’s rights and needs anywhere. This is obvious, since their slogan is “Burn it all Down.” ALL of it. Believe them. There won’t be like, a “Law of the Jungle” where rich capitalists and gun owners win if we erase the entire government, starting with the Senate. We’ll have MORE Human Rights with no government remaining to even claim to uphold them, no one to appeal to, no police to arrest violations.
“We are Westerners fighting for the collapse of Western Civilization”. And replacing it with nothing. Replacing with HATE, destruction, murder, suicide. No? Show me your new constitution and prospective Politboro and Central Committee.
Yes, this isn’t even a revolt, it’s just collapse. There’s no government even planned to replace with.“You’re Next!” As I said for years. I wasn’t kidding. Here we are.
“mushroom brain is the ideal symbol for the party. They’ve spent so many years building a party around identity checklists, approved narratives, and the politics of grievance that they’ve completely lost the ability to produce a leader who can actually lead. What they can produce is someone who will, in an almost reliable fashion, say the right things in the right order to the right interest groups—and when that person can no longer reliably do even that, apparently the answer is to keep sending him out anyway, teleprompter and spotter included, because the alternative is admitting they have nothing at all to offer.”
Just as the USSR at the end. “Closing the Collapse Gap with the Soviet Union”. However, this only works when there is no competition.(Like the USSR) You ID, track down, and murder them all, which was clearly what they were up to in 2020. Even 2016. But if there IS competition, you instantly lose. This is the EU’s problem, Globalists’ problem, DNC problem – but I repeat myself. IF Russia has an independent monetary, government, military system to the EU/UN, there is an alternative to Globalists and “1984”. China, while being similar, is not obedient to that system. That’s two, and they’re very geographically, demographically large. If the U.S. is competing too, not FULLY obedient, you totally lose, not a chance. And even at various states, we may be controlled, but never obedient, ever. And we’ve taken huge steps to independence since then, 2001 or 2014 or something.
There isn’t a chance in hell if there is the slightest free competition.
“two million pages of “burn bag” records, deliberately hidden in a secret room,”
Because they’re spineless weasels. If you want to revolt, then DO IT. They are half-doing, pretending, lying, deflecting, pretending. Passive-Aggressive, Feminine traits. And so “It’s against the law” to handle those records incorrectly and burn them. So being spineless cowards, they don’t, trying to make the next guy do it. You think hiding them is less illegal? C’mon, you’re a retard. But because they are spineless cowards, those records still exist to hang them with. How do I know? A: YOU WOULDN’T HIDE THEM OTHERWISE, duh. So I know they can jail you all. Your own actions prove my case.
“• Iranian Media Calls for Atomic Bombs as Official Says ‘We Are at War’ (Salgado)
Pretty clear Iran Media and PressTV are IRGC. Which makes sense. Yesterday’s Duran was once again how Putin is a retard and a loser and he’d better start doing PR/Information wars the way the BRITISH would. The way IRAN does. The way ALEX tells them to. Guys: Russia WON. Iran LOST. And you want to imitate the LOSING plan? Iran PR is straight Tavistok, London, I’m not even sure any Iranian reads it before it’s published. So IRGC, “Iranian Media” is NOT, or is even ANTI-Iranian. By definition. Stop listening not only to a Spy agency, but one that isn’t even Persian. I mean, do you hate the Iranian People that much? A: No. But they hate the UNITED STATES that much, and say daily how they want every American killed. Like me. Hate is their North Star. Anything that allows them to HATE America is a good thing. So saying Iran won and the US lost fans and feeds their HATE. Why? Since we all agree, wouldn’t a more productive plan be to reform the U.S. to our own American values? Of essentially isolationism? NOPE. Then I couldn’t HATE and KILL. I’d have to love the U.S. again, and I have a strict vow for love to never enter again. This is the moral superiority of Europeans and Canadians. It’s just WHO they would holocaust: Americans.
That’s what Jesus and all the angels would do. HATE, and LIE, and KILL. Right?
Stop listening to Intel agencies you know are pure evil since 1949. They are the Spokespeople and agents of the Prince of Lies. OBVIOUSLY. And Iran doesn’t get an exemption from that.
Okay, back to the headline: But Iran never wanted no Atomic Bomb! You said! There’s a Fatwa against it! Which even I stupidly believed. Now there isn’t, boys? You’re wide open, you’re gonna get one? No ambiguity, not denial at all? And get one to never ever use it, naturally…
C’mon. Stop now. So you want a bomb, essentially confirm you will definitely use it, and no one is supposed to stop you, we’re just supposed to let you, just watch while the bomb goes off on the first 1M civilian center since Nagasaki? No. You’re crazy. You’ve clearly misread the room. Even – I – don’t care if international law is broken to stop that, and clearly all the other 200 nations agree with me who also didn’t lift a finger. Their only allies are Europe, headed by the world Islamic head, Keir Starmer.
“Auto manufacturing companies in Canada operate there as part of the business plan to sell vehicles into the USA.”
Note the plan: always set up distances and tollbooths for no reason. For control. If the U.S. built and used their own cars they would be sovereign and powerful. If you break it up, then you cause them harm and collapse by shutting off Chinese or Mexican or Canadian parts at will. This is true of everything, and why Rare Earths, or like chicken packing, lumber sawing is in China. That’s not actually economical to take a chicken from Arkansas, freeze it, send it to Guangzhou to be a chicken nugget and ship it back. It’s to CAUSE DEATH. Harm, profit, control, destruction.
And so ALL of Canada here. Strip that out and what does Canada have right now? Sirs? That’s not good. WE can suffer that hit. You can’t. Get Bombardier and the Avro Arrow back up pronto. Get those wells and pipes running. Carney is nuking the country in a vain attempt to hurt the United States when we’ll barely notice. That’s not a fair trade. You’re going to get creamed and Carney is going to try to march you in to get killed 2M at a time like Ukraine. No.
