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Debt Rattle July 13 2025

Jul 132025
 
 July 13, 2025  Posted by at 9:21 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  49 Responses »


Paul Gauguin Road in Tahiti 1891

 

• Trump To Impose 30% Tariffs On Mexico, European Union (ZH)
• Tariff Windfall Drives Surprise $27 Billion US Budget Surplus in June (ET)
• US Lawmakers Move To Curb Trump’s Control Over Ukraine Aid (RT)
• Trump Sees Zelensky As ‘Primary Obstacle’ To Ukraine Peace – FT (RT)
• Trump Denies Coverup In Jeffrey Epstein Case (RT)
• Nvidia CEO Makes Pit Stop At White House Before China Trip (ZH)
• Why John Brennan Belongs in Prison (Harsanyi)
• The Democratic Party Civil War Just Escalated Big Time (Margolis)
• How Do You Solve a Problem Like Mamdani? Democrats Don’t Know (Caldwell)
• Americans Fighting For Ukraine Should Lose Citizenship – Tucker Carlson (RT)
• Tucker Carlson Reveals Who He Thinks Funded Jeffrey Epstein’s Crimes (VF)
• Ukraine To Receive German-funded Long-range Weapons This Month (RT)
• Baltic Sea Will Remain Common Despite NATO Fantasies – Russian Ambassador (Sp.)
• France Is Sweating Its Brains Out Thanks To The EU’s Climate Madness (Marsden)

 

 

Benz

Lacalle


https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1944150734406091037

Gaetz
https://twitter.com/MsKristaMonroe/status/1943896573844304013
https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1943722943860674593

Kirk

Miller

Scott

 

 

 

 

Has anyone seen a counterproposal from Europe? A dialogue even? Doesn’t that silence make them guilty by association?

• Trump To Impose 30% Tariffs On Mexico, European Union (ZH)

President Trump on Saturday morning fired off two trade warning letters via Truth Social, threatening to impose 30% tariffs on all Mexican and European imports starting August 1. The warning to Mexico hinges on action to curb the flow of fentanyl and dismantle drug cartels, while the threat to Europe demands an end to long-standing trade imbalances driven by EU tariffs and non-tariff barriers. This caps off a week of letters sent to America’s top trade partners, with tariff threats used as a negotiation tool by the Trump administration to seal deals.

“Despite our strong relationship, you will recall, the United States imposed Tariffs on Mexico to deal with our Nation’s Fentanyl crisis, which is caused, in part, by Mexico’s failure to stop the Cartels, who are made up of the most despicable people who ever walked the Earth, from pouring these drugs into our country,” Trump said in the letter addressed to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. He continued, “Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done, is not enough. Mexico still has not stopped the Cartels who are trying to turn all of North America into a Narco-Trafficking Playground.”

Here are the key points in the letter:
• 30% tariff will apply to all Mexican imports unless action is taken.
• Tariff waivers will be granted for companies that build or manufacture in the U.S.
• If Mexico raises tariffs in retaliation, the U.S. will match them on top of the 30%.
• Adjust tariffs if Mexico successfully confronts the cartels and halts fentanyl trafficking

The second letter by Trump was addressed to Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, in which he informed Brussels that he would impose a 30% tariff on all EU products starting August 1, unless long-standing trade imbalances—driven by EU tariffs and non-tariff barriers—are addressed. “The European Union, despite having one of our largest Trade Deficits with you. Nevertheless, we have decided to move forward, but only with more balanced and fair TRADE,” the president said.

He emphasized:
• The U.S. market is open and fair, but EU practices have created an unsustainable trade deficit.
• The 30% tariff applies separately from any sectoral tariffs and will be higher for goods transshipped to avoid it.
• No tariffs will be applied if EU companies manufacture within the U.S.
• The EU must allow full market access to the U.S. or face higher tariffs.
• Retaliatory EU tariffs will be met with additional levies.

Trump warned that this trade deficit with the EU is a “major threat to our Economy and, indeed, our National Security!”

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The tariffs story is almost everywhere presented in a negative light. There’s a flipside.

• Tariff Windfall Drives Surprise $27 Billion US Budget Surplus in June (ET)

New data from the Treasury Department show that surging tariff revenues in June helped the U.S. government post an unexpected budget surplus of $27 billion, offering a rare fiscal bright spot amid persistently high federal deficits and suggesting that President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are becoming a significant source of government revenue. After running a $316 billion deficit in May, the government recorded a surplus of just over $27 billion last month, according to data released on July 11 by the Treasury Department. The tariff windfall helped narrow the fiscal year-to-date deficit to $1.34 trillion—a slight 1 percent improvement from the same period last year. By contrast, June 2024 saw a $71 billion deficit. A key driver of the improved balance was a record-breaking surge in customs duties.

The Treasury data released on Friday show that tariff collections soared to $27 billion in June alone, pushing total tariff revenues since October to $108 billion—the highest ever recorded for the first nine months of a fiscal year. June’s haul marked a significant jump from May’s prior record of $22 billion and was about 93 percent higher than the $56 billion collected during the same nine-month span of the previous year. So far in July, customs duties have added another $2.4 billion to federal coffers, according to daily Treasury figures. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has predicted even higher tariff revenues in the months ahead. Speaking at a July 8 White House Cabinet meeting, he said the United States is on track to collect $300 billion by the end of calendar year 2025, noting that the “major” tariffs imposed under the Trump administration did not start until the second quarter.

https://twitter.com/TRUMP_ARMY_/status/1943691228291399938

Since returning to the White House for a second term, Trump has imposed 10 percent universal tariffs on trading partners, along with reciprocal tariffs announced in April on a number of nations, depending on the trade barriers they have with the United States. Trump initially applied a 90-day pause to most of the reciprocal tariffs, and later signed an executive order that extended the reprieve to Aug. 1. In recent days, the president sent letters to several countries—including Japan, South Korea, and Thailand—informing them that reciprocal tariffs ranging from 25 to 40 percent will be imposed after Aug. 1 unless they agree to reduce trade barriers and negotiate bilateral deals. Trump has said the higher duties will substantially boost government revenue.

“The big money will start coming in on Aug. 1st. I think it was made clear today by the letters that were sent out yesterday and today,” he said during the Cabinet meeting. Bessent also cited a June 4 report from the Congressional Budget Office projecting that tariff revenues could total $2.8 trillion over the next decade—a figure he said the administration believes is understated. Trump said he won’t extend the Aug. 1 deadline for countries to start paying reciprocal tariffs, signaling a firm stance after earlier suggesting flexibility for nations offering trade concessions.

In one recent round of letters, Trump announced new tariffs as follows: 25 percent on Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, South Korea, and Tunisia; 30 percent on Bosnia and Herzegovina and South Africa; 32 percent on Indonesia; 35 percent on Bangladesh and Serbia; 36 percent on Cambodia and Thailand; and 40 percent on Burma (also known as Myanmar) and Laos. In each letter, Trump noted that the tariffs might be lowered if countries open their markets and reduce non-tariff barriers, emphasizing that persistent trade deficits pose “a major threat” to U.S. economic and national security. More recently, Trump sent another round of letters, noting that Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka will each be charged a 30 percent tariff, Brunei and Moldova will face a 25 percent tariff, and the Philippines will face a 20 percent tariff. The president has also announced that Canada will face 35 percent tariffs starting on Aug. 1.

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War guarantee.

• US Lawmakers Move To Curb Trump’s Control Over Ukraine Aid (RT)

A bill authorizing more Ukraine aid and barring the Pentagon from unilaterally halting arms shipments has passed the Senate Armed Services Committee. The measures are part of the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the annual defense bill that outlines the Pentagon’s priorities and funding for the next fiscal year. The bill comes as tensions have risen between Congress and the White House over aid pauses earlier this year. In March, President Donald Trump temporarily halted all Ukraine assistance and intelligence sharing, while earlier this month, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth paused weapons deliveries, citing the need to review dwindling Pentagon stockpiles. Aid resumed earlier this week after Trump expressed frustration over delays in the peace process and said Ukraine needs weapons to “defend” itself.

Media reports later suggested Trump had not been informed of the latest suspension and struggled to explain whether he had approved it. The new NDAA draft was passed in a bipartisan vote this week. It “reaffirms” US support for Ukraine, extends aid through 2028, increases annual authorizations from $300 million to $500 million, and requires the Pentagon to continue intelligence support for Kiev, according to a summary released on Friday. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, however, said the bill also includes language blocking the Pentagon from halting aid or intelligence sharing without congressional approval. She noted that provisions listed in the bill “put guardrails” on the Trump administration “to make sure promised military assistance continues to flow to Ukraine.”

