alfbell

 
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  • in reply to: Report: The Golden Dilemma #4679

    alfbell
    Member

    There isn’t enough gold on this planet for it ever to play a role as money ever again. Maybe in Spain 400 years ago but no more. It is a relic now of ancient times and is in no way a solution to our problems. It might be part of a basket of commodities or resources that is formed to back up a currency, altho the chances of that are also slim in a Keynesian fiat money world, soon to be purely and electronic money world.

    The USD is the world’s reserve currency and will remain so for many years to come. There is no other currency on the planet that has the volume to take it’s place. Swiss francs? Singapore dollars? Yen? Yuan? Fuhgettaboutit. The currencies of the resource based countries like Canada, Australia, Brazil? No way either. Not large enough and they will all be hurt as the demand for raw materials and commodities diminish due to the global recession/depression.

    This whole gold thing coupled with survivalist doom and gloom is reminiscent of the 70’s or 80’s with books by Howard Ruff and the like warning of an imminent collapse and that we need to hole up in our tents with our gold coins, guns and ammo and water purification equipment.

    Let’s be realistic and not fall under the spell of alarmists. With all of the pretend and extend and unusual “solutions” that our governments are still capable of, and with the slow motion of time that it takes for governments and empires to fully collapse with resultant economic turmoil, there is no imminent disaster to prepare for. There is still a lot of wealth, resources and momentum within Western countries. It’s not like it’s gonna be “lights out” and back into the dark ages in the next 10 years or some such.

    If you have marketable skills and abilities that you can deliver for an exchange or barter with you’ll be fine. If you want peace of mind and a feeling of security then ensure that you have access to a little bit of land to grow some vegetables and keep some chickens and you will be fine no matter what happens.

    in reply to: Report: The Golden Dilemma #4678

    alfbell
    Member

    Again, comparing apples and oranges. Argentina versus the US? The false super power of the USSR versus the US? Don’t think so.

    This is a very very different animal. The US is the world super power and the USD is the world reserve currency. They can’t default. Only print.

    in reply to: Report: The Golden Dilemma #4676

    alfbell
    Member

    davefairtex:
    “I believe the ECB has a printing press. And I also believe that Greece defaulted.”

    Apples and oranges my friend. Greece is in a monetary union and does not have individual control over monetary policy. If they had printing presses they’d be using them with wild abandon.

    On the other hand, the USA can and will print to prevent a deflationary depression or default. The Fed will oblige, don’t worry about that.

    Matter of fact to prevent depression or default on a global level you can even bet that the major central banks of the world will unite and print in an attempt to stave off disaster. They are all Neo-Keynesians now and don’t know anything else.

    in reply to: Report: The Golden Dilemma #4669

    alfbell
    Member

    There can never be default as long as their are printing presses.

    in reply to: Report: The Golden Dilemma #4665

    alfbell
    Member

    I agree with most all of the arguments against gold in this thread. The pro-gold or gold bugs don’t want to listen to these points. They are fixed in their ideas because they have committed themselves and now they have no flexibility.

    Just look at history. When we have our big implosion, the next “FDR” will come along and do one or all of the following: tax it even more, devalue it, confiscate it.

    Gold isn’t even an inflation hedge any longer evidenced by the fact that it doesn’t move like it used to in relation to inflation. It is moving in tandem with the stock market now.

    Gold has always been touted as the oldest money or wealth. That is wrong. The oldest wealth is food, water, shelter, land, and tools or service facilities for one’s business or trade.

    THAT is what should be invested in and what will make one “wealthy” when times become difficult due to the perfect storm on the horizon due to economy, energy, weather and demographic crises.