Pepe: We just DID shut the Straits, totally, in a war, totally. No $700/bbl. Not even $150. People have said high prices but Pepe says “Hold my beer” and multiplies any previous high by TEN.
Being totally dead-wrong after 120 days in HINDSIGHT, with everything reported in the news doesn’t bother him a bit. He doesn’t even NOTICE Reality Exists.
Yes, Pepe, Oil is $700 and gas is $25/gal didn’t you notice? And we have landed 2 million men on the Iranian mainland. Russia and China have shipped armies and navies there instead of ignoring Iran almost completely, offering nothing but Satellite data. (Tit for tat with us in Kiev)
“The sources comment that “first, he (Republicans) would lose the first week in November elections. Then the Democrats would impeach him. And then he would be destroyed by lawsuits, losing all his money.”
Again. No news, no Reality. We Make S—t Up. I don’t think the midterms are even in contest for a dozen reasons, all of which have news articles all day for months that Pepe can read. When gas plummets to $3 again, that’s even more true. He’s just having a LARP Erotic Fan Fantasy. There’s no way he doesn’t know this, he isn’t engaging with ANY data, he just WANTS it to be true.
Okay, Pepe, so Iran had Trump over a barrel, if they held for 10 more days oil would be $70,000 a barrel. AND THEY DIDN’T?????? So the whole Iranian consort are fecking retards? Explain. They won, totally and completely, so they made sure to give this unconditional surrender BACK to Trump, so the U.S. could win. That’s what I’m hearing.
Explain?
“Tehran gamed all that to perfection. Call it the tollbooth or transit fees for any tanker wishing to pass through their Persian Gulf”
Except, winning that completely, Iran then let 175 ships through without paying. Then hit the only one with a smoke bomb that left it unharmed. Which you, Pepe, well know.
“Even brainwashed flocks of sheep across Western pastures are now becoming aware of how the mighty Roman Empire lost to the Parthians/Persians in the Battle of Carrhae in 53 B.C. “
No, nor do they know who Crassius was, nor care. If the whole U.S. thinks we won – mostly the case – then how are you gong to embarrass and leverage? They’re going to say “Lose? But we didn’t lose, so obviously we are not Crassius or Carrhae. Duh. We Rock!” If if we HADN’T won, which I argue in the general sense we have, that false belief ALONE on our part would erase your premise.
So Iran won because the Strait is open, not paying, no ships are sunk, the U.S. thinks we won, all the oil sales have moved to us, a dozen pipelines are going around Hormuz, and we are rapidly refilling the SPR. Got it.
What would Losing look like then?
“Iran has pressure points “more numerous and capable than the U.S. can bring to bear on the battlefield”
And they plan on using these pressure points starting when exactly? Again, WE DON’T CARE IF THE STRAIT IS CLOSED. We sell oil and get rich. YOU, Iran, do NOT sell oil and everyone dies. Simple.
““But I think they’ll try. Probably just Trump bluff,”
Then CALL HIS BLUFF. Is Iran too retarded to call a bluff they will win? Or too cowardly? They constantly say Iran won, but they’re just being nice and refuse to press the advantage and show it. “I meant to do that.”
“Trump may be prepared to cut his losses in Iran”
What losses? We haven’t lost a ship, the U.S. didn’t even notice we were in a war and thinks we won.
““Trump has clearly been frustrated by his inability to settle any of the conflicts he had promised easily.”DonaldTelepathy and internal emotional state of Trump, their God. Evidence, sir? Show me anything at all that makes you conclude and feel this way? I don’t see this at all. There is no evidence supporting this. It could be true! But you have to point at SOMETHING, and not Make S—t Up. If this is true at all, it’s easy to point to facts about it, right?
““the UK project to develop low-cost advanced long-range strike weapons for Ukraine has reached a significant milestone, with three British-designed systems successfully flight tested. The ground-launched strike weapons reportedly are capable of hitting targets more than 500km distant, at a speed of 600 km/h – whilst carrying a 225 kg warhead”.Now this is a consensus fact. Duran, after pointing all this out for 20 minutes, then hurriedly adds “But really it’s the “WEST”’ Uhhhh, no. It isn’t. You JUST said, your boy Stanislav JUST SAID that Trump read Europe the riot act, departed, taking NATO with him. There is no “West.” There is no “US”. There is only YOU.
“According to the Financial Times, Trump was “hugely impressed and enthusiastic [with Russian strikes]”
The Financial Times? Really? JHC. Am I wrong or is the FT a EU, Globalist, Rothshield outlet that hasn’t been right since 2002? You believed them? And I suppose next you’ll reprint the Iraninan Military Press Releases as gospel too. Then Comey, Starmer, and Macron’s. Then put every CIA employee as both the Guest AND the anchor on CNN. Oh, Wait.
Spy agencies: when have they ever lied?
“This represents a huge strategic shift. Russia no longer seeks a relationship with Washington, though contact with DC will continue.”
This is patently and obviously false, as demonstrated by the Duran having an aneurysm about it each day. “WHY does Putin keep extending and working WITH Trump, daily, hourly, in close coordination? Is he just a retard? Or a bum f—k too?” He better start doing what Brits like us Alexes say! If he knows what’s good for him! We Alexes know more than the FSB all day!
So no. There is no “End” to US/Russia right now. Clearly it’s beginning and stronger than ever. Only Europe. Stop just making things up. Whatever you want to be true, we just say it! Then it’s real when I thought it in my mind!