A separate version of the NDAA drafted by House Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers extends aid through 2028 but keeps it capped at $300 million per year. It also prohibits the Trump administration from halting funds without written justification to Congress and requires Hegseth to report regularly on support to Ukraine. The House committee will vote on its version on Tuesday. The bill must pass committee votes before being submitted for a full congressional vote. Ukraine has received nearly $115 billion in military, financial, and humanitarian US aid since its conflict with Russia escalated in February 2022. The military component of this sum has come through congressional bills such as the NDAA and the Presidential Drawdown Authority, a fund capped by Congress that allows the president to send US weapons directly to Kiev.

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So get rid of him instead of giving him weapons.

• Trump Sees Zelensky As ‘Primary Obstacle’ To Ukraine Peace – FT (RT)

US President Donald Trump continues to regard Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky as the main hurdle to resolving the conflict, despite his recent criticism of Moscow, the Financial Times reported on Saturday, citing sources. Speaking to journalists on Tuesday, Trump said he was “unhappy” with Putin, claiming the Russian leader did not want to end the conflict. “We get a lot of bullsh*t thrown at us by Putin,” Trump said. The US president added that while Putin was “very nice all the time,” it turned out to be “meaningless” for ending the fighting. Later, he announced a “major statement” on Russia soon amid reported discussions in Washington over imposing a 500% tariff on countries that buy Russian energy and goods.

However, two unnamed senior officials involved in defense and security talks with Washington told the FT that there was little indication the White House had actually adopted a more pro-Kiev stance. Ukraine’s backers, the report said, are “still assuming Trump was predisposed to seeing Putin as his main negotiating partner in any settlement and Zelensky as the primary obstacle to a workable peace deal.” One official pointed to “a little bit of overexcitement based on a shift in tone,” while cautioning that “we’re not seeing that translate into major actions.” The FT report echoes a New York Times article in June claiming that the US president is “exasperated” with both Putin and Zelensky, but “reserves special animosity” for the Ukrainian leader, viewing him as a “bad guy” pushing the world towards a global conflict.

In May, Trump openly criticized Zelensky, suggesting that “everything out of his mouth causes problems.” The fiercest public clash between the two came in February at the White House, when Trump accused Zelensky of ingratitude and “gambling with World War III.” Commenting on Trump’s remarks targeting Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia is “calm about this,” adding that “we are committed to continuing our dialogue with Washington and our policy of repairing the significantly damaged bilateral relations.” Russia maintains it is open to a diplomatic settlement of the Ukraine conflict, but in a way that would address its “root causes” and its security concerns. Moscow insists on Ukraine’s neutrality, recognition of the “territorial reality on the ground,” as well as demilitarization and denazification.

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Simple denials won’t work. See Pandora’s box.

• Trump Denies Coverup In Jeffrey Epstein Case (RT)

US President Donald Trump has pushed back against claims of a coverup in the Jeffrey Epstein case, defending his administration’s handling of the release of files related to the disgraced financier and convicted sex offender’s death in jail.nSome of Trump’s allies, including journalist Tucker Carlson and former adviser Steve Bannon, have criticized a report by the Department of Justice and the FBI, which found no evidence of a list of powerful individuals to whom Epstein trafficked underage girls. The report also found no signs of foul play in Epstein’s 2019 death at a Manhattan correctional facility, which was ruled a suicide. In a Truth Social post on Saturday, Trump claimed that the so-called Epstein Files were created by prominent Democrats, including former President Barack Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

“They created the Epstein Files, just like they created the FAKE Hillary Clinton/Christopher Steele Dossier that they used on me, and now my so-called ‘friends’ are playing right into their hands,” he wrote. “Why didn’t these Radical Left Lunatics release the Epstein Files? If there was ANYTHING in there that could have hurt the MAGA Movement, why didn’t they use it?” he added. Trump defended his Attorney General Pam Bondi and argued that federal agencies should instead focus on investigating Democrat-linked scandals and corruption, as well as the 2020 presidential election, which he continues to claim was rigged in favor of Joe Biden. “LET PAM BONDI DO HER JOB – SHE’S GREAT!” Trump wrote. He previously said that the Epstein case has been used to distract from more pressing issues, including the deadly floods in Texas.

FBI Director Kash Patel also dismissed the allegations. “The conspiracy theories just aren’t true, never have been,” he wrote on X. Critics have pointed to a minute-long gap in the surveillance footage outside Epstein’s cell on the night of his death, claiming the tape had been doctored. Bondi, however, denied that there was anything suspicious about the video. The debate surrounding the case has reportedly caused a rift within the government, with several news outlets claiming that FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino is considering resignation.

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“Also on Thursday, Nvidia became the first company to close a trading day with a market cap over $4 trillion… ”

• Nvidia CEO Makes Pit Stop At White House Before China Trip (ZH)

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump at the White House on Thursday, just days before a trip to China. The meeting comes as Nvidia—now the world’s most valuable chipmaker (and world’s most valuable company)—remains largely shut out of China’s semiconductor market due to U.S. export restrictions. While the conversation wasn’t disclosed, Huang likely focused on the urgent need to restore Nvidia’s ability to sell advanced AI chips in the world’s second-largest economy. CNBC’s Megan Cassella reported Thursday afternoon that Huang met with Trump. No details about the meeting were released, but the president praised Nvidia in a Truth Social post: “NVIDIA IS UP 47% SINCE TRUMP TARIFFS. USA is taking in Hundreds of Billions of Dollars in Tariffs”… “COUNTRY IS NOW ‘BACK.'”

Also on Thursday, Nvidia became the first company to close a trading day with a market cap over $4 trillion… This was a symbolic milestone for capital markets and the current bull cycle. In a separate report, Bloomberg noted that Huang’s White House visit comes just days before he is scheduled to travel to Beijing, where he will meet with senior Chinese officials and attend the International Supply Chain Expo. Huang has been vocal in recent months about the combined impact of the Biden-Harris regime and the Trump-Vance administration’s export restrictions on advanced AI chips to China. In May, he told investors, “The $50 billion China market is effectively closed to U.S. industry.”

However, the Trump team cancelled a planned rule by former President Joe Biden called the “AI diffusion rule,” promising fewer restrictions later this year on which countries could receive Nvidia’s advanced AI chips. “The world is right now hungry, anxious to engage AI,” Huang said, adding, “Let us get the American AI out in front of everybody right now.”

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“No, I’m not under the impression Brennan will end up in prison, where he likely belongs, or even see an indictment…”

• Why John Brennan Belongs in Prison (Harsanyi)

Former CIA Director John Brennan is one of the most contemptible and shady people in public life. Few people have abused their position, power, and access with such impunity and hubris. So, it was a pleasure to read a Fox News report that the FBI has launched a criminal investigation into Brennan, along with former FBI Director James Comey, for possible wrongdoing related to the Trump campaign-Russia collusion probe, including making false statements to Congress. No, I’m not under the impression Brennan will end up in prison, where he likely belongs, or even see an indictment. The statute of limitations has largely sunset. And even if they hadn’t, the notion there will be any reckoning is remote.

My modest hope is that perhaps a better accounting of his corruption for the historical record will destroy Brennan’s reputation forever, which shouldn’t be a heavy lift. Last week, CIA Director John Ratcliffe released a report on the origins of the Intelligence Community Assessment that concluded Russia had interfered in the 2016 election to help Donald Trump. It was more or less as one might have expected. One of the things we learned, however, was that Brennan claimed in 2017 testimony before Congress that the Steele dossier, an oppo doc paid for by Hillary Clinton and Democrats, wasn’t “in any way” used as a basis for the Intelligence Community Assessment. In a 2023 House interview, Brennan claimed the “CIA was very much opposed to having any reference or inclusion of the Steele Dossier in the Intelligence Community Assessment.”

The problem is that newly declassified CIA emails allegedly show Brennan not only repeatedly pressing for insertion of the Steele dossier’s claims but doing it over the objections of others. In one 2016 email, Brennan allegedly disregarded warnings from his deputy that the dossier would undermine “the credibility of the entire paper.” When two CIA mission center leaders responsible for Russia challenged him about integrating a poorly constructed partisan document into the Intelligence Community Assessment, Brennan overruled them, insisting: “My bottom line is that I believe that the information warrants inclusion in the report.” Now, there is always a chance that Ratcliffe’s report is skewed to make Brennan’s emails look more incriminating than they were. We’ll have to see. We already know that Brennan has for years lied about having insider knowledge of an unprecedented seditious criminal conspiracy against the United States.