    Let’s get down to basic logic: regarding gold and silver… you can’t eat it, can’t drink it, can’t live in it, and can’t fix your automobile with it.

    in reply to: Planet Earth – F.U.B.A.R. #3325

    alfbell
    Member

    Nobody knows what’s really going down and what the outcome will be. Change of plan for me: stop worrying and obsessing… I’m gonna enjoy myself, my life, my wife, my friends and whatever happens happens and I’ll deal with it. I’m gonna do what I’ve always wanted to do… spend most of my time studying and playing music. Think I’m gonna form about 3 bands and just MAKE MUSIC. Maybe it will be the soundtrack to TEOTWAWKI!!

    in reply to: There Is Not Enough Money On Planet Earth #3290

    alfbell
    Member

    The capitalists, communists, socialists, fascists, et al. have all made a total mess of things and have failed. Whether evil or well intentioned is irrelevant… they failed.

    No system will ever be successful until the human mind, and the spiritual being that utilized it, have been isolated and fully understood. Psychiatry, psychology, psychoanalysis, et al. have failed in this area as well. Very too bad because THIS is the key to man’s future survival.

    Find the source of evil and destructive intentions; the need to dominate; the need to destroy what another creates; man’s inhumanity to man; man’s illogic; man’s low level of morality; man’s “animalistic” tendencies; man’s inability to predict consequences; etc. and you will save mankind.

    in reply to: There Is Not Enough Money On Planet Earth #3234

    alfbell
    Member

    “Put your remaining wealth somewhere where no-one can get their hands on it. And then lay low and try to ride it out, that perfect storm. The only way to outsmart it is to go where it can’t touch you. Even if that’s close to home.”

    WHAT IS BEING SAID ABOVE IS IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE. THERE IS NO PLACE TO RUN OR HIDE BECAUSE THE COMMON DENOMINATOR OF CIVILIZATION IS BEING UNDERMINED… MONEY/CURRENCY. SECONDLY, NO ONE CAN ACCURATELY PREDICT WHERE THIS IS GOING THUS CAN NOT CORRECTLY “PREPARE” FOR IT.

    WEALTH IS BASICALLY WATER, FOOD, SHELTER, CLOTHES, BASIC SURVIVAL TOOLS OR SERVICE FACILITIES (AND POSSIBLY LAND). I WOULD THINK THAT A SUCCESSFUL PLAN WOULD BE TO WORK OUT INDIVIDUALLY HOW ONE CAN ACQUIRE AND MAINTAIN THESE BASIC FORMS OF WEALTH OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME SO AS TO SURVIVE WHATEVER HAPPENS. NO ONE KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN, IF IT WILL BE SEVERE OR MILD, HOW MUCH INFRASTRUCTURE WILL GO AND HOW MUCH WILL STAY, ETC. ETC.

    in reply to: Becoming the Bank #2089

    alfbell
    Member

    I think we need to respond to the big banking institutions the same way that we do with government people and institutions.

    Do you really think that pulling your money out of the bank and putting it into a local credit union or some such is going to effect these people and their plans?

    We are in FASCISM now and the banks, big corporations and government have all joined forces and become one to some degree.

    The US government, Congress, The Federal Reserve, etc. are all totally locked into their memes (false data, false ideologies, unworkable or inapplicable policies, etc.).

    The hubris, stubborness, self-interests, hidden agendas and “need to be right” will prevent any change from ever occurring.

    The only way for there to be a chance for reform is when our “leaders” finally run us into an unsolveable crisis socially, fiscally, or monetarily (and of course all of these collapses are on the horizon).

    So the best strategy to follow in my opinion is to not waste your time with “how things should be” or “how can we fix this”, etc. because we are on a runaway train that won’t stop until it hits a wall.

    The strategy is to understand these government leaders and institutions to the best of your ability. Be alert to every change and policy action they make and then quickly decide how you can use it to your advantage or how you can avoid the consequences of it. Follow very carefully what the goverment is doing and act accordingly to protect yourself.

    This is no way for a citizen to have to live but for now it is the only way to have a chance of surviving or thriving.

