Debt Rattle February 25 2020
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Andreas Feininger Production B-17 heavy bomber at Boeing plant, Seattle Dec 1942 • The Fall of Wuhan (Ben Hunt) • 40-70% Of People Will Be Infe
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle February 25 2020]if 40% of americans get covid19 and the mortality rate is 1% that’s ~8 million dead. it’s beginning to seem to me that many more americans will instead suffer from the secondary effects of the crisis. recovering from a wildfire in california or a tornado in the midwest will take much longer than usual when utility workers are quarantined and replacement parts are unavailable.
it’s likely that parts of the country will lose electricity and water for an extended period. those who can will leave. those left behind who require medicine or medical care or food…..?
if the cdc is not considering scenarios such as this then they are completely inept. they’re probably too busy arranging for ‘great job brownie’-style press releases and maxing out performance bonuses now that the money is flowing.
this is the message the cdc needs to send:
Containment has failed. And so now we must fight.
unfortunately, i can’t imagine them saying anything even remotely like this until it’s way too late.
It becomes impossible to keep track:
COVID19 reported in Austria, Croatia. On Tenerife, Canary Islands, over 1,000 people staying in the same hotel have been quarantined in their rooms for at least 14 days because one guest, an Italian doctor from Lombardy, tested positive.
Unlike his father, there’s still time to arrest W. for New Orleans. If you deputize me, I’ll be happy to help.
How on earth would only 40-70% get it? Is there a space station or prison island somewhere that’s incommunicado?
So no one in America has Covid – even Hawaii. Because no one in America has been tested. Especially Hawaii: they have no testing kits. Explain please? Because to me it sounds like you WANT the planet covered in this and ye olde 800 million dead. …As they’ve written about as a benefit to especially to themselves and the planet at large – at the expense of the poor (i.e. YOU) of course — for 40 years.
The other noteable thing: no one has accused the U.S. or even anyone else of setting off as a bioweapon. Even though it strikes all our enemies at a critical turn, suddenly including Iran who was nowhere near nothin’. …But we’re just lucky like that I guess. 100% of the time. Right after warning GM and Apple in the strongest possible terms to move their supply chain back home or else. Blaming us dirty imperialist American pig-dogs is just the go-to, the always-taken default, forever, divert-the-blame plan. And this is the one time only they DON’T use it? Why? Very strange.
To be positive, look at Singapore, who has done everything right. They apparently can read words and ‘science’ and immediately a) stockpile critical goods like masks so their hospitals remain functional b) immediately define ‘proximity’ as +2m, c) trace each infection back to origin immediately and tirelessly, d) when identified, put the people under a real, not theatrical quarantine of the correct duration. Wow! So mystery! Amaze!
Sadly, Canada is the complete opposite, having patients that have all the symptoms, CAT scanned lungs, who work with Asians from the area, and REFUSE to test, because, rules. Rules are, test only if YOU are directly from an affected area. So there! Be symptomatic all you want, sneeze up the hospital, walk around Vancouver coughing to your heart’s content but Medicare will EBD before they pay $50 to test you.
Meanwhile in the States, Hawaii is proud to say they have no outbreaks, especially not on Maui, where a known infected man was. They know this because he flew back home asymptomatic…although we’ve known for two months the asymptomatic can contaminate…and they double-checked all this by a) finding no one and b) giving no tests. So how can there be any confirmed cases when we won’t test anyone? By definition: no outbreak! QED. Safe as houses. …And so on through the system, flying 90% likely contaminated back on the same plane as healthy people against orders, and Oops! Whaddya knows? My bad: they had it. And then kicking the known-infected out of a strict military base into a halfway house with open doors in a residential district of a town of 1M greater area. That’s just #AntiLogic! The only logic we knows here in Idiocracy. We’ll feed them Brawndo and give them Starbucks. Remember 8,000 ‘voluntary’ quarantines, except we have no list of names, no idea if they’re doing anything, and no one’s checking.