When Robert Mueller’s investigation was unable to pull together a single indictment related to “collusion,” Brennan shrugged it off by saying that he may have “received bad information.”He hadn’t. “Trump is scared of me because I know too much about Russia’s election meddling,” Brennan would tell the press. When special counsel John Durham released his report on the origins of the FBI’s investigation of the “collusion” investigation, we learned that Brennan, despite spinning unhinged conspiratorial rants nightly on cable television, knew there was nothing there. Indeed, Durham reports that Brennan had admitted to investigators that there had been “no conspiracy.” Yet, as Durham points out, only days later, the former CIA director was on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” contending the opposite, using his former position to suggest there was still much to be divulged.

To understand what little regard Brennan had for truth or position, recall a 2020 email uncovered by the House Judiciary Committee. In it, former CIA Deputy Director Michael Morell, who was working with the Biden campaign to concoct “a talking point” to “push back on Trump” during the final presidential debates, asked Brennan to sign on to the infamous “disinformation” letter that claimed Hunter Biden’s laptop was a Russian plant. “Ok, Michael, add my name to the list. Good initiative. Thanks for asking me to sign on,” Brennan replied. That’s all it took for the former director of the CIA to sign his name onto a letter that would be the ostensive reason for a major story implicating a presidential candidate with corruption to be censored by virtually every legacy media outlet and major social media platform. One hopes his legacy will now be irreparably tarnished.

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“..the Democratic Socialists of America..” Doesn’t sound American to me.

“..The Democratic civil war is no longer a distant threat. It’s here, it’s ugly, and it’s escalating.”

• The Democratic Party Civil War Just Escalated Big Time (Margolis)

The Democratic Party’s internal fractures are no longer simmering beneath the surface—they’re erupting into open warfare. The latest salvo comes from within the party’s own ranks, as the far-left wing grows increasingly emboldened to challenge the establishment’s authority. What we’re witnessing is not just a disagreement over policy or tactics, but a full-blown civil war for the soul of the Democratic Party. Democratic Socialist allies of Zohran Mamdani are reportedly laying the groundwork for primary challenges against several incumbent congressional Democrats in New York City—potentially even targeting House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Following Zohran Mamdani’s primary win last month, the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) declared that “this movement is bigger than one person, election, city, or organization.”

“We encourage all people inspired by the Zohran campaign to join their local DSA or YDSA chapter and get involved so we can continue to fight alongside Zohran and DSA elected officials across the country to create the future we all deserve,” the group said in a statement. Now that message appears to be turning into action. DSA leaders are reportedly weighing primary challenges against several prominent House Democrats representing New York City—including Jeffries, as well as Reps. Ritchie Torres, Jerry Nadler, Dan Goldman, and Yvette Clarke. Jeffries, who two years ago succeeded longtime House Democratic leader and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, has been criticized by some of New York City’s far-left leaders as a moderate and establishment Democrat.

“His leadership has left a vacuum that organizations like DSA are filling. I think that is more important right now,” New York City’s Democratic Socialists of America chapter co-chair Gustavo Gordillo told CNN. Democratic socialist state Sen. Jabari Brisport, whose district includes some of the same areas of Brooklyn as Jeffries House district, argued in a statement to Fox News that the longtime congressman is “rapidly growing out of touch with an insurgent and growing progressive base within his own district that he should pay more attention to.” Top Hakeem Jeffries adviser Andre Richardson is sounding the alarm over rumblings of a left-wing primary challenge, lashing out at the Democratic Socialists circling Jeffries’ seat. “Our response will be forceful and unrelenting. We will teach them and all of their incumbents a painful lesson on June 23, 2026.”

Jeffries, for his part, feigned ignorance about the whole thing. “I have no idea what these people are talking about,” he told CNN, before pivoting to the usual script about “pushing back against extremism”—as if the radicals threatening to take his job aren’t in his own party. Despite praising Zohran Mamdani’s far-left campaign and defending him from Trump’s criticism, Jeffries, along with Gov. Kathy Hochul and Sen. Chuck Schumer, has stopped short of endorsing the DSA-backed Democratic nominee for mayor. That’s probably not a coincidence. What’s truly astonishing is the Democratic leadership’s inability—or unwillingness—to confront this rebellion head-on. Instead of standing up to the radicals, too many establishment figures are cowering in fear, hoping the storm will pass.

But appeasement only emboldens the insurgents. Every time a figure like Mamdani gets away with slandering party leaders, the fringe left grows stronger and more brazen. If the Democratic Party continues down this path, the results will be catastrophic for them… which make is so enjoyable to watch. A party consumed by internal warfare cannot hope to govern, let alone offer a compelling alternative to the opposition. The radicals may think they’re winning, but in reality, they’re burning down the very house they claim to want to lead. The Democratic civil war is no longer a distant threat. It’s here, it’s ugly, and it’s escalating. The question now is whether any adults are left in the room to stop the madness before it’s too late.

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In one extreme blue pocket, they manage to get an extreme candidate elected. And then draw the conclusion they should do that all over the country.

• How Do You Solve a Problem Like Mamdani? Democrats Don’t Know (Caldwell)

The meteoric rise of New York City Democrat mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani poses a major question for Washington Democrats—is his brand of Palestinian activism, economic interventionism, and pro-LGBTQ+ rhetoric the future of their party? The 33-year-old state assemblyman’s trouncing of former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the city’s party primary has brought to light a host of controversial positions: supporting taxpayer-funded transgender surgeries on his campaign website, proposing government-run grocery stores, and refusing to condemn the phrase “globalize the intifada,” among other things. Asked how he views a candidate who does not condemn phrases which many consider genocidal, Ken Martin, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, chose a live-and-let-live approach.

“There’s no candidate in this party that I agree 100% of the time with,” he replied. “To be honest with you, there’s things that I don’t agree with Mamdani that he said. But at the end of the day, I always believe … that you win through addition, you win by bringing people into your coalition. We have conservative Democrats, we have centrist Democrats, we have labor progressives like me, and we have this new Democrat, which is the leftist.” But what works in New York City might not work in the swing districts and swing states that decide who has power in Washington. But Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., who has consistently supported Israel, said of Mamdani, “Everything that I’ve read on him, I don’t really agree with virtually any of it politically. So that’s just where I’m at as a Democrat. I mean, he’s not even a Democrat, honestly.”

Fetterman, much like swing-state Democrat Sens. Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, has generally chosen moderated rhetoric over doubling down on progressive rhetoric since Republican President Donald Trump’s victory in November. Slotkin, asked shortly after Mamdani’s mayoral primary victory how she interpreted the development, chose to focus on Mamdani’s cost-of-living proposals, while shying away from commenting on his more controversial platform planks.“People, just like in November, are still really focused on costs and the economy, and their own kitchen table math, and they’re looking for a new generation of leadership,” Slotkin said, adding, “It reinforces that you may disagree on some key issues, but understanding that people are concerned about their family budget, that is a unifying thing for a coalition.”

Slotkin, who narrowly won her Michigan Senate seat in November by just over 19,000 votes out of more than 5.57 million cast, or 48.6% to 48.3%, emphasized economic issues throughout her campaign and warned as early as September 2024 that the Democrats’ presidential candidate, then-Vice President Kamala Harris, was “underwater in our polling.” For now at least, Democrats in Washington appear to not know what to do with Mamdani. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., has still not endorsed Mamdani, despite his primary win. When asked, he consistently chooses to mention Mamdani’s proposals to address the high cost of living in New York City. Jeffries has applied a bit of pushback against Mamdani’s rhetoric on the Israel-Hamas war, though, particularly his repeated refusals to condemn “globalize the intifada.”

“‘Globalizing the intifada,’ by the way of example, is not an acceptable phrase, and he’s going to have to clarify his position on that,” Jeffries said after Mamdani’s victory. “With respect to the Jewish communities that I represent, I think our nominee is going to have to convince folks that he is prepared to aggressively address the rise in antisemitism in the city of New York.” It remains to be seen how Mamdani’s rise as a national face of the Democratic Party will affect Democrats’ chances outside of their dark-blue urban centers of support. Democrats are seeking Senate seat pickups in 2026, for example, in states such as Maine and North Carolina—far removed from New York. Vice President JD Vance has accused Mamdani of creating a coalition of “downwardly mobile, college-educated people” and carved-out ethnic blocs by pandering to shared hatreds.

