Jan 032018
 
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GordonParks Untitled, Paris, France 1951

 

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Financial Markets Are No Longer A Mechanism For Price Discovery (Guinn)
Stocks Start 2018 On Positive Note But Investor Confidence Keeps Falling (BBG)
Baltic Dry Index Plunges Most In 2 Years (ZH)
The Next Financial Crisis Will Be Worse Than the Last One (Nomi Prins)
China’s Small Banks Dumped on Signs of More Policy Pain in 2018 (BBG)
Brits Spend 5 Times More Of Their Pay On Rail Fares Than EU Commuters (Mirror)
US Blocks MoneyGram Sale To China’s Ant Financial (R.)
Australia Property Market Is Repeating US Mortgage Mistakes (AFR)
Bankers Work Around The Clock To Iron Out EU Finance Reforms (R.)
Welcome to 2018 – We Are All Connected (Krieger)
Athens To Propose Transfer Of Migrants To Ankara (K.)

 

 

Thsis is what people tend to forget. Things look normal. But the more normal they look, the more risk there is.

Financial Markets Are No Longer A Mechanism For Price Discovery (Guinn)

This Time It’s Different. It’s not different because people really got it right this time (in ways they missed every other time) about some new technology that’s going to Change The World! Electric cars, cryptocurrency, AI and automation, these may all be fabulous things, and they may well prove to be game-changers for productivity and returns on capital down the line, but if you think any of those things explain current valuations, you’re nuts. You’re also wrong. It’s different because financial markets are no longer a mechanism for price discovery and the pricing of risk of capital allocation decisions. Markets have been made into a utility. More to the point, they have been made into a political utility, a tool for ensuring wealth and stability of our political structures.

The easing tools we dabbled in to stabilize prior business cycles were brought to bear instead as tools for propping up and expanding financial asset prices. Beyond the direct marginal price impact of the easing itself, central bankers tailored communications policies to create Pavlovian responses to every narrative. Our President tweets about the policy implications when the S&P 500 hits new highs, for God’s sake. This isn’t a secret, y’all. The singular intent of every central banker in the world is to keep the prices of financial assets from going down, and the singular intent of every government that puts those central bankers in power is to ensure that they do so, in order to retain social stability.

Sure, there’s a dual mandate. But the mandates aren’t employment and price stability. They’re (1) expanding financial asset prices and (2) effectively marketing the idea of corresponding wealth effects to the public. Markets have also rapidly become a social utility, an inextricable part of every contract between governments and the governed. Underfunded pensions and undersized boomer 401(k) accounts mean that ownership of risky assets is not a choice driven by diversification or relative return expectations, but by the fact that it is the only asset they can buy that has any potential of meeting the returns they would need to be adequately funded.

Let’s say that you are running a state pension plan that is 65% funded. Your legislature is telling you that no help is coming from the state budget. You and every member of your agency will be fired if you even suggest cutting benefits, if you even have that authority. Your consultant or internal staff just did their new mean reversion-based capital markets return projections, and higher valuations mean projected returns on everything are lower. What’s worse, your funded status assumes returns that are higher than anything on their sheet. You are being presented with a Hobson’s Choice — behind Door #1, you get fired, and behind Door #2, you lever up your stock exposure with an increased private equity allocation. This a brutal position to be in.

Read more …

While you were sleeping.

Stocks Start 2018 On Positive Note But Investor Confidence Keeps Falling (BBG)

Stocks kicked off 2018 on a positive note, as U.S. equities led the MSCI All-Country World Index to its best start since 2013. To the bears, every move higher only serves to underscore a growing divergence between stocks and sentiment. State Street Global Markets’ index of institutional investor confidence, which differs from survey-based measures in that it is based on the actual trades, as opposed to opinions, fell for a fifth straight month in December, the firm said last week. What’s jarring is how the measure has fallen as the MSCI index of stocks has soared, after largely moving in line with the benchmark in the first half of 2017.

The latest reading of 94.8 puts State Street’s the index further below 100, which is “neutral,” or where investors are neither increasing nor decreasing their long-term allocations to risky assets. By region, sentiment fell in both North America and Asia, but rose strongly in Europe in what State Street said is a sign that that European-based investors are becoming less concerned that political risks could derail the strong economic performance in that region.

Read more …

Our old friend the Baltic has a say as well.