“He stated that whilst, until recently, NATO countries had limited themselves to supporting the Kiev regime to wage war on Russia, the West today is openly talking about preparing for a war against Russia,”
Yes, and Putin SPECIFICALLY EXCLUDES THE US. And NATO is being abandoned by the U.S., famously, daily, in headlines.
“Alastair Cooke : Russia Ready For War With Europe”
Note therefore: “Russia not ready, preparing, or even considering war with the United States.” Think about that.
Am I making that up? Exaggerating? No. Think what Russia would be doing instead if that were at all the case, even a little bit.
“Trump’s Attack Backfires”
Except we neither notice nor care. Trump doesn’t care. Bahrain doesn’t care. The People don’t care — they don’t even notice. No one can tell Iran is punching anything. And I mean ARE they even punching anything? Wouldn’t something happen if they ever did?
The only thing that happens is “Words are said” in headlines no one reads.
“Backfiring” means, “Nothing happens, no one even knows you exist.”
I know that’s super annoying and even hard to believe, but it’s true. We pay more attention to the last Lizzo album than you. And rightfully so, if your actions have no effects on Reality.
This does not make be proud, but I’m not here to be proud, I’m here to tell you what’s going on.
I can’t tell Iran exists as a nation, if they vanished, I also couldn’t tell. Or Probably all Europe for that matter, so imagine how little we would notice without, eg, Canada.
Gas prices were where Biden put them. Shocker. Congress COULD issue a 60-day “We’re in a war ackshully” and rein Trump in, but don’t, and won’t. The midterms are not even at risk. F250 sales are brisk. Stock Market and pensions, great. USD at strong highs. Nothing. If you said there was no war at all, no Iran, nothing happened, draw-ruler-line-on-graph-paper, we just continued without any headlines from 2024, 2020, 2016, 2002, 1994, I’d believe you.
Iran should try killing a soldier or base or something and make us notice them. When will they do that? When will they start?
Yes, I will. WHEN will any of that happen?
Not now, that’s for sure!
And I’m not saying it can’t. But it matters when it does and does, will or won’t, same as Y2K. Same as missing the Dow from 666 to 54,000 like I did for exactly this reason. IT MATTERS that none of this is real. It’s not having effects. Because I need to act and prepare accurately and not inaccurately thinking Iran can affect things. I thought they could but was at last open to watching and reading the market action, etc, taking their lead instead of my own. Now 120 days later they’re still selling what was proven false as if we are 2024 and the 12-Day hasn’t happened, much less this training exercise.
Show me. They’re reporting their Dreams. No. I lost enough money — or technically, opportunity — on believing what should happen instead of what did.
WHAT COULD HAPPEN.
The DSA is now the Democrat mainstream.
hostile takeover.The old Russia,Russia,Russia, enemy is now, The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).
Smith revealed that “earlier this month, the Democratic Socialists of America’s top leadership met for an in-person meeting of their National Political Committee (NPC), the DSA’s governing authority. The result of the meeting was ‘Workers Deserve More!’, a rebooted platform for the organization featuring a host of radical proposals.”
The “Workers Deserve More!” document, as Smith describes it, a blueprint that, if implemented, would without any doubt lead to the total destruction of the United States.
Gavin Newsom is already there. And that’s just another indication of how this socialist madness, that has failed in so many countries, is become mainstream in ours, where people should know better, but apparently (after years of miseducation) do not.
————–
The fuse on the derivatives bomb + 18 days for diesel fuel and jet fuel.“The danger is not the price tag itself, but the fact that the price spike will trigger the structural collapse of the underlying debt infrastructure”.
Crucially, the sources maintain that “a precise look at the operational data reveals that the system’s absolute breaking point – and the fuse on the derivatives bomb – will likely occur by mid-August 2026.”
—————Does Trump want to restart full-scale kinetic war on Iran?
Plus news and updates from Israel, Lebanon, Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Yemen
Ismaele
Jun 28, 2026https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/does-trump-want-to-restart-full-scale
————-
Peace could be coming …
The fuse on the derivatives bomb + 18 days for diesel fuel and jet fuel.
@ John Day
I looked it up
You’re invoking the famous line from the McCarthy era loyalty interrogations:
“Are you now, or have you ever been a member of the Communist Party?”
It became a symbol of political fear, ideological policing, and forced declarations of loyalty during the 1950s in the United States. It was used by the House Un‑American Activities Committee (HUAC) and later by Senator Joseph McCarthy during hearings targeting government employees, artists, academics, and military personnel.
It’s one of the most recognizable phrases from that period — a shorthand for coercive questioning and suspicion‑based politics.
Peace could be coming everywhere
The fuse on the derivatives bomb + 18 days for diesel fuel and jet fuel.200 Gas Stations Wiped Out⛽Orikhiv Almost Encircled🎯 Another Oil Refinery Destroyed🛢️🔥 MS 2026.06.28
⛽ Kharkiv Isolated — One-Way Ticket City 🚫💥 Bohodarivka Has Fallen📍 Military Summary 2026.06.29
Dr. D: It’s not Canada or the US. It’s the European countries that you would miss/recognize. Advantage of having your own culture/language. Doesn’t make you better, but sure as hell more recognizable. Until a bunch of idiots send another bunch of idiots to invade you and you welcome them.
Copilot found …
Bottom line
Yes, the U.S. has detailed, active fuel‑rationing plans.Yes, Canada has detailed, active fuel‑rationing plans.
They can be activated quickly.
They do not eliminate the 18‑day constraint — they only slow the burn.
I notice many of those writers who got us through the past decade, the covid and Ukraine times, seem to have lost their touch. Don’t really know what to replace them with, other than 100 different voices. We do what we can, but that’s a lot of reading.