“That’s an interesting coalition. Maybe it works in the New York Democratic primary. I don’t think it works in the United States at large,” the vice president said in a July 5 speech in San Diego. Rural America and moderate voters appear to be the target for Democrats going into the midterms. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is now running ads against GOP incumbents such as Rep. Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin and Rob Bresnahan of Pennsylvania, accusing them of attacking rural hospitals with the recently passed Republican budget reconciliation bill’s restructuring of Medicaid. Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., is also trying to appeal to moderate voters ahead of a difficult 2026 reelection campaign. As Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” was considered, he joined just three other Democrat senators to vote for an amendment to the bill that would have discouraged states from issuing Medicaid payments to illegal immigrants. That’s a far cry from Mamdani who has openly called for “standing up for our sanctuary city policies” in New York City.

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Any foreign countrry. Including Israel.

• Americans Fighting For Ukraine Should Lose Citizenship – Tucker Carlson (RT)

Americans who fight for other countries, including Ukraine and Israel, should be stripped of their US citizenship, journalist Tucker Carlson has argued. Speaking at a conservative conference in Tampa, Florida called Turning Point USA on Friday, Carlson was asked whether he believes US nationals can pledge allegiance to two countries at once. The former Fox News categorically denied the notion of double loyalty. “I think anybody… who serves in a foreign military should lose his citizenship immediately. There are a lot of Americans who’ve served in the IDF, they should lose their citizenship. There’s a lot of Americans who’ve served in Ukraine and they should lose their citizenship. You can’t fight for another country and remain an American. Period.”

He added that common sense dictates that “no man can serve two masters.” “You can only really pledge your loyalty to one person or one country,” he added. Under US law, there are no automatic penalties for serving in a foreign military. The US has never signed the 1989 UN Mercenary Convention, which aims to ban the recruitment, use, financing, and training of mercenaries. However, since the late 19th century, the US government has been prohibited from employing organizations that offer “quasi-military armed forces for hire,” meaning it cannot use the services of private military contractors such as Blackwater. Carlson’s remarks come after CNN reported in January that more than 20 US citizens had been reported missing in action in Ukraine.

In late 2024, Russian officials reported that around 6,500 out of 15,000 foreign mercenaries who had arrived in Ukraine had been killed. In recent months, several US citizens have been convicted in absentia in Russia for what are described as mercenary activity and “terrorist acts” in Russia’s Kursk Region, where a now-defeated Ukrainian incursion was launched last year. In May, Aleksandr Bastrykin, the head of Russia’s Investigative Committee, said that a total of 902 individuals had been charged with engaging in mercenary activity. Courts have delivered guilty verdicts against 97 mercenaries from 26 countries. Moscow has repeatedly warned that it treats foreign mercenaries fighting for Ukraine as legitimate targets.

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“..it’s extremely obvious to anyone who watches that this guy had direct connections to a foreign government. Now, no one’s allowed to say that that foreign government is ISRAEL ..”

• Tucker Carlson Reveals Who He Thinks Funded Jeffrey Epstein’s Crimes (VF)

Just this Friday night, Tucker Carlson named who he believes really FUNDED Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes. What he said is guaranteed to make many in Washington furious. And there’s no taking it back now. On Tuesday, Tucker Carlson delivered two theories on why Pam Bondi won’t release the Epstein Files. Theory #1 was “Trump is involved.” But Carlson thought this explanation was not very likely. Then came Theory #2, which was that Carlson believed “intel services are at the very center of this story—US and Israeli—and they’re being protected.” “I think that seems like the most plausible explanation,” Carlson said. “And we have every right to ask on whose behalf was he working? How does a guy go from being a math teacher at the Dalton School in the late 70s with no college degree to having multiple airplanes, a private island, and the largest residential house in Manhattan? Where did all the money come from?” Carlson asked.

https://twitter.com/goddeketal/status/1943857723658940431

Then came the big claim. “And no one has ever gotten to the bottom of that because no one has ever tried. And moreover, it’s extremely obvious to anyone who watches that this guy had direct connections to a foreign government. Now, no one’s allowed to say that that foreign government is ISRAEL because we have been somehow cowed into thinking that that’s naughty,” Carlson said. “There is nothing wrong with saying that,” Carlson continued. “There is nothing hateful about saying that. There’s nothing anti-Semitic about saying. There’s nothing even anti-Israel about saying that.” Someone who agrees with Carlson’s assessment is CIA whistleblower John Kiriakou. On Wednesday, he told the story of the recruitment of a copy machine repairman who earned his CIA operational officer a big promotion.

At first, Kiriakou laughed at the notion of a copy machine repairman being useful, but then he realized the brilliance of the plan when he learned that the repairman secretly sent every document from a prime minister’s office straight to the CIA. How did he do it? By planting a tiny device on the copy machine. This flow of information was pure leverage for the CIA: “You know what they’re thinking. You know their next move. You know who their enemies are and who their allies are. Maybe it’s their position on trade negotiations. Maybe the prime minister has a health problem you need to plan for. You never know what might come through,” Kiriakou explained. “That ONE critical nugget is all it takes.”

That, he says, is EXACTLY what Epstein was to Israeli intelligence: someone with access (like the copy machine repairman) who quietly delivered leverage on the world’s elite. Back to Carlson. He addressed the claims that he’s taking money from the Qatari government head-on. What was his reaction to this claim? He literally laughed out loud. “Maybe I was taking tons of money from some bad country. One of the bad countries you’re not allowed to talk about or like—Qatar!” Carlson said before bursting into laughter. “That’s the most hilarious [claim]. Qatar is kind of controlling our conversation. Qatar. Evil Qatar,” he mocked.

An audience member asked if Carlson was laughing, and he confirmed, “I am laughing.” “I’ve actually been to Qatar. It’s awesome. Never taken a dollar from the Qataris or the Qataris or whatever they’re called. Great country. But even if I was, like, on the payroll of Qatar, which I guess I’m like—I can’t now. But even if I was [taking money], it still wouldn’t make the question any less relevant. Why is this [war with Iran] a good idea?” Carlson asked. “And their refusal to answer that question lets you know right away that you are not dealing with a person of good faith. You’re dealing with a propagandist who is trying to control you.” What’s your take on Carlson’s claim about Israeli intelligence? Is he exposing an uncomfortable truth, or is he chasing attention and controversy?

Read more …

“..Dmitry Peskov accused Germany of “competing with France in primacy for stoking the war..”

• Ukraine To Receive German-funded Long-range Weapons This Month (RT)

Ukraine will receive its first batch of long-range missiles financed by Germany by the end of July, a top German general has said, acknowledging that Kiev’s battlefield situation is deteriorating. In an interview with ZDF, Major General Christian Freuding, who oversees the coordination of Berlin’s military support for Kiev, said Germany is “ready to make these weapons systems available.” Ukraine will receive the weapons “by the end of this month,” Freuding stated, adding that they will arrive “in high three-digit numbers.” He did not specify which missiles will be delivered or what their range is. ”We need weapons systems that can reach deep into Russian territory and attack depots, command facilities, airfields, and aircraft,” Freuding said.

He went on to say the deliveries stem from a contract between Ukraine’s Defense Ministry and its domestic weapons industry, backed by German funding secured in late May. Freuding stressed that Germany is not providing Kiev with long-range Taurus missiles with a range of 500km. Despite Ukraine’s pleas, Berlin has been reluctant to approve deliveries, arguing that doing so could escalate the hostilities and draw Germany into the conflict. He acknowledged that Ukraine is facing mounting battlefield challenges, noting that Russia is making “small but steady” gains, forcing Ukrainian units to retreat to deeper defensive lines. In the air, the situation has “worsened in recent weeks,” he said, citing a single night when Kiev came under an attack involving more than 700 drones and dozens of missiles.

The Russian Defense Ministry has said it only attacks military-related facilities and never targets civilians. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed support in late May for developing Ukraine’s own long-range weapons. He said that while Kiev will receive German financial backing to procure these systems, it will not face restrictions on how it uses them. Russia has warned against Western military aid to Ukraine, saying it will only prolong the conflict without changing the outcome. Responding to Merz’s announcement, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused Germany of “competing with France in primacy for stoking the war,” warning that these moves hinder peace efforts. He added that supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine would bring an “inevitable escalation.”

Read more …

Will anyone open fire?

• Baltic Sea Will Remain Common Despite NATO Fantasies – Russian Ambassador (Sp.)