Baltic Dry Index Plunges Most In 2 Years (ZH)

The last six months have seen an almost unprecedented surge in world macro-economic data upside-beats as the so-called ‘global coordinated growth’ narrative surprised more dismal economists. Until recently, The Baltic Dry shipping index had confirmed that narrative… But The Baltic Dry Index has dropped for 8 straight days, tumbling over 21% – the biggest drop since Jan 2015…

While there is seasonality in the index, this is a notable decoupling… (as Bloomberg notes, peak season typically boosts trade volume and pricing, benefiting liners. The industry’s slack capacity remains a drag on rate increases.) But in a longer-term context, the decoupling between global trade volumes and the Baltic Dry Index is vast…

As the overbuilding of vessels in previous credit-fueled bubblicious malinvestment booms continues to ripple through markets still.

Read more …

Good risk overview by Nomi.

The Next Financial Crisis Will Be Worse Than the Last One (Nomi Prins)

If you look at the stock and asset markets, as Donald Trump tends to do (and as Barack Obama did, too), you’d think all is fine with the world. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 24% this year. The Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index rose 6.20%. The price of one Bitcoin rose about 1,646%. On the flip side of that euphoria however, is the fact that the median wage rose just 2.4% and has remained effectively stagnant relative to inflation.

And although the unemployment rate fell to a 17-year low of 4.1%, the labor force participation rate dropped to 62.7%, its lowest level in nearly four decades—particularly difficult for new entrants to the workforce, such as students graduating under a $1.3 trillion pile of unrepayable or very challenging student loan debt. (Not to worry though: Goldman Sachs is on that, promoting a way to profit from this debt by stuffing it into other assets and selling those off to investors, a la shades of the subprime mortgage crisis.)

Those of us living in the actual world without billionaire family pedigrees possess a healthy dose of skepticism over the “Make America Great Again” sect that believes Trump has transformed America “hugely,” for record-setting markets don’t imply economic stability, nor do 40% corporate tax cuts translate into 40% wage growth. We can march forward into 2018 carrying that knowledge with us.

Read more …

Can consolidation save the system?

China’s Small Banks Dumped on Signs of More Policy Pain in 2018 (BBG)

China’s smaller banks started the New Year with a double whammy from regulators and investors, and more pain may be looming. Bank of Tianjin tumbled by as much as 12% in the first two trading days, the biggest two-day decline since its Hong Kong listing in March 2016, after rallying at the end of last year. Bank of Jinzhou, Bank of Qingdao, and Huishang Bank fell by more than 3%. In contrast, bigger rivals have rallied. A policy announcement on Friday highlighted China’s tough stance toward smaller banks, which are already a target of government efforts to reduce leverage in the financial system. The People’s Bank of China said it will set up a mechanism for lowering banks’ reserve requirements as needed during the Lunar New Year festival next month, letting national lenders use as much as 2 %age points of reserves to meet liquidity needs for 30 days. The small banks, which are often the most cash-strapped, were excluded.

“This shows regulators are unrelenting in deleveraging efforts,” said Richard Cao at Guotai Junan Securities. Small banks seeking liquidity will have to borrow from bigger banks at higher costs, he added. China’s smaller banks have borne the brunt of a deleveraging campaign since April last year which has pushed up their borrowing costs, weakened profit growth and increased solvency risks, Natixis said in a December report. Funding for smaller banks “has clearly worsened” because they lack large deposit bases, said Alicia Garcia Herrero, the firm’s chief economist for Asia Pacific. The extensive branch networks of larger lenders lure deposits that act as a buffer as policy makers push ahead with deleveraging. Regulators ramped up financial supervision last year, targeting excessive interbank lending as well as the shadow financing that has helped some smaller lenders expand aggressively.

Read more …

it’s still Thatcher time in Britain. Never went away. She’s supposed to have said: A man who, beyond the age of 26, finds himself on a bus can count himself as a failure.

Brits Spend 5 Times More Of Their Pay On Rail Fares Than EU Commuters (Mirror)

Millions of British commuters are having a miserable morning as rail fares go up by 3.4%. The eye-watering above inflation hike is the biggest for five years. So just wait until you compare it to what some commutes cost on the continent. New research by the Trades Union Congress (TUC) shows Brits spend up to five times as much of their salary than some of their counterparts in Europe. An average worker travelling from Chelmsford, Essex, to central London will have to pay 13% of their salary for a £381 monthly season ticket, the TUC said. That compares with 2% for similar-length commute in France (£66), 3% in Italy (£65), 4% in Germany (£118) and 5% in Spain (£108) and Belgium (£144). Season tickets will increase a third faster than wages in 2018, the TUC warned.

TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady said: “Many commuters will look with envy to their continental cousins, who enjoy reasonably priced journeys to work.” Mick Cash, general secretary of the Rail, Maritime and Transport union, added: “While the British passenger is being pumped for cash, the same private companies are axing safety-critical staff and security on our trains and stations. “It’s a national scandal that private profit comes before public safety on our rail network. “Even worse, with 75% of Britain’s railways in overseas hands, it is the British people who are subsidising state-run rail operations across the continent. The Department for Transport today insisted 97% fares go back to the railways and will help fund the biggest modernisation since Victorian times, including Thameslink, Crossrail and the Great North Rail project.

Read more …

Too close to banking.

US Blocks MoneyGram Sale To China’s Ant Financial (R.)

A U.S. government panel rejected Ant Financial’s acquisition of U.S. money transfer company MoneyGram International over national security concerns, the companies said on Tuesday, the most high-profile Chinese deal to be torpedoed under the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. The $1.2 billion deal’s collapse represents a blow for Jack Ma, the executive chairman of Chinese internet conglomerate Alibaba Group, who owns Ant Financial together with Alibaba executives. He was looking to expand Ant Financial’s footprint amid fierce domestic competition from Chinese rival Tencent’s WeChat payment platform.

Ma, a Chinese citizen who appears frequently with leaders from the highest echelons of the Communist Party, had promised Trump in a meeting a year ago that he would create 1 million U.S. jobs. MoneyGram shares were down 8.5% at $12.06 in after-market trading. The companies decided to terminate their deal after the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) rejected their proposals to mitigate concerns over the safety of data that can be used to identify U.S. citizens, according to sources familiar with the confidential discussions. “Despite our best efforts to work cooperatively with the U.S. government, it has now become clear that CFIUS will not approve this merger,” MoneyGram Chief Executive Alex Holmes said in a statement.

Read more …

Really? It’s hard to say if there’s a bubble?

Australia Property Market Is Repeating US Mortgage Mistakes (AFR)

For all the endless discussion of housing prices in Australia, it is very hard to tell if there is a bubble. Sydney price-to-income ratios are the second highest in the world—above London and New York—but hey, Sydney is a great place to live. Supply is constrained by zoning laws, two national parks, a mountain range, and an ocean. Yet demand continues to grow, so prices tend to rise. I don’t know if there’s a bubble in the Australian housing market, but there are some very troubling markers that suggest impudent borrowing and lending. Just the sort of things that preceded the US housing implosion nearly a decade ago. And I worry that bankers, borrowers, and regulators seem not to have learned the lessons of that very painful piece of economic history.

First, the markers. Australia lenders will let you borrow a lot compared to your income. If one adjusts for tax and exchange rates and uses an online mortgage calculator, it is easy to see than a major Australian bank will lend about 25% more for the same income level compared with what a major US bank will now lend. Not only can one borrow a lot, the structure of the loans is often very risk. A staggering 35.4% of home loans in Australia are interest only, according to recent APRA figures. That has dropped from above 40% thanks to APRA’s recent 30% cap on the amount of new loans that can be interest only. Don’t forget that a key trigger of the US housing meltdown was when five-year adjustable rate mortgages could not be refinanced, and borrowers faced steep upticks every quarter in their interest rates.

Interest-only loans in Australia typically have a five-year horizon and to date have often been refinanced. If this stops then repayments will soar, adding to mortgage stress, delinquencies, and eventually foreclosures. So-called “liar loans”, where borrowers provide inaccurate information about their income, assets, or expenses to lenders seem both prevalent and on the rise. A UBS survey in late 2017 found that approximately 30% of home loans, or $500 billion worth could be affected.

Read more …

Oh well, the idea I guess is commendable.

Bankers Work Around The Clock To Iron Out EU Finance Reforms (R.)

Bankers will work through the night to iron out last-minute hitches before Wednesday’s launch of a major change to European Union financial markets that aims to apply lessons from the financial crisis nearly a decade ago. The new rules are already a year late due to their complexity, with regulators having to issue 11th-hour guidance to banks and financial firms to avoid freezing up trades as well as calming nerves of those not yet fully compliant. The new regime shines a spotlight on the innards of stock, bond, commodity and derivatives markets by forcing banks, asset managers and traders to report detailed information on trillions of euros in transactions. Banks and trading firms have spent millions of euros getting ready for the big day.