June 29, 2026
War On Iran: – Iran’s Negotiators Are Under Pressure- The U.S. is obviously not willing to fulfill the conditions set out in its Memorandum of Understanding with Iran. It will need more pressure from Iran to make the U.S. agree to its demands.
Iran says ‘no technical talks’ with US scheduled for this week in Doha
Monday, 29 June 2026 1:03 PM [ Last Update: Monday, 29 June 2026 1:03 PM ]https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/06/29/771296/Iran-US-Gharibabadi-Doha
IDIOT’S GUIDE:
How to make friends Jewish Methodhttps://x.com/martinez_j7902/status/2071087393575252085
Irlandarra @martinez_j7902“My young son, 7, is under the rubble. My 15-year-old daughter is still under the rubble. My whole family is gone. What have they done to you, Netanyahu?”
Palestinian father sobs with pain as he describes the bitterness of displacement.
Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 29 2026 20:14 utc | 71
Dr. John you beat me to the punch!
You can tell the top of the US pyramid is failing and flailing when they run out the red scare herring. Every Single Time.
not to be to damning, the citizens fall for the bull Every Single Time.the situation is similar to those who say prayer doesn’t work, and wnen asked reveal they have never prayed.Somehow we are supposed to believe feudalism is superior to communism.
The only lie bigger than the red baiting is the story that the US is a capitalist nation.That ruse ended in 1929. Indentured debt servitude with a lifelong contract, open thievery in the finance industry. Want to know what a whore looks like? Go to a real estate office and talk to any ot the sales agents.Make it cheap, make it shiny and make it quickly. There’s a new trend waiting on Madison Avenue
Mr. Meijer perhaps the majority of writers have always just been going with the flow. The tide has turned and effete snobbery is out the window. Poe had a point in The Pit and the Pendulum.
@zerosum & tboc: Yeah ;-/
@RIM: I can’t get stuff out every day any more, because so many stories need 3 days of watching now, before I can avoid looking stupid (which I detests).
This guy “no-one” has really got a good algorithm set up to spit summaries out every morning https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/
Otherwise, you see what I post, some of it from here. History is moving fast and jumpy.
I am guided somewhat by a discernment of moral-right from moral-wrong, and pretty good pattern-recognition for lies by now…“Iran Contradicts Trump, Refuses Talks ‘At Any Level’ For Coming Days, While US Delegation Travels To Qatar
So they sign an MoU in order to do this negotiation, in order to immediately not do the negotiation? And Iran is the good guys and the good faith actors? Well ONE of the two is in error. Either the “Iran” – the ACTUAL government– isn’t doing this, or Iran is completely bad faith and should only be bombed to powder without delay. Pick one. You know my opinion, there are between 4 and 34 “Irans” while the media – And Larry Johnson — furiously pretends there’s one.
“Oil Markets Are Pricing A Supply Surge That Isn’t Guaranteed
Another guy who says the markets are wrong when for 6 months they’ve been totally right. And gold is falling.
““Larry Johnson : Is Trump’s MoU Unraveling?”
It’s not Trump’s MoU: Iran signed it. Oh wait: no one exists or has any responsibility but the United States. You are infantalizing the Whole Persian race, and so colonial you didn’t even realize you’re saying they don’t matter/don’t exist. Only Trump exists. Thanks Larry.
Iran won, unconditionally. Trump signed it. Therefore it’s exclusively 100% IRAN’s MoU. They dictated terms to Trump. Right?
So is IRAN’S MoU collapsing in front of their eyes, being the winners here? Please try to keep your stories straight here.
“Elijah Magnier: Iran & U.S. Rush to Doha as Deal Teeters on the Brink”
You mean Iran’s deal, right? The one they dictated to Trump.
So many lies that I can do this all day, and obviously do. I listened to that one and Larry makes every mistake I’ve covered for months. “We” can’t fight Russia, for instance, bc Germany is weak. O Rlly? We defeated Iran of 90M people in 120 days. What do you think we can do to Russia if we tried? Yes, we can. We would immediately have a nuclear exchange for just that reason, but WE have all the power. So WE could do that. That’s why Europe is so mad that WE – and “NATO” – won’t. Germany is useless and attempting this war, but the US is leaving NATO at light speed. There is no “Us”. But again, he flips back and forth with pronouns, very carefully ignoring…you know, all and every fact. Incredible talent in “Not Noticing”. A black belt in lying.
So if you want to listen to it for that purpose alone it’s highly educational. If you’re looking for actual information? Hahaahhahaha! No.Okay, so what new story, complete fabrication are you making up today? That the tankers are going through but — because magic — we are going to run out and have a derivatives meltdown this week bc everyone has been awesome at predicting these things. What next?
18 days for realizing my dream of Hope
Hope is eternal,
Peace could be coming,
WHY
The faster that they burn diesel fuel and jet fuel…
The faster that they spend money that don’t exist
The faster that the fuse burn on the derivatives bombPredetermined Outcomes https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/predetermined-outcomes
The context of our current global economy is that it is in terminal resource-decline, but that is not known to most people. This is like a movie I saw as a kid with a couple of guys fist-fighting on a barge headed for a waterfall. They went over the waterfall. I think one guy miraculously lived.
Everything that happens has to result in what is happening, decline in resources causing decline in real-economy, so things that would make resources available and economy boom will-not-happen.
They cannot happen. It all has to decline, but our owners intend to control the shaping of the decline. War is the control-narrative that facilitates this. The Strait of Hormuz is a control-valve being contested between rival power-alliances. Each can close it, but both have to agree for it to be open. It now defaults to closed.The Honest Sorcerer, The Big Picture – On why having a plan does not equal having a well-thought-out plan
Let’s start with one of the basic laws governing life: energy is (almost) everything. Without energy, there is no movement, no light, no heat, no change—just the opposite: cold, darkness and slow decomposition. In other words: a steady and relentless rise in entropy, or disorderliness. What’s even more important than energy is its flow—power—the rate at which work is done or energy is transferred. This is the amount of heat, electricity, light, movement, physical or chemical change generated or done in a unit of time—a second, an hour, a year. Contrary what your local priest of economics tries to tell you, this is what really matters—GDP, inflation and all the rest comes only thereafter.