The Baltic Sea will remain a common space for all regional states, no matter what NATO countries “fantasize” about, Russian Ambassador to Denmark Vladimir Barbin said in an interview with Sputnik. “Whatever the alliance’s countries fantasize about, the Baltic Sea was, remains and will be a common space for all states in the region without exception,” Barbin said. He said the course chosen by Denmark and NATO countries to militarize the Baltic Sea region has no future. The ambassador said the increase in military activity does not delay, but increases the risk of a conflict, especially in the absence of direct dialogue and mutual trust between Russia and NATO.

Read more …

Overwhelming idea: You’re guilty so you don’t deserve A/C.

“Like the outdated idea that every woman should anchor her existence around a husband and kids, the anti-A/C dogma should stop where logic and personal freedom begin..”

• France Is Sweating Its Brains Out Thanks To The EU’s Climate Madness (Marsden)

Paris was melting last week, flirting with 40°C and zero chill. Apparently, the moment was ripe for an epiphany. I was in an Uber, as one does when public transport becomes a slow cooker. I always enjoy chatting with the driver – usually Algerian or Moroccan. We got to talking about our lives and what led us to France. At one point he looked at me and said, “No husband, no kids, and you have air conditioning! You’re totally cheating at life!” “Cheating,” huh? Interesting word choice. So opting out of the standard life script is breaking the rules? But whose rules? The ones written by the establishment – whichever power structure has successfully colonized your brain.

I was fortunate to have been raised by parents who believed in free thought, not groupthink, and who told me that you should be able to do anything you want with your life as long as you’re not harming others. Which is a long way of saying that if I want to crank the A/C during a heatwave in my own home, it’s nobody’s business. Especially not that of some guy in the front seat of a Peugeot who thinks that I’ve short-circuited the Matrix. But the fact that he grouped air conditioning with not having kids or a man says a lot. It’s not just cultural expectations, but also the deep programming of state-sanctioned virtue that has come to dominate cultural norms. And in France, one of the strangest markers of virtue is rejecting modern cooling technology.

The week was so blisteringly hot that the French government anticipated shutting down 1,350 schools so kids could sweat it out at home instead of in class. Even the local public swimming pool had to close – the one place that usually offers relief – because the deck hit 50°C and the water was bathtub temperature. Instead, the French spent the day playing what I call the “Blinds and Windows Game.” Open everything in the morning. Close it all when the heat starts. Pull the blinds down just right so the sun hits the metal outside instead of the window glass. I opted out. I’ve got better things to do than play around with my window coverings. So I turned on the air conditioning.

My neighbors were not fans. I’ve had a mob of French residents of my building bang on my door demanding that I turn it off. Why? Because they spotted the portable A/C exhaust tubes poking out my window. Having ignored them, I later received a formal letter with instructions on when I was allowed to use it. According to them, that would only be when they collectively decide that the temperature justifies it – and only during certain hours. “For the well being of everyone,” they wrote, before launching into a sermon about how A/C is bad for the environment and ruins it for everyone else.

Give me a break. This is a country powered by decarbonized nuclear energy, so the climate change excuse doesn’t work here. But even without that, they invent new reasons: It causes “thermal shock.” It gives you neck spasms. It’s “unnatural air.” It’ll make you sick… Like the outdated idea that every woman should anchor her existence around a husband and kids, the anti-A/C dogma should stop where logic and personal freedom begin. No, gyms shouldn’t be set to 26°C in the summer because some guy wants to do five squats and scroll on his phone without feeling “chilly” during a heatwave. You shouldn’t be sweating through your clothes at the movies. And hospitals and nursing homes shouldn’t feel like a slow death in a convection oven.

But the moment far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen suggested a “grand plan for air conditioning” a few days ago, the narrative defenders of the establishment status quo promptly lost it. “Air conditioning saves lives. Letting people die in hospitals, or letting children or vulnerable people suffer because there is no air conditioning, is completely absurd,” Le Pen said in the National Assembly. The opposition Ecologists’ national secretary Marine Tondelier shot back that “air conditioning won’t suffice.” Guess they’re still hoping to lower the Earth’s thermostat manually. Since they’re clearly failing, despite all the lifestyle sacrifices they’ve extracted from us, maybe we could at least normalize cooling the rooms we actually live in.

Apparently not. France’s Ecological Transition Minister, Agnès Pannier-Runacher of Macron’s Renaissance party, said that it was okay to “air condition vulnerable people” but “not everywhere.” Because “global warming.” Oh, please. Go yell at your German Green pals from the last coalition government, that had to fire up coal plants that dump filth into Europe’s air, all because their sacred renewables can’t carry the load.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

Autism
https://twitter.com/Censored4sure/status/1943754763062952419

https://twitter.com/SimonDixonTwitt/status/1943769455567548819
https://twitter.com/AlpacaAurelius/status/1943753190295711921

Parrots

Leopard
https://twitter.com/buitengebieden/status/1943917020208091433

Emanuel
https://twitter.com/DrClownPhD/status/1943792667160457554

 

 

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Debt Rattle April 15 2020

Apr 152020
 
 April 15, 2020  Posted by at 10:46 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , ,  26 Responses »


Harris&Ewing National Press Club Building newssstand, Washington DC 1940

 

• First, The People Die; Then, The Stories (Rusty Guinn)
• Trump Announces ‘Halt’ In US Funding To WHO Amid Pandemic (USAT)
• WHO Urges China To Close ‘Dangerous’ Wet Market As Stalls In Wuhan Reopen (Ind.)
• COVID19 Twice As Contagious As Previously Thought – Los Alamos Lab (SCMP)
• New Coronavirus Outbreak Hotspots Emerging Across US (SCMP)
• Universal Screening for COVID19 in NY Women Admitted for Delivery (NEJM)
• New Zealand PM, Ministers Take 20% Pay Cut For Six Months (R.)
• Chinese Study Suggests Airco Helps Spread Coronavirus (SCMP)
• The Next Stage Must Be To Let The Virus Spread (AFR)
• California Meat Factory Workers Strike For Right To Be Tested (CN)
• California Governor Newsom Says Mass Gatherings Unlikely Through Summer (R.)
• South Korea Holds Parliamentary Election Under Strict Safety Measures (R.)
• UK Government Loans Not Reaching Businesses (Sky)
• US Military Says Coronavirus Likely Occurred Naturally But Not Certain (R.)
• Iraq Suspends Reuters For Three Months Over Report On Coronavirus Cases (R.)
• Trump Oil Deal Raises Question For Mexico: At What Cost? (R.)
• GOP Senator Aims To Release Hunter Biden Investigation Report This Summer (NYP)

 

 

• Past day: U.S. reports 26,540 new cases of coronavirus and 2,384 new deaths.
– Yesterday it had 27,243 new cases and 1,555 new deaths.
– Total: 608,458 cases and 25,992 deaths.

• New York adds over 3,700 deaths, of people who were never tested but are now presumed to have died from corona. Similar ‘recounts’ occur in multiple countries

• Coronavirus update, Americas:
– USA: 26,540 new cases
– Brazil: 1,509 new cases
– Canada: 1,383 new cases
– Peru: 519 new cases
– Chile: 392 new cases
– Mexico: 385 new cases
– Colombia: 127 new cases
– Dom Rep: 119 new cases
– Panama: 102 new cases
– Ecuador: 74 new cases

 

 

• Cases 2,014,000 (+ 79,872 from yesterday’s 1,934,128)

• Deaths 127,592 (+ 7,155 from yesterday’s 120,437)

 

 

 

From Worldometer yesterday evening -before their day’s close-

 

 

From Worldometer – NOTE: mortality rate for closed cases is at 21% !-

 

 

From SCMP:

 

 

From COVID19Info.live: (Note: this indicates 6090 new US deaths, that can’t be true)

 

 

 

 

On Ben Hunt’s Epsilon Theory website, Rusty Guinn does an very extensive overview of who failed where: WHO, FDA, CDC, Universities, Media, Boards, Wall Street, Congress, Donald Trump.

There goes your afternoon.

• First, The People Die; Then, The Stories (Rusty Guinn)

The first World War was bloody and vicious. By its end, it had taken the lives of more than 20 million people. That number a few times over perished in the Spanish Flu that followed in its wake. It is a story that has been retold a lot lately. There were other casualties of the Great War, too. The narratives of a protective ruling class across Europe. Fervent embrace of trade and economic models based on colonialism and imperialism. Oligarchies and monarchies, yes, but belief in the capacity of oligarchies and monarchies to act benevolently and competently in the defense of the people, too. First, the people die; then, the stories.