A report from Expand, part of the Boston Consulting Group and IHS Markit, has estimated that top global banks and asset managers will have spent £1.5bn ($2.1bn) this year to comply with the rules. Royal Bank of Scotland’s NatWest Markets has conducted a “soft launch”. From 2 January to 4 January, some of its staff will work through the night. “Day one will hopefully go smoothly and we are as ready as we can be,” Giovanni Mazzocchi, head of macro distribution in Europe for Barclays, said. “There are a few overnighters going on to make sure everything will work on the day.”

Credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s said there would likely be more losers than winners from the changes. The aim is to boost transparency and strengthen investor protection to avoid some of the problems of the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Stock, bond, derivatives, commodity and other trades must all be reported to a repository, giving regulators a trove of data to track trades and try to spot bubbles early after failing to see the last crisis coming. When the rules go live on Wednesday, fund managers and others must for the first time fill in a transaction report with up to 65 bits of data within 15 minutes of a trade – or risk being fined.

Read more …

I wish I could share Mike Krieger’s optimist visions of internet and social media. I can’t. I see them divide people at least as much as bringing them together.

Welcome to 2018 – We Are All Connected (Krieger)

Over the course of 2017, I spent a lot of time detailing where we stand as a species and where I think we’re going. To summarize, I think the positive impact of the internet and social media on humanity is still very much in its infancy. The more connected we become to one another across the planet, the more we’ll realize we have far more in common with one another than we do with the sociopathic oligarchs and politicians in charge of our respective nation-states.

Much of the 20th century was defined by unimaginable human conflict and terror, unleashed upon the public by crazed elites and rulers who were able to successfully manipulate large populations. The key to preventing a repeat of this sort of thing in the 21st century is billions of human beings across the planet communicating and sharing friendship with one another to the point we can no longer be tricked in killing each other. We need to learn to see “the other” in ourselves and voluntarily collaborate with our fellow humans on the challenges that face us in order to bring our species to the next level. This isn’t just a pipe-dream or insane utopian ramblings, I think it’s entirely possible.

[..] When I think about 2018 and beyond, I see a species in the early stages of a historic transformation. We are moving away from hierarchies and into networks. Away from centralization and into decentralization. From the unconscious to the conscious. That said, the old system isn’t gone just yet. It remains a dangerous zombie, and its benefactors will fight to keep their schemes alive. The years ahead will be characterized by increased tension between the old and the new. What comes next is up to us. Never forget that we are all connected. That you have tremendous power to impact the world based on your everyday thoughts and actions. Understand that we don’t have to live this way. Fill your heart with love, not hate. Stay true to your higher nature. If enough of us do this, the future is unimaginably bright.

Read more …

As Berlin and Brussels deck it out with Erdogan, they force Greece to consider an approach.

Athens To Propose Transfer Of Migrants To Ankara (K.)

In a bid to reduce overcrowding at migrant reception centers on the Aegean islands, the government is to propose to Turkey that asylum seekers who are not high on the list of eligibility for protection be transferred to camps on the mainland and subsequently to Turkey, Kathimerini understands. “We are asking that we be allowed to conduct returns either directly from the islands or from the mainland in the context of the EU-Turkey joint statement,” a government official told Kathimerini, referring to a deal between Brussels and Ankara signed in March 2016 aimed at curbing migrant smuggling across the Aegean. According to sources, Turkish government officials have indicated that Ankara will respond to Greece’s request in the first half of January.

During a landmark visit to Greece last month, the first by a Turkish head of state in 65 years, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras agreed to cooperate more closely in tackling the refugee crisis. According to sources, Erdogan accepted Tsipras’s request that Turkey take back migrants from the Greek mainland as well as the islands. It remains unclear, however, whether officials in Brussels approve of the deal. Tsipras’s government is keen to ease pressure on reception centers by jumpstarting the return of migrants to Turkey, a process that has largely halted as new arrivals often lodge applications for asylum. By ensuring that those being returned are not refugees from war zones such as Syria, authorities believe they will overcome the objections of some within leftist SYRIZA who have taken a tough stance against returns to Turkey.

Read more …

To make a prairie it takes a clover and one bee,
One clover, and a bee.
And revery.
The revery alone will do,
If bees are few.

– “To make a prairie”, Emily Dickinson

Home Forums Debt Rattle January 3 2018

This topic contains 17 replies, has 9 voices, and was last updated by  V. Arnold 1 week, 5 days ago.