    Let’s just hope that after the collapse that it is a benevolent person or group that steps in to pick up the pieces and not another Adolf.

    in reply to: The Extraenvironmentalist Interviews Nicole Foss #1921

    alfbell
    Member

    I would appreciate input from any people that understand this and can explain it to me. I don’t understand how we can possibly have a deflation here in the US if there is the Federal Reserve who has the ability to print as much money/credit as possible. Especially with the facts that: Benanke is a complete Keynesian; he is a “scholar” of the Great Depression (who completely misunderstands what caused the depression and what should’ve been done to avoid it and/or to revert it); he has stated over and over that a deflation would be the most destructive thing that could ever happen and he will never allow it to happen and will drop unlimited amounts of money from helicopters to prevent it. Plus, we have all other developed countries under the control of central banks and all on fiat currencies and all able to print as much money (or issue credit) as they feel is needed.

    How can a deflationary depression happen when these central banks have unlimited ability to inflate. It seems that hyper-inflation is the threat, not deflation.

    I invite anyone and everyone to please help me out on this because I understand that a tsunami is coming, but I want to prepare for the correct type of tsunami. Thanks in advance.

    in reply to: Prediction is Very Hard, Especially About the Future #1753

    alfbell
    Member

    It is interesting how so many people can take such umbrage at the mention of conspiracies. To me, it indicates a very low reality on human behaviour. And, in some cases I’m sure that it is also a fear-based response. Look at the history of humanity… it is saturated with violence, intrigue, evil-doing, manipulation, sabotage, destruction and the like.

    Rome, Egypt, Chaldea, Babylon, Ming Dynasty and every other empire in history was rife with conspiracies.

    Of course there are conspiracies. Both hidden and overt. And they exist on every level of human activity: personal relations, family, business, finance, government, world affairs, etc.

    Look at the degraded mental states that men have dwelled in. Think of Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot, conquerors, mass murderers, child molestor/killers and so on. We only think of these people as large or historical figures. Yet there are people operating off of evil and destructive purposes just like the above mentioned sociopaths throughout all aspects and activities of life. They might not have the volume or intensitiy of a Pol Pot but they are out there causing disruption and destruction on different levels.

    Not all sociopaths are heavily sedated, fastened into straight-jackets and inside institutions or prisons. Many sociopaths can appear quite sane and they wear $3,000 suits and are driven around in limos. Some attain head of state heights, some are just a neighbor or your child’s teacher.

    And, is it not feasible that some of these sociopaths can find agreement with other sociopaths and thus form groups and conspiracies to further their objectives? Couldn’t they create a “contagion” by insidiously passing their ideologies down to their progeny, associates and followers through manipulation? Can people be misled into thinking that the evil they do is actually for the overall benefit of humanity or of some higher constructive purpose? Can’t groups of people be put to work in a compartmentalized fashion and kept out of communication with their other peer groups so that they don’t fully understand the project or purpose that they are contributing to, and what effect it will have on their fellow man? Propaganda is a powerful technology.

    If an action is too incredible or outrageous to believe, it takes on the characteristic of almost being invisible. It goes right over everyone’s head. Yet, it is happening.

    With what has been and is going on on this planet, I am pretty much open to anything… anything is possible.

    There is one postulate that we have “visitors” meddling in our affairs.

    I’m open to that as well.

    When our negative socio-economic and other conditions start being solved and man starts truly evolving to a higher state (not technologically because technology has gone way beyond the humanities… but mentally, emotionally and spiritually), then and only then will we know that we have located and confronted the real sources of our problems. We can’t repair or change a condition until we know its true cause or source.

    As long as negative or non-survival conditions persist in our world, we know that we don’t have the real answers as to what lies behind them. Having the truth, the real answers, is what unlocks the door to repairing or eradicating them. Having the truth is 90% of the battle.

    Best to keep an open mind and develop the power of observation. I think it is our only chance.

    in reply to: Are You Going to Believe Your Masters or Your Lying Eyes? #1690

    alfbell
    Member

    So if there is a credit freeze, what is the best position to assume in order to be best prepared for this?

    Would I be correct in saying…
    1) no debt (mortgage, auto, credit card)
    2) plenty of cash in the bank and in your mattress
    3) not in the stock or bond market
    4) some gold and silver

    Correct?