The human toll of COVID-19 is unlikely to approach even a mean fraction of the pain visited on humanity in the first quarter of the 20th century. But what about the stories we tell about our global institutions, our shared values, and our own orthodoxies and authorities? Those stories are dying. They are dying because the institutions built on those stories failed us all, and all at once. First, the people die; then, the stories. The failures of these institutions were not simple mistakes, evidence of wrongness of one kind or another. The failures of these institutions were failures of narrative, devastating revelations of each institution’s fundamental inability to do what they said they would do. Revelations that their purpose was something other than the story they told about themselves.

In various ways they each held power over us through those stories, told using the language of our needs and values and beliefs. In a single event, the world proved those stories false on their faces. Whether we allow the world-as-it-is that was revealed by COVID-19 to change our commitment to these institutions and ideas is up to us; this is a time in which the world may be reshaped. In the past month and for the first time in most of our lives, each of us looked around and knew that everyone else had seen the same thing. We saw the emperors of our world standing naked as the day they were born. If the ravages of war and disease are humanity’s birthright, so too is the opportunity that comes along ever so rarely to seize something different. Something better.

Read more …

I found it hard to find coverage of this that did not immediatedly and extensively point to Trump’s own failings. But whatever those may be, they say little to nothing about the WHO’s failings. Can’t we keep these issues separate anymore?

• Trump Announces ‘Halt’ In US Funding To WHO Amid Pandemic (USAT)

President Donald Trump said Tuesday his administration will “halt” U.S. funding to the World Health Organization as it conducts a review of the global organization’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. “We have deep concerns about whether America’s generosity has been put to the best use possible,” the president said in a Rose Garden press conference. “The reality is that the WHO failed to adequately obtain, vet and share information in a timely and transparent fashion.” Trump has accused the organization of not moving quickly enough to sound the alarm over COVID-19 and of being too China friendly. He has attacked the agency for advising the U.S. against banning travel from China to other parts of the world amid the outbreak.

“And the World – WHO – World Health got it wrong,” the president told reporters at the White House last week. “I mean, they got it very wrong. In many ways, they were wrong. They also minimized the threat very strongly and – not good.” Trump has previously said he was considering cutting WHO funding, but on Tuesday he accused the organization of “severely mismanaging and covering up” the spread of the coronavirus after the initial outbreak in Wuhan,China. The U.S. paid $893 million to the WHO during its two-year budget window, according to the organization’s website. That money represents about 15% of the WHO’s budget. Established in 1948, the WHO is an autonomous organization that works with the United Nations and is considered part of the U.N. system.

During Tuesday’s briefing, the president asked whether it was appropriate to freeze WHO’s funding in the middle of a pandemic that has claimed more than 125,000 lives worldwide with over 2 million cases confirmed, according to Johns Hopkins University data. “This is an evaluation period, but in the meantime, we’re putting a hold on all funds going to World Health,” Trump said. Trump said the review would last between 60 and 90 days. He said the administration would “channel” the money into other areas to combat the coronavirus outbreak, but declined to provide any specifics.

Read more …

What have they said about this since December, or in the past 10 years, for that matter?

• WHO Urges China To Close ‘Dangerous’ Wet Market As Stalls In Wuhan Reopen (Ind.)

The World Health Organisation is urging countries across the world to close “dangerous” wet markets amid warnings about the risks posed by environments where humans are in close contact with animals. Wet markets in Wuhan, the city where the coronavirus outbreak first emerged, have begun to reopen following the lifting of lockdown restrictions. This move comes despite the virus being linked to the city’s Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. But WHO, as well as other public health organisations and campaigners, have said the markets pose a “real danger” as pathogens can spread easily and quickly from animals to humans. Dr David Nabarro, a WHO special envoy on Covid-19 and special representative of the United Nations secretary general for food security and nutrition, said the world health body “pleads with governments and just about everybody” to be respectful of how viruses from the animal kingdom are rife.


Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Dr Nabarro said while WHO is not able to tell governments what to do, their advice is to close wet markets. He replied: “You know how WHO and other parts of the international system work – we don’t have the capacity to police the world. Instead, what we have to do is offer advice and guidance, and there’s very clear advice from the Food and Agriculture Organisation and WHO that said there are real dangers in these kinds of environments. “75 per cent of emerging infections come from the animal kingdom. It’s partly the markets, but it’s also other places where humans and animals are in close contact. Just make absolutely certain that you’re not creating opportunities for viral spread,” added Dr Nabarro.

Read more …

To add to the long list of what is still not known about the virus. Epidemiology may not be very useful at this point.

• COVID19 Twice As Contagious As Previously Thought – Los Alamos Lab (SCMP)

The new coronavirus could have been twice as contagious as previously thought when it spread from its initial epicentre in central China, a fresh look at the early stages of the outbreak has suggested. Epidemiologists had previously estimated that each person with Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, infected two to three people on average, based on early cases in the city of Wuhan. But researchers in the United States have said that the chaos in Wuhan as infections there rose at the start of the year may have produced incomplete data and a distorted picture. The new estimation by Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico is that those who carried the coronavirus in Wuhan were passing it on to 5.7 people on average. The finding could help public health experts to refine their containment and vaccination strategies.

In their study, published last week in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, the researchers, led by Steven Sanche and Lin Yen-ting, wrote: “Unavailability of diagnostic reagents early in the outbreak, changes in surveillance intensity and case definitions, and overwhelmed health care systems confound estimates of the growth of the outbreak based on data.” The Los Alamos research analysed about 140 early patients outside Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital, to project how intensely the coronavirus was spreading from the epicentre. Most of the initial cases in other provinces had epidemiological links or exposure to Wuhan. “By the time cases were confirmed in provinces outside Hubei, all of the provinces of China had access to diagnostic kits and were engaging in active surveillance of travellers out of Wuhan,” the researchers said.

“The health care systems outside Hubei were not yet overwhelmed with cases and were actively searching for [their] first positive case, leading to much lower bias in the reporting.” Many provinces’ health commission or local Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) would also release basic epidemiological information on how each patient could have been related to another, or where they had shared exposure. The US researchers also used mobile phone data to estimate the numbers of daily travellers in and out of Wuhan. Their projection was then compared back with the death rate pattern in Wuhan, which was more clearly defined and consistent than the city’s other data on the outbreak. They found that instead of taking six to seven days for the number of infected people to double, as was previously thought, it took only 2.3 to 3.3 days to do so.

[..] In late January, researchers from mainland China and Hong Kong, including China CDC chief George Gao, had estimated that a Covid-19 patient could infect an average of 2.2 people, based on studying 425 patients in Wuhan. A more recent estimate of this reproduction number, by Imperial College London last month, found the figure for 11 European countries including Britain to be 3.87 people. Also last month, research at Payame Noor University in Tehran, which was subject to peer review, found that an average of 4.86 people could be infected per patient in the first week of the outbreak in Iran.

[..] The authors of the new Los Alamos study added that a higher level of infectiousness meant that if asymptomatic carriers accounted for a substantial proportion of transmission, then quarantine and tracing of contacts of those showing symptoms would not be enough to halt the virus’ spread. “When 20 per cent of transmission is driven by unidentified infected persons, high levels of social distancing efforts will be needed to contain the virus,” they said. “The decline in newly confirmed cases in [mainland] China and South Korea in March 2020 and the stably low incidences in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, strongly suggest that the spread of the virus can be contained with early and appropriate measures.”

Read more …

Reached a peak? I doubt it.

• New Coronavirus Outbreak Hotspots Emerging Across US (SCMP)

As infection rates begin to level out in New York and California finds success in flattening the curve, other states across the US are starting to reel as their coronavirus numbers spike in communities large and small. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo warned three weeks ago that his state was “the canary in the coal mine” presaging outbreaks around the country, and some now fear the worst is only starting to come. According to The New York Times, while half of the 10 US counties with the highest amount of coronavirus infections per residents remain in New York, the second highest per capita infection rate is in Blaine County, Idaho, in the intermountain West.

Home to fewer than 22,000 people, the county is best known for the Sun Valley ski resort, which draw a steady stream of skiers, outdoor recreation enthusiasts and owners of second homes from across the country – and is now making headlines for a coronavirus infection rate that is one of the highest in the world. In fact, as of Tuesday one of the largest single coronavirus clusters in the country was in the sparsely populated Great Plains state of South Dakota, where more than 300 workers at a giant pork-processing plant in Sioux Falls became sick with the virus over the weekend. While the total number of cases can seem more alarming in larger cities, for smaller towns the virus can be especially devastating both to their already overtaxed health care systems and fragile local economies.