Throughout 99.3% of human history the rate of technological, societal or economic change was limited by the amount of energy we could capture from the Sun in any given year. Think: plants collecting sunlight and turning it into edible energy (food). Gusts of wind and the flow of rivers moving ships and mills—making us entirely dependent on the weather, which too was ultimately powered by the heat emanating from our central star. Much of our history revolved around how to capture even more of our Sun’s power and how to turn it into more humans and more affluence for those who ruled over us…
..Towards the end of the 18th century, in our relentless search for more power, we found a way to harness the power of conserved sunlight: fossil fuels. Long dead plants—buried deep underground in the form of coal, oil and natural gas—stored way more concentrated energy, than even the best firewood or the best crop could ever provide. Work was no longer limited by the amount of calories available, or the ability of humans and their animal slaves to convert food into work. Instead we got hold of a seemingly unstoppable 24/7 flow of high grade energy, which our machines, locomotives, ships, then later power plants trucks and planes converted into more products, food, raw materials, transport, trade or what have you. Our rate of energy consumption—a.k.a. power—shoot through the roof, together with the political power of a wealthy elite who controlled it all…
..The energy cost of extracting resources goes up in a slow but exponential fashion over time. The thing to note here is not the exact technique used to get a certain resource (be it fracking, or various secondary and tertiary recovery technologies) but the slow and ever worsening trend. Simply put: as it takes more and more energy and other resources to get the same amount of coal, oil, copper etc. year after year, more and more of the said resources will have to be returned into extraction—leaving less and less surplus for the economy to work with…
..The extraction of energy and raw materials, and the rate of which these are spent, defines economic and political power. High energy throughput → high GDP → high political (and often military) power. Money is just an intermediary in the process…
..And this is why America sees China—a country using almost twice as much energy and housing four times as much people—as a major threat…
..The world, near the definitive end of material growth, thus finds itself in a zero- then negative-sum game. In a global economy, where less and less is produced, mined, manufactured, there will be lower and lower need for services, insurance, banking etc.—not to mention the issue of our debt based money system requiring eternal economic expansion to avoid collapse…
..Depending on how fast and to what extent oil production in, and shipments from, the Persian Gulf can recover (my base case is to 40-50% of their pre-war levels by December, 2026) we are looking into a cumulative loss of 2-3 billion barrels by year end. Even if inventory releases make up for a billion barrels that were not produced this year, we are still about to lose 3-6% of world crude oil supply on an annual average for 2026…
..Knowing how tight the connection is between transportation, manufacturing, mining, construction, agricultural output and oil consumption is, that means we are facing a similar decline in real economic output, too. There is no other way around it: once inventories fall below critical levels and real world shortages begin, governments will be forced to curtail or ration fuel use—first and foremost in the industrial, mining and construction sector, and mostly in highly exposed Asian countries. Food production and transportation will be prioritized…
..Just as with COVID induced oil production shut-ins, the real world economic impact of the crisis will take many months if not a full year to arrive. And since this time agriculture will be especially hard hit with fuel, fertilizer and chemical shortages (on top of a massive El Nino added to already raging droughts and heatwaves from climate change) food prices will likely skyrocket in 2027…
..As for a cue what to expect, take a look at European industries 4 years after Russian gas has been shut off and pipelines were blown up. Electricity and gas prices in Britain and elsewhere in the EU are still 90% higher compared to other parts of the world, continuously eroding competitiveness and acting as a primary driver behind deindustrialization…
..As our efforts to get the next batch of resources require more and more complexity and hit diminishing returns, the economics of extraction and production begins to break down. Again, not everywhere, all at once—but one place after another. These small changes do add up, however, and we eventually get to the stage where the global material economy simply stops growing. See, for example, the case of copper and silver, two highly sought after and essential inputs to all things high-tech and electric from solar panels to microchips and data centers. Silver is already past its production peak, and copper is expected to reach it before 2030. (If it haven’t hit it already due to the Hormuz crisis limiting sulfur exports—a key input to processing certain copper ore types.) …
..Last week I reiterated and expanded on an argument from Simon Watkins, saying that the aim of the United States as part of its ‘Energy Dominance’ agenda is to control the majority of world oil trade, in order to maintain its global primacy—even if it comes at the cost of permanently shutting in production in some parts of the world and destroying infrastructure in other places. Hence the CIA directed drone attacks on Russian refineries, prompting Russia—the third largest producer of crude oil in the world—to import gasoline. And hence the attempted, then miserably failed regime change attempt in Iran, with stopping Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons development program being used as a diplomatic cover. See, had Operation Epic Fury turn out be a roaring success—as the abduction of the Venezuelan president had earlier—the entire Middle East would’ve eventually fallen under US/Israeli rule…
..Once the SPR starts to run low, and as diesel and lubricant shortages begin to bite, though, the US will likely have to do more to accommodate Iranian demands / find alternative routes—so more Gulf oil could reach the market. Not too much, though, just barely enough to prevent a financial / economic meltdown… In this situation, no matter how bad it will be for the rest of the world and the global economy as a whole, neither the States, nor Iran will have the incentive to fully reopen the Strait. Both will likely want to use it as leverage: Iran over the US, the US over China (and other Asian economies).