And thus, on and on forever, until the good and logical people stand up and wrest control of the system back away from the lunatic zealots of #AntiLogos. Which, as they haven’t bothered in my lifetime, much less back when it was a lot easier, it’s going to be a long, long time, maybe a generation, and 800 million dead would be an optimistic number. First to go will be me and Chris Martenson no doubt, for correctly pointing out #Truth that if you act like an idiot you’re going to kill everyone, it’s voluntary, unnecessary, and dumb. Because we WANT 800 million dead. I’ve been reading about how awesome that is most of my life but at least all year from every corner, especially from international heroes like Gates and St. Greta. Why WOULD you stop? Help it. #Resist by flying in as many cruise ships and Chinese students and keeping the borders as open as possible. Erase ICE if you can! If anyone tries not to die, call them a racist. Because as we know the laws of physics depend on your skin color and change from place to place.
Meanwhile, 40 + 47 = 87 incinerators running, ballpark 2,610/day x 60 days = 156,600 numbers that don’t care about your feelings. But you can die for your antiscience religion and political correct cause if you wish. And they are. And no one’s at all mad, any interest in changing behavior, so who am I to say? Isn’t this like the Moorlocks or Star Trek where they jump into the incinerators on command for a virtual war?
Speaking of theatre and voluntary, “Weinstein to Face 8 More Allegations after New York Verdict (G.)” the NY D.A. who took money from Weinstein and didn’t prosecute him for 20 years is suddenly all into this verdict. Yeah! That’ll larn him. Right behind him is the L.A. prosecutor who did the very same thing. …And somehow nobody else in all of Hollywood, ever did this, ever. It’s almost like it’s all a big puppet show.
“US Proposals to Whitewash Idlib Terrorists Unacceptable – Lavrov (RT)”
Another day, another day Trump hasn’t stopped the war and moved the troops home. Another day Congress hasn’t removed his (illegal) power to do so, nor impeached him for it. It’s almost like it’s all a big….oh wait I said that already.
“Julian Assange faces life in prison for publishing true information that was in the public interest…if truth becomes treason we are all in trouble.”
IF? That’s like IF we have a pandemic. Where have you been? It’s been like that all my life. It’s almost like there’s no principle, no law, and it’s all one big…illusion? show? joke? con?
These are not serious people. They will die of it and take you with them.
Hey L.A. prosecutor, Cory Feldman on the phone to talk to you about how very, very much you care. He’s been on national T.V. trying to get your attention for child rapes after his best friend committed suicide over it. …Hello? Hello?
I’m sure after 30 years, he’s the ONLY one.
Ben Hunt’s advice about the corrupt political response to COVID-19.
“As a nation that means a war-footing to build dedicated treatment wards before they’re required, to protect healthcare professionals before they get sick, to update our testing and diagnostic capabilities before they are swamped … to do everything possible to bolster our healthcare systems BEFORE the need overwhelms the capacity….”
There’s a joke circulating aimed it the current younger generation that asks:
“Do you know why the younger generation calls the obsessive habit of photo chronicling ‘Selfies’…
Because Narcissisties is too hard to spell.”
I’m not holding my breath for any self sacrifice from the U.S. population for anything, especially the young.
Their response to dealing with the fantastically grim reality of COVID-19 will be, “Isn’t there an App for that???”
My parents were from the WWII generation. My father survived the fighting on Okinawa and utter horror show on Iwo Jima. He never spoke about it until he was a very old man in his late 80’s and it still made him weep.
I read a fictional satire recently of the young Woke hipster Gen we have now being in the landing craft about to hit Omaha beach during the Normandy Invasion.
They just couldn’t get it together because their quad long shot grande in a venti cup half calf double cupped no sleeve salted caramel mocha latte with 2 pumps of vanilla substitute 2 pumps of white chocolate mocha for mocha and substitute 2 pumps of hazelnut for toffee nut half whole milk and half breve with no whipped cream extra hot extra foam extra caramel drizzle extra salt add a scoop of vanilla bean powder with light ice well stirred. …wasn’t hot enough!