Many smaller towns are kept afloat by only a few major employers, and when they close the effects can be catastrophic. In the south, Louisiana has been especially hard-hit, with Orleans Parish, home to New Orleans, battling the eighth largest degree of infection in the nation. Three relatively rural counties in Georgia make up the rest of the top 10 counties list — a clear reminder that not only large urban areas are at risk. While there is evidence that the rate of new cases and deaths is flattening out in Louisiana, the reality on the ground remains daunting. On Tuesday, the state health department reported 884 deaths and 21,016 positive cases across the state, with the virus now present in every one of Louisiana’s 64 parishes.

New Orleans alone has had 5,718 cases, and 244 deaths — with the contagion thought to have initially spread during the city’s Mardi Gras celebration in late February. Georgia, too, is reeling, with 14,223 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 501 deaths, with most of the deaths, 71, coming from Dougherty County, which has fewer than 100,000 people.


‘Welcome to Wuhan’ is spray-painted on a bridge in Highland Park, Michigan. Photo- AP

Read more …

Infected pregnant women is a scary idea. “Maybe third trimester immunosuppression has a role to play.”

• Universal Screening for COVID19 in NY Women Admitted for Delivery (NEJM)

Between March 22 and April 4, 2020, a total of 215 pregnant women delivered infants at the New York–Presbyterian Allen Hospital and Columbia University Irving Medical Center . All the women were screened on admission for symptoms of Covid-19. Four women (1.9%) had fever or other symptoms of Covid-19 on admission, and all 4 women tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Of the 211 women without symptoms, all were afebrile on admission. Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from 210 of the 211 women (99.5%) who did not have symptoms of Covid-19; of these women, 29 (13.7%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Thus, 29 of the 33 patients who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 at admission (87.9%) had no symptoms of Covid-19 at presentation.

Of the 29 women who had been asymptomatic but who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 on admission, fever developed in 3 (10%) before postpartum discharge (median length of stay, 2 days). Two of these patients received antibiotics for presumed endomyometritis (although 1 patient did not have localizing symptoms), and 1 patient was presumed to be febrile due to Covid-19 and received supportive care. One patient with a swab that was negative for SARS-CoV-2 on admission became symptomatic postpartum; repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing 3 days after the initial test was positive.


Our use of universal SARS-CoV-2 testing in all pregnant patients presenting for delivery revealed that at this point in the pandemic in New York City, most of the patients who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 at delivery were asymptomatic, and more than one of eight asymptomatic patients who were admitted to the labor and delivery unit were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Although this prevalence has limited generalizability to geographic regions with lower rates of infection, it underscores the risk of Covid-19 among asymptomatic obstetrical patients. Moreover, the true prevalence of infection may be underreported because of false negative results of tests to detect SARS-CoV-2.

Read more …

Commendable, but in reality this is what every government should do, and 20% is not so much.

• New Zealand PM, Ministers Take 20% Pay Cut For Six Months (R.)

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, ministers in her government and public service chief executives will take a 20% pay cut for the next six months amid the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. New Zealand’s offices, schools and non-essential services have been closed for the last three weeks, and economic activity is at a standstill as the country undertakes one of the strictest lockdowns globally. The government has forecast joblessness to surge because of the global and domestic slowdown.


“This is where we can take action and that is why we have,” Ardern said in a news conference announcing the decision. “We acknowledge New Zealanders who are reliant on wage subsides, taking a pay cut, and losing their jobs as a result of the global pandemic,” she added. New Zealand on Wednesday recorded 20 new cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, bringing the total number of cases to 1,386. It has recorded nine deaths so far.

Read more …

Let summer begin!

• Chinese Study Suggests Airco Helps Spread Coronavirus (SCMP)

A study of 10 coronavirus cases from three families who dined at the same restaurant in southern China has suggested that air conditioning aided droplet transmission between them. “Strong airflow from the air conditioner could have propagated droplets” between three tables, according to the report of the research, based on the infections in the city of Guangzhou in late January. Droplet transmission alone could not explain the infections, it concluded. Restaurants should increase the space between tables and improve ventilation to reduce the risk of infection, according to the report of the research, led by Jianyun Lu of the Guangzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.

The research is revealed in an early-release article for the July edition of Emerging Infectious Diseases, the open-access and peer-reviewed journal published by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States. Family clusters of infections have helped the spread of a pandemic in which the world’s total cases are approaching 2 million and the death toll has passed 120,000. The first patient of the 10 cases studied in Guangzhou had on January 23 returned from Wuhan, where the coronavirus was first reported in December. The person had lunch with three family members the next day at a windowless restaurant with an air conditioner on each floor. Two other families sat at neighbouring tables, with about one metre between each and an overlap in dining time of about an hour, the report said.

The first patient had a fever and cough later that day and went to hospital. Within two weeks, four further members of their family, three members of the second family and two of the third family had become ill with Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. After detailed investigation, it was found that the only known source of exposure for the second and third families was the first patient in the restaurant. “From our examination of the potential routes of transmission, we concluded that the most likely cause of this outbreak was droplet transmission,” the report said. “We conclude that in this outbreak, droplet transmission was prompted by air-conditioned ventilation. The key factor for infection was the direction of the airflow.”

Read more …

The idiot who wrote the next article should be quarantined without any means of communication. Whenever you read about a cost-benefit analysis of the virus, stop reading. Luckily, this tweet has the right approach to this:

• The Next Stage Must Be To Let The Virus Spread (AFR)

Last week, the government released the modelling it uses to inform its pandemic response. It appeared reticent; in press conferences, the government was keen to stress its limitations, its use of overseas assumptions and so on, as if to say: “We are not relying on models to decide what to do”. It should not have been. Disease modelling is one of the best tools we have for shaping our pandemic response. The government’s modelling is sound. It aligned closely with ours (I would hope so); we predict 32,000 daily ICU admissions at the peak if we do nothing, the government predicts 35,000. It presents a coherent picture of why we are “flattening the curve” and strong justification for what is being done today.

Australia is containing COVID-19 for now but needs to move on to the next phase. That requires an understanding of the costs and benefits of different social distancing measures and how best to change them as the pandemic proceeds. Our modelling sheds light on both, pointing to faster rather than slower relaxation. I was struck by the announcement that governments are expanding ICU capacity three-fold to 7000 beds. It is worth exploring the implications. Assuming patients admitted to ICU need eight days of treatment, 25 per cent of patients admitted to ICU will die, and that the case fatality rate for COVID-19 with treatment is about 0.5 per cent, it looks like governments are preparing for a peak of around 44,000 new infections a day, much higher than the number today.

I am encouraged by this. It signals that governments are contemplating a managed increase in the spread of the disease. As I said in The Australian Financial Review last week, in the absence of a vaccine or a cure, the best policy involves a managed increase in spread so that some degree of herd immunity develops, seeking to protect those most at risk while it does. How might we achieve this? One policy that is unlikely to work is to try to prevent every death. Why not? Because to do so we would need to eliminate infections entirely. That can only be done with severe and prolonged social distancing at prodigious economic cost (2 per cent of GDP per month for at least 10 months, at least $400 billion).

Read more …

What it really means to be an essential worker.

• California Meat Factory Workers Strike For Right To Be Tested (CN)

Dozens of One World Beef employees lined up in front of Valley Urgent Care to get tested for coronavirus Monday. Many of them participated in a strike that led to their employer granting this test to even occur. The employees say they decided to strike after some began getting sick and sanitary precautions weren’t being taken. Karicia Aguilar’s husband works for the company and said that their main fear was that her husband would contract the virus and spread it to their family. “My husband told me about a young man, who was his neighbor at the lockers who right now is on a ventilator. And so that situation really scared them and they realized they had to do something. They thought we could be taking the virus to our home and our families could get sick,” she said.


Some employees say they were told by HR if they did test positive they would be able to keep their jobs however the time off they took would be discounted from vacation and sick days. “We’re scared for our families. Our families are quarantined in our homes and we’re here working. And we’re in and out of the house. The one thing I hope is we still have a job. We work hard and we care about our job but we’re also concerned about our health,” said one factory worker. The fear of waking up every morning for work and not knowing whether or not you will contract the virus is a reality for many essential workers.

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A new world has arrived.

• California Governor Newsom Says Mass Gatherings Unlikely Through Summer (R.)