    If so, anything else?


    alfbell
    Member

    A self-sustaining community/commune with a divergent group of good like-minded people (wide ranging skill sets); on arable land (good crop fields and some solar green houses); with a good well; adobe type homes (thick clay or straw bale walls for comfort and low energy needs in Winter and Summer) with some wood stoves also; guns and ammo; and a little C-Class RV for bugout or emergencies would be a good way to go.

    Here’s a concept: Buy a large tract of good land in a good location and build your adobe home. Create a bunch of sites so others can build homes there as well (could even put down concrete pads and buy repo’d mobile homes really cheap and set them up for living). Be selective and start recruiting your community by having the people you choose buy into it or rent from you. End result: a group that thrives; grows its own food, repairs it own vehicles machinery and tools, protects and defends the compound, etc.


    alfbell
    Member

    I think a sailboat is definitely the ultimate “bugout” vehicle. It puts you in the best fabian condition and gives you a home with the most freedom from government and authorities and the best chance of survival (and no property taxes, domicile state, or way of being located).

    Unfortunately for a landlubber like me, and after just reading some of Orlov’s writings on the subject, there is a lot to know and a lot to do regarding this, which is a bit too intimidating for me. On second thought I don’t think that I can move towards this as a solution.

    (Damn! Why didn’t I take sailing when I was in camp, and why didn’t I spend some of my Summers learning how to boat and sail? Oh well.)

    I guess I’ll have to figure out how to survive and thrive on land. (I’m waiting for some genius to be able to do diesel engine conversions so they run on hydrogen or pure water. Then at least a motorhome would be a decent bugout vehicle for the future.)


    alfbell
    Member

    Hey folks… talking about speculation as to how things will go in the future due to economic crash and America going Fascist… here is some historical data that could shed more light on the subject.

    Niall Ferguson’s newest book, “Civilization: The West and the Rest”. He states that based on history there isn’t a slow gradual decline when an empire collapses (he explains this re: Rome, Ming Dynasty, etc.). It is fast. There is an exponential climb followed by falling off a cliff. This occurs in a generation or a few decades, even one decade (witness Russia, witness Egypt, Libya, etc.). He states that those thinking they have a lot of time to prepare and get their act together might have a big surprise.

    Gulp!


    alfbell
    Member

    Reverse: Yes, a boat could be the best bugout vehicle for survival. Never really thought about that. You’ve got me thinking now. (The thing about owning a home or farm is that the gubmint knows where you are and still controls you through property taxes, and who knows what other taxes they’ll devise for homeowners.) A boat (like an RV) is a home that can move around (fabian) and doesn’t have property taxes. Also very key… no major worries about fuel if it is a sailboat.

    Unfortunately, I know nothing about sailing and have no experience (I’m a land-lubber). A decent ocean going vessel could take you along the US, Canadian, Alaskan, Mexican, Central American coastlines, down to the Caribbean, etc. There would be all sorts of small ports, marinas, coves, etc. where one could locate, hide, hunker down, etc.

    If I could have a large enough freezer to keep meat and also some sort of garden (hydroponic?) on board I could go for long periods without needing to come in for supplies. Guess could have solar energy too?

    I’m age 60 and in good physical shape. So is the wife. If I went to the right school or teacher… how long would it take me to learn to sail in order to operate a decent size 60-70 ft schooner, or whatever the appropriate type of boat would be for this application? I know one key thing to learn is everything about weather conditions and navigation.


    alfbell
    Member

    Sorry RE. You may be correct yet I can’t abide cold weather. I live at 5,300 feet now in the mountains of SoCal. It is beautiful but my body type doesn’t do well with cold weather and snow. Makes me very uncomfortable and irritable and non-productive. (Altho a mixture of Irish/English/Italian, my predominant body characteristic is Mediterranean type). I’m unhappy now in 20 degree weather with thermal base layers, pile and down. Couldn’t imagine living in and around zero weather. Looking forward to getting back down to the flatlands and/or desert for warmer living.

    I know people live longer in the cold regions. And the cold mountains have always been the place where people seem to hunker down and survive or avoid predators, attacks, etc.