And they were feeling “Triggered” by all the less than micro aggression that awaited them on the beach up ahead.
Are you filled with confidence about the current generation tackling COVID-19?
“Oh the Humanity!” kinda rings flat nowadays doesn’t it?
I hear ya Dave Note. It is incredible how in just a couple generations an incredible amount of knowledge and capacity is gone.
This will not serve anyone well given a hugely fragile economic system in which everyone is just a tiny cog and no one knows how to build things from scratch, nor do we have the means equipment wise. Sad for all that we got sold this stupid financial bill of goods that made us all so vulnerable.Actually, the current generation WILL handle the virus because it will be the survivors who have no choice but to carry on. They will become freakishly tough, those survivors, and write a line of history we’ll never know. The Greatesdt generation wasn’t alol that tough and the Wokesters aren’t all that weak.
The Greatest Gen (my parents) were colossal chumps who fell for a global swindle called WWII. The Wokesters are colossal chumps who fall for Save the Planet globalism. Hardly anyone from either generation met an “app” (same lexical root as ‘appliance’) they wouldn’t sdell their autonomy for.
As for the virus, it will do us about as bad the Spanish Flu did the parents and grandparents of the so-called greatest Generation. Both cultures were based on ever greater close-quartered integration of growing populations. Both were/are recipes for infectious epidemic disaster.
Whether they croak clutching a can of 1959 Schlitz or some New Age-named caffeine confection, hardly matters. Both generations were total chumps. Like us. We’re watching the tsunami approach our homes, and we don’t have highlands to retreat to.
Hi Ilargi – long time.
If I’m here then it really must be a SHTF moment.Covid-19 of course.
Dr. D
On that Canada thing – I’m not sure of the validity of that example cited by Martenson but the Canadian response has at times been pretty frustrating especially at the federal level.Even so (and here’s the shocker) in their own bureaucratic and politically correct manner the provinces seem to have actually been on the job more or less.
As of Monday when the CDC listed 426 as the total tested in the USA Ontario alone had completed testing on 540 people and British Columbia had completed testing 677!!!!
How does that make sense? The CDC has been pretty aggressive with travel bans etc. but what is going on inside the USA??? I don’t know what to make of this.
On Feb. 20 Imperial College estimated that 2/3’s of all cases exported from Wuhan were undetected.
But how can you find them if you don’t test? South Korea, Italy and Iran (who knows how bad things really are there) show what can happen. With a long incubation period and virus spreading with light or even no symptoms this thing can be undetected until boom it’s a total mess.Singapore and Hong Kong(even with it’s political problems) show that it might be possible to keep things somewhat under control but it takes a level of competence, dedication, and clear thinking that seems to be lacking in most places.
TAE is unique in the blog sphere. The insightful comments make TAE special
The virus is more than a health problem.
Its greatest impact is and will be on the social/economic system.
We have front row seats at TAE.
We often make comments before the “experts” even get out of bed and start “parroting us”.https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/south-korean-crisis-response-coordinator-commits-suicide-cases-near-1000-live-updates
Update (1100ET): WHO’s Bruce Aylward told journalists that China’s actions “prevented hundreds of thousands of cases” and warned that the rest of the world “is not ready for the virus to spread,” adding that “countries should instruct citizens now on hygiene.”Unsurprisingly, the Dems were quick to slam the White House’s $2.5 billion spending plan that was sent lawmakers on Monday to address the deadly coronavirus outbreak. Democrats said the request fell far short of what’s needed.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the president’s request “long overdue and completely inadequate to the scale of this emergency” in a statement released Monday. She added that the House would propose a “strong, strategic” funding package of its own to address the public health crisis.
Because nothing solves a public health crisis like a political stalemate.
Trump joked in public remarks Tuesday that if he had authorized more, Chuck Schumer and the rest would be criticizing him, saying “it should be less.”
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You all have heard me saying, ” Its doesn’t matter what I think or say, I’m not a decision maker, influencer, or enabler.”Does knowing the truth or being “truth seekers” change anything, outside of our bubble?