But wait, there is much more to the story than oil. America has a surplus of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and natural gas liquids (NGL) to sell—which it can now push on to Taiwan, among many other countries in East Asia and India, at a premium price. And, as an added bonus, thus becoming the largest supplier of these fuels—used in power plants and for cooking respectively—Washington gains direct leverage over these countries, just as it did over Europe after becoming its largest LNG vendor. Remember, nothing happens in this Universe without energy. Energy directly translates into political power and becoming “the world’s leading energy producer and exporter” by starting and funding wars, blowing up pipelines and refineries, imposing sanctions etc. is nothing but a pure market and power grab…
..China is not the enemy, nor is the United States. The real enemy to confront here is an economy built on infinite growth driven by Wetiko—a psychosis devouring not only the living world but its own subjects as well…
..The bad news is: this decline cannot be stopped—only hastened—as it is driven by not political or individual decisions, but the logic of a complex system with all its economic and cultural incentives built on the fastest possible draw-down of non-renewable resources. This civilization is rapidly passing its sell-by date, and faces a long tumultuous decline—and neither trying to build an electrified surveillance utopia, nor reinstating oneself as the petro-king of the world can change that. The good news is, on the other hand, that there is a way to restore what has been broken; if not fully, then at least to a degree where subsequent generations—of not just humans but all living beings—can live a materially poorer but certainly more fulfilling life. In order for us to live, the Megamachine must die. https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-big-pictureThanks Zerosum: Pepe Escobar, Why neo-Crassus desperately needs to cling to HIS deal
One of my recent columns on How Iran engineered its multipolar breakthrough provoked some serious response by top old school U.S. Deep State intel operatives, now involved in global business. I was sent a consistent, detailed breakthrough about what they maintain is the main reason for President Trump to sign the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran, which he is frantically spinning as his (italics mine) deal.
As one of these sources bluntly put it, “the main point you are missing is that Trump was scared stiff by June 15 being only 60 days away from the final emptying of the world reserve oil supplies, leading to the complete destruction of Donald J. Trump. That is the only reason for his about face. If he waited much longer, he would by August 15 be so behind the eight ball that he would not be able to recover And that may happen anyway.”
The source was referring to a detailed risk assessment where the hard data points to mid-August 2026 as “the moment the U.S. must legally halt the emergency dumping. When that tap closes, the global oil supply deficit will instantly widen by millions of barrels per day, creating a world crisis.”…
..Way beyond the destiny awaiting the self-styled neo-Crassus, the sources mostly insist that “the 60-to-90-day runway we are currently sitting on is not just a timer on the physical oil in the ground; it is the remaining fuse on the largest credit bubble in human history.”…
..The sources are careful to remind those willing to listen that “what we have now is a rebellion at the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of global oil goes through there, and Iran wants that power to protect itself. When it is cut off the price of oil according to Goldman Sachs will go to $700 a barrel. It does not today as the U.S. and allies are dumping their storage on the market to hold the price down. They have about 2.5 months supply to do this. Then everything explodes. You have here the rebellion of the slaves.”…
..Crucially, the sources maintain that “a precise look at the operational data reveals that the system’s absolute breaking point – and the fuse on the derivatives bomb – will likely occur by mid-August 2026.”
Enter the interplay between the physical depletion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR); the true, practical limits of oil prices; and the terrifying, hidden two-quadrillion-dollar derivatives market. The sources analyse this interplay as a highly synchronized endgame.
Let’s summarize it. As of late May 2026, only a month ago, the SPR has been drained to 365.1 million barrels, “the lowest operational level in over 40 years.”
With the Strait of Hormuz virtually closed – including by the Trump blockade – the U.S. is currently drawing down an historic 1.41 million barrels a day (nearly 10 million barrels a week) to artificially suppress prices.
Then comes “the critical policy number to watch”. It is not “zero barrels”, but actually 243 million barrels. Why? Because the Department of Forever Wars has certified that drawing the reserve below 243 million barrels explicitly impairs the American capability to wage war.
Once again the sources refer to their analysis: at the current velocity of 1.41 million barrels a day, the U.S. would burn through its 122-million-barrel discretionary cushion in exactly 86 days.
In their risk assessment, the sources chose to point to 60 days – accounting for potential infrastructure failures or increased military consumption. That’s how we get to mid-August 2026 as the breaking point.
And that’s not all. The sources note that “prices could easily breach the historic 2008 and 2022 peaks if refined product shortages trigger cascading shutdowns across European and Asian industrial sectors. However, a multi-hundred-dollar figure like $700 is widely considered a theoretical maximum that would instantly destroy global demand and collapse the entire international financial architecture before it could ever be sustained.”
.. We have a scenario of the SPR being depleted compounded with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked, “prices will violently spike past the 2008 records, testing $150 to $200 a barrel.”
At that threshold, “the physical economy experiences immediate demand destruction. Airlines grounded, shipping networks halted, and industrial manufacturing ceased. The price cannot physically sustain $700 because the global economic machine using the oil will disintegrate at $200, causing consumption to drop to near zero.”
And here we come to the clincher: “The danger is not the price tag itself, but the fact that the price spike will trigger the structural collapse of the underlying debt infrastructure”…
..Neo-Crassus – prone to apocalyptic vociferations and non-stop threats to bomb Iran – simply cannot afford to have the SPR running dry. Yet that’s the way things will go if Hormuz does not revert to total free flow sooner rather than later. And it’s Tehran that controls the flow, not War-a-Lago.