    If it wasn’t for the peak oil scene and the cost of oil skyrocketing over the next few decades my solution would be a motor home (mobility, flexibility, follow economic and educational opportunities, escape catastrophes, follow the sun and warm weather, etc.)

    If there really was a way to have an engine that ran on hydrogen/water or some other inexpensive fuel the motor home would be my survival solution.


    alfbell
    Member

    RE: yes, I agree about friends and community added to the list of stable datums. (Might I add being in a temperate climate area… thus not needing much energy for heat or A/C, and also having the benefit of a long growing season.)

    El G: please tell the lesson of the Kulaks in Russia.

    I posted my opinion earlier on this thread regarding things being upside down and backwards in our society (ie. what the status quo thinks and believes, and are programmed to think and believe, is usually the opposite of what is true) and I think this also applies to the above speculation about the Illuminati/NWO/TPTB. I believe Hollywood pushes this false notion forward by always having the villian or bad guy as the very wealthy, “together”, organized individual and the hero is always an unkempt, bungling guy with marital or relationship problems, always in trouble with his boss or the authorities due to his irresponsibility, etc.

    Wouldn’t you say that that is again another opposite? I believe people or groups that are on an evil bent, or pushing destructive intentions and purposes forward, will always wind up derailing and crashing. The more evil one commits the more “stupid” they become. If there are indeed people who want to make debt slaves of the masses and control them via a police state, I believe they are going against humanity and its urge to survive and thrive and it can only blow up in their faces. They are on this planet too, right? What they are doing is analagous to drilling a hole in the bottom of a boat and gleefully anticipating how everyone is now going to drown. Yet, they have forgotten one very important datum… they are on the boat too!

    I think the crash of the Eurozone is one of their faux pas. And they’ll be many more to come as they continue to work at making a mess of everything.

    Crime and evil does not pay in the long run, eh?


    alfbell
    Member

    Prediction and supposition are a waste of time. No one knows what is going to happen and when it is going to happen.

    Gold, silver, digital money, new currency, cell phones and on and on and on. What a bunch of drivel.

    Real wealth is water, food, shelter, clothing, tools, energy and land. That is all there is to it. This is the common denominator… the basic datum. Figure out your strategy based on this basic datum.


    alfbell
    Member

    Doesn’t appear to me that TD or any bank or institution would be safe if we got into desperate times. Who would want to put themselves in a position where they couldn’t have access to their money or even allow the chance of it happening? TD, Fed Reserve banks and the TBTFs are all easily accessible by the government and can be shut down or controlled in the blink of an eye. If anything, a small private local bank would be best BUT I wouldn’t even trust that.

    I guess desperate times would require desperate measures no matter how inconvenient those measures might be for us.

    Maybe the best idea would be to do something such as… starting now, slowly but surely get 90-95% of your cash out of the banks (obviously in $100 bills), just leaving enough and continuing to keep just enough in to pay bills and do business. (You can deposit some cash back in whenever you need more money to write a big check or pay off a credit card or some such.) Take all of your cash and your silver and gold and put it into one of those military stash containers that are waterproof, crushproof, etc. and find a very safe place to bury and/or hide it. Return to it on occasion when you need to replenish your cash. Like El G, move to some beautiful moderate climate environment like Mexico or Costa RIca or Belize and live well but inexpensively. Come back into the US whenever necessary to get your passport stamped, visit friends and family, etc. and then head back to your paradise.

    Find an income source in Mexico, or wherever you go, that will minimally give you enough income to handle your living expenses (lessening the amount of times you’ll need to go to your cash stash). Would be best if it was cash income off the books. Or you could even have an internet business.

    If you set up a formal business in this country and had a bank account you might be able to apply for and get citizenship. Then, if it ever becomes necessary, you’ll have the choice to renounce your US citizenship, turn in your US passport, and be free of US taxes and intervention for the rest of your life. If the US econ completely collapsed and became the welfare-war monger-police state that we all fear, who would want to live here anyway.


    alfbell
    Member

    If it all comes crashing down I can always live in my truck, stand on a corner with my guitar with a tip jar beside me and sing and play for my dinner. Come to think of it, this is what I’ve always wanted to do anyway. Ah… the simple life.

    in reply to: Why? Even the Weekly World News Didn't Have the Answers #1223

    alfbell
    Member

    So what happens?