Just because I think that coronavirus-linked deaths will replace the ordinary “cold flu” deaths, does not change the future. I cannot change what the flue is going to do. You might think differently. I don’t mind.
If I think that the coronavirus is going to make the USA military go into lock down in the middle east, or Japan, (like they did in South Korea), only means that I think that the military cannot win a fight with cough and spittle.
Soon, a lot of moms will not let their sons join the military.
Soon, there will too many soldiers and veterans in the USA.
(It happened after WWII. The USA is not prepared for having all those young military people being home.)
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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/we-cant-stop-japan-rolls-out-new-harm-reduction-policy-aimed-limiting-virus-related
One senior advisor who spoke with WaPo put it the starkest of terms: We can’t stop it, so the best we can do is keep the body count as low as possible.“We shouldn’t have illusions,” said Shigeru Omi, a senior government adviser. “We can’t stop this, but we can try to reduce the speed of expansion and reduce mortality.”
In keeping with this maxim, hospital space will be reserved for patients with the most serious symptoms, while those with simple colds and fevers have been asked to rest at home. They’re only to contact health authorities if a fever persists for four days. Or two for the elderly, people with chronic diseases or pregnant women .
Companies have been asked to promote “flexible” work schedules to lessen daytime crowds aboard Tokyo’s mass transit.Citizens have also been advised to “limit” face-to-face conversations, avoid crowds and drinking sessions, and wash their hands if they touch straps while commuting on the train. Though the government didn’t explicitly “ban” large events, it asked organizers to consider whether their event was really that necessary.
The new policy does little to clear up the uncertainty surrounding the Tokyo Olympics. But we suspect Japan will wait another month or two before it starts seriously considering what’s next.
Dr. D.:. Last night I read an interview by Canadian Federal health officials.
Clearly they have thrown in the towel on containing the coronavirus in Canada! That battle is already lost!
Clearly they are encouraging people to self quarantine so they don’t have to admit they have no test kits!
Clearly they have no intention of shutting down air travel either!
The virus is coming from all over the world now, so what is the point of even trying to screen?
I think the CDC is saying exactly the same thing!
Someone should tell President Trump that the US government is deliberately trying to let the virus reach and spread in the US! They are openingly going behind his back to accomplish this! They plan on blaming him for the coming virus out break!
His opponents see this as a golden opportunity to finally rid themselves of him! They don’t care if a few 10s of millions of Americans need to die!
It is all about restoring their corrupt $5.8 million per year kickbacks from the US Chamber of Commerce that they are no longer getting since Trump was elected!
One of the reasons I am so suspicious of Trudope and Canadian health officials is that Trudope coordinates and co-operates very closely with members of Congress, especially the house speaker, Nancy! Canada still has not ratified the trade agreement yet, waiting on instructions from Nancy! Trudope would very dearly like Trump gone!
ITS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/south-korean-crisis-response-coordinator-commits-suicide-cases-near-1000-live-updatesUpdate (1145ET): US CDC says COVID-19 epidemic is rapidly evolving and expanding, warning that a vaccine could be ready in a year, and Americans should prepare for possible spreads in communities.Additionally, HHS Secretary Alex Azar says at Senate panel hearing that the U.S. doesn’t have enough stockpiles of masks and ventilators to fight the coronavirus and that’s one reason the Trump administration is seeking $2.5b in funding.
About 30m so-called N95 respirator masks are stockpiled but as many as 300m are needed for healthcare workers, Azar says, adding that his department doesn’t yet know how much they would cost.
Democratic Sen. Patty Murray, who questioned the administration’s readiness to battle the spread of the virus:
“I’m deeply concerned we’re way behind the eight ball on this,” Murray said while questioning Azar at the Appropriations subcmte hearing.
Azar also says the money would be used to help develop vaccines and treatments for the virus and that a vaccine could be ready in a year.
* * *
Dave Note:. I see you have also noted the shift in attitudes of public health officials saying the containment battle has been lost!