Viewing 18 posts - 1 through 18 (of 18 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #38048

    GordonParks Untitled, Paris, France 1951   UPDATE: There is a problem with our Paypal widget/account that makes donating hard for some people. Wh
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle January 3 2018]

    #38049

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    You want to know how much in trouble (financially) the U.S. Facist state is in?
    I’m gonna tell you; I’ve been collecting my EARNED SS benefits since 2007; ten fucking years!
    Starting in November of 2017; lo and behold; my clockwork benefit started to fail. Due on the 3rd; it always was available by 4:oo pm on the third here.
    Starting in November, 2017; 4:00 pm became 5:00 pm; then 5:30 pm; and now; not 6:45 pm.
    Something is well amiss; corrupt to the core!
    I’m fine, not that close to the wall (so-to-speak) but many times many are; and cannot afford this delay of payments.
    I’m so fucking pissed off I could barely write this; but be assured; the day of reckoning is close at hand.
    And those of us on SS are no longer assured of a guaranteed payment.
    May the god’s help us one an all…
    My apologies to Dickens…

    #38050

    SteveB
    Participant

    Groundhog Day 2018 will be interesting. When Wile E. emerges from his lair and runs off the cliff, will he see his reflection when he looks at the camera?

    #38051

    Dr. D
    Participant

    Yes, friends here had SS Disability 1, 2 years ago? Well, the gov’t wrote to say “Gosh, we suddenly realized we’ve made a mistake and have been overpaying you a couple bucks a week. Could you be a dear and just send us a check for a couple thousand dollars to repay that? K thx, bai.”

    Dear Sirs: it may not have come to your attention, but not only is it customary for business or government to eat losses made by idiotic overpayments, however tiny, but the very FACT of being on government assistance means you don’t have any money. …Much less thousands of dollars over thousands of people to bail out the government’s end-of-month shortfall.

    1,001 examples yesterday? Make this 1,002. Even if somehow, through sheer coincidence of the stars money should make it through the dizzying array of 740% wealthy bureaucrats and government actually manages to give money to the needy, and does not ask for a hearing and/or audit and body scan 70 miles away for the legally broke and immobile, they will actually want the money back. P.S., also for no logical reason at all.

    Look out V: if they have greater shortfalls ending the fiscal year, they’ll soon decide you owe THEM. I mean, 406,960 Federal employees make over 6-figures and those yachts aren’t going to buy themselves, are they?

    #38052

    Dr. D
    Participant

    #FrozenAmerica

    Winter

    OMG people, it’s called winter, you might have heard of it before. This is a normal winter storm in a normal-to-cold winter. Note it only makes the news when it snows on the important people. If snow shut all 10 states starting in Tulsa, we’d cover the Kardashians. amirite?

    #38053

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    Dr. D
    Look out V
    Yeah, and thanks, but; here’s the thing; I retired; I’m not on disability; I paid my fucking SS taxes for 40+ fucking years!
    My SS isn’t a entitlement god damn it! I paid hard earned money into a fund that was supposed to be responsibly managed so I had a modicum of guaranteed income!
    The fascisti in Washington have no right to fuck with that EARNED benefit!!!!!
    Man o man; I hope this is a tipping point.
    Realistically; the timid Usian’s haven’t got it in them to stand up and revolt…
    Fuckall…

    #38054

    zerosum
    Participant

    I live in community that depends on the income that the seniors spend to survive.
    Without our senior income, the dependents will die die die …. before the healthy seniors.
    Yes, there are still a few of us that can still forage.
    Yes, A few of us are not over medicate, pain free, and sound of body and mind.

    Kill the pensions and you kill the young ones.
    Cut the pensions and you cut off your economic and social nose.

    Ask the Greeks.
    What are the Greeks doing to put food on the table?

    =====
    Biggest fulcrum movers in 2017

    1. Bullies and their victimes – scales from unwanted sexual misconducts to right up to destroying countries and their economic/social structures.
    2. Social media – twitters. facebook, e-mails, WikiLeaks
    3. Bitcoin
    4. Fake news/propaganda
    5. Painkillers – cannabis to fentanyl

    #38055

    John Day
    Participant

    All of the resources of the global nuclear-dollar-oil-gas-empire must go into maintaining the structure. When the structure fails, the music stops, and all participants are on their own, feeling hungry, some armed and with nothing to lose.
    It is incumbent upon us, while we have some opportunity, to forge small living/growing/habitation systems, like little right-living lifeboats for the vast systemic reset from a world of growing energy/resource-availability, to a world over Seneca’s Cliff. Save what you can live in/on, but that is hard to steal and transport away. Sweet potatoes are hard to steal. Wheat, rice, corn and beans are easy to steal.

