Aug 272020
 August 27, 2020  Posted by at 1:16 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Leon Levinstein Head of Man with Hat and Cigar c1960



A Pew Research Center poll that’s already a month old (and a lot happened since) concluded that violent crime is a major issue according to 59% of voters (almost as much as coronavirus): 74% of Republicans and 46% of Democrats. But during the DNC, held after the poll was already out, the issue wasn’t addressed at all. Democrats talked about police violence, but not riot violence.

At this week’s RNC, this situation is -of course- very different. The DNC pushes the GOP into the role of the party of law and order, and they’re all too willing to take up that role. But I was wondering about something else, or “bigger”, this morning. That is, Joe Biden et al are very light on policies, because in their view their most important issue is to get people to vote *against* Donald Trump, rather than *for* Biden.

And I’m thinking maybe that’s starting to boomerang, to blow up in their faces, whether perhaps people are beginning to lean towards NOT voting for Joe Biden, instead of NOT voting for Donald Trump, “at any cost”. In that context, it appears telling that according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Biden saw no “convention poll bounce” in his numbers after the DNC, while ironically, Trump did.

Whereas according to a Zogby Analytics poll, Trump’s job approval numbers are now at record high levels. And I know polls -and pollsters- can be biased, and so can the press quoting them, but to see three in a row, Reuters/Ipsos, Rasmussen, Zogby, all reporting similar movement, may still be significant.

Trump Job Approval Rating Hits Record At 52%

Buoyed by blacks and independent voters, as well as urban dwellers shocked by the Black Lives Matter protest violence raging in some cities, President Trump’s approval rating has hit a new high, according to a survey heavy with minority voters. The latest Zogby Analytics poll just shared with Secrets had Trump’s approval at 52%. “The president has recorded his best job approval rating on record,” said pollster Jonathan Zogby.

What’s more, his approval rating among minorities was solid and, in the case of African Americans, shockingly high. Zogby said 36% of blacks approve of the president, as do 37% of Hispanics and 35% of Asians. Approval among independent voters is also up, to 44%. And “intriguingly,” said Zogby, 23% of Democrats approve of Trump.

It was the latest to show that Trump’s approval went up during the Democratic National Convention. Rasmussen Reports had it at 51% at the end of the convention. In a shock from past election years, Joe Biden got no convention poll bounce, according to a newly released Reuters/Ipsos poll. [..] Zogby, in his analysis, took a stab at the reasoning. First, he said, his and other polls are confirming that the nation is nearly evenly divided politically and that despite some showing a big Biden lead, the race is extremely close.

He suggested that the battle is for the “10%-20%” who haven’t made their minds up on whom to vote for and who likely won’t make up their minds until Election Day, just like in 2016. “We are as polarized a nation, on a level not seen since the Civil War,” said Zogby. He also said that the violence playing out in cities such as Kenosha, Wisconsin, and Portland, Oregon, are pushing urban voters to Trump.

A fresh Rasmussen poll about Biden’s lead in the polls (which reached double digits not long ago), indicates that there’s not much left of that lead. That, but the way, is similar to a CNN poll a number of weeks ago. Significantly, Rasmussen suggests that: Even if Biden’s now-slim lead in the polls were to remain frozen as of today, Trump would still have a clear path to an electoral college victory.

Biden’s Polling Lead Has Collapsed

Just a month and a half ago, Rasmussen Reports had Joe Biden 10-points ahead of President Donald Trump in the polls. Now he’s only ahead by one point, within the margin of error. Even if Biden’s now-slim lead in the polls were to remain frozen as of today, Trump would still have a clear path to an electoral college victory, as Hillary Clinton lead Trump in the popular vote by just over two points in the 2016 election. While it is impossible to know the exact reason (or reasons) for Biden’s polling collapse, it comes as the economy continues to rebound from the coronavirus, riots continue to ravage liberal run cities longer than anyone expected (to no condemnation from Joe Biden and Kamala Harris)..

[..] Rasmussen was among the closest mainstream pollster in approximating the popular vote in the 2016 election. Rasmussen had Hillary Clinton up 1.7 points over Trump on election day 2016, while she ended up winning the popular vote by 2.1 points above him (48.2% vs. 46.1%). The Real Clear Politics average of polls had Hillary up for six points. Unlike the other polls, Rasmussen correctly saw Trump had a path to victory in the electoral college.



And of course Don Lemon warned yesterday on CNN that Biden has to start addressing the riots, because by remaining silent he’s letting Trump run away with the issue. But it’s not entirely clear how Biden would do that: the Democrats have supported BLM and protesters -as well as rioters- in general for most of the year, and now they would have to turn against them?