In Canada, Ottawa health officials have clearly given up! They don’t want to admit they are not prepared nor have any test kits available. They are recommending people just self quarantine themselves!
I see California has over 8,000 people supposedly self quarantining themselves! Again nobody is being tested! Again no stoppage of international airline flights just like Canada!
I saw that Iran’s deputy health minister has the virus! Iran traced their out break to an Iranian merchant evading direct travel restrictions by travelling via 3rd countries to China and back. He died, so they can’t shoot him!
Zerosum:. Yes, clearly the US government is not prepared! But at least they are finally talking about it as Rome burns! Nothing for the short term. Hog wash delusional crap years from now after everyone is dead!
Looks like Congress has finally found a way to rid themselves of Trump! Never let a good crisis go to waste – former Obama official & major of Chicago!
In Canada, the government is not not even talking about it yet! That means they are even less prepared! Canadian health officials threw in the towel yesterday! They have already given up! Everybody to self quarantine themselves!
A scan of Canadian news this morning, shows that Trudope still can’t get a handle on natives blockading railways!
Not a word about the virus!
Trudope still worried about bribing 3rd world dictators to get a UN security seat!
BREAKING NEWS
CDC expects ‘community spread’ of coronavirus [in US], as top official warns disruptions could be ‘severe’…The CDC’s messaging seemed to be at odds with the position of the World Health Organization, which reiterated Tuesday that countries could stop transmission chains if they acted swiftly and aggressively.
WE ARE SO FORTUNATE
I don’t have a care or worry in the world just because the DOW is again losing another 1,000 points.
I’m not part of the 10% of the population that is gambling in the stock marketMy guess is that most countries will lift their quarantines soon since the disease is so contagious. Markets will rebound as supply lines are reestablished.
People in the west are scared and fascinated because it has been a long time since there has been a plague here, First half of the 20th century was plague ridden! The Spanish flu gets more press today than ever.
Ever wonder how many people in the North America died of the flu today, yesterday, the day before? A lot.
I imagine this virus is not being talked about in some sub Saharan African countries that have been battling AIDS for decades and Malaria for millennia.
Funny how a lot of anti vaxers are screaming for a vaccine for corona virus but refuse to allow there children to be vaccinated against the scourges of a century ago. Must be something to do with that 4th turning.For all the math challenged…
1% of a billion is 10 million
1% of the world’s population is 77 million
1% of the 40% of the US population that might get the virus is 1.3 million
not to take anything away from the seriousness or the death potential of this virus but exaggerating the numbers doesn’t help one bit.We often make comments before the “experts” even get out of bed and start “parroting us”.
The advise by CDC etc. is
Stay home,What do you think? Its about losing money
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-are-425-billion-reasons-why-who-refuses-call-covid-19-outbreak-pandemic
The bonds were issued to support the World Bank’s PEF, and would only be triggered if certain criteria of a pandemic were met. If triggered, the bondholders would lose their money, the funds would be transferred to developing countries to fight the virus. To date, the bonds have yet to be triggered, as it’s increasingly becoming obvious that the WHO may stall calling Covid-19 outbreak a “pandemic” until after the bonds mature in July.100% of 100 million people = 100 million
1% fatality of 100 million people = 1 million
1% fatality of the U.S. population of 330 million = 3.3 million
This would happen in months, not years.
This 1% assumes your medical facilities are not overwhelmed, then the fatality rate would shoot up.
3% fatality of 100 million people = 3 million
3% fatality of 330 million people = 9.9 million
The U.S. lost about 400,000 military killed in action during WWII
The Soviet Union lost about 10,000,000 military killed in action during WWII
The U.S. loss from a 3% Covid-19 death rate is roughly what the Russian military lost fighting Nazi Germany for 5 years, but this would happen in several months.
Just to put things in perspective.
So how do you think the U.S. sickcare system will fare in this Covid-19 Clusterfuck.
This is the same system sickcare system that has produced a Diminishing life expectancy despite charging $11,000 per capita. It’s below 80 years, and has been dropping for the last three years.