Either neo-Crassus contains himself, or he may even become responsible for a global crisis linked to widespread sovereign debt implosion. https://strategic-culture.su/news/2026/06/24/why-neo-crassus-desperately-needs-to-cling-to-his-deal/IAEA Chief Confirms Nuclear Inspectors Returning To Iran, No Timeline Given https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iaea-chief-confirms-nuclear-inspectors-returning-iran-no-timeline-given
US & Iran Set For New Talks, Trump Says, Hours After Tehran Denied Plans Due To Days Of Hormuz Attacks https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-iran-set-new-talks-trump-says-hours-after-tehran-denied-plans-due-days-hormuz
Iran Contradicts Trump, Refuses Talks ‘At Any Level’ For Coming Days, While US Delegation Travels To Qatar
Iran Foreign Ministry contradicts Trump on Doha talks: “We will not hold any negotiation meetings at any level with the American side in the coming days.”
US-Iran talks may resume Tuesday in Doha, Trump declaring the plan in a Monday Truth Social, with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveling to Qatar, though Tehran denies technical negotiations are scheduled. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-iran-set-new-talks-trump-says-hours-after-tehran-denied-plans-due-days-hormuz Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-06-29
The big delta: the Iran-US “ceasefire” turned into theater inside one trading session — futures popped on an Axios “halt strikes” headline an hour before Sunday’s open, then Iran no-showed the scheduled Tuesday technical talks.
The other material move is institutional: the BIS put the AI bubble and its circular-financing plumbing in writing as a top systemic risk, the same week hedge funds dumped tech at a record pace and the dollar hit a 13-month high. Hormuz remains physically broken, China’s gold-policy machine keeps grinding, and the Donbas front keeps closing.
US-Iran deal announced, then collapses within hours. A “halt strikes and meet this week” agreement broke an hour before futures reopened (BarakRavid, Kobeissi) — then Iran didn’t attend the scheduled technical talks (BRICSinfo, michaelh992, Mark4XX). “Carbon copy headline every Sunday evening” (zerohedge); “Weekend War so we don’t upset markets”…
..IRGC claims it destroyed eight US sites in Kuwait and Bahrain (AJEnglish); Friday’s US strikes hit Iranian storage and coastal radar after a drone strike on a commercial vessel…
..Hormuz physically still shut despite the headlines. Traffic has moved almost entirely to the Iran-designated corridor (MenchOsint); tanker crossings fell 58→24 vs ~120 pre-war (ekwufinance); odds of normal flow by July 31 down to 37% (KarelMercx). Iran reportedly lost track of its own minefield…
..Oil paradox: the “worst oil shock in history” left crude cheaper than pre-war, because reserves were drained to a 43-year low to hold the line (per Shanaka)…
..BIS names the AI bubble + circular financing as a top systemic risk. The central bank of central banks flagged “peril” from circular AI/data-center/shadow-bank financing, with the same asset pledged multiple times…
..The “three alarms” framing: record tech selling, dollar at a 13-month high, and the BIS naming debt-funded capex out loud (per Shanaka)…
..Zhipu AI reportedly matches Claude Mythos at security-bug detection… Ex-Meta PM argues enterprises will ditch OpenAI/Anthropic for self-hosted Chinese models (quxiaoyin)…
..Gold/silver: central-bank floor vs. Western retail capitulation:
Since April, US gold and Bitcoin funds bled ~$12B while semiconductor funds pulled in ~$20B (per Shanaka) — gold’s “death cross” forming.
The bull case: death crosses in gold have repeatedly marked sentiment resets, not tops (Macrobysunil).
Silver in a top-5 drawdown of the past 30 years, weekly RSI near historic oversold (TheApeOfGoldStreet)…
..China imported 163 tons of gold in May, the largest monthly haul since March 2024 (thesiriusreport, minenergybiz).
PBOC is revamping gold import/export rules (oriental_ghost); accumulate-gold accounts now yield interest and serve as loan collateral (DavidLe)…
..Russia–Ukraine: Donbas pincers tighten; a brigade commander shot in the rear…
..Ukrainian Army 154th Mechanized Brigade commander Kononnikov found shot in the back, plus an intel officer (Fakhriev) — both dead the same day…
..Iraq: Green Zone corruption sweep, days before the PM’s Washington trip … One framing: a US-backed cleanup of Resistance-aligned figures before PM al-Zaidi’s Washington visit (DD_Geopolitics)…
..Venezuela: quake toll passes 1,400; US humanitarian-military operation lands
1,430 dead, 3,238 injured, 68,900 reported missing by families (Osint613); 900+ US sanctions complicating relief (AlanRMacLeod).
US begins a humanitarian operation — warships, heavy-lift aircraft, a $150M aid package (zerohedge). On the ground: a 100-ton crane idle for 24h+ for lack of an operator with a key…
..Europe heatwave / AC culture war — genuinely high-volume, mostly framing. France reports 1,000 additional heat deaths (Lord Bebo), German trains halt as track sealant liquefies (zerohedge), and a public broadcaster runs an anti-AC campaign mid-heatwave (Polymarket, zerohedge). Real deaths, but the feed is dominated by “pigs get AC in China” trolling… https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-06-29Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-06-28
The big delta is overnight: US aircraft hit Iran’s southern coast a second time since the Memorandum of Understanding, Iran answered with ballistic missiles and drones on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and Trump openly threatened that “the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist.” Meanwhile Beirut is besieging its own government over the Israel framework, Iraq’s Green Zone got raided with politicians arrested, and China’s May gold imports printed another monster number…
..Oil: physical at prewar levels, paper market eerily calm
Physical crude prices sank to prewar levels even as tankers burn, and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest since 1983…
..WTI futures volumes ran ~30% below average Friday and weekend prices “didn’t flinch” at fresh tanker strikes — algorithmic, detached from the tape (DarioCpx). Someone bought “an absurd amount” of WTI calls expiring July 16…
..Tech/AI-bubble cracks: record outflows, MSTR below NAV, dangerous concentration
US tech-sector funds saw -$15B outflows, the largest weekly withdrawal in 2.5+ years, right after a record +$19B inflow the prior week…
..Gold: central banks set the floor as Western retail dumps
Central banks bought 244 tonnes in Q1 — and reportedly ~15x more than officially reported, per WGC data…
..Europe’s heatwave + EU AC class war: national temperature records (Germany 41.3°C), 109 deaths in Paris in 24h, and the EU Commission switching off AC on the lower 7 floors but not the commissioners’. https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-06-28Iran War: Struggle Over Strait of Hormuz Intensifies as US and Iran Strikes and Counterstrikes Escalate, US Escorts Tankers on Oman Side; Yet More on Oil and Diesel Squeeze
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has thrown down a hard marker, that Iran will control the Strait of Hormuz – Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi):
Under the memorandum of understanding, the Strait of #Hormuz will return to its pre-war operating capacity within 30 days under the management adopted by Iran and after the obstacles are removed by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
These arrangements are currently being implemented, and responsibility for them rests solely with the Islamic Republic of Iran. No other institution or country bears responsibility in this regard.