Mass gatherings of hundreds or thousands of people will likely be banned in California at least through summer, as the state plots reopening its economy and recovering from the coronavirus pandemic despite a spike in deaths, Governor Gavin Newsom said on Tuesday. Incremental steps to loosen stay-at-home orders could begin after “a few weeks” of evidence that the rates of infection and hospitalization from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus, are decreasing, Newsom told a news conference in the state capital, Sacramento. But he warned that socialization in the most-populous U.S. state would look very different for a long time even after the rules are eased.


“You may have dinner where the waiter is wearing gloves and maybe a face mask, where menus may be disposable, where your temperature is checked as you walk into the restaurant.” School start times may be staggered so children are not crowded together, and lunch and physical education periods may also change. Restaurants will likely have fewer tables – and forget about big celebrations for Memorial Day and the Fourth of July. “The prospect of mass gatherings,” Newsom said, “is negligible at best.”

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Massive testing campaign equals 1% of people?!

• South Korea Holds Parliamentary Election Under Strict Safety Measures (R.)

South Koreans began going to the polls on Wednesday to elect members of parliament under strict safety guidance in one of the first national elections held amid the coronavirus pandemic. About 14,000 polling stations were open at 6 a.m. (0900 GMT) around the country after disinfection, and voters were required to wear a mask and have a temperature check upon arrival. Anyone whose temperature was higher than 37.5 Celsius (99.5 Fahrenheit) was led to a special booth. All voters must use hand sanitizer and plastic gloves when casting ballots and maintain 1 meter (40 inches) distance between each other.


The election is set to decide control of parliament and shape President Moon Jae-in’s ability to push through his agenda in the final two years of his administration, including looser fiscal policy aimed at creating jobs, raising the minimum wage, and continued re-engagement with North Korea. Globally, South Korea was one of the first countries to hold a national election since the coronavirus epidemic began, while many others postponed votes. Once grappling with the first large outbreak outside China, South Korea has largely managed to bring its cases under control without major disruptions thanks to a massive testing campaign and intensive contact tracing. The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 27 new coronavirus cases on Tuesday, bringing the total infections to 10,564. The daily tally has hovered around 30 over the past week, most of them from overseas travelers.


Media members cover inside a polling station for upcoming parliamentary election in Seoul, South Korea, April 14, 2020. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji

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I’m stunned. Stunned, I tell you.

“Just 2% of the businesses questioned said they had successfully accessed the government’s loan scheme..”

• UK Government Loans Not Reaching Businesses (Sky)

Around one in three British businesses have furloughed at least 75% of their workforce due to the coronavirus crisis, according to a new survey. The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) found that two-thirds of businesses it spoke to said they had to put some staff on the furlough scheme, which covers 80% of salaries up to £2,500 a month. But just 2% of the businesses questioned said they had successfully accessed the government’s Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme, and the BCC said many need cash, quickly. It comes after the chancellor’s announcement in the Downing Street briefing on Tuesday that we are in “tough times” economically and that he “can’t protect every business and every household” throughout the pandemic.


 Speaking to Sky News, the BCC’s Co-Executive Director Hannah Essex said: “If businesses don’t have the money in their accounts they’re going to have to look at all of their costs and make some really difficult decisions. “One of those will be if they continue to employ people even if they have the furlough scheme or not. “It’s so important to get the money into firms accounts so that they can take the time to make the best decisions for them, looking at what the future holds and what decisions come out this week about the lockdown, whether it continues or not.” She added: “This will be a hugely worrying time for businesses in Britain and especially for the people they employ. The economy has had an extraordinary impact across the country.

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The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff shoots from the hip and largely misses.

• US Military Says Coronavirus Likely Occurred Naturally But Not Certain (R.)

U.S. intelligence indicates that the coronavirus likely occurred naturally, as opposed to being created in a laboratory in China, but there is no certainty either way, the top U.S. general said on Tuesday. The remarks by Army General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, could fan speculation about the coronavirus’ origins — something China has dismissed as a conspiracy theory that is unhelpful to the fight against the pandemic. Asked whether he had any evidence that the virus began in a Chinese laboratory and was perhaps released accidentally, Milley was non-committal at a Pentagon news briefing.


“There’s a lot of rumor and speculation in a wide variety of media, the blog sites, etc. It should be no surprise to you that we’ve taken a keen interest in that and we’ve had a lot of intelligence take a hard look at that,” Milley said. “And I would just say, at this point, it’s inconclusive although the weight of evidence seems to indicate natural. But we don’t know for certain.” Milley’s comments could again stoke tension with Beijing, where Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian wrote on Twitter last month that the U.S. Army might have “brought the epidemic to Wuhan.”

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“Iraqi President Barham Salih said it was a “regrettable decision” taken by a commission which is independent of the government…”

• Iraq Suspends Reuters For Three Months Over Report On Coronavirus Cases (R.)

Iraq has suspended the licence of the Reuters news agency after it published a story saying the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the country was higher than officially reported. Iraq’s media regulator said it was revoking Reuters’ licence for three months and fining it 25 million dinars ($21,000) for what it said was the agency’s violation of the rules of media broadcasting. In a letter to Reuters, the Communications and Media Commission (CMC) said it had taken the action “because this matter is taking place during current circumstances which have serious repercussions on societal health and safety.”


Reuters said it regretted the Iraqi authorities’ decision and that it stood by the story, which it said was based on multiple, well-placed medical and political sources, and fully represented the position of the Iraqi health ministry. “We are seeking to resolve the matter and are working to ensure we continue to deliver trusted news about Iraq,” the news agency said in a statement. Asked about the Reuters suspension in an interview with Christiane Amanpour on CNN, Iraqi President Barham Salih said it was a “regrettable decision” taken by a commission which is independent of the government. “From my vantage point you would not get me in a situation where I would defend that. I’m working with our legal team in order to revoke that and manage the situation,” Salih said.

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“There was no secret agreement,” he told reporters at a regular news conference. “Nothing.”

• Trump Oil Deal Raises Question For Mexico: At What Cost? (R.)

Mexico’s president has incurred a debt with his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump by accepting U.S. help to end a standoff over global oil cuts, triggering concern the American will in return make the country pay on issues like migration and security. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a leftist oil nationalist, had balked at a demand by the OPEC+ group of oil producing nations to cut output by 400,000 barrels per day. Instead, he offered a cut of 100,000 bpd and said Trump “generously” agreed last week to help Mexico make up the rest. Trump has angered Mexicans by insisting the country will pay for a border wall he is building to keep out illegal immigrants. He has imposed a series of migration and trade-related demands on Lopez Obrador, and said Mexico would “reimburse” the United States for the oil cuts.


He has not yet said how. It could easily mean more demands on immigration and security, Sergio Alcocer, a former Mexican deputy foreign minister for North America, told Reuters. “This could become a joker, a sort of blank check,” for Trump, Alcocer said. Under U.S. coercion, Mexico has had to spend extra money on border policing, looking after asylum seekers and security. The thought of Trump having additional leverage has sown disquiet among both supporters and adversaries of Lopez Obrador. Lopez Obrador said on Tuesday he had not agreed to anything in return for Trump’s help on the oil cuts. “There was no secret agreement,” he told reporters at a regular news conference. “Nothing.”

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But! The Russians!

• GOP Senator Aims To Release Hunter Biden Investigation Report This Summer (NYP)

Senate Homeland Security Chairman Ron Johnson says he is aiming to release a status report on his investigation into Hunter Biden’s work for Ukrainian gas company Burisma Holdings “sometime this summer,” saying that the coronavirus pandemic “hampered” the probe. “We’re in the process of writing different sections of the report that I’d like to make public sometime this summer,” Johnson (R-Wis.) told Politico in an interview Monday. “But obviously, [the coronavirus] has not been helpful and hampered our efforts,” he added. The Wisconsin Republican told the outlet that committee staffers have been going through documents provided by the State Department and National Archives.

The National Archives’ documents include information from the Obama administration. “I’ve got staff that have been devoted to that and they’re working on that stuff from home. We — and I — can walk and chew gum at the same time here. This is not taking up massive amounts of staff time,” he said. Staffers are quarantining at home as the Senate remains in recess until April 20, a deadline that appears to be in flux. During that time, the committee is unable to take multiple actions regarding the probe, including being able to subpoena Blue Star Strategies, a Democratic consultancy firm that was hired by Burisma Holdings.

[..] Senate Republicans argue that Joe Biden may have acted inappropriately as vice president when his son — who had no material experience for the job — was given a high-paying seat on the board of Burisma when the elder Biden was in charge of US policy toward Ukraine. Senate Democrats, however, have argued that the investigation could aid efforts by Russians to spread disinformation and act as a smear campaign for the Democratic presidential candidate, Joe Biden.

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