The sports boycotts that yesterday came seemingly out of nowhere all at the same time, look like they’re well intentioned but too late. There is too much news, and there are too many videos, out there to keep portraying what’s happening in the streets of Kenosha and Minneapolis and many other cities, as a one-sided problem. There is violence on both, or even many, sides.

Tonight, Thursday August 27, it’s Donald Trump’s turn to address the RNC, and the entire press, the entire nation, will pay attention. Nobody feels they can afford not to. Almost half the country will already have their minds made up about what a terrible person he is, while the other almost half will think he’s doing great. It’s the “10%-20%” who haven’t made their minds up that he must reach, and given how the country feels about violence in the streets, he may well succeed in reaching quite a few.

For which he can thank the DNC. “Orange Man Bad” may have once looked to be a winning strategy, but by now it feels mostly a limiting one.




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Home Forums Are The Tables Starting To Turn?

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    Leon Levinstein Head of Man with Hat and Cigar c1960     A Pew Research Center poll that’s already a month old (and a lot happened since) co
    [See the full post at: Are The Tables Starting To Turn?]

    Mister Roboto

    It’s worth noting that if you decide to donate to BLM through their website, you will get taken to the website of ActBlue, which collects donations for Democratic Party candidates. That doesn’t necessarily mean the BLM takes all its “marching orders” from the DNC, but it certainly implies that they are part of the same nexus of political activism. At first, I didn’t want to believe that the protests were some kind of Democrat-orchestrated “color revolution”, but there are too many signs that it is (the biggest one being the pallets of bricks that would mysteriously show up in areas of cities where protests were happening).



    Why … Manipulation, Politics, Demonstration, Riots, Revolutions, Destruction, War, Refuges, homeless, destitute, pain, lies

    Can we believe forecasters?
    Was “LAURA”, cat #4, forecasted to be worst than reality?
    Are political forecasts any better than weather forecasts?

    Why are so many people, in the USA, demonstrating, destroying, and being violent?
    Why are people in other countries, different?
    Why are Young people dying of opioids.
    Why are Old people dying of C19


    Why does knowing the answer not solve the problem?


    Nancy Pelosi comes out once again saying Biden should not debate Trump. Given the latest polls discussed in this article, this seems to be a choice between “who cares anymore” and “sure, why not hand it to Trump on a silver platter”.


    Just some headlines right now:

    Hurricane Laura Ravages Louisiana Coastline With Wind Speeds Not Seen In More Than A Century

    Those Who Didn’t Evacuate Before Hurricane Laura Should Put Their Name In A Plastic Bag In A Pocket

    Dr. D

    “Biden saw no “convention poll bounce.” Ouch.

    “Trump’s job approval numbers are now at record high levels.” Even among black voters. And this is from a group that was regularly mistaken on polls in only one direction, that refuses to report anything good for him. Ominous.

    No doubt reciting CNN and Rasmussen makes you a Trump-humping Russian bot. You’re failing the purity test. You’re not keeping it one hundred. That is, 100% negative.

    It’s not rocket surgery. It was all super-easy to see. Thus, super-easy to see the cheating via President Pelosi, which she just said repeating John Podesta “Biden should never concede” which they must say since being behind in battleground states it’s obviously 150% sure he will win. …They will secede instead, following John’s written and publicized plan.

    Hurricane Laura Ravages Louisiana Coastline with Wind Speeds Not Seen in More Than a Century”

    I guess we’ll find out if they’re not lying for once. The coast is hardy and very experienced. They shrug off attacks most of the world can’t conceive of. At this point you need an Hurricane Irma even to impress them.


    Meanwhile, Biden says: “Donald Trump “is rooting for more violence, not less.”

    I’m thinking enough people see that it’s the Dems who haven’t said anything to discourage the violence. Who’ve cheered on the protests and riots all this time because they figured it would help them against Trump, who talked about sending in cops to end it. But things have changed.

    And Joe Biden, I’m sorry, is looking like a really old and tired man. The first thing that came to mind when I saw this pic was: John McCain


    V. Arnold

    IMO, the *situation* in the U.S. is hopeless. Who you gonna trust?
    In the end, there was a coup; but we missed it…now, we have to live with it…or not…
    Bread and circuses for our enertainment and distraction.
    The powers now in control of the U.S. are immune to elections; but elections are important to maintain the illusion of the thing we incorrectly term democracy…

    Mister Roboto

    It seems odd that popularity-polling in the mid-thirties is solid support. I’m sure it is by today’s standards, but that today’s standards are so different only makes the case that Zogby brought up that we’re a very badly divided and polarized society now.


    Pro labor
    Where’s my party?
    The more people pile on the Biden bandwagon (“McCain Alums for Biden”?!) the more I despair for what was once the Democratic Party.

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