    All of the deleveraging, defaults in general along with all of the CDS and other derivative categories collapses and we go into deflationary depression but of course The Fed and the US Treasury go beserk trying to stop it (since it is imprinted into their DNA to never allow deflation, never allow reality to take its toll) and print money until its coming out of every orifice of every person.

    So we wind up with hyper-inflation, deflation, stagflation, disflation and every other -tion all mixed in to one big financial apocolypse now cake.

    in reply to: When the Deflation Tsunami Hits, Losing the Least is a Winner #1117

    alfbell
    Member

    One thing that I have learned is life is that we live in a world mostly of hypocrisies and ironies. Truth tends to dive out of sight and hide… or more precisely, is hidden by those who desire control. There is always a veneer that the masses don’t see beyond, and it forms the reality that they operate off of and interact with. With important matters, things always seem to be the opposite… what appears to be white is actually black, what appears to be fiction is actually fact. (I’m a poet and I don’t know it.)

    It seems that major inflation or HI would be detrimental to TPTB. It would cause interest rates to rise and then there would be no chance of the US govmt being able to service its debt. Plus, all the “debt slaves” would be able to get out of debt by paying it off with cheaper dollars.

    Thus, inflation or HI—and the strategy of buying gold and silver, real estate and other tangibles to survive it—may be the veneer. What a perfect set up: Bernanke chases all savers out of savings accounts and treasuries and into the stock market, real estate and other risky investments (forcing them to take a risk to get a return and “protect their money from losing its purchasing power”) and also gets them more into debt with these “lowest mortgage rates in history” and “.99%, no down payment, 6 year loans on a new car” , etc…. and then WHAM! the deflation cycle starts to move fast and heavy and all assets go down in value to a LOW bottom. Those with assets and debt get creamed. Only those who saw through the veneer and stayed in cash are able to survive because in a deflation… CASH IS KING, because cash is scarce.

    The power elite now move in and scoop up the assets for pennies on the dollar and increase their net worth again for the umpteenth time.

    The best strategy may very well be to “be the bank”. Figure out the strategy of the power elite and do exactly what they are doing at the level you are capable of.

    Personally, I’m fully liquid, no gold or silver, no debt, continuing to streamline my living expenses, strengthening my health and immune system, building skills and businesses so I can exchange services for value no matter what the economic climate, and looking for a self-sufficient community to join.

    in reply to: Our Depraved Future of Debt Slavery (Part I) #924

    alfbell
    Member

    One point I forgot to mention. Just to show how illogical our government can be. It costs $80,000 per year to keep a person in prison! They get full dental and medical as well. Taxpayer’s money! Yet your average American is living on $30,000 per year!! Really makes sense. Just more government corruption, unworkability and fleecing of the taxpayer.

    in reply to: Our Depraved Future of Debt Slavery (Part I) #923

    alfbell
    Member

    How did those slaves live so long under those conditions? Amazing. We live affluent lives and don’t even make it 80!

    Besides my firm conviction that all but 3 people in Congress should be in jail for life and joined by all the big bankster and corporate criminals, I believe that…

    Everyone imprisoned for non-violent or non-serious or non-damaging crimes (in other words they are not true menaces to the society or sociopaths) should be released. Our societies real criminals that are in prison should be made to work 8 hours per day M-F. And the work should not be for private interests it should be for the public interest (road work, litter clean up, etc.). If they refuse to work they are just given the barest of essentials for living so that they die off fast. There should not be any “white collar” prisons for white collar criminals that have been very destructive… they should have to labor as well. Plus, no TV or recreation for ANY prisoner. All the benefits of freedom need to be gone. Then and only then would people think twice before committing a crime… the recidivist levels would drop. Bring back the chain gangs. Let’s get real and let’s get tough with the people that hurt us and our society and out country.

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