Your kid falls off the swing set on the playground, you go to the ER and the kid gets 5 stitches and the bill is $9,000.
So how is a sickcare clown show like U.S. medicine going to do against the Plague?
Think it might get overwhelmed?
The approx 100,000 ICU beds, in TOTAL, for the U.S. are already full with, wait for it, ta-da…. Intensive Care Patients.
Where you gonna put them so the Covid Crowd can get care?
Math alert, 100,000 ICU beds against 5-15% of 330 million people possibly needing them.
Let’s be kind and say only 40% of the 330 million = 132 million and only 10% of them need ICU care.
10% of 132 million = 13.2 million ICU beds
Hmm, Houston, we have a problem.
Do you think the U.S. might be overwhelmed? Raise your hand!
Who you gonna call, Ghost Busters?
1% fatality of the U.S. population of 330 million = 3.3 million
but, as chett pointed out, the 1% fatality rate would apply only to those infected. my 8 million estimate is obviously wrong.
working with the lower bounds of 40% infected and 1% of those dying chett’s estimate of 1.3 million dead is accurate. given 70% infected and a 2% mortality rate one would expect 4.6 million dead.
as you point out, hospital capacity is a key limiting factor. going with the 40% infection rate and figuring that 20% of those will require hospitalization gives us 26.4 million to be admitted. i’ve read that the total number of u.s. hospital beds is under one million.
and i also stand corrected on the cdc, “Now is the time for businesses, hospitals, communities, and schools to begin preparing to respond to coronavirus.” is far beyond anything i pictured them saying.
From what I’ve read so far 5% of the infected need ICU beds, not regular ward beds
The majority of the one million beds can not provide ICU level care.
1% of infected die, assuming the system isn’t overwhelmed and assuming a mutation doesn’t jack up the mortality rate 2,3,4%
I also am not confident about the estimate of 40% of the population being infected, I’d plan for the 70% range
So how about the US homeless population, half of which are in California?
No one gives a crap about them now, what happens when they become an army of Typhoid Covid Marys.
World War Z?
Zombie Apocalypse?
Round them all up and put them where exactly?
Zerohedge headline just now:
San Francisco Declares State Of Emergency Over Covid-19;
Is that the same San Francisco with used needles and feces covering it’s streets?
70% infection rate of U.S. 330 million people = 231 million
Mortality currently rate trending at 3.4% of 231 million = 7.8 million mortality
save the soldiers
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/coronavirus-latest-updates-asia-stocks.htmlCoronavirus live updates: US soldier based in South Korea tests positive
PUBLISHED TUE, FEB 25 20207:06 PM ESTUPDATED 32 MIN AGO
Weizhen Tan
10:11 am: US soldier stationed in South Korea tests positive
A U.S. soldier stationed at Camp Carroll in South Korea has tested positive for the new coronavirus — marking the first time an American service member has been infected, according to the United States Forces Korea (USFK).Camp Carroll is around 22 km (13 miles) away from the South Korean city of Daegu, where a large number of infections in South Korea has been reported. The soldier also visited Camp Walker, which is around 4 km from Daegu.
The 23-year-old soldier is currently in self-quarantine at his off-base residence, the USFK said. It added that contact tracing is currently underway. — Weizhen Tan and Christine Wang
Watch for the attacks on USA soldiers
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/mapping-coronavirus-middle-east-9-countries-hit-alarm-raised-over-vulnerable-refugee-camps
Mapping Coronavirus In The Middle East: 9 Countries Hit As Alarm Raised Over Vulnerable Refugee Camps
Notice also that the United Arab Emirates now has at least 13 confirmed cases, in a worrisome sign in could hit the gulf region hard, given also it’s a major international transport hub straddling east Asia and the West.
Official government numbers of infected in the region are as follows:Bahrain (17 cases)
Egypt (1 case)
Iran (61 cases)
Iraq (5 cases)
Israel (2 cases)
Kuwait (3 cases)
Lebanon (1 case)
Oman (4 cases)
UAE (13 cases)
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