    #38056

    olo530
    Participant

    Your monthly payments are two hours and forty five minutes late, but still coming through, in full, is that correct, V. Arnold? Is it a problem in and by itself, or you are concerned that it’s a sign of things to come?

    #38057

    Nassim
    Participant

    ” Brits Spend 5 Times More Of Their Pay On Rail Fares Than EU Commuters (Mirror) ”

    I recently read some American writing about Russia that:

    “A 100km rail journey from Moscow to Kolomna or Volokolamsk on an elektrichka costs no more than $5 (300R); in the UK, a similar journey from London to Portsmouth will cost at least £25. I paid about $75 for a high-speed Sapsan to go from Moscow to Saint-Petersburg, though I could have gotten there for as cheap as $25 on platskart shared accommodation. In contrast, my American round-trip cost me $700 with Amtrak– and I sat the entire route”

    Amazing how the people who invented trains seem to be unable to operate them cheaply any longer.

    #38058

    zerosum
    Participant

    Look at how the majority is treated by the rich and powerful.
    The minority are bullies.
    Look at what the bullies are doing.

    sanctions
    economic sanctions, typically a ban on trade, possibly limited to certain sectors (such as armaments), or with certain exceptions (such as food and medicine) like sanctions against Iran

    international sanctions, coercive measures adopted by a country or a group of countries against another state or individual(s) in order to elicit a change in their behavior

    pragmatic sanction, historically, a sovereign’s solemn decree which addresses a matter of primary importance and which has the force of fundamental law

    siege
    Failing a military outcome, sieges can often be decided by starvation, thirst, or disease, which can afflict either the attacker or defender. This form of siege, though, can take many months or even years, depending upon the size of the stores of food the fortified position holds.

    bullying
    There is no universal definition of bullying, however, it is widely agreed upon that bullying is a subcategory of aggressive behavior characterized by the following three minimum criteria: (1) hostile intent, (2) imbalance of power, and (3) repetition over a period of time.[13] Bullying may thus be defined as the activity of repeated, aggressive behavior intended to hurt another individual, physically, mentally or emotionally
    .Bullying is divided into four basic types of abuse – emotional (sometimes called relational), verbal, physical, and cyber.[8] It typically involves subtle methods of coercion, such as intimidation.

    #38059

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    olo530
    Is it a problem in and by itself, or you are concerned that it’s a sign of things to come?

    We’re fine. Very much concerned it’s a trend; I see dead people.
    I see a government corrupt to the core; stealing everything; allowing the infrastructure (all of it) to rot and fail. It is as clear as can be; people are a burden to the government and expendable.
    I see my sister working until she’s 70 (68 now) and maybe then, able to finally retire.

    #38060

    olo530
    Participant

    I see dead people

    You and me both, brother… The only hope is we’ll die of old age before the shit hits the fan.

    #38061

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    olo530
    Yeah, it’s called the death bet; we win if we die before TSHTF.
    LOL, in a perverse sort of way…

    #38062

    Kirk Waln
    Participant

    Bizarre weather like the East Coast of the US is experiencing are exactly what climate scientists tell us to expect from global climate change. Yeah, weird weather has always been with us but now we get a steady diet of it – the oddity becomes the norm. Enjoy. ‘Course you can always claim it’s fake like the Donald does. . . but reality bites.

    #38063

    Nassim
    Participant

    Kirk Waln,

    There are those who think that once upon a time the weather was dependable and entirely predictable – like a Swiss clock – and those who think otherwise. 🙂

    Climate Explainers: Colder Winters – Because Climate Change

    Niagra Falls frozen 1911

    Niagra Falls partly frozen 1920’s – from Canadian side.

    #38064

    Nassim
    Participant

    February 11, 1899: The Worst Cold Snap in North American History

    It’s only early January. When I was in DC, the coldest time of the year was in February and that is when most of the snow fell too. Let’s see if it will be repeat (unlikely)

    #38085

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    olo530
    In the end, SS retirement benefit has effectively been moved forward 1 day, from the 3rd to the 4th.
    As I said already; we’re fine; but many times many are not; and 1 day could mean going hungry(?), late on rent, car payment; the list goes on and on for those on the margines; it’s them I rail for, against the machine…
    That one day delay, is the early stages of the malignancy that eventually kills: Something the U.S. government is very good at; killing…

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