According to the memorandum of understanding signed between Iran and the United States, any interference in this matter, or any attempt to establish new or separate arrangements from those currently being implemented by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will only complicate the situation, delay the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and increase tensions.
As we witnessed over the past two nights, incidents in the Strait of Hormuz have already contributed to rising tensions and confrontations.
I call on all parties not to interfere in the management of the Strait of Hormuz or in the arrangements being made by the Islamic Republic of Iran for its reopening. They should abide by the signed memorandum of understanding and not allow it to deviate from its intended course.
The IRCG has also issued fresh warnings. From Aljazeera’s live feed:
IRGC warns it will ‘respond even more forcefully’
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has pledged to meet any US attacks with a more forceful response as tit-for-tat strikes continue in the Gulf.
“As we predicted, the enemy is an enemy that breaks its commitments, is deceitful, and cannot be trusted. At any moment, at any stage of the negotiations, it may take certain actions,” IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebi told state-run SNN TV.
“Whatever action the enemy takes in this regard, we have responded to it, and we will respond to it. We repeat: If the enemy breaks its commitments and violates the ceasefire, we will respond more strongly than before, and we stress we will respond even more forcefully. We regard such moves by the enemy as natural because we know the enemy’s nature,” Mohebi said. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/06/iran-war-struggle-over-strait-of-hormuz-intensifies-as-us-and-iran-strikes-and-counterstrikes-intensify-us-navy-escorts-tankers-on-oman-side-yet-more-on-oil-and-diesel-squeeze.htmlTehran Retaliates Against Bahrain, Kuwait After US Bombing Campaign Along Iranian Coast
Iranian state media is also confirming the fresh ‘retaliation’ for limited US airstrikes over the last two days, triggered initially by the Iranians seeking to enforce ‘control’ of the Strait of Hormuz, by attacking no less than two foreign vessels in as many days.
Latest via the same publication:
The US has bombed Iran for a second day, hitting the city of Sirik, Bandar-e Lengeh and Qeshm Island, following a drone attack on a commercial vessel near the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel has bombed southern Lebanon, killing at least one person, a day after signing a framework agreement with the Lebanese government to end hostilities.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun asks Trump to help prevent Israeli violations, as Hezbollah rejects the agreement with Israel, describing it as “a surrender of sovereignty”. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-escalating-drone-strikes-bahrain-yet-another-attack-foreign-vessel-hormuz-straitStrikes on Iran violate War Powers Resolution, US lawmaker says https://www.iranintl.com/en/202606277642
Simplicius, New Report Reveals True Extent of Devastation of US Fifth Fleet HQ in Bahrain
Another ‘bombshell’ has been released by WSJ regarding the extent of the damage dished out by Iran onto US regional bases, corroborated by detailed new satellite photos…
..US’s NSA (Naval Support Activity) Bahrain base, where the Fifth Fleet Headquarters are housed.
Less than 150 miles from Iran’s southern coast, NSA Bahrain has been the anchor of American naval power in the Middle East for more than three decades. The base can host every type of ship in the U.S. fleet, and has played a critical role in countering Iranian weapon smuggling, minelaying and tanker attacks.
They report that the US Fifth Fleet Headquarters has been rendered “unusable”—at least in part—after taking a huge ballistic strike…
..The damage to that HQ and other bases was so extensive that the US is apparently considering moving some of them “further west” rather than rebuilding them…
..They write that the CSIS estimated the damage to the bases could be as high as an eye-watering $5 billion dollars:
Pentagon comptroller Jay Hurst told Congress last month that the department’s estimated cost of the war, then at $29 billion, didn’t include damage to U.S. bases…
..As the only U.S. posting in the Middle East where families could live, the base functioned like a small American city, with a softball field, restaurants, a naval exchange and a school. Sailors who spent weeks at sea would pull into Bahrain and head to the base to decompress. https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/new-report-reveals-true-extent-ofKatz Says the US Hasn’t Asked Israel To Withdraw from Lebanon
The Israeli defense minister said civilians cannot return to the IDF-occupied area https://news.antiwar.com/2026/06/24/katz-says-the-us-hasnt-asked-israel-to-withdraw-from-lebanon/Hezbollah Supporters Block Roads, Encircle Govt Buildings In Beirut Over Israel Deal: ‘They Sold Us Out’
Mass protests broke out in Beirut on Friday into Saturday, with supporters of Hezbollah voicing their outrage at the Lebanese government having just signed a ‘trilateral peace framework’ with Israel and the United States, despite the IDF occupation of southern territory and sporadic Israeli bombings persisting. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hezbollah-supporters-block-roads-encircle-govt-buildings-beirut-over-israel-deal-they
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